Michael Avenatti has released his email correspondence with Mike Davis, who is Senator Grassley’s Chief Counsel for Nominations for the Senate Judiciary Committee.
My e-mail of moments ago with Mike Davis, Chief Counsel for Nominations for U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary. We demand that this process be thorough, open and fair, which is what the American public deserves. It must not be rushed and evidence/witnesses must not be hidden. pic.twitter.com/11XLZJBTtY
— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) September 24, 2018
So you don’t have to squint, here’s the email correspondence that Avenatti tweeted:
As I’ve been saying in comments for several days, there is a lot of time between now and when Dr. Blasey testifies on Thursday for more shoes to drop, let alone between now and the following week, which is most likely when Senator McConnell will try to schedule the floor vote on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination. And Avenatti is just beginning his campaign of death by a thousand twitter cuts.
Open thread.
lamh36
Salter Wobchak
I think *some* skepticism around Abenatti’s claims are warranted, but couple it with the New Yorker piece and it’s not looking good. At this point I’m just wondering if Kavanaugh’s penis has its own Zillow address.
TaMara (HFG)
Reposted from below. It hit all our local papers now, too. Ms. Ramirez is from Boulder County
TaMara (HFG)
And that Avenatti letter is creepy as shit.
Wiesman
Avenatti is probably making it more likely that BK gets confirmed. The Farrow/Mayer reporting is credible, well-researched, and responsible. Avenatti comes along and drops this bomb which is so lurid that if it falls apart will just give Republicans the ammo they need to say that this is all a liberal smear job. He’d better have the goods or he just made things worse.
Martin
It seems to me if Kavanaugh is able to bring evidence to this kangaroo court (his calendars) that Ford should be able to bring her witnesses. I’d have them sitting in the gallery and mention clearly that they are there and willing to speak.
Bruuuuce
Give what we’ve heard about the questions Kavanaugh recommended asking Bill Clinton, it seems only just that he should have to face the same level of questioning. For those who believe we see what we are, we can infer the likelihood that the questions he though up at that time reflected his experience, which sounds ever sleazier.
Ladyraxterinok
1 of women disputing Ramirez’ story did a commercial for Kav. Name is Louisa Gerry.
Info in a tweet reported on democraticunderground. DU post has video of commercial.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
Breaking news! I have gotten ahold of one month’s worth of the 1982 calendar Brett Kavanaugh wants to show the Judiciary Committee to prove he didn’t assault anybody. Here is a small sample:
March 12, 1982, didn’t rape anybody.
March 25, 1982, didn’t even try to rape anybody.
March 27, 1982, thought about raping somebody, but didn’t.
Bruuuuce
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): Looking forward to all 65 entries :-P
burnspbesq
Anyone expecting a fair process has some ‘splainin’ to do.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin:
Adam L Silverman
@Wiesman:
Amir Khalid
@Wiesman:
Do Avenatti’s allegations in these matters have a tendency to fall apart? My recollection is that they do not.
tobie
@Ladyraxterinok: I’ve seen the commercial. It seems to have aired a lot this past week in the MD/DC/VA market. In the commercial, Louisa Garry tells us she’s a teacher, mom, and coach and that we need someone with Kavanaugh’s empathy and integrity on the court. I’m trying to think of other Supreme Court nominees where we’ve had TV commercials featuring non-lawyer character witnesses. Some PAC aired an ad for Gorsuch featuring a woman in the Justice Department who thought highly of him as a judge and person but the soccer-mom angle seems unique to Kavanaugh.
TaMara (HFG)
@Wiesman: What makes you think it would fall apart?
Schlemazel
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
Saturday (in pencil)
8:00 go to kegger at Larry’s (folks out of town)
9:45 get shitfaced
10:15 rape Suzie
11:00 puke & pass out
Geezer
@Martin: Ford’s witnesses all deny her allegations so having them available would work out well for the opposition.
PsiFighter37
@Amir Khalid: He’s generally been good, but it’s one thing to deal with what is a bit of a sideshow matter (which is what the Stormy Daniels affair boils down to, even though that would be an impeachable offense in normal times). This is much different, and the stakes are much higher. Street fighting when it comes to a SCOTUS nomination means he better have the goods. Otherwise, he is going to make it worse for everyone on our side.
hells littlest angel
Sounds to me like Kavanaugh will be doomed to spend the rest of his life as a wealthy, prominent man without a seat on the Supreme Court. On the courts at his country club, his tennis stroke will be the tennis stroke of a bitter, haunted man. So sad.
scav
I’d imagine there’s a spike of activity at LinkedIn due to people scrubbing their Educational histories . . .
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Amir Khalid: they don’t always become public, though. He’s been teasing more trump mistresses for a couple of months, I believe
and it seems to me his letter has more to do with Mark Judge and Kavanaugh, and assuming BK at the very least knew about what Judge was doing
Rommie
So what do you think is Plan B? Ride this one into the ground, vote on a new person next week in a jam session, vote on a new person in the lame duck session, give up for now? Or something else?
Wiesman
@Amir Khalid: Well, I hope you’re right. I think he’s a shameless publicity whore and if he had to choose between doing the responsible thing and possibly getting a little less press, or #yoloing, he wouldn’t even hesitate.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@Geezer: Maybe he’s talking about witnesses to her telling about it. They can’t testify to whether it happened, since that would be hearsay, but they can testify that she told them, and when she told them, years ago.
