On Saturday night I posted this comment in a reply to smintheus who was expressing concerns over the reported constraints on the reopened Kavanaugh background investigation.
1) This, like every other one of these too cute by half maneuvers they pull, is going to blow up in their faces. This actually increases the pressure on Flake, not reduces it. Flake made it clear that the only limit on the investigation was a week, which isn’t actually a problem for the FBI when conducting a priority Special Presidential (Directed Background) Investigation (SPIN). Basically they’re humiliating Flake. That didn’t work out so well for them last week. Flake and Coons are appearing together on 60 Minutes tomorrow night and I guarantee they’ll be asked about this.
2) You wan’t to make Avenatti go away or, at least, chill him out as much as possible. This has just pissed him off more. He’s already scheduled to appear with his client on at least one Sunday show tomorrow. I realize that McGahn has gotten used to dealing with the walking dead that have been the President’s legal team over the past 19 months or so, but Avenatti is in a whole different league than past their primes Dowd and Giuliani and a never was like Sekulow. All they’ve done is waved a big red flag in front of an already angry bull. They seem to have forgotten that he already set the conditions that ended with Michael Cohen pleading guilty in Federal court in an allocution that inames the President as his unindicted co-conspirator.
Just as they completely misplayed their hand over and over and over again last week, they’ve decided to get a head start on doing so next week.
As I’ve written here several times, there is a lot of time between now and next Friday. And then there will be a lot of time between the initial procedural vote by the whole Senate and when they hold the final vote 72 hours later. Every time these morons have a chance to actually help themselves by not making things worse, their instinct is to make things worse.
NBC News has now confirmed earlier reporting by The New York Times that while the one week time constraint remains, the other parameters that limited who the FBI may interview, as well as the overall scope of the background investigation,
Sources confirm to NBC News that the White House has authorized the FBI to expand its investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Brett Kavanaugh by interviewing anyone it deems necessary by the end of the week. Great reporting by @PeterAlexander @GeoffRBennett
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) October 1, 2018
The real reason for this is that Senator Jeff Flake made it public in a televised interview this morning that a pro-forma, limited reopened background would not serve the needs of the country.
Jeff Flake says he wants the FBI to do a "real investigation" on Kavanaugh: "It does no good to have an investigation that just gives us more cover, for example. We actually need to find out what we can find out." (via ABC) pic.twitter.com/RuYjXZeCyM
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 1, 2018
The removal of the constraints on the scope of the investigation are all about trying to ensure that Senator Flake can get to yes in his support for Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination. And because Senator Flake is providing top cover for Senators Murkowski and Collins, and possibly Senators Manchin and Heitkamp, the White House and Senator McConnell are going to do everything possible to get him to move to yes.
This is also why Senator McConnell just concluded a Majority Leader’s floor speech excoriating the Democratic senators, and specifically Senator Feinstein, over how Dr. Blasey’s accusations against Judge Kavanaugh were handled. Senator McConnell has now publicly staked out that his official position is that this whole thing is a conspiracy among and between Senator Feinstein, the other Democratic Senators, including Senator Schumer the minority leader, Dr. Blasey’s attorney who was recommended by someone on Senator Feinstein’s staff. And why he’s asserting that there will be a vote on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination this week.
The top Republican in the US Senate says there will be a vote this week on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh https://t.co/AHV8sHWp4c
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) October 1, 2018
With the constraints on the scope of the FBI’s reopened background investigation, the only vote the Senate may be able to take this week would be the initial procedural vote sometime on Friday to move to the final vote 72 hours laters, which would be Monday.
Time is not Judge Kavanaugh’s friend right now. Nor Senator McConnell’s or the President’s. With the removal of the constraints on the scope lifted, and former classmates of Judge Kavanaugh’s coming out of the woodwork about his drinking problems in college, pressure is going to grow on Senator Flake in regard to the statement he made on 60 Minutes last night that if Judge Kavanaugh lied during his confirmation hearings, including the hearing last week, that his nomination must be voted down.
@JeffFlake Isn't the nomination already over by your definition on 60 Minutes? A few #LiesUnderOath #JudgeKavanuagh told in the hearing were about blacking out, yearbook entries, & his not being a legacy @Yale pic.twitter.com/N6B1DNiFno
— Linus Wilson (@linuswilson) October 1, 2018
One final, important point: the FBI does not want to be left holding the bag on this! Regardless of the actual partisan political registrations/affiliations and/or ideological preferences of the leadership at the FBI, right now the FBI is hoping that the Democrats take at least the House, if not also the Senate, in the midterm elections next month. They are hoping this happens so that they can get some institutional top cover from Congress to both remove and check the political pressure that the President and his surrogates in Congress have been placing on the FBI because of Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation. The last thing the FBI’s leadership wants right now is to replace angry, conspiratorial Republicans running the House and/or the Senate with angry Democrats that are going to shred them over a White House and Senate majority GOP leadership constrained and therefore botched background investigation into Judge Kavanaugh. That’s why there were repeated leaks about this over the weekend. As I’ve written here repeatedly: the US Intelligence Community will leak when it is in its strategic interest to do so. These leaks were in the FBI’s strategic interest and they accomplished the objective. They got the constraints on the scope removed.
Open thread!
Cermet
For now, Friday is a long time away so, here’s hoping!
schrodingers_cat
A victory for the truth on Gandhi’s birthday!
TenguPhule
I’m sorry, written confirmation or get outta here. There is a credit deficit in the White House and its cash only now.
dmsilev
There are a lot of people coming forward to make it clear that Kavanaugh lied about his drinking habits. In a rational world, that would be enough to sink him. Never mind the sexual assaults. Never mind the few hundred thousand dollars in debt related to “buying season baseball tickets for friends, and then letting the debt sit for years while waiting for them to pay him back.”. Never mind the clear unwillingness to take an objective view on any partisan question. Etc.
JPL
I’m not sure what it means to expand the investigation. Will Chris Garrett be interviewed now? How about interviewing Kavanaugh again, and request he take a polygraph test. At least then we can find out he lied during his testimony.
TenguPhule
2 years too late. The horse left the barn, the barn burned down, the farmer collected the insurance and now its an illegal landfill.
TenguPhule
Community over country?
/If I sound bitter its because the leaks keep sprouting in the dikes and we ran out of fingers to patch them about 80 leaks ago.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
There are apparently plenty of people willing to collaborate the fact that Kavenaugh is lying. And of course more sexual abuse allegations, including Avenatti’s client. Sounds like now the FBI might actually talk to those people. I’m still in the position I’ve been in since Friday, feeling helpless and just hoping, but I’m feeling a little more hopeful about my hoping.
I listened to that 60 Minutes interview this morning. I was hoping they would ask Flake how he felt about the fettered version of an “investigation” but they didn’t. They spent a lot of time talking about bipartisanship, and both Flake and Coons seem genuinely committed to the idea that getting back to being able to compromise across party lines is crucial to our democracy.
But then they asked Flake if he would have been able to take this stance if he weren’t retiring. The answer was an unqualified “no”. So I guess he’s true to form, wringing his hands but going along with the death-cult party line anyway.
Still, he did say that thing about lying being an automatic disqualifier. Not “I’m troubled”. Unambiguous statement he’d vote no. We’ll see.
My wife met and is deeply impressed with Coons. She’s hoping to work with him in the future.
oldgold
At the Democratic Underground there is an interesting post that sets forth information corroborating Swetnick’s description of Beach Week ’82 parties with Quaalude-spiked alcohol. This information comes from yearbook entries of close friends of Kavanaugh.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211218288
MisterForkbeard
This is good and all, but Trump and McConnell DID manage to burn half of the allowed investigation time on a useless investigation, so this is still somewhat of a victory for them.
