Thursday Evening Open Thread: Fun With Polls

Too early for polls to mean much about who will be our Democratic nominee next year, but there’s a certain entertainment value in seeing how people chose to interpret them. New poll from YouGov/the Economist, which was published online under the headline “Elizabeth Warren is now among Democratic front runners”


You’ll have to click on the poll picture to see the full image… but I would never have guessed there were almost as many ‘Biden or bust’ fans as, well, you know.

I suspect the Biden-or-bust people will change their minds if their guy doesn’t end as the front-runner, though. Call me a starry-eyed optimist!

Speaking of optimists:






64 replies
  1. 1
    Gozer says:

    Glad to see Sen. Warren moving up. Her and Sen. Harris are my top 2. I’d love to see a Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris ticket.

  2. 2
    Dan B says:

    Great to see Warren and Harris moving up this early! Sanders among males is baffling….. Oh, I’m male but not “normal”. The gay blogs seem to favor Harris and Warren. They also love Pete but it looks like his nimbers have plateaued, as I’d expected.

  3. 3
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Gozer: Why the fuck would you want one of them as VP? Moreover, why would either of them take the job? They would each have more power and influence in the Senate than they would as VP. I don’t mean to pick on you, but I am getting really tired of people on our side trying to find an executive branch job for every Dem politician that they like. We need good people in all levels and and branches of government.

  4. 4
    Mary G says:

    The man who Twitler loves is a nasty piece of work:

    JUST IN: North Korea envoy executed over failed Trump-Kim summit (Chosun)— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) May 30, 2019

  5. 5
    arrieve says:

    I think Warren’s numbers are only going to go up after the debates. It’s a crowded field — and a lot of really good candidates — but she does have a gift for explaining issues in a cogent easy to understand way. And she’s got a plan for that!

    Also, although I have made small donations to several of the campaigns, hers is the only one that reached out to me and invited me to volunteer. There are already a lot of campaign activities happening in New York, including a pre-debate picnic in Central Park. I’d be happy with most of the Dems, but the fact that she’s already so organized impressed me.

  6. 6
    raven says:

    @Mary G: “The article is from April 25 and no one has verified it since. At the time, Chosun warned that “it is possible the regime is deliberately spreading misinformation.”

  7. 7
    Mary G says:

    So much winning:

    EXCL: @realDonaldTrump's lossmaking Scottish resort is paying a UK Govt public body just £100 a month to lease buildings at Turnberry's world-famous lighthouse, while charging guests £1,400 a night to stay in the landmark. My @TheScotsman investigation: https://t.co/IbOEhxoy7y— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) May 30, 2019

  8. 8
    Mary G says:

    @raven: Good, sorry. I should have checked.

  9. 9
  10. 10
    debbie says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Seconded. Congress is not a sloppy second.

  11. 11
    rikyrah says:

    Michelle Obama Posts Throwback Photo of Pre-Teen Malia, Sasha During Visit to Sesame Street

    https://people.com/politics/michelle-obama-throwback-photo-sasha-malia-at-sesame-street/

  12. 12
    debbie says:

    @rikyrah:

    Wow, 50 years!!!

  13. 13
    Baud says:

    A “considering supporting” poll will be even more of a name recognition poll than a regular poll.

  14. 14

    Looks like a general purge of North Korean diplomats working on the US talks. But a worthwhile caveat.

  15. 15

    @Cheryl Rofer: This is probably why Trump’s special envoy to North Korea, Steve Biegun, hasn’t been able to get any meetings lately.

  16. 16
    plato says:

    @rikyrah: 10 million copies sold already? Go FLOTUS.

  17. 17
    dr. bloor says:

    Most satisfying have been the MSM stories suggesting that We’re Over Bernie, Already. He’s going to hate not getting the kid gloves treatment this election cycle.

    Are any pollsters doing ranked choice polling? With everyone and my Uncle Sid running, it would be very interesting information. It would also kill the inevitability narrative for Biden, as he’s in the 30’s but not picking up much of anyone not already for him as the field thins.

