Conor Lamb’s margin currently greater than what decided the 2000 presidential election.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) March 14, 2018
This #PA18 situation is crazy: not only is a recount possible, but Lamb (D) & Saccone (R) must decide which district(s) to run for in the fall & collect 1,000 valid signatures before the filing deadline (3/20) in just ONE WEEK.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018
The Repubs are scrambling to explain that the margins are so narrow as to make this election meaningless, and also Conor Lamb is practically a Republican anyways, and besides the district is due to go away come November. So… looking good for Sen. Lamb, so far!
RNC spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany tells @rickklein that Democratic challenger Conor Lamb "has essentially run as a Republican." https://t.co/uELwTZR9tA #PA18 pic.twitter.com/Y3tgafJhoK
— World News Tonight (@ABCWorldNews) March 14, 2018
ICYMI: Here's what I'd estimate Conor Lamb (D) needs in each #PA18 county to win tonight:
Allegheny: 58%
Greene: 41%
Washington: 47%
Westmoreland: 43%— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018
People getting riled up about whether Lamb wins or loses are missing the point(s). This district is history, and Saccone winning by two or losing by two are roughly equal in terms of bad news for the GOP in November.
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) March 14, 2018
BTW, I assume that's why the NRCC has poured so much money in to a race that in terms of their majority isn't important in a concrete way. They probably think if they lose this race they have to defend even more seats in the fall. https://t.co/RxDcRfmbbX
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) March 14, 2018
Republicans at the White House are pleased tonight with the narrow margin of PA-18. "This isn’t a blowout — for now, we’ll happily take it,” GOP official says.
— Jeff Zeleny (@jeffzeleny) March 14, 2018
They also are very happy with how good the Titanic’s band is sounding tonight.#stenography#WhatIsItThstBarnumSaidIsBornEveryMinute? https://t.co/WCzaVwYLrV
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) March 14, 2018
zhena gogolia
Nearer my God to Thee
patroclus
Margin at 755. Amazing Grace!
9 precincts left in Washington county – due in 20 minutes.
Wag
I’ll have a gin and wingnut tears on the rocks with a squeeze of lime, please!
dmsilev
“Not a blowout loss” in a district that Donald Trump won by high double digits? This is Baghdad Bob level spin.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: Yep, the President won the district by 20 points.
Jerzy Russian
@dmsilev: yes, the voting outcome is not necessarily to their advantage.
billcoop4
Billcoop4 to GOP official. No one was expecting a blowout of your schmuck. Bite me.
BC
patroclus
1195 absentees from Washington County – will not be counted until tomorrow morning. 200ish absentees from Greene – also not counted til tomorrow. 3000+ Allegheny County absentees due to be counted by midnight,
CNN projecting a 95 vote lead for Lamb after Washington County votes tonight fully counted.
dmsilev
Washington county is in and…
japa21
Two precincts left and Lamb is up by 95 votes. Both in Westmoreland.
guachi
Eww. Way too close for comfort! Go go absentee ballots!
Fair Economist
A significant feature of this election is that with the huge interventions by national Republicans, in support and in money, the election was nationalized as much as, if not more than, a typical midterm. I would expect this swing to carry over into the November election, unlike many of the statehouse races we’ve seen.
JaneSays
Conor Lamb – 109,945 (49.7%)
Rick Saccone – 109,850 (49.7%)
It’s down to a 95 vote race with 99% reporting.
NotMax
Geez, threads popping up too rapidly.
So when does Dolt 45 tweet that “millions of fraudulent votes” were cast today?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I haven’t heard anyone on MSNBC mention that the tax cut has had the effect of a fart in the wind in this race
PsiFighter37
Crazy. But another district swinging 20 points from 2016. No mattter how this ends up, this is great news for us. Maybe for John McCain too?
Mary G
Tonight brought to you by EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!!
guachi
Westmoreland as a whole is voting 42.53% (two party) for Lamb. If he gets that in the approximately 700 votes left he’ll lose by about 10 votes in the initial count.
