Saturday Morning Open Thread: Numbers Gaming







153 replies
  1. 1
    Mary G says:

    I do love watching Wilmer going lower and lower.

  2. 2
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Blech.

  3. 3
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    In decidedly Not Blech news: Woman found alive after two weeks in Hawaii forest park

    A woman has been found alive in a forest on Hawaii’s Maui island after going missing more than two weeks ago. Amanda Eller was found injured in the Makawao Forest Reserve, the Maui News reported on Friday. A family spokeswoman, Sarah Haynes, said she spoke with Eller’s father John, who told her that Eller was being airlifted to safety.
    ……………………………..
    Cantellops said she was in the bed of a creek with waterfalls on either side. It is unknown how or to what extent Eller was injured, as well as how she survived until she was found.

    The Honolulu newspaper also reported that a photo was posted to a Facebook page tracking the search, showing a smiling Eller with what appeared to be injuries to her face and dirt on her clothing. The photo shows Eller surrounded by Cantellops, Berquist and Helmers.

  4. 4
    NotMax says:

    Weekends are for kicking back and relaxing. In that vein –

    Need a grin? Spend a minute looking at a couple of things that never caught on. And no, these are not from some precursor to The Onion, these were actually available on the market. #1#2

  5. 5
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Bernie Wouldna Won

  6. 6
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: I had seen the car record player before, but not the radio newspaper receiver.

  7. 7
    Baud says:

    That Yang and Gabbard are higher than Castro is sad.

  8. 8
    NotMax says:

    On a more serious note, perhaps others here more attuned to economic statistics can help shed some light. While realizing it is a single data set, it appears to be worrisome and indicative that we’re operating more and more within what I call the Hollow Economy (emphasis added).

    The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 50.6 in May, the lowest level since September 2009, according to IHS Markit.

    U.S. overall business activity growth also faltered to a three-year low, the data says.

    “Growth of business activity slowed sharply in May as trade war worries and increased uncertainty dealt a further blow to order book growth and business confidence,” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist.
    [snip]
    “The slowdown has been led by manufacturing, but shows increasing signs of spreading to services… Source

  9. 9
    Baud says:

    Bernie Sanders support among voters age 50+

    May: 4%
    April: 10%
    March: 19%

    So the youngs are propping him up? That’s sad.

  10. 10
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: It is the inevitable result of chaos at the top.

    ETA trickle down economics

  11. 11
    Baud says:

    when someone at the cookout asks you who you like for 2020, tell them

    Baud! 2020!

  12. 12
    Raven says:

    My bride has a friend flying in on the redeye from the bay area for the weekend. Apparently she just spllt with her partner of 30 years so that should be interesting. Oh, did I mention the record heat?

  13. 13
    satby says:

    @Raven: sounds like the perfect time for you to go fishing.
    @OzarkHillbilly: 😘

  14. 14
    satby says:

    @Baud: the youngs have always propped him up, but as they grow they gain enough wisdom to notice he hasn’t changed his routine in four years. Nothing screams”old” like that.

  15. 15
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    For nearly 40 years, whenever someone tries to go off about the (so-called) magic of trickle down economics I calmly ask them to explain to this lunkhead how that differs from dogs being arbitrarily tossed scraps from the dinner table.

    So far, not a one of them has been able successfully to do so.

  16. 16
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Raven: Talk about Blech, Ucky Blech.

  17. 17
    Raven says:

    @satby: IT”S TOO HOT TO FISH!
    I will wander out to the LZ Friendly Memorial Day Campout. The membership is fading and they are starting to consider selling the property and buildings so it should be even more depressing than usual.

  18. 18
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: I always ask them how it differs from being pissed on by the rich.

  19. 19
    rikyrah says:

    Good Morning, Everyone😄😄😄

  20. 20
    satby says:

    @Raven: that sounds… fun?

  21. 21
    Baud says:

    @Raven: Chinese hoax.

    @rikyrah: Good morning.

  22. 22
    satby says:

    @rikyrah: Good morning 😊

    It’s rained pretty much every day for what seems like two weeks. Going to storm today and maybe tomorrow. I’m thinking about just harvesting my grass at this point. Should be able to get a couple of bales out of it.

  23. 23
    NotMax says:

    @Raven

    Memories of marching for what seemed hours under a stark and unforgiving sun as part of a Cub Scout troop in the local Memorial Day parade, then being rewarded at the end with hot dogs which had been boiling for who knows how long – probably since dawn, and the grayest franks one has ever seen – and warm lemonade.

  24. 24
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    That would be stream down economics.

    ;)

    @satby

    Broke records for high temps here for most days of the past week. Up into the mid 90s. So far, hottest May ever, and it’s not over yet.

  25. 25
    rikyrah says:

    Elections matter

    Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) Tweeted:
    BIG NEWS on disaster aid

    Puerto Rico has reportedly secured b/w $900 million and $1.4 billion in additional funding (estimates vary widely rn), per aides

    In February, The White House initially wanted PR to give ~$0~ additional money to Puerto Rico

    Huge shift due to House Ds https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1131630799080574977?s=17

  26. 26
    JPL says:

    @Raven: I have a house full of company and the heat is relentless. My old Air Conditioner is struggling to keep up.. ugh

  27. 27
    Raven says:

    @satby: Yea, I’ve been a member since I’ve lived down here so there are some old buddies I like to see so I do it for a few hours. While it is still pretty alcohol centered most people don’t get hammered like they used to.

