The Stupid Party Strikes Again

Soooo… The government will reopen, McConnell will never schedule a clean vote on DACA, and even if he does it will never pass the House, we get to do this again in a few weeks, and the Dreamers will rightfully hate Democrats.

Awesome!






221 replies
  1. 1
    Davebo says:

    I’m really hoping we’ll be surprised. If not, the 2018 wave will end up being a ripple but then we shouldn’t be shocked that Dem’s are spineless.

    McConnell promises he won’t cum in your mouth. You swallow.

  2. 2
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    The government will reopen, McConnell will never schedule a clean vote on DACA, and even if he does it will never pass the House,

    I agree this is all too likely

    and the Dreamers will rightfully hate Democrats.

    maybe, maybe not, and definitely not “rightfully”

    Focus that energy on voter registration in NV, AZ, TX and FL and maybe things can be turned. Get all emo and form a circular firing squad, we are well and truly fucked. (edited)

  3. 3
    laura says:

    I hated Sophie’s Choice then and I hate it more so now.

  4. 4
    knyazhna says:

    Dear experienced commenters, is there a way to contact senators during the shutdown to yell at them not to cave? Everyone I called doesn’t take messages.

  5. 5
    Mnemosyne says:

    So has this vote actually happened, or is this a rumor that it might happen? Because the government can’t re-open until the Senate votes again.

  6. 6

    @Mnemosyne: Looks like it will happen, if they haven’t already.

    Goddamnit.

  7. 7
    Belafon says:

    The scenario over the last four months is that we’ve never had a vote on DACA, and it most likely wouldn’t have passed the House had there been one. So, the difference now is that Democrats have once again pushed Republicans to have to go on record of promising a vote but then reneging.

    I hate it, but we’re in the stage right now where all Democrats can do is try to push the Republicans to vote. Until we get control of a house, all we can do is what Republicans have done for a long time. And, even if we manage to control both chambers at the end of the year, all we can do is send bills to Trump’s desk; we won’t be able to make him sign them.

  8. 8
    tobie says:

    Damnit! They really have no guts.

  9. 9
    WaterGirl says:

    Well, fuck.

  10. 10

    It hasn’t happened yet but we can always trust the inner R of our blog host to jump in to criticize the Ds first.

  11. 11
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Mnemosyne: The vote was scheduled for noon. It has slipped as they’re not done negotiating.

    What appears to be the strategy is to give McConnell, and to a lesser extent Ryan, enough rope to hang themselves. Reopen today for 3 weeks with a promise that DACA is addressed forthwith. When that doesn’t happen, when the next CR vote comes up on February 8th, then it is far easier to leverage the shutdown via strategic messaging. In this case: we took the GOP leadership – the President, the Majority Leader, the Speaker – at their word. They lied to us, they lied to Senators Graham and Flake, and they lied to the American people. Now we have to hold the line on behalf of the American people.

    That’s my take from the reporting.

    ETA: Schumer is confirming this in the remarks he’s making now.

  12. 12
    James E. Powell says:

    Can it be that the Democratic Party is led by a bunch of cheese-brained losers? This isn’t rolling over like they did for George W Bush – Our Great War Leader. But it is a concession that will gain them nothing with the voters they need to be in flames next November.

    One of the things that the Republicans do – and have done since Reagan – is paint the road ahead with bright lines. Their policy positions are often insane or unobtainable, but they put them out there nonetheless because they know it is how they keep their voters loyal and animated.

  13. 13
    cintibud says:

    So, does the continuing resolution end sometime around Feb 8th and if there is no DACA vote the government shuts down again? I don’t see a particular problem with that. However if it’s to keep the government funded a long time, then this is a monumental blunder by the Dems as they know they can’t trust the pubs on anything.

    Please tell me it’s the former

  14. 14
    raven says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Oh come on, let’s totally freak out. . . again.

  15. 15
    Eric says:

    My guess is the dem position is polling poorly in dem internal polls. I know it polls badly in the. Media.

  16. 16
    aimai says:

    Oh stop it. Jus stop it. A CR that keeps the government open for a while longer is to a loss. Forcing McConnell to go on record and break his word again is not a loss–it is part of a longer struggle. You get to the point of diminishing returns with any brinksmanship. They were not going to get a DACA vote no matter what the Dems did right now. No way. So the government was going to stay closed and the pressure that that exerts on the Dems as well as the repubs, and the harm that is done to lots of people, was not negligible. Now DACA is in the same position as before but some of the pressure on the Dems to compromise has come off. This is the opposite of compromise, it simply ratchets up the pressure on the republicans to find a solution.

  17. 17
    randy khan says:

    For what it’s worth, if the reports are right, this represents at least some progress, with another deadline looming in just a couple of weeks. It’s not the outcome I want, but if McConnell bails on the promise to hold a vote, then it’s another cudgel to use against the Republicans.

    I think a little bit of the pressure came off when the district court judge ruled that the government couldn’t rescind DACA. (For what it’s worth, I don’t think that ruling will survive the appeal, but right now it’s still in place.)

  18. 18
    Percysowner says:

    @knyazhna: Try Resistbot They will send a fax or message to your Senators or Representatives. My Republican Senator Rob Portman NEVER answers his phone and often has his voicemail full, so I use Resistbot all the time. At least it gives them a paper copy to ignore, instead of just clearing voicemail. I throw them money every month to keep working, because I really prefer to write my people anyway.

  19. 19
    Belafon says:

    Stop being pissed at Democrats for trying to find a solution that is a step beyond where we are now. All of your anger should be directed toward Republicans for all of the shit we are in.

  20. 20
    randy khan says:

    @cintibud:

    It’s the former.

  21. 21
    randy khan says:

    @raven:

    LOL. It’s our special talent as Democrats.

  22. 22
  23. 23
    sdhays says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, I want to see the Democrats stomp the Republicans’ face to the curb as much as anyone, but a couple weeks is not caving. I’m going to postpone my freakout.

  24. 24
    cintibud says:

    @randy khan: Thanks. If that is the case, I don’t understand the anger at the Dems. Looks like another strategic step.

  25. 25
    SteveinSC says:

    I guess I trust the Democrats to be making as clever a choice as the Republicans and for me, a fire-breather, take no prisoners sort of person, that’s saying something. The thunder and ground shaking of the weekend women’s/resistance marches was not lost on Democrats as well as Republicans. Fuck-up and expect to be primaried.

  26. 26
    Barbara says:

    Democrats don’t have a majority in the Senate or the House. This is what it means. Wishing for superpowers won’t actually confer them. Need to work harder not give up entirely.

  27. 27
    O. Felix Culpa says:

    It’s far from a done deal. And the Dems are not giving the store away, as far as I can tell. More WaPo:

    Still, as of mid-morning, the bill did not appear to have the 60 votes needed to advance, according to White House legislative affairs director Marc Short and several senators.

    “I think right now we’re still a few votes short,” Short said in an interview with the Fox Business Network. “I’m not quite sure we’ll get to 60.”

    Democrats said they were open to considering a written pledge but said the specifics would matter. “Trust but verify,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).

  28. 28
    sdhays says:

    @aimai: And hopefully they’ll be more focused this time because the Democrats have demonstrated that, yes, they will withhold their cloture votes over this and make Preznit Dollhands miss his parties.

  29. 29
    germy says:

    The GOP is the stupid party.

    Trump known to use an Indian accent to imitate India's prime minister: report https://t.co/NyJyq4sVf8 pic.twitter.com/l2ZlNsQS5s— The Hill (@thehill) January 22, 2018

  30. 30
    pamelabrown53 says:

    @Adam L Silverman: #11.
    Thanks for a thoughtful comment rather than knee jerk emotionalism. David Leonhardt of the FTFNYT has an interesting perspective that iis opposite of Cole’s. p.m. carpenter agrees.

  31. 31
    🌷 Martin says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Yep. And my guess is that Schumer only agreed to this because he trusts that he has Graham, Flake and others in his camp regarding the next vote. This kicks the whole problem back over to the House, so all Senators win.

