Uh oh.
NEW #ILGov Dem Poll:
Pritzker: 32%
Kennedy: 26%
Biss: 22%
Undecided: 16%Victory Research, conducted Mar 13-16
Margin of Error: 2.82%
Total polled: 1204 statewide— Mary Ann Ahern (@MaryAnnAhernNBC) March 18, 2018
My family, my people, have all been on the Biss train for about a year. They have poured blood, sweat, toil, and tears (and money!) into his campaign. I put it to a friend, “If Biss really has no chance against Pritzker, which this poll does not show conclusively but certainly suggests, and we believe Pritzker is the worst of the viable candidates, are we not obliged to vote strategically for Kennedy? Are we no better than Greens or DSA dead-enders if we vote with our hearts rather than our brains?”
Are we?
Thankfully, I don’t have to make this choice about every primary out there and neither does the fund that’s split between all eventual Democratic nominees in House districts currently held by Republicans. We can give now let Jesus take the reins.
efgoldman
I know nothing about IL politics, but if the Dem infighting means some RWNJ keeps trying to turn the state into Kansas, then shame, shame on you.
Gretchen
Why are you against Pritzger? The Professional Left folks think she’s terrific and are working to elect her.
Jager
Go with the one who can kick GOP ass.
dnfree
@Gretchen: “HER”? Pritzker isn’t a female.
My family has been working for Biss as well. Discouraging that two wealthy individuals with little political experience are leading the pack.
Another Scott
@Gretchen: I haven’t paid much attention to the race. But it would be nice if the Democrats in Illinois could elect another governor that didn’t end up in federal prison. ChiTrib:
(sigh)
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
if the thread is Illinois politics… I saw Beth Fouhy on MSNBC, whom I usually like, concern-trolling about whether the possible defeat of Dan Lipinski signals the end of “moderates” in the Democratic Party. Lipsinski is opining that his loss would mean that the Dems are become a “Tea Party of the left”! Mercy! Because he’s “pro-life”. No mention of his voting against Obamacare, and now sending out flyers with Obama’s picture. She mentioned his “deep roots” in Chicago politics, that he holds his father’s seat. No mention of the old school machine politicking that got him into that seat
dnfree
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah. Lipinski is no moderate, and he’s a product of nepotism. I hope he is defeated.
PSpain
The answer is yes, you would be as bad as a Green.
Well not really, but always vote strategically. If your vote for B helps P win then vote for K which is your more desirable likely outcome.
Add any name in there, I do not know the candidates.
B.B.A.
@dnfree: His sister was Obama’s Commerce Secretary. Wonder why she’s not running instead.
dnfree
@PSpain: True theoretically, but if you knew these candidates you might have trouble voting for either P or K.
I would vote for B, but in my area of Illinois I usually vote in the Republican primary because that is where local races are decided. The Democrats usually don’t even field candidates for most local races. Even if they do, the Republican will usually win in November so I have to care that whichever Republican is more moderate and/or more competent makes it onto the November ballot. This is the fallacy of party primaries.
Tom Q
Could somebody familiar with these candidates tell me why/why not about each of the three? Because, while I see the numbers, the names mean nothing to me, and I might as well be reading about a local election in The Netherlands. And I’d love to understand what’s at issue here.
dnfree
@Tom Q: Here’s the Chicago Tribune endorsement of Kennedy. (They are conservative editorially.) There are three lesser candidates who should just withdraw but naturally won’t.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-kennedy-pritzker-governor-biss-illinois-20180216-story.html
Mnemosyne
@dnfree:
Have you heard if this has changed in your area in 2018? I’ve heard that people are signing up to run as Democrats in a lot of state and House races, but I don’t know if that enthusiasm is also on the local level.
sdhays
Pritzker seems like a gift to Rauner. Democrats in Illinois did the same thing before by nominating a banker after the banks had blown up the economy. How can they be that stupid???
How does Kennedy compare?
Gretchen
@dnfree: I didn’t see that this is gov. There is a Pritzger running for Rodney Davis’s House seat. ProLeftPod are very involved in local politics in that district and think she’s terrific.
PSpain
@dnfree:
We all have different standards and preferences among candidates. Jewish Steel professed a preference for Kennedy over Pritzker. If he thinks Biss has no chance he should vote for Kennedy, holding his nose or whatever.
