Oklahoma or Arizona, what does it matter

Democrats can win everywhere! Arizona 8 is +13 R Cook PVI but…..

The special election for an Arizona House seat is in a statistical dead heat in the final week of the race, according to a poll released on Monday.

A poll from Emerson College found physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Let’s raise some more money for Tipirneni.

Goal Thermometer

69 replies
  1. 1
    oatler. says:

    “Alex, what is Three Dog Night?”

  2. 2
    Doug! says:


    Almost did “It’s A Long Way to Tipirneni”.

  3. 3
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Doug!: I’m glad you didn’t, because that would have been unforgivable.

  4. 4
    Gin & Tonic says:

    Anyway, people say “statistical dead heat” as if that means something extra. As opposed to what, a probabilistic dead heat? A topological dead heat?

  5. 5
    Yutsano says:

    This is gonna need a massive GOTV push. But oh man if this one flips…the Republicans are in MASSIVE trouble.

  6. 6
    kindness says:

    This morning the WaPo (I think it was the WaPo) was saying Lesko was 8 points up. I would love the Democratic candidate to win mind you.

  7. 7
    Kay says:

    This would be nice:

    President Donald Trump has an upside-down 34%-61 approval rating in New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University Poll released today.
    The poll says that Democrats have a 19-point advantage over Republicans in a generic House ballot, which has the potential to “switch all five congressional seats currently held by Republicans” in New Jersey.
    “This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two – or maybe even zero – Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

    All gone :)

  8. 8

    @Yutsano: That was pretty much my thought reading this too :)

  9. 9
    Baud says:

    @Gin & Tonic: A dry dead heat?

  10. 10
    Baud says:

    @Kay: Maybe punishing Blue States with higher taxes wasn’t such a genius move?

  11. 11
    efgoldman says:


    Republicans are in MASSIVE trouble.

    Looks like a mirror image of 2010.
    Once the momentum gets rolling…..

  12. 12
    r€nato says:

    This is the House district formerly held by ultra-creepy Christianist asshole Trent Franks. It was custom gerrymandered to be very safe for someone like Debbie Lesko, who is well-known as a state legislator in this area and checks all the right-wing boxes that should make her a lock. Tipirneni, OTOH, is a newcomer. I don’t think she’s ever run for office before.

    If Dr. Tipirneni – and her “un-American”-sounding name – wins or even comes close to winning… that is very, very bad news indeed for Republicunts and indicative of the magnitude of the blue tsunami that may swamp them all this fall. It can’t be emphasized too strongly how safe this district ought to be for Republicans. It’s very white, very middle to upper middle class, somewhat heavy LDS in certain areas. Democrats just don’t win in the west Valley. I haven’t looked at the legislative district map, but I’d be surprised if there’s a single D in the state legislature from this area.

  13. 13
    Yutsano says:

    @efgoldman: I’m looking at the Senate now. It’s entirely possible not only could all the Democrats keep their seats we could gain at least three more in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee. Hell considering how unpopular Tailgunner Ted is in Texas even that might go.

  14. 14
    marduk says:

    Holy crap if this vote is even near that close this is insane. That’s the Sun City district, the absolute wingnut armpit of the universe.

  15. 15
    efgoldman says:


    Maybe punishing Blue States with higher taxes wasn’t such a genius move?

    They were always going to stay blue. It’s places like the white suburbs in NJ and PA that will push the house left.

  16. 16
    Doug! says:


    If the Dems lose by 8, that’s a great result.

  17. 17
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Gin & Tonic:
    Sounds punchier than “more or less tied”.

  18. 18
    Yarrow says:

    @Yutsano: Ted Cruz is even unpopular with a lot of Republicans in Texas. Not all of them and maybe not enough, but really, no one likes Ted Cruz. His inherent unlikability doesn’t help him in a tougher election year, especially against a charismatic, good looking guy like Beto O’Rourke who is working hard all across the state.

  19. 19
    Baud says:


    the absolute wingnut armpit of the universe.

    Sadly, the wingnut universe has many arms.

  20. 20
    germy says:

    A good cause:

    I’d like to see him defeat Faso.

