Interesting Read: Iowa Does Not Look Like America the Democratic Party

Nor does New Hampshire. Philip Bump, in the Washington Post:

There’s a pretty obvious reason that white men make up the vast majority of Republicans elected to the House of Representatives in 2018 but only about 4 in 10 Democrats: The Democratic Party has a lot fewer white members than the GOP. Pew Research Center data indicates that, in 2017, about 83 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters were white, compared with 59 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. In fact, the Republican Party is more heavily white now than the Democratic Party was in 1997 — by a fairly wide margin.

This data about the composition of each party allows us to run an interesting experiment. Which states have a racial composition that’s most like one party or the other? (Below, any non-Hispanic racial group excludes any Hispanic members.) To figure that out, we compare the density of each racial group to the density of each party. The closer the size of each group is to either party, the smaller the bar showing the deviation from that party…

It is February 2019, less than a year until the Iowa caucuses. As is the norm, Iowa will be the first state to weigh in on the Democratic Party’s presidential nominees next year, according to the primary-tracking website Frontloading HQ. It will be followed, as usual, by New Hampshire (barring some weirdness from New York that the link in the preceding sentence explains).

Why is that important? Because Iowa and New Hampshire have populations that look a lot more like the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. Of the 50 states, Iowa is 39th most like the Democratic Party. New Hampshire is the 44th most like the Democrats. New Hampshire is also the 13th most like the Republican Party in terms of racial composition — and Iowa is the third most similar to the GOP in the country, following only Wyoming and North Dakota.

In other words, the first two states to weigh in on who should be the Democratic nominee — undoubtedly helping narrow down the field of contenders — are states that are more likely to resemble the GOP racially…

Full tables at the link. Yet more reasons why the current cavalcade of primaries is harmful to everyone except a handful of hotel / restaurant profiteers — and the GOP.






113 replies
  1. 1
    Elizabelle says:

    It’s beyond time to dump Iowa and New Hampshire. They served their purpose. They now distort the process. And no more caucuses. They are unrepresentative.

    Rotating regional primaries.

  2. 2

    Since we’re talking about our candidates, I had a Pod Save America episode on my phone at the gym. As you probably know, the hosts worked for Obama. They said that staffers exchange stories about their bosses and the warnings about working for Klobuchar have been around for years. It sounded like they weren’t just talking about a tough boss, but one who was hard to work for. They contrasted her to HRC, who was known for being kind to staff.

    I was disappointed. I’d been hoping this was just a smear, but I’m not so sure.

  3. 3
    WaterGirl says:

    @Elizabelle: There is a lot that is wrong with caucuses, and I saw some of it first hand when I was working for the Obama campaign in Dec 2007/Jan 2008.

    But the Iowa caucus did bring us Barack Obama — if he hadn’t won Iowa with all the white people there to show that they would indeed vote for this black man, I don’t think he would be our President today.

    I will always be grateful to Iowa for that.

  4. 4
    WaterGirl says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Yeah, I listened to that podcast a few days ago, and I thought it was very clear that she has a rep, and has had it for years. And it’s not that she is a workhorse who expects everybody to work as hard as she does.

    They also had a couple of great conversations in the past couple of weeks re: Virginia governor, blackface, etc that would be really great for anyone who doesn’t quite get why that is so offensive. I was really happy to see one of them raise the point that it also matters that he is a doctor, because that brings to mind all the terrible ways in which black people are often treated by the medical community.

  5. 5
    rikyrah says:

    @Elizabelle:

    It’s beyond time to dump Iowa and New Hampshire. They served their purpose. They now distort the process. And no more caucuses. They are unrepresentative

    truth

  6. 6
    rikyrah says:

    @WaterGirl:

    But the Iowa caucus did bring us Barack Obama — if he hadn’t won Iowa with all the white people there to show that they would indeed vote for this black man, I don’t think he would be our President today.

    This is true. Very true. I still remember that night. The world was stunned, particularly Black folks. I still remember my late mother’s reaction.

    Having been born and raised in the Police State known as Jim Crow Mississippi…

    Barack Obama winning IOWA…was beyond stunning.

  7. 7
    guachi says:

    Looking purely at racial composition is just so dumb I can’t even.

    I suppose the clown who wrote this would be surprised that Vermont isn’t a GOP stronghold or that the least black state in the union (0.5%) has a Democratic governor and one Democratic Senator. And has had at least one since 1911.

  8. 8
    WaterGirl says:

    Wondering if someone can explain the photo that is included over and over and over in articles — and I just don’t get what it’s supposed to represent.

    It’s the hot woman in the read dress (labelled Trumpism), the guy in the checkered shirt who turns around to check her out approvingly (labelled John Roberts) and the woman holding his hand who is giving him an appalled and disgusted look (labelled establishment clause).

