Russiagate Open Thread: Has Manafort’s Crony Rick Gates Flipped?

Well, it would explain some of pants-pissing tantrums on His Short-Fingered Lordship’s twitter feed this morning (especially if Trump’s not the only one sending them.) Per the L.A. Times:

A former top aide to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign will plead guilty to fraud-related charges within days – and has made clear to prosecutors that he would testify against Paul J. Manafort Jr., the lawyer-lobbyist who once managed the campaign.

The change of heart by Trump’s former deputy campaign manager, Richard W. Gates III, who had pleaded not guilty after being indicted in October on charges similar to Manafort’s, was described in interviews by people familiar with the case…

Gates’ defense lawyer, Thomas C. Green, did not respond to messages left by phone and email. Peter Carr, a spokesman for special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, declined on Saturday to comment…

The imminent change of Gates’ plea follows negotiations over the last several weeks between Green and two of Mueller’s prosecutors – senior assistant special counsels Andrew Weissmann and Greg D. Andres.

According to a person familiar with those talks, Gates, a longtime political consultant, can expect “a substantial reduction in his sentence” if he fully cooperates with the investigation. He said that Gates is apt to serve about 18 months in prison.

The delicate terms reached by the opposing lawyers, he said, will not be specified in writing: Gates “understands that the government may move to reduce his sentence if he substantially cooperates – but it won’t be spelled out.”

One of the final discussion points has centered on exactly how much cash or other valuables – derived from Gates’ allegedly illegal activity – that the government will require him to forfeit as part of the guilty plea.

Gates, 45, who is married with four children, does not appear to be well positioned financially to sustain a high-powered legal defense…

According to the indictment, Gates and Manafort “laundered the money through scores of United States and foreign corporations, partnerships and bank accounts” and took steps to evade related U.S. taxes.

If Manafort maintains his not-guilty plea and fights the charges at a trial, the testimony from Gates could provide Mueller’s team with first-person descriptions of much of the allegedly illegal conduct. Gates’ testimony, said a person familiar with the pending guilty plea, would place a “cherry on top” of the government’s already-formidable case against Manafort.

The same individual said he did not believe Gates has information to offer Mueller’s team that would “turn the screws on Trump.”

In mid-August 2016, Trump fired Manafort following reports of possibly improper payments he had received from a pro-Russia political party aligned with his longtime client, Viktor Yanukovych, who was Ukraine’s prime minister from 2010 to 2014.

Gates, however, remained with the Trump campaign through the election, serving as a liaison to the Republican National Committee. He also assisted Trump’s inaugural committee.

My emphases. “Mistakes were made. Just not by Mr. Trump.” Uh-huh…

153 replies
  1. 1
    Tom Levenson says:

    I still can’t believe I didn’t invest in popcorn futures last Thursday. I’d be chasing the market now.

  2. 2
    MomSense says:

    Well hot damn.

  3. 3
    Corner Stone says:

    Fucking Rick Santelli is on Meet the Press this Sunday? W.T.F.?

  4. 4
    Miss Bianca says:

    In honor of Yarrow (and where is he these days, anyway?): tick, tock, motherfuckers.

  5. 5
    Corner Stone says:

    @Tom Levenson: “This indictment”. I think popcorn futures have some room to run.

  6. 6
    Lapassionara says:

    I wish I could be happy about this, but I fear our deranged leader is going to try to distract our attention with military action somewhere.

  7. 7
    Corner Stone says:

    How do these two statements square?

    The same individual said he did not believe Gates has information to offer Mueller’s team that would “turn the screws on Trump.”

    Gates, however, remained with the Trump campaign through the election, serving as a liaison to the Republican National Committee. He also assisted Trump’s inaugural committee.

  8. 8
    Tom Levenson says:

    @Corner Stone: ;-)

  9. 9
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    The entire wingnutosphere is in a panic now, claiming that Friday’s indictments “exonerate” Donald when in fact they’re just laying the foundation for coming attractions. Mueller has made Russian interference real. Now comes the domestic angle. Who conspired with the Russians to tamper with the election? Stay tuned!

  10. 10
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Tom Levenson: @Corner Stone: Are popcorn futures the new bitcoin?

  11. 11
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Miss Bianca: Popcorn futures have actual value.

  12. 12
    WaterGirl says:

    @Miss Bianca: I have been wondering about yarrow, also.

  13. 13
    JPL says:

    I think it means that we’ll have more tweets later tonight and in the morning. Manafort needs to stay away from windows and hire a professional food tester. just sayin

  14. 14
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Corner Stone: Flip Gates to put Manafort in an untenable position.

    Flip Manafort to get the big cheeto face.

  15. 15
    WaterGirl says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: I think Manfort is counting on a pardon from Trump.

  16. 16
    Corner Stone says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Popcorn futures have actual value.