  18. 18
    debbie says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Any idea what the critical error was? It seemed like Kim was onto Trump’s bullshit from the beginning.

  19. 19

    @debbie: It could just be that Kim felt that the Hanoi summit was a failure and needed scapegoats. That would be my first guess.

    Next would be that Kim is probably as hard to figure out as Trump is, and they just didn’t get it right.

  20. 20

    Here’s something from North Korea’s official newspaper, FWIW:

    North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary on Thursday that “Acting like one is revering the Leader in front (of others) but dreaming of something else when one turns around, is an anti-Party, anti-revolutionary act that has thrown away the moral fidelity toward the Leader, and such people will not avoid the stern judgment of the revolution.”

    “There are traitors and turncoats who only memorize words of loyalty toward the Leader and even change according to the trend of the time,” the commentary said.

  21. 21
    debbie says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Scapegoating sounds like the logical reason, but I’d bet Trump will take this to be proof that Kim really, really likes him.

  22. 22
    Baud says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Trump is so stealing that for the next SOTU.

  23. 23
    debbie says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Honestly, that is frightening.

  24. 24
    TenguPhule says:

    @Mary G: Trump’s equivalent is John Bolton.

    One can hope.

  25. 25
    chopper says:

    @Baud:

    the leader is good! the leader is great! we surrender our will as of this date!

  26. 26
    Felanius Kootea says:

    @debbie: He already fell in love with Kim, he said. Maybe this will get him to propose at their next meeting.

    @TenguPhule: Bolton is so lucky he works for someone too chicken to do his own firing.

  27. 27
    Chyron HR says:

    Well, congratulations to everyone who quite literally burned down the country so that Messiah Bernie wouldn’t have to wait until 2024 to run again. Was it worth it?

  28. 28

  29. 29
    Sab says:

    Has anyone else around here read Suki Kim’s book “Without You There Is No Us” about teaching in North Korea?

  30. 30
    Felanius Kootea says:

    @Sab: I haven’t but I should. She was a year ahead of me in college and we had a mutual friend.

  31. 31
    tobie says:

    Still rooting for Beto. He hasn’t produced as many proposals as Warren, but the ones he has are very comprehensive on issues I care about a lot (climate change, immigration, reproductive rights). I also like his courage in speaking out about systemic racism in the US even when campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. This is not a knock on Warren. I’m glad to see how she’s elevated the debate in the Democratic field.

  32. 32
    tobie says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Hoo-boy. I shudder if this is true. Kim Jong-Un is like a walking killer virus. The “like” in this sentence may be inappropriate. The ‘walking killer virus’ description is not a metaphor.

  33. 33
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Chyron HR: did you think I wasn’t going to see this post?

  34. 34
    karen marie says:

    @debbie: The Daily Mail (I know, I know) reported that the envoy and others were executed for having “sold” information to the US government at or before the last meeting between Kim and the Fuckwit-in-Chief.

  35. 35
    Citizen Alan says:

    Conspiracy theory time: I am absolutely convinced that at some point, Kim Jong Un was replaced by a body double. I really don’t think the present iteration looks at all like he did when he took over in 2011.

  36. 36
    Sab says:

    @Felanius Kootea: It’s a sweet but scary book.

  37. 37
    debbie says:

    @karen marie:

    Interesting and kinda plausible.

  38. 38
    tobie says:

    @Citizen Alan: Do you have pictures? I can’t remember what he looked like in 2011, though I recall that even then his haircut was strange.

  39. 39
  40. 40
    Harbison says:

    Listen to the women. Listen to blacks.

    Biden has commanding lead among blacks and women.

    Polls this early are meaningless …

  41. 41
    debbie says:

    @Citizen Alan:

    It’s the same guy. His head has gained a lot of weight, just like the rest of him.

  42. 42
    tobie says:

    @Citizen Alan: I’m going to attribute the changes to massive weight gain for the moment but your hypothesis is definitely interesting.