    Someone last night mentioned they loved this meme – maybe Elizabelle or SD — so it obviously speaks to people, but I just don’t get it.

  9. 9

    Open thread? Amazon canceled their HQ2 in Queens, which I find very funny.

  10. 10
    Michael Cain says:

    March 3, California and Texas. If I were a candidate, I would be seriously tempted to just ignore Iowa and New Hampshire and spend my money in those two huge states.

  11. 11
    Yarrow says:

    I’d like to see random selection for which states go first, second, third, etc. Like they do for picking lotto numbers. It would highlight different states and their issues and people every time.

  12. 12
    Yarrow says:

    @WaterGirl: The meme is used for everything. You can label those people whatever you want. The guy is supposed to be with his girlfriend but is obviously distracted by the women in the red.

    In the case of the one you’re describing, John Roberts is supposed to be totally committed to the establishment clause, but whooooo, look at that hot Trumpism over there. Totally distracted by it and paying no attention to establishment clause girlfriend.

  13. 13
    chopper says:

    that’s what’s so great about vermont. it’s so fucking white, its patron saint of liberalism believes that racism is a byproduct of income inequality.

  14. 14
  15. 15
    trollhattan says:

    @Major Major Major Major:
    Was there a runner-up like in Miss America?

    “Queens turned out to be a drunk and a slut and homophobic, so you’re now going to wear the crown.”

  16. 16
    Elizabelle says:

    @WaterGirl: Not me for that meme. I promise!

  17. 17
  18. 18
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: The question isn’t whether she is or is not a tough boss or a hard ass boss. The question is whether she’s a toxic boss and leader. If she is, that’s a problem. We have no evidence so far that she is. She’s a hard ass. And if she was a man, no one would be making these comments. This leaves us to evaluate her in regards to:
    1) Is she an effective politician and leader?
    2) Is her platform and proposed policies and the strategies to achieve them feasible, acceptable, and suitable?
    3) Is she a good campaigner, will she be effective on the presidential campaign trail?
    4) Being a hard asses boss, can she assemble a team of staffers that can help her effectively achieve her objectives if she was elected?

  19. 19
    Yarrow says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I love it. It can work for anything.

  20. 20
    ruemara says:

    @WaterGirl: Trumpism is the hardcore fascism the right wants and is about to get because we can’t keep our heads out of our asses.
    The establishment clause is the freedom of religious expression guaranteed by the First Amendment, which Roberts pays lip service to, but won’t stick to.

    @Adam L Silverman: Womena are supposed to be nice or something something. A hard ass male wouldn’t even garner a mild rebuke.

  21. 21
    Eclare says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Rule number one, do not fuck with Bezos. Friend and I both think it is revenge on Trump to cancel it.

  22. 22
    ruemara says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Yeah, the DSA types I follow are thrilled. I wonder what this does to people who thought they were going to get work.

  23. 23
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The question is whether she’s a toxic boss and leader. If she is, that’s a problem. We have no evidence so far that she is. She’s a hard ass.

    Do we have evidence she’s a hard ass?

  24. 24
    zhena gogolia says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I saw my favorite one last night, where the girlfriend was labeled “Crimes,” the guy was “Paul Manafort,” and the girl in red was “More Crimes.”

  25. 25
    Yarrow says:

    @zhena gogolia: I love that one!

  26. 26
    Jeffro says:

    @Elizabelle:

    It’s beyond time to dump Iowa and New Hampshire. They served their purpose. They now distort the process. And no more caucuses. They are unrepresentative.

    Rotating regional primaries

    Can’t improve on perfection, so…seconded!

    Also: no candidates who aren’t members of the party, haven’t disclosed their tax returns, are named ‘Gabbard’, etc.

  27. 27
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Yarrow: Apparently she drives her staff very hard. Emails and phone calls well after midnight and on weekends. Often over matters that the reporting indicates either don’t need to be addressed after hours and/or are picayune. The reporting also indicates that she’s had staffers attend to personal matters for her, like doing her dishes.

  28. 28
    swiftfox says:

    Agree with Yarrow with twists. Regional primaries. SE (southern states up to KY and includes AR); Mid-Atlantic (VA, WV, MD, DE, NJ,PA); NE (including NY); Midwest(OH to MN plus MO+ IA); Great Plains (TX to the Dakotas); Rockies (ID + MT down to AZ + NM); Pac 5 (CA/WA/OR/AK/HI). Randomly selected to determine chronological order towards the end of the year on Colbert/Fallon/SNL/Price Is Right.

  29. 29
    debit says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The reporting also indicates that she’s had staffers attend to personal matters for her, like doing her dishes.

    How is that not disqualifying?

  30. 30
    MomSense says:

    The thing is, Iowa was key to Barack Obama winning the presidency. He was able to persuade skeptical voters that if the white people in Iowa were ready to vote for him, then the rest the country could too.

    We may need this assurance for jittery Dems this time, too.

