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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Where are dem votes

Where are dem votes

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I am not a mathematician. However, on most days I can count to at least eleven with my shoes on. ‘

Where are the votes and why do Democrats have an incentive to provide any votes?

The House Freedom Caucus is sufficiently large to deny any continuing resolution (CR)a Republican only majority. If they vote against a CR because of Cost Sharing Reduction subsidy appropriations (CSR), then the continuing resolution needs Democratic votes in the House to pass. Any CR needs at least 8 Democratic votes in the Senate (probably more as several Republican Senators voted against the short term CR).

If Democrats supply votes to pass a CR with CSR funding, they increase the probability that the tax bill passes while making the subsidized insurance buyers worse off.

Why would they do that?

Where are the dem votes for a deal that advances any of their interests?

Reader Interactions

54Comments

  1. 1.

    Corner Stone

    If Democrats supply votes to pass a CR with CSR funding, they increase the probability that the tax bill passes while making the subsidized insurance buyers worse off.

    The main problem is that Collins is an untrustworthy narrator/partner. The D’s could vote against a CR that has CSR’s and Collins could still easily vote for the tax bill. I just don’t think it matters anymore at this point. The D’s should try to get whatever they can that they think has merit, and not try to game out waffle house motherfuckers like Collins.

    ETA, I personally am against working with the R’s or Trump on anything any longer and suggest a complete strategy of no D votes for anything.

  4. 4.

    Culture of Truth

    looks like a Balloon Juice commenter called it weeks ago: Tavis Smiley by PBS suspended due to “troubling allegations”

  5. 5.

    kindness

    The Democratic votes for any of these are in the fevered dreams of Susan Collins.

    She’s a facade that I’m tired of.

  6. 6.

    Tim C.

    Why would the D’s vote for anything at all? The GOP spent 8 years spiking everything good or bad because they knew they could blame Obama for any pain felt. Likewise, Why should we cooperate in making half a poop-sandwich? Is it going to produce better outcomes if we do? Does this help real people?

  7. 7.

    Parallax

    Agreed. I’m wondering why Democrats don’t tell Republicans that if they pass their pigshit tax bill through reconciliation, they’d better plan on raising the debt ceiling on their own. Why are they such pussies, forever afraid of standing for anything?

  10. 10.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    ave Weigel‏Verified account @ daveweigel
    Ady Barkan, the activist whose confrontation w Jeff Flake over tax cuts went viral, was arrested after a day of Capitol Hill protests.

    Collins had, I believe agreed to meet with him today

    ETA: looking around twitter, I can’t find the name/tweet from the Maine mother who says, IIRC, Collins promised to preserve the rules that saved her daughter’s life. Anybody remember her name?

  11. 11.

    Yarrow

    @Culture of Truth:

    looks like a Balloon Juice commenter called it weeks ago: Tavis Smiley by PBS suspended due to “troubling allegations”

    From the Variety article:

    The investigation found credible allegations that Smiley had engaged in sexual relationships with multiple subordinates, sources said. Some witnesses interviewed expressed concern that their employment status was linked to the status of a sexual relationship with Smiley. In general, they described Smiley as creating a verbally abusive and threatening environment that went beyond what could be expected in a typical high-pressure work environment. Several expressed concerns about retaliation.

    Doesn’t surprise me at all. For various reasons I saw the first couple of episodes the season he was on Dancing with the Stars. He frequently came across as angry. I know they can manipulate the rehearsal footage, which is taped, but the performances and interviews afterwards are live. In those he seemed like such an asshole with a chip on his shoulder. Hearing he was verbally abusive doesn’t surprise me having seen those episodes.

  12. 12.

    Cookie Monster

    I just don’t see what could be in it for either Democrats as a party, or for the American people that would make voting for it ever worthwhile. It’s a garbage fire. Don’t vote to throw more gasoline on it.

  13. 13.

    The Dangerman

    To roughly paraphrase Trump tweets, if Republicans pass the Tax Bill under reconciliation, the response to vote for any CR is simple. ESAD!

