Friday Morning Open Thread: ‘Even the folks who won don’t seem happy’

Especially for beloved commentor and Ohioan Kay:

Former president Barack Obama ridiculed Republicans at an Ohio rally Thursday evening, mocking members of the party for being “still mad” even though they control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

Obama made the remarks during a fiery speech for Democratic governor nominee Richard Cordray, who was previously his Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director.

“Even the folks who won don’t seem happy. Have you noticed that?” Obama told the Cleveland crowd, decrying the country’s “broken” politics. Republicans won the presidency, House and Senate, he said, but “they’re still mad, which is interesting.”

He went on to criticize the “forces of retrenchment and backlash and anger” as well as “some media outlets that like to do the fanning,” without naming any names…

In Ohio, Obama hit some of the same themes as he did in his Friday speech in Illinois, blasting Republicans for speaking out against Trump’s actions at times but not backing their words up with action.

“You will read quotes from Republicans saying, ‘Wow, this is messed up,’” Obama said. “Well, why aren’t you doing something about it? ‘Well, we can’t, because we really like these tax cuts for the wealthy. … So we’ll put up with crazy.’”…

And he urged the crowd to go to the polls rather than allow the voices of “demagogues” and fear-mongers to fill the void.

“That is an old playbook. It’s as old as time,” Obama said, adding: “Here’s the thing, in a healthy democracy, that playbook doesn’t work.”

***********

News update on last night’s Merrimack Valley natural gas explosions: So far, there isn’t much new to report, per CBS local:

• Sections of South Lawrence, Andover and North Andover impacted
• The issue is related to a high pressure gas main, possibly over-pressurized
• An estimated 8,000 gas meters in that region, served by Columbia Gas, were affected; multi-unit homes have multiple gas meters
• All residents of South Lawrence, regardless of utility provider, were asked to evacuate
• Andover residents south of Rt. 28 and Salem Street were allowed to return home early Friday…
• An 18-year-old man has died. At least 25 people injured
• 60-80 fires and 3 explosions, according to MEMA…

Not great news, especially for the family of that young man, but at least we can still assume it was human error, not human evil. If you look at a map of the affected region, you’ll see it’s a very built-up area. If you know anything about its history: Lawrence is a very poor, immigrant-intensive city, while Andover and North Andover are middle-to-upper-middle-income ‘bedroom suburbs’ for the techies and other professionals who work in Lawrence and the surrounding communities. None of the known Massholes among our BJ commentariat seem to have been affected (I’m some twenty minutes south of the site, and our natgas provider is *not* the one in Merrimack Valley, thank Murphy the Trickster God).
***********

Finally, in advance of this morning’s tweet dump…

148 replies
  1. 1
    NotMax says:

    They’re only happy when showering misery on the other.

    Sick and perverse, the twin godllngs standing aside Mammon in their pantheon.

    ReplyReply
  2. 2
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Blech. The cancer that infects DC appears to have metastasized as far north as Boston and south to the Carolinas.

    ReplyReply
  3. 3
    rikyrah says:

    Good Morning, Everyone 😐😐😐

    ReplyReply
  4. 4
    Raven says:

    We got good news on our roof replacement settlement. Our contractor felt the amount was to low for him to to the jobs properly because they left off several important things. We submitted it to USAA and they agreed to up the amount by nearly $2k! I’m not happy about @3k in deductibles but that is my fault.

    ReplyReply
  5. 5
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Raven: Good news indeed.

    I’m not happy about @3k in deductibles but that is my fault.

    Hindsight is 20/20.

    ReplyReply
  6. 6
    raven says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: How I managed to choose $1k on the rental and $2k on our house I’ll never know but I’m going to use the $ they sent for the damage to the cars along with the proceeds from selling the Lexus to cover it. I know I’m fortunate either way.

    ReplyReply
  7. 7
    different-church-lady says:

    Yeah: stop wishing he wouldn’t tweet, and start wishing he wasn’t president.

    @NotMax:

    They’re only happy when showering misery on the other.

    …and themselves too. For some people, anger and conflict are the only emotions they have, so they have to substitute for happiness.

    ReplyReply
  8. 8
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    300K people without power in NC now.

    ReplyReply
  9. 9
  10. 10
    raven says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt: I have a friend in New Bern who stayed. Her pictures from yesterday we awful and it’s going to get nothing but worse.

    ReplyReply
  11. 11
    MagdaInBlack says:

    Lets be honest, it would be so much easier to dismantle the country and loot the treasury, if the rabble (thats us) would just sit down and stfu.

    ReplyReply
  12. 12
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    The mayor of Uranus, Misery is upset with the name of the new Examiner news weekly:

    “No. I’m sorry. But the innuendo of that title puts my city up for public ridicule, and I will not be a part of it,” Hardman was quoted as saying.

    So, the Uranus Examiner has gotten his panties in a bunch but he’s perfectly OK with the Uranus Fudge Factory, the “competitive axe-throwing facility called the Axehole” and has a tourism website that states “there’s a lot to do in and around Uranus”.

    In 2017 the St Louis Post-Dispatch described Uranus as “a strip mall gone delightfully, disgustingly wrong – or right”.

    Personally, I think the mayor is just an asshole.

    ReplyReply
  13. 13
    Chyron HR says:

    “Here’s the thing, in a healthy democracy, that playbook doesn’t work.”

    Well, that’s very nice, sir, but this is America.

    ReplyReply
  14. 14
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah: Good morning.

    ReplyReply
  15. 15
    Immanentize says:

    @Raven:
    That is good news. A new roof is a 20 year positive.

    ReplyReply
  16. 16
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    New York primary:

    2014 turnout: 597,284

    2018 turnout: 1,487,137 (not all votes have been counted)

    turnout close to tripling.

    ReplyReply
  17. 17
    Kay says:

    Thanks AL! I didn’t go- I had to work and I wouldn’t have gotten in anyway.

    Republican Mike DeWine is at 39 percent and Democrat Richard Cordray is at 38 percent in the poll with 23 percent undecided.

