Manafort in for 7.5 years

Open thread






99 replies
  1. 1
    randy khan says:

    So, 7-1/2 years in total. I wish it had been more.

  2. 2
    rikyrah says:

    Time for some states to bring up charges against Manafort.

  3. 3
    scav says:

    Hanging and quartering are just not what used to be, I DescriptionBeloasn’t even hoping for a head on a spike over Tower Bridge, but still!

  4. 4
    rikyrah says:

    Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) Tweeted:
    In an effort to avoid voting in favor of the House’s resolution to terminate Trump’s #FakeEmergency, GOP senators are proposing legislation to allow Trump to violate the Constitution *just this once.*

    The House will not take up this legislation to give President Trump a pass. https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1105828873269374976?s=17

  5. 5
    MJS says:

    State AGs, come on down! Looking at you, NY.

  6. 6
    germy says:

    Jackson said she appreciated Manafort's comments today, but found it "striking" he chose not to write something to her in advance of sentencing, which she said many defendants have done, incl. those who haven't finished high school or who don't speak English as a first language— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) March 13, 2019

  7. 7
    Mr. Mack says:

    @randy khan: Did the judge cut him some slack, or was it at the top end of required sentencing?

  8. 8
    Baud says:

    Is anyone reporting whether this sentence is within the Guidelines range? The Virginia sentence was offensive because it was a substantial downward departure from the Guidelines.

  9. 9
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Baud: MSNBC talking heads keeping using phrases like “down the middle” and “by the book”

    ETA and repost from below: one of the MSNBC former-federal-prosecutors just rattled off the states where charges could but have not yet been filed. I think it included NY, Illinois and Rhode Island

  10. 10
    Gin & Tonic says:

    Let’s ask these people their opinion.

  11. 11
    Baud says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ok, sounds like the judge played it safe and followed the guidelines, rather than trying to compensate for the earlier outrageous sentence. Thanks.

  12. 12

    @Baud: This is the only thing I’ve seen so far:

    Jackson says the witness tampering count warrants a consecutive sentence, but the full five-year maximum is too much— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) March 13, 2019

  13. 13
    BlueGirlFromWyo says:

    The old saying’s right: if you’re gonna steal, steal big. This is a disgrace.

  14. 14
    dr. bloor says:

    Seven and a half will likely finish him off. He already looks like death warmed over.

  15. 15
    hells littlest angel says:

    Disappointed, but if he dies in prison I’ll get over it.

  16. 16
    Butch says:

    @Baud: The guidelines allowed up to 10 years according to the reporting I’ve heard. I think his sentences combined are a disgrace – the guy is a lifelong criminal.

  17. 17
    geg6 says:

    @dr. bloor:

    Seven and a half will likely finish him off.

    I sure hope so. Traitorous bastard.

  18. 18
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @dr. bloor: I have to recover the quatloos I lost in an earlier thread, confidently wagering he’d get at least eight years. So doubling down: Manafort will be pardoned the morning after the 2020 election, if not one minute after the polls close in Arizona (the western-most swing state). ETA: with a Senate (juror) seat possible in play

  19. 19
    cckids says:

    @dr. bloor:

    He already looks like death warmed over.

    I’d be willing to bet that his current look is enhanced so as to (hopefully) elicit sympathy from judges, given the wheelchair, etc. It may have worked.

  20. 20
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Mr. Mack: @Baud: It was at the top end of how the guidelines indicate a possible ten year maximum sentence should be applied. She came out on the high side of splitting the difference, which is required by the rules and regs in place to allow a certain amount of his time to serve concurrently with the ridiculous sentence he got from Judge Ellis last week the EDVA. Had Judge Ellis conducted himself and his court the way Judge Jackson did, Manafort would be looking at closer to 15 or 20 years between the two convictions. The fault here is not on Judge Jackson, she did what she was supposed to do, the way she was supposed to do it. The fault is still on Judge Ellis.

