PA-18 results open thread

Have at it as the polls close in the special election for Pennsylvania-18.

Open thread






342 replies
  1. 1
    Trentrunner says:

    Something that actually matters!

  2. 2
  3. 3
    billcoop4 says:

    Fingers crossed, although I suspect my distant relatives in that areas are not …..blue.

    BC

  4. 4
    japa21 says:

    I really shouldn’t be this keyed up about this race, but I am. The devil made me do it. Rather Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

  5. 5
    WaterGirl says:

    Crossing my fingers for Connor Lamb, and PA.

  6. 6
    Corner Stone says:

    Looks like premature posting execution. Don’t worry. It happens to a lot of Front Pagers. Or so I hear.

  7. 7
    dmsilev says:

    NYT Hypnotic Election Needle. Page says they expect first results around 8:20 Eastern.

  8. 8
    Snarki, child of Loki says:

    Shitty cold snowy weather today.

    Those with WHITE HOT RAGE won’t notice.

  9. 9
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    BRD Polling
    ‏ @brd_polling
    1m1 minute ago

    BRD #ExitPolls for #PA18!

    Lamb – 52 (+5)
    Saccone – 47
    Miller – 1

    Trump Approval
    Approve – 48
    Disapprove – 48
    Unsure – 4

  10. 10
    Corner Stone says:

    @Trentrunner: #AllPostsMatter !

  11. 11
    dmsilev says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: So, taking that at face value (I know, I know), four percent of the voters approved of Trump but voted for Lamb. That’s a very confused bunch of people.

  12. 12
    Baud says:

    It’ll be close in a +20 Trump district where the GOP far outspent us. Winning it outright would be icing on the cake.

  13. 13
    WaterGirl says:

    @dmsilev: Just seeing those words in blue (your link) gives me flashbacks to election night Nov 2016. I will never be able to look at one of those again.

  14. 14
    Baud says:

    @dmsilev: Vote splitters are funny people.

  15. 15
    different-church-lady says:

    @Baud: It’s an age of political incoherency.

  16. 16
    WaterGirl says:

    Just a few hours ago I started to wonder about possible interference in voting in this special election. However it comes out, I hope the exit polls are close to the results.

  17. 17
    guachi says:

    I can’t quit the New York Times needle. It’s what told me Hillary would lose and I kept posting here that there was trouble long before most of the rest of the Juicers succumbed to reality.

  18. 18
    Corner Stone says:

    Oooo, I am *loving* that tie Chris Hayes is wearing tonight.

  19. 19
    WaterGirl says:

    @Corner Stone: serious or sarcasm?

  20. 20
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @guachi: No one wants to miss a chance to panic and despair, right? :/

  21. 21
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Evan McMurry
    ‏ @evanmcmurry

    #PA18 has generated 373,000 in the last three days.

    Conor Lamb seems to be owning Twitter; three of the top associated hashtags are pro-Lamb, and the five top #PA18 tweets are from Conor Lamb or his supporters.

    I guess Putin didn’t want to invest in this particular race.

  22. 22
    Corner Stone says:

    @WaterGirl: I would have further comments but MSNBC’s god damned bullshit bottom line chyron is keeping me from seeing it any longer.

  23. 23
    Ignatius Donnelly says:

    @dmsilev: That’s basically the “Tsar is good but his counsellors are evil” faction. They’re aware that the GOP is screwing them, but they don’t blame Trump. A key target group for Lamb, believe it or not.

  24. 24
    WaterGirl says:

    @guachi: You can’t quit their needle, and I shudder at the thought of ever looking at one of those again. Interesting that we have such different responses to the same thing.

    It takes all kinds, as my dad used to say.

  25. 25
    Corner Stone says:

    I am not sure why MSNBC is displaying CURRENT HOUSE CONTROL numbers when this is one race that won’t tip the balance either way.

  26. 26
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    I hope Lamb wins and shows up at a victory rally in a Sheperd Fairey inspired Nancy Pelosi tee-shirt

  27. 27

    @WaterGirl: did they finally take off the autojitter?

  28. 28
    japa21 says:

    @Corner Stone: House, Senate. Really, what are they thinking. Is this practice run for November?

  29. 29
    efgoldman says:

    @japa21:

    Trump made me do it. Um, that’s the same thing, isn’t it.

    He is much too dumb to be the devil. Not even an apprentice fallen angel

  30. 30
    WaterGirl says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Funny thought, but I’m also glad you aren’t his campaign manager!

  31. 31

    Did you guys see Snooze Hour? Apparently, Pompeo is going to make the State Dept great again, because he has the President’s ear.

  32. 32
    Sloane Ranger says:

    David so excited it looks like he hit the post button twice.

    Cheering for some Lamb with mint sauce from across the pond.

  33. 33
    Uncle Ebeneezer says:

    BREAKING: Democrats on the House Intel Committee have just released a detailed report of dozens of key witnesses that Republicans refused to allow the committee to interview.

    Document shows a clear violation of their duty to America. See below:

    https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/973711988059770880

  34. 34

    @Major Major Major Major: you can click a button for the flutter

  35. 35
    Tinare says:

    Turnout in Mt. Lebanon was reportedly high. Affluent, educated, populous part of the district. My relatives there are Lamb supporters. Fingers are crossed for a win.

  36. 36
    scott (the other one) says:

    @Sloane Ranger: I like that he bigfooted his own post.

  37. 37
  38. 38
    Matt McIrvin says:

    As someone on LGM pointed out, whether Lamb actually wins is not that consequential: the district is going to be eliminated anyway, and the fact that it’s even close in this district is great news for November. But a win would be good.

  39. 39
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I’m serious. Just the thought of looking at the needle gives me the willies. I have no idea whether they have done that or not.

    They are bastards for building in the jitteringt in the first place!

  40. 40
    scott (the other one) says:

    @Major Major Major Major: We have reached Peak Bigfoot? (Undoubtedly good news for John McCain.)

  41. 41
    different-church-lady says:

    @Matt McIrvin: In my view, it has significant impact on the narrative: “Dems can win anywhere” vs. “Oh, look how close the horserace is” is big as far as psychological edge goes.

  42. 42
    WaterGirl says:

    @David Anderson: Does the button say “masochists, click here”?

  43. 43
    scott (the other one) says:

    @Matt McIrvin: A win would be good, as (among other things) it would likely cause even more incumbent GOPers to retire, making their races even more competitive.