  32. 32
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @cintibud: Nope, three week CR. Then we’re right back where we are now.

    There are some important things to understand here:
    1) No new Federal hires will be inprocessed or onboarded in the next 3 weeks because of the threat of another shutdown. This keeps a significant number of people in limbo waiting to start new jobs.
    2) All Federal hiring processes will begin again – applications will be scored and referred as qualified to hiring authorities/hiring committees, but that will be about it. So if you’ve go a packet in the process (hello!!!) there will likely be some movement, but not a lot.
    3) No contracting officers will allow any contractor to be onboarded and inprocessed during the next three weeks so as not to be on the hook for the costs if the government shuts down three weeks from now.
    4) No new contracts will be approved because there is no guarantee that the government will stay open three weeks from now.

    And a whole bunch more.

  33. 33
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @raven: Sure, knock yourselves out.

  34. 34
    sixthdoctor says:

    At least there’s a burn:

    Chuck Schumer says that he hasn't spoken to Trump since Friday and that the White House refused to engage in negotiations over the weekend: "The great deal-making president sat on the sidelines." (via CBS) pic.twitter.com/IpLWreLJXv— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 22, 2018

  35. 35
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Belafon: Did you get the email I sent you?

  36. 36
    pamelabrown53 says:

    @aimai: #16.

    So agree, aimai. Glad you can be relied on to respond with a critical thinking analysis.

  37. 37
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    Can someone please explain something to me. I have seen a lot of “I am no longer being paid” “My income has just shrunk by half”. WWR said he spoke to a Secret Service agent and said “are you being paid” and he said “nope”. None of this can be totally true. I know the military are paid twice a month, on the 15th and the 30th. Presumably the government workers are paid on the same schedule. So everyone would have been paid on the 15th of January before the government shut down. They would not expect another paycheck until January 30th. So to state “my income has now shrunk by half” is not true as of today and will not be true until the 30th. I understand people have been “furloughed” and in some cases are not expecting to be paid, but didn’t the last time this happened all wages earned during the furloughed period get repaid? How much money did people actually lose. I apologize for being a bit dense here but it seems there has been a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth about things that will not actually happen until January 30th if at all? Anyone?

  38. 38
    dmsilev says:

    @Adam L Silverman: That’s how I read things as well. Look at all of the CRs so far, and you see a clear pattern of hardening D resistance. If there is a deal with McConnell and he flat-out breaks it in just two weeks (hardly impossible), the next round is going to be worse with all of (presumed) yes voters this time saying ‘we trusted you and you lied’.

  39. 39
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @SteveinSC:

    and for me, a fire-breather, take no prisoners sort of person

    Please let us know in advance when you intend to take Fort Sumter.

  40. 40
    Fester Addams says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    No contracting officers will allow any contractor to be onboarded and inprocessed

    Just curious, do you also say “uppick your coat and onput it”?

  41. 41
    Turgidson says:

    If Mitch McConnell wasn’t a soulless, cruel piece of shit who lies as casually as he draws breath, and the caucus he led wasn’t full of retrograde, lying filth, I’d be fine with this maneuver. But he is and it is. I’ll hold out hope that this works out as intended, but there’s no reason to expect Turtle or his lemmings to keep their word. Guess we’ll know by Feb. 8.

  42. 42
    Belafon says:

    I hate the shutdown, but it was necessary for Democrats to force it, otherwise we wouldn’t have gotten any focus on CHIP or DACA. The best Democrats can do, though, is force Republicans to say they’re going to hold a vote. Their next job is to keep the focus on whether Republicans will do it. Our job is to make Republicans pay for using people as hostages.

  43. 43

    I am also saving my freakout. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they’re getting clobbered in internals for this—the republican “holding children hostage for illegal immigrants” BS seems to have won the spin wars. When Mitch does nothing or something in obvious bad faith in a couple weeks, they can do it again, from a better position, and with CHIP funding already passed.

    Edit: actually I don’t know if this CR includes CHIP funding

  44. 44
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So G should still apply for the Library of Congress internship he has his eye on, but not expect to hear back anytime soon?

  45. 45
    Piggy McPigface says:

    Personally, I am not sure how the dreamers (or anybody else) can “rightfully” hate the Dems for what the Republican controlled House does… Would you care to elaborate? If you have a plan that cuts out the house, I’d love to hear it. It could come in handy in many situations.

  46. 46
    SteveinSC says:

    @Adam L Silverman: You must have skipped American history, that was 1861. Dumb-ass.

  47. 47
    Belafon says:

    @Adam L Silverman: I can’t check my email at work. I will look this evening.

  48. 48
    MJS says:

    O.K., I’m too lazy to read any of the links. Is long-term CHIP funding included?

  49. 49
    trollhattan says:

    @aimai:
    I take this as a signal Frank Luntz did some emergency Republican voter focus groups over the weekend and discovered too many blame Trump and the R congress for them to safely proceed with the shutdown. Otherwise the Republicans would let the Dems twist in the wind for awhile.

  50. 50
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @pamelabrown53: @🌷 Martin: The issue is going to be the House side. I doubt there’s any agreement with Ryan, or that even if there was he’d abide by it. So the real issue is going to be that even if McConnell maintains his commitment on the Senate side, it is likely that once again you’ll have something that makes reasonable, compromised reform on immigration pass the Senate with 60 plus votes and then never even be brought to the floor of the House because of the Hastert Rule (no, the other one – not the one about never leaving Hastert alone with the Congressional pages).

  51. 51
    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes says:

    OT – My amazing trip ended this morning with a stunning view of the Laotian countryside and a bareback ride on an elephant. The fact that I’m now stuck in the Hanoi airport due to the heavy snow jamming up Narita in Tokyo doesn’t diminish that. I loved all of our destinations, but of the lot of them, Laos was the unexpected treasure – it blew me away.

    May be two days to get out. We only had a single entry Vietnam visa, so that’s a problem – JAL says they may be able to get the restriction waived and a hotel room, but I have doubts.

    I think I’m sleeping in this business lounge tonight. At least there’s a shower and food….

  52. 52
    rikyrah says:

    February 8th?

    Really?
    seriously?

  53. 53
    patroclus says:

    I think this is a good move. Put CHIP in the bag, shorten the CR, put Yertle’s word to the test and come back in 17 days with the same leverage and a long list of more policy accomplishments to be demanded on each and every CR this year. Which promise to be numerous because we clearly won’t have an omnibus budget deal til the Dems take control next year. Durbin has been playing this well. Kudos.

  54. 54
    Steeplejack says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Schumer held water glass with one hand, unlike the president. Strong like bull!

    ETA: And he’s remembering to stay hydrated!

  55. 55
    bemused says:

    @germy:

    Of course he did. He’s basically one of those rich, privileged, obnoxious, white middle school boys from hell that all the kids, teachers and principals hate.

  56. 56
    Dave says:

    @Belafon: Right more I think on this is it’s probably a smart move. McConnell will almost certainly break it and so will Ryan but that will occur in an environment where there maybe actual scrutiny and therefore an actual cost to bad faith behavior. And that behavior won’t end until there is a significant cost applied to it. I hate that this is risking the Dreamers but because of the ugly bigotry and dishonesty at the heart of the GOP that was always going to be the case.

  57. 57
    Cheryl Rofer says:

  58. 58
    Rommie says:

    Yeah, I’m not too upset at this move. They haven’t backed down – yet. If Lucy hold the ball they get the vote they want. If Lucy pulls the ball, Mr. Brown better be ready to throw hands or they’ll deserve to get called on their Jell-o spines.

    This is just the part of the feral cat fight where they’ve rolled around a few seconds and are back to the stare-down.

  59. 59
    b says:

    Not sure with all the complaining that everyone understands all the consequences of being shutdown.

    I am a federal contractor that works at a federal site. If I am lucky, I am deemed essential (or my funding does not rely on the CR and the Contracting Officer understands the rules) and continue to work and get paid. I’ve been on both sides (working and not working) on past shutdowns.