  14. 14.

    Brent

    @Culture of Truth: I knew it! I absolutely knew that guy was “wrong.” I kinda sorta had contact with him some in his BET days and I never saw any incident but I am telling you that this does not surprise me even slightly.

  15. 15.

    MomSense

    Collins. Ugh. I don’t know where to start with all the ways she has infuriated me over the years. The thing is, she is what we have to deal with and we are working this problem as well as we can.

    I’m laid up with the cold from hell but I’ve been doing phone calls asking people to call her office. Clergy (several dear friends) have been arrested at her office. We are protesting, visiting her offices, ringing her phones off the hook, writing letters to the editor, and anything and everything else we can think of. If she forsakes her constituents and votes for the Republican tax scam, it won’t be because we let her off easy.

    I can’t get attached to outcomes. Just fight. Do one thing every day. That’s all we can do.

  17. 17.

    LurkerNoLonger

    If they want Dem votes they’re not going to come cheap; CHIP, fully-funding ACA and protecting Dreamers. All or nothing.

  18. 18.

    Mary G

    Ed Kilgore at NY Mag talked about this today – apparently Dems are scared of triggering a goernment shutdown before Christmas for fear they will be blamed?

    Democrats could retain leverage by linking protection for Dreamers to the next stopgap funding deadline early next year. This way, Democrats can’t be blamed for ruining Christmas for millions of federal employees.

    One possibility, according to aides, is for Democrats is to secure a handshake agreement with Republican leaders to address the issue early next year.

    They might want to ask Senator Susan Collins, who provided a key vote for the GOP tax bill in exchange for spending concessions that have now evaporated, about the value of “handshake agreements” with the people currently running the federal government. The other problem for Democrats is that advocates for immigrants and militant progressives generally won’t be happy with the idea of a stand-down on Dreamers:

    “If Congress goes home for Christmas and leaves Dreamers in the cold, there will be a grassroots uprising that will scorch every legislator who fails to do what’s right,” Ben Wikler, MoveOn.org’s Washington director, said in an interview.

    Congressional Democratic leaders have decided that’s a risk they are willing to take.

    Seems incredibly stupid to me.

    ETA: sorry forgot link, hope FYWP will allow it: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/democrats-wont-shut-down-government-to-protect-dreamers.html

  19. 19.

    Yarrow

    Oh, for fuck’s sake. These people are so dumb and incompetent.

    NEW: The Schumer forgery hyped by @Cernovich plagiarized a portion of the Conyers complaint—including "House Rule 23" https://t.co/1HlHd8xdQS— Justin Miller (@justinjm1) December 13, 2017

    The genius who forged the sexual-harassment complaint against Chuck Schumer literally copied-and-pasted from John Conyers complaint https://t.co/1HlHd8xdQS pic.twitter.com/2KhiAEgu4E— Justin Miller (@justinjm1) December 13, 2017

    Rage Furby is involved in this. Would be nice to see him pay a real price for this kind of crap.

  20. 20.

    TenguPhule

    @MomSense:

    she is what we have to deal with and we are working this problem as well as we can.

    No we’re not. They whacked Franken. Collins is still in the Senate.

    We are not following the Capone rule. And that’s just wrong.

  23. 23.

    B.B.A.

    @Yarrow: Between this and the Veritas “Moore accuser” who got thrown out of the Post, it appears that the chances of successful ratfucking on this issue are pretty damn low…or maybe these particular ratfuckers are just morons.

  24. 24.

    Roger Moore

    @Yarrow:

    The Schumer forgery hyped by @Cernovich plagiarized a portion of the Conyers complaint—including “House Rule 23”

    At least they didn’t cite Internet Rule 34.

  27. 27.

    Roger Moore

    @B.B.A.:

    it appears that the chances of successful ratfucking on this issue are pretty damn low…or maybe these particular ratfuckers are just morons.

    I think it’s the second, given that the attacks on Franken seem to have been largely manufactured or exaggerated. My gut feeling is that it will be hard to make something up out of whole cloth, but exaggerating a minor transgression into a hanging offense is likely to remain successful.