If it comes down to it, Flake could already justify voting “no” easily due to Kavanaugh’s lies, but I think he wants the FBI to formally state that Kav lied…. which they probably won’t do, because they’re not looking into his testimony. They’re looking into the allegations, to the extent they’re bothering at all.
@TenguPhule: This is one of those cases where the good of the country demands that the Intelligence Services NOT undercut the president unless it’s absolutely necessary to do so. They have to thread a needle – it’s easy to look at Trump and say “This dude is obviously guilty and awful for the country”, but the FBI doesn’t really get to make that determination without a lot of hard evidence… or when Trump tries to shut down any investigation into himself, which is unambiguously bad for the country.
JMG
Mitch can schedule all the votes he wants. If Collins, Murkowski and Flake want it postponed, it will be. PS: The FBI can investigate quite a great deal in five business days.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@TenguPhule: Yeah, you do sound a little bitter. I’ve been spending a lot of time in a state of uncharacteristic despair, as idiotic starry-eyed optimism is my default state. But the last few days, I dunno, have sort of refilled my stores of optimism. Just a little, but enough to get me to my next birthday I think. (Our current president* was illegitimately “elected” on my birthday in 2016).
smintheus
@JPL: If Garrett confirms that Christine Blasey was dating him in that period, then Kavanaugh is proven to have lied when he said that Blasey and he were in different social circles. That’s disqualifying right there.
NotMax
Shorter Hatch: Hurry up with that fig leaf, already.
Getting the feeling the fuse has been lit on Wray’s tenure?
Sister Golden Bear
Posted to a dying thread this morning, but this bears repeating, because it nails why this is such a gut punch to so many women. It’s been appearing on my Facebook feed, original author unknown.
CW For survivors of sexual assault…
.
.
.
.
.
And I agree with Mnemosyne’s observation that they want to “ram through” this particular guy to make the point that they can, and we’re helpless to stop them.
Let’s prove them wrong.
The Moar You Know
Doesn’t matter. It is now an article of faith on the right that the FBI is wholly controlled by Democrats. The GOP faithful will simply consider any findings that imply that Kavanaugh (or Trump, when Mueller gets to wherever he is going with this investigation) is anything but a virginal choirboy who never drank or had sex with anyone to be lies. And I am not kidding.
I don’t know what can be done at this point. Half this country is now utterly immunized against the truth. And federal law enforcement. This is dangerous.
clay
I’ve often wondered, Adam, and I hope you might provide some insight about this:
When you talk about “the Intelligence Community” doing this or that… who exactly is making these decisions? Is it individuals all working under their own auspices? Do people get together and plan these things? Is it collective, unspoken decision-making, like the Borg (pre-First Contact)? Or is there a top-down set of directives, like the Borg (post-First Contact)?
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Also I’ve known enough Intelligence professionals to trust them a hell of a lot more than I trust anybody in Republican leadership. They are in a very difficult situation and protecting the Constitution and the country, which all federal employees are sworn to do, puts them at odd with the White House.
burnspbesq
Just a reminder: Kavanaugh was obviously unfit for the Supreme Court long before any shit hit any fan. He’s as far outside the mainstream of judicial thought as Bork was.
indycat32
What does the FBI actually do when they conduct a background check, because they seem to have missed a lot of relevant information. Don’t they talk to college friends/roommates? Don’t they check financials?
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: They didn’t burn half of it. The investigation started Friday afternoon/evening. And the interviews that were done are not wasted time.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
One of the investigations I’m hoping for– and I seriously wonder if there are resources and just the time necessary for all the investigations we need– is just what the fuck went on the NY office of the FBI. IIRC even Comey admitted there was some fuckery going on
Adam L Silverman
@JMG: Yep and yep.
MisterForkbeard
@NotMax: I wonder what “uncooperative” means in this instance. Like, Mark Judge just saying “I’m innocent and we didn’t do anything” over and over again? Or are we talking about “The FBI tried to talk to Swetnick’s witnesses but they won’t do so unless it’s public.”
TenguPhule
@The Moar You Know:
And many in the other half have good reasons not to trust federal or local law enforcement.
Trump giving man kisses to sheriffs and other LEO and telling them to “be a little rough” hasn’t helped, either.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: No. Burning through two FBI directors in under 18 months isn’t going to happen. You notice that Wray basically handles the President the way Mattis does. He largely keeps out of the spotlight and just does his job.
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: Fair enough – they just managed to delay some of the inquiry 2-3 days, assuming people worked on the weekend. Though I think they also weren’t allowed to ask certain questions (only allowed to ask about the first two allegations, not the third and possibly not Kavanaugh’s testimony, like whether he drank a lot or blacked out ) but I could be wrong there. Not sure if all those restrictions have been lifted as well, to the extent they existed.
Still not great, but you’re right that it’s better than what I was positing.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Concentration camps for children in Texas wasn’t supposed to happen either.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Something I’ve been wanting somebody to do, but they won’t, is to ask all the Republican senators if they are a “Yes” right now regardless of the outcome of the FBI investigation. That would certainly be interesting to hear. And by “interesting” I mean “throwing gasoline of the incandescent fire of rage already burning in the sane half of this country”.
Actually, it’s already a lot hotter than a gasoline fire. Need a hotter metaphor here. Something something nuclear fusion.
TenguPhule
John Cole, you don’t lose weight. Sorry.
Martin
The FBI can move very quickly on this if they are so motivated.
They do thousands and thousands of background checks annually. I know a few of our local FBI agents pretty well – they interview me regularly for background checks. Whoever they want to interview will have agents locally and people typically go out of their way to make time for agents. The interviews are done in person. I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t interview every person we know of that has a connection to this case, including guys like Whelan and anyone else who might have had a hand in trying to fabricate alibis. (I don’t see any possible way that Whelan wasn’t talking to Kav given that none of us knew that Squee had gone out with Ford and was the guy that Whelan accused). The only people that could have pulled Garrets name out of this was Kav and Judge.
After 9/11 I had dozens of interviews with the FBI, at least one per day for a while. Often 2 per day. They wanted information on pretty much every Muslim student and faculty member. It was an extremely wide net. It felt like they processed information and formed follow up questions very rapidly.
TenguPhule
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: They have become what Lincoln described in his Cooper Union speech:
TenguPhule
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
We’re going to Super Nova.
MisterForkbeard
@indycat32: Adam has a much better answer for this, as I’ve only been involved in govt background checks as an interviewee. But so far as I can tell, they go through your obvious paper trail (where you say you worked, your financial records where applicable, social media postings), interview some of your family and a few friends or roommates, some of your previous employers, etc.
It catches the obvious stuff, but clearly it’s not going to catch someone like Kavanaugh who goes after women he doesn’t know well – they wouldn’t show up in this kind of investigation. They’d only start to look into it if one of the interviewee’s mentioned it, and given that most of Kavanaugh’s contacts wouldn’t know about this, they couldn’t tell the FBI. And even when they DO (like Kavanaugh knowing about Kasowitz’ own sexual problems) they often protect their friends and don’t tell the authorities.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
Does McConnell think he has the votes to ram this thing through or is he just hoping that he’ll be able to pressure Flake et al to confirm Kavanaugh?
Adam L Silverman
@clay: There are two kinds of leaks: authorized and unauthorized. I would expect that these are authorized.
smintheus
For me one of the biggest wild cards will be whether the FBI interviews Mark Judge’s former girlfriend, who claims he told her about his joining in gang raping a drunk woman or girl. That is very strong corroboration of Blasey’s testimony, and it also destroy’s the credibility of Kavanaugh’s sole witness.