Adam L Silverman
@Geezer: Actually that is not the case. Judge, who has written two books about being a blackout drunk/alcoholic all through high school said he didn’t recall and refused to voluntarily testify. Grassley refuses to subpoena him and put him under oath. The woman that Dr. Blasey stated was there indicates she doesn’t have any specific information about the attack, which isn’t necessarily surprising as she wasn’t in the room, but she did state that she believes Dr. Blasey.
And lest you reply with “well, the committee’s counsel questioned them under penalty of perjury”, Mike Davis the the committee’s chief counsel who made that statement doesn’t have the ability or the authority to question anyone under penalty of perjury.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: This is why Avenatti’s doing it…there likely is *an* incident, and obviously that’s one too many, and that’s why he’s able to ask if this is something he, Judge, and the ‘boys’ did on a regular basis/multiple times.
Sucks to be you, GOP. Let us know when the fever breaks/Koch money runs out…
Ella in New Mexico
I’m still squinting.
Is there anyplace I can read this where it’s in 12pt font? Jesus.
Chetan Murthy
@Geezer: *cough* Maybe you didn’t read the entirety of Ms. Keyser’s comments. If you didn’t, you should. If you’re a troll, you should find a stupider commentariat to troll.
Jerrt
Fortunately for the Senate Committee members, a former member of the Starr Inquisition has already helpfully lit the way in which to *format* the questions to Kavanaugh for maximum perjury exposure:
“If Ms. Ford were to say that you assaulted her during a get-together after hours during high school, would she be lying?”
“If Ms, Ramirez were to say that you pressed your penis against her face in the Yale dormitories, would she be lying?”
“If a woman were to say that you and Mark Judge had made repeated efforts to intoxicate women in order to sexually assault them, would she be lying?”
#Petarded
Mr. Kite
Avenatti. He burned through his welcome rather quickly. It’s open season now. Who is the next celebrity lawyer to jump into the fray?
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: Also, if this happened in MD, and he’s representing the victim, he can go and press charges. Maryland changed their statute of limitations on rape and sexual assault and made that change retroactive.
Ella in New Mexico
@Amir Khalid:
IIRC, he’s batting 1:1000 right now. I’ll take whatever he’s got.
dmsilev
@Rommie: Even if Kavanaugh commits nominative seppuku tomorrow, there’s basically no way they’d get a new nominee voted on before the election. That’s only six weeks from now, and there’s only so much the GOP can do to short-circuit things compared to the normal three month timeline. I’m sure they’d try for a lame-duck session vote though.
Adam L Silverman
@Ella in New Mexico: Sorry, I looked and WP will only let me blow it up so much. If you click on Avenatti’s tweet and then click on the image, you should be able to make it big enough to read.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ryan Grim, of The Intercept, and Tom Nichols, of the The Federalist, find common ground.
So…. Louise Gerry can piss off
Another Scott
@Ella in New Mexico: Ctrl + in your browser should “magnify” the text and image a little. (Though the text much more than the image…)
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): And WTF is it with his calendars, for God’s sake? So he doesn’t have “get drunk and stick my dick in some girl’s face” written on his calendar – that’s supposed to prove he *didn’t*? Just like with the 65 pals and gals who signed a letter saying, “welp, he didn’t ever try to rape *me* so he must be a swell guy!”?
AThornton
The evidence is accumulating Kavanaugh is a serial sexual predator. There are almost certainly tens of victims and the number could be in the triple digits.
debbie
@Ella in New Mexico: @Ella in New Mexico:
Click on the tweet.
B.B.A.
Jeet is almost never wrong.
TaMara (HFG)
He has an “I didn’t rape” calendar?? This is not going to end well for him.
Calouste
Funny how all these nyms show up that I’ve never seen before, and they all agree that we shouldn’t trust Avennatti.
Amir Khalid
@Miss Bianca:
Kavanaugh and whoever suggested the calendar thing to him don’t seem to have thought that part through.
dmsilev
@TaMara (HFG): Doesn’t everyone? It’s right next to the shopping list on most phones.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Miss Bianca: Type A prep school boy, he and his parents sat down to make sure he wouldn’t miss any lacrosse practices, golf tournaments, SAT prep sessions or community service for his Yale app when they were at the shore or visiting Gran and Pops up in Maine
“Devil’s Triangle with Judge!!” wouldn’t have made The Calendar.
TaMara (HFG)
@B.B.A.: As someone asks in that thread – at what point during all of this has Avenatti presented something that wasn’t backed up? I’m curious, because I haven’t stalked him like some have.
Millard Filmore
@Ella in New Mexico:
If you are on a PC using Firefox” right click the image, select “view image”, and then do a bunch of Control-Plus until you can read it.
You can also do Control-Plus from this page but I do not know how that will mess up the formatting. If you go this route, a bunch of Control-Minus will scale you back down to normal.
JoyceH
When I read the Avenatti allegations, what struck me was that the Ford allegations sound like an immature example of the same technique – two guys in the room and Judge jumping on them. Their problem in that instance was that their intended victim had only had one beer and they were both blind drunk. So perhaps over a few years, they refined their operation.
Chetan Murthy
@Calouste: Lucky for him, he doesn’t put any weight in what those nyms think of him. I have to believe he’s careful enough to never get caught red-handed.
The antihero we need today.
geg6
This is nuts. WTF does the GOP think is going to happen here? Have they so completely lost the thread?
Okay, I know, I know…
These last two years have just been too much. I’m seriously disoriented at this point. I don’t have a clue as to how this will all end, but it can’t be good.
