Friday Morning Open Thread: We’re Right, The GOP Is Wrong

(hat tip Mr. Pierce)

Meanwhile, across the aisle…

For the sake of my extremely modest 401(k), I take comfort in WaPo economist Jared Bernstein’s advice:

So: tune out the market volatility, keep on eye not just on recession probabilities but on slowing growth, watch oil and its impact on real wages (+) and investment (-), and for Keynes’s sake, don’t listen to Trump!

118 replies
  1. 1
    satby says:

    Tariff Man cost me $1k this week in the IRA I inherited from my mom. It’s not a lot of money to begin with, so that’s pretty painful. Especially considering it didn’t need to happen at all, it was a direct outcome of Tariff Man’s gross incompetence.

    ReplyReply
  2. 2
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Donald Trump now owns 10 of the Dow’s top 20 worst single-day declines in stock market history…

    So much winning.
    Blech.

    ReplyReply
  3. 3
    Platonailedit says:

    Unfortunately, this twit’s all earlier lying tweets against Obama have come back true to bite the murkans in their collective ass.

    ReplyReply
  4. 4
    Betty Cracker says:

    @satby: Yep — for once, Trump can rightly take credit for stock market performance since the free fall on Tuesday happened when investors found out he lied about the “deal” with China. Turns out putting a pathological liar in the White House is bad for business!

    ReplyReply
  5. 5
    Platonailedit says:

    Shortest Oscar host prize goes to Kevin Hart. Pun was intended.

    ReplyReply
  6. 6
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Can somebody please give this seal a tissue?

    ReplyReply
  7. 7
    Immanentize says:

    A morning thread! Good morning All!

    ReplyReply
  8. 8
    Baud says:

    This is why I got out. Don’t want to deal with the volatility.

    ReplyReply
  9. 9
    Derelict says:

    Donald Trump voice: “Those reports of the stock market falling ar fake news! Don’t you believe it. The DOW is at 36,000 and going up every day–just ask my economics adviser Larry Kudlow! He wrote a book about that. But it’s all fake news because all of you have $1 million in your 401(k) because the media hates me and is the enemy of your investment!”

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  10. 10
    Immanentize says:

    @satby: I’ve lost about 8% in my TIAA account this year. And that is while I continue to make my maximum contributions. Ugh. I really need to rebalance toward bonds, but I was hoping for a small rally before that happened. At this point, I really think the best thing for the markets would be Trump’s removal. But that will be ugly. Unless,
    “The CIA, the Cubans and the Underworld Bosses,
    decided that was it, they have to cut their losses”

    ReplyReply
  11. 11
    JGabriel says:

    Donald Trump via Anne Laurie @ Top:

    If the DOW drops 1,000 points in two days the President should be impeached immediately.

    What are we waiting for? Let’s get cracking, Dems! Those rats aren’t gonna fuck impeach themselves!

    Reporters should be confronting Trump with this quote and asking if he’ll resign, or if impeachment proceedings should be brought against him.

    Since Trump will, of course, deny he ever wrote that tweet, it should be done in a setting (studio interview maybe?) where he, and the audience, can be shown/confronted with a graphic, or other evidence, of the tweet.

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  12. 12
    Immanentize says:

    @Baud:
    Mattress stuffed with fiat?

    ReplyReply
  13. 13
    Betty Cracker says:

    Did anyone see NC GOP chairman Dallas Woodhouse making the rounds on last night’s news programs to make excuses for the rampant fraud his party’s sleazy operatives perpetrated in the NC 9th? He’s got a Pharma Bro-level Backpfeifengesicht (face that cries out for a fist).

    Anyhoo, my hubby is a liberal but not as into politics as I am, and he occasionally accuses me of being hyperpartisan in my comments on how the networks coddle Republicans, etc. Well, last night, CNN and MSNBC demonstrated the truth of my complaints in their treatment of Woodhouse.

    While I was cooking dinner, hubby was watching Erin Burnett, who asked Woodhouse some tough questions but allowed him to babble a bunch of half-assed excuses uncontested. I grumbled about that, and hubby said I was being a hyperpartisan again.

    Not 10 minutes later, we’d switched to MSNBC, and Woodhouse appeared on the Chris Hayes program. Hayes called bullshit on Woodhouse’s excuses and “both sides” obfuscations, bringing up facts that Burnett never bothered to mention about Woodhouse’s own failure to address an obvious fraud and leaving the sleazy bastard sputtering inanely.