    You can’t live off popcorn but at least you’ll go out buttery and salty. So you got that going for you.

  17. 17
    Schlemazel says:

    @Lapassionara:
    If you are enjoying the Olympics in person you may want to get the hell out fast once the closing ceremony has started/

  18. 18
    Baud says:

    @WaterGirl: That doesn’t help Trump because Manafort can then be compelled to testify against Trump.

  19. 19
    Corner Stone says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: Flip Gates? Didn’t he play 2nd base for the 1918 Black Sox?

  20. 20
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @WaterGirl: If he thinks Donald has his back, he’s stupider than I thought.

  21. 21
    Citizen_X says:

    @Miss Bianca:

    Are popcorn futures the new bitcoin?

    Growing corn doesn’t produce enough CO2.

  22. 22
    Lapassionara says:

    @Schlemazel: My thought also.

  23. 23
    Corner Stone says:

    @WaterGirl: Paulie still can’t outrun NY AG. And if he beats the federal rap he may want to make sure no crosstown buses are headed his way.

  24. 24
    JPL says:

    @WaterGirl: I think Manafort is scarred because he has enemies on both sides of the ocean.
    I hate playing the old fashion game of telephone but a friend has a close friend whose friend who works for Trump org. It appears that Don Jr. is acting more erratic than normal. If this goes anywhere Manafort has to flip.

  25. 25
    rikyrah says:

    Has Gates flipped?
    Is water wet?

  26. 26
    Kay says:

    My oldest son and I call days like Friday “Indictment Days” :)

    I’m looking forward to the next one. By the end of this we will finally find out what happened.

    I hope the next round is DNC theft/Wikileaks. That’s fascinating and now we know Wikileaks was working to elect Trump- we next could find out working WITH Trump.

    I don’t care what the NYTimes says. This is much more interesting than Hillary Clinton’s server management. Too bad they chose not to cover it when it was happening. Such a good campaign story! It has everything- money, celebrities, shady corrupt characters, international intrigue, everything but sex. So far, no sex. :)

  27. 27
    Luthe says:

    @Lapassionara: Why bother? He has a school full of dead kids he can exploit. That will last him at least through Tuesday and by then some other scandal will have come along.

  28. 28
    Mike in NC says:

    Several articles in today’s Washington Post are to the effect that Trump’s behavior in the wake of the Parkland shootings mark a new low for him.

  29. 29
    eclare says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: That’s what I was thinking….

  30. 30
    Corner Stone says:

    @JPL:

    I hate playing the old fashion game of telephone but a friend has a close friend whose friend who works for Trump org. It appears that Don Jr. is acting more erratic than normal.

    You want to put $5K down on Erratum to win the fourth at Tallahassee?

  31. 31
    Baud says:

    @Mike in NC:

    Tomorrow, tomorrow
    You’re only a day away.

  32. 32
    JPL says:

    @Corner Stone: nope.. So far my friend has been right though. He does think it’s Manafort that has to flip.

  33. 33
    Mark says:

    What is Michael Flynn up to these days. He planned to cash in big time for his golden years. His fall from grace was fast and furious. It must have been soul crushing to realize his dreams were never going to come true.
    Is he just living off of his military pension? Flipping burgers somewhere? Living in his son’s basement?

  34. 34
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Mike in NC: I didn’t think a new low was possible.

    @Kay:

    I don’t care what the NYTimes says. This is much more interesting than Hillary Clinton’s server management. Too bad they chose not to cover it when it was happening. Such a good campaign story! It has everything- money, celebrities, shady corrupt characters, international intrigue, everything but sex. So far, no sex. :)

    I’m with you. which makes the HRCDS even more palpable. I mean, really? Going into the weeds over email server management when *this* was going on?

    But *thank God*, no sex. Yet. Because with this group of actors you know the sex is going to be, not titillating, but beyond gross to contemplate.

  35. 35
    Amaranthine RBG says:

    @Corner Stone: he was also Curly Neal’s cousin.

  36. 36
    cain says:

    I am enjoy the fuck of watching children trash fox news anchors who have tried to engage them. This is a beaut Love these children.

  37. 37
    Corner Stone says:

    @Kay: I’m hoping for internal memos from the NYT slagging HRC and saying they needed Trump for the clicks and cash.

  38. 38
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:
    I misread Donald in your comment as “Daddy”. I guess it makes sense. The right seems to be clinging Trump like some child.

  39. 39
    Waldo says:

    @Baud: my guess is Manafort will try to run out the clock: Delay the trial as much as possible. Appeal his conviction as far as he can. Wait for the prez pardon. Flee to a non-extradition country. Hope he drops dead at some point along the way.

  40. 40
    Kay says:

    @Corner Stone:

    I don’t buy the market argument. Trump/Russia is a much more clickable story than Clinton’s server.

