Florence Is an Angry, Angry Storm

This hurricane is terrifying. Not only will I not be going on vacation to the Outer Banks this weekend, but the Outer Banks may simply cease to exist:

Unfortunately, Bruce Willis and Batffleck will not be able to save us:

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surfand rip currents.

Yikes.

And it goes without saying that if one of you needs a place to stay and can’t afford to styay in a hotel to just holler and I will come get you and you can crash here and enjoy my new lakefront property and floating garden.






75 replies
  1. 1
    tybee says:

    the outer banks will still be there next year. rearranged a bit but not gone.

  2. 2
    feebog says:

    Have a friend who is directly in the path. Hope they are getting out. Mandatory evacuations in So. Carolina already announced.

  3. 3
    Amir Khalid says:

    Stay safe, all of you chez Cole. And everyone else around those parts.

  4. 4
    infodoq says:

    Will be here inlandia, in Durham with @DavidAnderson – we’ll be fine. But the coast – nah

  5. 5
    TenguPhule says:

    And there are two more storms coming in behind that one.

  6. 6
    TenguPhule says:

    and you can crash here and enjoy my new lakefront property and floating garden.

    Willows in the mirror are closer then they appear.

  7. 7
    Rob says:

    @TenguPhule: One of them is currently projected to go due west and so is no immediate threat to mainland USA (Isaac), while the other one is projected to curve north into the open Atlantic (Helene).

  8. 8
    TenguPhule says:

    In a message posted on his Senate campaign website, Romney said that Republicans “have been shouting about this as long as I can remember.”

    “We called for an amendment to balance the budget,” he said. “Just a few years ago, the Tea Party movement brought new energy to the issue. But now that Republicans are in charge in Washington, we appear to have become silent about deficits and debt.”

    Romney’s 2012 running mate, now-House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), built a reputation as a deficit hawk and a vocal advocate for entitlement reform over his years in Washington. But with Trump’s ascension to the White House, Ryan and other Republicans on Capitol Hill have largely punted on deficit reduction, working instead to pass a $1.4 trillion tax cut as well as a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill.

    Romney made no mention of either measure in the statement on his campaign website. But he pointed to the country’s $21 trillion national debt as well as a recent forecast by the Congressional Budget Office that deficits will soon balloon to more than $1 trillion per year.

    “I’m not saying we should immediately cut one trillion dollars from government spending,” Romney said. “But I am saying, with a booming economy, full employment, a soaring stock market, and record asset values, we should be shrinking the deficit, not growing it.”

    In the post, Romney, the former chairman of Bain Capital, sought to strike an everyman tone. He related the story of how he bought his “first house” and was shocked to realize that of his $246 monthly mortgage payment, $241 went toward interest.

    And the obvious solution is to RAISE TAXES, Romney you fucking man-slut.

  9. 9
    The Dangerman says:

    Trump is practicing his paper towel tossing. Any of his golf resorts in harms way?

    Also, I think the idea of converging on Casa Cole is excellent!

    Oh, you weren’t serious. My bad.

    Seriously, though, sucks you can’t take the dogs to the coast; that bums me out.

  10. 10
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    Nothing to see here, either

    @ nytclimate
    In its third major move in two months to roll back climate change regulations, the E.P.A. is about to weaken rules on emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

    Ben Wikler @ benwikler
    Methane traps heat 2500% more efficiently than does carbon dioxide

  11. 11
    Mai Naem mobile says:

    Will this be Trumpov’s Katrina? Will Lindsay Graham vote against the emergency aid package? Will Lindsey Graham Wine when Blue State Senators vote against it? Seriously stay safe everybody.

  12. 12
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    The Georgia barrier islands are unlikely to emerge unscathed. Have we heard from jackal-commenter Tybee in the last day or two?