  31. 31
    Jeffro says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Amazon canceled their HQ2 in Queens, which I find very funny.

    That sound you hear is 2.8M Northern Virginians over-reacting (both in good ways and bad) to the prospect of getting the additional 25k jobs NYC was gonna get.

    For perspective, NoVA already adds over 30k jobs per year ‘as is’. Even 50k jobs over 15-20 years isn’t going to make much of a difference.

    Now…when the NEXT Amazon or three decide to come here…okay, yeah…

  32. 32
    Kraux Pas says:

    @ruemara:

    Womena are supposed to be nice or something something. A hard ass male wouldn’t even garner a mild rebuke.

    Trump is clearly very hard to work for and this doesn’t seem to bother (m)any of his supporters.

  33. 33
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Yarrow: Saw Klobuchar on Maddow the other night, and she said she can be “too tough” and push employees “too far,” so by her own account, she’s a really demanding boss. I think the jury is out on whether she’s a toxic boss, as Adam describes above. She’s an effective legislator, and there are employees who are on record saying she’s tough but fair. For me personally, it’s a non-issue unless new evidence emerges.

  34. 34
    Brachiator says:

    In other words, the first two states to weigh in on who should be the Democratic nominee — undoubtedly helping narrow down the field of contenders — are states that are more likely to resemble the GOP racially…

    Didn’t Obama do well in Iowa?

  35. 35
    hells littlest angel says:

    I find it easy to believe that 83% of the Republican party is white. I just can’t understand what’s wrong with the other 17%.

  36. 36
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @debit: Because the reporting doesn’t supply the context. For instance, I’ve done dishes for my former boss. Because I was at his house for a social and I was helping clean up. It shouldn’t disqualify my former boss from future promotions.The problem is that the reporting doesn’t provide any context, it just says that she had one former staffer do her dishes. Now if she sent a staffer from her office to her home and said: “I need you to go to my house, here’s the keys, and I expect the kitchen to be spotless when I get home” and the implication was failure to do so would bring either disciplinary measures and/or termination, that’s both a problem and disqualifying.

  37. 37
    hells littlest angel says:

    @debit: The reporting also indicates that she’s had staffers attend to personal matters for her, like doing her dishes.

    How is that not disqualifying?

    As long as she didn’t tell them to lie to Congress about doing the dishes, I’ll give her a pass.

  38. 38
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Sorry, I don’t find that makes her a hard ass. That makes her a micro-manager with no sense of how to get the best out of people who work for her. Also:

    The reporting also indicates that she’s had staffers attend to personal matters for her, like doing her dishes.

    This in no way makes her a hard ass. It makes her someone who takes advantage of her employees and can’t be trusted to see where the line is between where someone is an employee and where she’s treating them like servants. If she needs a personal assistant to do dishes and errands and so forth she should hire one.

  39. 39
    West of the Cascades says:

    @Brachiator: the article is a little dumb in assessing the racial makeup of the whole state and not the actual turnout of Democratic primary (or caucus) voters. But the bigger point – that Iowa and NH are anachronisms – seems valid.

  40. 40
    zhena gogolia says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Ick. Do not like. We seem to have a lot of good options — I love Harris so far, and Warren is a serious person. I haven’t rejected Booker yet either.

  41. 41
    zhena gogolia says:

    @Yarrow:

    Right.

  42. 42
    West of the Cascades says:

    @Yarrow: Klobuchar was county attorney/chief prosecutor in the largest county in Minnesota for eight years. That pretty much is the definition of “hard ass.”

  43. 43
    Kylroy says:

    I don’t want to have the state primaries rotate – I want to have them happen on the same day. We don’t elect the president based on phased results, why should we nominate candidates any differently?

  44. 44
    kindness says:

    Primary/Caucus positions need to be rotated. No one state should think they ‘should’ be 1st. Having said that now that California is on Super Tuesday, at least we have some clout. Previously it was always all over by the time they had us vote. I think that was on purpose back in the old days. No more.

  45. 45
    WaterGirl says:

    @Yarrow: @Major Major Major Major: Thank you very much! Yarrow, your comment was very helpful and then M^4’s link that detailed other ways it was used built on that. Finally!

  46. 46
    Kraux Pas says:

    @swiftfox: I like the idea of a series of primaries with multiple states for perhaps a total of 4 or 5 voting days (with enough time for campaigning in between). But I think instead of being organized regionally, they should be randomized so that a candidate with particular strengths in a region can’t run up the score in one day. This would distort the media narrative and have the potential to create a bandwagon effect.

    Randomized large primary days would allow candidates to have flexibility in deciding how to best spend their resources and discourage them from playing to the particulars of whatever region happens to be first that year.

  47. 47
    WaterGirl says:

    @ruemara: A toxic, vindictive male boss would get my attention in a heartbeat. That is totally different from being a hard ass.

