Wednesday Morning Open Thread: The Blue Wave Moves Forward

The latest Grinnell College National Poll also shows just less than a third of Americans say they definitely plan to vote for him in 2020, while 41 percent say they’re certain to cast a ballot for someone else…

The survey of 1,000 adults, conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Iowa school, reveal stark divisions in how Trump is regarded between rural America and everywhere else.

In rural areas — not including those living in small towns — 46 percent say they’ll definitely vote for him for a second term. But in all other geographic areas, there’s much higher skepticism about a second Trump term. Just 33 percent of those in small towns definitely plan to vote for him, while 27 percent in suburbs and 24 percent in cities say they will…

Trump’s weak support everywhere outside of purely rural areas could foreshadow trouble for his re-election prospects in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He narrowly won all three in 2016, but Democrats scored major victories in House, Senate and governors’ races in those states last month.

“Those who live in towns act much more like those who live in cities and suburbs than they do rural residents,” Iowa-based pollster J. Ann Selzer said. “They are less likely than their rural counterparts to approve of or feel favorable toward the president. That lack of support extends beyond Trump to the Republican Party overall, which should raise concerns for the GOP.”…

A majority of Americans — 54 percent — say they’re more hopeful for the country following last month’s election. There’s even greater optimism when it comes to expectations for the nation following the 2020 presidential election, with 58 percent saying they feel hopeful about the nation’s prospects after that milestone.

There’s a message for 2020: Everybody feels better when the GOP loses!

64 replies
  1. 1
    rikyrah says:

    Good Morning, Everyone 😄 😄😄

    ReplyReply
  2. 2
    rikyrah says:

    Thread about who put their names on the Flynn deal and what that could mean

    https://twitter.com/HoarseWisperer/status/1070164186838327296

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  3. 3
    satby says:

    @rikyrah: Good morning rikyrah 😊!

    ReplyReply
  4. 4
    TS (the original) says:

    There’s a message for 2020: Everybody feels better when the GOP loses!

    Funny that – When the GOP wins – not even republicans are happy.

    ReplyReply
  5. 5
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah:
    @satby:

    Good morning.

    ReplyReply
  6. 6
    rikyrah says:

    Denise Oliver-Velez (@Deoliver47) Tweeted:
    US-born citizen sues Florida sheriff’s office that held him so that ICE could try to deport him

    https://t.co/tnZDPbL3nY https://twitter.com/Deoliver47/status/1070051992914006017?s=17

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  7. 7
    NotMax says:

    Ah, open thread. Because there are some spelunkers here,

    A helicopter team counting caribou in British Columbia, Canada, recently made an unexpected discovery during an aerial survey: Crewmembers spied an opening to a massive cave that had never been seen before and which might be the largest cave in the country.

    Found in April in an alpine valley in Wells Gray Provincial Park, the cave’s mouth gapes 328 feet (100 meters) across — if the Statue of Liberty were tipped over on its side, it would just about span the opening. The width of the cave is similarly impressive, measuring 197 feet (60 m), and the cave extends at least 443 feet (135 m) straight down, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported. Source

    (Video at the link, too.) Other reports are clear to say that they’re keeping mum about the exact location, that it is so remote as to make bringing in the equipment necessary to look around by the curious or inexperienced a major travail.

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  8. 8
    R-Jud says:

    Crazification Factor Alert! 🚨

    “Just 33 percent of those in small towns definitely plan to vote for him, while 27 percent in suburbs and 24 percent in cities say they will…”

    ReplyReply
  9. 9
    satby says:

    Friend of the family Justin Cummings won in the Santa Cruz city council election. Very pleased.

    ReplyReply
  10. 10
    rikyrah says:

    The New York Times (@nytimes) Tweeted:
    Emantic Fitzgerald Bradford Jr. was shot three times from behind, according to a forensic examination. He was directing panicked shoppers to safety when the police shot him, witnesses said.

    https://t.co/lmp6GS8Xvd https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1069965815196381189?s=17

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  11. 11
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah:

    He was directing panicked shoppers to safety while black when the police shot him, witnesses said.