    This is from the website:

    “Of great concern is the dwindling number of members, lack of new members and member support of the organization in maintaining the grounds and structures. Old soldiers do die and that is of great concern.

    All members should try to attend these meetings. The advice and suggestions of each member is needed so a possible solution can be made to avoid the demise of our lands. Or all the effort in the past will not be lost.”

  28. 28
    Raven says:

    @JPL: Yikes!

  29. 29
    WereBear says:

    @NotMax: I’ve seen the highway record player. As if.

    No wonder 8 tracks (briefly) caught on.

  30. 30
    rikyrah says:

    Big Boss (@escapedmatrix) Tweeted:
    Picking up trash at your residence while black, will get 8 police guns drawn on you in America.

    This man almost died. Wake up America. #SurvingAmericasPolice
    https://t.co/vZUpyoS5a0 https://twitter.com/escapedmatrix/status/1131677605135101953?s=17

  31. 31
    rikyrah says:

    Malcolm Nance (@MalcolmNance) Tweeted:
    WARNING: We are in grave danger. Trumps says he declassified all allied intelligence fm FBI, GCHQ, MI6, AVID & ASIS for AG Barr to get revenge. This is the end of the 5-EYES relationship. No one will EVER share intelligence with us again. #Imoeach to Save our Nation’s Security. https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1131965411266895872?s=17

  32. 32
    bystander says:

    My theory: Barr is twitler’s willing dupe in releasing confidential information that benefits Putin in some way. Doing Putin’s bidding but no telltale twitler fingerprints.

    I haven’t worked out the entire theory yet, so feel free to speculate.

  33. 33
    NotMax says:

    @WereBear

    Also found while poking about –

    Why is the PIN for modern ATMs four digits and not more?

    After languishing in oblivion, the ATM was at long last made feasible by Scottish inventor John Shepherd-Barron who developed the first fully electronic teller machine. This device was first installed at the Barclays Bank Enfield branch in North London.

    Mr Shepherd-Barron’s used special cheques impregnated with trace amounts of radioactive carbon-14 that could be matched against a personal identification number (PIN) entered on a keypad. At first this PIN number was to have six digits. The number was reduced to four after it was found that Mrs Shepherd-Barron could not readily manage to memorize a longer string of digits. She is owed a debt of immense gratitude. Source

  34. 34

    @NotMax:

    Why is the PIN for modern ATMs four digits and not more?

    That’s not true.

  35. 35
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @rikyrah: Hey, do you have any idea the horrific damage that can be done by a blackman with a trash clamper???? Those things are deadly, unlike an AR-15 in the hands of a true red WHITE and blue patriot.

  36. 36
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @bystander:

    Barr is twitler’s willing dupe

    He’s not a dupe. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

  37. 37
    rikyrah says:

    Uh huh 😒🤨

    Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) Tweeted:
    Facebook is very responsive to my office when I want to talk about federal legislation and suddenly get marbles in their mouths when we ask them about dealing with a fake video. It’s not that they cannot solve this; it’s that they refuse to do what is necessary. https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1131992365609177094?s=17

  38. 38
    Amir Khalid says:

    @NotMax:
    ?? ATMs here require a 6-digit PIN.

  39. 39
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax:

    The number was reduced to four after it was found that Mrs Shepherd-Barron could not readily manage to memorize a longer string of digits.

    Hmmmmmm… Most people in America had no problem at all memorizing dozens of 7 digit numbers back in the pre-cell phone days. Hell, I still remember my parents home phone and that one has been gone for 13 years.

  40. 40
    Amir Khalid says:

    @NotMax:
    Also too, you didn’t say “PIN number” and “ATM machine”.
    //

  41. 41
    WereBear says:

    @NotMax: That is absolutely hilarious. Thanks.

  42. 42
    Amir Khalid says:

    @rikyrah:
    There are countries, not as free as America where, the police don’t do this.

  43. 43

    @Amir Khalid: We say that in ‘Merica, land of the free.

  44. 44
    rikyrah says:

    Mr. Weeks 🤴🏾 (@MrDane1982) Tweeted:
    Ms Zero Fucks Hillary Clinton,

    She defend Nancy Pelosi against Donald Trump stating,

    “Now it is sexist trash,” she said, which was met with cheers and applause. “But it is also a sign that Trump is running scared.”

    This is why stand with Pelosi, Hillary Clinton got her back. https://twitter.com/MrDane1982/status/1132073065427419136?s=17

  45. 45
    TS (the original) says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    ETA trickle down economics

    Defined by real economists as: Lets take the money and run. None of the last tax reductions trickled down. Much went to shareholders via buy-backs and the rest to top level employees, no doubt as bonuses for their great work.

    trickle down is the great economic myth brought to you by right wing economists. A tax reduction or bonus to the lowest paid workers is the best way to generate economic growth but that doesn’t fit the republican theory of “keep the workers poor”.