    This poll doesn’t mean anything with all these undecided but I do think it’s tied, which is bad for DeWine. He’s been around forever and everyone in the state knows him and Trump carried this state easily.

    There’s grumbling from Democrats (I could literally write that every day, for every situation) because Cordray isn’t exciting enough and doesn’t attack enough but Cordray isn;t that kind of pol and I don’t think he should pretend he is. He’s running as himself. I DO think he’s insanely competitive though, so no one should kid themselves about that. He’s a high-achieving person and he intends to win. He’s just not a screamer or a bomb thrower.

    ReplyReply
  18. 18
    Baud says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: Interesting. Usually, with such a large increase, the challenger would win or at least come close.

    ReplyReply
  19. 19
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Chyron HR: I was thinking the same thing. We’ll see how it shakes out. There’s still a shitload of apathy and learned helplessness out there. If Trump and his outrageous antics can’t crack it, I don’t know what will.

    ReplyReply
  20. 20
    Baud says:

    @Kay:

    I pretty tired of Dems who keep wanting politicians to fit into a predetermined archetype.

    ReplyReply
  21. 21
    Immanentize says:

    @Baud: Yes, especially when that archetype relates only to campaigning and not to governing.

    ReplyReply
  22. 22
    Kay says:

    The Trump people here aren’t happy. I don’t mean in a broad sense, nationally, I mean the actual people in this town who were his (loud) supporters. They’re still fucking miserable. Now instead of hating Obama they hate all the people who don’t love Trump so they’ve increased the universe of people they’re mad at – now it includes not just high-profile pols but huge groups of ordinary fellow citizens :)

    ReplyReply
  23. 23
    Baud says:

    @Immanentize: Right. Or spending time worrying about the primary winner’s personality, which the candidate shouldn’t try to change.

    ReplyReply
  24. 24
    Baud says:

    @Kay: The feeling is mutual.

    ReplyReply
  25. 25
    Kay says:

    @Baud:

    I’m not easily intimidated and I found Cordray a little intimidating when I encountered him as an AG. He’s really smart and really aggressive. He’s effective. He’s just not loud and abrasive. They can’t become completely different people in these campaigns. It doesn’t work anyway. If they don’t vote for him when he’s acting authentically they’ll be less likely to vote for him if he’s putting on an act.

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  26. 26
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: Almost all of the renegade “Independent Democrats” that caucused with the Republicans to kiss Cuomo’s ass got turfed last night, I think six of eight or something like that. I bet they feel real smart now – asshole uses them, kicks them to the curb this spring, coasts to re-election while they all get their walking papers.

    ReplyReply
  27. 27
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Kay: Hate, it’s not just for breakfast anymore.

    ReplyReply
  28. 28
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    @raven: New Bern is really not looking good right now and High Tide is due any time soon.

    ReplyReply
  29. 29
    Schlemazel says:

    @Immanentize:
    We want our Trump too!
    A significant percentage of people want a candidate that screams and flaps their arms in a way ‘inspires’ them. Others of us are looking for good government but we need that other group to vote our way to get it.

    ReplyReply
  30. 30
    Quinerly says:

    @raven: New Bern looks to be destroyed. I grew up 32 miles from New Bern (small town of Grifton in Pitt County). Grifton still has power. Trying to find out about friends in Havelock (Cherry Point Marine Air Station) and Newport. New Bern being covered on the Weather Channel. Swift Creek at New Bern at 8ft.

    ReplyReply
  31. 31
    Kay says:

    @Baud:

    IMO, Ohio Democrats believe, all evidence to the contrary, that Ohio is a “blue” state and all of these Republican wins over the years are flukes due to poor management of campaigns. It’s not true. It’s sometimes blue but that’s the deviation from the norm, not the norm. The steady state is reddish. When people say “swing state” they don’t mean “exactly half the time”.

    ReplyReply
  32. 32
    Baud says:

    @Kay: Makes sense. Indiana didn’t become a blue state simply because they went for Obama in 2008.

    ReplyReply
  33. 33
    Baud says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: They thought they were preserving their privilege when the voted for Trump and now they understand they have only hastened their loss of status. Does Wilmer even talk about them anymore?

    ReplyReply
  34. 34
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    The gap [in the generic ballot] has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in July — and it is largely because of voters in the Midwest. They have swung 13 points in Democrats’ direction since July. That Midwestern shift is consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed President Trump’s support there starting to erode.

    “Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. “The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring.”

    Trump has waged trade wars with several countries, aiming to renegotiate deals and has instituted tariffs on imports that have been met with retaliatory tariffs on exports.
    (link)

    When Wilmer runs next year he needs to be smashed in Iowa for his pro-trade war positions.

    ReplyReply
  35. 35
    Kay says:

    @Baud:

    So every year we get people who are newer at this (which is great- they’re welcome) but they show me my House district and they say “the Democrat is off by 5!” meaning “this should be easy” but that’s the thing. That last 5 is so hard. That’s what “swing state” really means here, in practice. An incredibly stubborn 5 point advantage for R’s. It’s “only” 5! It’s not 20! But the last 5 is like pulling teeth.

    ReplyReply
  36. 36
    Baud says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: I thought the Midwest was the core area was most against trade deals.

    ReplyReply
  37. 37
    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism says:

    Listening to the Mayor Pro Tem of New Bern begging people to not come out to try to rescue people. They have several Swift Water Rescue teams working, but the wind is much too high for amateurs.

    ReplyReply
  38. 38
    Baud says:

    @Kay: Yep.

    ReplyReply
  39. 39
    JPL says:

    Yesterday I had a hawk come perilously close to my son’s dog who is only 6 pounds. I put out a make shift mannequin, and today I’m going to hang bird blinders. She is not fond of leashes, but now she is only allowed about four feet from me. Before she visits next time, I might have my son buy her a raptor vest.

    ReplyReply
  40. 40

    @Baud: Guess they found out that trade wars aren’t easy to win.