  21. 21
    Amir Khalid says:


    … really, no one likes Ted Cruz.

    Remember that photo of Cruz’s own kids recoiling from his embrace?

  22. 22
    efgoldman says:


    the wingnut universe has many arms.

    And many more pits

  23. 23
    Kay says:


    Right. That and they think Trump is horrible, as a person. Can’t argue with that.

    Another potential drag on GOP prospects is the fact that the recently enacted federal tax reform plan is not particularly popular in New Jersey. Just 35% of state residents approve of the plan and 46% disapprove (including 32% who strongly disapprove).

  24. 24
    Yarrow says:

    @Amir Khalid: I certainly do. Also, the “family interview” where the older daughter told on him about her classmates having video of Ted doing something silly at a parents’ day at school like dressing up in makeup and feather boas or something. The look in her eye was, “Don’t push me, Dad. I’ve got blackmail material and it’s widely disseminated to make sure it doesn’t get destroyed.” She meant business.

  25. 25
    lowtechcyclist says:

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Anyway, people say “statistical dead heat” as if that means something extra. As opposed to what, a probabilistic dead heat? A topological dead heat?

    It doesn’t mean something extra, it means something a little less. It means that while the poll didn’t show the two candidates tied, the difference between the two candidates’ support is small enough that it could be the result of sampling error.

  26. 26
    Yarrow says:

    @Amir Khalid: I certainly do. Also, the “family interview” where the older daughter told on him about her classmates having video of Ted doing something silly at a parents’ day at school like dressing up in makeup and feather boas or something. The look in her eye was, “Don’t push me, Dad. I’ve got blackmail material and it’s widely disseminated to make sure it doesn’t get destroyed.” She meant business.

  27. 27
    lowtechcyclist says:

    Never had a comment go to moderation before on account of discussing sampling error. (No big deal, just one of those minor ‘wtf’ moments.)

    ETA: Anyhow, I’ve tossed a few shekels in the pot for Tipernini. I want to see the the Republican candidates driven before us, and hear the lamentations of their donors.

  28. 28
    Barbara says:

    @Kay: It was intended to hurt New Jersey (along with Massachusetts, California and New York). It also disproportionately hurts affluent suburbs in mostly purple states like Virginia and Minnesota. We might be debating the effects of forcing affluent people to share the wealth with people living in poorer counties, but instead, we all know that it was intended to and did take money from the well to do and give it to the really, really rich while leaving the less well off with maybe just a smidge more spare change.

  29. 29
    EBT says:

    @Gin & Tonic: A physical dead heat with two runners right at the line.

  30. 30
    Just One More Canuck says:

    the ladies are insane there

  31. 31
    Kelly says:

    @oatler.: “Alex, who is Hoyt Axton?”

  32. 32
    West of the Rockies says:

    @Gin & Tonic:


  33. 33
    West of the Rockies says:

    @Gin & Tonic:


  34. 34
    SiubhanDuinne says:


    All gone :)

    I can just hear you saying that in your “mom” voice 🙂

  35. 35
    guachi says:

    Cook has AZ-8 as “Safe Republican” for the Fall election. It would be a major shock if it went to the Democrats and we’d probably see Cook shift many seats towards the Democrats. Even if the Republicans win if the margin is close I’d expect movement by Cook and others towards the Democrats.

    By my own calculations, Cook recently (April 6) tipped the House to an expected Democratic win. Though it’s large based on high numbers of Toss Up/Lean R/Likely R seats (77 total) and having enough of them being won by Democrats.

  36. 36
    Mandalay says:

    Chris Christie’s legacy: Poll suggests GOP lawmakers in New Jersey could be wiped out in November

    Every Republican House member from New Jersey is in danger of losing their seat in this year’s midterm election, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

    The survey released on Monday finds Democrats with a 19-point advantage statewide on the generic ballot, with 54 percent of respondents saying they plan to or are leaning toward voting for Democrats, compared to only 34 percent for Republicans.

    Monmouth pollers say this puts all five of New Jersey’s GOP-held seats at risk.

  37. 37
    Fair Economist says:


    If the Dems lose by 8, that’s a great result.