AThornton
@B.B.A.:
Sound like typical New Republic blatherskite. Why would Avenatti claim to have multiple witnesses he can produce and not have multiple witnesses he can produce? It would be moronically stupid.
patroclus
Avenatti isn’t up for a life-time appointment to the Supreme Court. If there’s an issue of trust, it’s Kavanaugh, the lying Republican apparatchik, who thinks torture is cool and who wants to destroy women’s liberty. And, uh, who apparently assaults women and keeps an alibi calendar.
Barb 2
Statistical research on sexual assault indicate that most assaults are from a few males. It stands to reason that he is a serial offender/bully. Often these guys run in packs of buddies. It’s been awhile since I’ve read the research on the individuals who have been caught and studied.
But then as a woman I don’t need the research – I have personal experience as have the majority of women (88%) . A pox on the GOPig females who stand behind a feel like the current creep.
Miss Bianca
@Calouste: Yeah, I was wondering about that, myself…far as I can tell the man is good at his job, whatever one might think of his personal style.
PJ
@Amir Khalid: Thinking things through doesn’t appear to be one of Kavanaugh’s and his supporters’ specialties. Their defensive “tactics” are patently absurd.
But I think that up until Trump finally got mainstream reporters thinking that maybe everything they were fed by the GOP might not be true, sliding through confirmation on a shining platter riding on a slick layer of fresh, steaming bullshit would be a given for Kavanaugh and his ilk. They just haven’t adjusted to the times yet.
TaMara (HFG)
@geg6: Partly, I wonder if between the success with Garland sham, Trump election and other “victories” they have begun to believe their own Fox news press and think they can get away with everything. They feel invincible.
zhena gogolia
Wow. There is a sprinkling of people here I’ve never seen before who have grave concerns about Mr. Avenatti.
Kay
@Miss Bianca:
Supposedly there are calendar entries not just on parties but also who attended the parties. So he would go to a social event in high school, come home, and write down who was there? Never missed any names, like… girls who went to other schools who happened to show up? A completely accurate and inclusive attendee list, recorded post-event? I’m just dying to see this thing.
Immanentize
@Calouste: I noticed that too. Folks are sweating if the troll effort reaches here.
Fair Economist
The killer problem for the Republicans is that they can’t, er, blow off the allegations. They will have to investigate. And it’s clear now Kavanaugh is a serial sexual assaulter. Even if Avenatti’s latest claim doesn’t hold up, something will.
They can’t confirm Kavanaugh now unless they want twenty years of “Vote R for rapist!”
Chetan Murthy
@geg6:
Neither do any of us, I think. I don’t rule out having to emigrate.
Immanentize
@geg6: disoriented is the word that perfectly describes my sense of the world right now.
zhena gogolia
@Calouste:
Ha. I should always read the whole thread first.
Mr. Kite
@Mr. Kite: I mean for Dr. Ford’s sake it would be nice if this didn’t turn into any more ofa circus. I wish her strength
Adam L Silverman
@TaMara (HFG): You are correct.
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
God help them if Suzanne shows up!
patrick II
I can’t tell you how happy I am to see a cut-throat like Avenatti on the Democratic side for a change. And unlike the Republican cut-throats, he is more than reasonably eloquent and he doesn’t have to lie to make a case, just simply and assertively tell the truth — over and over on every TV show that will have him, and twitter, and probably pony express if it was still around.
catclub
@Rommie:
Michael Cohen is available, and has been vetted by Mueller.
Too bad Roy Cohn is dead.
L85NJGT
@Immanentize:
I’m sure it all reads more convincing in the original Russian.
West of the Cascades
@zhena gogolia: I believe that they would answer to the name “tovarich.”
Platonailedit
Sudden onset of a new set of troll bots. Traitorous thugs are losing it.
YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S)
@Ella in New Mexico: @Millard Filmore: CNTL-0 (zer) brings you too normal. In Chrome you can right click on an image and open it in a new tab, then click to get a full size image. That usually works better than CNTL_+ since the image is at its normal size rather than a scaled down image that is expanded and pixelated. You can still scale it with CNTL-+ or CNTL_-
Miss Bianca
@TaMara (HFG): They are high on their own supply, to be sure. I’ve been wondering what was going to bring them down. Maybe this is it?
And fuck me…one of Special K’s accusers is from Colorado? Well, I know what’s going in my next communique to Senator Cory Gardner.
Kay
Well, they won’t have near enough time to put someone else to a vote before the midterms so if Special K is knocked out we wait until after the midterms. Especially now they won’t, because they’ll be questioning their entire selection/vetting process, after this shitshow.
Ken
@Kay:
STARLING: It excites him. Most serial killers keep some sort of trophies from their victims.
LECTER. I didn’t.
STARLING. No. No, you made calendar entries.
Hmm, doesn’t quite work.
Bemused senior
I posted Saturday morning that I saw Avenatti speak at a fundraiser for Andrew Janz, opponent of Devin Nunes. He was basically giving a stump speech for himself and for Democrats not to “go high ” when Rethugs went low.. he is a good speaker, though he irritated his audience who wanted to hear about Janz.
Bobby Thomson
@West of the Cascades: It’s more of a sch sound. It’s a consonant we don’t have.
Ken
@catclub:
Roy Moore is available.
His conservative credentials are impeccable, and he should have no problem getting past the Republican vetting process, apparently.
debbie
@Kay:
I’m looking forward to Trump’s morning tweets!
AThornton
@Ken:
For some serial rapists the stalk is as sexually exciting as the rape. So, yeah, he could have gone home and written down potential prey.
khead
So, Michael Avenatti actually went full 2 Live Crew in an email with a Senate Judiciary Committee Rep. Amazing.