    Many low level federal contractors that work at federal sites will not be deemed essential and will not be paid. Unlike federal employees, they will never be paid for the lost time. This includes cafeteria workers, cleaning crews, etc. Going without pay for any length of time is devastating to these people. Even many middle class federal contractors will have trouble missing a paycheck (or two or three).

    Keep in mind that these people (many are Democrats) will suffer greatly under a shutdown before you complain that the Democratic leadership is caving. And the number of federal contractors that is impacted is not small. While I agree that fixing DACA is imperative, it is also important that we not screw over our fellow citizens.

  60. 60
    trollhattan says:

    Not that I’d do anything other than run away from a joint called “Uncle Jack’s Steakhouse” here’s another chain-owning prick who thinks his employees should be grateful he gives them a place out of the rain.

    William Jack Degel, the founder of the Uncle Jack’s Steakhouse restaurant chain in New York, appeared on “Fox & Friends” Monday to rant against raising the minimum wage — and he wound up insulting both his own customers and his own waiting staff.

    When asked about what will happen to businesses like his when minimum wage hikes go into effect in 12 different states this year, Degel said that consumers will get “insulted” and stop coming to his restaurants if he tries to raise prices to make up the difference in raising the minimum wage. “They’re not educated, they don’t understand what’s happening,” he said of customers who get angry about price increases.

    He seems nice.

  61. 61
    SteveinSC says:

    The Russian bots are pushing the SchumerShutdown hard according to the hyper-ventilators. Somebody who runs twitter has to do something about it, since the traitor in the White House won’t.

  62. 62
    Fair Economist says:

    The Democrats got a deal for a vote on DACA, so they didn’t cave or back down. If McConnell reneges, then they block the next CR. What’s the problem?

  63. 63
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt: Yes. The next pay date is the end of the month. So technically no one has not been paid. That said, there is never a guarantee that Congress will authorize pay for uniformed and civilian personnel, whether the civilians were essential or not. So a lot of people immediately default to: I’m being asked to work and I won’t get paid or I’ve been furloughed and I’m not going to get paid.

  64. 64
    Hildebrand says:

    Working out this deal also squelches the press’s desire to take Republican messaging seriously (wherein the they try to say that all of this is happening because Democrats favor ‘illegal aliens’ (ET with a rap sheet?) over the troops). I know this shouldn’t be a major consideration, but that’s the world we live in.

  65. 65
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    The deal with also only keep the government open until Feb 8th. So if the Republican’s play Lucky with the football then it’s another shut down.

  66. 66
    Fair Economist says:

    @SteveinSC:

    Somebody who runs twitter has to do something about it, since the traitor in the White House won’t.

    There’s a problem with that involving who is a major investor in Twitter.

  67. 67
    Irony Abounds says:

    Even those legislation supporting the Dreamers is generally popular, I don’t think it is as popular if it is the reason for the shutdown. Blame is being spread pretty evenly now, and the Dems can’t afford to be in a tie game with Republicans right now. Winning at least one house, and preferably two in 2018 is absolutely necessary to pull this country back from the Trump abyss. If doing that means compromising a bit before the elections it’s ok in my book. Getting a firm promise now works. If McConnell reneges or the House votes it down, then everything swings in the Dems’ favor.

  68. 68
    cleek says:

    since everybody knows this is a temporary CR based on allowing DACA vote, McConnell reneging on the deal would put the next shut-down squarely on his shoulders. even the press would be able to understand that.

    there’s no need for freak-outs or panicking or rending of garments.

  69. 69
    bemused says:

    Speaking of Ryan and McConnell, we caught some of their bald-faced lying on the floor this weekend. Even though you know that’s what they do, just hearing them spew on and on made us ill. It’s mindboggling Orweillian.

  70. 70
    pamelabrown53 says:

    @Major Major Major Major: #43.

    I, too, am saving my “freakout”. I think if the government reopens then we/Dems have a better chance for focused messaging which can help the Dreamers. Right now, the dems are protecting “illegal immigrants” over everything has gained too much currency.

  71. 71
    tobie says:

    What I don’t get is why the Dems agreed to McConnell’s pledge to hold a vote on DACA after Feb 8. Feb 8 is when the next CR vote is. I would think that if the Dems want leverage over the Republicans, they would need a vote on DACA on or before Feb 8. Can someone explain?

  72. 72
    Marcopolo says:

    @Adam L Silverman: This sounds about right to me. The end all sticky point is an open DACA vote in the House. DACA passes in the House if it gets an open vote, otherwise nada. And what leverage do the D’s have to force that vote?

    They get leverage by having the R’s commit to a vote then reneging. They get leverage by having a

  73. 73
    Tilda Swintons Bald Cap says:

    @raven: Ha ha, yes.

  74. 74
    msdc says:

    @sdhays: Yeah, if we had to have a short-term shutdown, this past weekend was absolutely perfect timing. Make Trump look like an idiot on his one-year mark, keep him from going to his shitty party, and then get back to work.

    I’m willing to withhold judgment on the Dems’ tactics until we see the final disposition of DACA. I’m not willing to sit through another goddamned circular firing squad.

  75. 75
    🌷 Martin says:

    @Barbara:

    Democrats don’t have a majority in the Senate or the House. This is what it means. Wishing for superpowers won’t actually confer them. Need to work harder not give up entirely.

    Right. I think it’s notable that the Dems currently have enough Republicans on board to keep the GOP below 50. Don’t underestimate how frustrated guys like Flake are with the bomb-throwers in the House. Schumer isn’t making this about Dems vs GOP and forcing Senators to choose. He’s making this about the independence of the Senate from the WH and the House and getting folks like Graham and Flake on board. There’s been almost no narrative out of Schumer that plays to the Dem base. It’s all been focused on issues where he has bipartisan agreement and casting it as the WH and the House just assuming the Senate will roll over and do what they want – which McConnell hasn’t been protecting against.

    It’s a pretty interesting dynamic now that McConnell isn’t seen as a key player in the negotiation – Schumer is. Schumer may not have the rules of the floor, but he seems to have the majority of votes, and that’s a huge win for Dems. It’s why we’re still in the game here. It’s a pretty shrewd strategy by Schumer. Not unlike what I would expect from Reid.

  76. 76
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Fester Addams: Specific technical terms for what happens to bring uniformed, civilian, and contracted civilian personnel onto Federal jobs.

  77. 77
    cintibud says:

    So this will save CHIP from the hostage takers for now, right? That is a major gain. Dems need to be sure the house passes any DACA legislation from the Senate before voting on the next CR OR make the Feb 8th CR for just a couple weeks

  78. 78
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks Adam I thought I was just being dense.

  79. 79
    msdc says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: And there’s that. We could come out of this with CHIP and DACA in place, and Trump, McConnell, and Ryan all rolled by Schumer.

  80. 80
    JMG says:

    There’s nothing the Democrats can do for the Dreamers on their own. About all they can accomplish is to use the legislative process to make Ryan, Trump and McConnell clearly demonstrate Republican racism or in a switch repudiate it (never happen).

  81. 81
    jacy says:

    I agree with Adam and aimai — this is the only way to take a strategic advantage. The Republicans weren’t going to cave on DACA this round. That was never going to happen. But we did sort of put them in time out and extracted a very public promise that they would do it. We all pretty much think they aren’t going to do it. So in three weeks, we do this again. But now they’ve take sCHIP off the table, so they can’t frame it as “Democrats care more about illegals than nice American Children!” That frame is gone. And as a bonus, a lot of Republican talking head and panel guests have openly expressed their racism — they’ve undercut their platitudes about compassion for the DREAMers. So the next round — and there will be another — they’ve already used up most of their tricks. We’ll be in a much stronger position the next round.

  82. 82
    danielx says:

    If they get a written pledge from McConnell and he then says in two weeks “sorry, I just can’t do it, you knew I was a liar when I signed the contract, just like Trump”…that pledge ought to be nailed to his fucking forehead. McConnell’s that is.