    I love it when events vindicate my opinions in real time. That happened once when we were walking between two enclosures containing small herds of llamas at Busch Gardens. I said I hoped they wouldn’t spit on us, and my husband, my sister and a friend who was with us laughed at the suggestion that llamas could spit.

    Seconds later, two llamas started spitting at each other across the sidewalk that bisected their separate enclosures, and many humans (not us, fortunately) were caught in the crossfire. All I could say was HA! Toldja!

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  14. 14
    Jay C says:

    Seen some reports around that don’t bode well for any trade talks with China. NSA John ( The Mustache Of
    Belligerence) Bolton said that he was aware of the arrest in Canada of Chinese tech giant Huawei’s CFO at the US’ behest – ostensibly for evading Iran sanctions- but that President Trump had not been informed. While he (Trump) was meeting with President Xi to discuss trade.
    A simple oversight, perhaps, but Bolton also seemed to suggest that the arrest of Meng Wanzhou might be used as a “lever” in negotiations: which sounds to me an awful lot like official hostage-taking as a trade- negotiation strategy.
    But then, this IS the Trump Admin…..

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  15. 15
    evodevo says:

    @Betty Cracker: Yes, they CAN spit and frequently do lol

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  16. 16
    Immanentize says:

    @Jay C: At some point, maybe this evening, I will write up a comment on extradition and rendering….

    ReplyReply
  17. 17
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Betty Cracker: Instant karma is a blessing. (doesn’t exactly apply here but you get the idea)

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  18. 18
    rikyrah says:

    Good Morning, Everyone 😄😄😄

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  19. 19
    satby says:

    @Baud: @Immanentize: my mom had it in a G&I fund so it was already invested fairly conservatively, but the hassles of changing it combined with the rules on inherited IRA’s have made me reluctant to mess with it. It’s in a mandatory withdrawal status too, because my mom was 85 when she died, so I use it to pay property taxes every year. But if this insanity continues I may just pull it all and deal with the taxes and stuff.

    ReplyReply
  20. 20
    JPL says:

    @Immanentize: That would make for interesting Friday night reading.
    If I were an American executive in China, I would head to the airport and to return home.

    ReplyReply
  21. 21
    satby says:

    @rikyrah: Good morning rikyrah 🙋!

    ReplyReply
  22. 22
    Immanentize says:

    @JPL: It’s is hard to fight extradition from Canada based on a US indictment. But the Trump gang is making it possible with their hostage talk.

    ReplyReply
  23. 23

    @Betty Cracker: For your morning trivia, the original Busch Gardens was on the Busch estate in Pasadena, CA. It was open to the public.

    ReplyReply
  24. 24
    Immanentize says:

    @JPL:
    Like Warren Anderson did — CEO of Union Carbide (now part of Dow Chem.) After UC’s plant in Bohpol, India dumped poison killing thousands and cruelly injuring thousands more? Anderson was in India at the time, agreed to show up to Court later, then fled to Connecticut to live out his happy, very rich life.

    That is a great extradition matter….

    ReplyReply
  25. 25
    JPL says:

    @Immanentize: What were they thinking when they equated her arrest to a hostage situation. Drop the tariffs or else is not diplomacy.

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  26. 26
    Chetan Murthy says:

    @JPL:

    What were they thinking

    They’re thinking like gangsters, not like policemen. Sigh.

    ReplyReply
  27. 27
    Immanentize says:

    @JPL: Every relationship with the Trump people is transactional. Truer words never spoken.

    Of course they are wrong, about that. Canada doesn’t entirely believe that.

    ReplyReply
  28. 28
    JGabriel says:

    OzarkHillbilly:

    Can somebody please give this seal a tissue?

    Guardian via Ozark Hillbilly Link:

    Now the beleaguered [seals are] facing an unexpected new challenge – eels getting stuck up their noses. … “If I had to guess, I would say that it’s one of those strange oddities,” Littnan said. “If you observe nature long enough, you’ll see strange things.”

    This is the kind of willful human self-blindness that the ironist in me just loves.

    I mean, seriously, if you observe human nature for five minutes, you’ll see strange things.

    Just to prove my point, within a minute of reading the article on seal nasal eels, I found the article on foreskin facial treatments because they were published on the same site within 8 hours of each other.

    People IZ strange. (I’d have added a link to the Doors “People are Strange” there, but I ran out of links for this post.)