Ella in New Mexico
@Adam L Silverman: @Millard Filmore: @Millard Filmore: @debbie: @Another Scott: @Adam L Silverman:
Awww, thanks everyone. Presbyopia sucks. :-)
West of the Rockies
@Immanentize:
Quite so.
They show up, launch an opinion grenade, then run.
Marcopolo
And now for something completely different: NYT/Sienna polls on KS-3 & CA-49 (Issa’s district) are now complete. KS-3: Blog favorite Sharice Davids (D) 51, Kevin Yoder (@sshole R) 43. CA-49: Levin (D) 51-Harkey (R) 41. These would be two of the 23 flipped seats the Ds need to take back the House. Mildly celebrate but take every poll, especially ones 6 weeks out with a grain of salt.
Link to Nate Cohn’s twitter thread discussing the polling.
We now go back to your regularly scheduled R Sexual Harrassment thread.
MisterForkbeard
@AThornton: The only thing I can think of is that his witnesses might be less credible, or perhaps he’s overselling their testimony in the worst possible light.
But I’m sure they exist, and that they’re going to say broadly what he says.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo:
hitchhiker
@TaMara (HFG):
This is exactly what’s happening. That insane Whelan debacle was a coordinated effort, cooked up by what are supposed to be the best PR minds in Republican court-packing institutions.
It took all of half an hour for the regular people to call out the cray-cray … which means, yes, they’re deep in their bubble where everything looks rosy.
Millard Filmore
@YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S): I have a rather big screen and the image did not fill it up. Even so I had to Control-Plus a few times to read the thing.
Marcopolo
@Kay: That’s my thinking. You’d have thought they might have considered entirely reworking their vetting process after the Ronnie Jackson situation (which this is resembling more and more every additional hour). Apparently not. This is what happens when the folks working at the White House aren’t the A team, the B team, the C team, or even the D team. When Trump fires everyone after the midterms I don’t know what the eff happens.
Ladyraxterinok
@Calouste: Agreed
Marcopolo
@Adam L Silverman: Send that to SteveinATL he has told me repeatedly she doesn’t have a chance. I really should have made a (small) bet with him when we had dinner in StL :). Maybe a six pack of beer. Hindsight, I hear it is 20/20.
Millard Filmore
@Marcopolo:
Space Patrol Delta (B squad)
The Thin Black Duke
@hitchhiker: Eventually, every dope pusher gets high on their own supply.
Marcopolo
@Millard Filmore: More like Spazz Force.
Kay
@Ken:
I’m fascinated by this calendar. Last names? Or just first? The incident the alleged victim described wasn’t really a “party” anyway- it was a small group. So the calendar was that exhaustive? Because that type of gathering could involve no planning at all – it could be that high school thing where you go one place and then after that another, and so on. Also (and Kavanaugh surely knows this) all we need is one omission from the calendar and it’s useless as a record. All they need is one event he attended that wasn’t on the calendar and you may as well pitch it in the trash- it’s meaningless.
Calouste
@Marcopolo: I just looked at the Senate ratings at Cook report. 8 seats are toss ups, 4 R and 4 D. No seats are listed as flips at the moment. Flipping the Senate is definitely possible.
YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S)
@Millard Filmore: yep, but a full size image scales up better than one that is displayed in reduced size, scaled by the web page.
MomSense
She warned us about all of it going back to the vast, right-wing conspiracy. To think that Kavanaugh was at the center of the Starr investigation of Bill Clinton knowing what he had done.
smintheus
@B.B.A.: My first thought when I heard of Avenetti’s claim is it sounds more like Roger-Stonesque ratf^cking than a credible tip that a real witness to HS depravity would stand behind.
Fair Economist
@Marcopolo: Adjusting by partisan lean, the CA49 poll corresponds to a nation win by 12 and the KS3 poll to national win by 16. We need to win by a little under 8 to flip the House.
Mary G
I am enjoying the thought of Twitler in full tantrum mode. The White House must be full of staffers posing keep away with his phone.
A lot of right wingers I see around are still convinced that it’s the Deep State in partnership with Dianne Feinstein who’ve made all this up to frame the poor judge who is pure as the driven snow, and there are scores of brand new bots pushing it all over Twitter. Don’t think it’ll work.
YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S)
@YetAnotherJay formerly (Jay S): and I had to go to the tweet and grab the image from there. I think WP prescales the images it puts up, to save bandwidth. I have to use the open image in new tab for a lot of twitter pics.
dmsilev
psycholinguist
Judge under oath is the key. If they can get that guy in front of the committee this thing goes atomic. We’re going to see every stop pulled to keep him away from committee, FBI, etc.
Fair Economist
I am really looking forward to Harris grilling Kavanaugh again. I hope she adopts the idea of using the wording he wrote to question President Clinton way back when. I think that would make Kavanaugh totally lose his s**t.
West of the Cascades
@Bobby Thomson: Da.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo: The identification of judicial nominees, their vetting, and then the nominating process has largely been outsourced to Leonard Leo at the Federalist Society with the list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court laundered through the Heritage Foundation. This is then run from Leo through White House Counsel Don McGahn and from McGahn to and through Senator McConnell. Senator Grassley just does what he’s told to do by McConnell on the committee end. This is both a complete breakdown of the normal process and is an abrogation of the President’s and the Senate’s actual roles in selecting, nominating, and confirming Federal court judges at all levels of the Federal courts. When the Democrats retake one or both chambers of Congress, one of the most important things the Judiciary Committee will need to do is an in depth investigation into Leo, his funding network, and his disclosed organizations – the Federalist Society and the Judicial Crisis Network, as well as his undisclosed, opaque activities.
lgerard
So who will be the next nominee?
