Der Spiegel’s Editors Have Sussed Out The Trump Doctrine

Der Spiegel’s editors have sussed out the Trump Doctrine. That the President expects that he, and as an extension of himself the US, will be treated “fairly or else”. From Der Spiegel’s Klaus Brinkbaumer:

The most shocking realization, however, is one that affects us directly: The West as we once knew it no longer exists. Our relationship to the United States cannot currently be called a friendship and can hardly be referred to as a partnership. President Trump has adopted a tone that ignores 70 years of trust. He wants punitive tariffs and demands obedience. It is no longer a question as to whether Germany and Europe will take part in foreign military interventions in Afghanistan or Iraq. It is now about whether trans-Atlantic cooperation on economic, foreign and security policy even exists anymore. The answer: No. It is impossible to overstate what Trump has dismantled in the last 16 months. Europe has lost its protective power. It has lost its guarantor of joint values. And it has lost the global political influence that it was only able to exert because the U.S. stood by its side. And what will happen in the remaining two-and-a-half years (or six-and-a-half years) of Trump’s leadership? There is plenty of time left for further escalation.

Every Wednesday at 11:30 a.m., senior DER SPIEGEL editors gather to discuss the lead editorial of the week and ultimately, the meeting seeks to address the question: “What now?” Simply describing a problem isn’t enough, a good editorial should point to potential solutions. It has rarely been as quiet as during this week’s meeting.

Europe should begin preparing for a post-Trump America and seek to avoid provoking Washington until then. It can demonstrate to Iran that it wishes to hold on to the nuclear deal and it can encourage mid-sized companies without American clients to continue doing business with Iranian partners. Perhaps the EU will be able to find ways to protect larger companies. Europe should try to get the United Nations to take action, even if it would only be symbolic given that the U.S. holds a Security Council veto. For years, Europe has been talking about developing a forceful joint foreign policy, and it has become more necessary than ever. But what happens then?

The difficulty will be finding a balance between determination and tact. Triumphant anti-Americanism is just as dangerous as defiance. But subjugation doesn’t lead anywhere either – because Europe cannot support policies that it finds dangerous. Donald Trump also has nothing but disdain for weakness and doesn’t reward it.

Clever resistance is necessary, as sad and absurd as that may sound. Resistance against America.

Combine this with Chancellor Merkel’s recent statements,

as well her remarks which I wrote about here last May when describing how the President’s preferences had brought the American century to and end after 72 years.

The times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. I’ve experienced that in the last few days.

We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands.

and you can begin to see that Chancellor Merkel has fully realized that the US is, at best, an unreliable ally for the foreseeable future.

The outstanding question right now is what is Chancellor Merkel actually going to do. Will she be able to pull in French President Macron and leverage the EU as a counterweight? Does she have the political will, let alone political capital, to increase Germany’s defense sector spending to compensate for the vacuum being created from the President’s longstanding hostilities to America’s allies and partners and his belief that they are taking advantage of us, ripping us off, and laughing at us. Does she have the political capital within the EU to be able to get France and other EU member states to also step up their defense sector spending? And can she do this without making it look like she’s doing it to both oppose the President who doesn’t actually want a strong, unified EU as a counterweight and seem like she’s leading the way to appease the President’s oft stated, but largely inaccurate statements about NATO member spending. Can this be done as Britain lurches its way through Brexit? And can it be done while Putin continues his active measures campaign and cyberwarfare against the US, the EU, and other states?

Chancellor Merkel and President Macron have their work cut out for them. They and their teams have to quickly figure out how to navigate a rebalancing of both the global system and the Western Alliance that has underpinned it since the end of World War II. There is no doubt that the global system needs to be reconceptualized. That is needs to be rebalanced. That the post World War II and post Cold War system are out of date. The complication here, what really makes it a wicked problem, is that because of who the President is and what he beliefs and what his preferences are, this reconceptualization and rebalancing is not being done in a thoughtful and proactive way. It does not include discussions between allies, partners, and even peer competitors to work out the most feasible, acceptable, and suitable – even if it is not the most optimal (perfect) – solution to reconceptualizing and rebalancing the global system to meet the challenges of the 21st Century. Ordinarily everyone would expect the US to take a leading role in this process. Instead, because of the President’s preferences for bilateral relations and unilateral actions, the US has accelerated and precipitated the need for this process while abdicating its role within in it. America first increasingly looks like America alone. And America alone will be costly not just for Americans, but for the rest of the world as well. The price to be paid for Making America great again…

Open thread!

* One final point: I am actually working on, if by working on we mean trying to wrap my head around, a book on the Trump Doctrine. Which will likely be titled The Trump Doctrine. So if any of you who have written and published books have suggestions on how to get this thing published, feel free to shoot me an email. The longest thing I’ve written in over a decade of work for the military is the 60 page or so cultural assessment of the operational environment for the Levant plus Iran.






193 replies
  1. 1
    kindness says:

    Trumps biggest crap has been taken on America’s future with the rest of the world. No longer will another country feel that any treaty/agreement the US signs will be good for more than the length of time the then current inhabitant lives in the White House. Honestly I don’t blame them.

    Putin wins again. This is where I want to thank Jill Stein & all the ‘liberals’ who couldn’t hold their nose and vote for the Democratic candidate. Me? I was happy to vote for Hillary.

  2. 2
    Baud says:

    Europe should begin preparing for a post-Trump America and seek to avoid provoking Washington until then

    Bullshit if they think they can chicken out now and wait for a Dem president to cash in their chips.

    And fuck them for making me come within an inkling of appearing to side with Trump.

  3. 3
    Teddys Person says:

    Thanks so much for all your posts. They all help me make sense of the Trump chaos. Well, some of it anyway (the chaos not your posts).

  4. 4
    Annie says:

    The worst thing is that for Dolt45, “treated fairly” does not even mean fairness; it means “do what I say and kiss the hem of my garment while you do it.”

  5. 5
    Baud says:

    @kindness: As was I.

  6. 6
    jo6pac says:

    If the eu had any balls the would show Amerika the door and stay doing business Iran & Russia. Then again sadly they’ll fail into line and ruin their economy.

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

  7. 7

    Awww…When I saw the headline, I thought you would feature their latest cover!

  8. 8
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: I can add it if you like.

  9. 9
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @jo6pac:

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

    Then enjoy increasing irrevleance, because the Greens (in America) couldn’t organize a pissing contest.

  10. 10
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Updated with the image.

  11. 11
    waysel says:

    @kindness: As was I.

  12. 12
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    This entire post makes me want to weep as few other things have since election results came in on 08 November 2016.

    This is just devasting.

  13. 13
    Yarrow says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: The cover is amazing.

  14. 14
    Mary G says:

    Let’s ignore the troll.

    I thought the graphic Der Spiegel put on their cover was cool.

    Adam, predicting what’s going to happen is hard, so I admire you for trying. I’m sure Twitler’s action will have unanticipated consequences no one has even considered yet.

  15. 15
    piratedan says:

    well, maybe you need to reconsider naming it the Putin Doctrine, because in no way do I believe that DJT has a coherent formulated “vision”, he exists in a total narcissistic state, everything and I mean everything is about HIM, HIS FEELINGS and how he thinks any action might portray him in regards to satisfying his sponsor.

  16. 16
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @kindness:
    @Baud:

    I voted for Hillary in 2016 (twice!) without the slightest qualm. No nose-holding, no second-guessing. She was in every possible way the superior candidate.

  17. 17
    Teddys Person says:

    Someone needs to make a billboard out of that cover and plant it in Layfayette Square.

  18. 18
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @jo6pac:

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

    Your a moran.

  19. 19
    TenguPhule says:

    Every nation for itself.

    What could possibly go wrong go wrong?

  20. 20
    TenguPhule says:

    @jo6pac:

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

    You are a Russian and I claim my five pounds.