  44. 44
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: with his own post! with the same post!

  45. 45
    guachi says:

    The Needle is nice because it automatically does the math on the “but the results of the urban areas haven’t come in yet!!!!” mantra you always hear.

  46. 46
    WaterGirl says:

    @Matt McIrvin: Though I get that the district is redrawn, so this is only until November, I don’t see how it’s not better for him to win tonight than to lose. Winning > Losing. Plus the humiliation of the R candidate is important.

  47. 47

    @Matt McIrvin: @scott (the other one): @WaterGirl: yup, psychology and narrative are hugely important in elections.

  48. 48
    JR says:

    @different-church-lady: Given that Doug Jones won a considerably more consequential race just 4 months ago, the narrative doesn’t last long.

  49. 49
    Baud says:

    @JR: Agreed. The pessimists will be back soon enough.

  50. 50
    WaterGirl says:

    @JR: I don’t think anyone has forgotten about Doug Jones; I hear it referenced often.

  51. 51
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    BEJAN
    ‏ @JEFFGORDON5
    1m1 minute ago

    This #pa18 hearing illegal out of state voters could be there and this very illegal it happend in Alabama so #Democrats are desperate anymore #RedWaveRising2018

    Russians need to work on their conversational english

  52. 52
    eclare says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I admit my own psychology could use some good news….

  53. 53
    different-church-lady says:

    @JR: Hypothetical: is Lamb on the edge of victory tonight if Moore had squeaked out a win?

  54. 54
    mike in dc says:

    @JR: Isn’t this the last congressional special election before November, though? Unless Thad Cochran’s replacement is up before then.

  55. 55

    Well, as usual I have therapy during the election returns, you kids keep it real!

  56. 56
    WaterGirl says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch Who is this Jeff Gordons? He writes like he’s Tonto on The Lone Ranger or Hop Sing on Bonanza.

  57. 57
    Baud says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch: Google translate could probably do a better job than that.

  58. 58
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: we’ll miss you.

  59. 59
  60. 60
    WaterGirl says:

    @Major Major Major Major: I meant that! You goof.

  61. 61
    japa21 says:

    500 plus votes counted, Lamb up 52.5 to 47. We can all go to bed now. It’s in the bag.

  62. 62
    different-church-lady says:

    @Major Major Major Major: How con-veeeeeeeen-ient.

  63. 63
    Baud says:

    OT. Beware!

    HELENA, Mont. (AP) — A man who registered as a Green Party candidate for Montana’s U.S. Senate race was on the state Republican Party’s payroll and heads a newly formed anti-tax group, according to a review of election documents.

    Timothy Adams filed as a challenger Monday against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who faces a tough re-election campaign, in a race where a Green Party candidate could siphon votes from the Democrat.

    AP

  64. 64
    different-church-lady says:

    @japa21: It’s two days after Daylight Savings Time — I won’t be able to sleep for a week.

  65. 65
    WaterGirl says:

    @Baud: rat fuckers, all of them.

  66. 66
    JMG says:

    @mike in dc: No, there’s the one in Arizona for Trent Franks’ old seat and I think there’s one in Ohio, too.

  67. 67
    remima says:

    @schrodingers_cat: Yes, I had to turn it off. WTF??
    I hate watch the US politics crap on the Snooze Hour, but some of the other reporting is interesting news that I don’t see elsewhere, so I can’t quite quit it.

  68. 68
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    @WaterGirl: He’s trying to pretend to be a NASCAR fan. Jeff Gordon is a noted NASCAR driver.

  69. 69
    different-church-lady says:

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, and Timothy Adams is too.

  70. 70
    Corner Stone says:

    I am not going to link to it, It’s in NYT. But this is one example of a brazillion why I never want to hear another word from any of the Obama admin ever again.
    Samantha Power: How Mike Pompeo Could Save the State Department

  71. 71

    @Major Major Major Major: During an election is probably a good time for therapy.

  72. 72
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    TCM is running a Stormy Daniels classic, “War and Piece”.

  73. 73
    raven says:

    Rick Perry to the VA, that’s just what the fuck we need.

  74. 74
    fuckwit says:

    @Baud: i thought lamb far outspent saccone

  75. 75
    zhena gogolia says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch:

    “this very illegal” sounds like Cecily Strong doing Melania

  76. 76
    Baud says:

    @Corner Stone: Is it praise of Pompeo or advice to Pompeo?

  77. 77
    geg6 says:

    @WaterGirl:

    He’ll run in the new 17th (my district) against the odious Keith Rothfus. A loss for a Rothfus is a most delicious thought.

  78. 78
    Davebo says:

    Seen on Twitter.. Cute.

    White House Job Interview

    “So where do you see yourself in five minutes?”

  79. 79

    @raven: I feel like I should know this but I don’t. If someone is confirmed to one position, and they’re moved to a new one, I assume they have to be confirmed again. Is that right? Trump can’t just assume a confirmation is good everywhere forever, can he?

  80. 80
    different-church-lady says:

    1% in. Lamb leading by 52%. If this holds, Lamb wins by 5200%!

  81. 81
    Jeffro says:

    @Corner Stone: say whaaaat?!?

    Man, that’s stupid

  82. 82
    Baud says:

    @fuckwit: I’ve heard the opposite, by a lot.

  83. 83
    BC in Illinois says:

    @David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch:

    Russians need to work on their conversational english

    “E-MEHR-gency! e-MEHR-gency! Everyone to get from street!”

  84. 84
    WaterGirl says:

    @Corner Stone: brazillion

    readership capture!

  85. 85
    WaterGirl says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): I certainly could have used it, starting Nov 8 of 2016.

  86. 86
  87. 87
  88. 88
    SgrAstar says:

    I feel like I’m having a flashback…to November 2016. Trying to remain calm and optimistic. Surely our fellow citizens won’t screw us over again…..

  89. 89
    B.B.A. says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): New Senate confirmation each time. Otherwise Garland (already a confirmed circuit judge) would be on the High Court.

  90. 90
  91. 91
    raven says:

    @BC in Illinois: Ah, Whittaker. Walt…

  92. 92
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @raven: Doesn’t the dude already have a job?

  93. 93
    WaterGirl says:

    @raven: There are 3 things he’d like to fix in the VA, but he can’t recall the third one.

    edit: not to make light of that, he would surely be a disaster. Talk about disrespecting the troops.