Adam L Silverman
@burnspbesq: No argument from me.
JPL
@indycat32: Most of the names on the security checks are former employers, friends and neighbors. Normally the information is provided by the person who is getting the check.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@smintheus: Kavanaugh’s stark terror of Mark Judge gives the whole fucking game away, IMnotatallHO.
Geeno
I’m still thinking “the Senator on the other side” Trump was referring to was Flake. Not supporting Trump is being on the other side, and Flake’s the one that needs to be pressured.
NotMax
@TenguPhule
Con fusion.
;)
smintheus
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: To judge by the last few weeks of his insanely aggressive posturing, McConnell seems to think that he can play a game of chicken with virtually everybody involved. He keeps losing at it, but he keeps trying.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@JMG: I’ve mentioned I have a friend who’s an agent. Friend is very close-mouthed but commented that whoever is assigned to this investigation is going to be very busy.
TenguPhule
@NotMax:
Ow. ow. ow. ow. That was terrible.
Mnemosyne
So here’s my question: if someone comes to the FBI with allegations of new crimes that are more recent, is the FBI required to forward that evidence to whatever jurisdiction the crime occurred in, or can they just shit-can it? I’m assuming they have some kind of legal duty to forward it, but it turned out that so many things were just “norms” and not legal requirements that I’m wondering.
MisterForkbeard
@JPL: Right – and Kavanaugh isn’t going to name people to interview that would know or tell about his assaults.
I had someone else ask me that this morning. “He’s already gone through 6 background checks and they didn’t find anything, so why are we making him deal with another?” Because they wouldn’t have been talking to the right people, basically.
TenguPhule
The Dishonorable Sessions vs State of California on Net Neutrality.
Dispatch the condors.
smintheus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: And Republicans’ fear of Judge. If they weren’t afraid of him, then the Senate would have interviewed Judge or even brought him to the hearing.
Originally I was extremely skeptical of Swetnick’s credibility, but the fact that the WH explicitly prevented the FBI from talking to her makes me think she may have more credibility than I’d imagined. The hostility, fear, anger, and mockery of the GOP is a strong indication of where the truth lies.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
it depends on whether the agent who receives it is a Trump supporter.
TenguPhule
@MisterForkbeard:
Plus, those only go back 10 years, IIRC.
BruceFromOhio
Poor Turtle-man didn’t get his cookies and milk fast enough, so now he’ll stamp his wittle turtle feetsies.
Life’s a BITCH, MITCH. Better get used to it.
WaterGirl
I am assuming Trump wants to be notified if a witness is “uncooperative” because he wants/needs a heads up so he can get ahead of things and dump K. if his buddy the judge is cooperating. If they get word that Judge is uncooperative, steady as she goes.
I think Judge’s girlfriend is going to put a pin in the whole thing that will pop the charade.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@smintheus:
Yep. “Sure, guys, feel free to send your cadaver sniffing dogs anywhere in my yard. Basement too. Just not the storage vault I rent, that’s a bright red line. No need to look there!”
Didn’t we already see this with Trump declaring which financial records Mueller better not pull or else?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@TenguPhule: Condors are rather large and pretty frightening.
MisterForkbeard
@MisterForkbeard: To answer my own question: The old restrictions are still in place. Kavanaugh demonstrably lied repeatedly in his hearings about his own highschool behavior, as well as in his media interview. Josh Marshall over at TPM says the FBI isn’t allowed to look into that at all: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-much-lying-is-okay-for-a-justice
Essentially, it only matters to Flake (and others) if the FBI can prove that Kavanaugh is lying about the assault itself, not about any of his defense. Because the FBI can’t look at his defense. I think where we’re going is a very terse report from the FBI that they can’t recommend charges and Republicans will pretend this is a clean bill of health and vote for confirmation. Wouldn’t be surprised if the media follows suit, though they’ve been surprisingly good about it so far.
Martin
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Gasoline fires have a pretty low temperature – around 1500F (combustion at around 500F). Acetylene is closer to 3000F, and thermite around 4000F.
Mnemosyne
@smintheus:
McConnell’s and the rest of the top Republicans’ very public aggression is another thing that’s making me wonder if it’s an open secret that Kavanaugh has been preying on conservative/Republican women. If so, part of the aggressive posture would be to make sure those women know that if they dare to come forward, they’ll be dragged through the mud just like Christine Blasey Ford.
TenguPhule
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I’ve always found them impressive.
MisterForkbeard
@smintheus: I’ve always thought Swetnick was credible. Hell, her signed affidavit (under penalty of perjury and the loss of her security clearance and therefore her job) if she was found to have lied should have been somewhat persuasive on its own, but she also says she can produce other witnesses as well.
It doesn’t mean she’s right, but that level of corroboration would explain why the White House (and others who keep trying to discredit her accusation by asking why she kept going to parties she knew had sexual assault happening) is trying so hard to keep her allegations out of the general discussion.
Mike in DC
Honestly, just a collection of testimony supporting the finding that the nominee lied a dozen or more times should be sufficient to kill the nomination. But who knows what Saint Jeff of Arizona’s standard will be.
AliceBlue
I’m one of the fortunate women who was never assaulted or groped, but Kavanaugh is bringing back unpleasant memories of my first husband, who was also a high functioning alcoholic. The defensive anger, the fake tears, even some of his facial expressions..
Adam L Silverman
@indycat32: Here’s a link the SF 86 form:
https://www.opm.gov/forms/pdf_fill/sf86-non508.pdf
You’ll notice these instructions in regard to filling it out that everything is limited to the previous 10 years and anything before the age of 18 is to be excluded unless necessary to establish a minimum of 2 years in occupation, residence, etc. When a new background investigation is done, either as part of a normal renewal for a clearance or, as in this case, for nomination/appointment to a new position, the investigation only goes back as far as the previous one or 10 years, whichever is more recent. Moreover, the requesting department/agency/bureau/office can constrain the investigation as they are the requesting client.
What this means is that if Kavanaugh had never mentioned he had an alcohol problem and none of the personal and professional references he listed, none of the people that those people indicated should also be talked to did so, then it is not something that the background investigators would know they need to look into and review.
I have avoided doing a post on this, though I’ve considered it, but in an attempt to get me fired and removed from the first Army program I worked for, the Prime contractor on the project had me falsely accused, and not by my alleged victim, of physically assaulting a female trainer that was on site with the program. This fell apart within 72 hours when the program leadership – the Deputy Program Manager, the Chief of Staff, and then, by teleconference, the Program Manager (all three of whom have served as references for me over the past decade) – brought in my handpicked teammates to talk to them about deploying without me. Once they heard from my teammates, did some additional follow ups, the whole accusation fell apart. Apparently the fact that I wasn’t in Federal custody because this alleged assault happened on FT Leavenworth never seemed to have impacted anyone’s thinking that I hadn’t done anything even remotely like what I was accused of. Two years later the same company tried to resurrect this same idea by claiming I physically assaulted another woman, a VIP guest I was briefing at the program HQ in VA (also Federal property) who was a former Undersecretary of Defense. This too fell apart in short order when the Program XO who was sitting next to me made it clear that he witnessed no such thing. Eventually the company did fire me over a technicality without the Program Manager’s, whose staff I was now on, authorization for actually doing something he’d ordered me to do. They then refused to reinstate me and blocked all attempts to reinstate me with the collaboration of a GS 15 at TRADOC G2. Every time I go through a background investigation I disclose this, because it is germane to the question about being terminated, and provide references who will back me up. Moreover, I have all the documentation, including the emails, from all of this that I offer to provide. Finally, I was asked to be a cooperating witness by Army Criminal Investigation Division (CID) in 2010 in their investigation into the Prime contractor of this program, as well as at least one of the people that cooked up this scheme to get me fired. After getting approval from my chain of command at USAWC and at TRADOC G2, I met with them for several hours, gave them over a thousand pages of emails and other documents, and was prepared to testify if necessary for the prosecution.