  13. 13
    rikyrah says:

    Prayers for everyone in the path.😥😥😥

  14. 14
    TenguPhule says:

    The EPA’s workforce has shrunk nearly 8 percent since the beginning of the Trump administration. Records show that in 18 months, nearly 1,600 workers have left the agency, and fewer than 400 have been hired, The Post’s Brady Dennis, Juliet Eilperin and Andrew Ba Tran report. The agency has lost at least 260 scientists, 180 “environmental protection specialists,” and 106 engineers, and is now at levels not seen since under the Reagan administration.

    of course.

  15. 15
    namekarB says:

    if one of you needs a place to stay and can’t afford to styay in a hotel to just holler and I will come get you

    Sounds fantastic. I’m getting pretty burned out here in California

  16. 16
    J R in WV says:

    So right about the danger of this storm, John G.

    My cousin and her husband are in Wilmington NC, pretty much right on the bull’s eye for this storm. I talked to them earlier, partly because cousin is scheduled for an MRI Thursday, now optimistically rescheduled for the NEXT Thursday, assuming the hospital is still operational in a week!!

    Then I mentioned the approaching storm. Tried to get them to commit to heading for Atlanta in the morning, no good. She has a son in the Research Triangle area, which is likely to have huge rainfall flooding. But I think their magical thinking will allow them to not evacuate, regardless of Mandatory Evacuation orders.

    Part of me wants to all emergency services to tell them to roust them out in the morning, part of me thinks, Trump voters, to hell with them. But I grew up with her, like a sister, sweet but politically naive beyond belief. Hard!!!

  17. 17
    daize says:

    Maybe sort of OT but not to the blog subjects. John if you say no, I understand, but… we have the lovely threads with artists in our midst and writers’ posts. What about a recovery post from time to time? I tend to struggle. Thanks

  18. 18
    Schlemazel says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:
    Ask and I shall answer
    @tybee:

  19. 19
    satby says:

    I always hate hearing that people think they can ride these storms out and not evacuate when ordered to. Because then they risk not only their own lives but also the lives of first responders and rescue workers.
    My friends decided to ride out Katrina in Waveland, MS. Pretty much right where the storm came in. We couldn’t find out if They had survived for days. They came out to dead bodies dangling from trees after the surge. She was so traumatized they left and never went back.
    No one needs to experience things like that.

  20. 20
    Schlemazel says:

    @J R in WV:
    When I lived in Cocoa Beach I found a common delusion that huracanes can’t hit Central FL around the’ bump’. That sort of magical thinking is going to get people killed when it happens.

  21. 21
    Schlemazel says:

    @satby:
    There is an amazing video of some folks who decided they would party out Andrew. Starts with a lot of drinking, laughing & music. It ends with a lot of flying debris, screaming, crying and praying for Jebus to save them. They lived but I bet they still have nightmares every time it rains hard.

  22. 22
    Steeplejack (phone) says:

    @TenguPhule:

    Thank you for your unsourced Internet bullshit.

  23. 23
    MagdaInBlack says:

    It’s all gonna be ok. Pats on it.

    With another storm approaching, Robertson again gathered with CBN staff today to order Florence to veer away from land and produce no damage.

    “I don’t want that thing to come in,” Robertson said. “I don’t want it to hurt Regent, I don’t wait it to hurt CBN, I don’t want it to tear up the beautiful campus, I don’t want it to tear these trees down, I don’t want to see any damage, I don’t want a bunch of glass flowing, and I don’t want [damage] all over this area that is counting on us to pray for them.”

    Robertson then commanded Florence, in the name of Jesus, to change its path away from land and to spin off into the Atlantic ocean.

    “We declare in the name of the Lord that you shall go no farther, you shall do no damage in this area,” he said. “We declare a shield of protection all over Tidewater and we declare a shield of protection over those innocent people in the path of this hurricane. In Jesus’ holy name, be out to sea!”

    Robertson then assured those who had gathered in prayer that they will “live to mark this day” as the moment when their prayers guaranteed that “we are not going to let Hurricane Florence hurt us.”

  24. 24
    Old Dan and Little Ann says:

    I was in Corolla in the Outer Banks 2 months ago today. I spent a lot of time thinking how freaky it would be to experience a hurricane. Be safe for all those in the path.

  25. 25
    Humdog says:

    @daize: Hang tough, daize.