10.
tobie
@japa21:
I’ve come to loathe this county in the course of the night. Before tonight it didn’t even register on my radar screen. Go figure.
eclare
@tobie: I hate everyone who voted for the Libertarian more, currently around 1,300 people.
Eric S.
@Wag: keep their bitter tears out of my gin, but I’ll happily sip on some gin and watch them cry
JaneSays
Requested absentee ballots by county
Allegheny: 3500
Westmoreland: 1800
Greene: 200
Washington: 1140
This bodes well for Conor Lamb.
patroclus
Allegheny County is done counting absentees and will announce shortly!
patroclus
1930-1178 in Allegheny!! Lamb gains 752!!! Margin at 847!!
JaneSays
@patroclus: I’m guessing Lamb will need to emerge with a 600-800 vote lead after the Allegheny absentee ballots are reported to hold on and win this thing.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@patroclus: who said that?
JaneSays
Lamb now up by 847 votes!
Sab
@eclare: Otherwise they wouldn’t havd voted, so no votes lost to either side.
Patricia Kayden
Wow. Good night!! This is all too much pressure. Hope Lamb pulls out a squeaker.
dmsilev
@patroclus: Woo! And per some comments in the previous thread, Allegheny accounted for over half of all of the absentee ballots.
patroclus
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Live on CNN!
Sab
My cocker spaniel is calmer than Kornacki.
guachi
That was fast counting of absentee. 57.4% for Lamb day of voting and 62.1% from absentee. Nice little boost, I’d say.
Jeffro
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: amen!
BlueDWarrior
Lamb just might have enough to hold the lead into sunrise.
Mnemosyne
@eclare:
Libertarians almost certainly would have voted for Saccone instead, so those votes work to the D’s advantage. Why do you think the Republicans fund Green Party candidates? It’s not because they think those voters would have voted R.
chopper
@patroclus:
AAAHHH GODDAMN
ooh this race gave me some heartburn.
??? Martin
Oh, man, Lamb has this easily. Done and done.
MJS
Westmoreland County Repubs frantically counting on their fingers and toes to determine how many Lamb absentee ballots they need to lose to win this thing.
??? Martin
@MJS: More than all of them, I’m pretty sure.
dmsilev
FlipYrWhig
Saccone would have to win the remaining absentees like 67-33, right?
Gretchen
Lamb up 847 votes. All the Allegheny votes including absentee are in. Waiting on 2 precincts in Washington Country and 3000 absentees from lean-Republican areas.
JaneSays
Just a ballpark figure, but if there are 3,000 outstanding absentee ballots from the 3 Saccone-friendly counties, he’ll need to win those votes by a nearly 2:1 margin to be able to win. Odds feel good for Lamb right now.
eclare
@Mnemosyne: Good point…just hate third parties.
guachi
Saccone probably needs 60% of the remaining vote to win. It’s probably out of reach with the large boost of Allegheny absentee. There were more than the original estimate of 3,750 absentee from Allegheny – about 4,100 and it went 62-38 for Lamb vice 58-42 for the day of vote.
JaneSays
@Gretchen: What’s the estimated number of outstanding non-absentee votes from the 2 remaining Washington County precincts?
NotMax
@eclare
Anecdotal but all the Libertarians I know are Republicans in creep’s clothing.
Redshift
@guachi:
If it works like it does in my state, they didn’t have to wait until the polls closed to start counting the absentee ballots.
dmsilev
@guachi: Do we know when the other counties report their absentee totals?
chopper
Oh baby. oh fucking yeah.
Another Scott
WaPo:
99.7% reporting
Candidate Votes PCT
Conor Lamb (D) 111,875 49.9%
Rick Saccone (R) 111,028 49.5%
+0.4%, +847
In the recent HoD races in Virginia, recounts shifted a literal handful of votes. Unless the absentee, provisional, etc., ballots do something unexpected, it looks to me like Conor won.