  94. 94
    rikyrah says:

    @Baud:
    He used to be paid by the GOP

  95. 95
    Yarrow says:

    @raven: But the glasses make him smart!

  96. 96
    Baud says:

    @SgrAstar: This race and the 2016 election aren’t comparable.

  97. 97
    mike in dc says:

    @JMG: Yeah, I researched my own query and saw that. Those are long shots, to say the least. Incumbents got 68% and 66% in 2016, respectively. Worth a shot, of course.

  98. 98
  99. 99
    Ignatius Donnelly says:

    @Baud: You’re both right: Lamb out-raised Saccone 5-1, but outside spending for Saccone was way ahead of Lamb.

  100. 100
    Baud says:

    @rikyrah: For all we know, he still is.

  101. 101
    WaterGirl says:

    @fuckwit: I don’t know the final spending totals, but I know that Rs put in millions at the end.

  102. 102
    dmsilev says:

    @different-church-lady:

    Conor Lamb leads by 21 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 3 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    Seems plausible to me.

  103. 103
    Baud says:

    @Ignatius Donnelly: Thanks for clarifying.

  104. 104
    japa21 says:

    Lamb up by 20% with 3% in. But I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

  105. 105
    WaterGirl says:

    @geg6: Plus, a proven winner carries a lot of weight. I think this win could make a huge difference. If I weren’t so lazy, I could list 10 different ways right off the top of my head.

  106. 106
    zhena gogolia says:

    @Ignatius Donnelly:

    Hey, I was about to say that!

  107. 107
    dmsilev says:

    @WaterGirl: Something north of $10 million by the time the dust settles. Which is a hell of a lot for any House race, never mind one which the GOP was supposed to win easily.

  108. 108
    Corner Stone says:

    @Baud: Fantasy.
    “If Mike Pompeo, the director of the C.I.A., wins confirmation as Rex Tillerson’s replacement as secretary of state, fixing this would become his responsibility. He can’t change the president, but he can make it his mission to revitalize America’s diplomatic corps and get back to trying to solve problems in the real world.”

  109. 109
    Divf says:

    @dmsilev: I’m now past hoping for a win to hoping for a major beat-down.

  110. 110
    different-church-lady says:

    @japa21:

    I suspect there are a lot of strong GOP precincts not reporting yet.

    Maybe they’re too ashamed to say anything.

  111. 111
    raven says:

    @WaterGirl: He was in the fucking air force.

  112. 112
    efgoldman says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    because he has the President’s ear.

    And the letter carrier’s nose.

  113. 113

    @SgrAstar:
    If we lose, eh. It would be a nice pickup. This is not even close to a critical race. If anything, losing would probably piss off the activists who have been driving our wave more.

  114. 114
    Baud says:

    @Corner Stone:

    Meh. People like to give Dems “advice” all the time, and it’s annoying as hell. Unless there’s something else, this seems like turnabout is fair play to me.

  115. 115
    Baud says:

    @japa21: Like St. Petersburg.

  116. 116
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    I know it’s meaningless this early, but Lamb just jumped to a 61-39 lead with 5% reporting. Whoa!

  117. 117
    B.B.A. says:

    @japa21: Map shows most of the precincts to report so far are in the Pittsburgh burbs. The Pennsyltuckians have yet to make their mark.

  118. 118

    please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout please be a +5 Democratic blowout okay?

  119. 119
    Baud says:

    TOO EARLY TO CALL!

  120. 120
    WaterGirl says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): They do have to be confirmed again, but it’s usually a given that if they made it through for one, they will breeze through all subsequent confirmations.

    Look at Leon Panetta, he served in several positions. I am really, hoping though, that there are some key NO votes as a way to send a little feedback to the president. Hoping there are at least 2 Rs who actually give a shit about this country.

    edit: and EVERY SINGLE DEM.

  121. 121
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @japa21: They’re waiting to see how many votes they have to report.

  122. 122
    Corner Stone says:

    @Baud: Give me a break.

  123. 123
    patroclus says:

    If Kornacki’s got khakis on, you know it’s election night.

  124. 124
    japa21 says:

    @different-church-lady: I like that. Basic point is, the lead is going to shrink a lot and we shouldn’t start getting all nervous when it does.

  125. 125
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @B.B.A.: how was the roads up in the hills and hollers today?

  126. 126
    Ignatius Donnelly says:

    @WaterGirl: I’ve seen analysts on Twitter reporting a swing of 20 to 2y percentage points in the precincts counted so far.

  127. 127
    Baud says:

    @Corner Stone: I’m not reading the whole piece. I really don’t care.

  128. 128
    WaterGirl says:

    @rikyrah: Probably until about 45 minutes ago.

  129. 129
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Good news for Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in fragmentary returns in white, working class, traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate.

    23 replies 173 retweets 498 likes

  130. 130
    dmsilev says:

    @B.B.A.: Very early yet, but encouraging. NYT’s analysis of what their needle is showing:

    It’s early, very early. But good news for Conor Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in white working-class traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate. On average, Lamb is running 3 points ahead of our estimates in fragmentary returns.

  131. 131
    geg6 says:

    @japa21:

    Yeah, pretty sure that’s all Allegheny County, the more affluent and educated suburb. But even still, that’s a damn big spread for the area.

  132. 132
    WaterGirl says:

    @Yarrow: If he wore 3 pairs of glasses at the same time, maybe he could remember all 3 points to his plan.

  133. 133
    guachi says:

    It’ll be interesting not just to see the lead the R gets from the R areas but turnout, too. I suspect we’ll see some quick changes if turnout is different than expected.

  134. 134

    @WaterGirl: That’s more or less what I thought. Thanks.

  135. 135
    Yarrow says:

    Apparently people are still in line to vote.

  136. 136
    patroclus says:

    @japa21: Oh no! It just went from 60-40 to 58-42!! I’m getting really worried now…

  137. 137
    chris says:

    @Corner Stone: She must be talking about a different Pompeo.

  138. 138
    WaterGirl says:

    @raven:

    He was in the fucking air force.

    I’m not sure how that is significant.

    There’s not a single R that would be put up for that position that actually gives a shit about making/keeping the VA a good place, run by the government, not privatized. Plus, the guy is not competent.

    edited

  139. 139
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @chris: Always sounds like a 70’s porn star to me: Harry Reems, Ron Jeremy and Mike Pompeo.