  21. 21
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Could you put up an image of the cover, please? TIA.

  22. 22
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @piratedan: Have you read my previous posts on this topic?

  23. 23

    @Baud: I don’t follow. If I ran another country I’d certainly be avoiding America where possible until a Democrat was back.

  24. 24
    Yarrow says:

    One final point: I am actually working on, if by working on we mean trying to wrap my head around, a book on the Trump Doctrine. Which will likely be titled The Trump Doctrine. So if any of you who have written and published books have suggestions on how to get this thing published, feel free to shoot me an email.

    You might look at the Sunday’s Writers In Our Midst threads. Some have addressed publishing issues. Maybe not so much for that type of book but you might find something that is helpful.

    On your book itself, isn’t it going to be kind of a short book since it’s going to say, “The Trump Doctrine: ‘Me, me, me, me, me, me, me, me, ME!” over and over?

  25. 25
    Betty Cracker says:

    If Trump’s odious, disgraceful presidency ends on a normal note, i.e., he is merely voted out after four years, and we go on as if his occupation of the Oval Office wasn’t an embarrassing aberration, it’s hard to see how America recovers its international standing, at least in our lifetimes.

  26. 26
    Barbara says:

    @Annie: It’s even worse than that. It means he has to see tangible proof that the other side is worse off. It definitely explains his plan for “reducing” drug costs — a win will be judged by whether others pay more. It’s no wonder he worships Putin.

  27. 27
    TenguPhule says:

    Clever resistance is necessary, as sad and absurd as that may sound. Resistance against America.

    I am not liking this being the Germany of 1929.

  28. 28
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: I already did. I updated the post with it.

  29. 29
    TenguPhule says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    If Trump’s odious, disgraceful presidency ends on a normal note, i.e., he is merely voted out after four years, and we go on as if his occupation of the Oval Office wasn’t an embarrassing aberration, it’s hard to see how America recovers its international standing, at least in our lifetimes.

    And if it doesn’t, things can easily slide into WW III.

  30. 30
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    @SiubhanDuinne:
    @Adam L Silverman:

    Thanks, Adam! That’s a terrific graphic.

  31. 31
    Greenergood says:

    Dear Mr Silverman – try and imagine what all this must mean for those of us who are undergoing the ridiculous situation of Brexit, where no one in Westminster knows what they’re doing – and then those of us here in Scotland, who are trying to escape Brexit and gain independence from the UK, and are seeing all the machinations of the ‘deep state’ and the MSM who are focused on thwarting any possibility of independence because Scotand ‘hosts’ the UK’s ‘independent’ nuclear ‘deterrent’ Trident submarines (opposed by 90% of the Scottish population), and also keeps the UK economy going because Scotland is where the UK’s oil comes from, that had been instrumental in keeping the UK economy from pretty much collapsing, especially when their banking establishments screw up on a regular basis.

  32. 32
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Yarrow: Thank you, you’ve been a tremendous help. We appreciate your support.//

  33. 33
    piratedan says:

    @Adam L Silverman: no, are you new here? ///////////////

  34. 34
    Baud says:

    @Major Major Major Major: The way it’s written (or translated), they are proposing to hold their fire against us until Trump is gone. That has the perverse effect of validating Trump’s view that aggressive action is the only way we won’t be viewed as weak.

  35. 35
    TenguPhule says:

    @Baud:

    Bullshit if they think they can chicken out now and wait for a Dem president to cash in their chips.

    And fuck them for making me come within an inkling of appearing to side with Trump.

    What’s best for them is no longer what’s best for us.

    We are watching the end of an age.

  36. 36
    Yarrow says:

    @Betty Cracker: Yep. We either deal with the traitors and the forces that got us to this point or we will not recover.

  37. 37
    Another Scott says:

    On the publishing thing, review the “Authors in our midst” threads. Lots of good pointers, and lots of good approaches, there.

    Good luck!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38
    khead says:

    It does not include discussions between allies, partners, and even peer competitors to work out the most feasible, acceptable, and suitable – even if it is not the most optimal (perfect) – solution to reconceptualizing and rebalancing the global system to meet the challenges of the 21st Century. Ordinarily everyone would expect the US to take a leading role in this process. Instead, because of the President’s preferences for bilateral relations and unilateral actions, the US has accelerated and precipitated the need for this process while abdicating its role within in it.

    This seems a bit…… pollyannish wth respect to the USA (post WWII to Trump). I’m not sure how many “allies, partners and even peer competitors” we’ve actually given a shit about that didn’t serve our interests.

  39. 39
    TenguPhule says:

    @Baud:

    they are proposing to hold their fire against us until Trump is gone. That has the perverse effect of validating Trump’s view that aggressive action is the only way we won’t be viewed as weak.

    Welcome to total game theory.

  40. 40
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Betty Cracker: There’s no going back, only through. As I have explained more times than I can count in high level planning meetings with US military and diplomatic personnel: there is no reestablishing what was normal before whatever event in whichever country we’re concerned with has happened. There will be an establishment of a new normal. That may be better. It may be worse. But it won’t be what was the minute before event X occurred.

  41. 41

    @Baud: it’s clearly not in their best interests to avoidably provoke us. And it wouldn’t help us either.

  42. 42
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @Major Major Major Major:
    I can understand why they’re doing it. But I hope they realize that it’s not just Trump that is the problem but the entire American rightwing. They’ve become corrupted and compromised, through their own actions and those of states like Russia. It could easily happen to Germany as well. I hope Europeans understand that the Republican party is not the entire US.

  43. 43
    Yutsano says:

    @jo6pac:

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

    This is your choice.

    This is your right.

    But if you don’t start trying for local and state offices, I reserve the right to mock you.

  44. 44
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: I thought the writers threads suggestion at least was helpful.

  45. 45
    Baud says:

    @Major Major Major Major: Then they have to keep on not provoking us after Trump is gone. Cuz the only Dem president who can take on all of Trump’s sin is a one-term Dem president.

  46. 46
    Ohio Mom says:

    @Yarrow: I remember their cover just after Trump was elected: a Trump fireball hurling straight to planet Earth.

    We can be shocked by what Trump and his administration does, but never surprised, everyone knew how terrible he was, and would be, long before he was sworn in.

  47. 47
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Baud: That seems to be the view of the UK Government too, based on BoJo’s statement to the House of Commons the day after Trump tore up the deal.

    Of course this might be for public consumption while the experts scratch their heads for an alternative – if there is one.

    The problem for the Tories is that a lot of their backbenchers actually agree with Trump’s action. He must have got fed up with all the carping from his own side about Britain staying in the deal because, at one point, he snapped at one of his fellow Tories something to the effect that if he had a better idea to stop Iran getting the Bomb he’d like to hear it, adding that he could forget bombing as all the experts say it wouldn’t work.

  48. 48
    AliceBlue says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:
    While driving around doing errands today, I was stopped behind a car with a “Neither One in 2016” bumper sticker. I wanted to rear end it so badly.

  49. 49
    DocSardonic says:

    @jo6pac: Sometimes it is better to be silent and be thought a fuckwit, than engage ones keyboard and remove all doubt. Pie is fabulous, please do enjoy yours.

  50. 50
    TenguPhule says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    it’s clearly not in their best interests to avoidably provoke us.

    Which would give Trump more cause for declaring martial law and drumming up aggression against other countries.

    The EU is finding itself in Britain’s and France’s shoes in 1926, they’re nowhere close to ready to deal with a hostile US and all the forces it controls.

  51. 51
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    Which will likely be titled The Trump Doctrine. So if any of you who have written and published books have suggestions on how to get this thing published,

    While I have “written and been published” (long story)(not a book)(never paid) I just want to say that “The Trump Doctrine” is a shit title. May I suggest something more accurately descriptive and poetic? Something like,

    “lsdezhtzlshzl;SKhnZA WRhZAWROhAWRik!!!!!!!”

