Kevin Drum has taken my Steele dossier analysis and made some evaluations of the claims. Here’s what he came up with:
It looks about right to me.
Kevin:
Aside from three oddball claims that I couldn’t really classify (6, 7, and 19 if you’re counting), it looks to me like the dossier includes 15 claims that are now fully or partially supported and 27 claims for which we have no evidence so far. These 27 claims include a fair amount of insider Kremlin gossip.
What I found most interesting is this: although there’s no public evidence one way or the other for these 27 claims,² there doesn’t appear to be a single claim that we know with certainty is false. There are claims that have been denied by the American participants, but none that we have documentary proof of being mistaken. Partly this is because it’s hard to prove a negative, but it’s still surprising that not a single claim in the report has been conclusively debunked. It’s especially surprising since the dossier is a patchwork of raw intelligence, and even if it was well done by competent professionals you’d still expect it to include at least a few claims that, two years later, we could say were categorically wrong.
Emptywheel, however, feels that I’m missing evidence against some of the claims. I’ve suggested that she and talk about it offline.
And open thread!
Baud
Cat fight!
cain
please.. Cheryl would win.
Doug R
Maybe you two can team up on a cross-posting? Synergy!
Yarrow
Steele ran the Russia desk at MI6. He’s good at what he does.
Baud
@Doug R: Collusion even.
Gbbalto
We’ll get to top 10000 blog status now.
Seriously, Cheryl, thank you for the time and effort you put into informing us on sundry subjects, and congrats on getting featured by Drum and Emptywheel!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
MT links to trump’s tweets claiming that Isikoff has backed him up on the Steele dossier. I”m not going to listen to a whole podcast, but it looks like Isikoff was talking about “the more sensational aspects” of the dossier. At least he didn’t trot out “salacious”. Could we grow the fuck up and when we’re talking about the pee tape, just call it the pee tape.
eclare
@Gbbalto: Yes, congratulations!
lamh36
RIP Penny Marshall!
Not just an iconic acting character like Laverne, but also the director of some pretty iconic films…like Big and one of the BEST baseball movies ever with one of the GREATEST scenes ever. I still tell folks who cry excessively…”there’s no crying in baseball” LOL
There’s No Crying in Baseball – A League of Their Own (5/8) Movie CLIP (… youtu.be/6M8szlSa-8o via @YouTube
lamh36
@lamh36: Not only that, but two of the “Black films” that Black folks especially love and remember fondly….Jumping Jack Flash AND The Preacher’s Wife with Whitney and Denzel!
Jumping Jack Flash, directed by Penny Marshall. One of my top 5 Whoopi Goldberg movies!!!
RIP Penny Marshall!
Shredder Fight (1986) HD youtu.be/B6-nYQbUteA via @YouTube
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Let’s use the French “la video d’urine.” Sounds classier.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: “No law against collusion.”*
*Esteemed legal scholar Rudolph Giuliani.
lamh36
@lamh36: @MatthewACherry
3h3 hours ago
More
Imagine A League Of Their Own sequel that starts with the scene of the black woman throwing the ball back from the stands and you stay with her and it becomes a biopic on the 3 black women that played in the Negro Leagues (Toni Stone, Mami “Peanut” Johnson & Connie Morgan).
gwangung
@lamh36: Wow. That’s right.
So….why wasn’t she honored more?
Baud
www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/mueller-mystery-grand-jury-appeal/index.html
Gin & Tonic
I wonder why Drum says that the Cohen Prague trip is “unlikely to be true.” I have traveled to Prague several times in the last decade, and have no Czech stamps in my passport – because EU borders are just lines on a map these days. Prague is less than a 4 hour drive from Vienna, and less than a 5 hour drive from Frankfurt.
lamh36
Any lawyers want to suggest what Flynn’s lawyers thought they could get? Was this all about getting a pardon from Chump? Since Chump still seems to like Flynn?
ETA: Many folks saying Flynn was trying to save some good graces with the Right
dnfree
This is an awesome effort, and glad to see it is getting noticed and expanded. Thanks!
Yutsano
@lamh36: Whoopi will be a mess tomorrow on “The View”. She had a habit of staying close with the folks she worked with in the past, and I believe Penny was one of them.
Not to mention that’s one of my favourite movies growing up. And now that I think about it, was quite progressive in outlook.
Cheryl Rofer
@Gin & Tonic: Nothing has ruled out a trip to Prague by Cohen, but there’s very little evidence for it, only one claim that Kevin references by McClatchy that Mueller knows about it. I have to say that I’m a bit dubious too.
JAFD
Hello again!
Getting better slow but sure. Home ‘net still non-reconnectd, so sending this via Univ Hosp wwifi.
Happy Holidays to you and all of yours and all ye world’s Juicers, actual and potential.
Yutsano
@gwangung: Here comes the posthumous Oscar…
Gin & Tonic
@Cheryl Rofer: Maybe I’m splitting hairs, but “unlikely to be true” and “very little evidence” don’t feel like the same thing to me. Cohen seemed to go out of his way to deny that specific claim, and to do so as ineptly as possible.
lamh36
Kraux Pas
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
But what if you are colluding in something…illegal…?
lamh36
@gwangung: well she was on of the first “lady directors” and we know how even now Hollywood can be dicks
lamh36
@Yutsano: Definitely. To be quite honest, I used to watch The View even with the original lineup…but I stopped years ago…when I did go back to it, it was because of Whoopi Goldberg. I think folks kinda forget just how BIG a deal Whoopi Goldberg was for a time, legend and icon should not be used lightly, but they BOTH apply to Whoopi for sure!