    (Oh, hey, there’s an idea for the new site design – raise the link per comment limit from 3 to 5.)

    ReplyReply
  29. 29
    Immanentize says:

    @JGabriel:
    I vaguely remember a joke about a Ron Popeil (Ronco!) foreskin wallet — stroke it and it becomes a brief case!

    PS. I read the linked article. Now I know what Mohels do for a side business.

    ReplyReply
  30. 30
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah: Good morning.

    ReplyReply
  31. 31
    JGabriel says:

    @Immanentize: I just don’t think any human¹ is in a position to mock the seal’s accidental nasal eel for being strange, not when humans are apparently doing the foreskin facial thing on purpose.

    (¹I’m looking at you, Charles Littman, lead scientist at the NOAA Hawaiian Monk Seal research program.)

    ReplyReply
  32. 32
    A Ghost To Most says:

    The epic Twitter storm we’ve been expecting is underway.

    He’s come undone.

    ReplyReply
  33. 33
    debbie says:

    @Platonailedit:

    Not even Trump is immune from the Law of the Universe: You get back what you put out. How stupid can a person be to think he can spew bile for years and then be treated respectfully when he comes to power?

    We counterpunch too, baby!

    ReplyReply
  34. 34
    JPL says:

    @A Ghost To Most: Just in case folks are curious, you can read trump’s tweets here
    https://twitter.com/RealPressSecBot

    ReplyReply
  35. 35
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    We jackals love to bitch and moan about the present state of our country, but we’re still a far cry from Venezuela.

    Top chavista officials deny their citizens are going hungry and have called the migration crisis fake news. A visit to the one-room hovel Ivan Henríquez shares with his wife and six children in the city of Barquisimeto gives the lie to those claims. “They are living in a parallel world,” the 35-year-old says of the daily churn of disinformation on state TV.

    As Venezuela’s crisis has deepened over the past year, Henríquez, like millions of his fellow citizens, has found it increasingly hard to feed his family, let alone himself. “I used to weigh something like 70kg – now I’m 50kg, or less,” he says, showing the contents of their pantry: a half-empty sack of maize and a plastic bag filled with a few sticks of cassava.

    Outside, in a rubbish-strewn garden, his children – aged from 11 months to 13 – study around a table fashioned from a broken door with breezeblocks as legs.

    Henríquez says his family survive thanks to a $20 monthly remittance from his brother in Chile. But hyperinflation – which the IMF fears could hit 10,000,000% next year – meant that was becoming increasingly tough.

    “So many people are dying of hunger in this country … children are dying because of malnutrition,” he says, lowering his voice to avoid his own offspring overhearing that bleak assessment.

    Henríquez blames his family’s plight on an ideological clash from which his country’s leaders have refused to step back. “Venezuelans are stuck in the middle of a war that isn’t theirs.”

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  36. 36
    MomSense says:

    All this winning is exhausting. If only there had been some way to predict that a business man who is really bad at business would also be bad at managing our economy. I blame the media, too. There was plenty of material for them to cover before the election but they chose not to.

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  37. 37
    JPL says:

    @A Ghost To Most: There’s a woman in charge of prosecuting Corsi? Wouldn’t Corsi have to be indicted first. wtf is he even saying

    ReplyReply
  38. 38
    Quinerly says:

    @A Ghost To Most: he has left us hanging in mid sentence. Maybe he has been tranquilized? Long wait for this 5th tweet.

    ReplyReply
  39. 39
    Matt McIrvin says:

    I kind of hate the “record single-day declines” thing going around, just because points on the Dow are meaningless–they’re record point declines because the Dow had a huge rally last year. Every President’s administration probably has some of the record-setting single-day declines in the stock market just because the numbers keep going up over the long term. It’s percentage decline that’s important.

    And every time people repost that, the right-wingers get to point out that we’re being innumerate, and they do.

    ReplyReply
  40. 40
    Baud says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    There was a random comment from a foreigner on Reddit a while back who couldn’t believe we were still a functioning country with everything that’s going on with Trump. It could be (and can get) a lot worse.

    ReplyReply
  41. 41
    Baud says:

    @Matt McIrvin: You’re right but they would do it to us. Sometimes you can’t control what’s effective.

    ReplyReply
  42. 42
    NotMax says:

    Someone needs to make a “Friday! Friday! Friday!” audio file available, done in the exact style and cadence of the auto racing Sunday! ad slogan.