    Right, it would mean in a special election with no notable features we’d be at the level of flipping an R+9 seat, when we only need to flip R+4 on average to take the House.

  38. 38
    rikyrah says:

    A new filing reveals the three clients Michael Cohen gave legal advice between 2017 and 2018:

    1. President Trump
    2. Elliott Broidy (you know, the guy who paid $1.6 million to a Playboy model who became pregnant during an affair)
    3. A mystery person… https://t.co/G5L6a5ytcj pic.twitter.com/po8mccNEgV

    — New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) April 16, 2018

  39. 39
    Yarrow says:

    @rikyrah: Posted this in the previous thread:

    three clients
    much lawyer
    so privilege
    very representation
    — TheNewNormalHat (@Popehat) April 16, 2018

    Who is the mysterious third client? Don Jr.?

  40. 40
    rikyrah says:

    Top Republican Official Says Trump Won Wisconsin Because of Voter ID Law
    The law blocked thousands of Wisconsinites from voting in 2016, predominantly in Democratic-leaning areas.
    APR. 16, 2018 12:18 PM

    Election officials and Democrats in Wisconsin have repeatedly argued that the state’s strict voter ID law allowed Donald Trump to win the state in 2016 by keeping thousands of voters—predominantly in Democratic-leaning areas—from the polls. Now a top Republican official in the state is saying the same thing.

    “We battled to get voter ID on the ballot for the November ’16 election,” Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, who defended the law in court, told conservative radio host Vicki McKenna on April 12. “How many of your listeners really honestly are sure that Sen. [Ron] Johnson was going to win reelection or President Trump was going to win Wisconsin if we didn’t have voter ID to keep Wisconsin’s elections clean and honest and have integrity?”

    The law, which went into effect in 2016, required specific forms of government-issued photo identification to vote. In a cover story last year, Mother Jones reported that the law kept tens of thousands of eligible voters from the polls and likely tipped the state to Trump. A federal court found in 2014 that 9 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin did not possess the identification necessary to vote. In a University of Wisconsin study published in September 2017, 1 in 10 registered voters in Milwaukee County and Madison’s Dane County who did not cast a ballot in 2016 cited the voter ID law as a reason why. That meant that up to 23,000 voters in the two heavily Democratic counties—and as many as 45,000 voters statewide—didn’t vote because of the voter ID law. Trump won the state by 22,000 votes.

  41. 41
    rikyrah says:

    I dunno who the third client is?
    Very interesting for the speculation. Is there a reason why the client can’t be revealed?

  42. 42
    Yarrow says:


    "The third legal client directed Mr. Cohen to not to reveal the identity publicly," Cohen’s lawyers wrote.— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) April 16, 2018

    Hence the speculation. Who doesn’t want to be identified and why?

  43. 43
    Yarrow says:


    Michael Cohen has suggested to people close to him that perhaps he should act as his own attorney, because he may be the most apt person to defend himself, Vanity Fair reports. https://t.co/jQY4LEHf9A— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) April 16, 2018

  44. 44
    Barbara says:

    @Yarrow: The identity of a client isn’t privileged. Nor are billing records and lots of other things. I can see why, however, the court would honor a wish not to be identified by a third party whose involvement appears to be extraneous to the matters under investigation.

  45. 45

    @lowtechcyclist: Excellent adaptation of the conan creed there :-D

  46. 46
    Barbara says:

    @Yarrow: Oh yeah, now there’s a really bad idea.

    ETA: Given that the first two clients are people who basically used Cohen to pay off their extramarital dalliance partners, I can only surmise that the third client might be in the same boat, so of course, does not want to be identified.

  47. 47
    TenguPhule says:


    Maybe punishing Blue States with higher taxes wasn’t such a genius move?

    The beatings will continue until morale improves.

  48. 48
    TenguPhule says:

    @rikyrah: This is my shocked face. There was gambling taking place on the premises?