  26. 26
    zhena gogolia says:

    @MagdaInBlack:

    See now, I go to a church where we pray a lot but never crazy prayers like that. I just don’t get it.

  27. 27
    Juju says:

    Dare county is under mandatory evacuation for visitors and residents. I’m glad I spent last week in Avon. The weather was beautiful. I have friends who live in Avon and have decided to stay, if the storm hits Wilmington and not Hatteras Island. I’ve told them they have a place to stay if they change their minds. I hope they change their minds. My sister is coming in from Morehead City, NC Wednesday sometime. Whatever happens to the family beach house happens. This will be the 7th or 8th hurricane to hit the area since the house was built. I hope the streak of little to no damage holds up, but I’m not holding my breath.

  28. 28

    @Steeplejack (phone): That’s the best kind of bullshit, don’t ya know. 😉

  29. 29
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    Overwrought it may be, but back in her heyday nobody did contemporary Southern Gothic better than Anne Rivers Siddons.

    She got awful and unreadable in the last 10-15 years, but she wrote damned compelling stories when she was at her peak.

  30. 30

    @MagdaInBlack: Maybe the good reverend should go out the beach as the storm is approaching and repeat the commandment.

  31. 31
    John 2.0 says:

    I’m glad I started my awesome new work-from-home job here in the Triangle just in time to lost power and internet for a week.

    This one looks like it’s going to be a doozy. There were people living in FEMA trailers brought in for Fran and Floyd 10 years after those storms. Some of the projections say this one could be worse for inland NC, if the storm moves slowly after landfall. I just hope a tree doesn’t fall on my house.

  32. 32
    guachi says:

    I am not too far away in Augusta, GA. Our small house is available if someone needs a home! We are already getting rain but it can’t be as bad as what the coast will get.

  33. 33
    Duane says:

    @The Dangerman: Trumpov’s Katrina has already occurred in Puerto Rico. Lousy fuck let thousands die. Complete negligence that needs dragged out in the open. If I were counting on FEMA under this administration, I’d be worried.
    While Cole’s out picking up people, he could stop in Missouri and I’d help him with the willow.

  34. 34
    Joy in FL says:

    @daize: I think that is a good idea.

  35. 35
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This change is a reaction to the President’s diet of Quarter Pounders, Filet o Fish, fried apple pies, KFC, and a lot of diet coke.

  36. 36
    nahunta says:

    Carteret County and Pamlico County, NC now under mandatory evacuation orders starting tomorrow. The amount of rain predicted is gonna make this worse than Fran & Floyd.

  37. 37
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Schlemazel: There’s a long standing popular, not scientific, argument that it is almost impossible for a hurricane to directly hit the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater area because of the shape of the mouth of Tampa Bay. That the physical geography combined with the weather somehow pushes the storms either north or south.

  38. 38

    Ohh, I just had to restart my phone I guess. Weird.

  39. 39
    Schlemazel says:

    @MagdaInBlack:
    Like any good grifter he cannot lose. If the storm missed or somehow does not do as much damage as worst predictions suggest he claims credit. If it levels the who place it is the gays, abortionist and liberals that caused gawd to overrule Pat

  40. 40
    Schlemazel says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    I suppose there could be some actual reason there are no recent hits to Central Fl (there are historic hist in the Cocoa area – don’t know about St. Pete) but I would not bet my life on it.

  41. 41
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @MagdaInBlack: If Florence wipes him out, does he have to make a public statement that as was the case below, his Deity is unable to effect a hurricane?

  42. 42
    Aleta says:

    I’ve been wondering why the weather news is showing the cone of probability without the different tracks from the models used to calculate it. (Like in Florida last year.) If it was somehow related to Republicans defunding science.

    Now I wonder if it was a decision made by NOAA or the NHC, in case seeing the tracks of the different models might influence some people to delay leaving. As happened in Fl w/ the west coast vs east coast projections.