    There are five six additional items to keep in mind here:
    1) With today’s sentence, he will be in prison until he’s just about 77. Even Club Fed is unpleasant. And they’re going to have to keep him solitary to keep him safe.
    2) Judge Jackson signed an order for $11 million of addition restitution.
    3) The Special Counsel just hit Manafort with an additional $24 million restitution order in regard to his conviction in the EDVA, which is not subject to Judge Ellis’s approval or oversight. So that’s now an additional $35 million in restitution.
    4) The Special Counsel had not made a final determination as to whether he will appeal Judge Ellis’s sentencing decision. Some of that delay was to see what Judge Jackson did today.
    5) The Special Counsel has not made a final determination as to whether to charge Manafort with the dozens of additional crimes that he committed and that they have not currently charged him with. Some of that delay was to see what the outcomes of both trials were, including the sentencing.
    6) New York state, the City of New York, and the Attorney General in DC will now begin to move forward as to whether they will bring charges against Manafort for the crimes he committed in their jurisdictions, but that the Special Counsel did not charge him for.

  21. 21
    hueyplong says:

    @hells littlest angel: Exactly. The issue is whether he dies in prison

    I see another Individual the same way. Will definitely be disappointed on that one.

  22. 22
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m a big fan of just shipping him back to the Ukraine to save American taxpayers the cost.

  23. 23
    dr. bloor says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: If that’s true, the length of his sentence is irrelevant and this is all wasted angst.

  24. 24

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I can see Trump waiting for the election. Do you think he’ll still pardon Manafort if he loses?

  25. 25
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @dr. bloor: d this is all wasted angst.

    or, Balloon Juice, you might say

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: yup, I don’t think it’s tin-foil hatty to say that trump wants, at the very least, to keep the Russian mafia (from the Kremlin to Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Malta (or is it Cyprus?) to god knows what respectable looking Manhattan offices) happy enough to do business, and withhold information. I don’t believe for a moment Manafort has told all he knows, or that he doesn’t know about more than just trump.

  26. 26
    germy says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    Do you think he’ll still pardon Manafort if he loses?

    If he loses, I wonder if he’ll accept defeat or tell his base the election was rigged? And then blame the inevitable violence on leftists?

  27. 27
  28. 28
    JoyceH says:

    @cckids: More likely it was his pre-prison appearance that was “enhanced”. I roll my eyes every time a pundit says that prison has aged Manafort. He’s a seventy year old man who until recently has lived the life of a millionaire. Now he’s locked up and separated from his hair tint and his facials, his toners and tighteners, his buffers and his bracers – and he’s looking his age.

  29. 29
    Plato says:

    I knew all her showboating before the ‘sentencing’ was just that. What a joke. What a travesty. It is always nice to be white.

  30. 30
    Another Scott says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t see why Donnie would pardon him – his voters don’t care (the way they did about the Sheriff guy). Manafort is a disposable hired gun, Donnie cut him loose because he was ‘low energy’ and he couldn’t control the news narrative about the campaign. Manafort’s not going to squeal on Donnie even without the promise of a pardon because he doesn’t want the Putin mafia types to come after him or his family.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  31. 31
    Yutsano says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Bank of Cyprus. You know, the one on which Wilbur Ross has a seat on the board? And is suspected of being one of the major Russian money launderers?

  32. 32
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Yutsano: “Suspected”?

  33. 33

    @germy:

    I wonder if he’ll accept defeat

    In the sense of not contesting the transfer of power in any meaningful physical way? Probably. He’s an incredible coward. More to the point, if he refuses to budge from the White House, he’ll be carried out. The Secret Service takes their job VERY seriously, and their duty will be to the new president.

    tell his base the election was rigged?

    Yes. Absolutely. He will claim it was rigged against him if he wins.

    And then blame the inevitable violence on leftists?

    If there is any extra violence, it will be a small, brief increase in stochastic terrorism, hopefully put down by a watchful FBI. Thank goodness, conservatives have proven time and again they elected a chickenshit president for a chickenshit movement.

  34. 34
    Aleta says:

    Minus time already served?

  35. 35
    MattF says:

    @rikyrah: So, now, the Senate has to take up the legislation passed by the House? Or not?

  36. 36
    trollhattan says:

    @Another Scott:
    Hasn’t Trump been extolling Manafort’s loyalty? A pardon sends a message to the several dozen other miscreants in process.

    Which makes state charges triply important. Paulie needs a nice friendly prison shanking.

  37. 37
    Baud says:

    @MattF: The Senate has to vote on it.

  38. 38
    BobS says:

    @JoyceH: That’s an insightful observation. I don’t think he’s up to doing this sentence (and that’s not to say I wouldn’t like to see one or more states bring charges to forestall a Trump pardon.

