Mr. Anderson is correct to disagree with me. I was hasty and ill-informed and let my inner pessimist rule:
Roughly 60 hours after the federal government first shut down, a bipartisan group of negotiators in the Senate reached a breakthrough to reopen the government by uniting Republican and Democratic leaders in an agreement on immigration and spending.
The Senate headed toward overwhelming passage of a short-term spending bill later in the day Monday after voting to end debate by a vote of 81-18. The House was then expected to pass the measure and send it to President Trump for his signature, laying the groundwork for the government to reopen by Monday evening.
The spending bill would fund the government through Feb. 8 and reauthorize the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for six years.
This is actually a good deal- I had no idea it was getting CHIP off the table. I thought it was just kicking the can down the road. The mental and financial relief this will bring to millions of parents is such a good thing, and the actually care for kids is even better. I need to be more optimistic, and good work Dems.
Just the Facts
Fair enough. But “good work, Dems” at FUNDING BASIC HEALTH CARE FOR MILLIONS OF CHILDREN shows how low the GOP has put the bar on basic governance.
schrodingers_cat
Admitting a mistake, that too publicly shows maturity and wisdom. I respect that.
Thoroughly Pizzled
I’mma call my reps. to thank them for saving CHIP. Then make it clear that DACA must also be protected.
agorabum
One hostage is safe. This is great.
And now no Sophie’s Choice next go around, where Republicans tell us we have to kill one group of children to save another.
KithKanan
This was probably the right move, but I’m still angry about it and glad my senators voted against.
Humdog
Admittting you made a mistake PROVES you never were really a Republican. Thanks, John, for this and the calendar and the blog.
Patricia Kayden
@KithKanan: It does nothing for Dreamers.
But her emails!!!
I’d like to point out that a lot of people are griping that CHIP was also included in a previous offer. This is actually different as CHIP was apparently included without the ACA undermining poison pills the Republicans previously offered.
Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)
thank god
MisterForkbeard
You know, one of the reasons I like this blog is that John will totally admit he’s wrong when he fucks up.
I agree – this is a good deal for Dems. Get’s CHIP off the table, and has a very good chance of getting the Dreamer’s here legally. And it looks like the deal may have rolled Republicans in other ways, including removing some bad/poison-pill language from the bill. This (and the DACA vote promise) gets Democrats most of what they want, and removes most of the hostage taking Republicans could engage in.
T S
@Patricia Kayden: We’ll see in 3 weeks. If the messaging works, the next shutdown can be placed squarely on the shoulders of Mitch for going back on his word on a clean vote. We’ll be right back where we were but with only one hostage to negotiate over. Optically, and for the real good of DACA, this is the best move. It might not work, but then staying the course on a shutdown wasn’t getting us anywhere was it? I think the messaging that this was the Democrats fault was starting to work.
Additionally, I think Schumer offering Trump the border wall funding was a smart move too. He QUITE CORRECTLY knew that no one with any real power in the administration was going to let that shit happen. It was a trap.
KithKanan
@Patricia Kayden: I personally want to force the GOP to trash the legislative filibuster. I’ve also always wanted the Dems to rip it up every time they’ve been in power, but I don’t think they’ll ever have the guts.
SFAW
You may have been worng, but we still love you, John.
Well, like you
a lotWell, we’re OK with you.
Most days.
Plus, what schrodingers_cat (and Humdog) said
Major Major Major Major
This also means that Repubs will have to find a talking point other than “Dems are holding children’s healthcare hostage for illegal immigrants!”
catclub
Getting the CHIP renewal done means there is one less hostage next time – and so far no dead ones, yet.
Hurricane relief funds and DACA are the main items now remaining.
I think actually getting DACA will remain hard, as long as Trump is listening to Miller and Kelly.
karen marie
Per the CBO: “Extending funding for CHIP for 10 years yields net savings to the federal government because the federal costs of the alternatives to providing coverage through CHIP (primarily Medicaid, subsidized coverage in the marketplaces, and employment-based insurance) are larger than the costs of providing coverage through CHIP during that period.”
When a Republican tells you they want to keep costs to taxpayers down, ask them why they refused to extend CHIP for ten years.
Suzanne
The Very Smart People seem rather divided on this. I will reserve judgment until we find out what happens.
But trusting Mitch McConnell never strikes me as a wise move.
chris
Well done, John Cole.
People were also worried about community health centres. Are they funded too?
SFAW
@catclub:
I think it will be hard because Traitor Turtle will “sweet-talk” Flake, Graham, and the rest of the wavering Rethugs to vote against it. Might not be as obvious as the Corker Bribe, but on the other hand the Rethugs in question have not generally needed much bribery to fold like the proverbial cheap suit. Although I guess I should be a little more optimistic, because it seems to me that Graham does not like Miller much.