The reason I’ve related this story is that I purposefully disclose this to ensure that I’m not just truthful and forthcoming with the background investigator, but that they know I am by offering information that may not always show me in a good light. I’m demonstrating I don’t have anything to hide and that I’m a good risk if privileged with a clearance.
smintheus
@Mnemosyne: It’s almost certain that McConnell has oppo research like that on his own nominee. The rain of bullsh!t we got about the tender, sweet lady-loving Kavanaugh right after his nomination was no accident.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: The President’s enablers think the latter can be sold to voters, the former is a different story completely.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Yep, they’ll farm out what they need to the New Haven and Atlanta and Charlotte and other field offices.
Adam L Silverman
@Geeno: Flake’s a devout Mormon. The worst thing he’s ever done is either say “fuck” or drinking a caffeinated beverage.
Adam L Silverman
@Mnemosyne: Yes, now that the constraint on scope has been removed that information will be forwarded to the appropriate investigatory agents.
smintheus
@MisterForkbeard: The fact that she continued to hang out at high school parties while she was in college suggested to me she was pretty weird. If a guy does that, he’s practically written off as a Wooderson type.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: What do you think of the worries expressed by MisterForkbeard at #57. Do you think that’s accurate or is it older info from before they supposedly took the limits off the investigation?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t know how they think they can sell this to voters. Especially, FSM forbid, if many children directly die from this treatment. Losing an election/getting impeached would be the least of Trump’s worries at that point. The rest of the world would be very interested in charging Orange Boy with crimes against humanity, even if he never faced a tribunal at the Hague.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Mnemosyne
Also, too, if any of our legal beagles have the stomach to look at the AZ prosecutor’s memo saying that she thinks that Christine Blasey Ford is a lying liar who lies, I would be interested in your opinion. Funny, there doesn’t seem to be a matching memo from her saying that she fully examined Kavanaugh and found him to be truthful … ?
Millard Filmore
@MisterForkbeard:
For the victim it is a traumatic and possibly life ending event. For Kavanaugh its just another party night.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: I remember seeing a picture of Bishop Mitt drinking a Diet Coke.
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: To be clear, I re-read it and Marshall doesn’t explicitly say the FBI aren’t allowed to look at those lies – he just says “the debate” is structured otherwise.
I think it’s still in effect, and the FBI probably won’t issue a report that says “Kavanaugh lied about his drinking practices, the types of parties he attended, and various aspects of his yearbook as corroborated by other witnesses”, but will instead issue a “We don’t have enough evidence to know one way or the other what he did” report, and Marshall believes that’s going to be enough for Republicans given the “debate” structure they’ve set up where we’re not allowed to consider anything but the actual allegations themselves.
Which is sort of true – Kavanaugh also revealed a deep anti-Democratic Party animus as well as a number of temperament issues that make him unfit, but we’re not really allowed to talk about those in the media. Or at least, not allowed to say they’re disqualifying.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: My understanding from the reporting I’ve seen since about 4 PM EDT is that the constraints on the scope of the investigation have been lifted. The FBI investigators can now speak to whomever they deem they need to. They can follow up on leads provided by people they’ve interviewed.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, remember I currently live in and grew up in condor country. The Boy Scout council(Venture County council) patch has a condor prominently displayed on it and the Boy Scout camp I went to(and near where I take some of my Milky Way pics) is next to the condor preserve.
Martin
@Mnemosyne: I would guess not. If I had to guess based on his behavior on Thursday that he knows he was a real shitbag through college, including committing things that he knows now are felonies, but once he got his course set he has stayed pretty clean. Maybe he has a drinking and gambling problem, but those aren’t necessarily illegal. He’s built this life around a background story that he knows is a lie, but which everything rests on top of – his law license, job, wife, relationship with daughter, probably friends, etc. This is the story that conservatives have bought into as well. If nothing else they want to believe this story, even if they maybe don’t really believe it.
My guess is you won’t find much of anything to hold against him in his later adult life other than his need to lie about his youth. And at this point, he’s probably pretty bad at doing it instead relying on building relationships on the positive things he’s done more recently. He probably has figured that he’s free and clear, convinced himself that his good deeds have made up for his bad ones. But now he’s being asked to account for his youth for real. He could man up and just own it, and explain himself to his wife and daughter and friends, or he can deny it and lie.
I thought it was quite a tell that he started crying when he was talking about his daughter. He’s not upset that he’s being falsely accused in front of his daughter, he’s upset that he’s being accurately accused in front of his daughter and he doesn’t know where that’s going to lead. And the more he fights this in public, the more pressure he adds, and the worse that day will be when it finally collapses.
WaterGirl
@MisterForkbeard: I am hoping Adam can reassure me that you’re wrong. :-)
Adam L Silverman
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Their voters, apparently, don’t think people of color have or should have any rights. Including the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Coke Zero? Diet Coke Caffeine Free?
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Mnemosyne:
So, she was a partisan hack from the start. I guess that shouldn’t be surprising considering who she worked under and the fact that the Senate Rs on the Judiciary choose her
Mnemosyne
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
They think they can lie their way through it and their voters will believe them. And a certain percentage will — there are some creepy assholes out there who insist that it’s A-OK to traumatize children in order to punish the parents. But I do think that even Fox News will have a hard time spinning this. There will be a lot of “if only Trump had known, he would have stopped it!” claims coming from Fox.
They’re probably also assuming that they will get Russian assistance again to keep the House and Senate, but I don’t know. If I were Vladimir Putin, letting the Democrats take back the House and Senate would pretty much guarantee that the US would be out of my hair for the foreseeable future.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I am aware. But this was the only condor themed bit of popular media I could think of.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: It was regular Diet Coke, I’m quite familiar with it. In fact I’ve got a can sitting on the desk next to me right now.
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: How did he do? :)
The “scope” of witnesses has been lifted, but I’m not sure it really matters much in terms of this discussion. There’s a difference between “you can talk to whoever you want about any assault allegations” and “find out if he was lying in his defense and also investigate the allegations”, and I think we’re in the former rather than the latter. But this is way outside my level of personal knowledge, so I could be very wrong.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: This is the Church of Latter Day Saints Customer Service #:
1 (855) 537-4357
You know what to do!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: When the kid an I hiked up to Mt. Pinos last year, there’s a place at the summit with nice conformable benches to watch condors. Unfortunately there was a guy there that didn’t seem quite right(he was talking loudly to himself and didn’t seem to have a cellphone), so we went to another part of the summit to take some pics. That area had a better view of the Sierra that were about 150 miles from Mt. Pinos.
Barbara
@Martin:
This was what my husband found most disturbing — the lack of integrity over his past, the absolute unwillingness to take responsibility for the bad things about himself. “I was an idiot. My dad drank a lot as part of his social life so I thought it was pretty normal, and the friends I had did as well, and it was only later that I realized how awful it made me and how bad life could get if I didn’t stop.” I think anyone in the world could understand that.
Mnemosyne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Is that the Boy Scout facility between Ventura and Ojai? There’s a major bike trail running between downtown Ventura and Ojai that has a Boy Scout sports facility alongside it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: I have better connections than that, I was in a Mormon Boy Scout troop.
Omnes Omnibus
Twitter is saying that an ethics complaint has been filed against Kav in the DC Circuit.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: No, this is up in Lockwood Valley(home of the suicidal bunny rabbits) up by Frazier Park.
burnspbesq
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Hasn’t that been the only plausible scenario all along?