    Nope. Not markets. It’s something else. Some kind of weird capture or editorial rot.

    As an aside I’m watching the regular CBS news right now and the coverage of the indictments is excellent- clear, thorough, very well explained and they did it in 5 minutes. Bravo! Good job.

  41. 41
    Corner Stone says:

    @Kay: The childish and angry defense put up by all the NYT reporters anytime they are called out tells us there’s something more than just money. There’s a culture there that has been bred over decades to hate HRC and want her destroyed. But I think the bet was also made that Trump is a walking shitshow who would spin off so many more scandals and bullshit than the ones they would have to manufacture against Clinton. That would take actual work. Trump hands them gold on a gold gilted platter 3 damn times a week.

  42. 42
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @Kay:
    As much as I hate the cliche of the Golden Mean, it’s probably a combination of a lot of reasons, not the least of which that media owners are probably Republicans themselves. That and what CS said.

  43. 43
    Baud says:

    WaPo

    Top U.S. officials tell the world to ignore Trump’s tweets

    The world respects us now.

  44. 44
    Mnemosyne says:

    @cain:

    I see the “false flag” squad is already out there calling the survivors liars. 🙄

  45. 45
    tobie says:

    I’m trying to figure out what’s in it for Manafort NOT to flip given that the case against him seems to be pretty solid, many of his assets will be frozen, and what few assets he has will be exhausted by his legal fees. Is he banking on the fact that some nice eastern European oligarchs will take care of him, his wife, and his children in perpetuity? I know this is pure speculation but I am curious why he’s not folding given the odds mounting against him.

  46. 46

    @Villago Delenda Est: My money is on Edward Snowden, for one.

  47. 47
    PhoenixRising says:

    @Corner Stone: Nah, he’s that black guy who teaches at Harvard & got handcuffed going in his own house.

  48. 48
    Starfish says:

    Who is Richard Pinedo? He is someone else who has pleaded guilty in this whole thing.

  49. 49
    lgerard says:

    A couple of weeks ago i got Corey Lewandowski’s and David Bossie’s book Let Trump be Trump from the library. I could not read this in the traditional manner, it was just so poorly written, and in the third person no less! This must be a trump thing.

    I did skim through it though, and one little vignette stuck with me.

    The Scene: An office in the trump tower during the transition. As trump enters the room Hope Hicks informs him that she has Rick Gates on speakerphone from DC.

    trump: “Rick, what are you doing in DC?”
    Gates: ‘I’m in charge of the Inauguration!”
    trump: “Not anymore you not! He is…” (points to a guy who has just arrived bearing trump’s lunch from the Carnegie Deli)

    I’m not sure what point about trump the authors were trying to make with this revelation, but I’m positive any sentient reader reached a different conclusion.

    The most disconcerting things about the book are the constant references to trump as “the boss” and the endless discussions of who is or was loyal, and how central that concept is to trump world. Bossie and Lewandowski seem oblivious to the fact that the portrait they draw of trump is akin to that of a small time mafia figure who doesn’t realize he will be spending the rest of his life in jail once the Feds get around to dealing with him.

    Here’s hoping!

  50. 50
    cain says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    I see the “false flag” squad is already out there calling the survivors liars. 🙄

    Oh yeah, these kids are going to be attacked by the right. Their lives will be taken apart, analyzed and seed conspiracy theories. Emma will be the first and then anybody else who dares speaks out. Russian bots will be trained on her, her computer is going to get hacked, it is only the beginning. They will look for something that makes her not a stellar person. The questions will begin.

    It is a dangerous time to be out front and center. Even for children.

  51. 51
    debbie says:

    Someone needs to talk Trump out of doing this:

    President Trump will host a “listening session” with high school students and teachers on Wednesday, a week after the deadly mass shooting in Florida.

    The White House didn’t say whether Trump will meet with Parkland teens, who have called on the president to do more on gun control and have organized a “March for Our Lives” rally in Washington March 24.

    A White House spokesman Sunday said more details on the event would be forthcoming.

    Trump’s listening session Wednesday will precede CNN’s previously scheduled live townhall in Parkland at 9 pm Wednesday with students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, which lost 17 students, educators and staff in the assault rifle massacre.

    I’d bet this is more to distract from lyin’ CNN’s townhall than to listen to what the students have to say.

  52. 52
    PhoenixRising says:

    @Luthe:

    He has a school full of dead kids he can exploit. That will last him at least through Tuesday

    maybe. The question is, can he last until the next indictment without attacking the surviving kids directly? Teenage girls talking to him like the dim, out-of-touch grandpa they refuse to be hugged by…gotta be triggering for a person of Orange Julius Caesar’s sensitivity.

  53. 53
    Mnemosyne says:

    @tobie:

    Gin & Tonic and others with knowledge of Eastern Europe have said that Manafort has blood on his hands from his actions in Ukraine and Russia. It would be a lot easier for the people who want him dead to reach him in a federal prison than in Trump Tower.

