Cassidy-Graham-Heller is a real threat. The post below is an inventory of four separate analysis of the flow of funds between states under C-G-H in 2026 compared to current law as projected by the Congressional Budget Office. I am just collating and collecting the information.
Center for Budget Policy and Priorities is a liberal think tank. They use the 2016 budget baseline and attempt to approximate eligibility through the Current Population Survey. They analyse state funding swings in millions of dollars.
The New York Times uses Census, Kaiser Family Foundation, CBPP and CMS data to estimate per capita changes in expenditure by state in 2026.
Manatt is a program design and evaluation consulting firm. They are using 2017 as their cost baseline year with 2015 Medicare spending variations to simulate state level risk adjustment. I am using Table 1-A.
UPDATE #1 (1045) MY ERROR — Manatt’s initial data displayed was for 2021 not 2026. Will be making a few changes to the data and post.
UPDATE #2 (1105) I updated the column that pulled the Manatt data from 2021 to 2026. That was me not lining up my column headers correctly when I ripped the data from the PDF and put it into a text editor. The second issue is a point that was raised over e-mail. They are evaluating just the change of federal flows to the state due to the block grants and not Medicaid. CBPP looks at both so it is an apples to kiwi fruit comparison.
Avalere is another consulting and analysis firm with their own estimates. They are looking at total cumulative swing with billions of dollars as their unit of account. Data is extracted from figure 1. I will just show direction as I can not merge that data consistently. If there is a figure of under $1 billion dollars, I am using $500 million as a placeholder.
Update #3 (11:35) AARP has come out with some limited state specific analysis. I am not including it at this time.
My data is here. I show direction and size for CBPP, Manat, Avalere and direction only for the New York Times .
More analysis below the fold:
CBPP and the New York Times have the same sign in all cases. Manat goes in the same direction with 42 states when compared to CBPP/NYT and agrees with Avalere in 41 states. Avalere agrees with CBPP and NYT in direction forty eight times.
Manat projects that California and New York see federal funds flow decrease by less than $5 billion per state for the block grants by $11 and $13 billion instead of the $28 and $19 billion dollars that these states would lose under the CBPP projections from the combination of block grants and Medicaid per capita caps.
There is going to be a lot of variance based on assumptions that are made for the baseline year, inflation rates, medical inflation rates and a variety of other factors. The impressive thing, to me, is the general agreement on direction by these four different methods.
Elizabelle
I hate them. I just hate them.
Especially Graham and Cassidy, because they pretended to be better people than they are.
The Kimmel clip is getting heavy rotation on CNN. I want these fuckers to go down, and I want voters to remember this.
sharl
Is the auto-tweet feature for new B-J posts eff’d up? I went ahead and put together a tweet myself, via my own account (few followers + mildly creepy avi), but IMO posts like this deserve to be blasted out from more popular accounts.
ArchTeryx
@Elizabelle: The real question always is, will this, pass or fail, translate into votes? Because they will keep trying forever until they fuckiing have the reins of power yanked from their cold little hands.
Elizabelle
@ArchTeryx: They have to fail on this one. We have to make that happen, and try to make it hurt.
schrodingers_cat
I am getting NRA ads on the mobile site WTF?
JPL
@Elizabelle: The so called pro-life party, wants to rip health care from children, and kill millions of others.
rikyrah
@Elizabelle:
Come sit by me
Nicole
I just can’t wrap my head around the awfulness, the absence of humanity, necessary to push this through. How does a soul get so divorced from the human experience that they would kill people in order to give the wealthy even more money they don’t need? I don’t understand. And I don’t understand the mindset of family I have who continue to vote for them. Then again, I don’t really follow sports, so the whole “my team, good or bad” mentality is lost on me, too.
mai naem mobile
@schrodingers_cat: be happy. They’re wasting money in targeting a group they’ll never get.
mai naem mobile
There was an article in the Guardian a couple of days ago that said that the Kochs have intructed the GOP that their $400M kitty for 2018 is closed unless they pass tax reform and repeal Obamacare. The GOP is too stupid to ask the Kochs them where they’ll go with their $400M if they don’t get it done. Are they going to the Dems? To the Libretarians? Where? Keep in mind the Kochs literally have enough money to spend a million bucks a day and not spend their annual income. These people still want a tax cut.