  48. 48
    rikyrah says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The question isn’t whether she is or is not a tough boss or a hard ass boss. The question is whether she’s a toxic boss and leader. If she is, that’s a problem.

    The initial stories about her being a hard boss didn’t bother me.
    The stories about contacting the future employers after employees had obtained other jobs- that bothers me a great deal.

  49. 49
    The Moar You Know says:

    Apparently she drives her staff very hard. Emails and phone calls well after midnight and on weekends. Often over matters that the reporting indicates either don’t need to be addressed after hours and/or are picayune.

    @Adam L Silverman: So, like every male boss I’ve ever had. Or female. The same personality type (petty, insecure and backstabby) seem to get into management and stay there. Thank God I don’t have to deal with that shit anymore (my job these days is unusual in that I report directly to the C-level officers and ONLY to them, being in charge of your company’s digital and other security has some real perks).

    Klobuchar can and should have a chief of staff that deals directly with the help so that she’s not exposed to them or they to her. Since she doesn’t, I can only conclude that she’s the type who enjoys “management”. Which is fine. Acting like an entitled asshole is a perk of the job for her.

    As others have noted, we wouldn’t be having a conversation about it if she were male. That behavior would simply be expected.

  50. 50
    rikyrah says:

    @MomSense:

    The thing is, Iowa was key to Barack Obama winning the presidency. He was able to persuade skeptical voters that if the white people in Iowa were ready to vote for him, then the rest the country could too.

    We may need this assurance for jittery Dems this time, too.

    Harris has to prove that she can come in 1st or 2nd in two out of the first 3 contests.

  51. 51
    trollhattan says:

    @Betty Cracker:
    There’s tough-but-fair and there’s tough-because-jerk and I’m fine with the first. If it’s the second we have plenty of options.

    Since it’s become a line of inquiry–fairly or not–she’ll need to address it but hey, she’s got a year.

  52. 52
    AThornton says:

    Blame Jimmy Carter for the prominence of the Iowa Caucuses.

    But what Carter and his advisers understood from day one was that the old rules of campaigning no longer applied. The power of the party bosses, who used to decide on the candidate during the convention, had been destroyed as a result of reforms that were pushed by McGovern after the disastrous 1968 convention. Now, voters in each party held the balance of power through their pick at the primaries and caucuses. There was also more money available for non-establishment candidates. As a result of the Watergate campaign-finance reforms, any candidate could qualify for public financing as long as they raised at least $5,000 from private donors in a minimum of 20 states. Carter had worked hard to make this happen, selling T-shirts and peanuts while organizing rock concerts with bands like the Allman Brothers to encourage small donations to his candidacy. Most important, Carter was a relentless campaigner. After announcing his candidacy on December 12, 1974, Carter campaigned for 260 days in 40 states and 250 cities—all before any votes were taken.

  53. 53
    Kent says:

    I’d love to see rotating regional primaries. Every 4 years a different region gets to start first. One year all the candidates get to tromp around rural New Mexico visiting reservations and barrios. The next time around they get to do Georgia and Mississippi first. And so forth.

    I too am tired of Iowa and New Hampshire. Although I’m not sure if we back-cast to past elections how different the results would really be. At least on the Dem side, how would things have been different if we had started in different states? I’m not really sure. For the most part the cream rose to the top regardless, at least with Bill Clinton and Obama.

    Rudy Guiliani did the skip Iowa and NH thing and look how that worked for him.

  54. 54
    Belafon says:

    @Adam L Silverman: The simplest check is this: What is her staff turnover compared to others in similar positions? That right there is going to be very important to a stable administration, and is a tell on how effective she would be as president. If it’s no different than anyone else, this is a moot topic.

  55. 55
    trollhattan says:

    @hells littlest angel:

    I just can’t understand what’s wrong with the other 17%.

    Stockholm syndrome?

  56. 56
    The Moar You Know says:

    How is that not disqualifying?

    @debit: Trump has women on staff (Hicks among others) whose job is to suck his dick when he feels like it. He wasn’t disqualified.

    I’d rather do dishes any day.

  57. 57
    WaterGirl says:

    @zhena gogolia: Good bosses delegate authority and make clear what kinds of things the boss wants/needs to be involved in or consulted about, and those bosses get the most out of the people that work for them. Everybody wins.

    Bad bosses delegate tasks and need/want to be involved in things that could be easily handled by others. With a micromanager, nobody wins.

  58. 58
    Yarrow says:

    @WaterGirl: Me too. The stories made her sound toxic and vindictive. That is not the same thing as being a hard ass.

    @West of the Cascades: She may be in one way, but how she is as a boss is a different issue. I see the job of President as having a lot of management responsibility. Being a good boss, knowing how to manage people and get the best out of them should be important. Bad bosses end up creating toxic, dysfunctional work environments. That doesn’t help the country. We don’t need more dysfunction in the WH.