  46. 46
    rikyrah says:

    😠😠😠

    Zack Ford (@ZackFord) Tweeted:
    If you haven’t been paying attention, Trump has now undone every rule the Obama administration put in place to protect transgender people from discrimination: https://t.co/rl9ltciV4l https://twitter.com/ZackFord/status/1132039732303716353?s=17

  47. 47
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @TS (the original): Hey now, wait a minute, didn’t you get your frozen pizza this week? Man, I’d complain to the management if I were you.

  48. 48
    rikyrah says:

    Huh???😒😒😒

    The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) Tweeted:
    Mount Everest has gotten so crowded that climbers are perishing in the traffic jams https://t.co/YaOUte8z3a https://t.co/JsPdLXW3Wi https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1132238897449263104?s=17

  49. 49
    Kay says:

    JM Rieger
    ‏Verified account
    @RiegerReport
    Follow Follow @RiegerReport
    More
    NEW WaPo whip count:
    – 40 House lawmakers now support at least opening an impeachment inquiry into President Trump
    – 17 House Democrats joined the call for an inquiry this week

    I think it has to be higher than that for Pelosi to do it. Of course, to get it higher it’s perfectly legit to lobby them to impeach but this isn’t a majority position yet, so whether you think it’s “Pelosi holding it up” or “Pelosi listening to her members” she has plenty of company on the “not yet” side.

  50. 50
    Kay says:

    I also think, as a practical matter, “starting an impeachment inquiry” means “impeach” because they have enough to impeach and they know it, so they (rightly) believe there’s no difference between these two questions. I just think making a distinction between “start an inquiry” and “impeach” is a false middle ground. If you want them to impeach then you’re all in on having impeachment be the entire focus, because it will be. Which is fine! But there’s no middle ground. A decision on one is a decision on the other.

  51. 51
    germy says:

    Adam Silverman would enjoy this clip:

    This Seb Gorka video is not a parody. Really. Seriously. pic.twitter.com/oFn2vi06l7— Charlie Sykes (@SykesCharlie) May 24, 2019

  52. 52
    Chyron HR says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch:

    The neoliberal establishment is rigging the polls by letting Democrats say they’re going to vote for other candidates.

  53. 53
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    There is no better lobbying tool than investigations.

  54. 54
  55. 55
    Amir Khalid says:

    @rikyrah:
    As I understand, there is a years-long waiting list for permits to ascend Everest. And the Roof Of The World has a long-standing issue with cleaning up the trash left by all the climbers.

  56. 56
    debbie says:

    @rikyrah:

    But isn’t it all on hold now because that Texas rep refused to join in unanimous consent?

  57. 57
    Amir Khalid says:

    From the Guardian, a sobering read for those who have animals in their care.

  58. 58
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    I think there has to be at least a recognition that the elected members who have publicly supported it are not a majority. This matters in a legislative body. You can’t say “it’s in the constitution!” as a reason to impeach and ignore that it’s a minority position among members. They’re not an executive branch constitutional office. They execute only with a majority- since Pelosi understands that “starting impeachment inquiry” means “impeach” what she’s looking at is not enough votes to impeach. You all know her well enough by now to know she doesn’t bring it unless she has the votes.

  59. 59
    randy khan says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Hmmmmmm… Most people in America had no problem at all memorizing dozens of 7 digit numbers back in the pre-cell phone days. Hell, I still remember my parents home phone and that one has been gone for 13 years.

    Phone numbers are broken up into blocks of 3 and 4 numbers in the U.S. Some of that was accidental, but some of it was intentional. Of course, in other countries numbers are not arranged the same way, so that suggests that 4 isn’t a natural break point. IIRC, the magic number for easy memorization is 7 digits, with larger numbers being meaningfully harder to memorize.

    Probably more relevant to the ATM PIN question (and this comes from work I did on telephone numbers years ago), there’s research that indicates that you have about a 1% chance of pressing the wrong button on a number keypad for each number you have to press. So a 6-digit PIN would have roughly 48% more erroneous entries than a 4-digit PIN.

  60. 60
    SRW1 says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch:

    Bernie Wouldna Won

    He couldda been a contender.

  61. 61
    Brachiator says:

    @NotMax:

    While realizing it is a single data set, it appears to be worrisome and indicative that we’re operating more and more within what I call the Hollow Economy (emphasis added).

    Here’s the thing:

    U.S. overall business activity growth also faltered to a three-year low, the data says.

    “Growth of business activity slowed sharply in May as trade war worries and increased uncertainty dealt a further blow to order book growth and business confidence,” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist.

    You might be right. Who knows. You can’t tell anything from a single data point. And the economist quoted is just making shit up. But since journalism abhors a quotation vacuum, somebody’s opinion must be noted.

  62. 62
    NotMax says:

    Hey, rikyrah (and everyone else).

    Found on Prime, Rescue Men: The Story of the Pea Island Lifesavers. A historical niche of dedication and heroism.

  63. 63
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    What if she knows she doesn’t have the votes to impeach? In the House? Let’s imagine Donald Trump’s glee if Nancy Pelosi goes forward on the advice of political commenters and then Democrats (for whatever reason- good reasons, political reasons, cowardice, I don’t care- pick) cannot muster a majority in the House?

    Could that be what she means when she says Trump wants this? She has 40, total, publicly. She needs more than that.