As frequently stated here and elsewhere voting is not a beauty contest or an expression of individual purity. It is a way to forward your own policy preferences. @dnfree:
Princess
I think Biss’s voters are keener than Kennedy’s and more likely to show up. I also think Kennedy is a stick and not any better than Pritzker. So I am content to vote for Biss. I can’t stand Pritzker but I’ll crawl over broken glass in November to vote for him against Rauner if that’s how it turns out, and I think a lot of people will feel that way. So: vote your conscience now and the Dem in November is my advice.
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@Princess:
That’s generally good advice. Vote your conscience in the primary, vote for whoever wins the nomination because the Republican will always be worse.
KBS
I’m voting for Biss because the other two frontrunners have NO experience AT ALL, and the one and only reason they are contenders is because of their money. That being said, I echo what others have said above–I will vote for the Dem nominee over Rauner no matter what.
Achrachno
The gap between K & B isn’t all that great — roughly equal chances of winning. If B is better, vote B. If B only had 10% then a shift to K might be warranted on strategic grounds.
MGB
Albany Park in Chicago here. I’m voting for Biss. Pritzker is a rich yutz, and Kennedy is just there. But come November, I’ll be voting for the Gov with a D after the name.
Jewish Steel
@Gretchen: Are you thinking of Betsy Dirksen Londrigan? She’s the only female candidate we’ve heard of running for Davis’s seat.
dnfree
@Mnemosyne: There will be Democrats in state-level races. In my local county races, there will mostly be Republicans (sheriff, county board, etc.). There are a couple of races in which it will make a big difference which Republican wins the primary and hence the general election.
scott (the other one)
This post suggests that the poll is likely to be highly unreliable.
Tom Q
@dnfree: Many thanks.
Served
I am fine with either Pritzker or Biss but have significant reservations about both as well. Kennedy, on the other hand, would be an absolute disaster as Governor. He would be more bumbling and foolish than Quinn was in the position.
dnfree
@Served: We certainly agree on Quinn!
Marcopolo
The only poll that counts is the vote on Tuesday. Vote for your most preferred candidate then, support whomever the D’s wind up nominating in Nov.
Served
@dnfree: I am fairly verklempt over him possibly being AG next….How can we miss him when he won’t go away?
germy
The NYT, cheerfully and gleefully amplifying divisions within the Democratic party:
Baud
@germy:
Hahahahaha. Way to stick it to Hillary haters, Nancy Smash.
rikyrah
Conscience now….
But, anyone against Rauner in November.
Jewish Steel
@scott (the other one): Good catch!
Brachiator
@germy:
I can understand, but disagree with the impatience to see a new generation move in, but the faux concern over attacking ads just seems stupid.
AnneWith
@KBS:
I’m with you, KB. The main thing which gives me pause about Biss is his endorsement by Our Revolution, which has been the Kiss of Death for many candidates over the last year & usually indicates there’s something about the candidate which I dislike. But I will vote for him because at least he has government experience (although many state workers dislike him because he voted for the pension restructuring which was found by the IL Supremes to be unconstitutional).
Chris Kennedy’s campaign stumbled and bumbled for months, indicating that he’s not ready for prime time. And there’s that pesky amateur status.
I am expecting Pritzker to win the nomination, though.
My candidate for Attorney General is currently polling at 3%. Quinn holds a steady lead at 20%. My consolation is that Quinn makes a very good gadfly & would likely do well as AG.
Hoping for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan to win the nomination & face Rodney Davis.
Getting down in the weeds, for State Central Committeewoman in district 13, it’s the incumbent Hillary-supporting Jayne Mazzotti vs Bernie Backer Pamella Gronemeyer (SJ-R article). I’m a Hilbot & will be voting accordingly.
Villago Delenda Est
Nancy Smash is “politically toxic” only to the utter scum that are the Rethugs, and some Dems who really hate having to follow some skirt.
Oh, yes, and to the collaborationist rabble of the Vichy Times.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: I’m not a big fan of Peter Beinart, but I thought this was a good write up of the anti-Pelosi shit.
Chyron HR
@germy:
Open question for true progressives and their centrist Democrat allies(?????): Should the 800 thousand people living in San Francisco merely be stripped of their voting rights, or do Our Revolutionary kill squads need to be sent in to liquidate them?