    ReplyReply
  41. 41
    Baud says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:Or maybe they feel like they are winning and they are tired of it.

    ReplyReply
  42. 42
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    I hope you’re right. The RGA ads are beyond the pale, yet there’s still no response from Cordray.

    ReplyReply
  43. 43
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    It’s that time of the year again: Voodoo doll and cannibalism studies triumph at Ig Nobels

    Ten awards were announced on Thursday night at a ceremony at Harvard with an eight-year-old girl on hand to enforce a strict one-minute limit for acceptance speeches by imploring “Please stop, I’m bored” until any offenders stopped talking.

    The awards included a medicine prize for urologists in Michigan who showed that kidney stones could be passed more swiftly by riding on a rollercoaster at a Disney theme park; a nutrition prize for work that revealed the unimpressive nutritional value of a cannibalistic diet; and a literature prize for a study titled “Life is too short to RTFM” that demonstrated how people despair of instruction manuals.

    Lindie Liang and fellow psychologists at the University of Waterloo in Ontario won the economics prize for the voodoo doll investigation. Curious as to why people retaliate against bosses who could have them fired, the team showed that what mattered to slighted employees was a sense that justice had been served.

    In a series of experiments reported in the Leadership Quarterly, workers were asked to recall a time when their boss abused or bullied them, then half were given the chance to unleash their frustration on a virtual voodoo doll. “Relative to those who did not stab and torture a voodoo doll, those who stabbed the doll representing their boss felt a greater sense of fairness and justice,” said Douglas Brown, a member of the team.

    Brown concedes that employees may want to find more positive ways to vent their anger after being offended by a bad boss, but he does not dismiss the value of virtual vengeance. “I personally don’t see any harm in torturing a voodoo doll, if it makes you feel better,” he said.

    Speaking before the ceremony, Brown said he was taking most of his family to the event and was looking forward to a “fabulous weekend’”. “Winning this prize is the highlight of my career,” he said. “We get to show people that science doesn’t necessarily need to be dry and boring. Sometimes you can do sound science and have a laugh along the way.”

    ReplyReply
  44. 44
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    Bet they think the issue is Dems who won’t vote, when what’s needed is to convert the non-diehard GOP voters.

    ReplyReply
  45. 45
    Chyron HR says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch:

    Don’t worry, from what I’ve heard Bern has been completely destroyed.

    ReplyReply
  46. 46
    Baud says:

    @debbie: It’s both, I would think. Too many Dem or Dem leaners sat out 2016, some perhaps lulled into thinking Hillary would win.

    ReplyReply
  47. 47
    Elizabelle says:

    @Quinerly: I’d never realized New Bern’s significance, or that it was a place with a cool history. It was just a destination on signs near Camp Lejeune. I hope they can rebuild.

    A sweet story for us all: She saved dozens of dogs from Florence, but needed help. People lined up to take them.

    RALEIGH: Molly Goldston knew she wanted to save dogs from county animal shelters that, because of forthcoming Hurricane Florence, might have to euthanize them.

    So earlier this week her Wake Forest adoption center, Saving Grace, accepted about two dozen dogs from shelters around the state and amassed a total of 124 — dozens more than it houses in a typical week.

    Goldston didn’t know, however, how many of the dogs she’d be able to place in foster care.

    … People lined up outside her facility on Wednesday night to foster for the weekend all 124 dogs — 100 that were already at Saving Grace and two dozen from other shelters.

    … Government-run animal shelters often become overcrowded before hurricanes, prompting some to euthanize dogs and cats to make room. In some cases, independent adoption centers are willing to take responsibility for animals that might otherwise be euthanized.

    … “A lot of our (county) shelters are expected to have a lot of devastation. We took a lot of them this week so they didn’t have to euthanize them,” she said. “Now I think I should’ve gotten more dogs.”

    Saving Grace isn’t the only group to transfer animals from shelters to foster parents.

    The Pender County Animal Shelter on Wednesday was “begging for assistance,” its manager told The Washington Post in an interview Wednesday. And the Pender County Humane Society is one of several groups trying to find homes for the shelter animals, the Post reported.

    [With Peak Lab Rescue, out of Apex, NC:] “First-time Transporter (volunteer) Marni went to pick up one dog and came back in bumper-to-bumper traffic in the pouring rain with eight dogs and one cat in her brand new car!” Gesser said. “She got there and they had just received dogs they weren’t expecting.”

    So Marni made room.

    No paywall to click; the Raleigh News and Observer lifted theirs on Florence coverage. As has The State, out of Columbia SC, and pilotonline.com for the Virginia Pilot.

    ReplyReply
  48. 48
    Kay says:

    We have a 2 hour fog school delay this morning. So I drive 5 miles to get to work from the (higher income) west side to the (lower income) east side. There are whole groups of kids waiting for a bus that isn’t coming until 9:30 on the east side.

    Okay- they announce delays on tv, on the radio, on Twitter, on Facebook, on the website and thru an automated call system that calls every contact number we have until someone picks up. Still. They don’t know. These kids are raising themselves. We can’t get them to school at the right time. If they manage to graduate it will be a miracle.

    ReplyReply
  49. 49
    debbie says:

    @Baud:

    I would be happy to be wrong on this.

    ReplyReply
  50. 50
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    @Baud: I guess they never thought about the consequences of tariffs.

    ReplyReply
  51. 51
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Misery Man issues challenge to Flori-Duh Man: Missouri man shot himself in genitals, then lied about it, police say

    My money says he’s a Republican.

    ReplyReply
  52. 52
    Elizabelle says:

    WaPost story with a bunch of links to NC pet rescue organizations. Shelter in hurricane’s path warns it will euthanize animals if it can’t find people to adopt them

    … Organizations such as the Pender County Humane Society are helping to facilitate adoption and are working to clear space in the shelter without having to sacrifice any animals. The roughly 20 dogs and cats in Raffee’s van — bound for a rescue group in Pennsylvania — are animals that now won’t face euthanasia.