    ReplyReply
  43. 43
    debbie says:

    @satby:

    I pulled mine after 2008. Not that there was much to pull at that point. I’m not making much now, but at least I won’t be losing it.

    ReplyReply
  44. 44
    Platonailedit says:

    @MomSense: The media mofos happily colluded with the traitorous thug. Fucking fifth columnists.

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  45. 45
    Matt McIrvin says:

    (Speaking of which: Yahoo Finance used to have an option to chart stocks on a logarithmic scale, and I don’t know why they took it away. It made so much more sense than anything else.)

    ReplyReply
  46. 46
    debbie says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    Should there be a link?

    ReplyReply
  47. 47
    debbie says:

    @Jay C:

    What kind of magical thinking must it have taken to think this was a good idea?

    ReplyReply
  48. 48
    CliosFanboy says:

    We moved 95% of our 401K to safe harbors in early 2017. We’re both near retirement age so it made sense…

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  49. 49
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Matt McIrvin:

    the right-wingers get to point out that we’re being innumerate, and they do.

    Yeah but it’s their president who likes to brag so much about the stock market. Somebody should point that out to them.

    In other words, fuck the innumerate right and their deficit exploding tax cuts..

    ReplyReply
  50. 50
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Baud: Things can always get worse, and about half the time they do.

    ReplyReply
  51. 51
    Platonailedit says:

    @Matt McIrvin: So, rw’ers calling the left as innumerate? Their usual projection, who gives a shit?

    ReplyReply
  52. 52

    Here you go…

    Robert Mueller and Leakin’ Lyin’ James Comey are Best Friends, just one of many Mueller Conflicts of Interest. And bye the way, wasn’t the woman in charge of prosecuting Jerome Corsi (who I do not know) in charge of “legal” at the corrupt Clinton Foundation? A total Witch Hunt…

    ….Will Robert Mueller’s big time conflicts of interest be listed at the top of his Republicans only Report. Will Andrew Weissman’s horrible and vicious prosecutorial past be listed in the Report. He wrongly destroyed people’s lives, took down great companies, only to be……..

    …..overturned, 9-0, in the United States Supreme Court. Doing same thing to people now. Will all of the substantial & many contributions made by the 17 Angry Democrats to the Campaign of Crooked Hillary be listed in top of Report. Will the people that worked for the Clinton….

    ….Foundation be listed at the top of the Report? Will the scathing document written about Lyin’ James Comey, by the man in charge of the case, Rod Rosenstein (who also signed the FISA Warrant), be a big part of the Report? Isn’t Rod therefore totally conflicted? Will all of….

    …the lying and leaking by the people doing the Report, & also Bruce Ohr (and his lovely wife Molly), Comey, Brennan, Clapper, & all of the many fired people of the FBI, be listed in the Report? Will the corruption within the DNC & Clinton Campaign be exposed?..And so much more!

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  53. 53

    Poor Molly.

    …the lying and leaking by the people doing the Report, & also Bruce Ohr (and his lovely wife Molly), Comey, Brennan, Clapper, & all of the many fired people of the FBI, be listed in the Report? Will the corruption within the DNC & Clinton Campaign be exposed?..And so much more!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 7, 2018

    I see Don Lemon’s show was evacuated last night over a bomb threat. Good going driving that Enemy of the People out of the building, Donny.

    ReplyReply
  54. 54
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Platonailedit: It matters that it’s true in this case.

    ReplyReply
  55. 55
    Platonailedit says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Isn’t it used to be 7 angry democrats? When did more angry dems joined the posse?

    ReplyReply
  56. 56
    Schlemazel says:

    Donny Dollhands is going nuts on Twitter this AM & it makes me want to post tis link
    https://www.poemuseum.org/the-tell-tale-heart

    until, at length, I found that the noise was not within my ears. No doubt I now grew very pale; –but I talked more fluently, and with a heightened voice. Yet the sound increased –and what could I do? It was a low, dull, quick sound –much such a sound as a watch makes when enveloped in cotton. I gasped for breath –and yet the officers heard it not. I talked more quickly –more vehemently; but the noise steadily increased. I arose and argued about trifles, in a high key and with violent gesticulations; but the noise steadily increased. Why would they not be gone? I paced the floor to and fro with heavy strides, as if excited to fury by the observations of the men –but the noise steadily increased. Oh God! what could I do? I foamed –I raved –I swore! I swung the chair upon which I had been sitting, and grated it upon the boards, but the noise arose over all and continually increased. It grew louder –louder –louder! And still the men chatted pleasantly, and smiled. Was it possible they heard not? Almighty God! –no, no! They heard! –they suspected! –they knew!

