There’s a party in my mind

I call bullshit:

Now more than at any point in its modern history, the party has reached such a breaking point that historians, political analysts and Republicans themselves say it faces the possibility of splintering and spawning a third party.

Republicans are, by nature, order-takers. They took orders from Reagan, they took orders from Bush I, they orders from W, and they’ll take orders from Trump. Full stop.

133 replies
  1. 1
    Davebo says:

    A guy can dream!

  2. 2
    Percysowner says:

    Yeah, if there were any of the real moderate Republicans left in the party, I’m thinking way back like Nelson Rockefeller or Dwight Eisenhower, maybe it would split. But today’s Republicans are comfortable with racism and misogyny as long as they get the promise of tax cuts and hurting the poors.

  3. 3
    ChrisH says:

    One hopes some proportion have the self capacity to stop, notice the skulls on their uniforms and think maybe we’re the baddies. One hopes…

  4. 4
    Brachiator says:

    Now more than at any point in its modern history, the party has reached such a breaking point that historians, political analysts and Republicans themselves say it faces the possibility of splintering and spawning a third party.

    Whatever.

    I’ll believe this if it actually happens.

  5. 5
    chopper says:

    dubious.

  6. 6
    Carol says:

    Spot on!

  7. 7
    Facebones says:

    Was this copy/pasted from an article written in June 2016? Wasn’t Trump’s nomination supposed to create a splintering of teh party?

  8. 8
    James Powell says:

    @Percysowner:

    But today’s Republicans are comfortable with racism and misogyny as long as they get the promise of tax cuts and hurting the poors.

    They are much more than comfortable with racism & misogyny. They are acutely aware that nurturing and exploiting racism and misogyny are the keys to acquiring and maintaining power.

  9. 9
    Eric NNY says:

    I’d hate to see them with less moderation. I mean they already encourage Nazis, what’s next? Feel free to speculate.

  10. 10
    Jeffro says:

    I’m not seeing it. Trumpism = GOP and GOP = Trump. The “principled conservatives” (don’t laugh) have nowhere to go (well they do, but most haven’t gone over to the Dems – yet) and they aren’t numerous enough to start their own viable party.

    Once charges start to drop, they’ll try to disown him and then – maybe – the ‘establishment’ folks will be back in control. But the damage should last through 2018 and 2020.

  11. 11

    These aren’t mutually exclusive analyses.

  12. 12

    Destroy the R party and salt the earth afterwards, they gave rise to this monster.
    I have figured out that great in MAGA is a euphemism for white. Their jihad against immigrants continues, after DACA, they want to get rid of TPS (Temporary Protected Status) can Katy fucking Tur or Maggie Steno Haberman ask T what his intent is? Does he want to get rid of all immigrants who are not from Europe?

  13. 13
    ruemara says:

    Unlike “unity” loving progessives, republicans always fall in line and vote to crush their enemies. I’d believe that headline more if it announced a wave of head explosions.

    @schrodingers_cat: Probably. I expect my green card renewal in 2019 to be fraught with difficulty if we don’t win big in 2018.

  14. 14
    Hungry Joe says:

    Right. AND They’re a rump party. AND they’re doomed by demographics. AND we should all invest in popcorn futures, sit back, and watch it all happen.

    Meantime they’re running the whole goddam country.

    Waiting for them to self-destruct is slo-mo suicide; we have to work our butts off and turn this thing around ourselves. This ain’t no party. This ain’t no disco. This ain’t no fooling around.

  15. 15
    nightranger says:

    @Jeffro: HAHAHAHAH!

    Republicans always come back to daddy. In the interm they furrow their brows and act all concerned, but when it comes time to vote they always vote for who they are told. Trump proved that it doesn’t matter how disgusting a candidate they pick. They will always vote for that person no matter who it is.

    You can ignore all the polls showing Republicans unhappy blah blah. They are meaningless. Every single Republican man and woman that voted for Trump will do it again in 2020. Every last one of them. 100% guaranteed.

  16. 16
    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon says:

    @schrodingers_cat: He wants to get rid of all immigrants who aren’t married to him.

  17. 17
    Chet says:

    I think all you need to know about this article is who it quotes:

    * Michael Beschloss
    * Pat Caddell
    * Bill Kristol
    * Michael Steele

    I like Beschloss, but he says “Basically, all you need are money, TV, communications and an issue.” No, you need to get on ballots. And for that, you need people. Lots and lots of people.

    I think it’s more likely that Trump gets a primary challenge in 2020. I can see Rubio taking another stab at it. Perhaps another “draft Romney” movement will surface.

  18. 18
    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon says:

    Rooting for injuries. Hoping the Rs come out of this a diminished party, and the Ds an embiggened one…

  19. 19
    cervantes says:

    I dunno. Trump wanted to cut the NIH budget by 20%, both houses have now voted to increase it. Doesn’t mean the party is going to break up but Orange Julius isn’t really in charge either.

  20. 20
    r€nato says:

    a third party, in order to be credible and actually win elections, requires infrastructure (which is neither quickly nor easily built from scratch), passionate volunteers, lots of money. It also helps to have a giant media megaphone. Without all of that, you have Americans United.

    Guess which faction gets all of that in a GOP divorce?

  21. 21

    @ruemara: Are you considering applying for citizenship?

  22. 22
    ruemara says:

    @schrodingers_cat: I have not enough for the legal costs. My medical bills are draining my resources.