    Fixed.

    ReplyReply
  12. 12
    satby says:

    @Baud: Good morning to you too Baud!
    @NotMax: that’s going to be interesting, especially if once it’s explored they find it wasn’t unknown to any of the First Nations tribes. Could be an archeological good mine.

    ReplyReply
  13. 13
    Lapassionara says:

    @rikyrah: This is the saddest of many sad stories. Heart breaking.

    Good morning everyone, and thank you rikyrah for the links.

    ReplyReply
  14. 14
    NotMax says:

    @satby

    While may not have been in the linked piece, other articles have mentioned the government is planning to contact First Nations tribes to determine if they know about it, and if so what their name for it, if any, might be. Apparently no mention of it has been found in the already existing First Nations data.

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  15. 15
    Chyron HR says:

    @Baud:

    He was black, ’nuff said.

    Fixeder.

    ReplyReply
  16. 16
    Platonailedit says:

    Brexitears woes continue to flow.

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  17. 17
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @NotMax: You won’t find any spelunkers going there. Cavers on the other hand are studying google earth satellite images at this very moment.

    (old saying among the caving community: “Cavers rescue spelunkers.” Truer words have never been spoken)

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  18. 18
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @satby: Highly unlikely any first nations ever reached the bottom in one piece. A pit of that depth is a very technical endeavor and doing it safely (and returning to the surface) requires specialized gear. That said, it is not beyond the realm of imagination that they could have used it for sacrificial ceremonies. (there are cenotes in Mexico that the Mayans threw the pottery they had used for the previous year (or so the theory goes) I have read that the floors are made up of broken pottery heaps that are meters deep.

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  19. 19
    Kay says:

    Republicans had a really favorable Senate map in ’18. I know it doesn’t matter in terms of political reporting- the win/loss and horserace is the thing- but it is true and it does matter in reality because they had every possible advantage in ’18.

    They’re irrationally exuberant, which may work in our favor because they’re not making any course corrections and they won’t make them until they see the need to, until they feel forced to, hopefully too late. They’re in worse shape than even the midterms revealed.

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  20. 20
    Chief Oshkosh says:

    Seriously, what the hell is it with the rural rural people? They’re a bunch of fucking freaks. At this point it’s a cult. I guess the only thing we can do is help them to an early and peaceful (political) demise.

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  21. 21
    NotMax says:

    @OzarkHillbilly

    “Honey, I finally got rid of that ugly vase your great-aunt Xotl gave us for a wedding present, once and for all.”

    ReplyReply
  22. 22
    R-Jud says:

    @Platonailedit: Seems appropriate to quote Beckett here, given it’s the Irish border that’s bedeviling May’s deal with her own coalition: “The end is in the beginning. Yet we go on.”

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  23. 23
    Platonailedit says:

    Members of the notorious ‘Ndrangheta Italian mafia have been targeted in a simultaneous police sting in Europe.

    Hundreds of police are understood to have been involved in the operation in Belgium, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands.

    At least 90 people were arrested, and more than three tonnes of cocaine and 140kg of ecstasy were seized.

    Italian restaurants and ice cream parlours used to launder money were among the premises raided.

    Millions of euro in laundered money was seized at the businesses and homes raided across the four countries, officials said, and several “high-ranking” members of ‘Ndrangheta are believed to have been among those arrested.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46452934

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  24. 24
    Chyron HR says:

    @Kay:

    They’re in worse shape than even the midterms revealed.

    Other than having cemented Ohio and Florida as red states.

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  25. 25
    A Ghost To Most says:

    @R-Jud:
    The end of the beginning, and the beginning of the end.

    Waste these motherfuckers, Bobby 3XSTX.

    ReplyReply
  26. 26
    Platonailedit says:

    @R-Jud:

    Boris and nigel, the cowardly clowns, who instigated this are nowhere to be seen.

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  27. 27
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @satby: Correction: after looking at the video the cave is not as I thought it would be from the description. Can’t say for certain that one could reach the bottom with out rope (the video gives little clue to the actual bottom) but a person of reasonable fitness and ability could at least get partway down.