  49. 49
    Yarrow says:

    @Barbara: I would agree that if a client wishes not to be identified in an unrelated case regarding their lawyer that it would be fair to honor their wishes unless and until the client’s involvement somehow became part of the case. In Cohen’s case I’d guess this third client isn’t unrelated, that he, and I’d guess it’s a he, is tied to Russia, the Republican party and/or Trump. So the name may come out at some point.

  50. 50
    Bobby Thomson says:

    Cohen appearing before Judge Wood at 2. Hope he packed a toothbrush.

  51. 51
    Bobby Thomson says:

    @Yarrow: never has the fool for a client axiom been more apt.

  52. 52
    efgoldman says:

    @Bobby Thomson:

    Hope he packed a toothbrush.

    What could/would he do that would cause an immediate contempt citation?

    ETA: I doubt he’d spit in her eye

  53. 53
    lowtechcyclist says:

    @Nethead Jay:

    @lowtechcyclist: Excellent adaptation of the conan creed there :-D


  54. 54
    gvg says:

    If the 3rd client really was not related to the Trump matters at all I could see anyone in that position not wanting their name to come out just because we are all going to assume he/she is related to the Trump corruption and reporters will keep digging hoping to get a scoop. Tarred with the same brush. On the other hand how likely does it seem that a client of Michael Cohen is reputable? At best, they aren’t good at picking a good lawyer.
    I suspect it’s going to come out anyway.
    It’s also possible that the investigators might go along with it so they can dig deeper without too many reporters joggling their elbows so to speak. Not sure how likely that is.

  55. 55
    Yarrow says:

    Stormy Daniels has arrived at the courthouse. Apparently Elliot Spitzer is there as well.

  56. 56
    Yutsano says:


  57. 57
    Yarrow says:

    Prosecutor on Cohen's clients: "His letter this morning admits that he has only three legal clients, and I think this is fatal to their motion."— erica orden (@eorden) April 16, 2018

  58. 58
    Waynski says:

    Spitzer’s there? I guess he wants to remind everyone that what’s good for the Spitzer is good for the Trumpster.

  59. 59
    Yarrow says:

    Re: Cohen’s third client:

    On Cohen's secret third client, McKay says, "How can the government ever hope to push back against the overly broad claim of privilege?" if he doesn't disclose the name.— erica orden (@eorden) April 16, 2018

  60. 60
    jl says:

    In the era of Trumpster rule, foreign policy probably falls under C.R.E.A.M., so maybe not off topic.
    Over weekend I read news that UK and France did in fact lead on Syria strike, and also lead in diplomatic response to probable Russian assassination attempt in UK.

    Apparently Trump OK with them being perceived as leaders in diplomatic world, but angrily lost his shit when he found out that US response could look like in the lead and bigger. Weird, I thought Trump wanted all the credit for everything.

    Now I read in Josh Marshall’s twitter, that Trump is under some delusion that Bolton is getting all the media credit (something I have not seen at all) for the Syrian strike and he is upset at Bolton.

    Trump the nutcase has to go along with Trump the malicious and Trump the incompetent, and Trump the ignorant.

  61. 61
    Winston Smith says:


    Not saying that it can’t be done, but it’s going to be tough.

  62. 62
    TenguPhule says:


    I doubt he’d spit in her eye

    I only agree with you on this because he’s physically incapable of being able to spit upwards successfully.

  63. 63
    TenguPhule says:


    What could/would he do that would cause an immediate contempt citation?

    Tell the judge: “You’re not the boss of me!”

  64. 64
    Amir Khalid says:

    He will most certainly have a fool for a client.

  65. 65
    Ridnik Chrome says:

    Apparently Elliot Spitzer is there as well.

    Elliot Spitzer, that old kibitzer…

  66. 66
    Yarrow says:

    Posted in next thread, but since it has been discussed here:

    Judge has ruled that client name must be disclosed publicly now.— erica orden (@eorden) April 16, 2018

  67. 67
    trollhattan says:

    Bolton pissing off Donny would be all kinds of awesome.

  68. 68
    efgoldman says:


    Bolton pissing off Donny would be all kinds of awesome.

    He eventually pisses off everybody, so why not?

  69. 69
    Some Dude says:

    Here is an article of the two candidates funding sources:


Comments are closed.