Yay!
Cheers,
Scott.
japa21
I would like to remind everyone of my comment at 8:31 EDT.
No sweat. Sure the percentage changed a little, but the actual vote separation may well turn out to be the same as it was then.
guachi
I believe the other three counties will report tomorrow. Some in the morning!
Mnemosyne
@patroclus:
Don’t take this the wrong way, because I’m trying to be encouraging, but you Texas Democrats need to get to work NOW and take advantage of this wave.
Trump won this district by 20+ points a year and a half ago, and it’s already swung to the Democrats.
Jeffro
@chopper: YEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHH!, you mean
tobie
@guachi: I thought there were 3700 absentees in Allegheny but the final tally amounted to approx 3100. Were the other 600 for the Libertarian candidate? That seems unlikely. I guess they could have been disqualified ballots.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
BREAKING: NBC News/Cook Political Report
japa21
There are a few areas of Westmoreland which were projected to go to Lamb. It would be funny if the two remaining precincts were Lamb precincts.
Mike in NC
Fat Bastard had already said he never heard of this Saccone person.
japa21
@tobie: I believe the original number was requested not necessarily returned. Some people return their absentee ballots at the polling place on election day. Or decide to throw them out and vote in person.
MJS
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Western PA Repubs frantically concocting a major tabulation error.
billcoop4
Absentee applications vs. actual votes cast.
BC
JaneSays
@tobie: There were 3700 requested, but usually at least 10% of them never get mailed back.
BlueDWarrior
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I’m guessing the term of art to use in this case should be “Apparent Winner”, since it looks like that Saccone would need to over-perform absentees and PA Absentees almost always lean toward the Democrat when compared to day-of voting.
patroclus
@Mnemosyne: I live in Chicago now and have volunteered for Sameena Mustafa to beat Mike Quigley. Quigley’s gonna win, but it’s fun anyway. We’re voting in a week! And we’re gonna wipe Rauner out!!
(And I met Steve Schwartzberg, the Bernie guy, and liked him a lot too! Not a BernieBro at all and he’s running again in 2020. He talked to me for about 20 minutes about every issue under the sun. A Yale PHD in history).
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@tobie: Kornacki said they’re speculating based on the number of absentee ballots requested, and the number cast is always below that. I’m wondering how many absentee votes are cast by college students
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: Rick Santorum has apparently called it for Lamb on CNN
tobie
@MJS: Hate to say it but I think there may be some truth to this. I don’t recall any recent election when the urban precincts reported well before the rural precincts.
Mike J
catclub
@guachi:
And I bet 1201am does not qualify as morning.
TS
@guachi:
MSNBC now saying 2 will be counted tonight (the larger ones)
MJS
@tobie: Yep, those two Westmoreland precincts have been hanging out there a long time.
tobie
@japa21: @JaneSays: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Thanks for the explanation. This likely means that we only know the number of requested absentee ballots in the other counties, not the returned ballots.
Mnemosyne
@patroclus:
Ah, okay. I think I was getting your former and current residences mixed up.
Good luck with Mustafa — she sounds like a great candidate, and with the way this year is going, I wouldn’t count her out just yet.
MomSense
@MJS:
WTF is this with the small, rural precincts taking longer than the cities? They aren’t using black or white stones FFS.
Another Scott
via LOLGOP – Sahil Kapur:
Yup.
We need to keep fighting and actualize the wave. We can do this!
Cheers,
Scott.
patroclus
@Mnemosyne: She used to run a Planned Parenthood office, she’s a comedienne (2nd city grad), has demonstrated for LGBT rights, has been a tenant advocate, she’s a NW grad and looks like Prince Harry’s fiance. I went to a candidate forum on Saturday and she and Schwartzberg are vastly better than the Quigster.
BlueDWarrior
@MomSense: If anything, we need to be arguing for a faster way for rural precincts to get their stuff counted and sent in so that we don’t have 10 hour election nights trying to count things if it’s in any way close.
chopper
@Jeffro:
YYEEEEOOOUCH, them pins is pointy!
mike in dc
Those absentee ballots, even in the red counties, may skew more Democratic, due to the efforts of the Lamb campaign.