  54. 54
    Baud says:

    @debbie: Lordy, they’re going to find some Stepford kids for that event, aren’t they?

  55. 55
    Corner Stone says:

    @lgerard: I’m not going to read the book but the scene you describe isn’t really in there, is it?

  56. 56
    Brachiator says:

    @cain:

    I am enjoy the fuck of watching children trash fox news anchors who have tried to engage them. This is a beaut Love these children.

    Oh hell yes. These students understand social media and they are past trying to play nice with these Fox News fools.

  57. 57
    Millard Filmore says:

    @WaterGirl:

    I think Manfort is counting on a pardon from Trump.

    If Trump gives out pardons, does the non-national security dirt that Mueller has collected become open to FOIA requests? At the very least, the various entities under the Democratic Party umbrella can go to town with discovery in civil suits.

  58. 58
    Corner Stone says:

    Hoax Hicks

  59. 59
    Miss Bianca says:

    @debbie: a “listening session”? For *Trump*? I’d laugh, but…

  60. 60
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    It is to laugh. DeVos, who spends a good part of her workday trashing federal employees and our system of government, called for congressional hearings.

    She had to say something and of course “congressional hearings” are the best way to not do anything, but don’t they realize how completely full of shit they are? She objects to the existence of the federal government. Why does she want hearings?

  61. 61
    Adria McDowell says:

    @Mark: Meh, Flynn was a General- that pension is faaaaaaaaat. Of course, I don’t know what happens to that pension since he’s a felon now. Maybe trying to save it so his wife will get her share when his traitorous ass kicks off this mortal coil.

    @cain: DRAG HIM, KIDS!!!!

  62. 62
    debbie says:

    @Baud:

    My guess is it will be a high school unvisited by violence. But what’s the over/under as to when Trumps asks a kid if he thinks he’s the greatest president ever?

  63. 63
    Corner Stone says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    Gin & Tonic and others with knowledge of Eastern Europe have said that Manafort has blood on his hands from his actions in Ukraine and Russia.

    Paul’s own daughter texted someone that her dad had blood on his hands.

  64. 64
    Mnemosyne says:

    @debbie:

    I’ll bet that everyone allowed into the “listening session” is going to be very carefully screened to make sure they’re Trump supporters. They may even bring kids in from surrounding high schools to make sure there are no disturbances.

    I would love for it to become a live TV fiasco with Trump being shouted down by angry high school students, but they will not take that chance, unfortunately.

  65. 65
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    Oh, please. Hearings held by the NRA’s hirelings?

  66. 66
    Corner Stone says:

    Jesus but Rick Santelli is a fucking deranged asshole.

  67. 67
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    I almost feel sorry for him. He’s basically a weirdo who is hugely uncomfortable with regular people and children especially seem to unsettle and rattle him.

    They will eat him alive. He won’t know what to do with all that earnestness. Just the visual- my God. Their fresh faces and sincere nervousness, set against this ancient, nasty CYNIC who blathers all that meaningless carnival prattle. I must watch. I have to see that unfold.

  68. 68
    Jay says:

    @tobie:

    Manifort has some money, and some credit. Gate’s didn’t.

    I suspect that Manifort is trying to run out the “money clock” in the hopes of getting a better deal.

  69. 69
    lgerard says:

    @Corner Stone:

    I’m not going to read the book but the scene you describe isn’t really in there, is it?

    Oh yes it is!

    The entire book is nothing more then a string of these little episodes of trump acting in an ignorant, arbitrary and capricious manner with the authors expecting you to believe that these are the signs of a mercurial genius rather then that of a crazy old coot who lives in a fantasy world.

    Even by wingnut standards it is a joke.

  70. 70
    JPL says:

    @debbie: I can’t imagine he is going to have the students who are organizing the marches.
    If he does though, he’ll just lie. It’s what he does.

  71. 71
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    I almost feel sorry for him.

    Fight it. Fight it with every fiber in your being!

  72. 72
    WaterGirl says:

    @Baud: Yeah, but do they know that?

  73. 73
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Kay:

    Oh, sweet Jesus, I forgot that fuckin’ Betsey DeVos will end up being in charge of making schools safer. How is she going to be able to bring herself to interact with actual students and teachers?

  74. 74
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @debbie:
    I hope he doesn’t. I want to see him ragequit when the high school students tell him exactly what they think of him. Today, I had the thought that a big reason that gun control is apparently gaining such traction is now is because of Trump. He’s such an insincere asshole that he’s a representation of everything wrong with the country today and people are responding to that with rage and action in equal parts.

  75. 75
    WaterGirl says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: Not cutting a deal with Mueller before Gates did makes Manafort stupider than I thought. These guys are not very bright.