I’m thinking the crazy religious lady from Notre Dame
moonbat
@Barb 2: What Avenatti is alluding to there in his list of questions — a “train” — was documented by anthropologist Peggy Sanday in her study of Ivy League frat boy behavior. It may not be common among your garden variety sexual predators, but it apparently at one time was a thing among our nation’s young elites. Blech!
Jay
@Kay:
The calendar is nonsense. It’s not evidence of any sort.
It’s being floated as a ploy to the rubes because QAnonHousePlans failed.
Bemused senior
Probably no sex scandals.
debbie
I want to hear the Evangelicals’ defense of Kavanaugh’s behavior in high school and in college.
hitchhiker
@MomSense:
OMG, I just got crazy angry all over again.
Kavanope was so filled with disgust and righteous indignation at the Very Idea of Bill and all those ladies … he authored the Starr report as a sort of soft porn saga with overtones of contempt so that we-the-people would be as mad as he was and demand Bill’s resignation.
And all the time he was the sort of snake whose own sexual assaults aren’t even important enough to make a mark on his psyche.
Adam L Silverman
I got nothing…
Mary G
@Marcopolo: Cannot see Harkey winning in any circumstance. She’s run for every office but dogcatcher and lost a lot of them. She and her husband ripped off a lot of old people. Mike Levin doesn’t ring my chimes, but he has shitload of money and has campaigned his ass off.
L85NJGT
@Calouste:
50/50 will do it. At that point, flipping to Schumer is the smart move. The fifty-first vote comes with an immense amount of leverage.
Marcopolo
@Calouste: I live in MO. Our Senate race is a toss-up. Each week so far in the group email I send out I’ve been telling my friends it is entirely possible McCaskill will lose. I know, in the StL area there are hundreds of energized folks working to avoid that (I am personally familiar with 50-100 of them) & I know that her campaign has said that they hit 1M doors knocked last week. So we will see. Other than McCaskill, I think I’d be most worried about Heitkamp & Donnelly. I think Gillum pulls Nelson over the line with him & I think Tester & Manchin have run great campaigns & have weak opponents. Then it is up to Beto (TX), Bredensen (sp) (TN), Rosen (NV), and Sinema (AZ) to score some wins. I’d take two of the four of them (or all of them if a couple of the D incumbents lose).
On the potentially positive side, Cohn (NYT pollster) notes that their ongoing House race polling has seemed to show movement towards the Ds over the past ten days. I sure hope what he is seeing is real, in the mean time it is head down and shoulder to the grindstone campaignwise.
Kay
@Jay:
I think it’s a mistake. There are vacations with his parents on there- that could be legit and persuasive – but that’s the only way it would be really useful- “I was not there at all during that 2 week period”.
But if they had that we wouldn’t be talking about this at all, so they must not have it.
Amir Khalid
@Marcopolo:
It seems pretty well established that they are in fact F Troop.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo: I just posted the poll. The polling looks good, but the proof will be what actually happens on election day.
FelonyGovt
Avenatti is definitely a publicity hound. However I find it perfectly plausible that other women with stories to tell about Kavanaugh would seek him out to represent them.
Kay
@psycholinguist:
I wish. But they’re never going to call him. If they do that they as well pull Special K right now. Judge is the kiss of death. The Democrats can just sit there and read from Judge’s book.
MagdaInBlack
@hitchhiker:
I have the feeling he rather enjoyed writing those questions, not unlike the folks who wrote their fantasies in Penthouse Forum.
Jay
@Kay:
As Ford has not testified to the year, date, house where the rape, ( yes, in Canada, sexual assault is sexual assault, no graduations) took place, the calender is weak bs from people who have been in the RWNJ bubble so long that they’ve used up all the air and are experiencing the early stages of brain death.
Kay
@FelonyGovt:
I bet it’s Judge’s former girlfriend. He confessed his crimes to her and she probably doesn’t like him- he’s horrible. She says he’s lying about the prep school… activities.
The Thin Black Duke
@Amir Khalid: Hey, that’s not fair. Those lovable clown on F Troop were funny on purpose.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
Some wise person once said, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. As we in my country were reminded a few months ago.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: A lean of 13 or higher should flip the Senate. Should, not will, but should. 14 or higher would be better. If it is over 16, then under all normal understanding, the Senate should flip. Again, should, not will.
Marcopolo
@Adam L Silverman: Of course. With all of the polling I am seeing (and the polling the NYT is doing has been really eye opening on a number of levels) I’d normally be comfortable with saying the Ds will flip the House. Might be one seat, might be 20 seats but signs look good. But after 11/9/2016 I just won’t allow myself to make any kind of assumptions. Like I said above, head down, eyes forward, work work work until polls close in MO on Nov. 6th. Honestly, that is the mindset of almost everyone I know who is campaign-active atm.
MagdaInBlack
@Adam L Silverman:
That makes me kinda sad for Russian men……
jl
Avenatti suggests he is representing a client who was involved in some way or another, and a different person than Ramirez.. So, I presume he is very serious. Whether he has solid evidence and it’s properly vetted is another matter. Not sure what kind of evidence would be conclusive or convincing.after all these years.
OTOH, now we have a situation where more women, apparently independently of each other, are coming forward with stories of abusive behavior, which strongly suggests something was very wrong.
“I represent a woman with credible information regarding Judge Kavanaugh and Mark Judge…”
https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1044006928416825344
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
Hardly a vigorous defence of Trump’s, er, manhood.