  140. 140
    raven says:

    @WaterGirl: It is to me.

  141. 141
    efgoldman says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):

    Trump can’t just assume a confirmation is good everywhere forever, can he?

    He can, and will, assume whatever the fuck his mini-brain conjures up, but he’d be wrong.
    Each nominee for each office requires senate confirmation. Usually someone in an existing, already confirmed cabinet job slides thru with a couple of pro forma hearings and a vote. We have left usually far, far behind.

  142. 142
    WaterGirl says:

    @Gin & Tonic: I wish I could laugh at that.

  143. 143
    japa21 says:

    FTFNYT has it back to even. Not a single precinct in Westmoreland County has reported yet. That seems suspicious to me.

  144. 144
    Mary G says:

    Never heard of this guy before, but he says he’s a GOP consultant and I’m hoping he’s right:

    Saccone is losing Bethel Park precincts by 10-15 points. This thing is over. #pa18— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) March 14, 2018

  145. 145
    patroclus says:

    @Gin & Tonic: What about Dirk Diggler and David Dickinson?

  146. 146
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Nate Cohn
    ‏ @Nate_Cohn

    Our expectations supposed a very strong Dem turnout in the well-educated suburbs around Pittsburgh, weaker in working class areas. That’s being materializing.

    I guess working class whites are demobilizing now that War on Christmas as been won.

  147. 147
    Peale says:

    @Corner Stone: hot take: by not being Mike Pompeo.

  148. 148
    Gin & Tonic says:

    Midnight GMT has come and gone, and Russia has not responded to Theresa May. Now what?

  149. 149
    chris says:

    @Gin & Tonic: I don’t dare google that but he has been a Koch Bros. testicle cozy (thanks, Driftglass) for the last twenty years.

  150. 150
    Corner Stone says:

    @Baud: It doesn’t get any better and it does not survive “Meh”.

  151. 151
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @patroclus: Perhaps I don’t know the genre as well as you.

  152. 152

    CNN’s front page shows results as they come in, though without analysis of whether those results beat, meet, or lag expectations. At the moment, they show 16% in, Lamb leading 58-40

  153. 153
    Mike J says:

    @Mary G: It ain’t over til it’s over.

    FTFNYT does have one good thing, precinct maps. Watch the ones in the top right. Lamb needs to run up the score there. 20 points is a good start, but it’s going to tighten.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

  154. 154
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @dmsilev: Not any more–their model has swung toward a Saccone win, but with a tiny margin and a big spread.

  155. 155
    HumboldtBlue says:

    Come on fellow native-staters, make the Bloody Buckets proud!

  156. 156
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏ @Redistrict

    The most GOP-heavy Allegheny precinct that’s reported so far (Jefferson Hills) is only at 54.7% of its 2016 turnout, while most Dem-heavy precinct (Mt. Lebanon 5-7) is at 75.2% of its 2016 turnout.

    That mirrors 2017 specials and it’s pretty ominous for Saccone (R). #PA18

    Win or lose tonight, the fact that turnout for Dems is out pacing GOP by 20.5% is big for the fall.

  157. 157
    Another Scott says:

    @Corner Stone: Haven’t read the story, but Pompeo going from a money-is-no-object-black-budget agency to a let’s-cut-the-budget-by-30-percent agency is going to be eye-opening for him. No matter how good a “manager” he is.

    Dunno what Power’s thinking, and I don’t really want to spend time on it. Of course a good manager “can” do lots of things, but Trump didn’t pick him to fix Tillerson’s gutting of state. He picked him to continue gutting State and be a yes man.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  158. 158
    WaterGirl says:

    @raven: sorry to be dense. Maybe I misunderstood your original comment.

    Rick Perry to the VA, that’s just what the fuck we need.

    Was that serious or sarcastic? Do you think his being in the air force was a good thing?

  159. 159
    rikyrah says:

    @PaulWartenberg:
    Um, you want a +5 blowout?😄

  160. 160
    eclare says:

    @WaterGirl: He’ll forget a pair….

  161. 161
    satby says:

    @Gin & Tonic: they responded. They killed another guy.

  162. 162
    patroclus says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Diggler was Mark Wahlberg’s character in Boogie Nights and Dickinson was Trump’s name with Stormy Daniels.

  163. 163
  164. 164
    WaterGirl says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Did you see the two articles related to this on Lawfare today? I thought they were both terrific, and I learned a lot.

    Let me know if you want links.

  165. 165
    Baud says:

    @Matt McIrvin: How can their model predict turn out?

  166. 166
    Aleta says:

    Now he’s shooting his rifle off at the sky.

    AP source: President Trump considering replacing embattled VA Secretary Shulkin with Energy Secretary Rick Perry.

  167. 167
    guachi says:

    Lamb has such a huge mountain to climb that he can make up 18 points on Trump’s margin and still lose. So all these reports of good news for Lamb might not be enough when he needs GREAT news.

    For those who aren’t looking, the NYT forecast has been between +0.5 for Lamb and +2.1 for Saccone (where it is now).

  168. 168
    Yarrow says:

    @satby: OT – saw your comment in TaMara’s thread and have seen some of your other comments re: your coughing or breathing issues, or whatever they’ve turned into. Several years ago I had a cold that settled in my lungs and I just couldn’t seem to get better. The doctor finally gave me an inhaler and I used it for a short period of time. That allowed my lungs to heal or work better and I finally was able to recover. Just wanted to mention it in case it wasn’t something you’d considered yet and might want to look into. Hope you feel better.

  169. 169
    patroclus says:

    Uh oh. Down to 54-46 – 26% in.

  170. 170
    B.B.A. says:

    @Gin & Tonic: The Foreign Office will send a sternly worded letter advising the Russians that their behavior is “just not cricket.”

  171. 171
    japa21 says:

    Swinging heavily towards Saccone. I may disregard my own advice and start sweating this. Remember exit polls had Lamb up 5. If Saccone wins by 2-3 that is worrisome. Yes exit polls are not perfect, but a 6-7 point differential is unusual.

  172. 172

    @Gin & Tonic:
    oh they responded, by assassinating another Russian.

  173. 173
    WaterGirl says:

    @mike in dc: I was hoping that was going to me my favorite: JUMP! You Fuckers!

  174. 174
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @WaterGirl: I did not.

  175. 175
    Yarrow says:

    I really hope it doesn’t go to a recount and they end up having to flip a coin.