  23. 23
    Starfish says:

    A while ago, DougJ had posted this ActBlue thing raising money for Doug Jones in Alabama running against the odious Roy Moore who is going to bring his version of Jesus down upon everyone. We didn’t make our funding goals that week.

    Anyway, a friend in Alabama pointed out that Doug Jones may have an actual chance of winning there because Roy Moore is so so awful.

  24. 24

    @Chet:

    I think all you need to know about this article is who it quotes:

    * Michael Beschloss
    * Pat Caddell
    * Bill Kristol
    * Michael Steele

    Oh, well, I’m done caring then.

  25. 25
    TenguPhule says:

    @ChrisH:

    One hopes some proportion have the self capacity to stop, notice the skulls on their uniforms and think maybe we’re the baddies.

    But they’re such artistically designed skulls. And they’re made out of such shiny silver. And anyway, aren’t skulls historically a symbol of power? Nobody ever talked about mountains of rib cages, you know.

  26. 26
    eric says:

    I think you will see fewer republicans, but not a third party. Whether those “former republicans” will vote for a Republican Party that is fully embracing the ugliest among us is the question for 2018 and beyond. So far there is not enough ballot box disaffection to matter on a november-to-november, state-by-state basis. Maybe the disaffection got Hillary more votes than Trump, but the more did not come from the right places.

  27. 27
    eric says:

    @ruemara: what are the legal costs of which you speak?

  28. 28
    TenguPhule says:

    @Hungry Joe:

    Meantime they’re running the whole goddam country.

    Worse, they’re in charge of the whole fucking country and not running it at all.

  29. 29
    Jeffro says:

    @nightranger: The slow erosion we’re seeing in most polls seems to indicate he’s losing some support. And anyone in the GOP who opposes him will have to deal with his upset mouth breathing base. We’ll see how it goes.

  30. 30
    catclub says:

    I will reprise a comment I Iaunched earlier:

    Michael Gerson said this about the wall:

    Republican enthusiasm for the Mexican border wall is limited by the fact that it is among the most wasteful, impractical and useless ideas ever spouted by an American president.

    But then I remembered Reagan’s SDI and Bush Jr’s Iraq War II, and the Wall looks like responsible limited government by comparison.

    Any other really good Republican ideas that I missed?

    I figure that Rand Paul and Ted Cruz would call Ike’s Interstate Highway system the wasteful and impractical idea.

  31. 31
    Thoughtful David says:

    @James Powell: To be fair, they’re very comfortable with treason and corruption, too.

  32. 32
    TenguPhule says:

    @catclub:

    Any other really good Republican ideas that I missed?

    Welfare reform. Tax Cuts. Social Security Ponzi Markets.

  33. 33

    @eric: Application fee + Biometrics ($725). The application is fairly straightforward unlike the one for a GC.

  34. 34
    catclub says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    * Michael Steele

    Michael Steele got a bum deal ( the black guy) from the GOP. He was head of the GOP in 2010 and they did fabulously well in those elections. So they dropped him. Reince Priebus was head of the RNC in 2012 and he kept his job.

  35. 35
    ruemara says:

    @eric: Not to mention legal representation for any issues or problems and the estimate was $3k.

    @schrodingers_cat: Damn. Every year it goes up and my friend the immigration paralegal said the regs are insanely tight now.

  36. 36
    TenguPhule says:

    Let us cleanse our mental palates with an observation from Hillary Clinton’s new book.

    “Attempting to define reality is a core feature of authoritarianism,” the defeated presidential candidate writes in What Happened, published on Tuesday. “This is what the Soviets did when they erased political dissidents from historical photos. This is what happens in George Orwell’s classic novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, when a torturer holds up four fingers and delivers electric shocks until his prisoner sees five fingers as ordered.”

    The goal is to make you question logic and and reason and to sow mistrust, Clinton writes. “For Trump, as with so much he does, it’s about simple dominance.”

    She argues that Trump has taken “the war on truth” to a whole new level. “If he stood up tomorrow and declared that the Earth is flat, his counselor Kellyanne Conway might just go on Fox News and defend it as an ‘alternative fact,’ and too many people would believe it.”

  37. 37
    the Conster, la Citoyenne says:

    @ruemara:

    It’s impossible to take “progressives” seriously until they understand you have to get back in power to make progress, which means giving Dems a mandate, which means just shut the fuck up about where their money comes from to mount a serious challenge. If you can’t take their money, drink their liquor and screw their women/men and then vote against them, you don’t belong in politics.

  38. 38
    catclub says:

    @Chet: jeffro said this:

    Once charges start to drop, they’ll try to disown him and then – maybe – the ‘establishment’ folks will be back in control.

    hence, Pence’s eyes on the future.

    I think it’s more likely that Trump gets a primary challenge in 2020.

    also Pence.

  39. 39

    @catclub: I more meant the rest of the list. As for the particular subject matter, Steele has been talking about the party’s need for reform and whatever for almost a decade now, and he can put up or shut up.

  40. 40
    patrickII says:

    I was listening To Rush Limbaugh just now telling his audience that the place to be was with the loser minorities because democrats were helping them instead of encouraging The winner majoraties. This sets up justification for treating minorities baddy now as well as fear of becoming a minority yourself.

  41. 41
    AnotherBruce says:

    There’s a party in my mind, and it will never stop.

