BREAKING: Democrats gain control of the House, @NBCNews projects. https://t.co/Groo2ugFBx pic.twitter.com/mvoULgwkit
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 7, 2018
Update 1
Major things that I am thinking about:
- subpoena power
- Mueller cover
- Medicaid is safe
- ACA is safe
- Medicaid Expansion is on track for at least another couple states
Baud
Thanks, China.
Jerzy Russian
Drop your linen and start your grinnin’!
LAC
I am sure there is a way to piss on it here. But that is damn good news.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
Tonight really sucked in Ohio. Cordray looks like he’s going down with over 71% of precincts reporting in, along with the other statewide offices. Brown is winning, so that’s good. Issue 1, the criminal justice and drug reform ballot initiative is dead, but probably not the end. Interestingly, with 71% in, the Dem supreme court candidates look on track to win. Go figure.
Mary G
Jesus, does everyone have to start a new thread? I’m still back two or three half the time. But let me repost this, because an OKLAHOMA Democrat is likely to flip a House seat:
chopper
what kind of dumbass pro wrestling-style graphic is that, msnbc? jesus.
Cheryl Rofer
I’m not sure I believe this yet – seems like counting chickens too soon – but if it holds, it’s gonna be fun!
Jerzy Russian
The poles are still open out here. I anxiously wait to see if Duncan Fucking Hunter, Jr. and that car thief Issa will lose.
Ohio Mom
I guess winning the House was my bottom line but I am bummed by Cordray et al losing. Maybe tomorrow I’ll appreciate the House win more fully. Also, my bad arm in aching and that never does anything for my mood.
guachi
And I feel like a dumbass for being so eeyore-like early on. Looks like I was fooled by Florida returns being more skewed to Republicans than expected.
Two upsets for Democrats in the House and zero upsets for Republicans in the House.
p.a.
@Baud: ;- )
Ahhh… but will the majority be Blue Dog proof?*
*couldn’t resist
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: I’d like to get rid of him as a rep.
opiejeanne
Great! And I expect it will get better tomorrow.
Kornacki was giving me the fantods around 6 tonight pst with his prediction that it might not be possible to flip the House. I turned him off after one of the others on the panel pointed out that 238 total IS a flip.
Baud
@p.a.: Fight the real enemy.
khead
Nancy Smash!
Cheryl Rofer
Jerzy Russian
Also, too, the 538 live blog still has a 9 in 10 chance of a Democratic controlled House. That is not exactly a 10 in 10 chance. However, it is better than the ~50% or so level it was at when I left work.
Dan B
David Anderson, naughty boy! You’ve been waiting to beat every other hard working front pager to the punch…
Oh, and Yipee!
Jared Polis put tears in my eyes much like Obama’s victories. Now it’s time to make the House put America back on track, and hopefully to an even better track than before.
JWR
@Mary G:
I know, huh? I’d like to see at least 100 comments per thread before a new one goes up. (Going back now to catch myself up.)
lamh36
What’s the latest on GA and FL?
Oh any news on Lucy McBath in GA?
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud: I’ll second that. I also think there’s a lot more of a story about his crazy antics than we’ve heard so far.
Luciamia
Thaaaaaank goodness!
Platonailedit
@Jerzy Russian:
Is issa running? I thought the corrupt coward quit?
Spanky
Hey, isn’t it time for a new thread by now?
@Jerzy Russian: Issa’s not running, but I hear that he did guarantee a Dem win in his district today.
mdblanche
It’s been ten minutes. Can we get a new thread yet?
Cheryl Rofer
Raven
@lamh36:
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
Karen Handel i GOP 72,766 51%
Lucy McBath Dem 68,628 49%
Total 141,394
Min: 0% Max: 100%
14% Reporting 28 of 207 Precincts
Jerzy Russian
@Platonailedit: You are correct. He is still in Congress, but he did not run for reelection. It looks like his seat will turn blue!