Elizabelle
@rikyrah: With pleasure.
I hope this goes down to ignominous defeat, and will motivate a huge wave election for Democrats, in 2017 (NJ and VA governorships) and in 2018.
This is just plain terrorism in my book. It’s the KKK riding again, with a lot of the same targets (and you have become one, if you don’t have healthcare insurance through your job).
schrodingers_cat
@rikyrah: I think you were so right about why Rs hate President O. I think its the same thing that drives their hatred of liberals and immigrants too, they can’t stand it that these groups are more successful than they are. The same goes for all the rants about coastal elites. They are petty and jealous.
TomatoQueen
I want to make Lindsey Graham sorry he was ever born.
Ruckus
@schrodingers_cat:
And these are their better attributes. Everything else is far lower.
Ruckus
@TomatoQueen:
You’ve got a good start. I already am and I bet I’m in a cast of millions.
Raoul
@sharl:
This post didn’t end up on FB either, I’d like to share it there, so hope the social media thingy can be de-borked.
Beyond that, G-C is a shitshow, worse than ‘skinny repeal’ from what I can tell. G-d bless Jimmy Kimmel and let’s hope his very public, very relatable rant just blows up Cassidy completely. We all have to call to make that happen, of course.
And then, how can we help get his ass unelected from LA? (Which stands to lose $1.5Bn under his own freakin’ plan. Insane).
Irony Abounds
Time for a new Al Franken book: Fucking Lies and the Fraudulent Fucking Fuckshits who Fuck America by Telling Them.
rikyrah
@mai naem mobile:
got a link?
sharl
The kind of work David does is essential, especially in dire situations like this. But given the purely partisan politics behind this, a separate initiative might be helpful, specifically one ensuring maximum distribution of self-damning quotes from the supporters of this atrocity. Jeff Stein at Vox put a little something together and posted it this morning, and people on my twitter feed have been excerpting it since:
If your immediate response to that title is to note that it looks suitable only for masochists, you wouldn’t be wrong. And if offers no surprises for anyone who has been following along on this topic, i.e., the only thing they have to say in defense of the bill is that it kills Obamacare, and some of the more honest supporters may admit that this enables the tax cuts they want. Despite all that, it doesn’t hurt to have them on record with their brief corridor interviews. They clearly have nothing positive to offer, and their own sociopathic attitudes might serve to (again) rally all those who are already exhausted and busy from having fought this before, as well as life in general (and maybe hurricane recovery as well).
A couple samples:
These creeps are like Sauron’s orcs, they’re never gonna stop until they are wiped out politically.
sharl
@Raoul: I just saw that DougJ’s new post was tweeted out. I wonder if front pagers have the option of turning that feature off, in which case maybe David decided it was too wonkish for broad distribution. Or maybe it’s an option the front pagers have to enable, and he forgot to do it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
rikyrah
McCain 202-224-2235
Murkowski 202-224-6665
Collins 202-224-2523
Portman 202-224-3353
Capito 202-224-6472
Alexander 202-224-4944
sharl
I see one of my comments was thrown into moderation (too many links), so here’s a slimmed down version…
The kind of work David does is essential, especially in dire situations like this. But given the purely partisan politics behind this, a separate initiative might be helpful, specifically one ensuring maximum distribution of self-damning quotes from the supporters of this atrocity. Jeff Stein at Vox put a little something together and posted it this morning, and people on my twitter feed have been excerpting it since:
If your immediate response to that title is to note that it looks suitable only for masochists, you wouldn’t be wrong. And if offers no surprises for anyone who has been following along on this topic, i.e., the only thing they have to say in defense of the bill is that it kills Obamacare, and some of the more honest supporters may admit that this enables the tax cuts they want.
Despite all that, it doesn’t hurt to have them on record with their brief corridor interviews. They clearly have nothing positive to offer, and their own sociopathic attitudes might serve to (again) rally all those who are already exhausted and busy from having fought this before, as well as life in general (and maybe hurricane recovery as well).
Ohio Mom
@rikyrah: I don’t know how to put a link in a comment but the Guardian article was easy to google, at least the one from June was. Did not see a more recent article listed. But I don’t see why the offer wouldn’t still stand.
Think what a different world it would be if US newspapers regularly headlined the Kochs and their machinations…