MisterForkbeard
@catclub: I think Trump vetoing a standalone DACA (or pushing Republicans to vote against it) would be a fatally stupid move for the midterms.
Especially after promising that he wants to fix it, torpedoing it publicly would be bad. There wouldn’t be anyone who could defend him on it at all without acknowledging that he wanted to deport them all from the beginning and lied about it. I mean, WE know that, but at this point the press is still “both sidesing” it.
catclub
@Suzanne:
How can you say that? It keeps Susan Collins in office.
jl
I hope we can all agree that the deal is sort of OK, but also be pessimistic and cranky. If I understand it correctly, seems to me that with DACA, both sides agreed to play groundhog day if McConnell doesn’t keep his word. We;ll be right back at same issues in three weeks, except CHIP is taken care of.
Democrats need to use the time to raise public awareness of the DACA issues, and point out cynical games GOP has been playing.
bystander
Thanks, John. The agreement may not yield a 100% positive DACA result but those with the most at stake see who is putting themselves on the line for them.
Patricia Kayden
@T S: Schumer offered funding for Trump’s border wall? Arghhhhh!!!
Sigh.
SFAW
@Suzanne:
I guess it depends on what you’re trusting Traitor Turtle to do. For example, I trust him to try to fuck over non-wealthy America whenever he can, just like ZEGS.
catclub
@SFAW: Even more likely is that Ryan never gives t a vote in the House. He has made no promises on it, so even if McConnell keeps his word, Ryan blocks it and Trump never has to veto – or even make up his mind.
Thoroughly Pizzled
@Major Major Major Major: They always find one. It’s easy when stupidity and dishonesty are assets and not liabilities.
Patricia Kayden
@KithKanan: If Dems take the Senate, they can do that next January. Not sure if that is a good thing to do given that Republicans may control the Senate again in the near future.
catclub
@Patricia Kayden:
I think there is a difference between an AUTHORIZATION and an APPROPRIATION, and it matters to the experts. I bet we do not know which Schumer offered.
SFAW
@catclub:
No, the same idiots who voted for LePage keep her in office. But that may change in two years.
MaryL
John’s willingness to admit that he was wrong and change his stance in the face of new information is one of my favorite things about this place.
MisterForkbeard
@jl: “Back where we are except without CHIP” is a huge improvement.
Especially because Dems (and the press) will have an easy, ready-made narrative if things break down: Republicans backed out on the deal and are causing a shutdown, when all they needed to do was allow a clean DACA bill… something they say they want.
@Patricia Kayden: Correct – in last Friday’s last-minute deal, Schumer offered $1.9B, which would be enough money to “start” Trump’s fake wall but not enough to really do anything with it. It was the initial ask from the Republicans on wall funding.
Emma
Can we please stop talking about messaging as if it were the end all and by all? The racists will never be with us, the press will always be preset for Republicans, and Trump will always be a lying, cheating fornicator of swine. These things are outside anyone’s control, and hoping against hope that these people have a road to Damascus epiphany is useless. We have to concentrate on what is achievable.
SFAW
@catclub:
I hope you’re wrong. I had forgotten about that other traitor.
Eolirin
@Patricia Kayden: Yes, in exchange for protecting 800,000 dreamers from deportation. Even if that money was going to get spent on an actual wall, that’s the right move to make. Defending actual human lives is much more important than stopping a lunatic from wasting money on an idiotic and unworkable symbolic gesture.
MisterForkbeard
@catclub: Yep. But again, we can’t force Ryan to vote on this, not really. This is as good as we can get, and it puts failure squarely on Republicans if it happens.
KithKanan
@Patricia Kayden: That’s always the excuse, and the fear. There will never be a good time to get rid of it.
T S
@Suzanne: I think they are relying on Mitch to be a liar, honestly. More blame on the GOP next go around.
MisterForkbeard
@Patricia Kayden: I’d be really careful about this, especially since we’re not sure if the Dems will win the presidency in 2020. If we don’t, then all it lets us do is send more bills to Trump for him to veto, and I’m not sure about the efficacy of that. Then it gives away our minority powers.
T S
@Emma: We achieved CHIP funding. That was achievable. Next month, we’ll focus on DACA. We’ll see if that’s achievable.
danielx
@Suzanne:
Agreed. Get it in writing and then nail it to his forehead when he says, “well, conditions have changed, sorry, just can’t do it”.
Don’t know if this has made the rounds here yet or not.
Kalamazoo doctor jailed after ICE arrest
No comment from ICE, naturally. The guy’s wife thought it was a prank call when he called to tell her.
ETA: somehow the optics of “deporting a Polish doctor” seem not to have occurred to the great mind at ICE.