PsiFighter37
Kind of shocked that we’re going to pick up a House seat in FUCKING OKLAHOMA and somehow manage to lose statewide races in FL.
PF37 +about to start #4
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Good for LA.
Cheryl Rofer
Gravenstone
@Platonailedit: Issa conceded sometime this afternoon that his seat would go Democratic.
ChrisS
Oh fucking thank god.
AND VOTERS!
Holy hell, I didn’t know if I would be able to sleep.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Nice. Scott Walker is also gone.
Ian G.
We have a check on the madman in the White House. That’s massively important to the survival of the Republic.
The senate map in 2020 will be much more favorable. Let’s flip that and the presidency then.
Timurid
@PsiFighter37:
Somehow Florida is redder than Kansas now…
Mary G
No wall for you, Twitler.
b1narys3rf
@Ohio Mom:
Please explain to me who TF all these Brown-DeWine voters are? What is wrong with this state? We’re no longer swing far as I’m concerned. 2020 Dem Prez candidate should maybe IMO spend MUCH less time and money here.
TaMara (HFG)
@opiejeanne: You lasted longer than I did. The yelling, the hysteria. He does realize he’s miked, right?
Baud
@PsiFighter37: Realignments aren’t pretty.
lamh36
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Curbelo concedes in FL, Ann Kirkpatrick takes Martha McSally’s former seat in AZ-2
Baud
@b1narys3rf: White male union members.
zhena gogolia
I’m afraid CT is going to get a Trumpian governor.
lamh36
TaMara (HFG)
@Ian G.: Agreed. And with a lot more Dems at the state level, it’s time to fix the gerrrymandering issues. That’s how we take back the Senate. And fuck Texas.
Mike J
Thanks to everybody who volunteered.
Think about going by the campaign office tomorrow. Shit needs to be cleaned up. We’ll need to get the space back to condition to get our deposit back. Many places have laws requiring lawn signs put up on public rights of way taken down within seven days of the election. The work isn’t over, it’s just started.
Ian G.
Also, as disappointing as the Florida races are, it’s beginning to look like Virginia and Colorado are turning into solid blue states. Those will be nice to have in the bag as we work to recapture Big 10 country.
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud: Excellent! I missed that! Looks like Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) will be NM’s next governor. Don’t know if that’s been called yet.
b1narys3rf
@Baud: Their unions are massively failing to educate and organize them then. Of course, that’s largely by design as I unfortunately understand it, in a society where semantically “union” along with (maybe not so much anymore) “liberal” were given negative connotations bleeding into self-hate.
japa21
Again, just because I like to say this. King in IA is down 50-48 with 10 % reporting.
c u n d gulag
HUZZAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cheryl Rofer
lamh36
Aleta
hooray Michigan !! yea Detroit!
dmsilev
@Jerzy Russian: Issa is retiring, but he went on record this morning predicting that the Democrat would win his seat.
Baud
@b1narys3rf: I don’t really blame the unions for the identity politics of their members.
bluehill
@TaMara (HFG): Yep. Gship pickups will be important. Supermajority in NC big.
TaMara (HFG)
@japa21: That would make my night even better.
Ridnik Chrome
@Cheryl Rofer: That’s MY congresswoman-elect! And a big eff-you to everyone who said that the only reason she won the primary is because she wasn’t running on the same ticket as Cuomo. Lots of people came out in Sunnyside, Queens to support her. There were still lines at my polling place at eight PM.
Gravenstone
This is the bare minimum we needed to achieve in order to stem the rot and start trying hold people to account. While disappointing that some major targets remain standing (Cruz, Scott, etc.), it does sound like those efforts helped the state legislatures. And from there, hopefully a new generation of Democratic leaders will develop.
lamh36
@Cheryl Rofer: Maxine Waters Finance Right?
ChrisS
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
1994 was the year that broke politics and it was only +7.1%.
The democrats get a +9.2 and they squeek out a house win …
JWR
@Baud:
This will (partially) make up for the Texas Senate race. (Blech! Another 6 years of Cruz the Ooze.)