    @NotMax: Correction: Having seen the video now, I can say that cavers have already found it’s location on google earth satellite images, are in the very early stages of assembling their proposed expedition teams, attempting to sign up the people who know people who know the right people, and putting together the basics of a proposal to be submitted to the proper authorities in BC.

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  28. 28
    A Ghost To Most says:

    The Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine critical of President Trump that has been printing since 1995, may be shutting down its operations, according to two reports on Tuesday.

    “Multiple sources tell me that neocon magazine @weeklystandard is expected to close its operations in a few weeks,” wrote One America reporter Emerald Robinson on Tuesday afternoon.

    Thoughts and prayers.

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  29. 29
    NonyNony says:

    @Kay:

    they’re not making any course corrections and they won’t make them until they see the need to, until they feel forced to, hopefully too late.

    They’re not going to make any “course corrections” because the lesson they learned from 2010 was “when you’re unpopular and people don’t want to vote for you, double down on the racism, misogyny, and batshit parts of conservatism. Being a total obstructionist force against progress is a winner, not a loser.”

    Unless we can not only dump them out in 2020 but also keep them out in 2022 and 2024 they’re going to do it again – double down on appealing to the worst people in the country for votes, obstruct any attempt to make things better, and count on people being disappointed that one election didn’t change everything.

    We’ve got 2 years to set expectations for the next 6 years. I can only hope that whoever the Dem nominee is in 2020 understands this dynamic better than Obama did in 2008. (Though to be fair to Obama – the Republican reaction in 2008 was fairly radical – I can see how it would be unexpected then – nobody should make that mistake this time.)

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  30. 30
    satby says:

    @NotMax: @OzarkHillbilly: I know it’s highly unlikely, but I always hope for another Lascaux type discovery. Wouldn’t that be something!

    ReplyReply
  31. 31
    NotMax says:

    @A Ghost To Most

    Bill Kristol’s rag. Owners reportedly plan to funnel all resources to the Washington Examiner and its upcoming ancillary printed product.

    ReplyReply
  32. 32
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    Trumo’s losing his audience. The stench of luzer doesn’t suite him. He’ like Christi that the tough guy turns act into a sulky child to easily.

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  33. 33
    R-Jud says:

    @Platonailedit: They are busy quitting things—Nigel bowed out of UKIP yesterday? The day before? Everything’s running together. Boris actually had the temerity to speak in the Commons yesterday. That he isn’t immediately smote down by lightning is ongoing proof that God either doesn’t exist or is, in fact, Cthulhu.

    But their lying and cowardice is to be expected. It’s the wishy-washy opposition that exhausts me. My kid’s got US and UK citizenship and both those seem like greatly diminished commodities since 2016.

    ReplyReply
  34. 34
    O. Felix Culpa says:

    @rikyrah:

    Thread about who put their names on the Flynn deal and what that could mean

    This thread has added to my happiness. Good morning!

    ReplyReply
  35. 35
    NotMax says:

    @satby

    “Whaddaya mean you found duplicates of the Dead Sea scrolls? Tell you what, let’s put ’em back, then we’ll fill this baby in and never, ever talk of this again.”

    ;)

    ReplyReply
  36. 36
    danielx says:

    @rikyrah:

    And good morning to you!

    ReplyReply
  37. 37
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Chyron HR: Can’t speak for Ohio, but as disappointed as I was that Republicans kept control of the state government and bounced Nelson out of the senate here in Florida, I don’t think it means the state is “cemented” as a red state in 2020. Florida’s 29 EC votes will be very much up for grabs, as usual.

    ReplyReply
  38. 38
    O. Felix Culpa says:

    @satby:

    Friend of the family Justin Cummings won in the Santa Cruz city council election. Very pleased.

    More good news. Yay for your friend!

    And because things are still very much not right in the world, a deep sadness for Emantic Fitzgerald Bradford Jr., his friends, family, and POC in general. This. Must. Stop.