Frankensteinbeck
@Suzanne:
No one is trusting Mitch McConnell. This deal fucks him over by making him come back to the table with one less hostage if he doesn’t deliver. If this bill passes and is signed, McConnell loses. Full stop. He gets a little over two weeks and loses one of his two bargaining chips.
KithKanan
@Eolirin: If the wall is built, it needs to be obliterated to the point there isn’t even a microscopic sign that it ever existed. I don’t care if it costs a trillion dollars.
MomSense
The smart thing is it takes the horrifically cynical talking point away from Republicans that Dems don’t care about kids. And they still need Dems to fund the government last February so we can make funding conditional on DACA.
Once the White House switchboard opens let’s light up those lines with angry calls about Miller, Kelly, and Trump abandoning Dreamers.
There are still too many motherfucking Nazis in the morherfucking White House.
West of the Cascades
@SFAW: We like your pets, at least.
Emma
@T S: Exactly. One step at a time is all we got at the moment. Big pushes on voting access to all and counteracting redistricting crap are essential to change the equation.
Thoroughly Pizzled
@T S: The tendency to take everything the Dems say at face value is extremely annoying. Obama showed that he was completely capable of bipartisan rhetoric while signing bills with no Republican votes. I think everyone knows that Mitch will renege.
T S
@Patricia Kayden: He let Trump set the number and said “sure,” knowing it was symbolic gesture. Look, he got CHIP funded. We weren’t even there last week. We’ll see what happens next month.
I really don’t get this whole purity politics. Should we rather end up with nothing than try to play the game to win rather than to feel self righteous? I don’t get it.
MaryL
@SFAW: I think this is an issue that Flake may not back down on. I know people claim that his criticism of Trump rings hollow because he votes with the Republican majority most of the time, but unlike Graham and Collins, he’s never really claimed to favor moderation on economic issues. He voted for ACA repeal and for the tax bill because he is a free-market conservative. In the case of DACA, he has no real incentive to stick with McConnell and Trump.
Joyce H
I think I’m in favor of this too. I think of it as the Dems giving the Reps a bloody nose to show they mean business, before they have to bring out the heavier weapons. “Okay, let’s shut the government down. Let’s see how that works out for you and who gets blamed for it.” In the following three weeks, the Reps will go about their business now KNOWING that the Dems are willing to go to shutdown over the DACA issue and that the GOP got blamed for the last shutdown. If they don’t want to fix DACA, now they have to come right out and admit that they don’t want to, rather than their current dodge of ‘oh, we’d love to do this’, but somehow it never gets done.
And let’s face it, shutdowns are painful for people. Dems care about that, even if Reps don’t. And I’d imagine that if this shutdown went on, it would be more painful than the average shutdown, because this administration did precisely NOTHING to prepare for it and how no idea in the world how to go about it. Always before, if a shutdown seemed likely, the executive branch put out plans and instructions on what to do in the event of a shutdown, so it could be managed in an orderly fashion and the disruption could be minimized as much as possible. This time, nobody had a clue who was staying home, who was coming to work, what happened with various projects – nothing.This time, you have the OMB Director, on the eve of the shutdown, saying “In fact, I found out for the first time last night that the person who technically shuts the government down is me, which is kind of cool.”
Kind of cool.
Emma
@KithKanan: The wall can’t be built. Literally. It went from a modern version of the Great Wall of China to “there are obviously places where it is impossible to do.” The wall is the way Trump keeps his knuckle draggers focused.
Patricia Kayden
@MisterForkbeard: I don’t believe it’s a good idea to get rid of the Senate legislative filibuster. If that happens, the Senate turns into another House where a simple majority carries the day.
Tim C.
@KithKanan: The Legislative filibuster is, in my opinion, the Fort Sumpter of the current inter-party conflict in American politics. Even after South Carolina succeeded, even after the slaver scum surrounded it with cannons, even as they cut off supplies, Lincoln knew the political value of having them fire the first shots. In the short run, losing the filibuster would be bad, but it would advantage us more in the long run.
Eolirin
@KithKanan: So, end result: Dems get in power after the republicans break everything, fix a bunch of stuff, we get a new set of crazies after 8 years, like we pretty much always do, and they tear the entire thing to the ground, rinse repeat? We’d fall apart even faster.
Spanky
@MisterForkbeard: J-Rub over at the WaPo has a “both sides” I can agree with:
Major Major Major Major
@Thoroughly Pizzled: I don’t care if they always find a talking point–everybody always finds a talking point. This takes away a convincing talking point. It was working.
MisterForkbeard
@Spanky: I completely agree, but it’s been obvious for a long time that Trump was really, really bad at “dealmaking” – he’s ‘good’ at coercion and threats and when those fail he just walks away. He’s not in a position to do this in government and not really in a position to do this internationally either.