  52. 52
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    Let’s see – purity-pony is to horse as veal is to beef, right? I’ve heard interesting things about horsemeat. Fire up the bone saws! Purity-pony parmigiana comin’ up!

  53. 53
    debbie says:

    I needed Google Translate to tell me what was in Der Spiegel’s tweet. I love the smooth transition from Trump’s damage to easy hotel room break-in instructions.

    The new MIRROR is here! The title article is about the serious damage that US President Trump has inflicted on the transatlantic relationship. Also in the magazine: How easy it is to break into hotel rooms. Tomorrow at the kiosk, digital now here:

  54. 54

    @Baud: you’ve lost me again. When the US has a government that Germany can do difficult things with again, they will. In the meantime, as a rational actor, Merkel is not going to do something that will not benefit her now or in the future.

  55. 55
    Baud says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    My issue is with the word “provoke.” I don’t read it as synonymous with “cooperate with.”

  56. 56
    TS (the original) says:

    @Betty Cracker: A distinct lack of trust, regardless as to who is the President. I have no doubt trump’s view is to partner with Putin and “rule the world”, ignoring all and anything that happens to anyone other than white folks.

    His fantasy is being able to get the adoring loving crowds anywhere he goes rather than have to go to the boondocks every other week for the adulation. He can do this via fear and force – as any dictator will tell him.

  57. 57
    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes says:

    @🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷:

    This ends with Republican voters in the South and Midwest being forced by UN blue helmets to go to theaters to watch video of American military and paramilitary atrocities committed on American citizens during the Third World War.

  58. 58
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Adam L Silverman: It’s true that nothing ever really regains its previous state, but I was under the impression we weathered the GWB presidency rather well. We were still trusted by allies, thought to be credible while engaging in treaty negotiations. etc. I’ve gotta think following Obama with this goddamned fool has more severe consequences unless there’s a de-Trumpification.

  59. 59
    Ruckus says:

    @Yutsano:
    Mocking is due now.
    There is no there to the greens, other than fatalistic ideals that sound good and yet have no venue of reality. Being a citizen takes effort, understanding of what is and what is possible – in all aspects of humanity, not just in a pot addled dream.

  60. 60
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Greenergood: I’m aware. I lived in Scotland from 1992 through 1995 and, to be honest, didn’t want to come back to the US when I did. I love the place and think of it as a second home. If I was advising the Scottish government my recommendations would be the following:
    1) Use whatever leverage you have to exercise an internal to the UK veto over Brexit. As in Scotland refuses to comply with the vote as this is not in the best interest of its people. Dare Westminster to present the Queen with the reality that she may lose part of her kingdom if this goes through.
    2) Make preparation to secede from the UK and declare independence and form a Celtic Union with the Republic of Ireland. Be prepared to nationalize the North Sea platforms and take and hold the various British bases on Scottish soil.

    You all have leverage if you choose to use it. The question is does your leadership have the vision to recognize and use that leverage to achieve the best outcome for Scotland and its citizens?

    If you’ve not seen it, here’s my Brexit post:
    https://www.balloon-juice.com/2016/06/24/through-the-looking-glass-hope-is-not-a-strategy/

  61. 61
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @piratedan: I’ve lurked a bit, first time commenter…//

  62. 62
    debbie says:

    Adam, I’ve been out of publishing since the mid-1990s, but if you aren’t interested in self-publishing and instead want to submit your manuscript yourself (rather than find an agent), I’d suggest one of two things:

    1) Go to the reference section of your library and roam through “Literary Marketplace” (in the reference section). It’s published every year and includes all publishers. There’s a section that breaks publishers down by category, like current events, military, etc.
    2) Go to your local bookstore and check out the sections where your book would be placed. Note those publishers and solicit them.

    ETA: Your subject matter, though icky and disgusting, is current, and so almost any general publishing house might be worth approaching.

  63. 63
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @TenguPhule: States don’t have friends, they have interests.

  64. 64
    Annie says:

    @khead:
    But that’s why the Western alliance worked — because it was structured so that it was in everyone’s interest to work with other countries. We didn’t have to be sentimental about them, just deal with them.

  65. 65
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Yarrow: I’m not sure anyone wants me to turn this into a bodice ripper.

  66. 66
    Gelfling 545 says:

    @Yarrow: I was thinking that an expanded title could be The Trump Doctrine: What’s in It for Me? Because that is Trump’s sole interest and motivation.

  67. 67
    germy says:

    Deep dive tk, but here is the 1910 census showing Kelly's great-grandfather Giuseppe Pedalino and his second wife Concetta. (Kelly's great-grandma died in 1898.)

    He was a wagon driver.

    She was illiterate and could not speak English 10 years after arrival.

    #resistancegenealogy pic.twitter.com/N9AfuLNvb1— Jennifer Mendelsohn (@CleverTitleTK) May 11, 2018

  68. 68
    debbie says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    We don’t. BELIEVE ME!

  69. 69
    Ruckus says:

    @DocSardonic:
    Like Button. Pressed!

  70. 70

    @🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷: Then enjoy increasing irrevleance, because the Greens (in America) couldn’t organize a pissing contest.
    …after a kegger.

  71. 71
    Baud says:

    One thing Germany could do to earn the gratitude of loyal Americans is to get Deutsche Bank to disclose all their dealings with Trump and his associates.

  72. 72

    @Baud: ah, I see what you mean now. They might need a better English-language line editor.

  73. 73
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Greenergood: Scotland gaining independence would NOT lead to you escaping Brexit. Nicola tried that on almost immediately after the referendum result was announced. She went to Brussels where she was politely told an independent Scotland could take its place in the queue.

    There are too many EU nations with separatist movements for them to want to be seen rewarding such movements; so Scotland would be a small country trying to make its own way in the world with no established central bank or financial/monetary system and a very dodgy economy.

  74. 74
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: I thought it already was, what with Trump and all the pron stars.

  75. 75
    Baud says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I hope that’s all it is.

  76. 76
    piratedan says:

    it is true Adam, we are thru the looking glass here and will need to build new standards and new relationships, that is all providing that non-fascists wrest control of the reigns of power in this country once again

    In a way, it’s going to perhaps mean that we see ‘political” growth for some existing actors and perhaps some new entities projecting their desires regionally if not globally, say India, Japan, Australia, Brazil? geographic spheres of influence? Do we see a renewal of the rivalry between China and Russia?

    Whole lotta questions and a whole lotta uncertainty… and that doesn’t even cover the likely upheaval here, even if the Dems take down the newly fascist revanchist GOP, what follows in its wake?

  77. 77

    @Adam L Silverman: some of us write sci-fi/fantasy/weird too!

  78. 78
    Gelfling 545 says:

    @TenguPhule: what’s best for them would also be best for us and none of us is likely to get it with a madman in power. They may have alternatives and no one can fault them taking them whereas we’re pretty much sunk.

  79. 79
    gene108 says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    America cannot recover its international standing, until there are fundamental changes in the Republican Party, because any Republican President would have gotten us out of the Iran deal, for example.

    And I don’t see that happening. The Republican Party is the party most white people vote for and as long as Republicans have a stranglehold on the majority of the majority demographic they will be hard to beat on a large enough scale to force change.

  80. 80
    Mnemosyne says:

    @debbie:

    Echoing what Debbie said — look at who published books on similar subjects that you thought were good and query them. Yes, you’ll have to write a query letter. It sucks, but it’s pretty much inevitable with nonfiction.

    Don’t forget about the big university presses, like U of Chicago. They have pretty good reach as well. Stay away from Regnery. 🤪

  81. 81
    Mary G says:

    @AliceBlue: Ugh. I was reading the WaPo’s latest giant article on “what Trump voters in the Midwest think” and getting so angry at all the “I’m not a racist, but I hated Obama” quotes that I wanted to buy a ticket to Iowa and punch a few of them out.