    ReplyReply
  39. 39
    danielx says:

    @R-Jud:

    That he isn’t immediately smote down by lightning is ongoing proof that God either doesn’t exist or is, in fact, Cthulhu.

    That is a line I may have to use.

    ReplyReply
  40. 40
    rikyrah says:

    @Chyron HR:

    Other than having cemented Ohio and Florida as red states.

    Ohio, yes..

    Florida…1.4 million people just got their right to vote back.
    1 out of 4 eligible Black voters COULD NOT VOTE in 2018…
    You don’t think that’s going to matter in 2020?

    ReplyReply
  41. 41
    gene108 says:

    @NonyNony:

    I think the real issue is did we learn anything from 2010 about not getting discouraged, if a miracle does not happen in 2 years and that we keep our enthusiasm up at 2018 levels, at a minimum.

    That is my real fear. I think there is a lot of anti-Trump backlash fueling us. With no Trump in office will our erratic voters care enough to turn out? We won a lot of really close House races this time around. Any drop in turn out and enthusiasm and we lose those seats.

    ReplyReply
  42. 42
    cmorenc says:

    @Chyron HR:

    Other than having cemented Ohio and Florida as red states.

    Wouldn’t be so sure about Florida going forward, since Fla voters in Nov 2018 approved a referendum making ex-felons who have served their sentences eligible to vote – the number of them is in the hundreds of thousands (whup, post above says it’s 1.4million!), many of whose crimes amounted to committing relatively petty offenses while black.

    ReplyReply
  43. 43
    rikyrah says:

    Ari Berman (@AriBerman) Tweeted:
    Breaking: Wisconsin senate passes bill 17-16 to curtail powers of Democratic gov/AG & cut early voting in lame duck legislative coup

    In 2016 court said GOP early voting cuts “suppress the reliably Democratic vote of Milwaukee’s African Americans”

    https://t.co/9sKFTVQGxX https://t.co/W3xY37YzfU https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1070289495650680832?s=17

    ReplyReply
  44. 44
    Another Scott says:

    @rikyrah: Thanks for the pointer.

    Good morning everyone.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  45. 45
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @gene108: 2022 is going to be the tough one, if a Democrat becomes President in 2020. I wouldn’t expect 2018 turnout levels. But we might be able to keep it well above 2010-2014, if some of these new midterm voters have gotten into a habit.

    ReplyReply
  46. 46
    RAM says:

    Chatting with my late cousin’s elderly widow, who lives in a tiny Kansas town, during a Thanksgiving call when Trump came up: “I’m just real glad I didn’t vote for that guy!”

    ReplyReply
  47. 47
    J R in WV says:

    @NotMax:

    The cave appears to be a vertical shaft for hundreds of feet, so, in that case occupancy or use by First Nations folks would be very unlikely. Also a river flows through it in a waterfall. So a dangerous challenge to enter even with modern technology.

    ReplyReply
  48. 48
    rikyrah says:

    I agree with this. Begin the week with Flynn….end the week with putting Paulie Walnuts under the jail for the rest of his life…

    It will be up to you to decide your fate.

    https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1070168919929970692

    ReplyReply
  49. 49
    Another Scott says:

    @gene108: The SCOTUS could throw a real monkey wrench into things, or set us on the road to fixing things, when it comes to gerrymandering.

    McClatchy on the Wisconsin and Maryland cases. They haven’t wanted to get involved much thus far, but the tide might – might – be turning. We’ll see.

    As we know, it’s not just having good candidates and getting voters to the polls. We’ve got to fix the system that lets minority parties choose their voters and over-weight their victories.

    We have to fight them every single day. The RWNJs are not going to give up. We can’t either.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  50. 50
    Baud says:

    @gene108:

    We will hopefully have a less gerrymandered map in 2022.

    ReplyReply
  51. 51
    Jeffro says:

    @Chief Oshkosh:

    Seriously, what the hell is it with the rural rural people? They’re a bunch of fucking freaks. At this point it’s a cult. I guess the only thing we can do is help them to an early and peaceful (political) demise.