The best he gets is pressuring people under his thumb (like the head of South Korea) to say he’s awesome and that his abject craziness is actually some sort of deep plan that’s paying off.
trollhattan
@Spanky:
Did I hear Graham actually call out Miller this weekend for his rabid anti-everything immigration stance? Bannon may be gone but his gift of installing Miller lives on. This guy….
JMG
Let’s posit a few facts. 1. Republicans have no interest in helping the Dreamers at all. Either want mass deportation or would tolerate it out of fear of group one. 2. It’s pretty apparent Schumer doesn’t have 41 votes in his caucus for a prolonged shutdown as of this moment.
Given those facts, all he can do is play for time in the not unreasonable expectation that the Republicans will overplay their hand in such a way as to either stiffen the spines in the Democratic caucus or fully expose the racism at the core of the Republican’s immigration stance in such a way that even the media can’t avoid it. A Super Shithole moment if you will.
Dmbeaster
The deal gives up basically nothing and gets CHIP done.
In three weeks, we will be exactly where we were on Friday, except CHIP is done. A partial solution that slightly improves things is almost always good.
The only exceptions are: 1) if letting more time pass without solutions to the unresolved problems makes the situation much worse; or 2) the politics of a partial solution undermine the ability to negotiate the remaing issues. I do not see how either applies here. And there is a lot of value to demonstrating you can make deals, even if only a small blip forward.
Eolirin
@Major Major Major Major: My fear in all of this is there not being enough Americans who care enough about Dreamers that they’ll ever side with them over a lengthy government shutdown, convincing talking point or no. That at the end of the day the Republicans will always be able to outlast us in that fight. We don’t have any other leverage, and the elections where we can exact a price on this issue come far too late to stop the deportations.
cleek
@Patricia Kayden:
there is already 700 miles of wall-like-material along the border. Trump has already admitted he can’t build an actual wall along the border.
more funding probably just means more/better fence. no big deal.
Rand Careaga
@schrodingers_cat:
For as long as I have been following it, this blog has implicitly constituted an admission of past mistakes and a demonstration of maturity.
No Drought No More
My understanding is that Dreamers will remain living in a state of terror in America, courtesy of this great deal. If that is so, that fact should make every democrat- including Shumer- profoundly ashamed…
Roger Moore
@KithKanan:
I think you might be surprised. If they win both houses and the presidency in 2020 but don’t have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, they will have a very strong temptation to rip it up so they can achieve anything.
Frankensteinbeck
From where I stand, this deal looks like it absolutely rolls McConnell. He gives up his best hostage, one he’s been harping on relentlessly, and gets… three weeks of reprieve, but no actual concessions? This fucks him over so badly, I wonder if he’s expecting Ryan or Trump to nix it and is just hoping to shift the blame.
bemused
@danielx:
This administration’s escalation of deporting immigrants is another zero tolerance cruel fiasco. We’ve all seen the abuses that happen when zero tolerance policies are applied to minimum mandatory sentencing, behavior in schools, sexual assault claims, etc. Republicans really like zero tolerance policies but they never seem to connect the dots and think ahead to what could possibly go wrong until it negatively affects their own communities, their own families or people they know such as their own doctors and so on.
opiejeanne
@But her emails!!!: Did they fund the necessary facilities for CHIP that they left off earlier? I understood that the earlier offer didn’t fund clinics etc.
cain
@danielx:
“I’m altering the deal, pray that I don’t alter it any further” – Vader
“This deal is getting worse all the time! ” – Lando
oldgold
The political contour of the ground the Dems were operating from was much less than optimal. Better to make a tactical withdrawal in an orderly manner and live to fight another day on better ground. In addition, no sense in engaging in a full bloody battle, that might endanger the huge war changing victory that appears to lie ahead in November.
In 3 weeks, if GOP underperforms on this deal, the political contour of the ground will be better.
Gelfling 545
@MomSense: Seems to me that pushing the notion that Kelly and Miller “control” Trump might speed them on their way out. He really hated the whole “President Bannon” thing.
MisterForkbeard
@No Drought No More: “Democrats haven’t immediately fixed everything and are therefore awful. Vote Jill Stein!”
Don’t you ever get tired of this shit? This vote gets CHIP and substantially improves the chances of saving Dreamers from Republicans. It also makes it significantly harder for Republicans to take hostages in the future. Blow it out your ass.
T S
@cain: Invoking SW in an online political discussion should have its own law, like Godwin’s. edit: Except, invoking SW is even worse, since it basically never has any real relevance to anything real, ever, unlike invoking real life examples.
different-church-lady
Wait, you formed an opinion in haste? That is so unlike you.