  76. 76
    Amaranthine RBG says:

    @debbie: oh no, it is a fantastic idea.

    The kids will school him and he will react badly. Hope someone records it.

  77. 77
    Jay S says:

    @tobie:

    Is he banking on the fact that some nice eastern European oligarchs will take care of him, his wife, and his children in perpetuity?

    Staying alive, and keeping bad things from happening to all those people is probably a more realistic motivation.

  78. 78
    JPL says:

    As soon as Trump pardons, Schneiderman steps in. Manafort knows his days are limited and what do you do.

  79. 79
    🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷 says:

    @Mnemosyne:
    Can’t people just lie that they’re T supporters and shout him down anyway?

  80. 80
    Kay says:

    @debbie:

    She hates congressional hearings! She’s still hugely bitter that they had the nerve to ask her some education questions at her confirmation hearing. I love that the US Secretary of Education did not prepare at all for a hearing. What kind of message does that send to students? I mean, Jesus. She didn’t put 15 minutes of work in before showing up and expecting her participation trophy.

    The Florida child-activists will be prepared.

  81. 81

    @Mnemosyne: Perhaps kids from a Christian charter school?

  82. 82
    lgerard says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    Oh, sweet Jesus, I forgot that fuckin’ Betsey DeVos will end up being in charge of making schools safer. How is she going to be able to bring herself to interact with actual students and teachers?

    She’s done a great job protecting schools against bears

  83. 83
    tobie says:

    @Mnemosyne: I must be missing something here. If you don’t want to do time–and that is what Paulie is facing–don’t you try to get a deal? I have it on good authority (i.e., tv crime shows) that you can only get into the witness protection program, if you agree to be a witness. Paul’s wanted on two continents (at least). Witness protection may be his least bad option.

  84. 84
    Baud says:

    Watching the Olympics, I can see why Trump wanted more Norwegian immigrants.

  85. 85
    debbie says:

    @🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷:

    It’s hard to believe it hasn’t occurred to Trump that every single time he opens his mouth or sends a tweet, he’s only making it worse for himself. Deeper and deeper and deeper…

  86. 86
    sukabi says:

    @Kay: plenty of sex, it’s just coming from the sidelines so far with p0rnstars and playboy models. Before this is over it wouldn’t surprise me if drumpfs urine soaked episode is but the tip of a large trafficking operation….

  87. 87
    WaterGirl says:

    @Corner Stone: I just can’t think of any logical reason that Manfort didn’t make sure he cut a deal before Gates.

  88. 88
    WaterGirl says:

    @JPL: Is the thinking that Don, Jr. might be flipping? Or close to flipping?

  89. 89
    Baud says:

    @tobie: Can you imagine him as your next door neighbor?

  90. 90
    Mnemosyne says:

    @🌎 🇺🇸 Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) 🗳 🌷:

    I hope so, and the kids are probably smart enough to do that. It will probably be something like “only the children of registered Republicans will be allowed to attend,” which will not be as reliable an indicator as only permitting the actual registered Republicans.

    They’ll probably also make the kids sit with their parents on the assumption that the parents will keep them under control.

  91. 91
    debbie says:

    @Kay:

    Remember during her confirmation hearing about how she wanted guns in schools to protect against potential grizzly bears? Ask her if any hearts have been broken since then.

  92. 92
    WaterGirl says:

    @Corner Stone: Does god love us that much?

  93. 93
    Baud says:

    A Trump listening session with Barron would be cringe-worthy.

  94. 94
    Mnemosyne says:

    @tobie:

    IANAL or in law enforcement, so I have no idea if Manafort would even qualify for witness protection. But if Adam’s hints are correct and the NY FBI office is mobbed up with Russia, even witness protection ain’t gonna be much protection for very long.

  95. 95
    The Dangerman says:

    @Lapassionara:

    …but I fear our deranged leader is going to try to distract our attention with military action somewhere.

    My fear, too. Trump’s regard for life was shown clearly when he hammed it up for the cameras when he met with survivors, first responders, et al.

    I still can’t believe the POS basically blamed the Florida shooting (where the FBI appears to have screwed up, true enough) on the FBI being too busy chasing him. I don’t believe in Hell, which is too bad, Trump has well earned his reservation there.

  96. 96
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Baud: “Honey, that creepy guy who moved in next door keeps telling me he “knows people” who want to help me on my School Board election campaign.”

  97. 97
    JPL says:

    @WaterGirl: Maybe but definitely raddled. What we know is trump won’t protect his own.

  98. 98
    Obvious Russian Troll says:

    I suspect Manafort is in denial.

    He may also feel that flipping on Trump is more likely to get him and/or his family killed. If he doesn’t flip, sure, he’s probably going to jail but there is a chance that he can either weasel out of it or prolong it enough to die outside of jail.