  39. 39
    tobie says:

    Judge Jackson played it safe and by the book but given the gross miscarriage of Justice in Virginia, and the severity of the crime of witness tampering and Manafort’s repeated lying to prosecutors following his plea deal, playing it safe seems like an injustice.

  40. 40
    germy says:

    @JoyceH: And if he did get a pardon, he’d do a Willy Wonka somersault and show up on the talk shows looking ten years younger.

  41. 41
    Gin & Tonic says:

    And, on cue, the Manhattan DA’s office just unsealed 15 fraud and conspiracy charges against our man Paulie.

  42. 42
    rikyrah says:

    Saeed Jones (@theferocity) Tweeted:
    BITCHHHHHH. “Prosecutors said William Singer also falsified ethnicities and other biographical details in some cases, to take advantage of affirmative action.” https://t.co/D8tQhkxCZ4 https://twitter.com/theferocity/status/1105819170640482309?s=17

  43. 43
    ruemara says:

    It’s not long enough, not by half and frankly he deserves capital punishment. But the nice news is that NYC DA just indicted him on charges.

  44. 44
    LAO says:

    And, Manhattan DA just released a new state indictment.

    ETA: G&T got there first

  45. 45
    Another Scott says:

    @trollhattan: The only thing I recall recently is, “I feel very badly for Paul Manafort” when he commented after his first sentence by Ellis. And then Donnie immediately started ranting about “no collusion” and all the rest.

    I dunno.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  46. 46
    rikyrah says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    4) The Special Counsel had not made a final determination as to whether he will appeal Judge Ellis’s sentencing decision. Some of that delay was to see what Judge Jackson did today.
    5) The Special Counsel has not made a final determination as to whether to charge Manafort with the dozens of additional crimes that he committed and that they have not currently charged him with. Some of that delay was to see what the outcomes of both trials were, including the sentencing.
    6) New York state, the City of New York, and the Attorney General in DC will now begin to move forward as to whether they will bring charges against Manafort for the crimes he committed in their jurisdictions, but that the Special Counsel did not charge him for.

    The answer to all of these should be YES YES and more YES.

  47. 47
    Aleta says:

    Elie Honig @eliehonig

    Manafort bottom line:

    47 months (EDVA) + 43 months (DC consecutive) = 90 months.

    Subtract -15% for good time in prison (standard federal deduction) = about 77 months.
    Subtract -9 months already served.

    = approx. 68 months behind bars = gets out around November 2024

  48. 48
  49. 49
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @LAO: Is that New York State or New York County?

  50. 50
    trollhattan says:

    @Gin & Tonic:
    There it is.

    Fascinating how Paulie has an endless supply of expen$ive lawyers for all these legal adventures.

  51. 51
    Baud says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Haha. Nice.

  52. 52
    rikyrah says:

    @MattF:

    @rikyrah: So, now, the Senate has to take up the legislation passed by the House? Or not?

    They always had to…it was never any question. Out of the Turtle’s hands.

  53. 53
    ruemara says:

    @rikyrah: Yeah. I needed a lot of moments to contain the rage I feel about this. You guys have no idea how much this shit opened some severe & deep wounds.

  54. 54
    Baud says:

    @LAO: Hey, where have you been?

  55. 55
  56. 56
    chris says:

    Wow. Downing is saying that Judge ABJ found that there was no evidence of Russia collusion. Protesters shout out “LIAR” and “THAT’S NOT WHAT SHE SAID.” (They’re right, it’s not what she said. She said this case had not addressed the collusion question.)— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) 13 March 2019

    (Downing is Manafort’s defence lawyer)

  57. 57
    dmsilev says:

    @LAO: Story link from the FTNYT. Headline writer gets right to the point:

    New York Charges Paul Manafort With 16 Crimes. If He’s Convicted, Trump Can’t Pardon Him.

    Paul J. Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, has been charged in New York with mortgage fraud and more than a dozen other state felonies, the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance, Jr., said Wednesday, an effort to ensure he will still face prison time if Mr. Trump pardons him for his federal crimes.

  58. 58
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Another Scott: all valid points, but one more motivator for trump to pardon, especially if he’s a lame duck: To piss off the libs

  59. 59
    🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷 says:

    @Plato:
    What the fuck was she supposed to do? Sentencing guidelines are sentencing guidelines. By all accounts, she did her job as she was supposed to. It was that asshole Ellis that fucked things up. Be pissed at him.