  42. 42
    Barbara says:

    People who identify as Republicans will vote for Republicans. I don’t really think that point is up for debate at all. The question is to what extent party identification will shrink. The real contest is for people who aren’t really ideological but have always voted Republican because of family or local politics or business interests and so on. People who are the non-politician equivalents of Christine Whitman or Meg Whitman. I don’t know the answer to that and I doubt if there are sufficient signs afoot that anyone else does either.

  43. 43
    Roger Moore says:

    The idea of the Republicans splintering is implausible. What’s more likely- though not necessarily likely in an absolute sense- is that they’ll bleed voters who get turned off by their increasing extremism. Over time, this will cost them until things get really out of hand and they look hopeless as a national party. Once their support falls far enough they’re in danger of cascading failure. If the Democrats take full control of the government, they can undo Republican voter suppression and gerrymandering, and rich parasites who have stuck with the Republicans to get what they want will start to abandon them in favor of the Democrats. If/when that happens, they Republicans will be forced to adopt a completely different program to become competitive again, which will cause one of the rare, once or twice in a century major realignments.

  44. 44

    @ruemara: I filed it w/o going to an attorney. Let me know if I can be of any help. Since I did this in January, its still pretty fresh in my mind.

  45. 45

    Nope. They’ve already split. The Coercion Caucus are behaving as a third party with their own leadership, their own whips, and their own platform, the while (with characteristic dishonesty) pretending to still be part of the Regular Republican Party. This would be happening regardless of Presidential politics. Trump will follow whomever strokes his ego — and that is not a hint for the Democrats, because that game is not even slightly worth the candle (occasional tactical opportunities notwithstanding).

  46. 46
    Jeffro says:

    Btw folks, in The Atlantic this month: Will Donald Trump Destroy the Presidency?

    This made me laugh:

    …presidential norms, once broken, are hard if not impossible to restore. This can be true, but in Trump’s case isn’t…His successors are no more like to replicate his self-destructive antics than they would be if he yelled at the first lady during a public dinner or gave a televised address from the White House Rose Garden in his bathrobe.

    I think I laughed because I can, in fact, see Trumpov giving such an address…

    The latter part of the article talks about all the leaks and #resistance-related things that people in our institutions are doing to combat, or at least slow, the progress of this uniquely unqualified, malicious administration. Goldsmith sees this as a bad thing: I disagree. Leaks happen; more leaks happen when the administration is incompetent, lying, or both. Civilian oversight of the military will always have its issues; to date, all of the military folks “moves” have been in the direction of preserving our government and international order. The press is easy to bang on, but they have continued (for the most part) to simply point out when Trump and his associates are lying.

    And then the author goes on to worry his little self about Trumpov getting re-elected (“…it is conceivable that he will turn things around – for example, by pulling off tax and infrastructure reform* and putting Kim Jong Un in a box – and win the 2020 election, perhaps in a three-way race** “) I know we’ve been burned before by things inconceivable, but…c’mon, man. No way he even makes it to 2020 in office, much less wins.

    Also, fuck Bob Woodward (read the article).

  47. 47
    Amir Khalid says:

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:
    They call themselves “progressive” but they believe that progress is good only when made by champions who are pure. They refuse to learn that politics is no place for a saint.

  48. 48
    Oatler. says:

    @AnotherBruce: Same for me! Like the Holy Roman Empire, always shifting, perhaps imaginary, yet partying with unholy imperial glee.

  49. 49
    Jeffro says:

    And like an idiot I forget to include the link: Will Donald Trump Destroy the Presidency?

  50. 50
    randy khan says:

    The truth is that the Republican Party has broken up already, but so did the Democrats, and both parties reformed. The centrist/liberal Republicans are now Democrats; the racist Democrats are now Republicans.

    Now, there are enormous tensions in the Republican Party now, much different from the ’60s, but it seems like it’s been a stable configuration for quite a while, as the economic conservatives don’t mind the racists much, and many of the policies they like (no enforcement of regulation, for instance) partially enact what the racists want as well. I think a more likely outcome is not that the party breaks up, but that it slowly bleeds support as it is forced to stick with positions that most Americans find odious to keep the coalition together.

  51. 51
    boatboy_srq says:

    “The possibility of splintering” began during Civil Rights with Atwater, accelerated during the Shrub years and is now in full-blown segmentation. Trouble is, the segment that’s separating is the not-entirely-bvgfvck-crazy part, and they’re all fleeing to the Dems. The “Independents” in 2010s USA are the Republicans that don’t want to be associated with caving in to Pelosi when it’s time to decide between continuing operations or shutting government down, or who don’t want to publicly admit their commitment to white/male/Xtian supremacy.

    This “splintering” that’s being described now is merely variations of particular symptoms of a pathology, not signs of fragmentation, within the GOP.

  52. 52
    Brachiator says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Their jihad against immigrants continues, after DACA, they want to get rid of TPS (Temporary Protected Status) can Katy fucking Tur or Maggie Steno Haberman ask T what his intent is? Does he want to get rid of all immigrants who are not from Europe?

    This is a rhetorical question, right?

    Ann Coulter and the alt right demons have long been clear about this, and Trump, through Bannon and other cabinet choices, seemed signed on to it as well. The basic idea is that America’s whiteness needs to be preserved and refreshed. Latinos and blacks are a danger to the future of Trumpian America. Even East Asians are suspect, despite their being viewed by some as “model minorities.”