  32. 32.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    Wow. Tavis spent 9 years attacking Obama on a personal level. Turns out Tavis is scum.

    HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCONODE!

  33. 33.

    Corner Stone

    @Mary G:

    apparently Dems are scared of triggering a goernment shutdown before Christmas for fear they will be blamed?

    There is zero chance that any shutdown will come to rest on the D’s plate. The R’s own everything. Period.
    We need to just shut up, stand together and let R’s spin faster and faster. I would not give them a fucking penny I found smashed on the railroad tracks.

  35. 35.

    Mnemosyne

    @Roger Moore:

    I agree. Murky “he said/she said”-type stuff is going to be a lot harder to fight against.

    I’m guessing that they’ve turned to forgery because Franken’s railroading on anonymous charges didn’t go over very well with right-wing columnists, so they may fear there’s not enough appetite on their side for those kinds of attacks.

  40. 40.

    Corner Stone

    @Steve in the ATL: Apparently everything is. I got trucked by a couple of bullies for simply calling you a pimp in the most friendly way possible.
    What has this place come to? That I can’t even call another man a pimp? SAD!

  44. 44.

    TenguPhule

    The deal also includes a provision from the Senate plan that would undermine a part of the Affordable Care Act requiring almost all Americans to have some form of health insurance or face a financial penalty. The provision, which was not included in the House bill, is projected to reduce government spending on health-care subsidies but leave millions more without insurance in a decade and lead to a broad increase in insurance premiums.Republicans plan to release the full details of their tax plan by Friday, then hold a vote in the Senate as soon as Monday.

    This is all kinds of fucked up and bullshit.

    They’re gonna do a Friday news dump and vote on Monday.

  45. 45.

    The Moar You Know

    Congressional Democratic leaders have decided that’s a risk they are willing to take.

    @Mary G: If…IF this is true, then they have just lost both houses for 2018.

    I do not see Schumer being that stupid. I wish I could say the same about Pelosi but I cannot.

  46. 46.

    TenguPhule

    @Mary G:

    Seems incredibly stupid to me.

    And therefore sadly plausible for our team’s leadership.

    First December extension was stupid, but understandable.

    Twice is unforgivable.

  48. 48.

    J R in WV

    @Corner Stone:

    Don’t worry, you can send me abusive emails if they shut you down here. I think I’ve EFG’d you several times at 2 or 3 am, so turn about is fair play!

  50. 50.

    randy khan

    @Tim C.:

    On the CR, the Dems basically can control what’s in it to get their votes. A couple of obvious things come to mind, like DACA and no cuts to social programs. Whether CSRs are in it may be something to consider gaming.

  51. 51.

    Corner Stone

    @J R in WV: That’s quite kind. But when I go after someone there’s little mistake about it. I had a bully FP pull my run of the mill comment. And then another fucking bully try to shut me down because I objected.
    People who have all the power should be seriously practical/pragmatic about the implementation of that power. I strenuously object to the attempt to cow me by saying I have had my “one warning” and then someone who has no clue what is going on threatening me.

  53. 53.

    scott (the other one)

    Here’s the thing. Trump won Alabama by 28 points. He lost Maine by 3 points.

    Chuck Schumer needs to go to Susan Collins and say, listen, I know you’re popular there. You think you’re more popular than a Republican evangelical in Alabama? You’re looking at a very different landscape. Your best bet for political survival is to run as far away from Donald Trump as fast as you can while you can. Start voting the right way now and we’ll go easy on you come election time. Keep toeing the GOP line and we’re coming at you hammer and tongs—you’re one of our three main targets. it’s your call. Hell, go the Angus King route and switch to being an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats and we’ll give you a leadership position. It’s your call.

    Collins is a weasel but she’s not an idiot. I feel like there’s a pretty good chance to get her and Murkowski to start voting on the side of the angels quite a bit more than is typical for them.

    Either way, target their seats with everything we’ve got.

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