Kay
@Jay:
We;ll see but isn’t the calendar kind of a mickey mouse move from such a fancy lawyer? It’s the kind of thing disgruntled relatives pull out in probate proceedings and everyone sighs. Oh. Your handwritten record of ‘events’ – Okay doke. Let’s spend 5 hours on that shit.
The clownishness requires explanation. Why aren’t they better at this?
Peter H Desmond
@zhena gogolia: i’ve been here before and i am impressed with avenatti’s track record so far.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: Yep.
Doug R
@Immanentize:
Don’t they have 10,000 blogs to work through?
oclday
‘Trains’ or ‘pulling a train” are hardly limited to the elite. They were actually quite ‘popular’ at Midwest colleges. And we are supposed to believe that a teen age BOY who was stumbling drunk went home and made essentially diary entries? Baloney.
Mike in NC
May the Kavanaugh fiasco be the albatross around Fat Bastard’s fucking neck.
Adam L Silverman
@Marcopolo: No arguments here. I wouldn’t bet against McCaskill though. And Heitkamp got some help because her opponent went full Todd Akin last week over Dr. Blasey. Never go full Todd Akin.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Adam L Silverman:
Well, that’s tax rubles well spent.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@Marcopolo:
The F-team.
Kay
@oclday:
It;s just too easy to find something he did that wasn’t on the calendar. Once it’s selective it’s useless. It’s like James O’Keefe’s edited videos. It becomes fiction- has to be all or it’s nothing. Maybe they just want to run out the clock. “Maybe”. They;ve as much as announced they want to run out the clock.
Jay
@Kay:
As Adam explained in a thread several days ago, and LGM has pointed out, the pool of “conservative” lawyer’s not really much of a brain trust to start with. Many of the talent’s that make a “good lawyer”, have been self selected out of the ReThug gene pool.
What makes a “good” conservative lawyer is trying a case in public, on Faux News, infront of Judge Judy, not actually winning cases in court with real laws.
Living outside the bubble, has a deep liberal bias.
Adam L Silverman
@Peter H Desmond: Do you, perhaps, have a calendar entry that you could provide for verification?//
Kay
@oclday:
“Kids today” actually would have a record. They would have 8000 texts to one another tracking their every move all summer.
For better or worse.
NotMax
Am a pack rat but even so don’t have 30+ years old calendars tucked away. Not to go all conspiratorial but perhaps a kerning check is in order? Also too a paper and ink analysis?
Jay
@NotMax:
It’s not a real calender, from the year.
It’s a leaked PR stunt for the base given the failure of QAnonHousePlans.
It will never show up in the Senate.
Peter H Desmond
@Adam L Silverman:
unfortunately, when we switched from Julian to Gregorian, 18 1/2 days went missing.
El Caganer
So it’s gonna be Associate Justice Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III?
Jay
And Hamilton 68 shows that the subject of Special K is a top target of the Russian bots and trolls.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m an Avenatti agnostic, but this made me laugh
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: The best conservative lawyers are, like Judge Posner who is now retired from the 7th Circuit, neither originalists nor Federalist Society members. Here’s some of Posner’s takes on Scalia and originalism.
https://newrepublic.com/article/106441/scalia-garner-reading-the-law-textual-originalism
https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2016/03/04/point-person-qa-outspoken-judge-richard-posner-on-the-constitution-his-fellow-judges-and-antonin-scalia
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/03/opinion/justice-scalias-majoritarian-theocracy.html
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_breakfast_table/features/2016/supreme_court_breakfast_table_for_june_2016/law_school_professors_need_more_practical_experience.html?wpsrc=sh_all_mob_tw_top
dww44
@Marcopolo: Local tv shows way more Kemp Ads than Abrams ads, and I don’t think her ads, which are largely tame ones, are very effective. Kemp’s most recent ad is an effective one by his wife giving a wholly positive view of her husband that has not been evidenced by his past behavior.
. And, sadly, he’s in charge of the election process in this state and I know of two instances of friends and family where their registrations have been held up in the SOS office in Atlanta. I fear that the election results could well be tainted, but there will be no way to confirm the vote as there is no paper trail of the Diebold voting machines.
Adam L Silverman
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Somebody get Charles “I’m not Chuck C.” Johnson on line 1, STAT!!!!!!//
Adam L Silverman
@Peter H Desmond: Sure, sure.
catclub
@El Caganer: Why not Michael Cohen? he has been vetted by Robert Mueller.
Marcopolo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think that should read stuck in a story with Avenatti written by Ronan Farrow & Jane Mayer
And I am to bed. At this point, despite my great anticipation of seeing K Harris interrogating BK, I don’t think that will now come to pass. Alas.
catclub
@Adam L Silverman:
and how old was said ‘woman’?
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
In this timeline of wingnuttery, “conservative” ain’t the same word it used to be.
Marcopolo
@Marcopolo: Well, that could have used the edit button…
NotMax
First Monday in October is Oct.1 this year. Odds on there being a vacant chair when the court convenes on the move.
Mary G
Somebody’s out of his league:
patroclus
@Adam L Silverman: Posner is not really much of a conservative. He clerked for Brennan and was regarded as comfortably liberal for years. But then, at Stanford and the U of C, he acquired a “conservative” reputation for his focus on antitrust theory and the field of law and economics, with a classically liberal laissez faire orientation and because of his friendship and collaboration with theorists like Gary Becker. For a couple of decades or so, he maintained this reputation and got nominated by Reagan during this period, but on the bench, he was very independent. He is/was sympathetic to women’s liberty, was an early advocate of gay rights, criticized vehemently the absurd reasoning of Bush v. Gore, is anti-torture and much more. “:Conservatives” largely disowned him 2 decades or so ago because of his iconoclastic tendencies. His “conservative” reputation in largely historical. I’ve met him and talked with him and “conservative” is nowhere near the word I would ever use to describe him. He would have been an excellent Associate Justice, in my view – much like Brennan, his mentor.