  99. 99
    tobie says:

    @Jay S: @Mnemosyne: Thanks. I’m a little slow on the uptake but I think I get this now. Better to take a chance and possibly die of old age in prison than to turn state’s witness and suffer a grizzly end at the hands of enemies from abroad.

  100. 100
    Kay says:

    Our 15 year old told us at dinner he’s deciding whether to go out. Strike. So I gave him my theory of collective action, which is basically he needs a critical mass to avoid individual singling out and he has (of course) seen the Triangle Shirtwaist documentary which is required viewing in my house so I think he gets it.

    I figure they need 200 (based on size of school) OR he’s getting an after school, which is not the end of the world and he’ll just have to suck it up. He thinks 100 is enough.

    That’s a heavy lift here, 200. This is Righty-land. I know you-all want me to tell him to boldly stride out alone but he’s actually a friendly, easy-going person who likes to get along so I don’t want him out there without a crowd :)

  101. 101
    Jay says:

    @WaterGirl:

    While there is some truth to the “first come, first served” theory of plea bargains,

    There is also the “value” theory, where in holding out as long as you can, increases what you get.

    Gates gives Meuller Manifort, who does Manifort give Meuller?

  102. 102
    Pupjoint says:

    :Chant for the kids when they march on Washington 3-24-18:

    Hey-Hey, NRA! How many kids did you kill today?

  103. 103
    Lapassionara says:

    @The Dangerman: The FBI was the last line of defense. The State of Florida had more info on this kid than the FBI had, and did nothing. Rick Scott also failed to mention that Florida law would not have allowed any helpful intervention in this case.

    Please, do not buy into the FBI messed up here idea.

  104. 104
    japa21 says:

    @The Dangerman: Still having trouble seeing how the FBI could have done anything differently that would have stopped this. They couldn’t arrest Cruz, they couldn’t put a 24 hour watch on him. If anything the bigger failure was by the State of Florida and Broward County Sheriff’s Department.

  105. 105
    sukabi says:

    @WaterGirl: logical reason? Manafort strikes me as being very much like Drumpf, except not affected by mental disease. Arrogant and narcissistic. He’s gotten away with all his crap until now, probably thinks he can talk his way out of this one too. He did file a suit against Mueller claiming he didn’t have the authority to look into his money laundering activities.

  106. 106
    efgoldman says:

    @Mike in NC:

    Trump’s behavior in the wake of the Parkland shootings mark a new low for him.

    More like dragging along bouncing at the bottom of the valley

  107. 107
    Corner Stone says:

    @WaterGirl:

    I just can’t think of any logical reason that Manfort didn’t make sure he cut a deal before Gates.

    I am not an expert but IMO, if he took a deal he would have to detail at length all the dirty shit he knows about re: Russians. Their money, their businesses, the murders. If he does that he’s dead, and not of old age in a jail cell. His family also probably finds their way to a meat butchering plant in Chicago. Also too.

  108. 108
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Kay: Wow. Well, more power to him if he can get 200 of his fellow students in your neck of the woods to come out. We’d really know that a sea change is breaking if *that* happened.

    I wish all teachers were unionized. It would be so awesome to see teachers out there with the students, but I can fucking imagine what would happen if all *teachers* decided to call a national strike.

  109. 109
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Kay: Hell, I’m an asshole and I would never get wokier-than-thou with a fifteen year old.

  110. 110
    MomSense says:

    @Miss Bianca:

    Aren’t we up to two sex scandals now with the playmate and the stripper?

  111. 111
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Kay:

    the Triangle Shirtwaist documentary which is required viewing in my house

    You are hardcore!

  112. 112
    Miss Bianca says:

    @MomSense: Oh, God, you’re right. I was blanking those out.

  113. 113
    mai naem mobile says:

    @Corner Stone: mark my words, Rick Santelli will die on live teevee stroking out. Those angergasm screaming fits he dies are not good for your heart.

  114. 114
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Kay:

    Actually, you’re totally right — for a collective action, there is safety in numbers. The more kids there are who go out, the harder it is for the school to punish anyone in particular. As I was saying to Adam last night, if the whole student body goes on strike the same day, what are they going to do, expel every student? It’s not like they can get scab students to fill those slots.

  115. 115
    lgerard says:

    I think they simply have Manafort cold on too many charges. He is not going to get any 18 month sentence by pleading, and at his age he simply thinks it is better to drag it out for as long as possible.

  116. 116
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Kay:

    he has (of course) seen the Triangle Shirtwaist documentary which is required viewing in my house

    I adore you, Kay.

  117. 117
    efgoldman says:

    @Waldo:

    Wait for the prez pardon.

    Not that he’d understand, but I’m sure Tomato Torquemada’s lawyers have told him over and over that pardoned people can be compelled to testify.

