South Korea’s President Moon Jae In met yesterday with North Korea’s President Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital. They participated in a parade and discussed the future of the Korean Peninsula.
It’s best to rely on the official English translation of their joint statement, rather than statements for the news media or by third parties. The Korean version is more reliable, but I don’t understand Korean. Here’s the part about North Korea’s nuclear program.
- The two sides shared the view that the Korean Peninsula must be turned into a land of peace free from nuclear weapons and nuclear threats, and that substantial progress toward this end must be made in a prompt manner.
- First, the North will permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch platform under the observation of experts from relevant countries.
- The North expressed its willingness to continue to take additional measures, such as the permanent dismantlement of the nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon, as the United States takes corresponding measures in accordance with the spirit of the June 12 US-DPRK Joint Statement.
- The two sides agreed to cooperate closely in the process of pursuing complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The bottom line is that much more negotiation that includes the United States is necessary. Specifically,
the North will permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch platform – This is a positive step, but North Korea has developed mobile launchers for its missiles, including the intercontinental missiles that can reach the United States. Building a new test site would not be difficult.
under the observation of experts from relevant countries – Again, a positive step to include experts. North Korea explicitly excluded experts from observing the tunnel closures at its nuclear test site. But “experts” and “relevant countries” remain undefined. Defining them will require more negotiation.
The North expressed its willingness to continue to take additional measures – Willingness is not action, which is fine as long as we understand that.
as the United States takes corresponding measures – The North has insisted on an action-for-action program in which they take a step, and then the United States takes a step. This is not unusual in building confidence between adversarial nations. So far, the United States has insisted on large measures from the North with no promise of specific action from the United States. Look for statements from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on this subject. If he insists on complete denuclearization or a list of North Korea’s nuclear facilities, things are going nowhere. What constitute “corresponding measures” will require more negotiation.
the permanent dismantlement of the nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon – North Korea has promised this before. Since it depends on the United States taking “corresponding measures,” it’s unlikely to happen any time soon. The common spelling in the United States is Yongbyon. It’s the obvious central nuclear facility for North Korea. Are there others? We don’t know.
in accordance with the spirit of the June 12 US-DPRK Joint Statement – Donald Trump talks about a handshake and personal understandings. North Korea talks about the Joint Statement. The DPRK is doing what is normally done in diplomacy. Secret personal agreements are no part of it.
The two sides agreed to cooperate closely in the process of pursuing complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula – “Complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” is a standard formula describing an ideal situation in the far future. It’s good to have this kind of long-term goal stated. So far, the United States has taken that phrase to mean unlateral disarmament by North Korea. Again, look for Secretary Pompeo’s statement on this.
Trump’s statements so far have been relatively moderate. Moon is playing a skillful game to try to involve Trump, which will be necessary as talks proceed. Kim is playing a skillful game to keep his nuclear weapons and his power.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner.
Amir Khalid
Has anyone dared tell Kim Jong-un how weird his hair looks?
I am worried that Donald will get upset that he is not the star of this show, even though there is no reason for that, and try to muscle his way onstage.
kindness
How many generations is it going to take to re-unify the Korean peninsula? Took till the 80’s to re-unify Germany and that only happened because the USSR was in a really bad way. How to mollify the ruling powers (clans/individuals) of the north to unify with the south? I don’t know. It’s time though.
JPL
@Amir Khalid: When Trump meets with dictators, he submits the them.
JPL
@JPL: edit
When Trump meets with dictators, he submits to them.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
Yet another thing he has in common with Trump. Kim’s is fixable.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks Cheryl, I was curious what your thoughts were.
catclub
But that is not what North Korea understands it to mean! No nuclear armed ships in Korean Ports. No nuclear armed forces or missiles
for any parties.
Cheryl Rofer
@Major Major Major Major: I have more thoughts, but less time, so I focused on the nuclear stuff.
John M. Burt
@kindness: And then there is Yanbian, the Korean-majority prefecture in Manchuria, or as I like to think of it, West Korea . . . .
John M. Burt
@catclub: And since the U.S. armed forces refuse to confirm or deny whether any given ship or plane is carrying nuclear weapons, that could easily mean no U.S. warcraft of any kind within Korea waters or airspace.
TenguPhule
So things are going nowhere and War it is then.
TenguPhule
@kindness:
Never. Because its not gonna happen. South Korea can’t handle the influx of North Korean refugees. And that’s what they’d be, refugees.
TenguPhule
The spirit of which happened to be “hold Donald Trump upside down and shake him for spare change.”
Spanky
Or as I like to call it, the Ins and Uns of Korean negotiations.
I’m showing myself out now….
Carol
Perfect ending: Moon Jae and Kim share the Nobel Peace Prize.
catclub
@John M. Burt:
Exactly. Isn’t that what happened with New Zealand?