Davebo
With 2 precincts still not reporting I predict litigation over this election in the end.
MJS
@MomSense: They’re populated by fuckwits who think voting for people like Trump is a good idea. You can’t expect them to be able to do much of anything.
Frankensteinbeck
@Another Scott:
I want to watch you packing up your things to go home as Nancy Pelosi is declared Speaker of the House behind you, Ryan. I would make a recording.
Cckids
@Mnemosyne:
I know not everyone is a fan of the Obama bros, but if you get the chance, listen to their podcasts from TX, recorded live last weekend. The energy & enthusiasm of the crowds were off the charts. Beto O’Roark was on; he’s great, quick thinking, good sense of humor but didn’t get dragged into jokiness- kept on message without sounding stiff. He’s a keeper!
Also, the put-downs of Ted Cruz were fabulous.
Good stuff!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Frankensteinbeck: Brian Williams is verrrry concerned about Nancy Pelosi as a drag on Democrats
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
different-church-lady
So what the heck did Saccone run as?
eric
@different-church-lady: a nazi?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
those raw numbers make me nervous, but that’s a big percentage to overcome– pretty sure Kornacki said that even in those counties, Dems perform better in absentee votes than in election day votes
this seems to be the spin, again no mention of the ACA (he’s for it) or the trump-Ryan tax cut (he was against it)
different-church-lady
@japa21: You didn’t go to bed.
BlueDWarrior
apparently the Washington Cty people are going to be hand-counting the absentees all morning long…
GOD this is just… just… well it’s something alright, just not sure what yet
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
How many congressional districts are more democratic than this one again? 119 was it? I do hope Lamb pulls this out, not just for the long list of partisan and patriotic reasons, but also because he seems to be a legit public servant personality. Somebody that will take this shit seriously, and fucking belongs there.
BlueDWarrior
Also Saccone is talking and… he… yeah I can see why he’s the “one Republican” that can fall back into a tie in a district that Trump won by 20 not even 2 years ago.
Amir Khalid
@different-church-lady:
My thought was: Does the Republican party expect Conor Lamb to caucus with it?
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@eric: this seems about right
BlueDWarrior
@Comrade Nimrod Humperdink: I don’t mind having a (semi-)Conservative Democrat in office if they take their job seriously and don’t just use it to be “Fox’s News Special Democrat[sic] Friend”
Then again I live in a state that produces a lot of moderate white Democrats so I’m just used to it, looking at you Gov. Edwards (no not that one).
Japa21
@different-church-lady: Just woke up and checked things out.
Mnemosyne
@different-church-lady:
A loser. ?
Omnes Omnibus
Trump won by 20 % in the Presidential in this district. If you can’t see how a photo finish either way tonight is good for our side, then you have issues. Flame me.
chrome agnomen
@different-church-lady: you might think this would indicate to republicans that they should run less insane candidates, wouldn’t you? i crack myself up.
Bupalos
@BlueDWarrior: it’s in the bag, is what it is.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
but, but…… the tax cut!
but, but…… coal!
but,, but…… Muh Wall!
but, but…… war on Xmas!
Mike J
Why do I like Seattle?
TS
3 hours to count 1100 votes!!!!
This is so weird – and of course Brian doesn’t ask WHY does it take 3 hours to count 1100 votes
Comrade Nimrod Humperdink
@BlueDWarrior: yeah I wasn’t thinking of Evan Bayh or Joe Lieberman when I said that. I had folks like Jon Tester or even Heidi Heidkamp in mind. Actual Democrats, but who have no illusions about who they represent, and take their work seriously.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Washington County official tells MSNBC they’ll need three hours to get to an official count of their (I think) ~1,100 absentee votes
Bobby Thomson
Lamb is a shoe-in to win the new PA-17. Saccone should win the new PA-14. This is 100% for the national editorial pages.