    “For us, animals are more important than things,” said Lamacchia, who is president of the Burgaw, N.C.-based Humane Society. “Things can be replaced — anything can be replaced — but you can never replace a life, whether it’s a person or an animal.”

    … Even in the days before Hurricane Matthew in 2016, Horton was able to find enough homes for the shelter’s animals. But Matthew didn’t hit North Carolina head on.

    “People are fleeing this state like no tomorrow,” Horton said. “There’s just not people here to take these animals on.”

    … In Pender County and other areas, animal lovers have used social media and word of mouth to try to pull off a large-scale pet rescue. Samira Davis, a Wilmington resident, volunteered Monday to help the Pender County Humane Society coordinate animal relocation. She said they’ve done a good job — for now.

    “We’ve probably saved between 30 and 50 animals, but there are about to be so many more in need,” she said.

    What’s more, the local Humane Society is strapped for cash, and Lamacchia worries that Hurricane Florence is going to further sap their resources.

    “This storm is going to wipe us out,” she said. “If we don’t get people to step up and foster and donate, it’s really going to limit our efforts.”

    But in the meantime, all they can do is drive.

    Raffee and Lamacchia named one of their rescue dogs Neil Young Jr.

    ReplyReply
  53. 53
    Quinerly says:

    @Elizabelle: New Bern is such a sweet town. Big sailing community. I have friends who just live on their boats. Nicholas Sparks has a huge mansion there and subsidized a private school. New Bern is the third oldest town in NC… the colonial capital when we were a colony. Old buildings that have survived for over 300 years. Beautiful riverfront area that looks to be under 6 ft of water.

    ReplyReply
  54. 54

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: Sherrod Brown is another Ds that has supported the tariffs.

    ReplyReply
  55. 55
    Raven says:

    @Quinerly: This lady was a nurse in the Nam and really struggles with PSTD. I hope she made the right choice.

    ReplyReply
  56. 56
    rikyrah says:

    @Quinerly:
    Morning to Poco and the tribe 😄 😺

    ReplyReply
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  58. 58
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    It’s sporadic voters who don’t identify as D or R. They’re not “independents”. They’re just not regular voters. It’s really work intensive to bring them out. We have more of them. So it’s like “it’s pretty close without doing anything special and the last group should be easy!” But that is not true. The last group is the whole thing. If it were easy we’d win 50% of the time.

    A candidate like Obama creates a kind of buzz that permeates even them, but candidates like Obama are really rare. He’s extraordinarily talented. There’s like 4 on his level him the last 25 years, both sides. If it wasn’t rare it wouldn’t be extraordinary :)

    ReplyReply
  59. 59
    Citizen Scientist says:

    Good morning jackals.

    Wondering why there hasn’t been a reporter focused on Kavanaugh’s debts and the mysterious payment of them. Mark Thompson postulated on the radio this morning that the debts were due to gambling, basically losing to judges so that he’d get favorable court rulings, iirc. I find that a little hard to believe that this coming out will make any difference in time. MT seemed to think the other shoe dropping was imminent.

    On my way to Boston for the weekend to see if the sun still exists. Safe travels and well being to all affected by Florence and her friends.

    ReplyReply
  60. 60

    @Kay: Its like getting an A in a class. To get from A- to A is really hard, you can make no mistakes.

    ReplyReply
  61. 61
    r€nato says:

    This is what I have been saying for some time, glad to see Obama is on the same page as I am:

    angry when their guy loses, even angrier when their guy wins. I’m starting to think they are just miserable people, period.

    ReplyReply
  62. 62
    Patricia Kayden says:

    The current regime in the White House has been skimming money appropriated to various federal agencies to pay for kidnapped Brown children.
    WTH?

    ReplyReply
  63. 63
    Quinerly says:

    @Raven: I’m crying about New Bern. Weather Channel has been there all night. Video this morning is horrendous. I’ll be a total mess shortly. Three hrs sleep last night and three hrs sleep the night before. I tend to babysit these monsters. Old habit from years of worrying about my parents and staying up all night with them, even though a 1000 miles apart. White caps on Front Street in New Bern, (Neuse River up 10 ft in some areas) Weather Channel reporting.

    ReplyReply
  64. 64
    Ken says:

    @Baud:

    I pretty tired of Dems who keep wanting politicians to fit into a predetermined archetype.

    Lately I find myself wishing for a Tamurlane type, building pyramids of the skulls of his enemies. I suppose I’ll have to settle for someone less exciting.

    ReplyReply
  65. 65
    Baud says:

    @Ken:

    Don’t settle. Baud! 2020! is already drawing up blueprints!

    (Skulls are surprisingly heavy. An engineering challenge, for sure.)

    ReplyReply
  66. 66
    Elizabelle says:

    @Quinerly: Do you think the old buildings are solidly enough built to withstand and then be renovated?

    Tragic to see colonial history being destroyed, and how odd that New Bern has not had such a high flood over the centuries (that we know of …)

    ReplyReply
  67. 67
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to build a border wall to stop immigration and stick Mexico with the bill. But the New York Times reported the Trump administration has instead proposed paying Mexico to speed up and increase its already robust detention and deportation of Central Americans escaping poverty and violence in what are some of the most murderous countries in the world.

    ReplyReply
  68. 68
    rikyrah says:

    @Patricia Kayden:
    So far $ 169 million!!😠😠

    ReplyReply
  69. 69
    raven says:

    Boss Hawg is drawling about thew “granola belt”! Ignent cocksucker.

    ReplyReply
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  72. 72
    raven says:

    From the Oregon Inlet Idiots

    The Pamlico sound is a little low on the Buxton side (which usually means the other side of the sound is flooded), a little bit of sand on the road at the north end of Buxton and a limb or 2 down here and there.
    We did not lose power through the night (our linemen are the Navy Seals of their trade). We got a good bit of rain and a little bit of wind. There is a some sand crossing the road at the old Frisco Pier location. Our Road in to Hatteras Village which was most people’s biggest concern (due to large South swells) is intact and passable, though covered with a good bit of water sand and debris.
    I think the worst of it is over for us, Cape Fear is shadowing us from the largest swells and the wind seems to be backing off. Since we only have east and southeast wind in our forecast, Soundside flooding is highly unlikely.