  64. 64
    cleek says:

    FFS, there are 8 months until the first primary vote is cast.

    polls tell us nothing about who the nominee will be at this point.

  65. 65
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Kay: It would seem that even a box of rocks such as trump can recognize the fact that all the current investigations have the same end point as their collective goal: him out of office. Whether by impeachment or a lost election it doesn’t really matter.

  66. 66
    NotMax says:

    @randy khan

    Strictly anecdotal, I have always better remembered phone numbers from when they began with two letters of the exchange than since they became all numerals.

  67. 67
    Immanentize says:

    @randy khan:
    In the US most banks allow PINs up to 7 or 8 digits. But in Europe, the standard bank PIN is still 4. How do I know this? Went to Sweden with a 7 digit PIN and could not use the ATMs.

  68. 68
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @randy khan:

    IIRC, the magic number for easy memorization is 7 digits,

    Yes, that is what I have read. It may have been just luck that our ph #s are 7 digit, or it may be by design. I can’t recall which.

  69. 69
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    Absolutely, Trump wants this. He wants to be Peter O’Toole hanging on his cross in The Ruling Class. And until investigations reveal incontrovertible proof of obstruction and criminality, Dems will only be playing into his hands and, even worse, into his second term.

  70. 70
    bystander says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: You’re right. I accidentally heard Danielle Pletka on MTP say that no one has any reason to believe Barr will do anything improper with the material. Even The Toddler had to object to that idiocy.

  71. 71
    Xavier Onassis says:

    @Baud: I’m guessing those results are based on very small numbers, which are statistically unreliable.x

  72. 72
    Xavier Onassis says:

    @satby: Wilmer hasn’t changed his routine in four decades. But it’s a routine I happen to like.

  73. 73
    Immanentize says:

    @NotMax:
    I once had a beautiful Volvo P-1800e (like this pic)
    Bought it from a guy in South Florida who sorta collected cars. He got it for his wife. She didn’t like it so much….

    Anyhoo, he had a 1957 red Chrysler 300 convertible (white top) that he was rightly proud of. It had an under-dash record player. He told me that Chrysler supplied/sold the records as they were odd sized 33&1/3 or something. The one he had was converted by the original owner to a straight up 45 player which I am sure was a popular hack. He said, there was no way these things really worked when the car was driving — but they were great for parking!

  74. 74
    Duke of Clay says:

    @NotMax: Thank you, Mrs. Shepherd-Barron. I too have a digit-span of four.
    @OzarkHillbilly
    I can’t (never could) remember phone numbers. I can only remember my own phone number because I requested a repeat of the same number four times. Smart phones have been a god-send because it remembers important numbers for me.
    Otherwise, I have an excellent memory and managed to earn two masters degrees and a doctorate.

  75. 75
    germy says:

    In a CNN Exclusive, Monika Bickert, Facebook VP for Product Policy and Counterterrorism, explains why the social media site hasn't removed a manipulated video of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. https://t.co/tr9QRDcAZE pic.twitter.com/fOeMQaepSu— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) May 25, 2019

  76. 76
    SFAW says:

    @SRW1:

    He couldda been a contender.

    Instead of a bum, which is what he is, Charlie SRW1

    Of course, there are still a few persons who remember the Brooklyn Bums with fondness.

  77. 77
    Brachiator says:

    @cleek:

    polls tell us nothing about who the nominee will be at this point

    You’re right. Polls mean nothing at this point, and pundit navel gazing about polls is especially meaningless. And yet even though people complain about political horse race analysis, they love indulging in political horse race analysis.

    But I will note that I understand why people enjoy seeing Wilmer decline or stall in the polls.

    That said, l liked this Twitter response

    donald’s view:
    Prison 48% (+10 years)
    His Majesty 38%

  78. 78
    SFAW says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I remember hearing it was by design. The 3 + 4 thing mentioned by randy khan being the reason/justification, I think.

  79. 79
    Immanentize says:

    @NotMax:
    Murray Hill!

  80. 80
    Xavier Onassis says:

    @TS (the original): We tried trickle down for 40 years and it didn’t.

  81. 81
    Immanentize says:

    @cleek: @Brachiator:
    I think the CW that early polling is “meaningless and not predictive” is maybe just a bit of bullshit?. I understand why people don’t want them to be, but the evidence is otherwise.

  82. 82
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    You guys are bluffing. Saying “we will have the votes when we take the vote!” is based on absolutely nothing. Shouldn’t there be some kind of counting and individual lobbying of members going on rather than these broad assurances that Pelosi is standing in the way of the majority of the D House- the majority no one has identified? She carefully lines up votes for much less important things than “impeaching the President” but in this one instance she would go forward without a clear majority? Why would she do that?

  83. 83
    Brachiator says:

    @randy khan:

    IIRC, the magic number for easy memorization is 7 digits, with larger numbers being meaningfully harder to memorize.

    This can’t be true. We stumbled into this number of digits, phone numbers now include area codes, and in the early days, phone numbers included alphabetical prefixes.

    I always had trouble remembering my own phone number because I never called myself.

    And this thread brought to mind one of the few phone numbers that I have never forgotten.