    I know, right? I keep seeing articles about the need to help out rural America, stop the brain drain, try to get the next Amazon to choose a smaller, red-state town…my question would be, hmm, WHY?!? (in 72-point type) Why?

    ReplyReply
  52. 52
    rikyrah says:

    Thread

    Diana Butler Bass (@dianabutlerbass) Tweeted:
    Anyone who has studied, understood, or been victimized by the politics of the Southern Baptist Convention is not surprised by what Rev Mark Harris’ campaign is accused of doing. In Harris’ world, anything is permissible if it achieves the end of winning for “Jesus.”

    https://twitter.com/dianabutlerbass/status/1069978037150801921?s=17

    ReplyReply
  53. 53
    rikyrah says:

    Mueller memo on Flynn shows cooperation on three investigations

    Rachel Maddow takes viewers page-by-page through Robert Mueller’s freshly published and heavily redacted memorandum on the sentencing of disgraced former Donald Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn.
    Dec. 4, 2018

    ReplyReply
  54. 54
    tobie says:

    I don’t like Hakeem Jeffries tweet. If Democrats think the path to winning back the working class vote is a populist appeal, then they’ve got a thing coming. We’ll never be able to tap into resentment as well as Republicans do. Talk policy–fixing crumbling schools, getting rid of poison in the water, revising the tax code to force corporations to put their profits into their workforce instead of paying out dividends to shareholders.

    ReplyReply
  55. 55
    Another Scott says:

    @tobie: Why not both?.

    It’s a big party and a big country. We win when we tailor our message to our voters in the particular races. If we’re smart we can do both without selling anyone out.

    (I’m not talking about trying to appeal to Nazis and the like, of course.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  56. 56
    japa21 says:

    @tobie: I think you totally misunderstood the quote.

    ReplyReply
  57. 57
    gene108 says:

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I think it really depends on the economy and how effective the Democratic President is perceived to be.

    Republicans will always turn out. They turned out in 2018.

    And I am not sure Democrats will be able to retake the Senate in 2020. Outside of Collins and Gardner, the rest of the Republican incumbents are in safe red states. And Doug Jones will likely lose.

    So don’t expect much to get done before 2022.

    But on the bright side, Democrats are beginning to clearly define what they stand for, so that should help.

    ReplyReply
  58. 58
    Hamlet says:

    @gene108:

    I wouldn’t rule out retaking the Senate in 2020. Other seats that aren’t impossible along with Collins and Gardner–

    Tom Tillis NC
    Joni Ernst IA
    Open Seat AZ

    Those are all reachable with the right candidate, IMO. And that is right now with a good economy. What are the odds that this economy will hold up until November of 2020? I’d guess its only about a 1 in 3 chance. If the job market has gotten bad again, and the Dow is back below 20K, I think you could see an environment where some other “safe” Republican seats are now in play.

    Plus, all of the Mueller stuff and all of the House investigations of this administration are unlikely to help the Republicans.

    ReplyReply
  59. 59
    The Lodger says:

    @A Ghost To Most: They should merge with the American Spectator. American-Standard is the perfect name for their brand of urinalism.

    ReplyReply
  60. 60
    NotMax says:

    @J R in WV

    I’m not the one who brought up First Nations, however if any of them do have a name for it, hope it translates as “Are you effin’ kidding me? No one in his right mind goes in there!”

    ReplyReply
  61. 61
    Jack the Second says:

    @gene108: I mean, what are the chances they run a SECOND pedophile against him?

    ReplyReply
  62. 62
    VOR says:

    @R-Jud: Krugman wrote a column on the Bank of England’s analysis of the outcome of Brexit. The more pessimistic scenarios are a worse slump than the Great Recession (i.e. 2008 and aftermath).

    ReplyReply
  63. 63
    Jay says:

    @NotMax:

    The area where the cave is, used to be covered by a glacier and snowfield. Now it isn’t. The area is “just north” of me. The area also isn’t that “remote” when you include helicopter skiing and backpacking.

    ReplyReply
  64. 64

    @Chyron HR: “Cemented”?? Like hell they have.

    ReplyReply

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