    Just ordered a calendar! I was faced with non-negotiable demands once the daughter unit found out Boris and Natasha are in it. Step up, folks!

  83. 83
    But her emails!!! says:

    @Dave:

    The dreamers are already at risk and there’s no guarantee that a longer government shutdown would have ended in their favor, particularly with how the press decided to cover this. Despite the fact that polls initially stated that voters would blame the Republicans, the media assholes decided to adopt the Republican framing and blame Democrats for the shut down in the headlines as to compared to how they covered previous shutdowns where it was the fault of Congress. Polling appears to have narrowed as a result, with a far narrower margin now blaming Republicans.

    The Senate version includes CHIP and Ryan’s probably going to have to bring it to the floor, because if he doesn’t, the narrative becomes Republicans are hurting our troops because the want to deny funding to sick kids. We’ll get rid of at least one of the hostages and should be in a better position to win the release of DACA once February 8th rolls around.

  84. 84
    patroclus says:

    @tobie: It’s a Senatorial procedural issue. If you put it on the Floor prior to 2/8, it has to be resolved before they can move on to the next CR. “Resolving” it, in this case, means putting it aside, thus killing it. If Yertle merely promises to move to it but doesn’t actually put it on the Floor, it won’t be killed. It’s got to be this way because of the Senate’s rules.

  85. 85
    marcopolo says:

    @Marcopolo: Anyway fuck my phone I agree with Adam’s take.

  86. 86
    🌷 Martin says:

    Reminder that the State of the Union is in 8 days, and the government may not be running when it’s supposed to happen. Shutdown says pretty much everything that needs to be said about the state of the union, though.

  87. 87
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Mnemosyne: If USAJOBs will take the application, then yes. The worst that is going to happen is that the process will be slowed down. As long as the government is open, once the search closes, his and all the other applications will be processed and scored against the qualification template. Once that is done, if his application is scored as qualified against the template, it will be sent to the hiring authority for further action. Once there, Library of Congress HR, they will produce an interview list and proceed from there. All a shutdown does is slow this process down.

  88. 88
    Amaranthine RBG says:

    The only thing any Democrat should have said for the past 3 days is “Why do Republicans want to hurt Latino children?”

    Don’t these fuckers have ANYONE working on messaging?

  89. 89
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Belafon: I sent it yesterday to the email you use to comment here. I’m assuming you use the same nym to comment at LGF? If so, I was answering the question you asked in a comment over the weekend about the Twitter TL about a woman’s grandfather who grew up in the Jewish resistance to the NAZIs during WW II. I sent you the appropriate links.

  90. 90
    marcopolo says:

    @aimai: Right. And now CHIP is funded and is also off the table as a R bargaining chip (pun intended) for the next CR.

  91. 91
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @SteveinSC:

    Dumb- Smartass.

    Fixed it for you!

  92. 92
    Dave says:

    @But her emails!!!: Exactly it’s why when I thought about it for a minute it seemed like the best course of action available to the Democrats. What we are dealing with is the inevitable damage that was baked in with GOP control of Congress and the Presidency.

  93. 93
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Adam L Silverman:
    It’s the official terminology, fair enough, but it’s still grammatically weird.

  94. 94
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @rikyrah:

  95. 95

    The D hand is weak since Rs control both chambers of the Congress, and the trump card which is the Presidency.

  96. 96
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Steeplejack: He announced “on Monday we drink seltzer”. You can take the billionaire out of Brooklyn, but not the Brooklyn out of the billionaire.

  97. 97
    patroclus says:

    81-18. Good move by Schumer, Durbin and the Dems.

  98. 98
    Cheryl Rofer says:

    I have read some commentary that many congresscritters on both sides of the aisle are getting fed up with the continuing resolutions, which are, of course, a horrendously irresponsible way to run the government. So three more weeks for them to get more fed up and join with the Democrats for the next vote. Plus DACA has something like 80% approval overall and over half with Republicans.

    Looking forward to some good messaging from Democrats these next few weeks!

  99. 99
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @b: Thanks for reattacking this. I explained this on the front page at the end of last week and in many comment threads, including this one, but it is an important point to keep reinforcing.

  100. 100
    Gravenstone says:

    @But her emails!!!:

    Ryan’s probably going to have to bring it to the floor

    Ryan is on record (for the little that is worth) promising to push through a CR in the House if the Senate passes it first. So yeah, he’s gripping his petard just so

  101. 101
    b says:

    @Litlebritdifrnt: See my comment at 59. Many federal contractors will never be paid for lost time.

  102. 102
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Amaranthine RBG:
    It’s a good thing you don’t decide the Democratic Party’s Congressional strategy. It’s not just about being holier than the Republicans.

  103. 103
    b says:

    @Adam L Silverman: And, I am going to keep saying this because I think it is important to understand all the ramifications to a shutdown.

    Many federal contractors will not be paid during a shutdown. They will never be paid for the time missed during a shutdown.

  104. 104
    marcopolo says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah, the issue will be creating conditions which force Ryan to hold a vote (if he holds the vote it passes with unanimous D and some R support and then he loses his speakership–see Boehner 2013). That might include having the Senate pass DACA legislation with 75+ votes. That might include adding juicy crap to the bill that makes Trump want to pass it (like wall funding but I don’t see how that works until Miller and Kelly are defenestrated). Or it is the need D senate votes for gov’t funding leverage/debt ceiling leverage.

  105. 105
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @tobie: They didn’t. If there is no vote to deal with comprehensive immigration reform, to include the DACA issue, by February 8th, the deal is that McConnell must allow a clean DACA bill and process before the CR runs out. That’s the leverage.

  106. 106
    Bobby Thomson says:

    @Adam L Silverman: that makes a lot more sense.

  107. 107
    joel hanes says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Thanks.

    Those of us who have been following along know that this was actually the exact state of plot advancement _before_ the current dust-up (promises repeatedly made by the R leadership have been contemptibly broken), but apparently we had to stop and roll a plot-summary on cue cards so that the slower members of the audience would be on the same page as those who were paying attention.

  108. 108
    guachi says:

    I think Schumer has done an able job with what he’s been dealt. I know Jones from Alabama voted “yes” last time and went against the Democrats but Schumer has given all the “yes” votes a reason to vote “no” next time, if necessary. That means the Alabama voters have lessened the number of Republican defectors needed to two to get a majority blocking coalition. I think this could make a big difference to the narrative and potential legislation going forward.

    Also, I get paid for one more paycheck.

  109. 109
    Amaranthine RBG says:

    @Amir Khalid:
    You think and talk like a child.

  110. 110
    West of the Rockies (been a while) says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    A sage take. Please proceed, Republicans.

  111. 111
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Amir Khalid: You have no idea.

  112. 112
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Amaranthine RBG:
    Your insult is feeble.

  113. 113
    Cheryl Rofer says:

  114. 114
    JPL says:

    The democratic members need to use every chance they have to insist that military pay should never be in doubt. Pass the bill now.

  115. 115
    Dave says:

    @Amir Khalid: And the more I think about it I really don’t want the Democrats to recapitulate the Republicans mindless obstruction for the sake of obstruction. It wouldn’t work for us because we don’t want to break things and that’s the result of maximal obstruction for it’s own sake and it’s not a path we need to start. Vigorous opposition yes being signficantly more aggressive with the media and Republicans yes.

  116. 116
    Davebo says:

    Manchin loves him some Susan Collins! Maybe because they both pretend to represent the opposite of the party they are in.

  117. 117
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: This is legislative aikido. Using the opponents strength and turning it against them.

    Or, if you prefer, legislative asymmetric warfare. All of this has been to concentrate the GOP leadership into a battlespace where their legislative majorities are actually a weakness, not a strength in order to win the fight.

  118. 118
    trollhattan says:

    @But her emails!!!:
    IIUC Trump already pulled the plug on DACA, going into effect in March. If nothing is done by then it just goes away. In other words, he can kill it regardless of what congress does.