SFAW
@MaryL:
I hope you’re right. I don’t trust Flake as far as I can throw the FFinC.
MisterForkbeard
@T S: “The first person to invoke Star Wars in a thread is an awesome person”? :)
Villago Delenda Est
Freeing one hostage, with the hope of freeing the other hostage in a few weeks, is not a bad deal. Because if the second hostage is not freed, it’s all exclusively on the GOP, specifically on ZEGS. Who, along with McConnell, needs to roast in a fire.
James E. Powell
If John Cole was wrong than I was wrong, too, and I apologize. But I’m still thinking “Your father did business with Hyman Roth, he respected Hyman Roth… but he never *trusted* Hyman Roth!” I’m still thinking that with all the wisdom and skills of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi over the last decade or so, with all the eleven-dimensional chess, we still ended up where we are.
Villago Delenda Est
@James E. Powell: They don’t trust McConnell. But they have him on record.
Frankensteinbeck
@James E. Powell:
Welcome to living in a democracy when half the population is in a racial panic. Even the most skilled leadership can only do so much.
EDIT – @Villago Delenda Est:
I’m assuming McConnell will renege. Taking that as a given, this deal is still great for us and godawful bad for him. He’s right back where he was with a much, much weaker hand.
SFAW
@MisterForkbeard:
Hmmm …. I hadn’t considered that before, but what you say makes a lot of sense. Maybe I’ll register as a
RedGreen!cain
@T S:
How about Batman instead?
“Winged Freak terrorizes? Wait till they get a load of me” – Joker (McConnell)
I don’t have any quotes in Star Trek (just not as quotable)
T S
@MisterForkbeard: @MisterForkbeard: Agree. Seriously, people should look at this from the perspective of the bare equivalent situation: it is like we are having the SAME battle for the next 3 weeks, except government employees are getting paid and CHiP was magically removed from the negotiations…as opposed to pissing everyone off about a gov shutdown for 3 weeks and letting the MSM slowly beat it into everyone’s head this is really the Dem’s fault, they don’t care about poor white children only illegal immigrants. And if you think that messaging wasn’t working…it was.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Gods, they got CHIP and the Republicans dorked it again by kicking the can down the road on the budget.
trollhattan
@SFAW:
Flake was more than ready to vote for the PoS tax bill so no reason to trust him on this.
SFAW
@Villago Delenda Est:
I hear Nat King Cole’s voice singing
“Traitors roasting on an open fire”
cain
@T S:
Of course, I need to now put on a robot chicken star wars sketch
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Major Major Major Major: I’m guessing that one didn’t poll well or they got other indicators that the Sophie’s Choice ploy was backfiring. They wouldn’t do it just because it’s the right thing to do. If they ever do ANYTHING that is the right thing, it’s a side-effect or accident.
Aleta
@MomSense: well said
patroclus
Uh oh. Like in Star Trek Into Darkness with McCoy and Spock, it makes me very uncomfortable when Cole and I agree on something. I’ve been saying for days in these threads that the Dems should reach a deal for a shorter CR and get some DACA vote promises and put S-CHIP in the bag and eliminate those Obamacare tax delays and no one agreed. Now, even Cole agrees.
Maybe I should re-think this…
PAM Dirac
@Spanky: I think it is worse than Drumpf is a non-player, it hammers home that he is a lousy player. Nothing can get done until you take him and his horrible staff out of the picture. The Democrats now have CHIP off the table and the notion that the president is an incompetent puppet of his extremist staff is even being echoed by Republican senators. I don’t see how that does anything but increase the odds for getting DACA. Still might not be enough, but I think when you are in the minority, you have to keep bumping things by a little bit in your direction to get anything done.
trnc
@T S:
If McConnell thought that, he would have left the shutdown in place for several more days and would not have made any deal.
Tenar Arha
Cheryl & Adam have both pointed out that 45’s actions will push our allies closer together. Here’s a high level example; note the bilingual nature of the co-heads-of-states’ speeches, how they switch languages seamlessly at the end. (sorry I didn’t really look for an English subtitles version bc this was so clever)
schrodingers_cat
@Rand Careaga: True for the most part. I haven’t seen an apology for lionizing GG, Snowden and Manning. Or may be I just missed it.
WaterGirl
@T S:
I am not familiar with what action related to the border wall you’re referring to here.
Mnemosyne
@KithKanan:
FWIW, the filibuster is the only thing that got us to this point. Without it, the previous bill would have passed and we wouldn’t have CHIP renewal at all.
We got them to free one of the hostages. Now we have to work to get the second one freed, too.