Dorothy A. Winsor
I keep thinking of the contrast between Kavanaugh and W. Everyone knows W was a drunk, but he at least acknowledged his problem and seems sincerely repentant.
Martin
So, people really should look at how California is tacking climate change.
We’re pretty much all in on renewable power, including the utilities because the state has set up a virtual cycle whereby the utilities profit when their customers use less power. Last week CARB mandated that lifecycle emissions from fuels needed to drop by 20%. Effectively, the entire operational chain for a given fuel (say gasoline) from crude extraction to refinement to delivery to use in your vehicle, needed to show a 20% drop in emissions. That’s the kind of approach that I’ve never seen out of the feds. What’s more, CARB has allowed utilities to earn credits for installing EV chargers and the like and sell those credits to fuel producers. Since the utilities are going through a period whereby they are effectively losing their customers, this gives them a new revenue source, while also making it easier for consumers to buy EVs, which reduces the fuel need by 100% rather than just the 20% should the consumer stay on gas.
This is a clever approach. It’s very difficult to incentivize an EV charger network being built out, but this might just do it.
WaterGirl
@MisterForkbeard: As long as this isn’t handed over to the NY field office, I guess I’m hoping the FBI will do their jobs. It’s mostly Trump and his constant disinformation campaign that makes people not trust the FBI. Hoping they are the good guys.
And this is so public that I doubt any agents want their names associated with a cover-up.
MisterForkbeard
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh, that’s interesting. I wonder if the person has standing or whether this was just “somebody contacted the Circuit and said they had an ethics complaint”.
I mean, Kavanaugh clearly is being unethical in at least a couple of places here, but…
?BillinGlendaleCA
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Don’t see a Boy Scout camp up there, there is a Girl Scout camp.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Two fists in the air. Yes!
smintheus
@Barbara: Yesterday I saw someone referencing a report to an incident from high school when a drunken, enraged Kavanaugh damaged a friend’s truck when he tried to break into it. Allegedly, Kavanaugh sober absolutely refused to admit to what he had done or pay for the damage he caused. It sounds like the guy thinks the normal rules apply only to other people.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Well, if you cared to go political…
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Mormons have the higest pron consumption in the nation.
Also, serial killers.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Re: Mnemo’s comment about a camp between Ventura and Ojai.
Mnemosyne
@Martin:
I disagree. I think he’s an active alcoholic who has continued his gropey behavior, but he’s been smart enough to confine it to women inside the conservative movememnt who don’t dare say anything because he’s powerful enough to ruin their lives and turn their friends and families against them.
Remember, one of the 5 allegations that came up last week was of a woman getting groped in a bar in 1998, but both the victim and the witnesses insisted on staying anonymous because they’re Republicans and they’re afraid of losing their jobs.
Also remember that Kozinski, Kavanaugh’s mentor, resigned under a cloud because of sexual harassment claims. Kavanaugh insists that he didn’t know anything about it and that he has a large number of women on his staff just because he’s such an awesome guy. ?
burnspbesq
@TenguPhule:
As much as I may approve in principle of the idea of sending a condor to pluck The KKKeebler Elf’s eyes out, this is not the right case. California is right on the narrow issue of whether net neutrality is good policy. California’s attempt to make law in this area is no-doubt-about-it pre-empted.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne: See here for a rebuttal.
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Tell me that has a happy ending and I’d love to see that again.
Gravenstone
Won’t happen, but I’d love nothing better than for Flake to look McConnell straight in the eye and tell him ‘John McCain sends his regards’, as he slowly gives him the thumbs down on the Kavanaugh floor vote. Turtle might actually collapse in a paroxysm of rage.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Putin isn’t an idiot. He knows Democrats would come after him with blood in their eyes sooner or later.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne:
I read though the threads(all six of them) and every person here who either is and alcoholic or is close to one who saw Kav’s testimony said he’s an active drinker and probably had a couple of swigs prior to testifying.
Mnemosyne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Ah, okay. I saw “Ventura” and “Boy Scouts” mentioned in close proximity and I got confused.
TenguPhule
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Bush’s human suit was not designed by committee.
Martin
@Barbara: Sure. But you have to think of a lie as an investment. It’s something that you do to increase your perceived worth. It’s not really different from getting a degree or making yourself look better or being a better person, other than the fact that its an investment that society views as a negative because the thing you are lying about wasn’t earned and because it carries with the liability that nobody can trust any of the things you say you’ve earned. But if people believe it, then it’s just as if you earned it.
In Kavanaugh’s case, that investment has earned him a LOT. It probably helped earn him his wife, his relationship with his daughter, lots of good work for the GOP, a seat on the DC Circuit, and the ability to have a significant influence at places like Yale. Because that investment has appreciated to such a large extent, it becomes increasingly difficult to pay back, and that’s what he’s being asked to do. Had he done this before his daughter was born or at least old enough to understand and before he got on the DC Circuit, it would have been a LOT easier to do. But he kept it going instead. He chose that, and maybe he now regrets it, but that’s the spot he’s put himself into. And now he’s lying to Congress, possibly to the FBI, and risks losing everything.
SiubhanDuinne
@Adam L Silverman:
Sent you an email. Don’t know if you’ve had a chance to see it yet.
piratedan
this means that his finances also may come back into play, because my understanding is that the finances got very short shrift in the ongoing controversy, so if it’s open season, there may be more than one line of inquiry opened. Consider it the Ken Starr approach… if the FBI chooses to do so but it sounds like they have at a minimum 3 incidents of sexual assault to follow up on already.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: The council(an administrative unit) covers the entire county from Ventura in the west to Thousand Oaks in the east and Pt. Mugu in the south to Mt. Pinos in the north.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: That is not surprising.
Sister Golden Bear
@Adam L Silverman: Exactly. Trump is far from the only Republican who’s worldview is akin to a Mafioso don. Same as it ever was.
Jay C
@Gravenstone:
Nice scenario, but unlikely: I think Flake has been desperately searching for some sort of solid documentation that he can use a crutch to “justify” his negative stance on Kavanaugh – maybe he thinks he’s saving the GOP from themselves, who knows? But I doubt whether he’s going to want to be jeopardizing his post-Senate prospects – that blather with Coons on 60 Minutes about “bipartisanship” rings pretty flat when Mitch McConnell is out there on the Senate floor threatening Dem Senators by name. Which again, (IMO) is about a hollow a threat as Chuck Grassley’s that Cory Booker “might face expulsion” over defying Grassley’s “confidential” BS over those Kavanaugh documents the SJC Repubs tried to keep out of the record.
I have a feeling the distinguished gentleman from Kentucky is not at all pleased with the prospect of being the Minority Leader in the 116th Congress…
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: I’m not sure what good that will do. I have a good friend who’s a devout Mormon and he will suck down regular Coke like there’s no tomorrow. He was amused by my look when he ordered it in front of me.
He’s also deployed, so drop a positive thought for Sgt Wally y’all.
PJ
Apparently Swetnick attended Montgomery County Community College (MoCoCoCo, as it was referred to in DC). As such, she probably would have been going to parties with other MoCoCoCo students, who all would have been local (and many of whom would still be living at home), and it’s not unreasonable to imagine that older local high school students would have attended them, too. In any event, as a woman who was far below what Kavanaugh would have considered his group of peers (elite Catholic school students), and as a public school grad who wasn’t even going to a “real college”, he and his fellow students may have considered her fair game.
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: He should ask for his money back from this History Department that awarded his PhD.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus:
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Every accusation is a confession.
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: I was being a smartass (there’s breaking news for you!) by facetiously suggesting Bill report Governor Romney.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@PJ: No such place if you’re talking about Montgomery County MD. It’s called Montgomery College.