    Speaking of which, how’s old Ellie been reacting to the backlash, anyway? Shocked, shocked, he tells you?

  60. 60
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @germy: French stand your ground laws are weird!

  61. 61
    dmsilev says:

    @rikyrah: They have to take up the Houses’s bill, but the point of this overly-clever maneuver is to give Republican Senators an excuse for voting no on the House’s bill. No idea whether it will work or not.

  62. 62
    LAO says:

    @Gin & Tonic: New York County (Manhattan), state charges though.

    @Baud: hiding

  63. 63
  64. 64
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @chris: Wow. Downing is saying that Judge ABJ found that there was no evidence of Russia collusion. Protesters shout out “LIAR”

    I keep saying in the trump era we need a word for shocked-if-not-at-all-surprised. Also for “TeeVee performance for the audience of one”.

    I wonder if The Beast is tweeting this out yet.

  65. 65
    Baud says:

    @LAO: I’m sorry to hear that. You are missed.

  66. 66
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Gin & Tonic: @LAO: @dmsilev: You all have got to give me the five minutes or so it takes to poke out the breaking news post and get the links in the proper places.

  67. 67
    Aleta says:

    Prob mentioned already, but his indictment by the Manhattan DA this morning, if successfully prosecuted, doesn’t allow pardon by the prez.

    (I see the actual lawyers here are fast in the water.)

  68. 68
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Frankensteinbeck: @Aleta: OT: I am sorry I upset you both yesterday.

  69. 69
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Aleta: Yes, but… She is required by the rules and regs to do so for a certain amount of that time.

  70. 70
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @rikyrah: Well 6 just got answered in NY.

  71. 71
    Aleta says:

    Katy Tur @KatyTurNBC

    Manafort’s lawyer came out and just said “no collusion” which is wild because the Judge specifically said no collusion had nothing to do with that case and that Mueller is still looking into collusion.

    Could it be any clearer, Manafort’s folks are appealing for a pardon?

  72. 72
    rikyrah says:

    @ruemara:

    @rikyrah: Yeah. I needed a lot of moments to contain the rage I feel about this. You guys have no idea how much this shit opened some severe & deep wounds

    You need not explain anything to me. Any achieving Black person in America that’s not a Coon on the Pole, understands your rage.

  73. 73
    Aleta says:

    @Adam L Silverman: see #47 for estimate

  74. 74
    J R in WV says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I can see Trump waiting for the election. Do you think he’ll still pardon Manafort if he loses?

    No way — he’ll be so pissed if he goes down after all that work, already spent a lot of time and money on the 2020 campaign! He’ll be bitter and hateful, and blame all these felons for messing up his re-election… no pardons for anyone if he loses re-election … well, maybe for Ivanka?

  75. 75
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Aleta: Saw it after I responded to the earlier comment. Getting the breaking news post up put me behind.

  76. 76
    Aleta says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you, but I wasn’t upset.

  77. 77
    cckids says:

    @JoyceH: Well, true. But a life of money and privilege also brings good health care, which can keep you looking better too. And I have no trouble believing Manafort & his lawyers would try to game the legal system by overstating his “health” issues.

  78. 78
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    It’s my understanding that Ukraine prefers not to be called “the” Ukraine — apparently the definite article dates back to when the nation was under Russian rule.

  79. 79
    Aleta says:

    southpaw @nycsouthpaw

    All in all, Manafort’s early decision not to waive venue for the EDVA charges and consolidate his case in DC—which was puzzling at the time—looks like it saved him a decade or more off his sentence and gave him a chance to get out of prison in his 70s even if he’s not pardoned.

    southpaw @nycsouthpaw
    And I’d like to invite Judge Ellis and Judge Jackson to join my sxspaw panel to discuss whether that’s as it should be.

    Dan Lavoie @djlavoie
    Replying to @nycsouthpaw
    Did he know who he pulled for EDVA judge at the time he made that decision?

    southpaw @nycsouthpaw
    Doubt it, but he knew he had ABJ in DC.

  80. 80
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Aleta: I’m sorry I didn’t upset you…//

  81. 81
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Amir Khalid: You are correct and normally I don’t make that error. But every once in a while I do. I’ve corrected it.