    Your situation reminds me of the great scene from “Fried Green Tomatoes” where the young girl steals Kathy Bates’ parking spot and when she protests, says “we’re just younger and faster,” whereupon Kathy bashes into their car, saying “I’m older and I have more insurance.”

  82. 82
    Yarrow says:

    @Sloane Ranger: Agreed. Scotland as its own country isn’t going to be well received by the EU.

  83. 83
    Ruckus says:

    @Betty Cracker:
    Well….
    drumpf has pissed off pretty much everybody except those that have been able to use his craven stupidity to their advantage, NK, Vlad….. That’s about it. GWB didn’t alienate all but 2 countries in the world. In 8 yrs he didn’t manage that. drumpf has done that in less than 1 1/2 yrs. So if you are wondering why not elect a dictator to run a democracy, this is the reason.

  84. 84
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @AliceBlue:

    I would have helped cover your vastly-inflated auto insurance premiums.

  85. 85
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Thank you for your support!//

  86. 86
    TenguPhule says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    but I was under the impression we weathered the GWB presidency rather well.

    Not really. The first cracks were made there. The termites appointed by his regime of error into the federal government quietly ate their way higher up the foodchain and are now delivering all the wonderful presents that Darth Cheney sowed so long ago.

    President Obama did his best to paper over the damage, but the eggshell never uncracked itself.

  87. 87
    efgoldman says:

    @jo6pac:

    I voted Green and will do so in the future

    Fuck you
    You probably think you are the solution, but you are the problem. I hope you’re happy you putthat WEeasel Faced buffoon in the WH.
    Lemme’ guess: You are white, male, with a comfy life style.
    In case you missed it the first time, FUCK YOU!

  88. 88
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Hey, Adam McKay won himself an Oscar by figuring out how to sex up explanations of the financial crisis. Don’t knock it until you try it.

  89. 89
    TenguPhule says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    States don’t have friends, they have interests.

    Sufficiently advanced Nations can have both.

  90. 90
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Betty Cracker: Pretty much.

  91. 91
    Yutsano says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I don’t think academic journals work like that…

  92. 92
    TenguPhule says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’m not sure anyone wants me to turn this into a bodice ripper.

    You have to cater to that all important female purchasing demographic.

  93. 93
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: @Mnemosyne: Yeah, good point! And this story has Playboy Playmates and p0rn stars, a sexy attorney, and a crazy over the top central character all ready to go.

  94. 94
    TenguPhule says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:

    …after a kegger.

    I am given to understand that they object to booze on the grounds that it exploits the long oppressed common starches.

  95. 95
    TenguPhule says:

    @gene108:

    America cannot recover its international standing, until there are fundamental changes in the Republican Party, because any Republican President would have gotten us out of the Iran deal, for example.

    We can have a Democratic America or we can have a Republican party.

    We can’t have both.

  96. 96
    TenguPhule says:

    @Ruckus:

    GWB didn’t alienate all but 2 countries in the world.

    Not for lack of trying.

  97. 97
    les says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’m not sure anyone wants me to turn this into a bodice ripper.

    Me, me, pick me!!

  98. 98
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @debbie: I’ve had tremendous difficulty getting traction in the past with self submissions. Even when very senior people that published with those publishers did the intro. My stuff tends to be met with initial excitement and then pencil whipped around until dead with the argument of “We don’t know which unit to run this through, it could be IR, it could be polisci, it could be military, it could be crim, etc, etc, etc.. Therefore we cannot go forward at this time.” This is why I’ve published nothing other than two requested by editors book reviews since 2009 and just done all my work as internal to the Army, DOD, and/or other US government agencies staff product.

  99. 99
    Cermet says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Are you unhinged? Those actions taken with no agreements or careful considerations followed by thoughtful negotiations is exactly a tRump methodology. Surely you jest with those absurd suggestions? Seize their nuke subs and bases? Really? That would be putin’s wet dream for the UK.

  100. 100
    B.B.A. says:

    So Russians have kompromat on Trump, Trump had kompromat on the NY AG, the AG has god-knows-what on everybody else in the state…

    Does anyone have anything on the Russians, or are they at the top of this sordid blackmail chain?

  101. 101
    TenguPhule says:

    @B.B.A.:

    Does anyone have anything on the Russians, or are they at the top of this sordid blackmail chain?

    They don’t care.

    Its why murder is such an obvious solution in that region of the world.

  102. 102
    Mary G says:

    The Hill has the latest hoocoodanode:

    Cities across the country are turning down the opportunity to host the 2020 Republican National Convention, where President Trump is expected to be nominated for a second term.

    The cities that have rejected hosting duties insist Trump and today’s divisive politics are not factors in their decisions. They instead cite high security costs and disruptions in the normal flow of business and traffic.

    But Trump is almost certainly a factor in some cities’ decisions to opt out.

    The Republicans are trying to spin it as sour grapes because cities are all run by Democrats, who hate Trump, and that security will be expensive because there will be so many protesters. I don’t buy it, since hotels and bars probably make quite a bit of money off conventions and protesters have to sleep and drink too.

    Only three cities are even in the running to host the GOP in 2020 — and only one, Charlotte, N.C., is public and open about its interest.

    “Sure, we want you to come! Just don’t tell anybody.” Sad!

  103. 103
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Gelfling 545: The working title is actually: I Will Be Treated Fairly or Else: The Trump Doctrine and the Future of American National Security Policy.

  104. 104
    TenguPhule says:

    @les:

    Me, me, pick me!!

    Are you volunteering as subject or delivery?

  105. 105
    TenguPhule says:

    @Mary G:

    and only one, Charlotte, N.C., is public and open about its interest.

    That place keeps coming up over and over again.

  106. 106
    TenguPhule says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The Trump Doctrine and the Future of American National Security Policy.

    Think you misspelled failure there.

  107. 107
    rikyrah says:

    This post is but another reason why those who put us in this position will NEVER BE FORGIVEN 😠😠

  108. 108
    debbie says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Were your other submissions as timely as this one?

    You could start local (or state-al). Take a look at #6 here and at the link to their submission guidelines.

  109. 109
    waysel says:

    @efgoldman: Where’s the damn “like” button in this hellhole?

  110. 110
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @Baud: What would you advise them to do? Trump is a volatile bully with no one to hold him back. I don’t blame our allies from playing it safe now in hopes that Americans will come to their senses and elect an intelligent President in 2020.

  111. 111
    Ruckus says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    People like to vote with all their own prejudices in full view, be it at the ballot box or in the way they see the world. (Take our resident green moron for example, massively apparent evidence to the contrary, he’s going to continue to vote as a moron, rather than do the work to make anything better) So many are going to look at a book by an expert, a book with backing for all it’s points and ideals as just plain wrong. And it’s going to be committeed to death before it ever sees a publish date. As your experience shows.
    I think you are going to have to do this yourself. It is entirely possible to self publish these days. It might not look like a masterpiece from S & S but the work is out there.

  112. 112
    maya says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’m not sure anyone wants me to turn this into a bodice ripper.

    Excuse me, but that is the trump doctrine!
    You might try Harlequin.com???

  113. 113
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I don’t think anyone wants this as an apocalyptic fantasy either.

  114. 114
    TenguPhule says:

    Trump outlines plan to lower drug prices, reneges on pledge to leverage Medicare

    Donald Trump’s long-awaited plan to bring down drug prices, unveiled today, will mostly spare the pharmaceutical industry he previously accused of “getting away with murder” and instead focus on increasing private competition and requiring more openness about costs.

    In Rose Garden remarks at the White House, Trump called his plan the “most sweeping action in history to lower the price of prescription drugs for the American people.” But it does not include his campaign pledge to use the massive buying power of the government’s Medicare program to directly negotiate lower prices for seniors.

    Much ado about bullshit.