Mnemosyne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
It’s next to the Ojai Valley Bike Path, about 3/4ths of the way to Ojai running kind of parallel to the 33. I remember it vividly because I almost got heatstroke right at that part of the path the first time G and I rode it together. Definitely Boy Scouts, but what was visible from the path were baseball fields.
Adam L Silverman
PJ
@PJ: This was meant to be a reply to Smintheus: @smintheus: but there is no edit button and so it lacks context.
TenguPhule
Chinese warship sails within yards of US destroyer in ‘unsafe’ encounter
What say you, Adam? Normal or worrying?
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Democrats won’t be back in control of the White House until January of 2021 at the earliest. A lot can happen in two years.
schrodingers_cat
Can we have a respite thread without Special K? Last two weeks have been terrible. I feel like I am reliving those Muslim ban days when the regime was still young and I ended up with a medical emergency.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo expat)
I was talking to a colleague on Sunday. I had forgotten that she did her undergrad at Yale. She was 2 or three years ahead of Kavanaugh. According to her, Yale had been trying to get rid of its fraternities or at least the worst of them. She said students joined senior societies based on similar interests. The fraternities were on the fringes. She said that that the frat that Kavanaugh belonged to was the worst. She called it garbage and that it said a lot about him as a person that he chose to associate with that fraternity. FWIW.
schrodingers_cat
@TenguPhule: Chinese don’t want to meet with Mattis according to WSJ.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Oh SNAP!
PJ
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: From DC and MD residents, I have only ever heard it referred to as MoCoCoCo (Northern Virginia Community College was NoVaCoCo).
Jay C
@Adam L Silverman:
@TenguPhule:
Not to mention a projection: I read that “rule or ruin” excerpt from Lincoln’s speech somewhere today, and took it to apply equally to today’s GOP. Right down to the gun reference….
Redshift
Don’t know if it’s been brought up here today, but I was greeted this morning with a bunch of headlines about Grassley’s “female assistant” saying Ford with have a very weak case against Kavanaugh in court. It was pretty annoying that it got that much coverage, but it at least made it obvious that sort of their strategy in bringing in a prosecutor was to make the storyline “if he couldn’t be convicted, forget all of these allegations.” (Of a piece with their “due process” and “innocent until proven guilty” bleating, really.)
Doesn’t seem to have had any lasting effect, fortunately. If it did, I’d love to hear Democrats asking “can’t be convicted of a crime? That’s your standard for a Supreme Court justice?
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Both.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay C: My comment at #33 above.
TenguPhule
Because there are never enough stories about what Trump’s supporters think about current events.
Adam L Silverman
I’m off to the gym. You all have fun.
TenguPhule
@schrodingers_cat:
That still leaves us with the Texas Concentration camps.
RedDirtGirl
@Sister Golden Bear: thank you for reposting that. Powerful stuff!
TenguPhule
@schrodingers_cat:
To be fair, nobody wants to meet with him that doesn’t have to.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: You are correct, they do have a second camp now, Camp Willet up in the hills above Ojai. I think they only had Camp Three Falls up in Lockwood Valley in my day.
J R in WV
We just saw a TV commercial, a joint ad by Shelly Moore Capito and Joe Manchin, and they both said they were not going to support Kavanaugh’s nomination. If I understand the vote count, that may screw “Judge” Kavanaugh’s chance of ever sitting on the Supreme Court bench!!
Have fun at the gym! How long does it take you to drive to your gym? We’re nearly an hour from the YMCA in town… serious disincentive distance.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@PJ: Weird, since I was a MD resident for 17 years (80s-90s) and taught a couple semesters there, and never heard it referred to as anything but MC or Montgomery College. I’ve never heard “MoCoCoCo” from anybody anywhere. Maybe that’s a new thing?
ruemara
@smintheus: Or, like me, she could have had more friends in the lower classes than in her classes. I was 2 years younger, mind you, since I was in accelerated learning and if I had had my wishes, I would have been at Simon’s Rock at Bard College before I’d have even graduated. But my peer group ofr friends were all my age, which meant even when I was at NYU, I sometimes went to parties filled with HS students.
Timurid
@Adam L Silverman:
He’s projecting hard enough to show Powerpoint slides on the Moon.
Chyron HR
So when will the FBI interview the not one, but two separate individuals who each came forward and confessed to the GOP that he was the one who sexually assaulted Dr. Ford? Seems like that would be a pretty important part of the investigation. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
smintheus
@Adam L Silverman: The texting evidence was sent via Sen. Blumenthal to the Judiciary Committee, which did not forward the info to the FBI. So the witness had to sent the evidence directly to the FBI. Shorter GOP: You can have your inquiry, but you can’t have your evidence.
Ladyraxterinok
@oldgold: Thanks for post. I read that at DU. It’s mind-boggling. Would seem to torpedo Kav—in a rational universe.
smintheus
@PJ: Ok, I concede that it’s not as bizarre as it seemed for Swetnick in those circumstances to be hanging with high schoolers.
Gravenstone
@Adam L Silverman: The trope is getting old, but it’s always projection with these clowns. Always.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: We could do a Fuck You, efgoldman thread. Look at what you’re missing, dude!
PJ
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I heard it from friends who grew up in the DC area in the 80s, and my nephew, who went to a small high school in Montgomery Co, at graduation about 10 years ago referred to several of his classmates as going to “MoCoCoCo.” But clearly not everyone uses it, and I can’t say I ever heard it said by someone who took classes there or taught there.
I also lived in DC through the 90s and early 00s and never heard anyone ever refer to the DC Metro area as “the DMV”, but apparently this is or was a thing, so who knows.
RedDirtGirl
@Sister Golden Bear: Golden Bear, May I share screenshots of your comment with others, possibly even twitter?
Redshift
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo expat): Yup. I was three years ahead of him at Yale. It wasn’t so much that they were actively trying to get rid of fraternities at the time, it was that there was a system of “residential colleges” (dorms/quads) that had a lot of the social functions of fraternities, so they had pretty much died out. (Apparently there’s been something of a resurgence since then, but nothing like most other schools.) DKE was the only one I remember existing, and they were known for drunken parties and disgusting misogyny, and nothing else. No one would have joined who was just a studious guy who liked an occasional beer. Just one more really obvious lie.
FlipYrWhig
@TenguPhule: Yeah, that Christine Blasey Ford sure stood out for her mental instability. What the fuck?
JPL
@J R in WV: I thought that Capito was for Kavanaugh. .
Redshift
@PJ:
It’s a recent thing. Local news people started using it within, I’d guess, the past ten years. I think it’s really stupid.
Ladyraxterinok
@The Moar You Know: Hey, since god chose T to save the US from his wrath over abortion and homosexuality, anything /anyone questioning him is against god and therefore satanic and demonic. QED
Gravenstone
@J R in WV: If accurate, that means it would only take one more (Flake, Murkowski, Collins) to turn and Brett would indeed be done. Assuming no red state Dems (Heidi Heitkamp, come in down!) waver to backfill that balance.
smintheus
Oopsie, another lie exposed:
JPL
@smintheus: Oh my, another lie. Will it matter?
Mnemosyne
@FlipYrWhig:
She’s accusing a powerful white conservative man of bad behavior. Everyone knows that all white conservative men are exemplars of only the best and moat honorable behavior, so therefore she’s a crazy, lying witch-with-a-B. QED.
Jay C
@Ladyraxterinok:
I’m guessing this comment is snark; but sadly, there are a non-trivial number of citizen/voters in this country who actually believe nonsense* like this. And who would gladly smite anyone who dared call it “nonsense”* in public.