    ReplyReply
  73. 73

    @raven: Thanks. Also, WTF is a granola belt?

    ReplyReply
  74. 74
    raven says:

    @schrodingers_cat: The coasts and cities.

    ReplyReply
  75. 75

    @raven: That’s not a belt, more like suspenders. All my life I have lived either on the coast, near or in cities or in college towns. I think these heartland types are just jealous.

    ReplyReply
  76. 76
    Elizabelle says:

    NY Times: Michael Avenatti op ed: The Case for Indicting the President
    Justice Department lawyers have said a sitting president cannot be indicted. It’s time to test that proposition by bringing an indictment that can be reviewed by the Supreme Court.

    FWIW, Stormy Daniels canceled her Richmond VA appearance last night, due to the impending hurricane.

    ReplyReply
  77. 77
    raven says:

    @schrodingers_cat: Haley Barbour (sorry for spelling) is a lot more than jealous.

    ReplyReply
  78. 78
    Elizabelle says:

    @raven: We could call them “intelligence enclaves” too.

    ReplyReply
  79. 79
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @schrodingers_cat: Some people just really don’t like being around large numbers of strangers. They find cities viscerally intolerable and don’t understand why anyone would live in them.

    ReplyReply
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    Elizabelle says:

    @raven: “granola belt” — I assumed it was Trump.

    ReplyReply
  81. 81
    Baud says:

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s not a reason to be insulting, unless you’re prepared for urban areas to insult them back.

    ReplyReply
  82. 82
    Elizabelle says:

    Interesting. The final two paragraphs of Avenatti’s op ed:

    Which brings us to the question of who on the Supreme Court should be allowed to review an indictment against the president. Last week, during his confirmation hearing, Judge Brett Kavanaugh refused to commit to recusing himself in the event he was confirmed and a case involving the investigation of Mr. Trump were to reach the Supreme Court. He took this position despite the fact that his strong views in favor of presidential immunity are outside the legal mainstream and he was chosen by Mr. Trump during known inquiries into the conduct of the president and his campaign. This is wrong.

    Should Mr. Trump be indicted and in the event that the case reaches the Supreme Court, Judge Kavanaugh’s recusal should be mandatory. The American public’s view of impartiality of the rule of law and of the Supreme Court hangs in the balance.

    ReplyReply
  83. 83

    @Matt McIrvin: I love both big cities and small towns its the cul-de-sac hell that I can’t stand.

    ReplyReply
  84. 84

    @Baud: Mahatma Baud is right as always.

    ReplyReply
  85. 85
    Quinerly says:

    @Elizabelle: I’m waiting for someone from Beaufort, NC to check in. It’s bad at my condo at Pine Knoll Shores. Only 46 units, built in 1972 on the ocean. Think we lost the community deck and pool that overlooked the ocean at our small complex. PKS people on the sound side reporting that the ocean dunes were topped. We lost a pool about 20 years ago, so it does happen. PKS police department posted on FB, “It’s bad, stay in if you didn’t evacuate.”

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  86. 86
    Jeffro says:

    This oughta be fun: The Secret To Cracking Trumpov’s Base

    …Dogs, though known for their loyalty, can only take so much from one abusive human. Alas, the same cannot be said for the aging, white, rural and southern people who make up Trump’s base. He can lie to them, hurt them with tariffs, make a mockery of their values, suck up to freedom-hating dictators they once distrusted, and they’ll stick with him. Cult 45 is thought to be impermeable.

    But surprise — a raft of new polls show that some of the most hard-core Trumpsters are starting to get a clue. I know, hold your applause. It’s like discovering that climate change is not a hoax when your town is under water, and all your commander in chief can do is throw you a roll of paper towels. And the woke among the true believers is small.

    The decline could be because Trump’s increasingly moonstruck tweets have lost their power. Or maybe it’s because all of the people around him believe he’s an idiot and they’re going public with the consensus inside the White House (another reason to get a dog). But I think Trump’s base is showing some erosion because his followers feel he finally crossed a line: He’s now insulting them.

    Probably the full combo plate: a few are realizing just how truly stupid Donnie is, a few are realizing just how corrupt/out for himself he is, and a few are tired of defending every dumb thing he says/tweets. And yeah, a few might have picked up on the fact that he has nothing but contempt for them.

    …some of them are catching on. A Quinnipiac poll out this week showed that even among non-college-educated whites — the strongest demographic holdout for Trump — a plurality now say they’d like to see Congress be more of a check on the president. Since his election, he’s down 14 points among the “poorly educated” that Trump once professed to love, a CNN poll found.

    In West Virginia, where Trump could shoot the Mountaineer mascot and still walk at the head of a parade, attacks on Obamacare are killing Republican chances of taking down Senator Joe Manchin.

    The other signature issue is the tax cut. Remember how Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, another plutocrat who has trouble hiding his contempt for flyover country, described it last year? “Not only will this tax cut pay for itself,” he said, “but it will pay down the debt.”

    We’ll soon be running a trillion-dollar deficit, up 32 percent this fiscal year, thanks to the tax cut. Wasn’t this the sort of thing that roused Tea Party opposition to President Obama — crippling our children with a legacy of debt?

    Naturally ‘they’ – Trumpov’s supporters – don’t care about the deficit. But the glaring hypocrisy is, well, glaring.

    …In truth, economics will probably not move Trump supporters. Their vote for him was more about status anxiety in a changing nation than financial uncertainty. They’ll stay with him only so long as they allow themselves to be easy marks for the insulting con of this presidency.