    Instead, the administration will pursue a raft of old and new measures intended to improve competition and transparency in the notoriously complex drug pricing system. Those include a proposal requiring drugmakers to disclose the cost of their medicines in their television advertisements. Health Secretary Alex Azar said the Food and Drug Administration would immediately examine requiring that information in TV ads.

    The proposals also include banning the pharmacist “gag rule,” which Trump said prevents druggists from telling customers about lower-cost options so they can save money, and speeding up the approval process for over-the-counter medications so patients can buy more drugs without prescriptions.

  115. 115
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Adam, sorry but all the recent opinion polls show that Scots would vote to keep the Union in any 2nd referendum. The SNP know that, they lost their overall majority in the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Tories are resurgent. There is no way they have the political support to do what you suggest.

    Also I see no way the Irish Government would be interested in forming any sort of political union with a newly independent Scotland given that this would further complicate the border issue, which is complicated enough already!

    To repeat what an audience member said on Question Time yesterday “Why did nobody talk about the border issue during the Referendum?”

    Actually they did but nobody heard them above the screams about job stealing, benefits grabbing immigrants!

  116. 116
    Ruckus says:

    @waysel:
    You have to do it yourself.
    Like Button Pressed!
    That’s how easy it is.

    ETA Of course in the case of EFG it helps to say it a bit better.
    Like Button Fucking Pressed!!

  117. 117
    TenguPhule says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I don’t think anyone wants this as an apocalyptic fantasy either.

    27% not included.

  118. 118
    waysel says:

    @Ruckus: Fucking thanks.

  119. 119
    Mike in NC says:

    Have any of you watched the Norwegian show “Occupied” on Netflix? The premise is that in the near future, Norway is occupied by Russia on behalf of the European Union, due to the fact that the newly elected environmental friendly Norwegian government has stopped the all important oil- and gas-production in the North Sea. America is energy independent and has basically withdrawn from world affairs.

  120. 120
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Mnemosyne: I actually know a ton about publishing. I’ve served as a paid editorial reviewer for a number of prominent academic publishing houses over the years. What I also have is a ton of experience having my stuff being pencil whipped between sections until it dies because no one will touch it. Usually because what I’m proposing is well left of boom.

  121. 121

    @Ruckus:

    GWB didn’t alienate all but 2 countries in the world.

    Yeah, actually he did; not the extent Trump has in a shorter amount of time, but he did. Our standing in the world in 2008 was in almost as big a shithole as our economy was.

  122. 122
    Ryan says:

    You know, if Obama hadn’t made so many speeches in Germany, we wouldn’t have any of these problems. Trump’s middle finger is really aimed at Obama you know.

    https://lobelog.com/pew-survey-global-views-of-obama-remain-positive/

  123. 123
    Ruckus says:

    @waysel:
    You are fucking welcome!

    And thanks for the LOL.

  124. 124
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Seems like it already is.

    I do think last week’s, or possibly the previous week’s, writers thread was about publishing. I have skimmed them in the past and seen discussions of publishing.

  125. 125
    Mike in NC says:

    @Mary G: Assuming Trump remains in office until 2020, the Republican National Convention will be held at Mar-A-Lago and the US taxpayer will foot the bills. Winning!

  126. 126
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cermet: I don’t believe I’m unhinged.

  127. 127
    MoxieM says:

    @🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷: Yeah “they” in the form of reasonably intelligent, informed lefty (but not Die Linke Partei) regular folks are extremely aware of both what is happening here in the US, and what is happening there.

    What I’m not convinced of is if (well this is Germans in particular) have a sense of the scale of American potential voting & corruption, e.g., the NRA as a political lobby. And similarly, I don’t think we have much of a grasp of how quickly, and how badly, things are deteriorating there especially in the former East, in terms of reactionary politics and a swing towards violent expression thereof.

    … I’m basing this on lots of conversations with my kid & her BF who were here for a few weeks just now. They live in Northern Germany; he’s a native. We did a lot of political yakking, as we do …

  128. 128
    Yarrow says:

    @Sloane Ranger: It’s interesting that Alex Salmond has a show on Russia Today.

    How’s the People’s Vote group doing? I saw Patrick Stewart is supporting it.

  129. 129
    NotMax says:

    Suggested alternate title:

    Trump: Is there a doctrine in the house?

    Only half-joking about that one.

  130. 130
    Baud says:

    @NotMax: Happy 🎂🎈🎉 day!

  131. 131
    kindness says:

    One of the major problems the US faces is that the Republican Party has changed. It was always xenophobic and right wing but it has progressed to openly racist and fascist (for all practical purposes). It has done this because the party is controlled by very small number of very wealthy individuals who are obsessed with having their way. Money. Money has done in the party. Now we as individuals can’t change that. I don’t even know where to begin with the lower rung rubes who’ve taken up the tribal calling and vote for them. I have found myself loosing faith. But then I remember if I gave up, Trump (Putin really) would be the winner. I don’t know how to take money out of politics. We can’t while the Supreme Court consists of the right wingers that sit in the majority. But we can’t let despair get the better of us.

    I lived through Reagan by living outside of politics. I voted but led my life as I chose. Easy to do here in N. Cal while Jerry was still alive. I lived through Dubya because at that point I was invested in the system. Had kids. Couldn’t live apart from it and worked to overcome right wing hysterics. Now with Trump……I think we all need to learn how to build guilotines and start making them.

  132. 132
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @debbie: Yes. I got back from Iraq with over 200 transcribed pages of in depth interviews with elites and notables – sheikhs, imams, retired/former military leaders, local officials, etc – that provided important new insight into how the Iraqis understood what was happening to them. I submitted the first proposal before I ever got back, with someone more senior making the introduction to the acquisitions editor. I was told that because we didn’t tape the interviews – because between me, the subject, and the interpreter (to make sure I didn’t miss anything because my Arabic wasn’t that good) all the tapes got us were half a sentence of me, followed by the interpreter talking over me, followed by the subject talking over the interpreter, followed by half a sentence of the subject, rinse and repeat – that this couldn’t be published as an oral history. That got seconded by every major, top line publisher that had an oral history section that I was recommended to by senior folks. When I pitched to other publishers, for a non oral history, where senior people did the introductions for me, I got initial excitement, followed by whipping the thing from section to section until it died. When I had an acquisitions editor who knew me show interest, her boss stopped it. We still don’t know why. I got a journal article out of it, largely because the editors sought me out and asked for it. And, of course, I got internal to the government staff reports out of it.

    Let’s put it this way, this thing was so hot that it was flash trafficked back to State with an “Urgent Eyes Only Secretary of State” header in 2008 by one of my State Department contacts in Iraq. So it was high prioritied back to Condoleeza Rice, because it was so ahead of what we thought was going on, but despite that I can’t get it published. So it’s not going anywhere. Just sitting in a folder on my desktop.

  133. 133

    @NotMax: You get a pass on that on since it’s your b-day. Happy b-day.

  134. 134
    Ruckus says:

    @🐾BillinGlendaleCA:
    I’m not in any way trying to give GWB a pat on the back or a boost, he does not deserve it in any way, shape or form.
    But, let’s be a bit honest, drumpf has shown himself to be a far worse person and a far worse president than GWB. I still contend that while GWB was easily in the running to be named on any bodies list as in the worst 5 ever, drumpf has pushed him out of that possibility by being the 5 worst all by himself. It took a lot of lies, a massive asshole for VP and years for him to get there. drumpf managed to get there on Jan 20 2017 by about 2pm. And has only gotten worse. Every day is a horror show of bullshit, stupidity, craven assholeness, and amazement at the ability of the man to manage to fuck up every single day, more and worse than the last.
    As much as I hate fucking republicans, and I’d bet I do as much as anyone here, this current shit show is far worse than anything GWB did. And that includes two wars. A distinction I was hoping to never have to experience as the last one was more than bad enough.