*”nonsense” not my first choice of words
Omnes Omnibus
@Elizabelle: Fuckem.
Yutsano
@JPL: I don’t recall anyone in the MSM or really anywhere else asking her. It was like she wasn’t in the calculus except for a hard yes at all. Welp…probably gonna hear a few more negatorys coming out now.
And if true thank you Manchin. He’s giving cover to Heidi et al to say no.
NotMax
So much winning.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, this, it’s a repeat of the events leading up to the American Civll War, except the issues are much, much stupider. In the 1850s slavery was both a serious moral and economic issue, but their is no real equivalent now. I suppose it be will trail off on the end because who is going to die for the right to troll their fellow citizens and otherwise act like a fool?
Fair Economist
@TenguPhule: I am to the “Putin delenda est” stage myself. I think the first order of business after governmental reforms is crashing the market for oil and natural gas in Europe to put Russia out of business.
Mike in DC
@smintheus:
If the documentation checks out, that should be it. Trying to “pre-but” an allegation that has not even been transmitted to the committee is prima facie evidence of guilt(not dispositive, but certainly pointing towards guilt). And he lied under oath regarding his first awareness of the allegations.
JPL
@Yutsano: After the hearings she did mention that although she didn’t listen to Ford that she heard she was credible. She also mentioned that she was a conservative and still planned on voting for Kavanaugh. My best guess it was on the Washington Post, since I’m a subscriber.
JPL
@JPL: This article in the Washington Post has Capito for Kavanaugh
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/kavanaugh-supreme-court-whip-count/?utm_term=.d6d40996de12
It’s not the one I remember though.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I hope it’s at least partially for lying under oath. That should make it harder for the Rs on the committee to dismiss his lying.
Theflipsyd
@<a href="#
Theflipsyd
Sorry. On my kindle and I somehow messed up block quote
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Huh. In the morning thread, Baud said he’d be filing many complaints against Kavanaugh. He must have gotten an early start!
WaterGirl
@Chyron HR: I hope that’s a bell the two guys can’t un-ring.
Calouste
@J R in WV: Wouldn’t that be an advert calling on Machin and Capito to vote against rapey K? It seems odd that they would do an ad rather than a press conference.
Darkrose
@Yutsano: IIRC, the LDS church had a revelation that drinking Coke was okay after they bought a ton of Coca Cola stock in the 80’s. Kinda like the revelation that black men could be full members after no one would play BYU football.
A Ghost To Most
@Theflipsyd:
I think you should apologise to Cole via an email in ALL CAPS.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@J R in WV: Woah – that’s a big deal! I’m not seeing anything about this ad in news searches. Huh…
Sister Golden Bear
@RedDirtGirl: Please do.
FYI, there’s a version already floating around Facebook, which I transcribed, since we can’t embed pictures here. But the point definitely needs to be made, especially to men.
Tenar Arha
@PJ: This.
@smintheus: re: hanging out with high schoolers in college, I know you’ve already covered the friendship reason.
However, I’m more familiar with what happened around underage drinking during the transition that occurred when the drinking age was raised piecemeal nationwide from 18 to 21. Going to give my age away, but BK’s “mistake” about the drinking age in MD in 1982 is such bull that no one our age should buy it.
I know pretty exactly when I started to be able to legally drink. How it was a different year in MA, & in Europe where I visited the summer of 1982, & the state I went to college in, or the state I went to to study the summer after my freshman year. Unless he was so familiar with drinking at high school house parties that he “forgot” he wasn’t even legal to drink beer the summer of 1982, no one of our generation is unfamiliar with the patchwork of drinking age laws or when they were legally allowed to drink alcohol & what kinds!
We all knew approximately how to get around them, even if we didn’t try it ourselves. We also always knew someone who’d brag they’d managed to get around them by inviting the occasional college students. (Older siblings were an obvious advantage in this).
At the same time, occasionally underage college students would crash high school parties when they cracked down on underage drinking on campuses especially if they were at a non-residential school nearby. This is how Swetnick, who probably was 19 or 20, could’ve ended up at a prep school house party. The campus regulations were such that you couldn’t throw a big party on campus w/o demonstrating you were going to check id’s & not sell to anyone underage. Even fraternities began to care, when their insurance policies required they demonstrate a real effort. Obviously no such restrictions existed on ragers at some rich suburban kid’s home, so kids under 21 sometimes socialized together.
A Ghost To Most
@PJ: I worked right down the Pike from it for 20 years, and always knew it as Montgomery College.
Frankensteinbeck
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
There sure as Hell is. America is within visual distance of becoming a minority-majority country. To liberals that may seem like nothing much, but to more than half of whites it’s the apocalypse. Their values are utterly alien to ours.
zhena gogolia
@Sister Golden Bear:
YESYESYESYES So true!
Mnemosyne
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
The other side thinks that they do have a serious moral issue that is even worse than slavery: abortion.
It’s an obviously delusional belief to anyone who is not inside their cult, but they truly believe it.
JPL
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: They are working together to increase the amount of funding for addiction treatment, according to google. He might be able to convince her to vote no to Kavanaugh, but from what I read that would be difficult.
A Ghost To Most
@Ladyraxterinok: Fuck the christian fascists.
Calouste
@JPL: Capito Moore went to the same school as Dr. Ford, although more than a decade earlier. Reunions might become… awkward… if she votes for rapey K.
lurker dean
@Adam L Silverman: it’s like kav was trying to set a record for perjury in a congressional hearing.
SiubhanDuinne
@schrodingers_cat:
Jimmy Carter’s birthday, too!
Mnemosyne
@smintheus:
@Mike in DC:
Seriously, you guys — I will bet a large sum of money that Kavabaugh has a well-known but concealed from the public history of this kind of behavior, and they were desperately worried about covering up the two victims who were not conservatives and therefore could not be pressured by their fellow conservatives to stay silent.
There is a giant, fetid history here that’s going to come out one way or another. If McConnell pushes the nomination through and all of this shit comes put afterwards, it’s going to be monstrously bad for the Republicans.
smintheus
@Tenar Arha: Interesting argument, that had never occurred to me as a possibility. Anyway, as I said the fact that the WH is so determined to have the FBI not interview Swetnick overshadows any concerns I have about her somewhat checkered background. If she were easily turned into a travesty of an accuser, the WH would be extremely eager for the FBI to interview her and expose her as a fraud.
Ladyraxterinok
@J R in WV: Wow!! Read C was a student at Dr Ford’s HS. In an email from M’s campaign (not sure how I ended on his list) I requested he not vote for Kav. Maybe seeing that voters in other states were aware of his actions had a bit of an effect.
Jay
“As elsewhere in Europe, Russia’s influence campaign in Macedonia exploited and complemented rightwing nationalist-populist narratives based on notions of identity, race and the perceived threat of an overbearing EU. And it remains unclear whether Moscow’s actions tipped the balance.
The paradox is that, whatever their country is called, a large majority of Macedonians support EU and Nato membership, according to a recent survey. That prospect has receded, at least for now. In the continuing Europe-wide contest for power and influence, Russia just scored again.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/01/result-of-macedonia-referendum-is-another-victory-for-russia
WaterGirl
I feel pretty confident that Kavanaugh’s head is ready to explode right now. He CAN”T withdraw or he will feel he looks guilty and they might come after his current spot on the bench.
But the humiliation of having his nomination withdrawn would be HUMILIATION and UNTENABLE.
And the idea of losing in a vote in the Senate would mean UTTER HUMILIATION.
It’s not just his “job” it’s his whole station in life – he is one of the “betters” and to lose that station might even be worse than losing his family.
If I cared for this man personally, at all, I would be concerned about possible suicide.
TenguPhule
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Republicans.