  53. 53
    the Conster, la Citoyenne says:

    @Amir Khalid:

    They’re spending all their time trashing every Dem not named Wilmer, instead of going after DeVos, Pruitt, etc. like Dems are the enemy. What a bunch of useless failures. Any politician taking any of them seriously is committing political malpractice – they’re the tea party of the left, and have to be strangled in the cradle.

  54. 54

    @Brachiator: Its not a rhetorical question, I want the President to be asked this question and I want his answer. I know the implied answer, I want him to come out and admit it.

  55. 55
  56. 56
    gene108 says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    can Katy fucking Tur or Maggie Steno Haberman ask T what his intent is? Does he want to get rid of all immigrants who are not from Europe?

    It is obvious to anyone paying attention that they want to stop immigration, even from many European countries, because they consider those Europeans communists.

    They want to sit in an isolated and insular America and pretend the USA is the King of the World.

  57. 57
    ruemara says:

    @Brachiator: I think Bannon was very clear what he thought of the “too many Asians” in Silicon Valley.

  58. 58
    Steeplejack says:

    @ruemara:

    Aren’t you the one who might actually be a citizen already because you were a minor when your parents were naturalized? Sorry if I’m remembering incorrectly.

  59. 59
    boatboy_srq says:

    @Jeffro: The one difference between the tRumpets and the “Establishment Republicans” is that the latter are still too polite to refrain from dogwhistling their bigotry.

  60. 60

    @ruemara: He hates the Indian CEOs of Google and Microsoft, or so I have heard.

  61. 61
    Baud says:

    Agree with Doug. Who exactly would split from whom?

  62. 62
    Tom Q says:

    I think the subtext of all articles like this is, the GOP is a horror-show, but the Dems, we all know, have cooties (an opinion formed c. 1981), so a third party is the only answer.

    When the Roosevelt coalition collapsed, first in 1968 and firmly in 1980/84, disgruntled Democrats moved over and voted Republican. You may hate them/think them crazy for doing it (I sure do), but it was rational behavior in a two-party system.

    What’s not rational is for people to understand they’ve nominated a lunatic/buffoon, but rely on others to do the voting that ensures he doesn’t become president. Republicans who voted Trump (or Johnson) secure in the knowledge Hillary was going to win (as they kept being told) are responsible for the mess we’re all in. And dreaming an imaginary third-way out of it is an extension of that fantasy. The only way to negate Trumpism is to vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is in 2020, no matter how much it makes your heart ache.

  63. 63
    --bd says:

    Gonna party ’til they dr-op.

  64. 64
    Rommie says:

    A) Facts not in evidence – I’ll believe in part of the coalition going rogue only when I see it happen. (See McCain, J.)

    B) “He who defends everything, defends nothing” Let the GOP continue to defend Teh Crazy. They’ll either box into a tiny tiny corner, or Win Everything, in which case we were doomed from the start.

    I mean, just think about the % of the base that would thumbs-up something like this statement, if it comes from the proper pie-hole:

    “SFaK is OK, they are fleabags that kill birds, and other animals, by the millions. SO many people are allergic to them, it’s good these pests are eliminated!”

  65. 65
    Brachiator says:

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    It’s impossible to take “progressives” seriously until they understand you have to get back in power to make progress, which means giving Dems a mandate, which means just shut the fuck up about where their money comes from to mount a serious challenge.

    “Progressives” seem intent on following Bernie Sanders into Purity Pony never never land.

    If you can’t take their money, drink their liquor and screw their women/men and then vote against them, you don’t belong in politics.

    Most famously attributed to California politician Jesse Unruh.

  66. 66
    But her emails!!! says:

    The Republican Party is far more likely to be completely consumed by hucksters and bring the entire county down. They’ve successfully poisoned a good portion of US voters against politicians and government to the point voters consider being a completely clueless asshat a strong qualification for office.

  67. 67
    catclub says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I have figured out that great in MAGA is a euphemism for white.

    make America hate again works also.

  68. 68
    Baud says:

    @Tom Q: According to the media lately, Trump is that independent candidate who bucks the two party system.

    I agree with you.

  69. 69
    Barbara says:

    @Amir Khalid: Or that Bernie Sanders is not actually a saint.

  70. 70
    TenguPhule says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    I know the implied answer, I want him to come out and admit it.

    Why?

    Do you really want to see 42% of America go “Fuck yeah” when he says he wants to kick all the darkies out of America?

  71. 71
    catclub says:

    @Brachiator:

    “Progressives” seem intent on following Bernie Sanders into Purity Pony never never land.

    and why not? tea party wackos get all the coverage, not moderates ( as if there are any left).

  72. 72

    I call bullshit too.

    Republicans are, by nature, order-takers. They took orders from Reagan, they took orders from Bush I, they orders from W, and they’ll take orders from Trump. Full stop.

    It’s true. My NeverTrump dad is starting to cave. He can’t stand being out of the fold, and it’s become obvious to him that Trump is not getting tossed out of office. He’ll cave. They all will. Save perhaps John McCain, because he’ll be dead soon, and he’s very stubborn.

    I’d hate to see them with less moderation. I mean they already encourage Nazis, what’s next? Feel free to speculate.

    @Eric NNY: Handing out white polo shirts, khakis, and old stock M-16s from Vietnam and telling the lucky recipients to clean up their communities.