  59. 59
    Brachiator says:

    @West of the Cascades:

    the article is a little dumb in assessing the racial makeup of the whole state and not the actual turnout of Democratic primary (or caucus) voters. But the bigger point – that Iowa and NH are anachronisms – seems valid.

    I see the point, but I’m not sure that it really matters all that much. And again, that Obama did so well in Iowa made people pay attention and may have contributed to his early momentum.

  60. 60
    AThornton says:

    @kindness:

    It’s a given California will go for Harris so the other campaigns will spend minimal time, money, and effort there.

  61. 61
    WaterGirl says:

    @Belafon: To answer your question — Amy K. has the highest staff turnover rate in congress. Or in the senate — I don’t recall that detail. But definitely the highest staff turnover in one of those two.

  62. 62
    geg6 says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The reporting also states that she is known to berate employees in graphic terms in front of other employees.

    That is the very definition of a toxic boss. And the fact that she was having trouble hiring due to her reputation gives me pause, too. I’m not saying that she is the person she’s been made out to be or that she is off my consideration list. But it’s a problem and I don’t think she has done a good job of addressing it.

  63. 63
    debit says:

    @The Moar You Know: Obviously Klobuchar is more qualified than Trump. My most recent bowel movement is more qualified than Trump. If that’s our baseline for “okay to be president” how do I go about nominating my pile of shit?

  64. 64
    Leto says:

    While we’re debating who should do the dishes, here’s a pretty good article about Madeleine Albright: Fascism: a warning from Madeleine Albright

    A seasoned US diplomat is not someone you’d expect to write a book with the ominous title Fascism: A Warning.

    But that is what Madeleine Albright, who served as the first female secretary of state from 1997 to 2001, has done — and it’s not a reassuring read. In it, she sounds the alarm about the erosion of liberal democracy, both in the US and across the world, and the rise of what she describes as a “fascist threat.”

    And yes, she talks about President Donald Trump.

    Which isn’t to say that Albright believes Trump is a fascist — that’s not a claim she makes in the book — but she clearly sees Trump as a manifestation of a deeper trend sweeping the globe.

    I spoke to Albright about that trend, why she fears the world is inching closer and closer to a genuine political crisis, and why, even though Trump exhibits so many of the characteristics of fascism she describes, she still isn’t willing to label him a fascist — at least not yet.

    A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.

  65. 65
  66. 66
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Klobuchar will have to defend against these charges but I’m not sure if they are serious enough to derail her campaign.

  67. 67
    kindness says:

    @AThornton: That isn’t a problem for me as Harris is up in my top 3.

  68. 68
    geg6 says:

    @rikyrah:

    The stories about contacting the future employers after employees had obtained other jobs- that bothers me a great deal.

    Glad you brought that up because, like berating employees in front of everyone, this is the very definition of a toxic boss.

  69. 69
    AThornton says:

    Turn it around.

    If South Carolina had been first in 2008 and Obama won it the media take would have been “Black man wins black vote but whites didn’t vote for him so he’s a loser in the general.”

  70. 70
    WaterGirl says:

    I got my tax information together and took it to the tax accountant today. Glad to have that done as I often spend 2 months putting that off and feeling guilty.

    Fun fact: I read today that banging your head against the wall for an hour uses 150 calories. I don’t know if that is actually true or not, but given how many times I have felt like banging my head against the wall recently, I thought that was interesting.

  71. 71
    trollhattan says:

    @geg6:
    “I just wanted you to know that Ms. Smith inappropriately mixed whites and reds in the wash and ruined several nice blouses. Have a nice day!”

  72. 72
    The Moar You Know says:

    Obviously Klobuchar is more qualified than Trump. My most recent bowel movement is more qualified than Trump. If that’s our baseline for “okay to be president” how do I go about nominating my pile of shit?

    @debit: I think we need to set up a PAC for it first. The we need a social media operation.

    I’m pretty sure we can at least get your pile of feces into Congress.

  73. 73
    eclare says:

    @Adam L Silverman: It has also been reported extensively that she rebukes staff publicly. That is a huge negative for me, not that I was a fan anyway.

  74. 74
    Yarrow says:

    Since this is an open thread, here’s an interesting photograph (you have to click through to see it) that includes people like Konstantin Kilimnik (under indictment by Mueller), Tad Devine (Wilmer’s campaign manager), Paul Manafort and Christian Ferry. Who’s Christian Ferry? Why, he managed Lindsey Graham’s 2016 presidential run!

    💰 Color coded money shot Christian Ferry – Blue arrow Kilimnik – Yellow, Tad Devine – Black, Manafort- Green, Phillip Griffin – Red pic.twitter.com/X8nBxwhkUf— Venture Capital (@kelly2277) August 13, 2018

  75. 75
    WaterGirl says:

    @geg6: The crazy lady I worked for at the non-profit berated me in public on three different occasions. The first time I was shocked, hurt and appalled. The second time I was angry and embarrassed. The third time I was absolutely furious.