    Maybe they hope the cone visual by itself is a better way to get through.
    (Then after the storm some anti-scientist in Congress will complain the storm area wasn’t as big as the cone was …)

  43. 43
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @John 2.0: That’s the big worry. That it either, because of the high pressure system, either stalls just off the coast and churns for several days at Cat 4 and just picks up and dumps water over North Carolina and parts of South Carolina and Virginia or that it makes land fall, reduces to Cat 1 while still a large storm in size, and then stalls overland and just picks up and dumps water over North Carolina and parts of South Carolina and Virginia. My understanding from looking at the forecast models is the latter has a higher probability than the former, but both would be very, very, very bad outcomes.

  44. 44
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @guachi: Narrator: It was that bad…//

  45. 45
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Schlemazel: The last hurricane to come right through the bay – as in enter the mouth of the bay between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties and then barrel right through was, I think, back in the early 70s. We had a couple of tropical storms do it when I was growing up, but the area has been fortunately very, very lucky regarding a hurricane.

  46. 46
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Aleta: Actually, I think in this case, it is because the last time I saw the animated spaghetti model they had all converged within the margin of error 72 hours out. Basically from the model with the southernmost track to the one with the northernmost track, there is, at best, a 100 to 200 mile difference. And given the size of Florence that isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference for most people in the path of the storm.

  47. 47
    FlyingToaster says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    If Florence wipes him out, does he have to make a public statement that as was the case below, his Deity is unable to effect a hurricane?

    Oh, honey, it’s magic. If Pat intervenes with his evil sky fairy, maybe the evil sky fairy won’t kill everyone. But maybe it will.

    The relationship between television ministries and Christianity is one of those microperf dotted lines that don’t actually let you tear the blank off the sheet. Plus money.

  48. 48
    Mike E says:

    Enough is enough! I have had it with these m-f’ing hurricanes on this m-f’ing state!

  49. 49
    Aleta says:

    @Schlemazel: I don’t understand all the interactions, but so many things that can affect storm tracks are changing…warmer ocean temperatures, local water vapor. Even the steering mechanism of storms due to the temperature gradient, so the storms can move slower.

  50. 50
    Study pantload, the emotionally unavailable unicorn says:

    Oy! Here’s hoping the thin line between lake front property and house boat is one you won’t have to cross, John.

  51. 51
    J R in WV says:

    This is an interesting site for boat owners, I think provided by an insurance group of some sort, called BoatUS
    with a variety of NOAA maps regarding storms approaching landfall.

    Scary stuff, people. 140 mph now, though to hit NC coast Thursday night. They have the cone as well as the spaghetti models,

  52. 52
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: who cares if those rich jerks in the Outer Banks lose their beach houses?

    Now, it it goes south and hits St. Simons and *I* lose *my* beach house….

  53. 53
    Mai Naem mobile says:

    I am sure glad Katrina fuck up Krjsten Nielsen is in charge of DHS right now. I also would hire the Exxon Valdez captain to lead another oil tanker across the world.

  54. 54
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Steve in the ATL: All disaster management and emergency response is local.

  55. 55
    bmoak says:

    @Mai Naem mobile:

    I’m sure Secretary Neilsen will do her job, which is to send ICE and Border Patrol to shelters, hospitals and evacuation centers to round up and detain any undocumented people they find.

  56. 56
    ljt says:

    We’re in Edisto Beach, SC, just south of Charleston. Visited separately today by two different officials (local police officer and SC DNR rep) who each had clipboards and were noting by address who is staying and who is evacuating. Mayor has ordered mandatory evacuation tomorrow at noon. Based on past experience (2 years in a row), we will leave Wednesday morning. I have a deep sense of fear for the next couple of weeks and the trauma that is about to hit the east coast. Holding all in the path and aftermath in my heart.

  57. 57
    burnspbesq says:

    Would Trump deny Federal disaster assistance to NC and VA to teach them a lesson about electing Dem governors?

  58. 58
    Elizabelle says:

    @ljt: All the best to you and your neighbors.

  59. 59
    Walker says:

    Called my mother in Wilmington. She refuses to leave. Many of the native Wilmingtonians are saying that if they did not leave for Hazel, they will not leave for this one.