JGabriel
Starting tomorrow, Democrats need to begin an under the radar campaign to make expanding the Supreme Court an achievable goal for when we next win the Senate and Presidency.
With another two years of GOP Senate control, the best we can hope for is no more changes to SCOTUS before 2021 – but that relies on both Ginsburg and Breyer remaining healthy enough – and alive enough – to hang on until then. If either leaves SCOTUS before 2021 – if Trump and/or the GOP get to put another fascist on the Supreme Court – we will absolutely need to expand it once we get control of the Senate and Executive Branch if we are to have any hope of a Democratic agenda surviving judicial appeals.
Ohio Mom
@b1narys3rf: I have the same question. I mean, Brown is the epitome of a Democrat. And the same people vote for dreck (Yiddish for sh*t) like DeWine?!
You can blame us sending too many Republicans to the House on gerrymandering but there is no excuse for DeWine.
Mary G
Another Trumpkin goes down:
ETA:
Jerzy Russian
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I would like everyone to get a tattoo showing how many people voted for Democrats in the House and Senate, and how many voted for Republicans. I don’t know the exact numbers, but more people voted for Democrats as representatives and senators than not. After everyone has their tattoo, we can have every congressional district in the county have the same number of people. California would pick up about 50 seats that way. After that, I want a pony.
Dan B
Let’s hope the Dems can keep Trans rights, immigrant rights ( DACA – WH appealed to Supremes today, monsters!), and several others intact, or not much worse. And Roe! Not sure how the tide can be stopped on that. (What those Greek women did long ago..)
Matt McIrvin
@PsiFighter37: The most under-covered story of the last 30 years, really, is Democrats getting stronger in the West. Starting from the West Coast and working eastward. VA and NC are also getting gradually bluer.
Meanwhile, we seem to be gradually losing big chunks of the Midwest. Though it actually is looking a little bluer tonight than I might have feared.
And the Florida and Georgia results suck, but we can console ourselves with the knowledge that the GA election was unbelievably crooked.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Woo hoo! that in itself is almost worth popping a cork
Ohio Mom
@c u n d gulag: Wow. Haven’t seen you in forever. How are you?
lamh36
Oh shit… Peter King running tight?
https://twitter.com/JasonKirell/status/1060014644440563713
Aleta
Cheryl Rofer
@lamh36: Not sure, but I think so.
japa21
IA-03 now flipped. Now let’s get King.
Quinerly
@PsiFighter37: as Baud said (Poco endorses ?), Dems are over performing in OK and KS. Who would have thunk?
mad citizen
I’m not clear on how fixing gerrymandering fixes statewide Senate races.
On a down note, thinking, with my birthday coming up at midnight, I can’t live out my remaining years in Indiana, my home for nearly six decades from birth.
Ridnik Chrome
@Baud: Walker is out? YEEEESSSSS!!!! I hated that union-busting piece of shit.
Jerzy Russian
@JWR:
I am ashamed to admit it, but I never would have come up with Cruz the Ooze. Nice job!
b1narys3rf
@Ohio Mom: DeWine has an annoying ability to put himself across like a “moderate.” Sadly I find many high-level OH Rs have this ability and there are too many easily fooled here. Even my old dad voted for DeWine for various (too many different) positions in the past and he’s a solid New Deal Democrat.
opiejeanne
@TaMara (HFG): Not really. I paused the show for 15 to 20 minutes then I’d go to the live feed. I did that a couple of times before I shut it off.
My husband doesn’t mind him, I can’t explain why. Kornacki makes me feel stabby every damned time, no matter how far ahead the Democrats are.
debbie
Fucking Troy Balderson. “We have ran four races.” Fucking hick. Fucking rube.
Baud
Is it fair to say that the GOP overperformed in the South and we did well everywhere else?
PsiFighter37
@lamh36: I’d love for him to get canned. He was the original rabid anti-Muslim GOPer in Congress after 9/11…people forget that since he started fighting with Rubio and Cruz over Hurricane Sandy funding.