    Yeah, and then unfortunately they’ll move on to a smarter, more subtle version of Trumpism…less obvious grift, more and sneakier ways to attack the safety net. Ernst, Cotton, and Co. are on standby…

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  87. 87
    rikyrah says:

    Three words:
    Stop and Frisk

    Jon Cooper 🌊 (@joncoopertweets) Tweeted:
    Billionaire ex-New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is planning to run for president in 2020, according to a report in the Times of London. It says Bloomberg, who toyed w/ an independent White House run in 2008, 2012 & 2016, is going to run as a Democrat.

    https://t.co/WM8ghHzKHO https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1040420178322964485?s=17

    ReplyReply
  88. 88
    Quinerly says:

    @rikyrah: we are dragging. No sleep. Poco knows something is up because of my weird sleep patterns the last two nights. Thanks for the sweet good morning. Have a nice Friday.

    ReplyReply
  89. 89
    Bruuuuce says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Yep. We canned six of the turncoats, and one of the two who survived is on Staten Island, which (being the land of cops, firefighters, and other municipal workers) trends strongly R in any event. I’m very pleased to note that my bastard state Senator (Jose Peralta) is gone.

    Unfortunately, despite a good shot at her, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a DINO if there ever was one, managed to edge Jumaane Williams for the LG nom. (Yes, NY is weird in that we have separate ballots for the Gov and LtGov, and political enemies could easily wind up as the combined ticket if the primaries break right, as we came close to doing this time around.)

    ReplyReply
  90. 90
    Elizabelle says:

    @Quinerly: Please keep us posted. Hoping Florence is not devastating to Pine Knoll Shores.

    ReplyReply
  91. 91
    Bruuuuce says:

    @rikyrah: Bloomie is going to run smack into the same issue that Joe Biden and Wilmer are going to face: Dems are pushing for much more of a representative group, including women, PoC, Latinx folks, nonbinary people, and younger faces. Old white men, some of whom actually are good reps, are beginning to fall, and, especially if we flip at least one house and things start to get done by the new Democrats, we’re going to see more of the same. As a white guy getting older, I can only cheer and say, it’s about time!

    ReplyReply
  92. 92

    @rikyrah: He will be the candidate of MSM deficit scolds.

    ReplyReply
  93. 93
    Matt McIrvin says:

    Our friends from Andover got cleared to go home.

    ReplyReply
  94. 94
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I love both big cities and small towns its the cul-de-sac hell that I can’t stand.

    QFT. I have to admit that after a decade and a half of living in the boonie woods I find the city to be just a little too… Frantic would be the word I guess. I still enjoy my visits (I enjoy seeing and hearing people who don’t look and sound like me) but after 4-6 hours I start getting a little tense.

    ReplyReply
  95. 95
    Jeffro says:

    Btw speaking of that Paper That Shall Not Be Named, there’s an excellent piece by David Leonhardt about how we’re measuring all the wrong things (or at least, not enough of the right things) when we talk about the economy. It is, frankly, a gold mine for the next half dozen Democratic presidents:

    …The stock market, for example, has completely recovered from the financial crisis, and then some. Stocks are now worth almost 60 percent more than when the crisis began in 2007, according to a inflation-adjusted measure from Moody’s Analytics. But wealthy households own the bulk of stocks. Most Americans are much more dependent on their houses. That’s why the net worth of the median household is still about 20 percent lower than it was in early 2007. When television commentators drone on about the Dow, they’re not talking about a good measure of most people’s wealth.

    The unemployment rate has also become less meaningful than it once was. In recent decades, the number of idle working-age adults has surged. They are not working, not looking for work, not going to school and not taking care of children. Many of them would like to work, but they can’t find a decent-paying job and have given up looking. They are not counted in the official unemployment rate.

    There’s lots more, including other ways the government can put out data that shows shares of national income flowing to the rich, middle class, and poor. Wonking out alone won’t win over voters, but a skilled politician…or party…could easily use that data to acknowledge what working people in this country already know, and help show them what’s in it for them if they vote for better. Better politicians and better policies.

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  96. 96
    NonyNony says:

    @Kay:

    IMO, Ohio Democrats believe, all evidence to the contrary, that Ohio is a “blue” state and all of these Republican wins over the years are flukes due to poor management of campaigns. It’s not true.

    So much this. I live in Columbus, but I have family in NW Ohio, and lived in NE and SW Ohio at various times in my life. The folks here in Columbus are just certain that the state is “really blue” and it’s all about getting Democrats to “bother to show up and vote”. If they would leave Columbus a bit and travel around the state a bit they might find out that, no, actually the state is full of angry conservative old people for the most part and they all vote Republican. You get a skewed perspective of the state if you think it’s all like Columbus – in fact almost none of the rest of the state is like Columbus at all. Even the other major cities – Cleveland and Cincy – are more conservative than Columbus is.

    ReplyReply
  97. 97
    Betty says:

    Hi, just checking in to confirm that Dominica came through the passage of Tropical Storm Isaac with minor damage. We are greatly relieved. Thanks for all your positive thoughts and prayers.

    ReplyReply
  98. 98
    JPL says:

    @Matt McIrvin: Is the power back on? I can’t imagine using a gas stove in that situation though. ugh

    ReplyReply
  99. 99
    Elizabelle says:

    @Betty: So good to hear from you. I wish you would do a guest post one of these days, on how Dominica is doing with the rebuilding after Maria. A tale of two islands.

    Keep us posted!

    ReplyReply
  100. 100
    Jeffro says:

    @rikyrah: Bloomberg: no. But it’s not surprising – everyone and his/her uncle is going to want to run for the Dem nomination in 2020. Like, literally everyone. You can sense it, there’s blood in the water, he is wildly unpopular and the economy is about to have a ‘correction’.

    My “thought and prayer” is that Trumpov still limps to the GOP nomination in 2020 at this point, because that will be a blue wave like we have rarely seen in our history. But for the country’s sake, I’m fine if he’s in leg irons and we ‘only’ handily beat whomever succeeds him.