    Beechwood 4 5789.
    You can call me up and have a date
    Any old time
    — The Marvelettes

    https://youtu.be/Us18AUBM2RI

  84. 84
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    I listened to a (former) lawyer for the federal government who is some kind of pundit now and then an actual pundit on public radio, both pro- impeachment and I was struck by how there was this assumption that a majority of D House members support it. There’s no evidence to support that and some evidence to indicate it simply isn’t true. When we’re lobbying for something we count votes, right? Why not now? Why do I hear this omitted middle step between “40 members” and “a majority”? Are you even at the senate process yet? Don’t you have to clear the House with it first?

  85. 85
    debbie says:

    these broad assurances that Pelosi is standing in the way of the majority of the D House … Why would she do that?

    That’s the narrative Trump would have the country believe. Big, bad … Crazy Nancy!

  86. 86
    Immanentize says:

    @Kay: My understanding is that Clyburn Is a pretty damn good Whip. He knows the numbers. Which is why the leadership ‘struggle’ was so much theater. I can see why Pelosi et al don’t want to be talking about the actual caucus vote numbers because they might give Trump a sense of winning. The current situation is what she wants — growing pressure to impeach in a divided caucus but looking like she is filled with restraint.

  87. 87
  88. 88
    tokyokie says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I can still remember the time and temperature phone number for Tulsa — (918) LU2-4381 — and I haven’t lived in that area code since 1971.

  89. 89
  90. 90

    @Kay: LOL. I responded to a Twitter comment last night that was claiming that most Dems supported impeachment by asking about the numbers. Ended the conversation, but I think in a good way. It looked to me like the person I was talking to simply hadn’t thought about that, and did when I asked the question,

  91. 91
    different-church-lady says:

    And, remember: when someone at the cookout asks you who you like for 2020, tell them the candidate you like the most none of your goddamned business, now eat your potato salad.

  92. 92
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Duke of Clay: Heh, congratulations! You are the exception to the rule! ;-)

    Memory, being a muscle that needs exercise, is now failing me on the 7 digit scale because of cell phones, tho important #s I can still retain quite easily.

    @NotMax: Same here, Yorktown 6, Taylor 1… I don’t recall any of the other exchanges.

  93. 93
    NotMax says:

    @tokyokie

    the time and temperature phone number

    Where lived during the fifties and sixties all one had to remember was to dial NERVOUS. Never did bother trying to remember the digits.

  94. 94
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @SFAW: I thought so, I just can’t be certain.

  95. 95
    different-church-lady says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Ended the conversation

    I wish that trick would work on all conversations.

  96. 96
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @tokyokie: Oh gawd, time and temp, that rings a bell!

  97. 97
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    It looked to me like the person I was talking to simply hadn’t thought about that, and did when I asked the question,

    Definitely not a Republican as they hardly ever stop and think.

  98. 98
    different-church-lady says:

    @germy:

    On Friday, the company said one of its fact checkers had said the video was false.
    Because of that determination, Facebook will downrank the video, meaning it will show up in fewer users’ news feeds. The video will remain on the platform, however.

    Facebook must die.

  99. 99
    Brachiator says:

    @Immanentize:

    I think the CW that early polling is “meaningless and not predictive” is maybe just a bit of bullshit?. I understand why people don’t want them to be, but the evidence is otherwise

    So, if you do a deep analysis of a year or more of polling data, you might get some interesting data. And still Silver and maybe political junkies here are hung up on a need for prophecy and prediction. We want to know who will when before any actual voting happens. Hell, some people seem to prefer polling to voting.

    Still, no one is doing the deeper analysis that 538 talks about. And even here there are weasel words and equivocation.

    But let’s look at one of the conclusions.

    Those polling at 35 percent or higher rarely lost the nomination, regardless of whether they attained those heights in the first or second half of the year. They also, on average, won more than half the national primary vote.

    “Rarely” tells us nothing. There ain’t no such thing as a “national primary vote.”

    But even ignoring all this, no one in the poll cited is polling at 35 percent or higher. But it might be interesting to take this as an indicator and see how it might apply in the future.

  100. 100
    Immanentize says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    “Ding”

  101. 101
  102. 102
    germy says:

    @NotMax: I like the old pre-code movies where one would simply pickup the receiver and bark at the operator.

  103. 103
    Kathleen says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: If Democrat were in office this would be headline story.

  104. 104
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    Even in the smartphone age, you can still dial up the time in hours, minutes, seconds

    Turns out, every year millions of people still call the number to get the time. That’s right: Even though 77 percent of all Americans now own a smartphone, most of which literally display the time around the clock, more than 3 million people called the USNO number in 2015 to obtain the correct time.

  105. 105
    O. Felix Culpa says:

    @Kay:

    She carefully lines up votes for much less important things than “impeaching the President” but in this one instance she would go forward without a clear majority? Why would she do that?

    Oh you, with your *reason* and *logic* and all. //

  106. 106
    different-church-lady says:

    Dammit, people, impeachment is a process, not a trigger you pull.

    The best thing Pelosi can do right now is keep people interested in the idea of impeachment — the idea that there’s a sword of over Trump’s head. “Maybe it will fall on him, maybe it won’t, it’s really hard to say.” Little by little the belief that Trump is deserving of impeachment will take hold.