  118. 118
    The Dangerman says:

    @japa21:

    Still having trouble seeing how the FBI could have done anything differently…

    I’ve read they had a January 5th phone call that didn’t go where it should have gone (big, BIG mistake)…

    …that would have stopped this.

    True, the FBI couldn’t have done much beyond reporting the 1/5 tip tot he locals and, effectively, the locals probably couldn’t have done much of anything, either. Maybe up the security at the school. I don’t think they would have a case for confinement or confiscation but IANAL.

  119. 119
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Miss Bianca:

    I wish all teachers were unionized. It would be so awesome to see teachers out there with the students, but I can fucking imagine what would happen if all *teachers* decided to call a national strike.

    My other thought yesterday is that it may actually be more effective if all of the students go on strike and the teachers show up to spend the day in their empty classrooms. Makes it more clear that this is what the students are demanding, not those thugs from the teachers’ unions.

  120. 120
    MomSense says:

    @Miss Bianca:

    I think we will have a bunch of them soon given the story in the New Yorker.

    And for maximum creep factor, he told both the playmate and the stripper that they look like Ivanka.

    Ewwwww

  121. 121

    @japa21: Which is another reason we have to limit access to guns. People couldn’t fix the kid or even see he needed fixing. We can’t count on that.

    We need a variety of fixes, each one contributing some part but none fixing things by itself.

  122. 122
    Mnemosyne says:

    I felt compelled to get up and make some popcorn. I blame debbie and her post about the “listening session,” which I am now wishing a motherfucker would.

  123. 123
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @MomSense: I don’t pity them, but the Large Adult Children are deeply, deeply damaged.

  124. 124
    JMG says:

    @Corner Stone: The “individual” quoted is almost certainly Gates’ plea bargain lawyer, who is signaling that if pardons are being considered, how about his client, too.

  125. 125
    batguano says:

    @Kay: it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that the Russian bots drove clicks to Clinton scandal stories to skew the media coverage

  126. 126
    Corner Stone says:

    @mai naem mobile: Dammit. You got to “live” from “love”. I was *this* close.

  127. 127
    Starfish says:

    @japa21: When the FBI comes to talk to kids about their misdeeds, it leaves an impression.

  128. 128
    Shana says:

    @Pupjoint: There have been people demonstrating outside the NRA headquarters on the 14th of every month since Sandy Hook and it hasn’t had any noticeable effect. I hope to G*d this time it’s different but I’m not holding my breath.

  129. 129
    Steve in the ATL says:

    What is on fox News right now? A show called “scandalous” talking about bill Clinton and Paula Jones.

  130. 130
    Corner Stone says:

    @lgerard:

    She’s done a great job protecting schools against bears

    Why is she trying to keep Adam Silverman out of public schools?

  131. 131
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    @Miss Bianca: My favorite kind of teacher strike is a “work to the rule” strike, where they only work the hours they’re paid for, making it clear just how much teachers do on their own time and own dime.

  132. 132
    Miss Bianca says:

    @MomSense: Please, please, no more on that theme. I am hoping to preserve *some* appetite for dinner!

  133. 133
    sukabi says:

    @Kay: after reading some of the teachers accounts lately of “active shooter” drills they run in the schools, and the affect those drills have on the students, particularly kids that already have experienced violence or trauma….I’m confused as to why this is an acceptable response to the mass murder of students.

    That said, I think your son and his friends all KNOW that the drills do nothing to actually prevent a slaughter. The drills represent an absolute failure by those that could legislate change to act. I think he’ll have more company than you think.

  134. 134
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I had to go get this line from Manhunter (1986), talking about a serial killer:

    My heart bleeds for him, as a child. Someone took a kid and manufactured a monster. At the same time, as an adult, he’s irredeemable.

  135. 135
    efgoldman says:

    @debbie:

    It’s hard to believe it hasn’t occurred to Trump that every single time he opens his mouth or sends a tweet, he’s only making it worse for himself.

    When the scorpion stings the frog, they both die. Scorpion can’t help himself, it’s in his nature.
    Orange Crush has no goddamned idea at all that everything he says/tweets digs the hole deeper. Between his ignorance, stupidity and narcissism, he’s absolutely convinced of his rightness

  136. 136
    James E. Powell says:

    @Corner Stone:

    The childish and angry defense put up by all the NYT reporters anytime they are called out tells us there’s something more than just money. There’s a culture there that has been bred over decades to hate HRC and want her destroyed.

    This has been my view for the last few years. Somebody up top absolutely hates the Clintons and Hillary especially. The lower downs, the reporters, may not know why, but they know that slamming & smearing Hillary Clinton, even without facts, will get them promoted and protected.

  137. 137
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    So I just watched “Black Panther”. Wow! Very interesting moral questions it raised, a movie with a huge moral message way beyond the standard superhero stuff.

    And great female role models.