  176. 176
    SFAW says:

    @BC in Illinois:

    “E-MEHR-gency! e-MEHR-gency! Everyone to get from street!”

    More like the sailor whose best effort was “E-german-cy”

  177. 177
    satby says:

    @Yarrow: aww, thanks! I have an inhaler and an Rx for Advair, but the steroid actually made me worse for a bit because it reduced my immune response. I’m much better, but just like you and Tamara, I feel fine and get on with normal activity and then feel wiped out the next day. I figure I just have to wait it out and do what I can.

  178. 178
    patroclus says:

    The percentage is narrowing but the margin (roughly 6000) is widening. 54-46 (31% in).

  179. 179
    mike in dc says:

    Maddow’s gonna need a 4th column soon.
    Lamb holding 8 point lead with 31% in.

  180. 180
    japa21 says:

    36% in but Westmoreland still hasn’t had a single precinct report. To repeat myself, that seems suspicious.

  181. 181
    Elizabelle says:

    Caught a minute of Republican whisperer Dana Bash on CNN. She caught herself before saying “Democrat seat”, but she was reporting on what her GOP contacts were telling her. Like, they should buckle down and run good campaigns.

    O-tay, Dana.

  182. 182
    japa21 says:

    Now the Times has Lamb projected to win, though not by much. I am getting dizzy.

  183. 183
    different-church-lady says:

    Needle gonna make me crazy but it just swang two points back towards the blue all at once.

    (Is swang a word?)

  184. 184
    scott (the other one) says:

    @Yarrow: Chiming in to say that for years my wife would develop a cough in the spring that would last for two months. Every single doctor would tell her to try OTC cough syrups, none of which ever did a thing. Finally one prescribed an inhaler and BING! she was improved in 24 hours and the cough was maybe 10% of what it had been for the rest of the spring.

  185. 185
  186. 186
    SFAW says:

    JFC that FTFNYT needle thingy is frustrating. It just went from Saccone at 60 percent chance to Tossup as I watched.

    Anyone have any tranqs they can send me through the Intertubez?

    ETA: Hey DCL: I think it’s actually “swanged,” because it’s past something-or-other.

    ETA2: And with the “jitter” on, it’s REALLY crazy-making.

  187. 187
    raven says:

    @SFAW: Agree

  188. 188
    Baud says:

    @SFAW: You can close the NYT webpage. Their needle 8s garbage.

  189. 189
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    God I almost wish results were embargoed till 75 or 80% came in
    ETA: Nate Cohn is analyzing the vote in Saccade’s state lege district by education levels. Next up: Angels dancing on the head of a pin

  190. 190
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @different-church-lady: You’re among friends, so yes.

  191. 191
    eclare says:

    @satby: Hey there! Hope you feel better. Developed a cough/fatigue myself a few weeks ago, better but it hasn’t fully gone away.

  192. 192
    B.B.A. says:

    One of the townships in Greene County is named Aleppo. Somebody should call Gary Johnson.

  193. 193
    WaterGirl says:

    @different-church-lady: I googled swing swang swung:

    “swang. (archaic and dialectal) Simple past tense of swing. Now largely replaced by swung.”

    edit: worth noting that autocorrect was fine with swing and swung, but kept trying to change swang.

  194. 194
    patroclus says:

    margin up to 7000 54-45 (36%).

  195. 195
    mike in dc says:

    @WaterGirl: “countermeasures” should be the term on everyone’s lips when a new Democratic president is sworn in. I expect her first national security team meeting to look like FDR’s White House on December 8th, 1941.

  196. 196
    WaterGirl says:

    @SFAW: Just hearing you guys describe the needle swings is making me nervous. Election night scarred me for life, I think.

  197. 197
    different-church-lady says:

    @WaterGirl:

    was fine with swing and swung, but kept trying to change swang.

    That’s from Led Zeppelin II, right?

  198. 198
    NotMax says:

    Good on MSNBC for putting on a regular Maddow program rather than going wall-to-wall election phumfering.

  199. 199
    SFAW says:

    @Baud:

    You can close the NYT webpage.

    Heresy!

  200. 200
    scott (the other one) says:

    @mike in dc: Yeah, there should be a Manhattan Project-like plan ready to hit the ground running on day one with a massive infrastructure overhaul the likes of which the country hasn’t seen since the 50s.

    And then the Truth and Reconciliation Commission hearings start up.

  201. 201
    Starfish says:

    What is up with Green Hills, Washington County? Why is that tiny district a thing that exists? Why are there only four voters there? Did all the people who were not die-hard Trumpsters move away?

  202. 202
    Fair Economist says:

    @Baud: The NYT needle is pretty good and IME is the best predictor of an election as the votes are coming in, but in an election with as much of a swing as this one no adjustment mechanism is trustworthy.

  203. 203
    patroclus says:

    It don’t mean a thang if it ain’t got swang. 54-46 margin still at 8000 (42%).

    Ouch! Margin down to 5000 52-47. (50%)

  204. 204
    JR says:

    @Starfish: It’s a country club

    no, really

  205. 205
    WaterGirl says:

    @different-church-lady: the sound you hear is that flying way over my head.

  206. 206
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    49.1% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 52,392 54.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 44,071 45.4%

    WaPo:
    57.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 59,600 52.3%
    Rick Saccone (R) 53,752 47.1%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  207. 207
    satby says:

    @eclare: yeah, I’ve heard about it from too many areas of the country. I think it’s a virus of some kind. So did the doctor I went to.

  208. 208
    Starfish says:

    Also, I would like to have a word with these Collier District 5 people in Alleghany County. Look at all those arrows on that one map. All the counties are more blue except that Collier District 5. Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?” Do we have a map for which region is doing the most opioids?

  209. 209
  210. 210
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    I saw this tweet this morning, and it’s me a lot of mornings of 2018

    are Sharro @ KarlreMarks
    My favourite bit on Twitter is when you have to reverse-engineer the jokes to figure out what the news is.

    and along those lines, can anyone tell me what the thing about Tillerson and salad is? Or point me in the right direction?

  211. 211
    raven says:

    @Fair Economist: It’s fucking goofy.

  212. 212
    Yarrow says:

    @satby: Sorry the inhaler didn’t work. Maybe a different one would help. I finally just stopped doing all but necessary tasks and rested a lot. I gradually got better. Took time and I’m still not 100% but I’m mostly functional now. I think I just was so weak that it’s taking time to climb back up to feeling well. Take good care of yourself.