Mnemosyne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Many have tried to primary Nancy Pelosi. None have succeeded. She eats them for breakfast.
Anne Laurie
New post up top, since ‘change of plans’…
hellslittlestangel
So, another all-nighter, followed by endless demands for a recount by a dickish Republican? Time to go read highlights from Franken’s memoir.
Cheryl Rofer
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yeah, but you gotta admit that an actual win would make that swing just a little bit sweeter.
Redshift
@BlueDWarrior:
I’m all for every area counting with the same efficiency, but I’d caution against demanding the results fast just so election night doesn’t run late. Fast results are always in tension with secure elections and reliable recounts (and vote-by-mail, which produces higher turnout), and I’d much rather have those if I have to choose.
themann1086
@Redshift: so I was the Machine Inspector at my old precinct for 5 years, so I can answer this.
Because a voter can come to their polling place and void their absentee ballot and vote in person, we cannot open and count the absentee ballots until the polls close. While the machines tabulate totals, we usually open the absentee ballots, count them, and record those numbers on the election return sheet. We would then attach the machine printouts and the Judge of Elections takes them and the machine cartridges to county election board. Our precinct would combine all numbers informally on private sheets that we would give to each party’s reps so they would know the true vote totals. We could usually get everything to county by 930, give or take. Don’t know what the county procedure is, if they push our tabulation as unofficial before checking or what, but that’s how things looked for us.
Davebo
@Cckids: Where can I find their podcasts?
hellslittlestangel
The vote-counters need an English-to-Russian interpreter?
BlueDWarrior
@Mnemosyne: Yeah that’s why the More-Liberal-Than-Thou contingent are trying to get her to retire. Since they can’t find anyone in that district that wants to jump under that wheat thresher.
Personally… you want your party leaders to be functionaries and know how to run their committees and the caucus apparatuses instead of pounding the desk about ideology. I mean… like I know a lot of people who are liberal as I am but I wouldn’t ask them to run a donut shop let alone a Congressional committee.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: No fucking shit.
??? Martin
@TS: they get counted multiple times until they have matching counts and some are done by hand.
burnspbesq
@Omnes Omnibus:
A good loss is still a loss. As a famous Wisconsin resident once said, “winning isn’t everything … IT’S THE ONLY THING.”
Another Scott
AP:
Democrats can win almost anywhere if they are smart and address the voters’ needs and wants…
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@hellslittlestangel: You aren’t helping.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Rex Tillerson who?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mnemosyne: oh hell, I wasn’t even thinking of a primary. I just want these genii, in the party and in the press, who are so very concerned about Pelosi to tell me 1) who takes her place as Dem leader 2) do any of them really think Rs won’t still use her as a boogeywoman, and they won’t toss in Maxine Waters and Hillary Clinton as well. I think it was Luther Strange whose ads were all about Obama, barely six months ago, wasn’t it?
ETA: Also, my hate-watch BriWi smugly talking about Beltway Manhattan types learning about pickup trucks and farm issue… Hey, fuckwit fabulist, those pickup truck drivers want you to take “entitlement reform” and cram it up Tom Brokaw’s ass
BlueDWarrior
@Redshift: And you know what, that’s a fair point.
Accuracy in the end is more important than speed when it’s something as critical as determining who sits in elected office. I just wish there was a more effective way to show which vote has been counted where, and what ETA on the next report is.
But perhaps that has more to do with reporting rules than counting mechanisms…
KithKanan
@TS: Could be innocuous. I don’t suspect my California county of mucking about with elections, but (until we finally replace it before our June primary this year) we’ve been using a ballot scanner purchased in 2000, and in the 2016 election the feeder on it broke and our elections staff had to feed 139,685 ballots by hand.
Omnes Omnibus
@burnspbesq: You are wrong here. And you know why.
ETA: And you got the Lombardi quotation wrong. Sit in the box and feel shame.