The Pale Scot
@kindness:
Absence doesn’t lead to the heart growing fonder. Germany had a strong government and economy, a rare thing today. The long disputes have led to new generations who aren’t as invested in old claims as their elders are. In Korea and Ireland, there’s a growing feeling that unification isn’t a need or a requirement. In Korea the younger generation sees unification with the north as a danger to their economy, they don’t have memories of relatives left on the other side. NI is a basket case, IRL knows they can’t take on the billions in support the UK sends it every year, and there is no place for a political party like the DUP. The radicals insisting on unification are getting fewer, unfortunately the ones left are more radical. What exactly would this cost us? That is what’s being asked in those countries
Amir Khalid
Is Trump sufficiently in the loop to understand what North and South Korea are agreeing to? Or is it naive even to ask?
Cheryl Rofer
@Amir Khalid: I think none of us can really figure out what Trump understands and what he doesn’t. I went to a talk by Sig Hecker earlier in the week and asked him why the administration is making such boneheaded demands of North Korea, like expecting them to send us five of their nukes or a list of their facilities, which, at this point, North Korea will take as a request for targeting information. Sig very graciously and skillfully avoided any mindreading.
On the one hand, it makes sense to try to figure out what Trump and his people are thinking. On the other, it can make you crazy.
TenguPhule
@Amir Khalid:
Yes.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
Assume Trump is a fucking moron with no capacity for learning and everything makes sense.
VOR
@John M. Burt: “nuclear threats” probably also means no US nuclear weapons at bases within striking distance of North Korea, such as Guam. Which is actually a US Territory and hence part of the US so I cannot see how any US administration would agree to such a limit.
catclub
Kevin Drum :
So is trump a version 1.0?
TenguPhule
@catclub:
Not unless hearts is the new slang for pants.
TenguPhule
@VOR:
Have you seen Donald Trump?
catclub
@The Pale Scot:
Interesting.
Looking at the Brexit negotiation, where no border controls between NI and IRL seems to be the sticking point, the UK has definitely not considered setting NI adrift with IRL – it is more like that is unpossible in the present world. Not even considered.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
OT:
This came up last night on a thread:
If 15 states are going to contain 70% of the population in the next 20 years, guaranteeing empty red states a majority in the Senate and the EC, then what’s the point of any of this? I’d go on to say I should come up with an exit strategy, but where would I flee to? Everywhere practically is going to shit. I don’t want to be around in 20+ years, as much as I hate to say that, if that’s the future I have to look forward to
TenguPhule
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
You always have to try the peaceful option before slaughtering your enemies to solve the problem the simple way.
catclub
Won’t the North Koreans ask for a complete list of US nuclear assets in the region? THEN things are going nowhere. I am surprised the North Koreans have not played up this aspect more.
This reminds me of the quiet Cuban missile crisis agreement that was never mentioned to teh US public – we removed missiles from Turkey.
It also reminds me of the Iran versus Israel nuclear disarmament discussions. It is just taken as a given that Israel has arms which it will never give up.
Now the US nuclear assets in the Korean region will not be discussed.
TenguPhule
@catclub:
North Korea is following the time honored tactic of not interrupting when the enemy is making a mistake.
Gin & Tonic
@Cheryl Rofer:
I see reporting that in a meeting with Spain’s FM, Trump suggested that Europe could solve its migrant problem by building a wall across the Sahara. So I’d submit that the set of “what Trump understands” is likely congruent with the null set.
The Pale Scot
@catclub: The DUP, Ian Paisley’s party, supports the Tories and that is what keeps them in power. The DUP are like our fundamentalist nut jobs. It’s appalling that the USA, UK and Israel are all in a position where religious irrationalists are calling the shots. The has been “if only we could dump NI onto the Republic’s lap” whispers in the UK governments for 20 years. The best part is that NI’s only exports are agricultural products to the EU, and the DUP is willing to give that up.
TenguPhule
@Gin & Tonic:
Take away Trump’s money and his minders and he’ll be a Darwin Award within a day.
shell
Are you kidding? Set your egg-timer for Cheeto-Lay trying to take reedit for this.
Mary G
In the last Olympics – Korean women’s hockey was a unified team from both North and South Korea, and if I’m remembering right, they had trouble communicating because the two versions of the Korean language used had grown so far apart. Reunification wouldn’t be easy.
I’m surprised KJU let Moon hold the bigger folder with the agreements – Twitler would never stand for that.
And these demands that America do something first – we already gave him the summit and cancelled the war games. It’s Un’s turn, and I can’t imagine he will do anything at all.
The Pale Scot
Add: And why should the DUP, they subsist on splitting UK subsidies with Sinn Fein, anyone not a part of those politics are shit out of luck. The table bangers are calling the shots, and they seem to desire a hard Brexit
Cheryl Rofer
@catclub: The best way to go forward is small steps at a time. A list of North Korea’s nuclear facilities will be needed at some point, but they need to have the confidence that the US won’t use it as a target list.