MomSense
@Gelfling 545:
Exactly. He’s weak and intimidated by a 32 year old punk and a General who doesn’t respect the chain of command.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@No Drought No More: It leaves their fate undecided for three weeks, admittedly. But it means they are going to be the single line in the sand for Democrats on the next round of budget talks. And if the deal for DACA is not good in February, then the Republicans get to enjoy the blame for another shutdown.
I’m sure they’re going to be working on how to screw DACA kids *and* get the Dems to take the blame. I’m sure they’ll be working that message 24/7 on Fox. We’ll see how that plays out and how well our side, you know the one that deals with the actual universe of reality, keeps on message.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Do you have evidence it was working? The Republicans had the majority as I understand it in the Senate but couldn’t get a bill passed due to their own fractiousness. They owned it.
MaryL
@trollhattan: Of course he voted for the tax bill. He never claimed he would do otherwise. The tax bill fit precisely within his ideological wheelhouse. It was what he wanted. This is a different situation.
I freely admit that I am sometimes overly willing to give people the benefit of the doubt (although other times I am more skeptical than may be warranted), but my general approach to predicting individual behavior is to look at incentives. I don’t see that Flake has any incentive to back down on this. I’m not saying it’s 100%, but I’d put the odds on 50-60%. Ultimately, however, Flake’s position may be irrelevant.
Roger Moore
@MisterForkbeard:
We can’t force a vote if the Republicans are unified against it, but there’s always the theoretical chance of a discharge petition if there are enough Republicans who genuinely want it to come for a vote. It’s a remote possibility, since signing a discharge petition on an important issue like that would effectively be a vote against House leadership. A successful discharge petition followed by a successful vote would be a serious blow to Ryan’s prestige, so it’s unlikely enough- or even any- Republicans would sign one unless they’re willing to end his Speakership.
SFBayAreaGal
@Emma: Words of wisdom. I agree 100%
Aleta
@SFAW:
“Liars chipping off their nose”
JaneSays
It’s fantastic news that CHIP will be funded for the next 6 years, but the 6 year funding of CHIP was already included in the CR that passed the House last week and failed in the Senate, so I’m not sure what was substantively gained here.
Ruckus
@MisterForkbeard:
Some people can not be saved from themselves. You try, you fail, you try again, you fail. At some point you have to cut your losses and move on without them.
Not saying this is that point we do that here, but also not saying it isn’t. And really anyone who doesn’t understand the two party system we actually have over a year after Nov 2016 is very probably a lost cause.
Johnnybuck
@Frankensteinbeck:
Exactly! Clearly they were seeing something in their internals for him to make this deal, because if they didn’t have to give anything they wouldn’t.
JaneSays
@But her emails!!!: The exact same ACA poison pills are also included in the bill that just passed…
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/senate-poised-pass-bill-end-government-shutdown-n839861
The only thing that has changed is a vague commitment from McConnell to address DACA in coming weeks.
patroclus
@JaneSays: The House version also delayed the implementation of several revenue streams in Obamacare for 1-2 years (medical devices and others) – the Dems took those out. They also shortened the length of the CR to 17 days meaning we’ll be back to square one on 2/8 but with the S-CHIP hostage freed.
Johnnybuck
@trnc: Yep
But her emails!!!
@JaneSays:
The gain is that it doesn’t include the ACA undermining poison pills that were in the last one and why Democrats didn’t support it.
Mnemosyne
@No Drought No More:
That was going to happen anyway if we didn’t make this deal, PLUS children with cancer were going to start dying because their healthcare got taken away.
You may be willing to let other people’s kids die for your principles, but I’m not.
JaneSays
@T S: We were there last week – 6 years of CHIP funding was already included in the CR that failed last week.
WaterGirl
@JaneSays: Mayhew had something in the previous post about these being taxes nobody particularly liked in the first place. I am not at all sure that these taxes include the ones we hated from last week.
Villago Delenda Est
@cain: OK, this is, in a roundabout way, a SW reference, since Hamill (brilliantly!) does the voice of the Joker.
JaneSays
@Mnemosyne: I’m glad that we got the CHIP funding in place, but we would have had it with the CR that was shot down last week as well. We didn’t gain anything today that wasn’t already included in the bill that was rejected last week aside from a vague commitment to address DACA in coming weeks.
Eolirin
@Roger Moore: I suspect Ryan allowing a vote on a clean DACA bill would also end his speakership, so…
JaneSays
@WaterGirl: That may be so, not sure. As I understand it, it’s the medical device tax and the so-called “Cadillac” tax. But both of those taxes were to be suspended with the previous CR as well.
I guess what I would like to know is specifically what makes this bill any different than the bill that failed last week. I know we got McConnell on the record saying that DACA will be addressed before February 8th, and that’s definitely a good thing, but I’m not really sure that we gained anything other than that.