  138. 138
    Gerald Parks says:

    Sooo the shit …. continues to hit the fan and blow accross the faces of RW America, its blatantly unstable genius, bought and paid for Republican Congess AND its propaganda arrmy of Fox and related media friends!
    The stench alone is nauseous, the spectacle itself …frightening!
    How long will it take to repair the damage to OUR democracy and Nation?

  139. 139
    Jeffro says:

    @The Dangerman:

    Trump’s regard for life was shown clearly when he hammed it up for the cameras when he met with survivors, first responders, et al.

    He’ll have his Greg Stillson moment (hopefully only metaphorically).

    Wait…metaphorically speaking, that’s pretty much all he does: hold up others to shield him from attack. Never mind.

  140. 140
    WaterGirl says:

    @Corner Stone: in all fairness, if I don’t know what to do, sometimes I just do nothing. It’s like I’m the deer in the headlights. Maybe that’s him at this point. Just hoping it will all go away.

  141. 141
    Jeffro says:

    @Mike in NC: Max Boot and Ruth Marcus really let him have it, using the same kinds of examples that BJers have been using for 18 months now. We all deserve a pat on the back!

  142. 142
    MisterForkbeard says:

    @The Dangerman: One of the under-reported bits of this story is that local cops had already been made aware and had visited the guy repeatedly. I think… 39 times within the last year?

    Maybe an additional visit by the FBI would have changed something, but it’s really hard to lock someone up preventatively in this country. Or take away their guns.

  143. 143
    Chet Murthy says:

    @Kay: Kay, I know you don’t need validation, but I feel like saying it anyway: you’re doing the right thing. You’re teaching your child that collective action matters. And that alone, we’re each powerless, but together, there is great power.
    That gestures are less important than demonstrating power. This is all important, and not too soon, is he learning it.

    For myself, I think the goal of these youth must be to get entire school bodies to walk out. B/c only then will people realize how important this is. And only then will it become something positive, instead of something negative.

  144. 144
    oldgold says:

    One possible explanation for Manafort not being particularly concerned about Gates turning first is that he has much more valuable evidence to offer than Gates.

    Another possible explanation is that Manafort is the end target of this thread of the investigation and as such has not been offered a deal

  145. 145
    Gelfling 545 says:

    @Mnemosyne: Teachers, union or not, are prohibited by law from striking and fined 2 days pay for each day on strike. Not the we haven’t, mind you, but it’s costly.

  146. 146
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Gelfling 545:

    Yet another reason for teachers to show up and the students to strike. Though they’ll probably blame your bad influence and dock your pay anyway. 🙄

  147. 147
    J R in WV says:

    @sukabi:

    Manafort strikes me as being very much like Drumpf, ….he did file a suit against Mueller claiming he didn’t have the authority to look into his money laundering activities.

    Now that’s delusional… Mueller can look into any illegal activity whatsoever he finds in the course of his investigation. Smoked pot? Busted!

    Manafort is so used to being chief dude in charge of complex and illegal operations in foreign countries that he is completely unable to adjust to this new situation, where he has no power whatsoever, and a federal civil servant has the power to lock him up, even before trial.

    I’m so glad to see Manafort squirming. He’s a monster, he makes Nixon look like an an honest politician.

  148. 148
    J R in WV says:

    @Gelfling 545:

    Barred by law and fined 2 days pay for each day on strike? Where? ‘Cause that’s a state-level regulation, that probably won’t hold water in court. You must live in a very right wing place to have that kind of law about teachers. Maybe you should get a job tending bar?

  149. 149
    Jacel says:

    @debbie: I suspect that those Florida students and teachers will be forced to do a lot of listening in Trump’s “listening session”.

  150. 150
    OGLiberal says:

    @lgerard: I worked at a company that was the result of the merger of two separate companies. Folks from the one half told fond stories of the late founder and CEO of their half. Almost every story made me think to myself, “what a misogynist, rude, crude, mean dick!” But they loved him, even if the stories were about him degrading the storyteller. In the business world, being an insufferable douche is often seen as “strong” and “genius”. And that these people continually rise to the top is a big reason we are where we are today

  151. 151
    WaterGirl says:

    @Jacel: After the thumbs up and the big grin, I hope nobody shows. Not a single person.

  152. 152
    Sm*t Cl*de says:

    @tobie:

    Is he banking on the fact that some nice eastern European oligarchs will take care of him, his wife, and his children in perpetuity?

    I don’t know about perpetuity, but there are nice Eastern European oligarchs keen to keep Manafort alive and conscious for a surprisingly long time.

  153. 153
    Corner Stone says:

    @OGLiberal:

    In the business world, being an insufferable douche is often seen as “strong” and “genius”. And that these people continually rise to the top is a big reason we are where we are today

    The assholes are winning. There is no doubt. I’ve watched them consolidate power and turf in a number of areas. That’s what business rewards, just like what Trump voters rewarded.

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