  119. 119

    @germy: Excellent! This makes me happy because now bhakts* will has a case of sads and
    butt-hurt.

    *bhakts == devotees of the PM.

    Of course and devotees of the President will consider this MAGA.
    And rest of us will do a slow sad head shake.

  120. 120
    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes says:

    Shit got real. The Vietnam Air attendants brought us pillows and blankets, and a couple of others from our group got brought up.

  121. 121
    Davebo says:

    Honestly the best hope now is that the House votes it down.

    #FuckSchumer

  122. 122
    Matt McIrvin says:

    I have no idea what’s going on, but whatever the Democrats are doing I’m sure it must be wrong.

  123. 123
    JMG says:

    Only in Short Attention Span Theater America could postponing an issue for three weeks be seen as a “win” for somebody and a “loss” for somebody else.

  124. 124
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @b: I am aware. I have lost three full time equivalent, supervisory contract positions in the past two years because of the continuous CRs as the CORs wouldn’t onboard anyone until/unless a CR was signed for the entire remaining fiscal year.

  125. 125
    Davebo says:

    @trollhattan:

    Not without a veto. Assuming congress passes legislation approving it. Which is not likely with Schumer bing a eunuch and all.

  126. 126
    Lizzy L says:

    The Senate bills extends and funds CHIP for six years. The original House bill did not. The House has to amend their bill to match the Senate’s version. It’s possible that won’t happen. I think it will. If it doesn’t, the Democrats are actually in a stronger position. This is a strategic move from Schumer, and I think it’s pretty good.

  127. 127
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Matt McIrvin: Well played!

  128. 128
    patroclus says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Some slight quibbles with KThug – it’s 17 days (not 3 weeks), CHIP is in the bag, the Obamacare tax delays are gone and Yertle’s (very public) pledge on a DACA vote. And, perhaps more importantly, the Dems have demonstrated their leverage and their chutzpah for each and every upcoming CR.

  129. 129
    debit says:

    I haven’t even read the comments, but John, this is so fucking not helpful in any way. I am just sick of this dumping on Dems no matter what shit. Just fuck off. Seriously. Or better yet, I will. If I needed defeatist shit in my life I’d still be fucking married.

    Peace out.

  130. 130
    Cheryl Rofer says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Yes, if it works. I am also seeing commentary that the Republicans think that this agreement heightens the contradictions and will make it seem more like the Democrats are shutting down the government over DACA, which of course the Republicans will call “illegal immigration.”

    I’m not sure how it’s going to play out. I like that some legislators – don’t know how many – are getting fed up with CRs. And messaging between now and then will be critical.

    [Not at my best thinking through strategy – my piano is being tuned, which I don’t mind listening to in some ways, but it’s not great for sustained thought.]

  131. 131
    trollhattan says:

    Meanwhile, back at the White House, Ivanka in charge of staffing???

    John Kelly’s time as President Donald Trump’s chief of staff may be coming to an end. On Monday, author Gabriel Sherman reported that Ivanka Trump had been put in charge of finding a replacement for Kelly.

    “Ivanka is the most worried about it. She’s trying to figure who replaces Kelly,” someone who has spoken with the president’s daughter told Sherman.

    According to Sherman, Kelly’s days as Trump’s chief of staff “may finally have gone past the point of no return.”

    Somebody with better fashions sense, please, Ivanka.

  132. 132
    cleek says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    TERRIBLE!
    PANIC! SCREAM AND WAIL!
    DAMN YOU, STUPID PARTY !

  133. 133
    artem1s says:

    I think this is good move by the Dems. Health care for kids for the next six years and the kick the shutdown down the road. Immigration reform wasn’t possible when Obama was president. It’s not going to happen when all three branches belong to the rage monkeys. No matter how much I hate what the GOP is doing with immigration, nothing can be done about it until they are out of power.

  134. 134
    guachi says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    All of this has been to concentrate the GOP leadership into a battlespace where their legislative majorities are actually a weakness, not a strength in order to win the fight.

    This explains my feelings, just better written. The Republicans gave the Democrats an opening by using reconciliation for the tax bill thus giving Democrats leverage over the budget negotiations. This CR, combined with a few Republicans actually sounding like they mean it,(yeah, yeah. Lucy with the football. We’ll all be disappointed) means the Democrats are in a better position than they might otherwise be.

  135. 135

    Dear Democrats:

    By God, you are too fucking cheap.

  136. 136
    Miss Bianca says:

    @aimai: I still like the idea someone bruited here of the Dems pursuing a “yes, and” approach. Every time the Repubs and Trump pull their bullshit moves, the Dem noegotiating position becomes “yes, AND…not only DACA now, but repeal of that tax cut, AND full SCHIP funding, or no deal.” They’ll flip and squawk and scream, but honestly, the only type of move those assholes seem to understand or respect is out-shrecking them.

  137. 137
    trollhattan says:

    @Davebo:
    I guess that’s what I’m saying: Trump will veto a DACA bill even if congress gives him one. I don’t know how it possibly survives in the current environment.

  138. 138
    Davebo says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    And Mitch McConnell would never cum in Chuck’s mouth. After all, Flake and Collins had faith.

    There is no “deal”. Unless you’re reading something into the proposal that isn’t there.

  139. 139
    Dennis says:

    Hmmm.. Democratic President creates DACA, GOP President rescinds it, Dems force a vote which, if it fails to pass, will surely be because of GOP Nays. And yet Cole thinks Dreamers will “rightfully” hate Dems. Checks out.

  140. 140

    Well, we’ve got three weeks to make the case for DACA. We’d better make them count.

  141. 141
    tobie says:

    @patroclus: @Adam L Silverman: Thanks. I knew a game of poker was being played here but not understanding the rules of the game, I couldn’t see the strategy.

  142. 142
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: I’m seeing someone on another forum despairing that the Democrats are caving and being slammed for their intransigence at the same time. I guess when things are so rigged against you that no possible action can produce a good political outcome, there’s a certain freedom it implies.

  143. 143
    chopper says:

    this wouldn’t be a dumb move given the administration’s penchant for petulance and spite and the fact that it appears to be worked out with mcconnell, so “king dealmaker” is left to sit and bitch on twitter. Problem is that mcconnell and ryan can’t be trusted at all.

  144. 144
    guachi says:

    I’ll add that if Democrats get DACA I will be amazed at what they could do in the minority. This is something that I thought would be fought next year after big Democratic gains in the House.

    The Democrats and activists need to state loudly and often what this deal entails. “The Republicans promised DACA vote, etc. and lied about it. Now who’s not compromising?”

  145. 145
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Tracking.

    I recommend ear plugs.

  146. 146
    marcopolo says:

    @debit: Well, the initial comment from the host was totally knee-jerk (and I thought off-base) but if you have time to read through the thread there are some folks here who are actually gaming things out and making thoughtful posts–and then there is everyone else (/s). Its almost like this is a community blog or something with a diverse set of opinions!

  147. 147
    cleek says:

    @trollhattan:
    then that’s on Trump.

    and that’s how the system works.

    elections, consequences, etc..

  148. 148
    gene108 says:

    Back in the fall of 2017, Republicans wanted to pass a CR/budge that kept the government funded until March 2019.

    Democrats convinced Trump, and therefore Republicans in Congress, to have a short term budget deal until the around this time, because Democrats also wanted to get DACA and CHIP negotiated.

    Given the starting point of a budget through part of 2019, and no hope of DACA getting a vote, and maybe even CHIP funded, there’s still a shot a saving both.

  149. 149
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @guachi: It may not work, but when you don’t have the numbers, you have to leverage the terrain to shape the battlespace that you’re going to fight on.

  150. 150

    @guachi: The first two years were always going to be about triage. We’ve done better than I expected, with the tax law as the only major defeat legislatively (the executive and judicial branches weren’t so lucky). If we can get the DREAM Act passed, it will be a real accomplishment.