  76. 76
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: That’s funny. I laughed out loud when it first came up. But I liked it better when just the images came up, before they spelled out “same meme, just gay”. I hope to god that there aren’t people in the world who could not figure that out without needing an explanation.

  77. 77
    The Moar You Know says:

    The stories about contacting the future employers after employees had obtained other jobs- that bothers me a great deal.

    @rikyrah: Hadn’t heard about this and find it astonishing. Here in CA, you do that and your former employee will have a big-bucks lawyer on full contingency by the end of the day, because that behavior in this state is a slam-dunk massive damages award. We rarely give references to anyone and on the rare occasion when we do, only positive ones.

    Guess that’s not the case everywhere.

  78. 78
    Brachiator says:

    @The Moar You Know:

    As others have noted, we wouldn’t be having a conversation about it if she were male. That behavior would simply be expected.

    I don’t know. If there were credible stories about any candidate, male or female, abusing their staff, it might affect how I thought about that candidate.

    At the local level here in California, mayors and county supervisors who regularly had staff run personal errands for them have been censured and had their behavior come up as campaign issues.

    There were rumors and some evidence that former California governor Gray Davis shouted at and threw objects at staffers, but serious investigation into this was stifled by the establishment.

  79. 79
    WaterGirl says:

    @Yarrow: They are all in it together, and everybody knew. I bet they spend a lot of time yucking it up about “how stupid the rubes are”.

  80. 80

    @WaterGirl: well, the joke the labels add is that you the viewer are cheating on the old meme with the gay one.

    @AThornton:

    It’s a given California will go for Harris so the other campaigns will spend minimal time, money, and effort there.

    I don’t get this. Second place in California will get you more delegates than winning Iowa.

  81. 81
    West of the Rockies says:

    @hells littlest angel:

    There are idiots of every race.

  82. 82
    Archon says:

    I think people need to pump their brakes on the “this only matters because she’s a women” comment regarding Klobushar. Some of these stories (if true) are disturbing and anyone running for President, man or woman should have to explain themselves regarding these complaints from staff.

  83. 83
    NotMax says:

    So both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats are somehow cut of inferior cloth and or viscerally incapable of making an informed choice?

  84. 84
    Yarrow says:

    @WaterGirl: My take on it is that they all separately did treason and thought they were so smart and special that no one would notice and they’d get away with it. And then they found out that everyone was doing it and oh, shit….

  85. 85
    Immanentize says:

    @guachi: Governor of Vermont is a Republican. Please use facts when trolling.

  86. 86
    Immanentize says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    2) Is her platform and proposed policies and the strategies to achieve them feasible, acceptable, and suitable?

    This is why I am no Klobuchar fan — she is pretty republican on many topics which suits her State, no doubt. And race and injustice just don’t seem to be on her radar (yet) which is a very big deal for me.

  87. 87
    Leto says:

    @Archon: The amount of misogyny leveled at women in news reporting hasn’t gone away (see example 1: HRC EMAILZ BENGAHZI ISIS LOW ENERGY WOMAN!) and that needs to be taken into account when reports like this come out. Healthy skepticism is good. You can keep an eye on this without falling down the rabbit hole. If credible reports come out that she’s a toxic micromanager, then that’s something we all need to know. If she’s just a tough boss, well most of us can move past that. But don’t discount the misogynistic press and their chance to shit on women and remind them of their place.

  88. 88
    Immanentize says:

    @The Moar You Know: How did Trump become the standard for what we find acceptable in a candidate?

  89. 89
    West of the Rockies says:

    @Leto:

    And in general, I’m already weary of the nay-saying: Booker is too nice and maybe gay (the horror); Klobuchar is a meanie; Harris was a prosecutor and thus a total tool; Beto is… Blah blah blah.

    I’m okay with the trashing of St. Bernie and Gabbard, but otherwise, a little patience might serve us well.

  90. 90
    Michael Cain says:

    @AThornton:

    It’s a given California will go for Harris so the other campaigns will spend minimal time, money, and effort there.

    Estimates for available delegates (the final numbers won’t be set until later) in the first four states: 185. Estimates for the number of delegates available in Texas (also on March 3): 262. Estimates for delegates available in California: 492. That’s more than 20% of the delegates a candidate needs to win. It’s more than all the delegates from Texas and the February Four put together. I don’t see how anyone who’s serious can afford to concede that many, and that much momentum, to Harris.

  91. 91
    mad citizen says:

    @Archon: Brachiator and Archon beat me to this, as I was reading this thread. I think it absolutely would still be a story in it was a man/Senator who was the bad/toxic boss. What I’m reading is disqualifying to me, but Harris is my current choice anyway.