  107. 107
    Ben Cisco says:

    @randy khan: I remember the last NYC number my parents had. We left in 1973. Weird.

  108. 108
    different-church-lady says:

    @NotMax: You’re saying the fax machine never caught on?

  109. 109
    tokyokie says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I just tried the number, and it no longer works. I remember trying it a couple of years ago, and it was still good, but I guess whatever bank sponsored it decided that it wasn’t a good investment.

  110. 110
    O. Felix Culpa says:

    @different-church-lady:

    the idea that there’s a sword of over Trump’s head. “Maybe it will fall on him, maybe it won’t, it’s really hard to say.”

    And just think of how that must mess with Dolt45’s mind [sic]! Delicious!

  111. 111
    Kathleen says:

    @TS (the original): Aided and abetted by the Furrowed Brows at NPR, PBS, CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN, etc etc etc.

  112. 112
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: DOH! I still find myself looking at bank clocks for the time, my excuse is that my cell phone is buried in a pocket of my pants.

  113. 113
    Brachiator says:

    @tokyokie:

    I can still remember the time and temperature phone number for Tulsa

    From a 2017 story

    Quick, try this: Dial 202-762-1401. Trust us, it’s not a scam, but you may be surprised by what you hear.

    That’s the number for the time-by-phone service offered by the U.S. Naval Observatory. Punch (or, more accurately for many, touch) it into your phone, and in a few seconds, if you’re of a certain age, you are transported back to a time when just about everyone was familiar with the phrase “At the tone the time will be…”.

    Turns out, every year millions of people still call the number to get the time. That’s right: Even though 77 percent of all Americans now own a smartphone, most of which literally display the time around the clock, more than 3 million people called the USNO number in 2015 to obtain the correct time.

    “There’s an interesting sociology to it,” Demetrios Matsakis, chief scientist for time services at the Naval Observatory, told the Atlantic last summer. “They don’t call as much on the weekend, and the absolute minimum time they call is Christmas. On big holidays, people don’t care about the time. But we get a big flood of calls when we switch to daylight [saving] time and back.”

    People who call the service are upholding a tradition dating back to the infancy of telephone technologywhen anyone could simply pick up the telephone and ask a human operator for the time. Throughout the 20th century, telephone companies — first Ma Bell, and then various telecommunications companies that sprung up after the Bell Companies were broken up in 1984 — offered services that offered callers the current time and temperature. The time was usually updated in 5- or 10-second increments, punctuated by the distinctive beep tone that put a fleeting mark on it. The numbers were simple and easy to remember. In New York City, residents dialed Meridian 1212. In Baltimore, the number was 844-1212. Out west, the service was called POPCORN, because in order to reach it you spelled the word on your phone keypad.

    Callers were greeted by a friendly message, voiced by different people in different regions. Some phone services included messages from sponsors; others were more straightforward. Before the digital age, many people used the service to reset clocks after power outages or other disruptions. Verizon discontinued the service in 2011, though it held out longer than AT&T, which had pulled the plug four years earlier. It’s still offered in some communities by local businesses and organizations.

  114. 114
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @germy:

    one would simply pickup the receiver and bark at the operator.

    The changeover was disruptive.

  115. 115
    tokyokie says:

    @Ben Cisco: Hell, having had it pounded into my head in kindergarten (“Remember your name and address, and your telephone number, too…”) I not only recall my parents’ old phone number, I’ve frequently used it as a PIN.

  116. 116
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    From the same article. Dunno if still true but kind of cool nevertheless.

    Today’s callers to the USNO line hear the same voice they have since 1978, when actor Fred Covington recorded every possible permutation of the time over several days. Covington was a character actor, possibly best known for his portrayal of an auctioneer in the original 1977 Roots miniseries. He died in 1993, but if you dial the right number, his voice — and a service many probably assumed had long ago vanished — lives on.

  117. 117
    --bd says:

    And here’s one for you Detroiters:
    “For the best in home improvement,
    we’re known throughout the state,
    call TYler 8 – 7100,
    for your home improvement date!”

  118. 118
  119. 119
    lurker dean says:

    @NotMax: yikes! that car phono reminds me of first generation cd players for cars, most of which skipped terribly over every bump. basically the same tech, lol.

  120. 120
    Kathleen says:

    @Brachiator: Wilson Picket 634-5789:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=My2apquxKKQ

    Lyrics
    All you got to do is
    Pick up your telephone
    And dial 634-5789

  121. 121
    Amir Khalid says:

    @NotMax:
    23% of 300 million is 69 million people, and I would guess quite a few of them probably don’t wear watches either.

  122. 122
    debbie says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Speaking of, has the weather calmed down in your area?

  123. 123
    different-church-lady says:

    @Brachiator: Now try to imagine living in a time when clocks were a luxury item and for the hoi-polloi the most sophisticated timekeeping method available was the chiming of the village church bells.

  124. 124
    NotMax says:

    @ –bd

    Jingle from the Philly area:

    “There’s something about a Muntz TV
    Poplar 9 oh three oh three”

    ;)

  125. 125
    NotMax says:

    @different-church-lady

    Used it previously but cannot resist.

    “Gnomon, coordinate.”