FlipYrWhig
@dww44: Lots of people like tame, though. I think with Trump in the big seat (so to speak) there’s a corresponding hunger for decency.
JCJ
@Adam L Silverman:
Ed Grimsley.
Mary G
She’s on a roll:
Mike J
I’m a couple of years younger than judge K, and if you asked me, “was that party you went to where you drank a lot of Canadian whiskey and first smoked pot in September or October, and was it in ’82 or ’83?” [1] I don’t know if I could narrow it down. Even without consulting a calendar I could tell you I didn’t rape anybody.
[1] The next morning my dad asked, “you were pretty sick when you came home last night. Something you ate? Or maybe drank?”
SFAW
@Amir Khalid:
And a Traitorous Turtle responded “Only if the Republican wins.”
MobiusKlein
@Mike J: trust dad to know a hangover when he sees it.
Jay
@Mike J:
It’s Rye Whiskey, not Canadian Whiskey, unless it Canada Club.
Mike J
@Jay: It could be both or either. I wasn’t a connoisseur at the time. Still absolutely certain about the not raping though.
afanasia
@moonbat: It’s not uncommon.
trollhattan
@zhena gogolia:
Exactamundo. And it’s lunchtime in St. Petersburg. Those weekend hangovers won’t nurse themselves.
gwangung
@Mary G: Might have been true a couple decades ago, Senator, but it’s 2018….
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jay
@Mike J:
Yup, #MeToo
trollhattan
@NotMax:
Does Mike Pence have the tiebreaker if the SCOTUS has a 4-4 tie? Because that would be cool.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Err mah gurrd, that’s frightening.
Rafael in plaid is such a natural, don’t you think?
sukabi
@Miss Bianca: wait till he photographs his “trophy room” to prove that party didn’t happen cuz he didn’t get any Polaroid or panties.
Vhh
@Calouste: Last I heard, Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to charges involving the Stormy Daniels hush money.
Mary G
Avenatti talked to Politico tonight:
Mary G
Achrachno
@Kay: Has he got calendars for every year back then, or just the most convenient one? Has he got 35 years worth? If not, when did he start and stop his calendar collecting hobby? Did his handwriting evolve over the years, or does 1983 look about like 2018? Can the calendars be accurately and reliably dated?
smike
@trollhattan:
Different branches of government there, but I wouldn’t put it past them to try.
Bill Arnold
@Mary G:
(Re @JRubinBlogger). Yes, she is. Enjoying the passion and the delight in the fight.
[Re Jennifer Rubin being a conservative (many previous threads), small-c conservatism is (IMO) essentially a form of risk management. This is OK, IMO. Usually boring (and sometimes boring is good), often wrong, but OK.]
Unrelated, re this:
about a down payment 2.5X his net worth at the time, when was the most recent FBI(?) background check, and would it have looked hard at his financials?
smike
@smike:
Since I can’t edit that statement, I realize that the executive and legislative branches are different, as well, but my thought was that the judicial branch must be independent. I think I’ll shut up now.
Adam L Silverman
@catclub: I do not know.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Very true.
Adam L Silverman
@patroclus: I have always felt he would have made an excellent justice on the Supreme Court.
As for the rest of it, I will defer to your description.
James E Powell
Several people in this thread have expressed negatives views of Michael Avenatti or suggested that we shouldn’t believe his claims.
What is the source of this? I haven’t followed him or the Stormy Daniels thing very closely. Is Avenatti a bad person? Unreliable?
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: Not so much.
Achrachno
@Jay: Yes, that’s my guess. Fake “evidence” — if that is submitted somewhere as real evidence someone could get prosecuted.
Uncle Cosmo
@trollhattan: Dead men may not wear plaid, but dead men running apparently do.
West of the Rockies
@Bill Arnold:
BK went to a prep school, so likely dear mumsy or father had cash. Did they gift their darling little man with house money?
(Yeah, he definitely didn’t grow up a privileged, spoiled brat….//)
Mart
@Amir Khalid: A wolf in sheep’s clothing. I love what he is doing, but pray he does not run for President. Way too smart and vindictive to be given the keys to the country. Only thing we have with Trump is he is a mental genus authoriarian, where Avanetti is a bright one.
Wapiti
@West of the Rockies: Wife’s family might have likewise had money, but maybe not manly to admit that’s where it came from. Not sure if they file joint returns, so maybe he didn’t have to declare a gift.
Steeplejack (phone)
West of the Rockies
@James E Powell:
Some of the negative comments perhaps have come from trolls. Several regulars noted that the Down With Avenatti comments are (mostly) from brand new posters tonight.
West of the Rockies
@Wapiti:
Nonetheless, the whole affair is peculiar… damn peculiar.
Mnemosyne
@James E Powell:
Avenatti is an unscrupulous showboater with delusions of grandeur, but I think he’s smart enough to know not to put forth a fraudulent claim. We shall see.
Mandalay
@James E Powell:
No to both questions. But I am terrified that he will run as a vanity candidate in 2020 (and might even win).
I find him a phony in the same way that I find Gavin Newsom and Cory Booker to be phonies – I just can’t shake the feeling that all three of them are show ponies. But maybe that says more about me than them.
Jay
@James E Powell:
Russian trolls and ‘Merkin deplorables.
Jay
@Mandalay:
Personally, given his age, Avenetti knows how to troll the ReThugs par excellence.