  213. 213
    joel hanes says:

    @Starfish:

    Who saw Trump and said “Yes, more of that please?”

    Low-info racists, regligious bigots, gun-humpers, misogynists, and tax haters.

  214. 214
    B.B.A. says:

    @Starfish:

    Green Hills is a borough in Washington County, Pennsylvania, United States. The borough was formed in 1978 when a local businessman worked to secede from the dry township of South Franklin after voters there defeated a referendum that would allow alcohol sales at his country club. The population was 18 at the 2000 census, making it the third least populous borough in the state; only S.N.P.J. and Centralia had fewer residents.

  215. 215
  216. 216
    raven says:

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.

  217. 217
    satby says:

    @Yarrow: thanks, you too!

  218. 218
    eclare says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Google Rex salad Trump and China. Don’t have my mouse handy to link.

  219. 219
    MFA says:

    @satby: I’m going on a month. Congestion, fatigue. No fever. Doc is treating me for pneumonia. But it just won’t die.

  220. 220
    debbie says:

    @satby:

    Now can we kick them out of the UN?

  221. 221
    El Caganer says:

    @Another Scott: I think he picked him specifically to start a war with Iran.

  222. 222
    raven says:

    @Yarrow: I tried everything but time was the only thing that worked and it took a month.

  223. 223
    satby says:

    @raven: isn’t that interesting. Hope there’s election monitors all over the place there.

  224. 224
    raven says:

    @MFA: Mine lasted all of January.

  225. 225
    SFAW says:

    @scott (the other one):

    Westmoreland just needs more time to figure out how many more “voters” they need, to give Saccone the win.

    ETA: I see G&T beat me to the punch. Again.

  226. 226
    Mike says:

    @japa21: They must wait until the Democratic Party-heavy districts report so that the Republicans will know how to calculate the number of votes they report.

  227. 227
    JMG says:

    @B.B.A.: At least they had a good reason.

  228. 228
    Starfish says:

    @B.B.A.: That’s fascinating. Rich people are crazy.

  229. 229
    debbie says:

    @MFA:

    I’ve had pneumonia twice. It took more like two months to recover each time.

  230. 230
    japa21 says:

    That explains why there are no marks on that county even though they are showing votes. So apparently the county is giving results but just a running tally and not breaking it down by precinct.

  231. 231
    chris says:

    @WaterGirl: For you

    I've seen the NYT needleand the damage doneA little part of it in everyoneBut every political junkie'slike a settin' sun.— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) 14 March 2018

  232. 232
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    60.5% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 63,595 52.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 56,427 46.7%

    62.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 66,428 52.8%
    Rick Saccone (R) 58,545 46.6%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  233. 233
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @eclare: thanks– got it.

    new report in the Wall Street Journal claims that President Donald Trump ordered outgoing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to eat wilted vegetables that were served to the two men by Chinese hosts.
    Sources tell the Journal that Trump and Tillerson were served a limp-looking Cesar Salad last November while in China as part of a five-nation tour of Asia.
    Trump feared that leaving the salads alone would offend their Chinese hosts, but he didn’t want to be the one to take the plunge himself.
    “Rex, eat the salad,” Trump told his secretary of state.

  234. 234
    patroclus says:

    Margin 7168. 53-46 (61%).

  235. 235
    B.B.A. says:

    @JMG: SNPJ is another country club that formed its own borough to get a liquor license. Centralia, population 7, is a coal mining town that was mostly evacuated after the mine caught fire.

  236. 236
    Aleta says:

    @scott (the other one):
    printing out what @scott (the other one) said above:

    * Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren’t going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.


    We’re still arguing over what to do about this, but it is a distinct possibility that we will turn it off. We can’t responsibly model the result without data from the most GOP 1/3 of the district. And, well, we did make sure to write this in advance, in case we had to.

    (An explanation they wrote in advance is at @scott t.o.o’s link. Doesn’t copy here.)

  237. 237
    efgoldman says:

    @Another Scott:

    49.1% reporting

    Unless they tell the clients what the pollsters think they want to hear – always a possibility in RWNJ fantasyland – the internal polling in dozens, maybe hundreds of districts has to be absolutely terrifying for them. This is looking like a mirror image of 2010.
    All you fraidy cats and chicken littles take a pill and a nap.

  238. 238
  239. 239
    eclare says:

    @chris: Hahaha……that’s priceless.

  240. 240
    chris says:

    Well folks, we have some bad news. Westmoreland County has told us that they aren't going to report results by precinct tonight (though they had previously told us they would). The model runs on precinct results so, this is a problem.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 14 March 2018

  241. 241
    satby says:

    @MFA: yep, exactly what I had, but I knew it wasn’t pneumonia because I’ve had that multiple times. Still was put on prophylactic antibiotics but they really didn’t help me get better, I just didn’t develop pneumonia. And none of us are sick enough to be hospitalized for it to be better identified.
    Here’s hoping we all shake it off soon!

  242. 242
    hellslittlestangel says:

    Looking good for Lamb [crosses fingers, holds breath].

  243. 243
    WaterGirl says:

    @chris: Gives new meaning to that song!

  244. 244
  245. 245
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @hellslittlestangel: spit through your fingers, turn clockwise in a circle three times, and throw salt over your left shoulder. Quick!

  246. 246
    mike in dc says:

    @chris: Well, with about 80k votes outstanding(spitballing here), Saccone needs to win those around 44k-36k or thereabouts.

  247. 247
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @SFAW: They’re reporting totals, just not breaking it down by precinct.

    Looks very close, in any event. The precincts that haven’t reported yet are mostly red ones, so it’s going to get narrow.

  248. 248
    Elizabelle says:

    WRT people suffering lingering illnesses and fatigue: a Facebook friend suggested that some of it might be tied to Trump fear and fatigue, and I think there might be something to that.

    I guess the control group would be the troglodytes who are fine with Trump and all the disruption and malfeasance; have no idea how they’re doing healthwise.

  249. 249
    different-church-lady says:

    And Nate just turned it off about 20 seconds ago.

  250. 250
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Elizabelle: Those people are terrified of the entire rest of society and the world, so it probably evens out.

  251. 251
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    71.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 75,152 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 69,964 47.9%

    72.0% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 76,181 51.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 70,781 47.9%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  252. 252
    patroclus says:

    51-48 (70%) 5008 margin. Getting dicey!