Mary G
If a front pager is around, I tried to add a second tweet to my comment at 67 and it went into moderation, probably for too many links.
Mike J
@lamh36:
I think she should kick the shit out of Michael Tracey every day. I don’t care if she does anything else.
lamh36
Matt McIrvin
…I don’t actually quite believe we’ve won the House yet, mind you–want to see the individual races actually get called.
mdblanche
@JWR: If it’s any consolation probably the people most disappointed are the Senate Republicans who are going to have to continue putting up with Cruz’s personality.
BlueDWarrior
It seems like the Republicans overperformed the polls in the Southeast (to a fair extent) which blunted any momentum the Democrats had of a decisive win tonight. But outside of the Southeast, Democrats are performing pretty much according to most people’s scripts.
Baud
@Ridnik Chrome: Ok, so Walker is losing but it’s close and the NYT hasn’t called it yet. Maybe I was premature.
Spanky
And looking ahead …
mad citizen
@ChrisS: Looked it up: the 1994 House flip to R’s, they picked up 54 seats. As you say, Dems have a higher margin and are picking up low 30s of seats. Phucking gerrymandering.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@lamh36: Oh my god. Pierce is a gonna laugh himself silly.
He’s already giggling. Me too.
lamh36
opiejeanne
@Mike J: I took food to HQ in Redmond today because they were still phone banking and canvassing. I might swing by and help them with the clean-up because the joint looks like they could use the help.
Ian G.
@lamh36:
If Staten Island could kick Donovan to the curb, Long Island hopefully does the same to King. I bet a LOT of people are livid over their property tax deductions going away to fund tax cuts for billionaires.
japa21
Why do people keep saying Walker is gone. He is closing the gap.
dmsilev
So, basically the polls weren’t too far off on both the House and the Senate. A bit disappointing re: the Senate, but taking the House is a big first step.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Unless you count Virginia as the South. Dems did well there, a slight overperformance actually.
PsiFighter37
@Baud: We’ll see. We’re not doing as well in NJ House races as I would have thought. Van Drew in particular is underperforming. I think there’s a lot more idiosyncrasies with this election relative to 2000, let’s call it. That’s a bit strange to say, but despite that asshole in the WH wanting to make it all about him, there are just some weird-ass results that make it impossible to say anything other than local factors being responsible.
Baud
@japa21: I thought it was called, but it’s still close. Sorry.
Peale
@b1narys3rf: we can say the same thing about New England voters, who are still convinced that their republican governors are different.
Kent
@Timurid:
Florida is still the south and old Confederacy. Kansas is midwestern. I’m guessing there is some geography involved.
dmsilev
@Ian G.: I think the King in question is the racist Iowa King, not the racist New York King.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@ChrisS: @mad citizen: the Dems need to get some unwonted message discipline and hammer this point even if a reporter in the halls of the Capitol asks them if it’s raining outside.
@lamh36: Brian Williams is very Concerned about the optics of this
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, VA is pretty blue now, and they seem to have a deep bench.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: I keep trying to tell people around here but they won’t learn.
Ridnik Chrome
@Baud: I hope it holds up. Beating Walker and Kobach would take most if not all of the sting out of losing to Ted Cruz.
Platonailedit
@ChrisS:
Fucking gerrymandering and big time ball dropping by dems in 2010. Let’s hope 2020 will change that.
Death Panel Truck
At last! We’ve won the House! I’m pretty wound up and need to laugh, so I’m gonna binge watch The Young Ones. Every time Vyvyan slams Rick’s head with a cricket bat I’ll pretend he’s hitting Trump or McConnell.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: It pleases me because I still consider myself a Virginian by upbringing and family, and it’s nice to see it not be the deep-red hellhole it was when I was a kid.