  73. 73

    @gene108: Intent is obvious but I want them on the record.

  74. 74
    TenguPhule says:

    @The Moar You Know:

    My NeverTrump dad is starting to cave. He can’t stand being out of the fold, and it’s become obvious to him that Trump is not getting tossed out of office. He’ll cave. They all will.

    Trump has figured out how to get the slaves to put their own chains on.

  75. 75
    Shana says:

    @Percysowner: Our prior Congressman, Tom Davis – R, saw the writing on the Tea Party wall in 2010 and retired. He truly was a moderate R. I certainly disagreed with him on almost everything but he is a smart and decent guy.

    Now we’re represented by Gerry Connolly D who likely has the seat for life if he wants it.

  76. 76
    Barbara says:

    @Frank Wilhoit: Only for some purposes. I do agree that they are split in the sense that factions are so far apart that they find it almost impossible to pass anything even though they are the majority. But in other respects, the most crucial one, actually, they are unified, and that is, while they might not agree with each other at all, they both agree that working with Democrats to get something done would be worse. If we truly had three parties, the one with the plurality would work with whichever of the other parties would give it enough votes to do something it wants. That’s not happening.

  77. 77
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    shut the fuck up about where their money comes from to mount a serious challenge.

    This is where I am too. I really, truly, don’t give a shit about GOLDMAN SAX MUNNY and all this. If there are sane-to-liberal rich people in finance who want Democrats to run the state, _good_. If they want special favors, well, the answer is no. A lot of salt-of-the-earth types have terrible views on the world and terrible politics. Why are we supposed to be chasing after them instead of using the fortunes of the people pocketing crazy money crunching numbers for some kind of exotic investment fund… who happen to be in a line of work that’s overvalued _and they know it_ _and they want to use their filthy lucre for good_? We don’t do this with “trial lawyers” and other sources of Democratic money that the general public views with suspicion. I feel like we’re drawing the battle lines in very peculiar places. Especially when the candidate now beloved by the salt of the earth is an obnoxious, ostentatious person who’s been flaunting his wealth for 35 years.

  78. 78
    TenguPhule says:

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Intent is obvious but I want them on the record.

    They’ve gone on the record already.

    Muslim Ban.

    Mexican Rapists.

    Its not like they ever tried to hide this shit this time.

  79. 79
    gene108 says:

    @Roger Moore:

    idea of the Republicans splintering is implausible. What’s more likely- though not necessarily likely in an absolute sense- is that they’ll bleed voters who get turned off by their increasing extremism. Over time, this will cost them until things get really out of hand and they look hopeless as a national party. Once their support falls far enough they’re in danger of cascading failure. If the Democrats take full control of the government, they can undo Republican voter suppression and gerrymandering, and rich parasites who have stuck with the Republicans to get what they want will start to abandon them in favor of the Democrats.

    1. Where will Republicans bleed votes? Bleeding them in CA is meaningless. You need them to lose voters in WV, KY, MS, etc. and I do not see it happening.

    2. Voter suppression will get worse to offset losses. Only way to undo it is for Dems to take back state houses and governorships, starting in 2018.

    3. The rich bastards don’t want a big slice of pie. They want the whole damn thing. And they will continue to back Republicans because they promise them the whole pie, while Democrats will not. With billionaire sugar-daddies Republicans will never be on the outs for long. See the 2010 election.

  80. 80
    Barbara says:

    @The Moar You Know: I think you will see at least a few who will retire rather than capitulate. That is also starting to happen.

  81. 81
    catclub says:

    @Baud:

    According to the media lately, Trump is that independent candidate who bucks the two party system.

    Which is why every single member of his cabinet is hard core rightwing republican, and every new administration policy proposed and every judge nominated is also.

  82. 82
    SFAW says:

    @Starfish:

    Anyway, a friend in Alabama pointed out that Doug Jones may have an actual chance of winning there because Roy Moore is so so awful.

    Right.

    Does this same friend also point out that the Mets may have an actual chance of winning the World Series this year? Of course, it would require all the other teams to drop dead. Literally. But it could happen!

  83. 83
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Tom Q: It’s far too seldom noted that there was a corresponding shift in the 1990s whereby professional people in the suburbs started to swing Democratic. Maybe my impression is skewed from growing up in New Jersey in the 1970s and 1980s, but I felt like my somewhat-countercultural mother arrived in NJ thinking everyone was a Reagan-loving conservative, and yet now that’s pretty much home turf for middle-class-and-up Democrats.

  84. 84
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Barbara:
    Amen.

  85. 85
    Barbara says:

    @gene108: I disagree. Statewide elections or ruby red states are not where you are going to first see this. If I had to take bets, I think the leading edge of diminishing support will be in suburban swing districts in Illinois, New York, New Jersey and possibly Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (which are more gerrymandered). I would also start expecting to see diminishing support in “border” districts, like Will Hurd’s in Texas and the three Republican districts in South Florida. Those districts are already pretty close, and the fury over immigration and demonizing Latinos could actually make a difference there.

  86. 86
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @gene108: As long as what you mean by “rich bastards” is “super-rich ideologically-driven bastards.” Because I’m not even sure that rich people en masse care for Trump the person or Trumpism the agenda. That’s one of the groups he’s alienating with the relentless hatefulness and bigotry.

  87. 87

    I have figured out that great in MAGA is a euphemism for white.