  253. 253
    Mary G says:

    Breaking: Westmoreland just jumped up to 77% reporting. Lamb (D) holding steady there at 43%. That's right about where he needs to be…but just barely. #PA18— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

  254. 254
    Baud says:

    @Mary G:

    That’s right about where he needs to be…but just barely. 

    Huh?

  255. 255
    opiejeanne says:

    @satby: That describes what I had for two months. Steroids and antibiotics, I didn’t, then I did, then I didn’t have pneumonia. I went to the doctor every other week during that time and the best thing they did was as prescribe a cough syrup that would help me sleep and was non-codeine.

  256. 256
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @SFAW: You snooze, you lose.

  257. 257
    raven says:

    @opiejeanne: I turned down the codeine at first but then gave in. I had this weird whistle when I breathed at night. . . I though there was a cell phone under the bed.

  258. 258
    NotMax says:

    @Mary G

    Haven’t trusted anything named Westmoreland since Viet Nam.

  259. 259
    Baud says:

    Andrea Mitchell reports that Trump was forced to call Tillerson to fire him.

  260. 260
    guachi says:

    Dave Wasserman in an earlier tweet said the results needed to be
    Allegheny 58%
    Westmoreland 43%
    Washington 47%
    Greene 41%

    for Lamb to win.
    He’s currently at
    Allegheny 58.04%
    Westmoreland 43.09%
    Washington 49.76%
    Greene 41.70%

    so barely above estimates.

  261. 261
    Elizabelle says:

    @Matt McIrvin: I, of course, hope they all have one foot in the grave and will shuffle off this mortal coil, soonest. So we can have nice things.

  262. 262
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    74.2% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 78,686 51.7%
    Rick Saccone (R) 72,654 47.7%

    Big jump:

    86.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 91,687 50.4%
    Rick Saccone (R) 89,194 49.0%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  263. 263
    patroclus says:

    50-48 3500 margin 76%. I’m getting nervous!

  264. 264
    Baud says:

    TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!

  265. 265
    jefft452 says:

    @BC in Illinois: “otherwise there is World War III, and everybody is blaming YOU!”

    Haven’t seen that movie in, what? 50 years? And its still quotable

  266. 266
    trollhattan says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    “Rex, eat the salad,” Trump told his secretary of state.

    Typical WSJ, left off “and get your shine box.”

  267. 267
    CaseyL says:

    Margin now down to about 2000 votes, with 86.7% reporting in.

  268. 268
    japa21 says:

    87% in 1,4% lead for Lamb. Nail biter time.

  269. 269
    opiejeanne says:

    @raven: They did prescribe the codeine version and after the second dose I remembered why I shouldn’t take it. I threw up for nearly 24 hours. That’s when they switched me to something that doesn’t do that to me.

  270. 270
    Davebo says:

    It’s a nail biter! I know some would say even being close is a win, but it’s not a win.

  271. 271
    mainmata says:

    With 87% reporting it’s 50-49 Lamb leading. Lamb has been surprisingly competitive in Washington County. This may end up close to a tie or Lamb may hold on barely.

  272. 272
    raven says:

    @jefft452: Paul Ford and Jonathon Winters killed it!

  273. 273
    japa21 says:

    Interesting that we have heard nothing about how either camp is feeling right now.

  274. 274
    patroclus says:

    Man, I wish Baud had gone to the District to campaign for Lamb!!

  275. 275
  276. 276
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    Dave Wasserman @ Redistrict
    Lamb (D) lead down to 2,493 votes (1.4%) w/ 87% of precincts reporting. The remaining precincts lean *slightly* Saccone. This might be a good time to look up PA’s recount provisions. #PA18

    oy

  277. 277
    WaterGirl says:

    @Baud: Forced how? Does she say? Wonder if Tillerson said he wasn’t leaving based on a tweet!

  278. 278
    Baud says:

    @WaterGirl: That’s what she suggested.

  279. 279
    WaterGirl says:

    @Baud: You stop that! :-)

  280. 280
    frosty says:

    @raven: They did. But Alan Arkin and Brian Keith and Carl Reiner and … hell, it was a great cast.

  281. 281
    Baud says:

    @patroclus: I had my phone on silent. Missed his call.

  282. 282
    NotMax says:

    Boy, Ron Wyden has gotten old. Doesn’t look well, appears gaunt.

  283. 283
    Elizabelle says:

    @trollhattan: I thought they were both lucky the meal was identifiable.

  284. 284
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    87.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 93,388 50.5%
    Rick Saccone (R) 90,566 48.9%

    90.7% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 97,208 50.2%
    Rick Saccone (R) 95,232 49.2%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  285. 285
    WaterGirl says:

    @Baud: Not a fan of Tillerson, but good for him on that one.

  286. 286
    guachi says:

    Prediction: Lamb loses by 123 votes. Runs again. Wins by 5.7% in the rematch in November.

  287. 287
    raven says:

    @frosty: And the little blondie!

  288. 288
    Baud says:

    @guachi: There won’t be a rematch. They’ll be in different districts.

  289. 289
    Skepticat says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Do you really think I’ll believe that tRump gave the slightest thought to whether anyone else would be offended by anything?

  290. 290
    dmsilev says:

    Conor Lamb leads by 1.0 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 91 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    Conor Lamb leads by 0.5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting.

    What’s the recount threshold? Anyone know?

  291. 291
    Mary G says:

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

    Lamb winning would stiil be better.

  292. 292
    Fair Economist says:

    Getting cautiously optimistic. The outstanding votes lean R but not overwhelmingly so.

    And as I post a huge bloc comes in from Westmoreland. The remaining votes might even lean D at this point but holy cow this is close.

  293. 293
    japa21 says:

    91% in. This is going to be about .5% either way. Expect a recount.

  294. 294
    patroclus says:

    Margin at 1549, 91% in.

    Ouch. Margin at 703. 94% in.

  295. 295
    Baud says:

    @Mary G: Agree with the tweet and your comment.

  296. 296
    JaneSays says:

    Margin at 703 votes (49.9-49.5), with 94% reporting.

    There’s gonna be a recount.

  297. 297
    Shell says:

    With 87% reporting it’s 50-49 Lamb leading

    Oh Cripes, cue the recount…

  298. 298
    guachi says:

    @Baud: Does Pennsylvania law require candidates to live in the district they represent?