    The regional rotating primaries is the way to go, except in years where it’s not really relevant, like reelection of a Dem President. It would be unfair for a region to waste its “firstness” in that case.

  92. 92
  93. 93
    H.E.Wolf says:

    @Leto:
    Amen.

    PS: Glad to see you posting more often! I hope that means your recovery is going smoothly.

    PPS: I’m saving myself a lot of stress in 2019 by focusing on 2020 Senate and House candidates instead of 2020 presidential candidates, and continuing my voter outreach volunteer work. This may not work for anyone else, but it suits me.

  94. 94
    tobie says:

    I don’t know enough about Klobuchar and her staff so I’m giving the story a pass for now. I don’t think it’s disqualifying to be a hard ass boss FWIW, but if she creates a hostile work environment, that’s another issue. She’s one of the most successful sitting Democratic Senators in getting legislation passed, and Elie Mystal said that in his 10 years of following Senate Judiciary hearings, she has stood out as the most prepared, so whatever the staff issues are, it hasn’t diminished her effectiveness. Right now, she’s my top choice but if Eric Holder declares I’ll be torn. I like him an awful lot. I’m also enthusiastic about Harris and Castro. I don’t like Warren because I find her brand of populism off-putting and I’m yet to hear her make any statement about what the jobs of the future will look like in an age of automation. I know this makes me a minority on this site but so be it. I’ve spent most of my life voting in the general for candidates I didn’t support in the primaries and this may well happen in 2020. I’ll be knocking on doors regardless.

  95. 95
    JoeyJoeJoe says:

    @Immanentize: Also, Vermont had two Republicans in the Senate until 1974. Pat Leahy is the only Democrat elected to the senate from the state since the civil war I believe. The state with the longest streak of having at least one Dem senator was Florida; now it’s either Rhode Island or Montana, I believe.

  96. 96
    rikyrah says:

    @Leto:

    If she’s just a tough boss, well most of us can move past that. But don’t discount the misogynistic press and their chance to shit on women and remind them of their place.

    The misogyny is why I gave the tough boss stories a shrug.

    But, I mean it…contacting the future employers of employees that have gotten out – –that bothers me on so many levels, I can’t even begin, and if we get total confirmation about her doing this -it would be disqualifying for me.

  97. 97
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @JoeyJoeJoe: I don’t know about Montana, but RI has had at least one Democrat in the Senate since 1935, if I’m reading correctly. The seat currently held by Jack Reed has been continuously in Democratic hands since 1937.

  98. 98
    Michael Cain says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Montana has had at least one Democrat in the US Senate since 1911.

  99. 99
    Kent says:

    @Michael Cain:

    It’s a given California will go for Harris so the other campaigns will spend minimal time, money, and effort there.

    California is not winner-take-all. The other candidates will all be there in a frantic race for 2nd place. The media will, of course, portray 2nd place as a win for whoever earns it with the accompanying momentum and all that. That is pretty much always what happens in state primaries where there is a favorite son local candidate. The media narrative is always to turn things into a race long past the point that an actual race exists.

  100. 100
    Leto says:

    @West of the Rockies: I’m taking it all with a grain of salt, except for St Wilmer and Gabbard. They can fuck right off. Booker does have the charter school issue, but past that the majority of the top tier D candidates are women so I’m suspect of the press. Hoesntly I can’t wait for more policy information to come out/evolve, and for some true debates to happen. I hope we don’t devolve into D eating D, thereby doing the Rethugs work, but I won’t hold my breath.

    @H.E.Wolf: Thanks! It’s just a day by day thing. Today I’m a bit more sparky, but overall I’m doing better. :)

    @rikyrah: Agreed; if she really did contact future bosses to slag employees… that would be instantly disqualifying. As always I’d like to see named sources, people who put their name to the allegation. I understand why people don’t but it’s still anonymous sourcing. Time will bear this out.

  101. 101
    tobie says:

    @Immanentize: Criminal justice reform was a big part of her announcement speech. I get that she’s not your top choice, which is fine, but are the ad hominem attacks (“she is pretty republican on many topics”) necessary? I have deliberately muted what are my substantive disagreements with some of Warren’s positions and tactics, because I’m trying not to piss on a potential Democratic nominee. If we work ourselves up into a lather at this early stage, we will never be able to coalesce around a candidate at the end of the primaries. The tone of this blog has changed a lot in the last few weeks and I come here less and less because of all of the mud-slinging. I don’t know how much the acrimony is fanned by trolls but it’s there.

  102. 102
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Michael Cain: Thanks.

  103. 103
    Michael Cain says:

    @Kent:

    California is not winner-take-all. The other candidates will all be there in a frantic race for 2nd place.