    ReplyReply
  101. 101
    jackmac says:

    @Baud: Indiana went blue in 2008 because Obama’s campaign went in and outhustled the Republicans. A great stealth effort that the GOP didn’t see coming. Republians made sure it didn’t happen again in 2012. Except for northwest Indiana, Indianapolis and a few other pockets, Indiana might as well be Mississippi.

    ReplyReply
  102. 102
    Gelfling 545 says:

    @Immanentize: I have no patience with people yammering that the candidate should do this, say that, act like such and such. I want the candidate to show me exactly who they are. I want no surprises when they’re in office. For people looking for exciting candidates, well, Trump is the result. He’s created a lot of excitement. Certainly, he’s kept my blood pressure elevated for a couple of years. How about honest, competent instead.

    ReplyReply
  103. 103
    JPL says:

    @Betty: That is good news. Hopefully the angry sea gods stay away from the islands this year.

    ReplyReply
  104. 104
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    A pod of white St Lawrence River belugas have found their unicorn and I don’t think they’re giving him back.

    (drone footage at the link)

    ReplyReply
  105. 105
    bemused says:

    Fred on twitter loves trump tweets. I’d love trump tweeting if he was doing it from a maximum security prison for the criminally insane forced to sleep in a cage on bare, icy cold concrete floors with a space blanket.

    ReplyReply
  106. 106
    danielx says:

    @Kay:

    You know, I’m perfectly okay with that.

    ReplyReply
  107. 107
    Walker says:

    Just talked to mom in Wilmington. No power but everything is fine. Like Floyd, this looks like this will effect a lot of the inland, but Wilmington will be (relatively) ok.

    ReplyReply
  108. 108
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    Damn T-Bogg just tweeted that Wembly has bone cancer which has spread to his lung.

    ReplyReply
  109. 109
    Elizabelle says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt: That’s very sad. Does not sound like a Lily miracle cure is in the cards. Poor T-Bogg and pet.

    ReplyReply
  110. 110
    Quinerly says:

    @Elizabelle:
    Elizabelle and all. Thanks for all the interest and support. To clarify, I got back from NC (Carteret, Craven and Pitt) a couple of weeks ago. In St. Louis but following closely because of friends, etc and because of property. This looks to be worse than Floyd. Bad news for the hog industry. That’s going to be the next thing in the next 72 hrs. Toxic.

    ReplyReply
  111. 111
    WaterGirl says:

    @Kay: I’ll take quiet competence any day of the week.

    ReplyReply
  112. 112
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    Manafort pleading guilty today according to CNN

    ReplyReply
  113. 113
    WaterGirl says:

    @JPL: Holy cow, that’s scary. Now I have to go google raptor vest.

    ReplyReply
  114. 114
    Elizabelle says:

    Performance Today (public radio) right now playing selection from Doctor Atomic, the John Addams opera Cheryl Rofer highlighted a while back. You can catch PT shows streaming for about 30 days after initial air date.

    Would have been cool to see that, al fresco(?) at Santa Fe Opera.

    ReplyReply
  115. 115
    Gelfling 545 says:

    @Bruuuuce: Also this might not be the best opportunity for a billionaire businessman to run. Saying “But, I’m a goodT billionaire” might not carry a lot of weight.

    ReplyReply
  116. 116
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @JPL: Their part of town was apparently not served by the bad main. Don’t know whether they turned the power back on.

    ReplyReply
  117. 117
    But her emails!!! says:

    @schrodingers_cat:
    Belt or suspenders are equally good. Either way it viantly attempts to prevent the rest of the country from dropping trow and showing it’s ass.

    ReplyReply
  118. 118
    James E Powell says:

    “That is an old playbook. It’s as old as time,” Obama said, adding: “Here’s the thing, in a healthy democracy, that playbook doesn’t work.”

    What about in a sick, corrupt, dysfunctional democracy?

    ReplyReply
  119. 119
    WaterGirl says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt: Oh, no.

    ReplyReply
  120. 120
    Spanky says:

    @Quinerly: Pine Knoll Shores forecast from NWS:

    Today
    Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 81. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
    Tonight
    Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
    Saturday
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 82. Windy, with a southeast wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
    Saturday Night
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
    Sunday
    Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    ReplyReply
  121. 121
    Gin & Tonic says:

    The Twitter machine is telling me Manafort pleaded guilty to two of seven charges in his second case. Hoping one of the myriad lawyers who comment here can explain why only two, what happens to the other five, and whether this is good or bad for the good guys.

    ReplyReply
  122. 122
    JPL says:

    @WaterGirl: Nothing like a big hawk go whoosh over your head. It didn’t faze Nona, but she’s a little miffed with me hovering over her when she is outside. The son and dil are in NYC to attend a wedding, and I can’t imagine what I would tell them is she was hurt.

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  123. 123
    The Moar You Know says:

    I had some grumbling in the office from my Trumpsters about Obama’s speeches. I just laughed at them. Told them there was nothing he could do to please them except to die, so why shouldn’t he go out and badmouth them and their party?

    Oh, the pouting. Jesus. They really are such delicate snowflakes.

    ReplyReply
  124. 124
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @But her emails!!!: This reminds of a line from a book/movie about a man who wears both a belt and suspenders: “Never trust a man who can’t trust his own pants.”

    ReplyReply
  125. 125
    Immanentize says:

    @Gin & Tonic: I need to read up on which charges — are they the more serious ones? Do they implicate more co-conspirators in Ukraine? I’ll try and get back later — student office hours.

    ReplyReply
  126. 126
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Gin & Tonic: We’ll find out in an hour or so.

    ReplyReply
  127. 127
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Immanentize: Via TPM:

    The two-count information charges Manafort with one count of conspiracy against the United States and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice through witness tampering. It’s also seeks forfeiture of assets Manafort obtained through the alleged scheme.

    ReplyReply
  128. 128
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Immanentize: Fuck your students, they can wait. We need informed speculation here.

    ReplyReply
  129. 129
    Immanentize says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Those would be very hard charges to pardon anyone one.