  299. 299
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Skepticat: he owes money to banks Xi controls, or hopes to

  300. 300
  301. 301
    efgoldman says:

    @Baud:

    TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!

    Oh

    shut

    up

  302. 302
    frosty says:

    @raven: Yep, she was definitely striking.

  303. 303
    JaneSays says:

    Down to a 72 vote margin with 95% reporting.

  304. 304
    CaseyL says:

    101,907 (Lamb) to 100,979 (Saccone).

    JFC.

  305. 305
    Baud says:

    @guachi: I don’t know.

  306. 306
    David 🎅🎄Merry Christmas🎄🎅 Koch says:

    Win or Lose

    Dave Wasserman
    ‏@Redistrict

    Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.

    37 replies 324 retweets 787 likes

  307. 307
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    94.9% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 101,907 49.9%
    Rick Saccone (R) 100,979 49.5%

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  308. 308
    Lapassionara says:

    Just checked The Atlantic, and it reports a Libertarian candidate with 1500 or so votes. Really?

  309. 309
    dmsilev says:

    How close is this election? Close enough that the votes for the Libertarian candidate could have been decisive.

  310. 310
    JaneSays says:

    Nevermind, misread the last count. It’s currently a 928 vote margin for Lamb.

    Which will still almost certainly trigger a recount.

  311. 311
    Mary G says:

    Perspective: There are 114 GOP-held seats more competitive than #pa18 based on Cook PVI, per Dem strategist.— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) March 14, 2018

  312. 312
    Fair Economist says:

    @guachi: No state can require a House member to reside in the district, only the state, per the Constitution.

  313. 313
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @debbie: No, we can’t. We can’t even kick them off of the Security Council.

  314. 314

    We all should have gone to therapy with MajorX4.

  315. 315
    NotMax says:

    FYI.

    Pennsylvania uses paper and Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) systems for its elections. The state does not require a voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) when conducting elections. According to the National Academy of Sciences, a voter-verified paper audit trail “consists of physical paper records of voter ballots as voters have cast them on an electronic voting system. In the event that an election recount or audit is called for, the VVPAT provides a supporting record.”
    Pennsylvania recount procedures

    A recount of ballots is required in an election district if three qualified electors in that district file a petition alleging that fraud or error occurred in the tabulation of votes or the marking of election ballots. Petitioners are not required to “specify in their petition the particular act of fraud or error which they believe to have been committed nor to offer evidence to substantiate the allegations of their petition.” The petition must be accompanied by a $50 deposit, which will be retained by election officials if it is determined that fraud or error did not occur. This deposit is due to each county in which a recount is requested.

    The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:

    a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office
    a statewide ballot measure was approved or rejected by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the measure

    Source

  316. 316
    Baud says:

    @Mary G: I’ll take all 114, ma’am.

  317. 317
    Quinerly says:

    @JaneSays: I gotta bad feeling.

  318. 318
    Starfish says:

    @Lapassionara: I swear. I am going to just punch Libertarians in the nuts on principle. There is one dude on Twitter right now saying that United was right in today’s “flight attendant gets a puppy killed” episode.

  319. 319
    EBT says:

    Lamb seems to be squeaking back up as the finish line approaches.

  320. 320
    Baud says:

    New thread.

  321. 321
    lgerard says:

    So Drew Miller, the Libertarian may be the deciding factor for the good guys

    C’mon invisible hand!!

  322. 322
    Another Scott says:

    WaPo:
    95.4% reporting
    Candidate Votes PCT
    Conor Lamb (D) 102,839 50.0%
    Rick Saccone (R) 101,707 49.4%

    (-0.6%, -1132 votes)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  323. 323
    JaneSays says:

    Margin is now 1132 for Lamb.

  324. 324
    mainmata says:

    Doesn’t look like Conor’s going to prevail but, if he does, it would be by almost literally a handful of votes. In any event, it would be a real Pyrrhic victory for the GOP if Saccone wins.

  325. 325

    @Baud:

    New thread.

    Nobody goes there, it’s too crowded.

  326. 326
    BlueDWarrior says:

    Lamb’s margin is edging back up… +1,100 with a handful.

  327. 327
    Lapassionara says:

    @Starfish: Do it!

  328. 328
    WaterGirl says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Maybe we could get a group rate?

  329. 329
    WaterGirl says:

    @mainmata: A win is a win.

  330. 330
    mike in dc says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: The idea of forming a new organization has occasionally been bandied about. It would consist only of the most “democratic” nations of the world. I’d use the criteria of the Democracy Index, where the US is (just barely) a “flawed democracy”, downgraded from “functional democracy”. Hybrid states might have provisional membership, provided they work steadily on internal reforms. Authoritarian states would be excluded.

  331. 331
    Immanentize says:

    @mainmata:
    Trollololol

  332. 332
    patrick II says:

    I am trying to figure out what is the advantage to Republicans of holding back counts and not reporting by precinct in Westmoreland.

  333. 333
    Davebo says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: Actually it could be done. We’d just have to convince Russia to vote for it’s own removal!

    Chapter XVIII, article 108

  334. 334
    hellslittlestangel says:

    Getting the same queasy feeling I had on 11/8/16.

  335. 335
    debbie says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    We can’t even send them to their room for a timeout?

  336. 336
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Davebo: Like I said….

    @debbie: No.

  337. 337
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @hellslittlestangel: Then you are way too emotionally invested in this special election. Do you live in the district?

  338. 338
    hellslittlestangel says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: I don’t need you to tell me how to feel. Thanks, but no thanks.

  339. 339
    jonas says:

    @hellslittlestangel: The fact that this is even close and forced the GOP to pour millions into what should have been a no-brainer safe district is a win. Imagine some Republican coming within .5 percent of ousting a Dem in Berkeley, CA. That’s how nuts Lamb’s candidacy was. And he still might actually win!

    Courage!

  340. 340
    jonas says:

    @El Caganer: If he had nominated Tom Cotton, the bombers would be all but airborne 2 minutes after his confirmation vote. But yeah, Pompeo is going to be bad. How bad, I’m not sure, as long as Mattis is still at Defense, but who knows how long that’s going to last…

  341. 341
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @hellslittlestangel: Not telling you how to feel. Just offering my opinion. Feel free to ignore it.

  342. 342
    Eric S. says:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): I was in therapy 630 to 830 CAT. Trying to get caught up on this thread.

Comments are closed.