Mnemosyne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Also not a Beinart fan, but he nailed it.
Baud
Some Dem candidates in red areas will say they won’t for Pelosi if asked. They will, however, spend almost all of their time talking about issues of importance to their constituents. The national media will, however, try to distract us with Pelosi hate like they did with EMAILS! I suggest we not fall for it.
Steve in the ATL
Nancy Pelosi is great at her job.
If republicans and their allies in the MSM weren’t attacking her and her “San Francisco values”, they would attack something else, whether real or made up (emails! Benghazi!). Thus it doesn’t matter who she is or where she’s from.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Good article on Pelosi. Even though it is a long read, it leads with a good summary of Pelosi’s effectiveness as Speaker. Then there is this easily delt with soft pitch.
If she is able to help raise money, then what is the Goddam problem? And this is in addition to her political skills whether the Dems are in the majority or minority.
Maybe somebody has a different problem with her, but the stuff spoken about for media consumption is bullshit.
Steve in the ATL
@Chyron HR: I vote for kill squads, only because I’d love to live out there and kill squads would hopefully drive down real estate costs.
dnfree
@Served: He falls into the category of people who had a sterling reputation as a do-gooder in Illinois until they became elected officials.
Ninedragonspot
@Chyron HR: I figure they’d send us to re-education camps. 48 hour sessions of public self-criticism admitting that our attachment to “identitarian politics” wounded the feelings the honest bigots across the nation and thus delayed the Glorious Revolution.
AnneWith
For those who follow Illinois politics, The Capitol Fax is an invaluable resource. Scanned it today & found that apparently Lipinski has bots working for him claiming that his opponent is anti-Catholic & wants to jail nuns. ::rolls eyes::
Also, Nancy Pelosi is one of our best Speakers ever.
Mike J
The worst Democrat in this race is better than the best possible Republican. Vote for whomever you prefer in the primary then make sure the Democrat wins.
Sab
@Baud: My dad is a 93 year old Republican. My husband is a 66 year old Democrat. They both think Nancy Pelosi is really hot, and also smart.
I think this anti-Pelosi stuff is just some crap generated by Republicans and picked up by the misogynists running things in the MSM.
efgoldman
@germy:
Fuck them. THEY FUCKING DESERVE TO LOSE
They know so little about politics I wouldn’t trust them to vote to continue Social Security and Medicare.
Assholes are sitting atop a potential blue wave, and they’re going to fuck it up.
Fuckem
Baud
@Sab: They tried demonizing Pelosi in PA-18. It didn’t work.
Mike J
@Chyron HR: I would much rather have a speaker from San Francisco or Seattle or any other reliably Democratic district than a speaker who had to triangulate to win their own seat and would have to be less concerned about the good of the country and the good the party.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@AnneWith: I bookmarked that. We’re moving to Illinois. It looks like the US rep for the area will be Roskam. Boo.
AnneWith
The edit window ran out while I was adding this recent pro-Pelosi article.
PST
I voted in Chicago today. Several of the primaries had several candidates, but I have little sense of ideological divide. Lipinski (not my district) is the exception, but even a big-tent guy like me didn’t mind seeing him primaried. Voting against the ACA really says something. I think we had a dozen candidates for attorney general, but all are running as the AG who will stand up to Trump. The quality of scandal-mongering has been discouraging. For example, one local candidate for assessor was hit for having, as a banker, approved a loan to a company owned by a big NRA contributor. Biss seems to have based his advertising almost exclusively on not being rich, which isn’t enough. One specific point that I like about Pritzker is that he openly supports a progressive state income tax. I know that will hit me, but I don’t see any other honest way out of the state’s fiscal mess without hurting those least able to absorb the blow.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Good ad, I think.
I think talking about “single payer” at the state level is pointless– IIRC even California couldn’t pull it off, with triple the population, a stronger Dem base and a healthier budget. I like Priztker’s idea of a state-sponsored public option better, but I’m no Mayhew. But a good ad.
AnneWith
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):
There’s a number of Democrats running for his seat & hopefully whoever emerges will be a great candidate!