JWR
@Jerzy Russian:
Thank you. ;-) But I think I got that from Colbert. BTW did anyone see Triumph the Insulter-in-Chief on Colbert’s show last night? It was LOL hilarious!
lamh36
@dmsilev: nope the tweet I posted is on Peter King
mad citizen
I’ve been listening to an audio tape on the 1920s Teapot Dome scandal–bribes for rights to public oil fields. In the Senate investigation part, and am reminded of all the stonewalling techniques that are used by those accused. Even worse, what happens when Trump claims Exec. priviledge and it goes to the Supreme Court?
A fun wikipedia page is the list of indicted federal politicians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_federal_politicians_convicted_of_crimes
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: It sounds like we might be 2-3 cycles away from taking NC from the GOP also.
Mai Naem mobile
My congressional seat just went to Democrat Greg Stanton. Not a pick up – it was Krysten Sinema’s seat but hes a good guy and pretty sure he will vote more liberal than Sinema.
japa21
@Baud: You don’t know how much it pains me to see what he has done to my old home state. But looking at other results, it’s obvious WI isn’t what it used to be. Even if it does elect Baldwin.
Suzanne
Florida, seriously…..what the fuck is wrong with you?!
Ian G.
@dmsilev:
I want to drink brandy out of both of their gilded skulls.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: NC didn’t go as well as I hoped tonight, but the potential is there. They’ve still got some terrible gerrymandering going on and presumably they won’t next time.
BTW, if I recall correctly some districting reform proposals are on the ballot in various states and doing well.
david
TX District 32. Pete Sessions (R) is losing to Colin Allred (D).
Sessions ran in a race with no Democratic Party candidate in 2016 in a district that voted Clinton over Trump.
That’s just how screwed up the Democratic Party is down here. So many races are Republican unopposed.
Suzanne
@Mai Naem mobile: STANTON!!!
That’s good news. He’s as progressive as we can expect in this district.
BlueDWarrior
And now even 538 says you can start calling Nancy Pelosi presumptive Speaker of the House.
b1narys3rf
@Peale:
As much as I’d like to see them become a second Easter Island tribe, in a fact-based sense *aren’t* they though? Whereas here in round at ends and hi in middle, they’re almost every bit as awful and extreme as they are in any other state. Kasich rode his “Medicaid Expansion” rodeo for years, but that was the only exception I can think of.
Kent
@mad citizen:
Honestly in my mind it’s not about convicting Trump. Never going to happen with a GOP Senate. Only thing that matters is bleeding the monster with 1000 cuts until he is unelectable in 2020. Keep your eyes on what is important. If Dems managed to take him out we’d be left with President Pence and the mainstream media would get all into a tizzy about making a fresh start with Pence and turning the corner and giving him his honeymoon. And that could be worse than a heavily wounded Trump in 2020.
BlueDWarrior
One the questions that Democrats are going to have to ask themselves going forward is how to regain the ability to win statewide in the Old Confederacy (minus Virginia). Because right now, the only reason this night was not a complete washout for Republicans is the Solidly Red South.
I’m not sure yet what you need to do except keep banging against that wall until it finally cracks.
cain
Damn, Gillum lost. :( I just hate that a racist won. Gillum was the better candidate.
Matt McIrvin
@b1narys3rf: Every so often you get a Mitt Romney who gets Presidential ambitions and quickly reverts to form. I’m thinking we might see Charlie Baker go through the metamorphosis sooner or later.
Matt McIrvin
@BlueDWarrior: Voting rights, voting rights, voting rights. But we probably don’t have the federal teeth to make it happen that way.
Aleta
I wonder how Michigan’s initiatives for redistricting and automatic registration are doing.
Aleta
@cain: Is it close enough for a recount?
mad citizen
@Kent: Yes, I note Silent Cal Coolidge, who I get the sense knew something about the Teapot shenanigans (not done with my book yet), won election in 1924.
On another note, I’ve had the ABC nonstop coverage on my tv via YouTube. One of them said something about a poll of Dems (House Dems?), showing they are split on Speaker Pelosi, etc. Depends on the size of the victory. You can never win with these people.