Yutsano
@lamh36: At least we can say Garry supported her the whole time. They never seemed to compete against each other and remained close.
Yutsano
@lamh36: I love how people think Whoopi ended up there because she was “washed out”. Try again. This was her second act in life.
Baud
@JAFD: Not sure what happened but feel better.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Kraux Pas: You’ll have to ask Rudy about that, I’m just a poor photographer.
SiubhanDuinne
@JAFD:
Happy holidays to you, too! Glad you’re improving, and hope it continues every day.
The Thin Black Duke
@lamh36: Exactly. The only reason Penny got the opportunity to direct Big was because everybody else Hollywood offered it to turned it down.
germy
lamh36
Uh…huh…so Faux News was touting the Black judge before Flynn’s hearing…now I’m betting they gonna treat him like “just another Black guy” now…
trollhattan
@lamh36:
In an ironic twist, Dersh again gets invited to parties in the Hamptons so that people can acknowledge the lengths to which he’d go to get laid.
Still amazed Epstein didn’t pull at least a decade in the slammer.
satby
@JAFD: been thinking about you JAFD , and hoping the recovery has been going well. Keep plugging through rehab, it really helps in the long run. We’ll have happy holidays knowing you’re still with us and getting better!
piratedan
@Baud: my guess would be Deutsche Banke…. that was the first banker indicted and where Kennedy’s kid was working, just a guess but there are oodles of possibilities
lamh36
@Yutsano: Right…I always laugh at folks who think that. She isn’t a box office draw. She doesn’t even do much acting anymore and I don’t belive she does ANY standup anymore…but when she was in her prime…she was a BIG draw…hell there’s a reason she’s hosted the Oscars so much. And even when she wasn’t the Sister Act franchise and Broadway musical set her for life. She doesn’t need The View as much as The View needs her.
Kraux Pas
So, since open thread, I’m just gonna throw this out there.
I’ve been subjected to the argument for the last couple days that opposition to laws that disproportionately impact people of color, voter ID laws for example, is racist because it basically says such people are not competent to do basic things like get an ID. Also, too, welfare is racist because we are saying people of color can’t feed themselves.
I can’t even so much that I had to share.
Aleta
@lamh36: Aw no! She was so funny.
@JAFD: You too. Hope you keep feeling better every week.
satby
@lamh36: though I admire all she accomplished, Penny Marshall was far from one of the first female movie directors. And that article doesn’t even mention Ida Lupino.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I remember a few years ago the Oscars show did a little clip segment featuring past hosts and they left out…. Whoopi Goldberg, the only Oscar host who was actually an Oscar winner.
Aleta
@Kraux Pas: They used to claim (maybe still do) that supporters of abortion rights were racist. They’ll use any argument to undercut human rights.
lamh36
germy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Whoopi was great in the recent Beatles documentary:
youtube.com/watch?v=d3Lq0XDgKHQ
satby
@Aleta:
That’s actually very funny, because the pro-life movement early on was (and I’m sure still is) quite open about their racism. An early argument against abortion used by their campus speakers in the 1970s was that educated white women were the ones who got abortions, black and Hispanic women didn’t and so the U.S. would be overrun with people of color all having babies. They never picketed the PP clinic near to my home in Chicago in the 90s, because it was in a black neighborhood.
Always projection with the reichwing.
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
Marshall wasn’t the first female director, you’re quite right. But Hollywood uses money as a primary metric, and she was the first woman to direct a movie that grossed over $100 million.
lamh36
@satby: ok…not one of the first EVER…doesn’t negate what I said about her being a “lady director” and how Hollywood STILL treat female directors…
ETA: @SiubhanDuinne: exactly…thank you
lamh36
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Lordt…thank goodness I missed that. She was one of the best host for the Oscars ever.
I mean now that there is a vacancy…I mean why not have Whoopi and Billy come back one last time?
Aleta
Thanks Cheryl for starting further discussion. It’s a thing I like about the internet when it happens. And curse when it doesn’t.
SiubhanDuinne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Holee … SRSLY? … I just can’t even ….
SiubhanDuinne
@lamh36:
Sounds like a great idea! Why ever not?
Kathleen
@lamh36: I’m glad you posted that tweet. The thread was fascinating. I would love to see a movie about those 3 women players. And the female owners of some of the teams!
Kathleen
@lamh36: I love Whoopi. She’s also an EGOT! Adore her in Sister Act.
Ohio Mom
That pie chart is SO Kevin Drum. No one likes making charts and graphs as much as he does. He must have been excited when he realized he could make Cheryl’s thoughts into a nice segmented circle.
A while back, he was diagnosed with multiple myeloma. He’s responding well to the treatment — which periodically documents with an updated graph.
ruemara
@Kraux Pas: I hope whoever you were arguing with has a bag of elephant poop fall on them.
Burnspbesq
@lamh36:
It’s not hard to imagine sex with Dershowitz being even worse than sex with Trump.
There isn’t enough brain bleach in the known universe.
Barbara
@germy: There must be some point where they lose both viewers and advertisers and wither away and die.
Ohio Mom
@Kraux Pas: Whatever is the “welfare” your acquaintance is referring to — there are a number of safety net programs but none have that title — more white people are on the rolls than members of any minority group. But you already knew that.
You can’t convince people like that with facts, they repel facts.