    @schrodingers_cat: Took you this long? I knew it the first day I saw it.

    Their jihad against immigrants continues, after DACA, they want to get rid of TPS (Temporary Protected Status) can Katy fucking Tur or Maggie Steno Haberman ask T what his intent is? Does he want to get rid of all immigrants who are not from Europe?

    Not exactly. He wants to get rid of some from Europe as well. But you don’t need anyone to ask him, he and his voters have made it very clear that he was put in office to get all non-whites out of the country, citizen, legal immigrant or whatever. All gone. That is the plan and they’ve been more than clear about it.

    Its not a rhetorical question, I want the President to be asked this question and I want his answer. I know the implied answer, I want him to come out and admit it.

    @schrodingers_cat: I get that, but to what end? They won’t answer and if made to, won’t answer honestly. We already know what they answer is.

  88. 88
    SFAW says:

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    Any politician taking any of them seriously is committing political malpractice – they’re the tea party of the left, and have to be strangled in the cradle.

    Well, except that embracing the Tea Baggers helped them get control of all three branches.

  89. 89
    Starfish says:

    @gene108: My comment upthread is to help you with your hopelessness and despair.

  90. 90
    Starfish says:

    @SFAW: Did you read the article in their paper that I linked, or do you just snark?

  91. 91
    ruemara says:

    @Steeplejack: No, you’re correct. However, it’s still confusing because it was my stepfather who was naturalized when I was a minor and my mother, in her usual, useless fashion, dawdled until I was of majority. Which means I still need to consult a lawyer to determine if his being a stepparent counts, since he did not actually adopt me. Because my mother, bless her heart, is a very selfish, neglectful asshole and dressed me in cabbage rose dresses to boot.

    @FlipYrWhig: IOKIYHD (It’s OK If You Hate Dems) that’s the principle rule they abide by. Ask The Young Turks where their $20 million seed money last year came from. Buddy Roemer.

  92. 92
    catclub says:

    @SFAW: Yeah, the right way to put is that Jones will Probably do better against Moore than he would against the establishment, non-crazy Republican. And if all the planets align and there is an away football game and all the traveling fans can’t get back to vote, he could win.

  93. 93
    Tom Q says:

    @FlipYrWhig: Definitely — it’s what’s made the Clinton/Obama presidencies possible (also the Gore/H. Clinton popular vote wins). But there’s been more stubbornness about making the swing decisive — a greater percentage of I-hate-those-right-wingers-but-just-can’t-pull-the-lever-for-a-Dem folk who are enabling tactical GOP victories that belie public views on issues. E.g., the horrific numbers on the GOP health care plan are mostly distinct from Trump — the party’s ideas are hugely unpopular. Yet enough people voted to empower a Congress that came close to implementing it. Until those people vote for what they want, as opposed to against what they have anxiety about, the political situation isn’t going to resolve itself.

  94. 94

    @The Moar You Know: I want to see them squirm and made to own their noxious agenda.

  95. 95

    @ruemara: Were you 18 or 21. For many immigration benefits, majority is considered 21.

  96. 96

    @TenguPhule: I want to know how many agree with him, I like to know what I am up against. Ignorance is certainly not bliss.

  97. 97
    sharl says:

    Just gonna leave this here, even though the NYT piece linked in the O.P. was not authored by HaberThrush:

    Been trying to confirm this 100% for days. Just announced, @maggieNYT and @GlennThrush have a deal with Random House for a Trump book: pic.twitter.com/djToHODhph— Joe Pompeo (@joepompeo) September 12, 2017

    Here is the text shown in the image attached to that tweet:

    New York Times White House correspondents Maggie Haberman and Glenn Thrush‘s untitled book about the first years of the Trump administration, a comprehensive, deeply reported look at a history-making president, to Andy Ward at Random House by Elyse Cheney at Cheney Associates (NA).

    Well now if that isn’t a motivation for maintaining White House access, I don’t know what is.

  98. 98
    Jeffro says:

    Btw we interrupt this thread to note once again that the Ted Cruz campaign posters and TV ads that are flying around Twitter are. just. priceless.

  99. 99
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    Republicans are, by nature, order-takers. They took orders from Reagan, they took orders from Bush I, they orders from W, and they’ll take orders from Trump. Full stop.

    a) Republicans have been order takers since Lincoln. Why? Because the GOP has always been an alliance between Evangelicals AND Libertarians, though back in the day it was Abolitionists and Wall Street.

    b) Whose orders now? The Republicans have multiple masters like the Kotch Brothers and Fox News.

    c) Dear Leader has turned on the party.

    d) Weren’t the Republicans splintered from Goldwater tell Reagen?

  100. 100
    boatboy_srq says:

    @TenguPhule:

    Do you really want to see 42% of America go “Fuck yeah” when he says he wants to kick all the darkies out of America?

    There is the (faint) hope that, following that full-throated “Fvck yeah”, there’s a moment of echoing silence where at least a few of them stop and think “wait… did we really say that?”

  101. 101
    Jeffro says:

    @Jeffro: Oliver Willis: “Ted Cruz blames ‘staff’ for porn tweet, vows to initiate long, hard probe in effort to thrust to the bottom of this throbbing issue”. B+ but who cares?

    The tweets from fake Trump accounts are of course great.

  102. 102
    eric says:

    @schrodingers_cat: we can handle that here.