Elizabelle
@WaterGirl: Or, and not to sound like TenguPhule, family annihilation. He is an angry man, and very likely a controlling one too.
smintheus
@Jay: The EU may have lucked out here. Macedonia’s economy has never been strong and it’s unemployment is about 23%. Adding Macedonia would create further instability in the EU countries with better economies. If it can’t even find a modus vivendi with its neighbor Greece, then it’s hardly going to be a productive member of the EU.
smintheus
@WaterGirl: Let him find solace in drink. I’m told he likes beer.
Elizabelle
@SiubhanDuinne: And who would have bet he would still be with us, strong and still committed?
Live strong, James Earl Carter. Seems to have beat the Big C, for the time being. More valuable work ahead.
Why can’t the Carter Center monitor U.S. elections?
Elizabelle
@smintheus: Do you have that from the possum’s mouth?
(All the weird facial expressions. Beer, beer, beer, beer, beer.)
Ladyraxterinok
@Jay C: I watch Jim Bakker videos on youtube now and then. They absolutely belive this. As do Franklin Graham and Robt Jeffress sp? pastor of 1st Bapt Church in Dallas. And many many more. See the Liberty U movie the Trump
Legacy about Mark Taylor who has been on Bakker’s show many times.
WaterGirl
@Elizabelle: I wouldn’t have caught that because I have had him pied for so long that I don’t even recall the reason. :-)
But yes, I could easily use the word “unhinged” in a sentence describing one of the possible outcomes.
JPL
The White House released testimony from two of Kavanaugh’s friends at Yale. It appears that one of them was involved in an altercation (bar fight) with Kavanaugh.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/us/politics/kavanaugh-bar-fight.html
MisterForkbeard
@JPL: I’m not seeing any indication of Capito announcing a change in her vote – mostly just some stuff from 4-5 days ago about how she and Manchin are taking the allegations seriously.
TenguPhule
@Elizabelle: I don’t think he’s abused his family before the grilling last week. Wife wouldn’t be making those faces on live tv if he was.
But I suspect all bets are off now.
Mnemosyne
@WaterGirl:
@Elizabelle:
I dunno. It may be more likely that he becomes this generation’s Robert Bork, an angry, bitter man living off wingnut welfare and complaining about how everyone conspired against him.
But it’s hard to say because, seriously, everything about his actions and demeanor while he testified last week screamed, “Active alcoholic!” to me. He probably thinks Mark Judge is a weakling for going into treatment, because Real Men can handle their nightly 12-pack of beer.
zhena gogolia
@JPL:
That happened in a real dive. I’d forgotten all about that place.
smintheus
@JPL: Who among us wasn’t involved in at least a few bar fights when we were young?
Feckless
Yes lets put our faith in the praetorian guard who decided for all of us that Hillary would never be president.
What could go wrong?
Hint see sny of the total surrenders by democrats on everything in the ladt 30 yrs on how this is going to go down.
Ladyraxterinok
@WaterGirl: Consider Anne Perry’s recent book Blind Justice. A prominent preacher is on trial for embezzeling money congregation gave for missions. When it looks like he might be found guilty, tbere are murders, a suicide, leaks about sexual perversions in high places.
zhena gogolia
@JPL:
Ahem. I rest my case.
WaterGirl
@JPL: I read the article. Where does it say the white house released testimony? The article makes it sound like the white house was asked for a comment. ??
Alternately, i wonder if this is the white house trying shift into “neutral” before they dump him?
Barbara
@JPL: No, he didn’t have a drinking problem.
MisterForkbeard
@smintheus: Is that actually what it says? I can’t see any relevant dates, mostly that it indicates Kavanaugh MAY have known about it before the 23rd (when he says he learned about it) but not that the text messages about Ramirez occurred before that date.
smintheus
Kavanaugh was ever thus.
Evasive, bullying, violent, privileged, and presumably born that way.
Mnemosyne
@Jay:
One of my friends in undergrad went on to get his master’s degree and PhD in history by doing research in former Eastern Block countries after the fall of the Berlin Wall. He always claimed he got a grant from the State Department but, well, let’s just say that I always suspected he was getting paid by a different federal agency. ?
One of the countries he went to was Macedonia, and he HATED it. Hated the country, hated the politics, hated the people. In contrast, he really loved Romania, so I don’t think he had any preconceptions or prejudices about Macedonia or former Eastern Block countries. He just learned to hate it once he got there.
smintheus
@MisterForkbeard: Yes, it says Kavanaugh was seeking to line up pre-buttals of the accusation that he later claimed he learned about only when it was published by the New Yorker.
smedley the uncertain
@smintheus: A bad case of affluenza…
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne:
There are some really pretty parts of Romania. Also, Romanians see themselves as Latins with more in common with the Italians and French than their neighboring Slavs.
The Lodger
@JPL: A basketball player named Chris Dudley? Sounds like a guy who ran for governor of Oregon in 1994. We never heard about him cutting someone’s face with a glass, though.
Mnemosyne
@MisterForkbeard:
So, yeah, he may have been preparing a defense against Ramirez’s allegations as far back as July, two months before the New Yorker story.
smintheus
@Barbara: NYT has some fun with the guy who was arrested for smashing a beer bottle over the head of the man whom Kavanaugh had just assaulted:
smintheus
@Omnes Omnibus: I have a Romanian doctor who always wants to discuss my Latin teaching before getting down to any medical questions. He’ll happily chat for 10 minutes about Latin.
Omnes Omnibus
@smintheus: I have had Romanians proudly tell that Romanian is the Romance language that is the closest to Latin.
smintheus
@Omnes Omnibus: Which is arguably true. It’s a lot closer to ancient Latin than Vatican City Latin.
Miss Bianca
@Sister Golden Bear: I just shared this on FB – credited you by nym, on behalf of the original writer.
Adam L Silverman
@J R in WV: About 15 minutes if there’s no traffic.
MisterForkbeard
@Mnemosyne: I guess I wasn’t clear – they say “Kavanaugh may have been organizing his defense” as far back as July, but they don’t actually straight out say that the text messages were sent back then – just that they have reason to say it happened earlier.
I’m being pedantic, but it’s an important distinction. Clearly Kavanaugh had prepared for it, though – the next day they had their defense and pictures ready to go, complete with lies about what the woman in question said (that she refuted Ramirez’ accusation).
Sheila in nc
@PJ: When I was at Walter Johnson HS in MD, Montgomery College was known as “13th Grade.”
Mnemosyne
@MisterForkbeard:
To me, the important point was that they started planning how to discredit Ramirez back in July. Because they knew they might have multiple accusers coming forward.
Like I keep saying: Kavanaugh’s bad behavior towards women is almost certainly an open secret among Republicans, and they decided to elevate this rapey asshole to the Supreme Court anyway, because LOL who gives a shit about the law?
I’m not even a lawyer and that attitude pisses me off.
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne: Disgusting.
“There might be a problem with the nominee.”
“Quick, ram him through before anyone can find out. Then it will be too late.”
Ruckus
@Martin:
It already is happening.
My building just installed 4 chargers in the garage. CA has mandated chargers for a number of spaces, including apt buildings with a given minimum of chargers per number of parking spaces. I don’t know if there is a cost to use them.
MoxieM
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo expat): yeah, similar. I asked my brother (’78? 79??) and he said the Dekes were, “Animal House”. Said with derision, and scorn. (movie is great, real life, not so much.)
Sasha
@Sister Golden Bear:
The author is Larisa Alexandrovna Horton
Patricia Birch
@Sister Golden Bear: The original author is Larisa Alexandrovna Horton who posted it on her FB page a few days back. It has been circulating on the net without attribution to her.