Another Scott
@Bobby Thomson: Saccone apparently doesn’t know how to win a race facing any serious competition. Plus, he apparently doesn’t know how to fund-raise.
I don’t think he’s a shoe-in anywhere, myself. But I guess we’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
??? Martin
@BlueDWarrior: Voters there are like voters here – seniority makes up for many sins. Part of the reason that district is so liberal is because Pelosi can carry that to a national platform. A more liberal Rep wouldn’t have nearly so much of a voice for quite some time.
BlueDWarrior
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Democrats should NEVER be in the business of determining their leadership based on how triggered conservatives act whenever they do something. The only concern should be “can you effectively manage and operate your assigned post” and “can you at least stay somewhere within the general space we’ve carved out on the ideological spectrum when you argue for/against policy; and barring that, make a cogent argument to your position that wont piss off our regular voters”?
patrick II
That wasn’t the weirdest part. They started opening the envelopes at 8:00 and had just finished (at about 11:30 )
Feebog
I do not understand why they can’t count the absentee ballots as soon as the polls close.
Omnes Omnibus
@patrick II: Have you ever worked an election?
JaneSays
OT: Stephen Hawking just died.
Omnes Omnibus
@Feebog: Fuck off, the 80 y/o women who show up are doing the best that they can.. If you want faster, volunteer.
patrick ii
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yes
??? Martin
Wow. Stephen Hawking has passed away. I can’t put into words just how amazing it is he was able to produce as much as he did given his condition. I never expected him to live this long. Just an amazing individual.
Omnes Omnibus
@patrick ii: What do you find odd about this election?
Citizen Scientist
what is that thing Kornacki is wearing on his hand?
marcopolo
Whelp, I have to believe there will be a recount but the last big slug of votes (the 2 outstanding precincts and absentees from Westmoreland) just came in and Lamb is leading by just over 550. Saccone ain’t gonna make that up with the remaining absentees from Washington & Green counties.
Barring skulduggery I think the Dem just picked up the win.
PS the official line is Saccone would need to win 70% of the remaining 1400 absentees to catch up. Not gonna happen.
marcopolo
@Citizen Scientist: He had a run in with a stretch of pavement today while he was riding a bike.
Gretchen
Obama bros podcast: Pod Save America – that’s the one that Beto O’Rourke was on. Obama speechwriter and a couple of other guys from the Obama White House talk about current events. Pod Saves the World deals with foreign affairs. Lovett or Leave It features Obama speechwriter Jon Lovett and is always live, has a panel, and is more humorous than the other two. All are really good. I find it encouraging that they are all doing live events and the audiences sound crazy-enthusiastic, and they’re doing things like voter registration at the events. They did a European tour, and even got enthusiastic audiences in London and Stockholm.
Gretchen
@BlueDWarrior: Yes! This! People who want to ditch Nancy Pelosi thinking that Republicans wouldn’t demonize the person who replaces her are dreaming.
Gretchen
@Citizen Scientist: They said Kornacki had a NYC bike accident and that’s a response to his injury.
John Revolta
@Cheryl Rofer: That’s pretty amazing.
Cckids
@Davebo: I get them from the podcasts section on my iPhone. Or their website is Crooked.com. They have several; the Texas ones were on Pod Save America and Lovett or Leave It.
ETA: or what Gretchen said at 142.
Feebog
@Omnes Omnibus:
You can fuck off my friend. I was a poll.clerk for ten years in SoCAl. I can tell you that in California at least, Absentees are counted as soon as the polls close. The only absentees that are not are those that are dropped at the polling place. There is at least a one to two hour lag between poll closing and delivery of the ballots to a central location. Plenty of time to count the absentees. Several of these countries were not even going to count the absentees tonight.
mskitty
@BlueDWarrior: NO! NONONONONONO! Paper ballots no matter if it takes DAYS to count! Faster is NOT necessarily better! Faster is always more fkable!
Patricia Kayden
@JaneSays: Sorry to hear that.