North Korea has taken some token, easily reversed moves: collapsing the tunnel entrances at the nuclear test site, partial disassembly of a missile test site, pausing their missile and nuke tests. They now say they will disassemble another missile test site and allow experts in to verify it as a next step.
The US has paused some of their military exercises with South Korea. But the ball is now in our court, and we need to do something more to reciprocate. I don’t see exactly equal moves, although it might not be a bad idea to be more generous. One thing that the North Koreans hate is the bomber flights over South Korea from Guam – looks too much like it could be an attack. So maybe advance notice of such flights? Limit them to scheduled times?
And then both sides need to work up to more. Some disablement of facilities at Yongbyon. More communication about ROK-US military exercises, or mothball them. More presence of inspectors at the sites we know of in North Korea. It’s going to be at least a couple of years until it makes any sense to ask for a list of North Korean nuclear sites.
OzarkHillbilly
OT: Founder Of 3D-Printed Gun Company Charged With Sexual Assault Of Child
TenguPhule
Trump says alleged assault by Kavanaugh is ‘very hard for me to imagine’
O M F G.
Out of can’t evens. Somebody break open a new crate.
Spanky
@catclub:
Allow me to introduce the best negotiator ever, Donald Trump.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
Donald Trump will do exactly what he did when the vendors insisted it was time to pay them for their work.
Spanky
@TenguPhule:
Ineligible. He’s already spawned.
catclub
@The Pale Scot:
I find this fascinating. Wouldn’t a united Ireland be a relative poor nation in the EU and get substantial subsidies that way? Or maybe not nearly as much as NI is getting from the UK.
(The second fasinating part is that Sinn Fein is quietly going along (?) with the DUP’s loud objections. Is that correct?)
catclub
@Spanky: well, there is that. Tell him not to talk about them, and next thing you know…
catclub
@TenguPhule: unfortunately, it doesn’t cost TRump a cent to do something stupid with the US forces in Korea.
So the cases are not really similar.
TenguPhule
@catclub:
They don’t participate in the political process because they refuse to swear loyalty to the British royal family that’s required as part of it.
Villago Delenda Est
“Denuclearization” has different meanings for the two (NK and US) parties:
US: No NK nukes. Our nukes are swell!
NK: No US troops. Our troops are swell!
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer: Thank you so much for breaking this down!
A question:
Isn’t there already a defined group of experts who know how to monitor and evaluate nuclear disarmament efforts?
North Korea has used this formulation before. But I understand that the US does not have any nukes actually in North Korea, but obviously can move a range of weapons into the area on short notice. I wonder what this statement means to North Korea (or to South Korea, for that matter).
Also, I note that while North Korea often speaks well of Trump, they have no problems slapping Pompeo around. It will be very interesting to see what he proposes and how North Korea reacts.
Still, this is very interesting. Also interesting in that South Korea seems fully committed to making the best of these meetings. And I don’t think we have heard anything negative from China.
The Pale Scot
@catclub:
There are Orangemen in Scotland, they have marches in there. Nobody throws rocks at them, they are just ignored with an admonishment to keep it civil, they happen in England and oversees also. I thought I included that there are elements of the UK government that have been whispering about how to go about dropping NI. for decades. The gov and a good portion of the population would happily agree to it. But the UK has a “we’re still an Empire” population too. Scottish independence would start bubbling, the society just isn’t cohesive enough.
I never thought to google the Orange Walk wikipedia, it’s interesting.
The Pale Scot
@TenguPhule:
Donate to the League of the South?
VOR
@Gin & Tonic:
Sometimes I wonder if Trump thinks the US-Mexico border wall is already in place. After all, he has claimed construction is underway so perhaps he has convinced himself that problem is solved. Besides being the best negotiator, he is the greatest builder too.
Did you see Trump told hurricane survivors to “have a nice day”? I just can’t…
VOR
@VOR: Sorry, it was “Have a good time”.
Villago Delenda Est
@VOR: This is not the first time he’s said this to people who have been traumatized by a natural disaster. He’s an uncaring cad, a Douglas C. Niedermeyer sort of leader.
Cheryl Rofer
@Brachiator:
Yes, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But every word counts in these statements, pace Donald Trump and his minions. North Korea has had IAEA inspectors there before, under the Agreed Framework negotiated by the Clinton administration. So they know who they are, and there must be a reason they didn’t name them. That’s why I said negotiation will be needed.
So do we all, except for the Trumpies.
They are trying to divide him from his advisors. They really went after Bolton a few statements back.
Cheryl Rofer
I see Jeffrey Lewis has weighed in with a Twitter thread. Directly to Brachiator’s question.
Origuy
@John M. Burt: There are also about a half million ethnic Koreans in the former Soviet Union countries, called the Koryo-saram.