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  57. 57
    Quinerly says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: It’s so creepy how he keeps referring to the wife. Pretty sure her name is Nelly.

    ReplyReply
  58. 58
    Platonailedit says:

    @Matt McIrvin:
    I am sure it does for you . You were always concerned about dems.

    ReplyReply
  59. 59

    @Platonailedit: I think he’s increased the number as Mueller added staff.

    ReplyReply
  60. 60

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    Luna almighty. This is not even close to the most deranged gibberish he’s said, but it’s up there near the top of spittle-flecked rants. Racist Uncle feels the noose tightening for sure. This is a classic narcissist ‘How dare you catch me’ speech.

    ReplyReply
  61. 61
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    @JGabriel:

    “We’ve been intensively monitoring monk seals for four decades and in all of that time nothing like this has happened,” said Charles Littnan, the lead scientist at Noaa’s Hawaiian monk seal research program. “Now it’s happened three or four times and we have no idea why.”

    Peer pressure. “Hey guys, you oughta try this!”

    Only half joking. I recently read Frans de Waal’s book Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are? and have a lot more respect for the idea that many species have cognition and local cultural customs.

    ReplyReply
  62. 62
    JPL says:

    @Quinerly: He’s creepy. I wonder if Corsi is going to be indicted today, since he referred to his prosecution.

    ReplyReply
  63. 63
    Baud says:

    Most criminals don’t get daily updates about the progress of the investigation against them. Might drive me insane too.

    ReplyReply
  64. 64
    Procopius says:

    @Betty Cracker: Well, the idea of running government like a business is probably the fourth or fifth worst idea in politics. Businessmen mostly lie, cheat, and steal, and pollute the environment. There are glaring exceptions, of course, but they are about as common as real Christians. I consider Peter Thiel the norm.

    ReplyReply
  65. 65
    CliosFanboy says:

    @Platonailedit: I was thinking the same thing. Screw them. they’re about as good with numbers as a blind monkey in a washing machine.. (I have no idea what that means)

    ReplyReply
  66. 66
    JPL says:

    The president is departing the White House at 9 in order to fly to Kansas City, MO to deliver remarks at the Project Safe Neighborhoods National Conference Whitaker is suppose to join him on the flight, and let me add god/dog help us all. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

    ReplyReply
  67. 67
    Platonailedit says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    What a fucking nutjob of a whacko.

    ReplyReply
  68. 68
    NotMax says:

    It’s A Wonderful Life, the modern version, wherein Dolt 45 discovers everything – EVERYTHING – would be bigly better without him.

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  69. 69
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    @Schlemazel: Heh. So glad I’ve got other people quoting that.

    Pace yourself, friend. It’s a short tale and we have a lot of unraveling still to go.

    Although today is the release of a couple more big sentencing statements, isn’t it?

    ReplyReply
  70. 70
    Schlemazel says:

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:
    I am disturbed by the joy I get from his agony.

    But that joy is negated by the damage I know he is doing with this shit

    ReplyReply
  71. 71
    rikyrah says:

    @Betty Cracker:
    Tell that truth, BC

    ReplyReply
  72. 72
    CarolDuhart2 says:

    @Baud: I knew from the beginning I would be thanking Federalism. A lot of the levers aren’t in his hands, and we have non-partisan civil servants for the fact that things can still run at all. Local entities and federal entities has money and skills Trump can’t even begin to touch.

    ReplyReply
  73. 73
    Quinerly says:

    @JPL: It would be a great ending to another fast paced Infrastructure Week!

    ReplyReply
  74. 74
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @JPL: Thanx for the warning. (checks watch) Plenty of time to get out of the state.

    ReplyReply
  75. 75
    rikyrah says:

    @A Ghost To Most:
    You all read him so that the rest of us don’t have to 😄

    ReplyReply
  76. 76
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    Although today is the release of a couple more big sentencing statements, isn’t it?

    Most likely highly redacted sentencing statements.

    ReplyReply
  77. 77
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    May be a record setter for an Air Force One plane – carrying most brain dead presidents in a single week.

    ReplyReply
  78. 78
    NotMax says:

    @NotMax

    Oopsie. That was a reply to JPL.

    ReplyReply
  79. 79
    rikyrah says:

    @Jay C:
    Did we arrest the executive because they think that this will be leverage over the Chinese?