Roger Moore
@Dmbeaster:
And the Dreamers are 3 weeks closer to deportation. Delay is not without cost here.
clay
@cain: McKHAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNalllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MaryL
@Eolirin: I don’t necessarily disagree, but at the same time I’m not sure anyone else could garner enough votes to replace him.
JaneSays
@Mnemosyne: That’s incorrect. The previous bill which was filibustered also included 6 years of CHIP funding.
Mnemosyne
@Tenar Arha:
The comments to that thread made me realize that “The Big Bang Theory” is more of an international hit than I ever realized. ?
KithKanan
@Mnemosyne: I know it did. As far as I’m concerned the rest of the country voted for these abominations, and they deserve to get what they voted for good and hard.
The filibuster lets the GOP make promises they have no intention of keeping and then blame Dems when they can’t deliver.
I fully admit I’m not rational right now. The first time in my whole life I’ve ever hated anyone was the night of the election, when I realized how much of the country hates us so much they voted for this abomination and started hating them just as much in return.
It’s a very good thing I’m not making strategy, because my preferred orders for the congressional party would be Order No. 227. “Not one step back!”
Julia
Flake is a true conservative, particularly on economic issues, but he’s not cruel. Arizona has a LOT of Dreamers and I believe he will stand up for them, especially as he’s not running again.
But her emails!!!
@JaneSays: You are probably correct. The major difference is this CR is only through February 8th. It’s not an entire 4 weeks.
JaneSays
@patroclus:
Would be great if that were so, but it’s not – the delayed implementation of revenue streams for Obamacare (medical device tax and Cadillac tax) is still included in the bill that just passed today.
Eolirin
@clay: That was brilliant.
Matt McIrvin
I think it’s easy for anyone who was around during the George W. Bush years to assume that Democrats are fundamentally spineless and anything they do is “caving,” because so much of that happened in the fear-charged political environment following 9/11, and then the Republicans were able to do so much damage under both Bush and Obama just by being an absolutely solid bloc.
But I’ve actually been favorably surprised by how much solidarity the Democrats have shown in the Trump era, and how difficult it is for the Republicans to get anything passed by the old hyperpartisan rules.
patroclus
@JaneSays: There has been no vote as yet – the only vote that has occurred is the cloture vote. I guess what we are disagreeing about is unclear at present.
JaneSays
To be clear, I think it’s probably much better that this deal got made today than if it hadn’t, but I think there’s a lot of misinformation about what exactly was gained today that wasn’t already available last Friday. What the Democrats gained was a shorter time frame to force the GOP to address DACA, and an on-the-record commitment from the Senatortoise to address DACA before the new CR expires. We’ve also taken CHIP off the table as a hostage tool for the Republicans, but we could have had that last Friday as well. So basically, when we get close to the deadline next time, we’ll have an even stronger case for filibustering another CR if DACA hasn’t been addressed by then. Which is good.
T S
@JaneSays: Yeah, see, as the minority party with nothing but a fillibuster, they used what power it didn’t work. So here we are. Do you want them to nuke the filibuster? Really? Then the GOP can pass whatever stupid fucking legislation they want without any roadblocks at all. No fucking thanks.
VeniceRiley
I’m glad the Sophie’s choice is off the table and that CHIP got a 6 year re-auth in exchange for a 3 week funding.
But I’m also glad AF that Sen Harris voted NO, citing the known fact that Mitch Mc’s word is no good.
Gravenstone
@KithKanan: No, let it stand as a testament to the hubris and stupidity of the racist filth who clamored for it – after cutting large holes through it every 10-20′ of whatever length actually gets constructed.
WaterGirl
@JaneSays:
You seem to be deliberately ignoring information that we did, indeed, get some stuff beyond what was offered last Friday. Why don’t you google for the specifics rather than continue to write the same thing over and over again – which is that we got nothing that we could have gotten on Friday.
jacy
@JaneSays:
It’s not that the bill is different. That is not the point at all. The point is A) It shows that the Dems will shut down the government. B) It gets a promise — as useless as that promise it — to take up DACA. When it is not taken up, Mitch McConnell is a big fat liar, or it shows that the Republicans were never negotiating DACA in good faith, and they can’t claim that any more ever again. 3) It takes away a hostage from future negotiation. There are probably some other fine points. But the gist is that the shutdown was the best tactical move given the underlying realities. It was a way to create future advantage.
VincentN
@JaneSays:
If I understand what you’re saying you’re wondering what the point of this shutdown was at all since the Senate could have just passed the CR that already included CHIP funding and then we could have the shutdown later on when the CR ran out. Why bother having 2 shutdowns within weeks of each other?
From purely an optics point of view, it shows the Democrats are willing to fight for the DREAMers with the concrete action of shutting down the government but also that they are willing to be reasonable by opening it up again after they’ve made their point without imperiling federal employees and all those who rely on the various government services that would have been shut down.