  151. 151
    d58826 says:

    I guess I’ll just send my contributions to the RNC. At least it goes directly to the source rather than the silly filtering thru the DNC since they do nothing anyway (snark)

  152. 152
    p.a. says:

    Sounds like a worthwhile effort, but it does give rethugs more time for the commercials/messaging that IMMIGRANTS ARE COMING TO KILL YOU DURR DURRR to take hold.

    Maybe outside drumpf’s 27+- x% core no one believes that bullshit anymore?

  153. 153
    Amir Khalid says:

    @trollhattan:
    If Trump does veto a DACA bill, they’ll have that to hang around the Republicans’ collective neck.

  154. 154
    trollhattan says:

    @cleek:
    As the saying goes, “This is central to my point.” Republicans have calculated killing it as a net plus and babyman Trump does not like it, not one bit–is it any more complicated than that?

  155. 155
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Davebo: There is a deal in that they’ve all said something and publicly agreed to it. There is no deal – I am in agreement with you – in that none of the GOP leadership interlocutors can be trusted to keep their word. That’s part of Schumer’s strategy. Get McConnell on record as to what he’ll do, then when it doesn’t happen in 3 weeks (17 days to be precise), you’ve got a strategic advantage when the next CR comes up for a vote. This isn’t a year on year CR to cover the rest of the fiscal year, this is 17 days and we’re right back where we were Friday.

  156. 156
    marcopolo says:

    I have to get on with my day. However, when I need a little boost vis a vis the 2018 political situation, I can always go to this page and see how fast contributions are pouring into D candidates & groups.

    The counter flipped over $2 billion about at the new year so anything above that is 2018 money. So far a cool $1 million a day and it is slowly ramping up.

    And with that everyone have a lovely day.

  157. 157
    Cheryl Rofer says:

  158. 158
    MCA1 says:

    @Turgidson: That’s why Schumer and Co. forcing the press to accept their framing as to what happens today is critical. Generally, I have zero faith in Democrats’ ability to pull that off, but I think they’ve got a good start.

    Frankly, I would insist on McConnell making a public pronouncement on the Senate Floor as to what the deal is before anyone votes. I want him to say “We will hold a debate and vote on a DACA resolution on or before _______, as a concession to getting the votes to move forward with today’s Continuing Resolution” with cameras rolling. Since they probably won’t get that, I’d expect Schumer, Pelosi, Durbin and every other Democrat to discuss nothing other than “the upcoming DACA debate that Mitch McConnell promised” every time there’s a microphone within fifteen yards of them for the next two weeks. And they should follow their statement about being excited for that vote with a question about why the White House has yet to lay out its position on the matter. If they can get Graham and Flake to concede publicly what today’s deal was because they also want to solve the DACA issue, that would be helpful, too.

    The American public’s and media’s memories are incredibly short, of course, but Feb. 8 is barely two and a half weeks from now. If Yertle reneges, the stage can be set for there being hell to pay.

  159. 159
    Ruckus says:

    @aimai:
    @randy khan:
    Both of you are correct.
    No, this isn’t good. But we don’t control congress. Nothing that comes out of congress is going to be what we want. Nothing. And republicans can’t even compromise with themselves, they sure aren’t going to do a lot of compromising with Dems. They might do some because they can’t compromise with each other. They are worthless fucks, in power. We can make noise, we can compromise as little as possible but republicans are going to lie about who is at fault because that’s who the are, lying sacks of shit.
    Blaming each other, calling dems weak doesn’t help, WE AREN’T IN POWER. Our only saving grace is that we can see how this ends and pressure for the least amount of damage. Except that republicans want to inflict the maximum amount of damage. And we aren’t in power. Negotiating from the weak position rarely gets good results, only possibly least worse results. This is the way it is, but it doesn’t have to be this way for ever. Work for the midterms, for turnout, for better candidates. Surly out of 300,000,000+ people we can have some good candidates. And from the sound of it we have lots. This is the time to work together, to link arms and march over those bridges and accomplish what we have been shown can be done.

  160. 160
    JMG says:

    One way it could matter in November is if the government starts deporting individual Dreamers whose stories will make really good TV. It’s easy to demonize “immigrants.” It’s not easy to demonize an individual immigrant.

  161. 161
    cleek says:

    @trollhattan:
    nope.

    but Americans supports DACA. if Trump wants killing it on his record, that’s his prerogative.

  162. 162
    Mnemosyne says:

    @d58826:

    Read the thread. The Repugs got a 17-day reprieve and we got S-CHIP for another 6 years.

  163. 163
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Matt McIrvin: First rule of dealing with an occupation/occupying force. They occupying force must be able to control everything vital and key – routes of travel and shipping, communication, etc. This is very, very difficult. And it provides the insurgent with room to maneuver if the insurgent is willing to accept some strategic risk. The key for the insurgent is to make the occupier defend everything. Demonstrate control everywhere. Try to be everywhere. This is almost impossible, if not impossible. The occupier understands success as winning each engagement, battle, successfully dealing with each incident. The effective insurgent must, to use the Taoist aphorism, invest in loss. Forget about battles and engagements. Winning or losing them doesn’t matter. What matters is exhausting the occupier, demonstrating that their control isn’t total, and that it can’t be effective. That is what allows for the war to be won. Very, very different set of strategic calculus than a regular type of war where it is all about territory seized and numbers of enemy soldiers killed.

  164. 164
    Miss Bianca says:

    @Davebo: You can shut up any old time now. Stop trying to tell us that your pants-pissing is actually Liquid Gold and we should all be paying attention to it.

  165. 165
    Betty Cracker says:

    So basically, the US Senate has agreed to let known liars Trump, McConnell and Ryan prove themselves liars again in a few weeks. Oh well. If CHIP gets long-term funding in this CR, at least Republicans will be forced to find another racist framing for the next shutdown instead of “DACA aliens vs. real American children.” My guess is they’ll go with “the troops.”

  166. 166
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @p.a.: Killer three-year-olds!

    The thing about DACA is that, yes, Republicans can frame it as pro-illegal-immigration, but the moment the details are mentioned in even the crudest manner the “illegal immigrants” in question turn out to be sympathetic figures with net popular support. The idea that toddlers are walking time bombs due to their ineluctable foreignness only appeals to the most racist core. Maybe the majority doesn’t think the government should be shut down for DACA’s sake, but… I guess it’s not going to be.

  167. 167
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @guachi: Can’t be fought next year, even with the Federal court ruling holding the rollback of the EO. The clock is ticking. It has to be legislatively resolved as soon as possible. And as comprehensively as possible.

  168. 168
    Calouste says:

    @Cheryl Rofer: Ah, Nate Silver. The man who thought that after the shitgibbon had been leading the BRP primaries for 4 months he still wasn’t the one most likely to win.

  169. 169

    It will be over when they pass a CR that funds the government for a year. Until that happens, we’re still in this.

  170. 170

    I keep remembering how the Democrats caved and caved and caved. It was always “next time” and next time never came. Meantime, the fascists will have three weeks to whip up anti-immigrant sentiment. Maybe the Dems can whip up some pro-DREAMer sentiment in that time.

    I don’t have a good feeling about this.

  171. 171
    BillCinSD says:

    @cleek:

    even the press would be able to understand that.

    Yeah, I wouldn’t bet that they act on that sort of understanding

  172. 172
    Cheryl Rofer says:

    Some wise words in this thread. Read the whole thing.

  173. 173
    charon says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    this is 17 days and we’re right back where we were Friday.

    Except Paul Ryan etc. can not play Sophie’s choice with CHIP.

  174. 174
    Ridnik Chrome says:

    @Adam L Silverman: Good take. Having read it, I feel a lot better about this.