  103. 103
    eric says:

    @ruemara: i know a lawyer that can help at very very limited costs.

  104. 104

    I want to see them squirm and made to own their noxious agenda.

    @schrodingers_cat: They’re not squirming. Did you see what went down in Charlottesville? More of that to come. I know these people. I’m descended from them. Klan on both sides, multiple generations. If not for my parents moving to CA I don’t know what would have happened to me but it would not have been pretty.

    They’re not ashamed, they’re fucking thrilled that they can finally go public without worrying about the government coming down on them hard.

  105. 105
    J R in WV says:

    @ruemara:

    Have you considered a GoFundMe for citizenship costs? As well as a temporary boost for medical costs… worth thinking about.

  106. 106

    @The Moar You Know: Did you see their “march” in Boston after CVille? They could not gather 20 people for that. They were vastly outnumbered.

    ETA: Hardcore KKK won’t squirm, but I think they don’t have the numbers by themselves. In any case I want to know the extent of their support.

  107. 107
    SFAW says:

    @Starfish:

    Did you read the article in their paper that I linked, or do you just snark?

    Generally just snark.
    But that article is hardly reassuring. It would also not be reassuring if it showed Jones up by 5 points at this stage, instead of down 3.5 points. I have lost count of the number of times since around 2008 that I’ve seen pronouncements that “Deep Red State Rethug politician X is really in trouble!! Dem politician Y really has a chance, and could pull it off!!!!!!!!!!!!!”, only to have “the only poll that matters (except when a Dem wins)” — in other words, Election Day, give the expected result of the Rethug winning. I’m not even talking about Hillary, by the way — because of all the voter suppression, Russian interference, etc. — just talking about run-of-the-mill elections.

    I think catclub’s point @ 90 is a good one, you might consider it.

    Look, I really want to believe Jones has a chance, and will throw some money his way, but “betting against the House” has not usually been a winning strategery.

    Or have I missed a ton of elections where the Dems outperformed the polls? Far more often, it’s been a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  108. 108
    gene108 says:

    @FlipYrWhig:

    As long as what you mean by “rich bastards” is “super-rich ideologically-driven bastards.” Because I’m not even sure that rich people en masse care for Trump the person or Trumpism the agenda. That’s one of the groups he’s alienating with the relentless hatefulness and bigotry.

    Look there are plenty of billionaires, who do not approve of Nazis, who kind of like making sure we don’t pump so much CO2 into the atmosphere their grandkids will be living in Water World, etc., but those guys have never put their money into any political cause in a serious way. They aren’t throwing around billions trying to buy up media and influence the political discussions. They aren’t funding political action groups, and then spending hundreds of millions on-top of that to get their candidates elected every election cycle.

    If they bother to vote, they are nothing more than a few thousand votes, concentrated in already Democratic areas, like NYC or CA.

    They can be disgusted with Trump all they want, but unless they put their money up to do something about it in a big way, to rival the Mercers or Koch brothers, their disdain isn’t getting us any further than Betty-Lou, the hairdresser in Utah, whose upset she almost lost her Obamacare.

    Wall Street jumped ship, in a big way, from Democrats to Republicans and I don’t see them going back. They want to loot and plunder like they did in the 00’s and will never back Democrats because Dodd-Frank cut back into their looting and plundering, as well as the CFPB. And if Democrats want to keep millennials and other infrequent voters engaged, they can’t go back to sucking up Wall Street money anyway, because it will backfire on them anyway.

    The extraction industries are never going to back Democrats.

    That leaves tech-bros and Hollywood, and they aren’t much about getting into the political arena and even, if they did they may end up backing Republicans, because of tax cuts.

    I don’t think people realize the amount of money the conservative apparatus has access to and how it is distorting out politics, because there’s nothing even close to balancing it out the other way. A Democrat has a gaff, Fox News, Rush, et. al. will be on it immediately and keep on making so much noise, no one can ignore it, for days and days. There’s nothing equivalent to do that to Republicans. The Washington Post might run a page 3 article on it. CNN might bring it up once or twice. And even then Fox News, et. al. will bend over backwards to explain away why the Republican fuck-up is a nothing burger.

    Sorry, but the rich folks, who give a damn about politics and put up their money to make it so are all backing Republicans.

  109. 109
    Barbara says:

    @ruemara: Ruemara, don’t count this as legal advice, but ICE has a pretty good website that should answer both of your questions: From what I read there, a step-parent transfers citizenship only if there was an actual adoption, and your mother’s citizenship would transfer to you only if she was naturalized before you turned 18.

    See here: https://www.uscis.gov/us-citizenship/citizenship-through-parents

    Which is to say that you might want to consult a lawyer to help you apply for citizenship and he or she can verify the above, but most likely you are not already a citizen.

    To get information, try to stick with the official USCIS web site, which has links to any form you would need. You can get the form and fill it out and limit your need for a lawyer accordingly, however, in my experience, immigration lawyers often charge flat fees. There is still a benefit to doing it yourself because you know your information best.

  110. 110
    gene108 says:

    @Starfish:

    I’m not all that hopeless and despaired. I am amazed, with all the resources conservatives have, that they cannot steamroll the rest of us on a mere whim.

    I don’t see the big money switching to Democrats, even if Democrats win a lot, in an election or two. Democrats did this in 2006 and 2008 and the big money went to work to get the Republicans back in charge.