And in 3 weeks if the government shuts down again it’s going to be much harder to argue that the Republicans didn’t know what to expect and now it’s their failure to come to a resolution that has led us to this unwanted place again. You get the ‘psychological pressure’ as it were of having 2 shutdowns with only 1 real shutdown occurring. Assuming that the 2nd shutdown is even longer if it happens.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@MisterForkbeard: Eh, I think you mean NORTH Korea.
patroclus
@WaterGirl: Well, Jane brings up an important point – what is the final language of the yet-to-be-voted-on Senate bill? Does it eliminate the Obamacare tax delays or not? All we can really do is stay tuned and see.
Suzanne
@trollhattan:
OTOH, Flake has long supported a path to citizenship and grew up around Latino migrant workers. And he’s not up for re-election.
So I will give him a call, and I suggest y’all do the same.
Mnemosyne
@JaneSays:
David Anderson says differently in his post below, and I trust a healthcare expert at Duke over a random pseudonymous commenter on the internet. Sorry.
Gravenstone
@Eolirin: Well, he keeps playing coy on whether he’s actually going to run for re-election, so maybe he’d actually be willing to do something like that just so he could take the Boehner exit, with middle fingers held high towards the Freedom Caucus morons. Of course, he’d actually need a soul first first to do something good like that, so likely not.
Aleta
Defunding CHIP would have brought Repubs months of bad press and stories of betrayed T. supporters. They couldn’t not do it.
ETA But the inhumanity of the situation had to take precedence for Democrats.
LAC
@Emma: and stop screaming like red faced banshees on one post only to come back on the next after FINALLY READING SHIT to assess stuff. This is hard enough without having to talk hysterics off of ledges. And i am furloughed…jaysus
Groucho48
I think Dems need to focus on two things over the next few weeks. Flood the talk shows and media with Dems calling on Ryan to have a clean vote on DACA, and, appeal to Trump and public opinion to halt all action against Dreamers until Congress votes on DACA.
MisterForkbeard
@JaneSays: There are different ACA provisions in this one, so that’s a bonus. We also got an *explicit* promise on a clean DACA vote. So yes, these are definite gains over the previous bill.
EDIT: Whoops, might be wrong about the ACA provisions. Still an improvement, especially tactically.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: No. We heard just a few days ago that Trump was pressuring South Korea to say that Trump was a major beneficial reason why North and South Korea are talking now, despite that this is the result of an ongoing process that’s taken several years. Though it IS actually true that North/South Korea have had a bit of a breakthrough because SK is trying to de-escalate after Trump’s bellicosity.
South Korea did formally give Trump credit for the talks, I think.
HinTN
@catclub: If the Senate passes it a Discharge Petition can get it to the Floor of the House for a vote.
leeleeFL
@schrodingers_cat: I applaud you as well, JC. It takes courage to admit when we are wrong. I remind myself of that all the time.
Sloane Ranger
FWIW I think both Flake and Graham will stand firm on DACA. Graham sounds pissed off with how the Thursday meeting went down and sounded like he really hates Miller when interviewed over the weekend, while Flake sounds angry and frustrated with the entire situation. He told an interviewer that if Trump can’t or won’t say what he’ll sign the Senate should just pass something and put the whole mess back on Trump’s desk.
Also, reading between the lines of their on camera statements to the press, I think other Repubs are reaching the end of their tether too.
I agree that Shumer has played the poor hand he was dealt as well as he could. He wasn’t helped by the entire media framing it as Dems more worried about foreigners than sick American kids. If McConnell reneges I think the media framing is much more likely to be about bad faith by the Thug leadership.
JaneSays
@Mnemosyne: What exactly was different about last week’s CR?
Because I’ve got about a gazillion links to credible news sources indicating that the 6 year CHIP funding was included in it if you would like.
JaneSays
@Mnemosyne: Don’t take my word for it, here’s a credible news link from a story last week indicating that what I said was true…
Last paragraph.
efgoldman
@MisterForkbeard:
Judges and other appointments. No more zeroing out agencies they don’t like. No more pro forma hearings for unqualified/unethical/criminal appointees
That’s definitely not nothing.
efgoldman
@JMG:
What makes you think that? The Dems that voted “no” were able to do so because it didn’t matter – free votes, no political cost, like when Suzy Q voted against some nominees.
Groucho48
@JaneSays:
My understanding is that the House bill would fund CHIP by taking money away from Medicare and would also allow states to dump more people off medicare and cut Obamacare money for clinics and such. Are those things in this proposed bill?
J R in WV
@JaneSays:
It passed in the Senate, where it failed earlier, as you said. Did you even read what you wrote?