Just tweeted Jon Karl at ABC asking to explain the 1994/2018 number of Seats changing anomaly.
Omnes Omnibus
@cain: Good point, let’s focus on the negative.
Suzanne
Sinema is behind. AAAAHHHHHHHH hold me.
Suzanne
And Stacy Abrams is down by a lot. Systemic polling error? Voter suppression? Some combination thereof?
opiejeanne
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes! How are things in Wisconsin? (I’ve missed you but I understand why you didn’t stick around as much)
joel hanes
@Suzanne:
3 to 5 hour lines have been reported, but only in certain precincts. If you know what I mean.
Timurid
@Ian G.:
Shah Ismail 2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Marv
Omnes Omnibus
@opiejeanne: Baldwin won and Walker lost.
Timurid
@Suzanne:
D) Rigged like a 5-masted schooner
joel hanes
@Suzanne:
Sinema is behind.
With a fucking Green third-party spoiler splitting off 2% in a 1% race.
Barbara
I had to leave for awhile because I was getting too hyper. NYT has great state by state format but it’s clear they are holding back from calling a lot of races because, I assume, they are being cautious about calling the house to flip.
By my count we are at 26 and that is without CA.
Luria and Spanberger both look like they pulled it out.
Faso and Tenney look like they are out in NY. (Yeah Delgado!) And NYT is forecasting a Collins loss. Be still my heart.
It looks like three seats flipped in PA (maybe one more) and in NJ. Fucking Menendez is winning by 10 points.
As I write, Steve King is behind but still favored to win.
b1narys3rf
Please let it be true what I’m hearing that Steve “White Pride” King of IA is going down.
Suzanne
@joel hanes: Yes, I know.
However, my Dem State Senator, Sean Bowie, won reelection, as did Dem incumbent State Rep, Mitzi Epstein. And my OTHER State Rep is a new Dem, Jennifer Jermaine. And it is looking like 5 of Arizona’s 9 congressional districts will be Dem.
Weird.
burnspbesq
Consolation prize: Duke is hammering Kentucky. Up by 24 early in the second half.
Ted Cruz could take oily lessons from John Calipari.
Mai Naem mobile
@Suzanne: I wish Kirkpatrick had waited to run for Flake’s seat instead of running for McCain’s seat. Kirkpatrick knows how to appeal to the rurals better than Sinema.
Bill Arnold
[silly but on my mind]
Question: Creedence Clearwater Revival: Who’ll Stop The Rain?
Answer: It’s a collective effort.
It has been raining Fascism. Will still be but maybe it will turn into a dreary drizzle now.
Seriously, the fight against fascism and selfish nationalism has just started.
And climate change is an existential threat.
Suzanne
@Mai Naem mobile: Kirkpatrick is a snore, though. I don’t think she has a chance statewide.
Bill Arnold
@mad citizen:
Among other things, leaks, including massive leaks (panama papers, Paradise Papers, and also general open-source investigations. Both of which are newishly more powerful.
It is now possible to leak without getting caught, if one is disciplined and competent with their comsec/opsec. (And also not-unlucky.)
pinacacci
Sorry I haven’t read the comments but I’m in absolute despair as a Florida resident. Fucking DeSantis and Scott, this can’t be right, I feel almost as bad as Nov 7 2016, this is horrible horrible news. How the hell did DeSantis win, he’s so loathesome even my fox loving mom found him disgusting.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@joel hanes:
The Green Party candidate here (Angela Green) dropped out of the race a few days ago and gave her support to Sinema. Fucking too little/too late since most votes here are mail-in and over half the ballots are sent in well before election day. I know a few purity pony Greens and frankly I’m surprised they know what a ballot is or how to use one. Fuck these ignorant, Nader-spawn assholes.
I still think Sinema has this, but it’s going down to the wire.
Spinoza Is My Co-Pilot
@Bill Arnold: With you 100% on all of that.
Ithink
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Feeling your pain down here in Texas!