  175. 175
    Furloughed Fed says:

    Furloughs always put me through a bit too much of this: http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WpE_xMRiCLE

  176. 176
    MCA1 says:

    @chopper: I think Schumer’s trolling of Dolt45 is perfect here. He’s baiting him into getting back into the discussion, where he does one or more of: making an ass of himself, undercutting the GOP brand, reneging on promises the Congressional leaders of his party make, proving to anyone who’s watching that he’s a petulant, unprepared moron, unwittingly shining a light on his own bigotry and the sway his nativist enablers Miller and Kelly have over him. All of those things help Dems short and long term.

    Or, if Drumpf stays on the sidelines, Schumer and Dems can continue to mock his ineffectiveness, daring him to jump back in and speak his racist mind as the lesser of two evils compared to being put in the corner to sulk.

    If we get an actual legislative process on Dreamers and it ends with anything other than totally rightwing policy resolution that is inexplicably not filibustered by Democrats, Democrats probably win there, too. Even if we end up with rightwing policy, it helps kill off more blue state Republicans in the House.

  177. 177
    West of the Rockies (been a while) says:

    @debit:

    You should read the comments.

  178. 178
    Steeplejack says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Schumer is a low-end millionaire, at best.

  179. 179
    KithKanan says:

    @patroclus: Is there a list of who’s in that 18? I see the CA senators both voted ‘no’. Smart.

    Even if the deal is the best that could be hoped for and strategically smart, I’m probably not the only CA primary voter with a zero-tolerance “cash up front or the GOP can go fuck themselves” position.

  180. 180
    Adria McDowell says:

    @trollhattan: Ivanker is dumb as a stump, so I’m just hoping for someone somewhat intelligent.

    Watch her pull a Cheney and name herself or her husband. Weren’t they debating in Fire and Fury who would be Presidunce first?

  181. 181
    JPL says:

    @Betty Cracker: That’s why I want the democratic members to ask for a up or down vote to pay the troops during a shut down. If they said it everyday, it might gain traction.
    I also thought dreamers were allowed to join the military. Am I wrong?

  182. 182
    MaryL says:

    The thing about negotiating is that it’s generally considered good strategy to ask for more than you expect then eventually give in when you get what you originally hoped for. The problem with this strategy in the political realm is that people think you’ve caved if you don’t get every single thing that you asked for. I think Dems have played their hand about as well as they possibly could, and they’ve given themselves room for more progress. That said, we’ll have to see how the next few weeks play out.

  183. 183
    d58826 says:

    @Adam L Silverman: OK but call me cynical. I would not trust Yrtle to make p*** run down his leg.
    I realize this is an oversimplification given the Senate rules but:
    1. today – reopen the government
    2. Tuesday – vote on a clean DACA
    3. Wed. – vote on a clean SCHIP extension

    Why all of these Machiavellian target dates and promises. If Yrtle and the GOP wanted this legislation to pass they would have scheduled votes months ago.

  184. 184
    Tim C. says:

    @JMG: Already happening.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/wor.....-crackdown

    And yes, screw the American media for being shown up by the BBC, but this is the kind of thing we have to push.

  185. 185
    JMG says:

    Seventeen days gives Trump enough time to take at least 51 different positions on this issue. He can’t stop shooting his mouth off and he can’t stop agreeing with the last thing he saw on TV. I wish he’d live tweet the Super Bowl. The swings of sentiment would be hilarious.

  186. 186
    Peale says:

    @charon: Yep. I think in 17 days it will be a choice between a very harsh DACA bill which Democrats will be loathe to vote for because it will still involve 100,000s deportations or a softer DACA extention with agreement to start funding the wall. I’d take that second one, please. If we can get out of this without touching family sponsorship, losing the immigration lottery, DACA kids safe (or even an expansion so that the 15 years olds and under are sae) and a few 1000 yards of really expensive wall for Trump to crow about it, I think we’ll have done better than expected. Protecting people who are already in the country and the needs of immigrant families has to take precedence.

  187. 187
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @charon: Correct.

  188. 188
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Furloughed Fed: That is the problem with negotiating with the President. There is never an actual deal. This has become increasingly clear over the past several weeks. Not that it was particularly obscured before that.

  189. 189
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @Steeplejack: I understand, based on presidential testimony, that one’s net worth is solely determined by how one feels at any given moment.

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    But her emails!!! says:

    @d58826:

    sCHIP extension for 6 years is already in the CR.

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    Adam L Silverman says:

    @JPL: There are, around, a 1,000 dreamers serving in the US military at this time.

  192. 192
    Adam L Silverman says:

    @d58826: SCHIP is now off the table. It was included, by Schumer’s prodding, in the bill the Senate just voted for. It will be fully funded for 6 years. So unless Ryan strips it out of the House bill, which would require either a second Senate vote or a conference committee, which would just slow stuff down further and be all on the GOP, that hostage is now freed and can’t be leveraged by the GOP.

  193. 193
    Chyron HR says:

    @Raven Onthill:

    Meantime, the fascists will have three weeks to whip up anti-immigrant sentiment.

    Dammit! If only we had stood our ground on the shutdown the Republicans would have abandoned their nazi ideology and embraced illegal immigrants instead!

  194. 194
    Davebo says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    You had McConnell on record agreeing before, to HIS OWN FREAKING CAUCUS and he blew it off.

    Did you notice the backlash? Did you see Flake and Collins on the sunday morning talking heads screaming about it?

    That would be a no.

  195. 195
    But her emails!!! says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Adam, one of the issues is that our insurgency has it’s own insurgents who are busy picking on our vulnerabilities and weakness while we fight. So while today should be viewed as a limited tactical victory and strategic success, there’s a massive wave of people calling out our leaderships, Senators and Democrats as cowards and making a defeat out of a victory.

  196. 196
    Downpuppy says:

    There’s a lot of acting needed among Democrats to get this thing finished. Enough lefties need to scream Sellout! to let Twitler think it’s a victory.

    Enough senators had to vote yes to get the thing done. On the whole, probably a decent deal.

  197. 197
    Eolirin says:

    If the republicans are truly unwilling to do anything to prevent the mass deportation of dreamers, there’s literally nothing the dems can do about it. The republicans aren’t interested in the government being functional, don’t particularly care about the damage a shutdown causes, and much of their electoral weaknesses going into the midterms are already baked in. The leadership has very little to lose if it comes to that, and a prolonged shutdown is just going to turn public opinion against the dreamers. We are always going to have to cave before them, and they know it. The only thing we have going for us is that some of the republican legislators are clearly not comfortable with how their party is behaving. We need them applying internal pressure if we’re going to get anything at all.

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    bemused says:

    @Tim C.:

    So heartbreaking and cruel. A lot of high school kids who have lost friends and will be losing friends aren’t going to forget.

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    Davebo says:

    Read the bill! Notice the wording about DACA resolution in the bill.

    Oops. Never mind. Chuck wouldn’t let us down right?

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    Tim C. says:

    @bemused: There’s this scene in “Band of Brothers” where near the end of the series, an American soldier loses his temper at a column of surrendered and marching Germans. I forget all the details, but it’s just an exausted rant along the lines of “WHAT DID YOU THINK WOULD HAPPEN?” I know the analogy isn’t perfect for a number of reasons, but essentially, every rural/agricultural part of the country that depends on undocumented labor for it’s economic survival…. “WHAT DID YOU THINK WOULD HAPPEN??!?!?!?”

  202. 202
    oldgold says:

    I wonder how many commenting here have ever been involved in high stakes negotiations?

  203. 203
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Keep pushing the party that is the most open to your influence and keep fighting the other side like hell. Seriously, this is how this kind of a fight works. Just some advice from a history buff.

    Sadly, there are way too many people on our side who don’t understand the difference between these two strategies and think even allies should be fought with knives out.

  204. 204
    No Drought No More says:

    Schumer must be retired for his party’s own good.

    In A Nutshell: Bush/Cheney successfully plotted the 2003 War in Iraq, which Schumer supported. A Supreme Court seat was also stolen out from beneath his nose, upsetting a hitherto noble tradition in counterrevolutionary style, and it was done.