    ReplyReply
  80. 80
    Procopius says:

    @Immanentize: The only Canadian extradition case I followed was that of Rakesh Saxena, an executive of the Bangkok Bank of Commerce. After it went belly-up in 1996 Saxena fled to Canada with several tens of millions of dollars. The president of the bank was jailed for several years. It took the Thai Prosecutor’s Office two or three years to get the paper-work right, and after that the Thai press, especially the Bangkok Post checked on the status every couple of years. One surprising thing was that Saxena was allowed to continue his investment service in Canada and defrauded more people of more millions of dollars. After the court approved his extradition to Thailand, some Commissioner remained whose approval was needed. Saxena spent many millions on appeals, and the case sat on the Commissioner’s desk, unsigned, for several years, leading to dark suspicions here that the fix was in. He finally was returned, convicted, and imprisoned, but by then he had no money left. I hope he died in penury, but he probably didn’t.

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  81. 81
    opiejeanne says:

    @satby: I’m afraid to look at my stocks now. Maybe in a few days if the market starts recovering. Mine are inherited from my parents too and we have treated them as a safety net. I probably should have cashed everything earlier this year when they had recovered most of what they lost after the election. They’re all blue chips, but Trump has managed to make Clorox stock exciting.

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  82. 82
    bemused says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    Oh boy, would I love to see a herd of angry, spitting llamas smuggled into the WH and set loose among trumpie, Jarvanka, Giuliani, Sarah, Miller, John Kelly, Whitaker, etc and entire GOP.

    I am somewhat disturbed that I immediately envision all unfortunate incidents such as spitting llamas and eels stuck up seals’ noses and worse happening to the trumpers and GOP.

    ReplyReply
  83. 83

    @rikyrah:
    It appears that we arrested the executive because the company is neck-deep in violating international law. Trump’s administration has immediately beslimed that already complex issue by going “Hey, while we have her, let’s use her as a hostage!”

    ReplyReply
  84. 84
    NotMax says:

    @bemused

    Not llamas, please; we’d be bombing Venezuela before sundown.

    ReplyReply
  85. 85
    Kay says:

    @Matt McIrvin:

    It is true, though, the larger point. The economy is going to slow and Donald Trump, this specific president, is uniquely unsuited to dealing with that when it happens. “I alone can fix it”. No, he really can’t.

    He should have put something aside for bad times, some good will, some relationship with people outside his base when he had the good economy, but he did not and it’s too late. It’s not like his business, where he can turn to sketchy lenders when he’s screwed everyone else. There’s just one electorate and he had a thin margin at the outset.

    They all make choices and they have a fairly narrow window to get a big initiative thru- he chose tax cuts. He could have chosen immigration or infrastructure but he did not. It’s hard to choose- there was a lot of second guessing on Obama choosing health care (including from me) but Obama’s bet is turning out to be a good one for Democrats, longer term.

    ReplyReply
  86. 86
    Another Scott says:

    “2 minutes ago
    China talks are going very well!”

    Since he lies about everything, well… :-/

    Have a good Friday, everyone.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  87. 87
    rikyrah says:

    The Root (@TheRoot) Tweeted:
    Ross Douthat’s NYT piece: “Why We Miss The WASPs” made #BlackTwitter go crazy and proved that some white people really do yearn for white supremacy:

    https://t.co/DfXB53pxa9 https://t.co/gD2PAkf1fP https://twitter.com/TheRoot/status/1070771419347329024?s=17

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  88. 88
    Procopius says:

    @JPL: I don’t know about federal procedure, but don’t many states have a procedure called “Arraignment,” an alternative to an indictment? Instead of convening a Grand Jury, the prosecutor takes the defendant before a judge and presents evidence that a crime was committed and he has probable cause to believe the defendant was complicit in it. The judge then sets a date for the trial. In fact that’s the way all misdemeanors and most felonies are handled, if I understand correctly. Or maybe Corsi was indicted and out famously free press just didn’t think it was newsworthy.

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  89. 89
    TS (the original) says:

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s also the volatility that impacts how people react to changes in the markets. Maybe I’m wrong – but I have no memory of such wide swings in market values within a small time period as has been happening recently. The 2002 and moreso 2008 declines were mainly continuous downward trends. Trump opens his mouth & creates massive swings in either directions. Other Presidents have spoken in relation to what is happening in the markets – trump speaks & causes the market happenings.