JR
@Chyron HR: Geographically San Francisco:America is Nantes:France… so
Calouste
Democrats should counter the crap about “San Francisco values” with talk about Alabama “values”. You know, pedophilia, corruption, opioids, teenage pregnancies, that kind of thing.
feathers
On Pelosi, there was a good article analyzing the Conor Lamb election which I seem to have not bookmarked. It looked at the voters and how they voted in 2016. The main point was that undecideds and swing voters aren’t people who vote in every election and change their minds. They show up at the polls when they are inspired. What they found was that very few people who had voted for Trump voted for Lamb, but there were a lot fewer former Trump voters than expected. The difference is getting your people inspired and showing up at the polls, not changing people’s minds. If people’s minds change, what they do is not show up. They don’t go to the polls and vote for the other party. At least not in the short term. But that is good enough.
This is why shitting on fellow Dems is bad form. Make your case why your candidate is preferable, but don’t act like their Dem opponents are loathesome and unacceptable. Depressing turnout is a real problem.
Baud
@Calouste: Pick a state with 2 GOP senators.
efgoldman
How about a thread for the other 49 states?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@feathers: I think that’s right. I also think Democrats, in DC and the hinterlands, seem to somehow fall under the spell of cable news/NYT-driven narratives very easily. FWIW, I think Lamb played it very well.
Baud
@efgoldman: That’s actually a cool idea. 50 states in 50 days.
efgoldman
@Baud:
Jules Verne’s great-great-great-grandson can write it
Villago Delenda Est
@efgoldman: 48. Oregon is boring, as far as Congressional elections go. The sole R is deeply entrenched and incumbent, and represents more cows and or sheep than people.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: didn’t Betty C used to throw up the occasional “Local politics” thread?
ETA: and, coincidentally, here’s some local politics I found wandering around twitter, Joan Walsh’s feed, to be precise
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think so, but I think that was about local politics, as opposed to national politics on a state by state basis.
Baud
@Villago Delenda Est:
Even this year?
Jim Parish
@efgoldman:
I’d go with Nellie Bly. She did it faster – seventy-two days, and for real. (Her account of the trip is entertaining, and available on Project Gutenberg. Among other things, she met Verne on the way, and they hit it off pretty well.)
Mike J
If you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all.
Pass the corn nuts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike J: I’m glad no one was hurt.
And who paid for the helicopter to fly two mid-level White House staffers home for the weekend.
Princess
@AnneWith: Unfortunately, Lipinksi’s opponent has been one of those people who has been bashing Pelosi lately. I’d still probably vote for her if I lived in that district, but I am much less excited about her challenge now.
Mike J
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t understand why anyone would take a helicopter from DC to NY when fixed wing is going to be much, much faster. You can always do the 10 mile ride from Teterboro in a helo.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: “Better Know a
DistrictState”.Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: It’s always possible that an upset could happen, but the district is everything east of the Cascades (except Jackson County, where Medford and the Shakespearean Socialist Enclave of Ashland are located) and very MAGAt infested.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mike J: Redundancy saved them. Donald is trying to eliminate all the redundancy in the name of “efficiency”.
Janet Strange
So in 1968 I was living in Dallas and went to Hemisfair in San Antonio for the day with a friend. It was pouring rain, but it was fun. The only thing I remember of the exhibits, etc was a little three-sided kiosk-like booth with a video looping over and over on each side. The theme was African-American music and one was an old frame country church with the sound of the congregation singing. I don’t remember one of them. But one was of someone playing the blues . . . I think it was “Sugar Babe.” All throughout the day, every time we got near that pavilion I went to hear it again, sometimes standing there to hear it 2 or 3 times. I don’t think I knew who was playing and singing. I was just mesmerized. I tried to tell a couple of people about it, but since I didn’t know who it was, I didn’t know if I’d ever hear him again.
A couple of years later, I was living in Austin and a friend came by one evening and said, “You want to go to [don’t remember the club] – Mance Lipscomb is playing.” Had no idea who that was, but well, sure.
As soon as he walked out and started playing I knew. I was just floored. From then on, whenever I heard he was playing anywhere in Austin, I went. This was the early 70’s and he died in ’76. Never stopped feeling so lucky to have gotten to see him play.
[It’s been so long I was sort of doubting my memory. Was it really Mance Lipscomb playing in the video at Hemisfair? Maybe it was another blues man . . . But the internet is amazing sometimes. Google Mance Lipscomb Hemisfair and lo and behold, check the “filmography” at the bottom of the page. Yep, I remembered it right.]