    And yet it was not a campaign issue in 2016, because Schumer and the party leadership rolled over and took it, their lame counter-attacks against the outrage being tantamount to their acquiescence.

    Moreover, and precisely like Schumer’s great betrayal in supporting the 2003 War, that disgraceful acquiescence in establishing McConnell’s insurrection as a new norm remains unspoken among democrats, a taboo subject conveniently free from all criticism. The stolen seat has therefore been widely accepted as a simple matter of business as usual, conducted by honorable patriots across the congressional aisle. It was yet another Big Lie, one unacknowledged by Schumer as being the mortal assault upon the Judiciary. There are other examples that might be cited as well, of Schumer’s acceptance of republican deceits that border on collaboration. The War and The Stolen Seat are but two of the more prominent.

    Neither Schumer’s support for the criminal War in Iraq, or the stolen Supreme Court seat, or every other un-American violation of the historic norms of governance effected by the GOP are not- in any way, shape, or form- at all acceptable. The democratic rank deserve better. It’s a shame, but also a fact, that democrats must first clean their own house before they can get this country back on its feet. Over the long past few decades, the leadership of the democratic party has done more harm than good by those they represent. Democrats should now thank them for their good works, which are indisputable, and show them the door It’s past time to break out the brooms and the gold watches..

  205. 205
    Ruckus says:

    People, we didn’t lose the coin toss on Nov 8, 2016, we lost the superbowl. Out of two political parties, we are number two. We can pick ourselves up and make the best of it or we can sit in the corner and pout. They have the lying media, we have the numbers. Let’s not shoot each other because we are pissed at them. It’s the next season, we have games to play and win. We won’t win them all but if we build our strengths and play on their weaknesses we can win again. Strength in politics is in numbers, not in being right or wrong. Being right should count but that is a different issue. republicans can count, usually dollars but they can count. At least to 536. And right now there are more of them than us in power. But we have the advantage in total numbers in the population. @Adam L Silverman: has this spot on, you don’t have to win each battle, you have to make your opponent lose the war because you can’t overpower them. Be smarter (that’s not all that difficult here), play the long game, take advantage where and when you can, small battles add up, force the other side to defend, don’t play their game, play smarter, you can’t inflict pointed heavy losses, you have to hit and run constantly. You won’t win all the battles, you will suffer losses but you will most likely win the war.

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    Cheryl Rofer says:

  207. 207
    d58826 says:

    sigh I have enough trouble beating my 7 year old niece at tic-tac-toe w/o trying to figure out the 3 dimensional chess of the US Congress

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    Barbara says:

    @d58826: Try to imagine this scenario: W and H divorce and W gets primary physical custody of children and H gets some custody and pays support. H decides to stop paying support. We sues for back payment and to enjoin further backsliding. H counter sues for primary physical custody. This is called creating a problem and then trying to maximize your leverage to make the other side back down. Now, in a sane world, state law would provide that a non-custodian parent can’t sue for custody as part of a countersuit for payment of support. But in the real world W caves on the back payment and maybe settles for future payments. W is highly risk averse around the issue of losing custody. H isn’t giving up anything he really cares about or that makes him worse off.

    Does McConnell really care about DACA? No, not inherently. He cares about whether whatever solution is worked out on DACA won’t make Republicans look bad. This is why the real culprit here truly is Trump and those pandering to his (literally) basest instincts on immigration because the specific tactic they apparently keep using to get Trump change his mind is that he is selling out his base. So Trump’s messaging around DACA is very important to McConnell. And so long as Trump keeps pandering to whoever is in the room with him, McConnell won’t do anything. Who cares more about CHIP? Who cares more about keeping the government open? How do you balance those three priority items in a way that you don’t lose on any of them? Schumer has done as well as anyone could have been expected to.

  209. 209
    Mnemosyne says:

    @KithKanan:

    Even if the deal is the best that could be hoped for and strategically smart, I’m probably not the only CA primary voter with a zero-tolerance “cash up front or the GOP can go fuck themselves” position.

    I’m pretty sure Schumer has calculated to the inch who can be spared to vote “yes” and who needs to stay “no.”

  210. 210
    bemused says:

    @Tim C.:

    I know! I really blows my mind that Republican voters and particularly Trump voters, now saying this ain’t just, had no idea horrors like this would be possible. The GOP is their party and they never thought stuff like this would happen?! They really seem to have a problem with connecting dots or thinking what could possibly go wrong.

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  212. 212
    WaterGirl says:

    @WaterGirl: My initial response was “Well, fuck.” I really appreciate all of you who were able to see a bigger picture than I was. Thank you.

  213. 213
    Mnemosyne says:

    @No Drought No More:

    It’s a shame, but also a fact, that democrats must first clean their own house before they can get this country back on its feet.

    Nope. Nope nope nope nope. This is exactly the “thinking” by the left that got us into this goddamned Trump mess in the first place. Replacing all of the Democrats who are experienced at pulling the levers of Congress with newbies who have no idea how this shit works would be a fucking disaster.

  214. 214
    Ruckus says:

    @Cheryl Rofer:
    Difficult for people to grasp what history has shown us time and time again when they haven’t studied it at all, or when they refuse to see things from more than one perspective. Thing is we don’t have to go very far back in time to see how it works, we have examples within the time frame of people alive today.
    @No Drought No More:
    You go to war with the force you have not the one you’d like to build while your adversary fucks you over some more. Schumer is doing great right now. That is far better than taking republican shit for years while you wait to find the perfect person to fight a battle that waiting and looking lost for you. Whatever hard on you have for him, get over it. The only question is, what is he doing now, not what do I think he’s done wrong in the past. He is the senate minority leader, like it or not. You want to get anything done you have to look forward not back. Only looking back is a conservative framing, it’s what they do, tear down, go backwards to something that didn’t work whenever. The only way for progress is to know what was and move forward. Schumer is doing that. You are not.
    This is what winning a battle from a position of weakness looks like. This is 12 moves from checkmate, playing with an opponent who understands the game.

  215. 215
    WaterGirl says:

    @Miss Bianca: Am I right in thinking the DaveBo guy is the one that someone reported as talking about killing and eating cats on a thread months ago, or some equally awful thing?

  216. 216
    Ruckus says:

    @bemused:
    Easy to understand how they do that. Try walking around all day with your head up your ass. You’d have a shitty outlook on life as well as having a difficult time seeing what’s going on around you. Also depending on faux news to know anything, which is just like having one’s head up their ass.

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    efgoldman says:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    No new Federal hires will be inprocessed or onboarded

    Just using those two verbs proves you’re perfect for government work.

  218. 218
    Ruckus says:

    @WaterGirl:
    It is an oh fuck moment. That’s because you understand having a working, sane government. We don’t have that. We have parts of it. And the solution is not to burn down everything and start over. You scoop up the dog shit, you feed the dog, it shits again. It’s a never ending cycle, it’s what you do. (Understanding that the republicans are the dog shit of course)

  219. 219
    efgoldman says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    When Mitch does nothing or something in obvious bad faith in a couple weeks, they can do it again, from a better position, and with CHIP funding already passed.

    That assumes Granny Starver lets it come to the floor despite the kkkrazy kkkaukkkus. I certainly wouldn’t wager anything important on that.

  220. 220
    efgoldman says:

    @b:

    Many federal contractors will not be paid during a shutdown.

    I think many people see “federal contractors” and think “overpaid consultants having three martini lunch on the taxpayers’ dime.”
    In fact all kinds of low-paid people who do scut work are “contractors” rather than W2 employees for the same reason private industry uses them: to shave bux off personnel costs.

  221. 221
    J R in WV says:

    @No Drought No More:

    Dude:

    How long have you been a Republican? Really! Or a BernieBro, whichever you are. I’m seeing win-win from Schumer and his troops, and you’re crying? CHIP is solid now. The Rs have 17 days to mess with us, and that ain’t long.

    They have promised to pass DACA over and over. I won’t be surprised if they break the promise, but I will be surprised if they don’t get hell to pay for doing it!

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