  43. 43
    Bobby Thomson says:

    I can’t envision a single person who voted for Clinton sitting out if Biden isn’t nominated.

  44. 44
    karen marie says:

    @Citizen Alan: None of us look like we did in 2011. That’s nine years ago.

  45. 45
    MP says:

    @karen marie: Pretty sure I’ve visibly aged since last Tuesday. Such are the times.

  46. 46
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @tobie: Actually, given what I said above, the VP position or a cabinet gig is a good spot for Beto and/or Mayor Pete.* Being from Texas and Indiana, their chances to move up through state-wide elective office is rather circumscribed. Most of the women running have alternate paths to power if they don’t get the presidential nomination this time around.

    *I think this also has some application to the Castro brothers as well.

  47. 47
    Chyron HR says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    I don’t think about you at all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  48. 48
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @karen marie: I look better. Well, not literally. Literally, I look much worse.

  49. 49
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Steve in the ATL: How long is the witch’s curse supposed to last anyway?

  50. 50
    boatboy_srq says:

    Notice the “Democrats considering one candidate” item? That’s what Wilmerbots look like. EVERYONE ELSE has taken note of Biden, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg if no more than those four. But Wilmerbots cannot conceive that another candidate will approach Saint Wilmer’s innate popular working-class appeal (much, no doubt, as they cannot grasp the non-whiteness and non-maleness of the libprog electorate). So OF COURSE they’re not looking around the field this year and thinking “Gosh, there are a lot of good people in the running this time around,” because they don’t see anyone but Saint Wilmer.

  51. 51
    boatboy_srq says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: There was an interesting bit of Interwebwisdom I saw a few days ago (I forget where). The only way to get the misogynist vote as a woman candidate would be to have a female running mate. Reasoning: a female principal candidate with a male running mate puts the running mate in a subordinate position. Man subordinate to Woman. Sexists can’t stand that. But if both are women somehow that makes it different, and potentially acceptable.

    No, I don’t understand it either. But it makes less non-sense than other theories I’ve encountered. And no, I don’t think Dems should be courting the misogynist vote for any reason other than Everyone Against The Russians GOTea.

  52. 52
    B.B.A. says:

    Biden? BIDEN?! If you’ll excuse me I’ll be banging my head against the wall for the next five years.

  53. 53
    Martin says:

    @B.B.A.: Black voters don’t have the luxury of voting for a candidate that can’t beat Trump. If they think that candidate is Biden, they’ll vote Biden. It is the job of the other candidates to disprove that assertion. That’s why Hillary was leading Obama going into 2008. Obama had to convince them he could win. He did, and they switched candidates, and that didn’t happen until 6 months from now.

  54. 54

    Too early for polls to mean much

    Yes you could have stopped there. Yes I’m quoting you out of context. Yes I did that deliberately.
    My sample set is three. My conclusion is 100% Yes responses. My confidence rating is 95%, there’s a possibility I misquoted you.

  55. 55
  56. 56
    Immanentize says:

    @Steve in the ATL:
    Very happy you are on the clock!

  57. 57
    B.B.A. says:

    @Martin: Biden can’t beat Trump.

  58. 58
    satby says:

    So anyone else watching Fleabag on Amazon?

  59. 59
    satby says:

    @B.B.A.: sure he can. In a choice between Trump and Biden sane people vote for Biden and he wins.
    Insane people will vote for Stein or write in Wilmer or whatever, but the last few years have clarified quite a lot even for non voters.

  60. 60
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @B.B.A.: @B.B.A.: Panic away. It’s a year and a half before the fucking election. It’s more than six months before the first primary. So go ahead and panic about who’s leading in the polls today. Jesus fucking Christ.

  61. 61
    waysel says:

    @satby: Yes.

  62. 62
    satby says:

    @waysel: I am loving it! You?

  63. 63
    Immanentize says:

    @satby: just started.

  64. 64
    stan says:

    Fleabag is brilliant. That and Catastrophe and the best series we’ve seen in a long time.

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