    ReplyReply
  90. 90
    rikyrah says:

    😅😅😅

    HillReporter.com (@HillReporter) Tweeted:
    Trump’s Team Considers Removing Mike Pence from 2020 Ticket

    https://t.co/M7B4qj6cSd https://twitter.com/HillReporter/status/1070449725747412992?s=17

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  91. 91
    Immanentize says:

    @Frankensteinbeck:
    I’m not so sure about the underlying charges. What’s been reported is that the company, of which she is an officer, violated sanctions on Iran. What sanctions? US sanctions only? The newly imposed sanctions? Old sanctions? What US Attorney (district) indicted her? All this might matter if it she mounts a political exception defense to extradition

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  92. 92
    Kay says:

    @Matt McIrvin:

    He really wasn’t responsible for the good economy but he claimed credit for it- staked his whole presidency on it- so it will be perfectly reasonable and just when people blame him when it slows.

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  93. 93

    @Procopius: Running a business is sort of the opposite of running a government. In business, the point is to turn a profit and the product/service is just a means to do that. If GM could make more money by not making cars, they’d stop making cars. In government, the opposite is true. The money is just a means to provide the service.

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  94. 94
    NotMax says:

    @Kay

    Tomorrow’s tweets today:

    “EVERYONE is saying if Hillary won the Dow would be down 8000, not 800.”

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  95. 95

    @NotMax: LOL. Tasteless, but funny!

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  96. 96
    Immanentize says:

    @Kay:
    Well, expect Trump to blame the Democratic Congress for the economic downturn in 3, 2, 1…

    Meanwhile, did you see the latest low quality hire in Trumpworld? The ex Fox and Friends celebrity who went to State as spokesperson will now be our Ambassador to the UN.

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  97. 97

    New thread posted. I can’t keep up.

    ReplyReply
  98. 98
    TS (the original) says:

    @Immanentize: Quality people refuse to work for trump ( a definite career ender) – he is left with Fox pundits and friends.

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  99. 99
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @TS (the original):

    he is left with Fox pundits and friends.

    Except he has no friends, just hangers-on hoping to get some cash out of the deal.

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  100. 100
    bemused says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Fox and Fiends would be more accurate.

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  101. 101
    Gelfling 545 says:

    I annuitized my 403(b) last January. As my agent said, nobody can predict what’s going to happen with this guy in charge. They were struggling at the time to figure out what in hell the GOP tax bill was going to do to people – regular ones, not corporation ones.

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  102. 102
    Jay C says:

    @Immanentize:

    Hard to tell exactly why Ms. Meng was nabbed: our discussion here at B-J is about as much coverage as I’ve seen. It MIGHT be that the Trumpsters are looking to Huawei to make an example of for whatever: their idiotic Iran sanctions are as good an excuse as any. But of course, Bolton had to stir the turd by bringing up the “leverage” issue: we will have to wait for more info.

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  103. 103
    oldster says:

    That video of the new Democratic House Members reciting the Preamble?

    It made me cry. So good. So much the America I believe in, still.

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  104. 104
    Procopius says:

    @Kay: I dunno. Trump may have enough time still to build some good will somewhere. I don’t think he has the skill set, but whatever. The slowdown/slump/recession/crash/depression won’t come until next year, probably Fall or Winter, and maybe not until Summer 2020. The statistics at Lambert Strether’s 2:00 PM Water Cooler at Naked Capitalism keep getting weaker, but as one tilts a little more toward slump one or two others seem to recover a little. The yield curve almost, but doesn’t quite, invert. Just on duration of the “recovery” we’re past time, but if the gods really hate us they’ll stave it off until after the election.

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  105. 105
    Procopius says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Thank you, you put very clearly. One of the problems is that the old WASP establishment families who used to determine policy (which was why we got involved in Vietnam from 1946 onward) are no longer prominent. The new PTB do not have that sense of being responsible for the orderly running of the country. They’ve been replaced by the people who are moved by naked greed, seeking out opportunities for loot wherever they can find it. They loot the companies they work for, and then they move into government for a while to set up the next opportunity to loot then move back to the private sector to direct their company to take advantage of the loot they set up and then loot the company to put the money in their own pocket. It’s been downhill since the Powell Memo. An anecdote I enjoy. After he was on the losing ticket in 1920 (as candidate for Vice President), Franklin Roosevelt was asked if he regretted losing. He replied that, no, he didn’t regret it. The country was fed up with Democrats for now so he really hadn’t expected to win. He knew, though, that Republican fiscal policy would destroy the country and he wanted to be ready to run after that happened. He figured about 1932 would be the time.