    Yeah. The other complication is that California will have early voting in the primary. The legislature hasn’t set the date yet, but expectations are California will start voting on the same day Iowa holds its caucuses. Also, in 2016 about 60% of the primary votes cast were cast by mail (California has a permanent no-excuse absentee ballot list). What do you do as a candidate — particularly a second-tier candidate, hoping that a good showing in February will bring in campaign cash — if you hear that the early votes are pouring in? Especially if the polls suggest Harris is doing great?

  104. 104
    AThornton says:

    Not being mentally retarded I know how many delegates California has.

    That doesn’t matter.

    Here’s how it works with a “Favorite Daughter” candidate.

    Harris will get the majority of the vote in each CD – call it x%. Everybody else will get 100 – x% divided by some function of the number of the rest of the pack. To get delegates requires a minimum of 15% of the vote in that CD. Harris should get a minimum of 350 of the soft pledged proportionally assigned delegates leaving, maybe, 66 divided between the second and third place finishers.

    Projected Totals:

    Harris – ~429 when adding in the Super Delegates
    Everybody else – ~66 <—- What the other campaigns are looking at

    I'm not saying the other campaigns will totally ignore California. Each will make their own assessment of the Cost/Benefit ratio of their candidate's time and money doing the Rubber Chicken Time in the various CDs.

  105. 105
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @The Moar You Know: it’s risky to give good references to some former employees there, as the failure to give a reference then becomes a de facto negative reference.

    Sometimes I’m an employment lawyer as well as a labor lawyer!

  106. 106
    Victor Matheson says:

    No arguments from me that we may wish to dump New Hampshire and Iowa, but there are two important points here.

    First, the fact that they are relatively small states gives smaller candidates the chance to compete with deep pocketed candidates who can afford to advertise in major markets.

    Second, just because the states look like Republicans doesn’t mean the Democratic voters in those states who participate in the primaries look like Republicans.

  107. 107
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Apparently a joke with two layers, and I completely missed one of them. thanks

  108. 108
    WaterGirl says:

    @Leto: For what it’s worth, I consider the Pod Save America folks who worked closely with Barack Obama to be credible sources on this, and they say that they have known for years that she has this reputation. To me, that says that even though she is a woman, there is more than smoke here.

    When I was a grocery store cashier putting myself through college, I was buds with one of the baggers. He felt he was being mistreated because he was black – how do you distinguish between the cause being because you are black (female, gay, etc) or the “girls” in the office treating everyone like shit.

    It’s the same thing here. Everyone who didn’t like Clinton didn’t dislike her because of her gender, though gender was part of the reason that SOME people disliked her.

    For me — with credible sources talking about terrible behavior like public attacks of employees and contacting new employers to get them to rescind the officer of a new job — that disqualifies her from my vote in the primaries, and it has absolutely nothing to do with her gender. Lucky for me, she’s not on my short list in the primaries anyway, so it doesn’t impact my choice. Too conservative for my tastes, and nothing (yet) compelling about her story.

    I will always love her, though, for coming out for Barack Obama very early in 2007, and she had just been senator since 2006. Amy K and Claire McCaskill — forever in their debt for that.

  109. 109
    sgrAstar says:

    @Adam L Silverman: “Reporting” also says that she publicly humiliated staffers, threw things, and attempted to derail former staffers’ careers. I’d like to see all of the claims about Klobuchar be discussed in the open, not behind a veil of anonymity. Otherwise, there’s no ‘there’ there.

  110. 110
    Richard Guhl says:

    @Michael Cain: Especially since, California mails out its ballots for vote by mail on the same day as the Iowa caucus!

  111. 111
    J R in WV says:

    @rikyrah:

    I still remember that night. The world was stunned, particularly Black folks. I still remember my late mother’s reaction.

    Having been born and raised in the Police State known as Jim Crow Mississippi…

    Barack Obama winning IOWA…was beyond stunning.

    I’m so glad your mom lived to see Barack winning elections !!

    It was so amazing, I was — we were so happy!

    Old white guy here, and I still remember and think about those wonderful days to help me cope with current tragic events~!!~

  112. 112
    J R in WV says:

    @WaterGirl:

    @ruemara: A toxic, vindictive male boss would get my attention in a heartbeat. That is totally different from being a hard ass.

    Had a newly appointed toxic boss, within a matter of a couple of days he was universally known as squirrel weasel. Hyper, always correct, micro-manager in areas where he had no expertise or training. Did not last long, got a promotion to another state agency in education, far, far away.

    Do not want or need a presidential candidate like that, will not support at all. Anyone else will be better. Senator K Harris is my current favorite declared candidate…

  113. 113
    Richard Guhl says:

    @AThornton: All the candidates will face the hard choice of how they will spend their two most precious resources — time and money. They can slog through snow and slush going to Iowa firehalls and New Hampshire diners or they can bet on the media markets of California. And if they go the latter route, then they need to plunge headlong into the other Super Tuesday states. No wonder Kamala Harris has established her East Coast hq in North Carolina.

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