    :)

  126. 126
    NeenerNeener says:

    @randy khan: In college psych classes they called it “the 7 plus or minus 2 rule”. People can remember as few as 5 or as many as 9 numbers/characters in a string.

  127. 127
  128. 128
    Amir Khalid says:

    @germy:
    If someone barked at me over the phone, I would respond by hissing and spitting. Caterwauling would not be ruled out.

  129. 129
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: That is kinda cool.

  130. 130
    germy says:

    @Amir Khalid: Everyone barked in the old pre-code movies. Fast, loud talking.

    I’m so old, I remember calling the operator, giving them the name and general address of the person I was trying to reach, and being connected.

  131. 131
  132. 132
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @debbie: For the moment.

  133. 133
    Miss Bianca says:

    @–bd: AAAGGGHHH, going back in time!! (Detroit-suburbanite here!)

  134. 134
    JGabriel says:

    @Raven:

    My bride has a friend flying in on the redeye from the bay area for the weekend.

    Everyone once in a while I remind myself how much has changed in the recent past by looking at a sentence and thinking, “How would someone from, say circa 1750, interpret that sentence?”

    I mean, what would they make of the phrases ‘flying in’ or ‘redeye’? What would they interpret ‘the bay area’ as referring to?

  135. 135
  136. 136
    different-church-lady says:

    @JGabriel: “weekend” would trip them up too.

  137. 137
    Bill Arnold says:

    @rikyrah:
    Further details on Trump’s threat to Five Eyes. This is getting a lot of people riled up particularly in the UK and Australia:
    Donald Trump wants investigation into Australia’s role in ‘Russian hoax’ – This is the first time the US president has publicly named Australia while discussing the FBI inquiry into his election campaign (Melissa Davey, Sat 25 May 2019)
    Basically Trump is saying that Barr has unrestricted access to all Five Eyes sources and methods, and some people are rightly worried that this information will either leak or be deliberately leaked to the Russians. (Although the Russians would be nearly as happy if their (possible) puppet(s) in Kremlin-West simply broke Five Eyes. This is because since D.J. Trump’s past and present Russia connections continue to be very concerning. There are no certainties so these concerns are probabilities. (between 0 and 1)) Bold mine:

    Trump said he had declassified “potentially millions of pages” of intelligence documents related to surveillance activities on his campaign and Barr would be in charge of analysing it.
    “So what I’ve done is I’ve declassified everything,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday before leaving on a trip to Japan.
    Barr’s inquiry into the Trump-Russia inquiry is corruption eating itself | Richard Wolffe
    “He can look and I hope he looks at the UK and I hope he looks at Australia and I hope he looks at Ukraine.
    “I hope he looks at everything, because there was a hoax that was perpetrated on our country.”
    Trump’s former campaign aide George Papadopoulos has claimed that Australia’s former high commissioner to the UK, Alexander Downer, spied on him during a meeting at a London bar in May 2016.
    Downer has rejected this, but said that during the meeting Papadopoulos had told him Russia had damaging material on Trump’s presidential rival, Hillary Clinton.

  138. 138
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @different-church-lady: On ships, clocks were never a luxury. I recall a competition for an accurate time piece for the purposes of navigation… Yes, John Harrison:

    In 1730, Harrison designed a marine clock to compete for the Longitude Prize and travelled to London, seeking financial assistance. He presented his ideas to Edmond Halley, the Astronomer Royal, who in turn referred him to George Graham, the country’s foremost clockmaker. Graham must have been impressed by Harrison’s ideas, for he loaned him money to build a model of his “Sea clock”. As the clock was an attempt to make a seagoing version of his wooden pendulum clocks, which performed exceptionally well, he used wooden wheels, roller pinions and a version of the ‘grasshopper’ escapement. Instead of a pendulum, he used two dumbbell balances, linked together.

    It took Harrison five years to build his first sea clock (or H1).[7] He demonstrated it to members of the Royal Society who spoke on his behalf to the Board of Longitude. The clock was the first proposal that the Board considered to be worthy of a sea trial. In 1736, Harrison sailed to Lisbon on HMS Centurion under the command of Captain George Proctor and returned on HMS Orford after Proctor died at Lisbon on 4 October 1736. The clock lost time on the outward voyage. However, it performed well on the return trip: both the captain and the sailing master of the Orford praised the design. The master noted that his own calculations had placed the ship sixty miles east of its true landfall which had been correctly predicted by Harrison using H1.

    It was sorely needed.

    eta: his was the first that worked, their were of course many improvements over the years.

  139. 139
    Brachiator says:

    @different-church-lady:

    Timekeeping in ancient times was even more fun.

    One of the earliest of all devices to tell time was the sundial. The sundial is looked on as being a form of sun-powered clock. Ancient civilizations such as the Sumerians did have this knowledge, but when the culture died, knowledge was lost along with many other aspects of the civilization unfortunately.

    One thing that is known is this. It was the ancient Egyptians who did come up with a form of system to divide the day up into parts. These parts were a whole lot like hours in description. The Egyptians constructed obelisks, which were four-sided and well tapered monuments, and they were geographically located in certain places. These obelisks were believed to have been constructed around 3500 BC and a shadow would be cast by the obelisk as the sun made it’s way across the sky. This obelisk would be marked out in certain sections to see the two halves of the day. There was another more advanced shadow clock or sundial in use by the ancient Egyptians around 1500 BC. This shadow clock or sundial permitted one to measure the passage of hours within a day.