  135. 135
    Citizen Alan says:

    @jo6pac:

    It’s a free country. You’re free to vote green. And I’m free to help you burn to death in a fire.

  136. 136
    Barbara says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Somebody publishes Andrew Bacevich. Just saying.

  137. 137
    khead says:

    @Annie:

    But that’s why the Western alliance worked — because it was structured so that it was in everyone’s interest to work with other countries. We didn’t have to be sentimental about them, just deal with them.

    As long as we get what we want. The trick has been to project the image of being magnanimous while looking out for ourselves. We’ve managed to do that for about 75 years. I’m surprised it lasted this long. See TenguPhule and others in this thread. This is the first time – at least in my lifetime – that we have decided to be giant open assholes about it. Ok, well, second time. Heh. Bush43 at least had enough sense not to blow up the economic framework as well. But make no mistake, we’ve been running the world since 1945.

    Also, I was trying to think of the last time the United States REALLY didn’t get what it wanted. Iran in 1979? Vietnam? Cuba? Help me out jackals.

  138. 138
    maya says:

    @Adam L Silverman: OK, I see you’ve expanded your working title:

    I Will Be Treated Fairly or Else: The Trump Doctrine and the Future of American National Security Policy.

    To suggest that trump has a cognitive, cohesive plan for anything other than his own personal gain, i.e.; financial and/or public adoration, is a couple of Brooklyn Bridges too far.
    What he usually means by being “treated fairly” has more to do with building codes and permit waivers on his Brand items across the globe than for anything involving US National Security. Especially since he has single-handedly tried to eviscerate just about every dept of our National Security in his pursuit of “loyalty”.
    Wasn’t it stated that the only book he ever read was, Mein Kompf? If that was true, you might want to start there for context.

  139. 139
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The working title is actually: I Will Be Treated Fairly or Else: The Trump Doctrine and the Future of American National Security Policy.

    This is a much more interesting title. I like it.

  140. 140
    Brachiator says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Great post, as usual.

    It is useful to note, however, that conservative media here and in Europe (the UK Daily Mail, for example,) are pushing hard the idea that he is the undisputed leader of the Free world, based on his handling of Iran and North Korea. This was also one of the themes of his recent appearance at a GOP political rally.

    Fox News, Clear Channel radio stations and Sinclair Broadcast Group used to regularly suppress any European assessment of Obama that was positive. Now, these same organizations are furiously suppressing any view of Trump that is not fawning approval.

    But the views of Merkel and others will leak out anyway. But the immediate danger is that a GOP Congress will work overtime to provide cover for Trump and will back self-defeating policies. As always, Putin will be pleased.

  141. 141
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @khead:
    I doesn’t have to be just an image. It can be for real. And I resent that insinuation that it was always just an image and not genuinely felt.

  142. 142
    Smiling Mortician says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Try Random House. Seriously. They publish left-of-boom on a fairly regular basis. And they like publishing political stuff. I know they publish both Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes . . .

  143. 143
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    @Mike in NC:

    Assuming Trump remains in office until 2020, the Republican National Convention will be held at Mar-A-Lago and the US taxpayer will foot the bills.

    Many, many people are saying Moscow wants to host the convention.

    Believe me. Believe me.

    AND MEXICO WILL PAY FOR IT!

  144. 144
    Yarrow says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Have you checked with the blog host? He seems to know a lot of people. Maybe he knows someone who has connections.

  145. 145
    Thoughtful David says:

    I don’t agree with the formulation of the Trump Doctrine as “Treat us fairly or else.” Unless you define “fairly” as “special.” The US has all along been treated fairly. Yes, maybe we paid more on defense, but we therefore got to call the shots, and that benefited us enormously. Our economy has not been disadvantaged. Our place in the world has not been disadvantaged.
    What the Trump Doctrine seems to me is to want all the same perks, but without having to pay for them, and instead getting them by bullying. That shit ain’t gonna float for long.

  146. 146
    Another Scott says:

    @Sloane Ranger: Agreed. Sturgeon was weakened, not strengthened, by the continued pressing for independence.

    May is between a rock and a hard place, even within her own party, about how to come up with a sensible Brexit. Since it’s an impossible task, it’s really hard to see it happening.

    Reuters (from this morning):

    […]

    But the lack of decision has coincided with growing calls for Britain to stay in the customs union with the EU, a move its supporters say could solve the problem of a new hard border with Ireland that could fuel sectarian violence.

    The House of Lords, sent a clear message to May in a series of votes on the EU withdrawal bill over the last three weeks, challenging her refusal to stay in the customs union and her plan to leave the EU’s single market.

    Some pro-EU Labour and Conservative lawmakers in the House of Commons hope they can muster enough support to prevent the government reversing those amendments in votes in the lower house, though their ability to do so is in doubt.

    “Parliament is finally taking control of Brexit and is seeing off a minority of ideologically driven hard Brexiteers,” Conservative lawmaker Anna Soubry said this week on Twitter.

    If the rebels are to have any chance of forcing May’s hand, the Labour Party would have back moves to stay in the customs union and single market. This means it would have to change its position and accept the continued free movement of people.

    Labour would like a new customs union that would allow Britain to break free from the EU’s state aid rules.

    The pressure is rising for Labour to change position.

    “Our region is an export powerhouse,” five Labour lawmakers from northern England wrote this week.

    “All of that could be at risk if we quit the EU customs union and the single market and are lumbered with new customs barriers, charges and unnecessary red tape.”

    It’s such a mess, and it’s clearly going to be a disaster, but none of the major party leaders in Parliament seem able or willing to take (metaphorical) bullet to keep it from happening.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  147. 147
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Yarrow: Yes, Salmond is very shifty on the subject.

    Patrick Stewart was one of the celebs who signed on for the People’s Vote campaign but it’s not getting a lot of purchase. To be honest feeling are still raw about the referendum with Brexiteers still openly triumphant and Remainers still bitter. There is very little support for deepening the divisions with a 2nd referendum. The debate has moved to trying to stay in the customs union.

    On a related topic, one of the pro-Brexit Groups, Leave.EU, has been fined £70000 by the Elections Commission for over-spending during the Referendum campaign and submitting inaccurate and incomplete returns. It will come as no surprise to learn that it was the one Nigel Farago was involved with.

  148. 148
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The other good thing about the self-publishing boom is that there are a lot of freelance editors floating around who could help you do a “developmental edit” to focus your book (since it sounds like that may be the problem — the publishers aren’t sure what to do with the draft since it’s hitting multiple areas).

    Make sure to find one who also offers proofreading/copyediting as a separate service. Just sayin’.

  149. 149
    Citizen Alan says:

    @Citizen Alan:

    And naturally, after 132 comments, the treasonous coward has nothing else to say.

  150. 150
    waysel says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Mother Jones? Rolling Stone?

  151. 151
    NotMax says:

    Oy gotenyu. The stupid, it burns. Severely.

    Iran’s supreme leader revealed on Wednesday an unpublicized letter sent recently by President Trump to countries in the Middle East, raising questions about how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came to know about private correspondence between the U.S. leader and his allies in the region.

    The day after Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, Khamenei sent a tweet that claimed Trump had written a letter to leaders of Persian Gulf Arab states “a few days ago” that demanded they do more in the region. “I spent $7 trillion and you must do something in return,” the Iranian leader claimed the letter stated.” Source

  152. 152
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So it was high prioritied back to Condoleeza Rice, because it was so ahead of what we thought was going on, but despite that I can’t get it published.

    Hate to say it, but your book didn’t fit the approved narrative, and that made it too much of a hot potato. You may be able to publish it in another 15 years as a Look at what we idiotically ignored at the time narrative.

  153. 153
    The Other Chuck says:

    @kindness:

    Trumps The Republican Party’s biggest crap has been taken on America’s future with the rest of the world

    FTFY. Took til now to realize “Country First” was describing Putin’s shopping list.