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  106. 106

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    They actually measured it. They tracked the difference between a trump tweet – when he tweeted out his nickname TARIFF MAN – and how the market would react to it. Within a minute of his TARIFF MAN tweet the Dow dropped 200 points (and kept dropping soon after). So we have a metric. a trump tweet about tariffs = negative 200 points on the market.

    Part of me wants the whole DOW to drop to Zero. I know a lot of IRAs and retirement plans would get nuked in the process, but at least we will ALL know the cause for it: Republican perfidy in destroying the economy PLUS trump’s tweeter-tantrums.

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  107. 107
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @bemused: But redundant.

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  108. 108
    JR says:

    last year’s rally was an illusion. CAPE (cycle-adjusted P/E ratio) is still high (~30 with a historical average of ~20). There are other factors that play into that ratio but irrational exuberance abounds. This is the highest its been since the .com bubble.

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  109. 109
    catclub says:

    @debbie:

    I pulled mine after 2008. Not that there was much to pull at that point. I’m not making much now, but at least I won’t be losing it.

    I left mine in after 2008 and now it is up over 200% from there.

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  110. 110
    catclub says:

    @Procopius: this. A recession with very low unemployment and rising salaries sounds kind of like Japan for the last 29 years or so. Which is really not so bad.

    Or just unlikely to be a recession.

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  111. 111
    catclub says:

    @PaulWartenberg:

    Part of me wants the whole DOW to drop to Zero

    this is usually the difference between people who think government matters and people who just want to watch things burn.
    There are lots of other innocents around who will get burned.

    But for you, today, burning looks good. Not for me.

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  112. 112
    WhatsMyNym says:

    Just to close this thread –
    the NASDAQ is still up 3.38% for the last year (365 days),
    the DOW is still up 1.40% for the last year (365 days).
    (Bloomberg charts)

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  113. 113
    bobbo says:

    The last bit in Spanish actually made me tear up. FSM bless America!

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  114. 114
    jl says:

    The increase in the trade deficit is no mystery. The GOP tax heist bill, by the GOP’s own logic on how it worked, would be expected to increase the trade deficit (unless that US acted exactly like a national economy that was so small, like Estonia or Singapore) that what goes on here has no effect on the rest of the world. The GOP logic was wrong, but the GOP tax heist bill did blow up the deficit. Deficit spending is an important determinant of trade deficits, something often overlooked. The budget deficit has to be financed, and effects interest rates for a large economy like the US. So macro national budget conditions set boundaries for what the trade deficit will be.
    So far, I think the stock market drops are just corrections to keep the equities market on a reasonable long run growth path. There was some oveer-exuberance in the expectations for growth due to deregulation and the GOP tax heist, and I think now it is clear that neither does anything for growth. And then there is the effect of Trumps insane tariff war, and the Trumpsters incompetent diddling around with NAFTA.

    Edit: so more true than ever that Trumpsters are riding on the Obama expansion, which has some big pros and big cons. Much of nature of the expansion was set by centrist technocrats who had a lot in common with the competent Dub financial technocrats, though with more honest and useful Keynesian stimulus, which was supported by Obama.

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  115. 115
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    Here’s yer bumpersnicker for the current political situation:

    The LEFT is RIGHT!
    The RIGHT is WRONG!
    The FAR RIGHT is FAR WRONG!!

    ReplyReply
  116. 116
    debbie says:

    @catclub:

    It was all I had. I couldn’t afford that luxury.

    ReplyReply
  117. 117
    debbie says:

    @NotMax:

    Hopefully, Clarence would be smart enough not to give him the chance to get back to the real world.

    ReplyReply
  118. 118
    Procopius says:

    @catclub: Your point about Japan is well taken, but salaries have not been rising since 2008 and I see no reason to think they will start going up when unemployment goes up. Well, average about 2.5% a year, with inflation at 1-2%, and the bottom quintile actually going down a little. The top quintile has been doing pretty well, which is why the average is so high. You certainly are right that there could be no recession. I just believe it’s inevitable there will be another one, and I’m hoping it comes before November 2020, If the economy keeps on like now Trump will probably be reelected. Best would be if it bottomed out in Summer 2020 so people didn’t start feeling the improvement before November, but did start noticing during January 2021.

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