  82. 82
    Death Panel Truck says:

    Too bad the decimal is in the wrong place. As long as he leaves prison in a pine box, I guess I’ll be happy.

    He’d best watch out for the Thallium Tea Treatment. Vlad has a long reach.

  83. 83
    hueyplong says:

    Looks like the NY prosecutors are going to keep Manafort’s lawyers busy.

  84. 84
    Ruckus says:

    @Butch:
    Courts doing their job can not imprison a person for things not tried in that court. Manfort may be a life long criminal, I’m pretty sure he is, and while he should be tried for that, he really can’t be. Exactly why the criminal system is not working properly. People like him get away with almost everything while a guy walking down the street gets the death penalty for walking while black.

  85. 85
    Aleta says:

    Ken Dilanian: Downing said two courts had found no collusion—patently untrue.

    New York Law Journal: NY Lawmakers Expected to Pass Bill Closing Double Jeopardy Loophole

    Ken Dilanian: Won’t apply retroactively but we can assume Manhattan DA took account of the law.

  86. 86
    Karen says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: I thought that Trump couldn’t pardon Manafort from these state indictments.

  87. 87
    Ruckus says:

    @Another Scott:
    What’s in a Manfort pardon for Trump? Because that’s the only real question.

  88. 88
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Karen: He can’t. He can only pardon for Federal crimes.

  89. 89
    Mnemosyne says:

    @ruemara:

    I have a deep urge to slap Lori Laughlin’s bratty kid upside the head, so I can only imagine how you’re feeling.

    Who thought that Paris Hilton would end up looking like someone with a clear-eyed view of her own limitations when she decided to get her GED and skip college to hit the party scene?

  90. 90
    Aleta says:

    @Adam L Silverman: (ha)
    What @Frankensteinbeck was talking about is important though. IMO, the political science aspect of the issue is larger than framing the discussion as personal upset. Politics is what we’re all here to discuss and I’m grateful to Frankensteinbeck for putting in the effort and time to bring that part out. Not everyone agrees that it matters, but I guess that’s politics.

  91. 91
    ruemara says:

    @Mnemosyne: Funny ain’t it. I gave up on USC and even CSULA because I couldn’t even begin to figure out how to pay for the grad programs I was accepted to. That was over a decade ago. The fucking trajectory of my life has always been affected by lack of resources. I couldn’t afford the math tutoring, couldn’t afford more than one SAT, couldn’t afford more than 5 applications and couldn’t get my parents to let me go to college when I was being scouted back at 15. I cannot understand why rage hasn’t made me burst into flames.

  92. 92
    satby says:

    @Aleta: for those of us who missed that, can you provide a link?

  93. 93
    WaterGirl says:

    @satby: It’s in this thread. Start at comment 20-something, which is now a photo that is “missing from instagram”.

    https://www.balloon-juice.com/2019/03/12/worsts-worse-open-thread/

  94. 94
    Gravenstone says:

    @MattF: The Senate has no choice in that particular matter. They will have to vote on the repudiation of Trump’s “emergency” because that’s what the applicable law requires of them.

  95. 95
    Mary G says:

    This is fucking appalling.

  96. 96
    david says:

    This judge was the “harsh” judge who everyone was praising over the last several weeks, right?

  97. 97
    Miss Bianca says:

    @rikyrah: This. This fucking thing. Gaming affirmative action, after decrying it for all these years. As if they didn’t have *enough* White Folks affirmative action at their disposal already. This just makes me sick.

    @LAO: You’re back! Yaay! (Kermit arms waving around). Haven’t seen your nym here in ever so long!

  98. 98
    Elie says:

    @rikyrah:

    I am soooooooo furious about this that I can barely talk. It is like the final log on the pyre of our myth of the United States… just a bunch of white grifters and slave owners who wove a magic tale about a country that does not exist and has NEVER existed! All those years my parents and cousins and aunts and uncles talked about working hard to PROVE you are valuable and that you can contribute — How hard we worked, and sacrificed and how much shit we swallowed! I am past anything but sorrow and fury…

  99. 99
    Tehanu says:

    7.5 years … well, there are still the NY state indictments; maybe he’ll get a real sentence from that. I agree, “Judge” Ellis is the responsible party for the ridiculously short length of time that Manafort will spend in federal prison.

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