  154. 154

    @Adam L Silverman: Hey Adam, you might want to get in touch with Loomis over at LGM. He’s got a couple books out and working on a third and he’s not a complete asshole ;^)

  155. 155
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Barbara: Andrew Bacevich is a known quantity. For all the work I’ve done, I’m not.

  156. 156
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @maya: I’m not saying that he has anything coherent that he could delineate. I’ve been pretty clear on that in my Trump Doctrine posts.

  157. 157
    Aleta says:

    Keeping The Peace (It’s time for Europe to step forward and counter Trump’s Iran deal debacle).
    By Daryl G. Kimball (Executive Director of the Arms Control Association) writing at Fabian Society website.
    The Fabian Soc. is a leftwing UK think tank. The ACA is a private, non-profit membership organization dedicated to public education and support of effective arms control measures pertaining to nuclear, chemical, biological, and conventional weapons.

  158. 158
    ruemara says:

    @piratedan: I’m definitely not Adam, but I think you’re correct.

    @germy: But of course.

  159. 159
    Mary G says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Speaking as a big reader and once future editor before my health went farther down, I’m going to offer some unsolicited advice: your voice when you are serious is extremely academic and even didactic, and your paragraphs are wwaaayy tooooo loonggg.

    We know you have a sense of humor, use it in your writing! Avoid all the acronyms like the plague. Also, too, I imagine since you refuse even to post pictures of your dogs for us to view, something any other front pager in Balloon Juice could never get away with, you are not very out there on things like social media. No publisher will touch that with a ten-foot pole unless you have some other built-in audience you can bring that’s bigger than Balloon Juice. Do Twitter under a pseudonym. Start a YouTube channel if you’re good at things like that. A writer who doesn’t market himself at least as much as his writing just won’t get anywhere.

  160. 160
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Another Scott:Agree totally. I was writing a post saying some of the same things at the same time you were posting this.

    In a way I feel sorry for May how can you lead a party containing Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Peter Bone in any single direction over Brexit?

    The end result is going to be a fudge aimed at preventing a split rather than getting the best deal possible.

  161. 161
    Another Scott says:

    @Adam L Silverman: If it were easy, everyone would be a published author.

    HuffPo:

    Other rejection counts: Gone With the Wind, 38 times; Dune, 20 times; A Wrinkle in Time, 29 times; Lord of the Flies, 20 times; Kon Tiki, 20 times; Watership Down, 17 times; Jonathan Livingstone Seagull, 18 times; Chicken Soup for the Soul, 33 times; James Joyce’s The Dubliners, 22 times; Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, more than 100 times; MASH, 21 times.

    C.S. Lewis got 800 rejections, and Western writer Louis L’Amour 200. Even The Diary of Anne Frank got numerous rejections.

    I’ve been luckier, although my novel Hadrian’s Wall was rejected by just about everybody, including the house that eventually published it, HarperCollins. Different agent, different editor. You need the right person on the right day.

    As instructive as all this is, the odds of any author making it big remain very long, rejected or not. Nielson Bookscan reported in 2004 that of 1.2 million books tracked, only 25,000 — barely more than 2 percent — sold more than 5,000 copies.

    In 2006, Publisher’s Weekly said the average book sells less than 500 copies.

    Yeah, novels are different from what you’ve worked on. But that just means your task is tougher.

    If it’s important to you to get it published by a publisher, then you have to drop your shoulder and keep going.

    There’s nothing wrong with self-publishing, either, if you want to get it out there and get noticed. Your “oral history” thing would be valuable to historians (especially if it were a top hit in Google) and could be a marker for building interest in your Trump Doctrine opus.

    Capt. Mnemo’s idea about university presses is a good one.

    Good luck!

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (“And the ideas of a fictionalization are good, also too. Remember le Carre and Ian Fleming…”)

  162. 162
    debbie says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So it’s not going anywhere. Just sitting in a folder on my desktop.

    Based on what you’ve said, you ought to give self-publishing a shot.

  163. 163
    Kathleen says:

    @Yarrow: Tom Levenson would probably be a good resource because of the nature of your subject matter, which I’m think would be an academic approach targeting experts/educators?

  164. 164
    Jeffro says:

    @Another Scott: hadrian’s Wall is a really fun read, especially for folks interested in Roman-era Britain

  165. 165
    B.B.A. says:

    @Another Scott: “This is a work of friction. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, is entirely deliberate.”

  166. 166
    Kathleen says:

    @maya: Baudice ripping could be the new Baud Doctrine.

  167. 167
    Aleta says:

    @Sloane Ranger:Fwiw, Philip Stephens in the Financial Times said this as part of his (conservative) column. You understand him better than I do I’m sure.

    The first priority must be to hold together what is left of the nuclear agreement. The US may have reneged, but Europe and the rest of the international community can demonstrate that they are prepared to keep the bargain with Iran — the lifting of sanctions in return for nuclear compliance. European politicians have said they will seek an exemption for their companies from Mr Trump’s sanctions. They may need to go further. If the president insists on deploying US economic might to punish, say, German, French or British companies, Europe must retaliate. This is not about defending commercial interests, but about recognising that Iran will respect the deal only if gets promised sanctions relief. In the absence of exemptions, the EU should indemnify against the threat of US sanctions any of its businesses trading with Iran. The attempt to penalise European companies should be met also with offsetting penalties on US corporations. There would be a danger of tit-for-tat escalation, but if Europe is serious it will have to take risks. The second imperative is for European leaders to make it as clear as it is possible to make it that they would oppose vigorously any military strikes against Iran, and that the US would be debarred from using European bases in such a conflict. The Tehran regime is obnoxious. Its interventions in the region are destabilising. But the war sought by Israel and Saudi Arabia would be still more dangerous. Europeans should not draw comfort from the fact that Mr Trump’s decision has left them sitting in the same camp as China and Russia though some may recall that at the time of the Suez crisis in 1956 Washington lined up with Moscow formally to denounce Britain and France at the United Nations.

    There must, though, be food for serious thought here for Mr Trump’s fellow Republicans in Washington. How has the US managed so comprehensively to isolate itself among friends and allies and thus empower its adversaries? Enough really is enough.

  168. 168
    RepubAnon says:

    @Annie:

    The worst thing is that for Dolt45, “treated fairly” does not even mean fairness; it means “do what I say and kiss the hem of my garment while you do it.”

    Or in other words, imitate Mike Pence.

  169. 169
    mozzerb says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    1) Use whatever leverage you have to exercise an internal to the UK veto over Brexit. As in Scotland refuses to comply with the vote as this is not in the best interest of its people. Dare Westminster to present the Queen with the reality that she may lose part of her kingdom if this goes through.
    2) Make preparation to secede from the UK and declare independence and form a Celtic Union with the Republic of Ireland. Be prepared to nationalize the North Sea platforms and take and hold the various British bases on Scottish soil.

    Erm … far be it from me as an Englishman to advise the Scots, but I can’t believe you’re really saying what this sounds like.

    As far as 1) goes, well, fair enough. However, when push came to shove I doubt most Tory denizens of Westminster would actually be that bothered by the thought of losing Scotland (it would leave them with an inbuilt majority under current voting patterns), and what the Queen thought about it would not be a high priority.

    As for 2) … what the hell?!

    For a start, I’m not sure what you mean by a “Celtic Union” — if you mean a customs union, that couldn’t be done without Scotland joining the full EU version for the same reasons that are screwing up the Brexit negotiations over the status of Northern Ireland. If you mean some sort of formal joining, that doesn’t sound any more practical than the Brexiter dreamers ideas about a sort of Imperial Preference 2.0 as the answer to exiting the customs union and single market.

    As for “take and hold” the bases — I really hope that was a joke. What with — the 3rd Glasgow Rangers Supporters Light Infantry? Advising the Scots to basically kick off a small civil war over Brexit doesn’t sound like the most helpful advice I’ve ever heard.