He won’t be a cantidate.
?BillinGlendaleCA
OT: A segment of the 134 freeway from Glendale to Pasadena is getting a new name: President Barack Obama Freeway.
Chetan Murthy
@?BillinGlendaleCA: HOT DAMN! HOT DAMN!
West of the Rockies
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I hope the tributes continue: an airport, a civic center in a glittering city… Should drive the wingnut bonkers.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@West of the Rockies: It’s a portion of the 134 that goes though Eagle Rock where President Obama spent his first 2 years of college.
Chetan Murthy
@West of the Rockies: What’s gonna get named for Our First Lady ? I mean, first named for her, obvs.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
That photo is proof thatTed Cruz was born looking 60 years old.
joel hanes
@Ella in New Mexico:
If you’re on Windows box, hold [CTL] and hit the + key a few times
On a Mac, substitute “Command” for [CTL]
On a portable device, I got nothin.
Martin
@James E Powell:
Avenatti is a showboater, and that’s not usually a great quality in lawyers. If the case doesn’t pan out, you look like a fucking idiot, as does everyone who put their money behind you.
That said, he’s not been wrong so far, and I’m inclined to tolerate him because he plays the game given the GOPs rules. They want to out-yell and holier than thou anyone they disagree with, and he goes straight at them. I’ll note that we saw a similar tone from Harris and Booker and Leahy. But mostly Avernatti drives Trump absolutely bonkers because he’s not taking the reserved lawyerly route, instead he’s taking the reality tv route.
I’m still skeptical, but I’m not about to say that he’s wrong, either. I’m just gonna have to see a bit more here. Extraordinary claims, and all that.
J R in WV
@moonbat:
ONLY time I ever heard about guys pulling “trains” on girls, the guys were bikers, and I heard about it from a wanna be biker in a welding class I was taking around 1978. Seemed like pretty rowdy parties, lots of liquor, the girls were biker chicks, not Catholic Private School girls being taken advantage of. Still not my thing. won’t be trying understand Yale Frat guys having a rape club.
Would turn them in with film at 11 if I had been there to do that. Maybe there’s enough evidence around to put most of those guys away… now that it’s all going to see more of the light of day than any of those frat boys expected when they were clubhouse raping younger underclass women. School could get sued for not caring for the yojng women properly, too.
All too despicable for me to put any energy into understanding these despicable little monsters.
joel hanes
@Ella in New Mexico:
Presbyopia sucks.
This is why I have a 27″ monitor.
and have jacked all the font sizes up 2 or 3 or 4 notches.
Jay
Michelle Obama Refugee Crisis Center
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin:
Welcome to California, any high profile lawyer is a showboater. They love to see and hear themselves on the TV box.
Jay
Michelle Obama ICE Rape Councilling Center.
Patricia Kayden
I hope McConnell doesn’t try to pull a fast one by holding a vote on Kavanaugh today as rumored. He’s such a desperate jerk that I can see that happening as the cards come crashing down.
Jay
Please,
All sexual/bullying survivors, take care of yourselves in these times,
And know we love you and support you, public or private.
JoyceH
@Martin:
Avenatti may be a showboat, heck, certainly he is. But he’s also a very, very clever man. I remember back when the news was All Stormy All The Time, and you could find Avenatti on the political shows every night of the week. And one thing I noticed then – no matter what the topic du jour might be, Avenatti always managed to work in a mention of his client, and how Very Brave she was being, and how Proud of her he was. I thought then, man, if I was a woman with a long held secret about a powerful man, and if I kept silent out of fear and worry that nobody would believe me, I’d be sitting there thinking, “I’ll call that nice Michael Avenatti, HE’LL believe me! He’ll understand!”
And when your ultimate goal is the bringing down of the Trump presidency, as I think Avenatti’s ultimate goal is, that’s a very useful belief to be raising in the minds of exactly the right people.
Jay
@JoyceH:
Yup, double yup!
sukabi
@Patricia Kayden: don’t think he can do that till it’s out of committee, and Grassley has just been handed a shit sandwich by Avenatti. You know if Avenatti doesn’t think the women are going to get a fair shake testifying before the committee there will be a very long press conference followed by appearances / interviews with them on every network. News shows love Avenatti, he’s good for their ratings. These will happen BEFORE the Senate can take a vote…may even happen prior to Prof. Ford’s testimony before the committee if it looks like Grassley is going to continue to be an ass.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Patricia Kayden: The turtle won’t do it because he doesn’t have the votes. A good deal of his caucus will balk if he tries for a floor vote without the committee voting first.
Ladyraxterinok
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I don’t believe GOP senators would challenge Turtle.
Bruce K
@Rommie: Historically, for 2st-century Republicans, Plan B has been “make sure Plan A works”. Which means that when Plan A augers in, it takes Plan B along with it, so they’re already in need of a Plan C.
Me, I’m rooting for Plan M. Mitch McConnell dies in Plan M.
Vhh
@AThornton: I would be careful there. 2-3 cases are bad enough, but still a long way from 100.
PST
@J R in WV:
First time I ever heard about guys pulling “trains” was as a freshman at Harvard in the 70s from a new roommate who attended a private prep school in the South.
Bobby Thomson
@Mary G: as Cornyn knows, sworn testimony is evidence.
oclday
@PST:
The first time I heard about pulling a train was regarding a high school friend (female) at a small Midwestern college in the mid 70’s. Face it, just because you haven’t heard the term doesn’t mean it wasn’t a ubiquitous disgusting occurrence.
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes: All font sizes matter!!!