  60. 60
    Amir Khalid says:

    @burnspbesq:
    I know he’d like to. As we type, he is probably screaming at some hapless aide for warning him about the pretty damaging optics.

  61. 61
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Schlemazel:

    Ah, thanks. My access to BJ has been going in and out today, mostly out, and I missed Tybee altogether. Just everyone even remotely in harm’s way, STAY SAFE!

  62. 62
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    Sucks to be you.

  63. 63
    Duane says:

    @burnspbesq: Trumpov will pass out paper towels, take pictures and proclaim success. His supporters will declare their undying devotion. What more do you want?

  64. 64
    opiejeanne says:

    John, I’m sorry about your vacation being ruined but I’m really sad about your garden. You’ve got a big heart, offering to shelter people who can’t afford a hotel.

  65. 65
    Cat48 says:

    @TenguPhule: Really, Mittens, maybe u could tell the Orange Guy in Charge.

  66. 66
    Suzanne says:

    I have only lived through one hurricane, and it was when I was a kid. So I didn’t have to do any of the cleanup. Never mind. It was still terrible, and I remember having to take a bath in the sink. I hope all Juicers stay safe.

    I’d be lying if I said that I would not find it just a little bit funny if Pat Robertson got smote, though.

  67. 67
    Mike J says:

    @Suzanne: I sent two boats and a helicopter.

  68. 68
    columbusqueen says:

    I can put up a few juicers on my couches, but Columbus is probably too far away to be practical. Still, the offer’s there. Stay safe, all.

  69. 69
    Citizen Alan says:

    @TenguPhule:

    He related the story of how he bought his “first house” and was shocked to realize that of his $246 monthly mortgage payment, $241 went toward interest.

    Did this dumb fuck seriously not even bother to look at his amortization statement that clearly showed that early payments go primarily to interest and that the interest-to-principal ratio goes down over the life of the loan? Did George Romney raise an absolute moron?

  70. 70
    Citizen Alan says:

    @MagdaInBlack:

    This is witchcraft. These ignorant peasants are literally practicing witchcraft in the name of the Lord. I hope that hurricane scours Regents U down to the bedrock.

  71. 71
    opiejeanne says:

    @Citizen Alan: I think it’s along the lines of having no idea how most of us live, like one of the presidents not knowing what a gallon of milk cost. Was that Poppy Bush? Or being amazed by the bar code scanner because they hadn’t been in a grocery store in years.

    I no longer know what a gallon of milk costs either, but back then I did because my kids went through a lot of it.

  72. 72
    opiejeanne says:

    @Citizen Alan: What Pat did there was not theologically sound practice. I think it might fall under “tempting God” which is a thing we are not supposed to do. I agree with you, vindictive Methodist that I am, that I hope his crappy college gets destroyed.

  73. 73
    Steeplejack (phone) says:

    @opiejeanne:

    I think Mitt is lying in a failed attempt to sound “folksy” and to propagate the stupid Republican deficit lie of equating the federal budget with your family checkbook. No way that future vulture capitalist Mitt didn’t know the value of every one of his dollars and where they were going.

    Hey, all you people who shrink from “deficit spending”? Don’t get a mortgage. Don’t get a car loan. It’s deficit spending!

  74. 74
    MagdaInBlack says:

    @opiejeanne:
    The old school god he believes in tends toward vindictiveness…..

  75. 75
    VOR says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    That’s the big worry. That it either, because of the high pressure system, either stalls just off the coast and churns for several days at Cat 4 and just picks up and dumps water over North Carolina and parts of South Carolina and Virginia or that it makes land fall, reduces to Cat 1 while still a large storm in size, and then stalls overland and just picks up and dumps water over North Carolina and parts of South Carolina and Virginia.

    That’s what Harvey did to Houston last year, stalled and dropped over 40 inches of rain over a 4 day period. Per Wikipedia: “Harvey caused at least 107 confirmed deaths: 1 in Guyana, and 106 in the United States. Total damage from the hurricane is estimated at $125 billion…”

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