    No one was able to perfect a wrist sun dial.

  140. 140
    Ben Cisco says:

    @tokyokie: Yup. My brother and I got that same speech. I still have perfect recall of the address too.

  141. 141
    NotMax says:

    @Brachiator

    No one was able to perfect a wrist sun dial.

    Not much good for timekeeping but, oddly, about as good for making intelligible phone calls as is the cell phone.

    ;)

  142. 142
    L85NJGT says:

    Once upon a time, Cole had a post up about how high-end couture eventually ended up in Appalachian dollar racks. The short version is commoditization. All consumer brands end up there eventually. Devine understood in 2016 they were busting out brand Wilmer, and got real paid. The 2020 campaign is clearance rack Wilmer. Be wary of political analysis that use his 2016 valuation.

  143. 143
    NotMax says:

    @L85NJGT

    T J Maxx Minn.

    ;)

  144. 144
    Brachiator says:

    @NotMax:

    No one was able to perfect a wrist sun dial.

    Not much good for timekeeping but, oddly, about as good for making intelligible phone calls as is the cell phone.

    Ha!

    More seriously, my cellphone is an essential device. I can’t leave home without it.

    But I often text more than I use it for phone calls.

    A bunch of staff were out having lunch together when we got a friendly text from someone back at the office about an upcoming party for a friend. This quickly turned into a wild group conference text session.

  145. 145
    Another Scott says:

    @NotMax: WWV:

    NIST radio station WWV broadcasts time and frequency information 24 hours per day, 7 days per week to millions of listeners worldwide. WWV is located near Fort Collins, Colorado, about 100 kilometers north of Denver. The broadcast information includes time announcements, standard time intervals, standard frequencies, UT1 time corrections, a BCD time code, and geophysical alerts.

    […]

    WWV operates in the high frequency (HF) portion of the radio spectrum. The station radiates 10 000 W on 5 MHz, 10 MHz, and 15 MHz; and 2500 W on 2.5 MHz and 20 MHz. Each frequency is broadcast from a separate transmitter. Although each frequency carries the same information, multiple frequencies are used because the quality of HF reception depends on many factors such as location, time of year, time of day, the frequency being used, and atmospheric and ionospheric propagation conditions. The variety of frequencies makes it likely that at least one frequency will be usable at all times.

    Exciting! ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  146. 146
    NotMax says:

    @Another Scott
    Yeah, we used to coordinate the clock (military time digital wheel clock, thank you very much) on the transmitter control panel at the college radio station with WWV at least once daily, as required by the FCC after we went from carrier current AM (a/k/a gas pipe transmission) to licensed FM.

    Getting through the process of that transition was a travail the like of which i hope to never have to experience again.

  147. 147
    The Lodger says:

    @NeenerNeener: Discovered at Bell Labs (where else?)

  148. 148
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @Amir Khalid: Yerpeen ATMs generally require a 4-digit PIN. USAns preparing to travel Over the Pwnd are routinely advised to ask their banks & credit card corps to replace any longer PINs with ones of length 4 in order to use them for cash withdrawals Ovah Thar.

  149. 149
    Stan says:

    @cleek: FS, there are 8 months until the first primary vote is cast.

    polls tell us nothing about who the nominee will be at this point.

    538.com disagrees,says they have some predictive value.

  150. 150

    @rikyrah: And they’re just getting warmed up.

    As I talked about last night, the latest move to repeal healthcare protections for trans people is also laying the groundwork to declare that “sex” is assigned at birth and cannot be changed.

    Thereby defining trans people out of legal existence, and therefore there can’t be any anti-trans discrimination because “trans” doesn’t exist.

    Following their logic to its conclusion means that my Social Security info — which is key to getting all other legal ID — reverts back to listing me as male, as would passport, and even though CA has trans protections, my drivers license might change too if I want to have a Real ID drivers license.

    All of which aside from the specific cruelty in itself is designed to make trans people vulnerable to other discrimination from anyone who sees my ID (especially after making anti-trans discrimination legal).

    And before anyone says that that can’t happen, think about all the norms that the administration has already blown through.

    Also, a Pence presidency wouldn’t be much worse for LGBTQ folks, since Pence and his minions are already implementing their agenda.

  151. 151
    Ruckus says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    It is after all tinkle down economics. People just continue to misspell it as trickle down.

  152. 152
    Ruckus says:

    @NotMax:
    Awww, gray hot dogs, floating in steaming water with lumps of red dye. Lunch dinning at Great Lakes Naval Station 50 yrs ago. What could be better?

    Almost anything……. And no it wasn’t the liver and onions that was the other choice on that day of the week. Forced to march to lunch and take food, none of which I partook of for the 3 months I was there. Because they forced us to go, to take but not to eat. They weren’t stupid enough to think that anyone could eat that crap and keep it down.

  153. 153
    Porlock Junior says:

    @Amir Khalid: From La Callecita Street in San Diego to the El Camino in Silicon Valley, the hoi polloi are punching their PIN numbers into ATM machines to get cash to buy a GPS system for excursions to the La Brea Tar Pits.

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