  170. 170
    Sloane Ranger says:

    @Aleta: Thanks for this. I’m not surprised. The FT will always support business interests and they’ll be concerned about the effects on British companies who have already invested in Iran or were considering doing so.

    BoJo was asked about protecting UK businesses from possible legal jeopardy/sanctions by the US and said the Government would look at ways to protect them but wouldn’t be drawn on what what might entail.

  171. 171
    afanasia says:

    @TenguPhule: My father had a touching story about his Russian-born mother nailing a a dead owl she found in the woods to the door of a man who owed her money. He payed her. Not giving a damn what the neighbors think can be a tremendous advantage. (I have never shown up with anything but baked goods – I’m not advocating for that behavior.)

  172. 172
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Baud:
    Reality: The West as a group is dependent on American power, both hard and soft. America was easily the biggest force in setting up the post-WWII order that way. The West is now having to deal with a sudden loss of much of its power and influence, which was American power and influence. Neither France nor Germany is by itself a first-tier military or geopolitical power. This shit is coming down because Trump’s America is abandoning its post. The reality is that whatever they do they cannot afford to alienate Trump to the point that he becomes the leader of a hostile power. That his shtik incolves being wilfully unpredictable means they have to tread more carefully than they would like. This crisis in the West is all Trump’s fault, which means it is all America’s fault.

  173. 173
    Brachiator says:

    @Amir Khalid:

    The reality is that whatever they do they cannot afford to alienate Trump to the point that he becomes the leader of a hostile power.

    Some great points, but I don’t think that Trump has the brains to become the leader of a hostile power. Trump thinks like a 19th century leader, to the degree that he thinks at all.

    The sad thing is that instead of making America great again, he may in fact insure the collapse of the US as a significant power.

  174. 174
    Miss Bianca says:

    Adam, I am so, so psyched to hear that you are going to turn your ideas on the Trump Doctrine into a book. Good for you! Good for us too, I hope – as in, hope you keep using us as a forum for ’em – your ideas, I mean.

    My only experience with publishing is with academic presses, and I am sure with your credentials that you wouldn’t need any suggestiond from me on how to get noticed in that sphere!

  175. 175
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Sloane Ranger:

    Nigel Farago

    I approve of this typo.

  176. 176
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Brachiator:

    Some great points, but I don’t think that Trump has the brains to become the leader of a hostile power.

    He doesn’t have the brains for it, true. But there he is.

  177. 177
    Peale says:

    @Aleta: yep. I’ll agree that Europe is serious when it actually sanctions the US rather than sending support troops. My guess is that when push comes to shove, France and The UK will fall over themselves to drop bombs on Iran. But we’ll see.

  178. 178
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Mary G:

    Do Twitter under a pseudonym. Start a YouTube channel if you’re good at things like that.

    Given my work, this is a non starter.

  179. 179
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Another thought — start by writing a magazine article on the topic that could be expanded out into a book. Shop the article around and then, if it gets published, you’ll be more likely to draw and editor’s interest.

    Also, like I said above, see if there’s a freelance developmental editor in your field who can help you noodle the book before you start shopping it to publishers. Editors at publishing houses don’t have a lot of time to work with writers these days and want you to have a manuscript that’s pretty close to being publishable when you submit it.

  180. 180
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Miss Bianca: Highly unlikely to be good for me. Very likely to be painful, harmful, and damaging to me.

  181. 181
    Manyakitty says:

    @Gelfling 545: ooh, What’s In It For Me?; or the Trump Doctrine

  182. 182
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @mozzerb: I’m feeling particularly warlike and provocative this evening.

  183. 183
    Amir Khalid says:

    @mozzerb:
    Rangers just appointed Steven Gerrard manager. He’s just had a successful year as Liverpool’s under-18 manager. If anyone can whip the 3rd Glasgow Rangers Supporters Light Infantry into shape, it’s Stevie G.

  184. 184
    Chet Murthy says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    If Trump’s odious, disgraceful presidency ends on a normal note, [….] it’s hard to see how America recovers

    FTFY. If we don’t ferret out, prosecute, and imprison the traitors, they’ll just try again. And next time, they might not be so incompetent. Or allies might not be so stalwart — some of them might have been compromised too. This is an existential moment for our Republic. We have to clean this up (near-)completely.

  185. 185
    KSinMA says:

    @Adam L Silverman: That’s why you need an agent, imho. It’s no harder to get an agent interested than it is to get a publisher.

  186. 186
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @KSinMA: If you have any recommendations, please shoot me an email.

  187. 187
    Sherparick says:

    @jo6pac: I am sure all immigrants losing status, in detention, & deported appreciate your purity. The Green party can’t elect a dogcatcher. If you don’t like your local Democrat Senator, Congressperson, state senator, or state representative, or county supervisor – run against them in the primary.

  188. 188
    Ruckus says:

    @Brachiator:

    he may in fact insure the collapse of the US as a significant power.

    He may?
    I’m struggling with the concept you’ve put forward that he possibly won’t fuck this up. There isn’t any other thing he’s done in his life that he hasn’t fucked up. Not one. He’s not going to pass on keeping that record intact.

  189. 189
    Chet Murthy says:

    @khead:

    As long as we get what we want. The trick has been to project the image of being magnanimous while looking out for ourselves.

    Sorry, but NO. The Western Alliance was first and foremost about ensuring that war didn’t happen in Europe and the Far East. That used-to-be belligerents would instead become peaceful trading partners, and thereby end up unable to contemplate war with each other. And a critical part of that was for the US to be ones to hold and wield military power in those areas. Sure, with our allies (those former belligerents) helping. But it was part of the plan that we did the heavy lifting, thereby making it impossible for them to go to war with each other again.

    And IT WORKED. Until now, when Shitlord wants to rip it all down.

  190. 190
    Brachiator says:

    @Ruckus:

    he may in fact insure the collapse of the US as a significant power.

    He may?

    Yes. He may.

    So, I never said that Trump won’t fuck things up. He ain’t gonna be around forever, and the scars he leaves behind may not be permanent.

  191. 191

    It would be inaccurate, and an insult to the English language, to use the term “doctrine” to describe whatever-the-hell Trump is doing. He doesn’t have a clue. “The Trump Shambles” might be a better description.

  192. 192
    Doug says:

    “Does she have the political will, let alone political capital, to increase Germany’s defense sector spending to compensate for the vacuum being created from the President’s longstanding hostilities to America’s allies and partners … Does she have the political capital within the EU to be able to get France and other EU member states to also step up their defense sector spending?”

    I know a few things here, from engaging with Germany for the last 20 years or so, and from living among people who work in German foreign policy.

    First and foremost, many, many, many people have underestimated Angela Merkel. They all have one thing in common: not one of them is a four-term German Chancellor.

    Second, when Merkel says, “The times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. I’ve experienced that in the last few days. We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands.” know that (1) this is a theme that has come up often in the past, and (2) her statement will have been staffed out and consensused to a fare-thee-well. Political Berlin has been working on what to do without/against America since about November 10, 2016. I can vouch for a couple days of utter shell-shock right after the election, but after that people got to work on wtf to do. They have been working on this problem not because they want to (by and large, with a few exceptions) but because they have to.

    Third, Adam, I think your position may be leading you to overestimate the importance of defense budgets and military power. Operating independently of America is not going to require matching the size of the US defense establishment. Europeans going their own way is not going to mean replicating US policies, preferences and choices but with European staff and resources; it is going to mean making different choices. The problem you anticipate is not going to arise because people will be starting from different premises. (Other problems will arise, of course.)

    Adam, drop me a line if you want to talk Germany.

  193. 193
    dopey-o says:

    @TenguPhule:every nation for themselves.

    and god against them all!

Comments are closed.