    ReplyReply
  130. 130
    Immanentize says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Well, it seems I am just waiting for a student who is blowing me off.

    “Miscommunication” I mean.

    ReplyReply
  131. 131
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Immanentize: My thought also.

    ReplyReply
  132. 132
    VOR says:

    @r€nato: I found this blog post, titled “The Miserable People“, useful as it fit my perception of Trump supporters.

    ReplyReply
  133. 133
    Platonailedit says:

    A superseding criminal information filed against Manafort alleges conspiracy against the U.S. (money laundering, tax fraud, failing to file Foreign Bank Account Reports, violating FARA, lying and misrepresenting to DOJ) and conspiracy to obstruct justice. https://t.co/9mb9DsUp1h— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 14, 2018

    Lock the traitorous thug up.

    ReplyReply
  134. 134
    Platonailedit says:

    While @realDonaldTrump inaccurately charged @JohnKerry with FARA violations bc he spoke with Iranians, Manafort pleads guilty to, among other charges, FARA violation— Sam Vinograd (@sam_vinograd) September 14, 2018

    ReplyReply
  135. 135
    Elizabelle says:

    Fresh thread up, on Manafort and his deal. Hurricane Paul.

    ReplyReply
  136. 136
    Platonailedit says:

    Fuck the moderation. I thought bj version eleventeenth is a bfd.

    ReplyReply
  137. 137
    Platonailedit says:

    A superseding criminal information filed against Manafort alleges conspiracy against the U.S. (money laundering, tax fraud, failing to file Foreign Bank Account Reports, violating FARA, lying and misrepresenting to DOJ) and conspiracy to obstruct justice. https://t.co/9mb9DsUp1h— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 14, 2018

    While @realDonaldTrump inaccurately charged @JohnKerry with FARA violations bc he spoke with Iranians, Manafort pleads guilty to, among other charges, FARA violation— Sam Vinograd (@sam_vinograd) September 14, 2018

    ReplyReply
  138. 138
    Immanentize says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: @Gin & Tonic:
    OK, here is the deal — when you plead guilty to an offense, the court has a pre-sentence Investigation report prepared. In federal court, sentences are heavily guided by the federal sentencing guidelines which is a sentencing rubric that the court MUST consider. For a judge to go outside the guidelines, either up of down, she must have good reasons for doing so which are put in writing and may be appealed. The reason that the guidelines sentence range is so firm is because it includes all the normal sentencing considerations including type of crime, victims, damage, etc. For all the statutory items, aggravating and mitigating, you get ‘points’ which raise or lower your guidelines range. With me so far?

    Acceptance of responsibility is a HUGE benefit to defendants. So, once one pleads guilty, the probation department (technically the judicial branch, but really just cops) will ask you to explain every detail of everything associated with the crime. if you hesitate at all, you lose your acceptance of responsibility good points and instead get bad points for lack of remorse.

    These two charges will require Manafort to explain a whole heck of a lot about his money laundering crimes and his attempts to cover up sources and obstruct justice. Plus, his failure to fully come clean in this case can affect his range of punishment in the Virginia case. It will be interesting to see whether the sentencing is now consolidated….

    ReplyReply
  139. 139
    catclub says:

    @Quinerly:

    New Bern looks to be destroyed.

    Waveland MS got about a 30ft storm surgefrom Katrina. The high water marker, 2/3rds up the interstate 10 overpass embankment, that is ten miles from the coast,
    always gets may attention.

    ReplyReply
  140. 140
    Mike in NC says:

    We visited New Bern a few years ago. It sits right on a very wide River and there is no high ground whatsoever.

    ReplyReply
  141. 141
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Immanentize: Thank you.

    ReplyReply
  142. 142
    Ken B says:

    @Spanky:
    I’m not a lawyer, but my understanding is that when someone flips, it’s common for them to plead to some of the (usually lesser) counts. The other charges are then held over their head in case they fail to cooperate to the satisfaction of the prosecutor\judge.

    Based on that, I think he’s flipped.

    Not sure how that would interact with his existing convictions and sentences.

    ReplyReply
  143. 143
    Quinerly says:

    @Mike in NC: confluence of Trent and Neuse. Nothing like this ever before… even Hazel and Floyd. Refrigerators floating in a street. One story houses topped. High tide again at lunch time.

    ReplyReply
  144. 144
    Quinerly says:

    @catclub: had friends who lost everything in Waveland in Katrina. Actually, Ihave camped in that park there years ago the night before Nola Jazz and Heritage Festival. My tent got flooded in just a normal rain. Ended up parking my Ford Probe on a little hill there so I could get a bit of a shut eye in it before the fest….probably around 1999. Haven’t been back since.

    ReplyReply
  145. 145
    Quinerly says:

    @Spanky: thanks. It just came through a few minutes ago on my FB feed.

    ReplyReply
  146. 146
    Mart says:

    I wrote this late last night on the maybe cyber attack gas explosion thread:

    I would go with something simple. Utility gas pressure regulator fails on major distribution line. Your oven and a couple stove top burners are on and the burst of gas blows out the flames like birthday candles. Fill up kitchen with gas, gas finds a spark.

    I did not add that the relatively few homes that blew up probably were the ones that had their pressure regulator fail. Another thought I had is with fracking a lot of factories and utilities are converting from coal fired boilers for steam to turn their electric generators to gas. Or installing what is essentially a jet engine to turn the generator directly. With cheap fracked gas the co-generated electricity is cheaper than buying from the utility, and helps with peak demand shaving in the summer. So gas companies have been scrambling to extend the required high pressure mains. Maybe they screwed up with this.

    ReplyReply
  147. 147
    Ksmiami says:

    @Kay: I hate them right back- they are human dreck. And they know it, hence the anger

    ReplyReply
  148. 148
    cleosmom says:

    I noticed that right after the 2016 election — never saw such a sorry gaggle of sore winners. They weren’t in any kind of celebrating mood: it was more like an odd kind of bitter glee.

    ReplyReply

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