  111. 111
    gene108 says:

    @Barbara:

    Statewide elections or ruby red states are not where you are going to first see this. If I had to take bets, I think the leading edge of diminishing support will be in suburban swing districts in Illinois, New York, New Jersey and possibly Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (which are more gerrymandered).

    I think you are onto something. I think districts in CA or Latino districts in FL will start to flip first. PA is pretty gerrymandered. It’d take a major wave election to flip anything there.

  112. 112

    @Barbara: I am sure rue knows her stuff, she is one smart cookie.

  113. 113
    Starfish says:

    @SFAW: What do you see in mayoral races? I see a woman as mayor of one of the towns in Mississippi now. I see another one running for mayor of another town. That election is happening today. I am not sure how she will do.

  114. 114
    GregB says:

    Some point after McGovern’s loss, the Borg scooped out Pat Caddell’s brain and replaced it with a half pound of rancid cottage cheese.

  115. 115
    Matt McIrvin says:

    Trump is still quite popular with Republicans (and his overall support numbers have inched up a few points, probably just because the hurricanes pushed his stupidity of the day off the front page and FEMA hasn’t had a Bush-level screwup there). If the Republicans are going to splinter the end result won’t be a third party, it’ll just be the existing Republicans getting replaced by Trumpists, as with the Tea Party before them.

  116. 116
    JaneE says:

    Those who weren’t left the party long ago, but the purge is on-going as the party moves further and further right.

  117. 117
    Barbara says:

    @schrodingers_cat: I have worked with a lot of really smart people who get brainfreeze when they try to understand immigration requirements or apply them to their own situation. It’s daunting, plus it’s often upsetting to find out that requirements are so onerous.

  118. 118
    ruemara says:

    @J R in WV: I have all the luck and appeal of rancid fish vomit. My last crowdfunding netted me $35 bucks and I returned it to those folks. Better to not remind myself by yet another failure. It just means I’ll take things slowly.

  119. 119
    eric says:

    @ruemara: what you should do is talk with a lawyer and work slowly through what you need to do. Just put up and pay pal here and you will have the money. As for the lawyer, lets figure out how to connect. I have handled asylum and other screwed up cases (successfully) , so i can figure yours out as well.

  120. 120
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Jeffro: The erosion’s stopped and reversed for the time being, probably because of Harvey and Irma. Might just be a temporary blip but it remains to be seen.

  121. 121
    fuckwit says:

    @schrodingers_cat: for over a year I have been calling them Make Anerica White Again

  122. 122
    SFAW says:

    @Starfish:

    What do you see in mayoral races?

    I don’t. It’s not as if I have a ton of time to drill down to local levels. I just look at what has happened since 2008 or 2010, and compare the pre-election poll-based predictions with the actual outcomes. Feingold, Nunn, Grimes, were all looking pretty good until either the results came out, or Rethugs returned to the fold in the last 1-2 weeks before the election. Sam Brownback, Rick Scott, Pat Roberts, Paul LePage (fuck Eliot Cutler, by the way) were all dead meat — until they suddenly weren’t.

    Some here think I’m just a doomsayer — it’s understandable. And I would LOVE! to be proved wrong, and maybe the “collateral damage” from Lying Littledick’s evil will turn things around. But unfortunately, far too many of the electorate are fucking morons for me to be confident. Some of the specials have given me more hope, however.

  123. 123
    Peale says:

    @SFAW: Yep. When reading polls, its best to remember that a good portion of GOP voters lie about who they are going to vote for when talking with pollsters when the candidate is an embarrassment to propriety. Voters, say, know Roy Moore is a religious nut house and they won’t support him publicly. That’s good for a 3-5% Moore pick up. Democratic voters, on the other hand, lie through their teeth about whether they are eligible to vote or plan on voting. It makes it appear that more democrats will show up than actually will, since a good 5% of our respondents to polls couldn’t find their local election board website to register if you typed in http://www.localelectionboard. and all they needed to do was add “gov” to the end of it in their browser. Roy is probably up by 15-20%.

  124. 124
    SFAW says:

    @Peale:

    You’re not helping, you know.

    Kidding, of course, but it is a bit depressing.

  125. 125
    SgrAstar says:

    @Chet: Rubio????? The mango moran squashed little marco in 2016 and he’d easily do it again. Rubio doesn’t have the brains or the balls to challenge trump. My 2 cents.

  126. 126
    WaterGirl says:

    @Barbara: I completely agree with you. Even my retirement papers from the University were daunting for me and I asked a friend to sit down with me and work through them together – even though at the time I was completely aware that if my friend had needed help with HER retirement papers, I would have been able to help her.

    When there is an emotional component to something, all bets are off, even for smart people.

  127. 127

    there have been many points when the moderates in the GOP could have reasonably bolted to create a third party – 2008, 2016 – but they never did and never will. they fear losing their seats to more rabid wingnuts – or to centrist Democrats – because people have been programmed to choose between the two major parties. There is also a problem of fundraising: the deepest pockets in the GOP are also the wingnuttiest ones: they will not back a moderate splinter group.

    instead, you see what we have currently: the moderates like Dent are declining to run again, leaving the likelihood of more extremist candidates taking their place on the Republican ticket and the Democrats struggling to find viable candidates to try and win centrist voters over.

  128. 128
    PIGL says:

    @Eric NNY: open worship of Morgoth? Ever increasing rate of living victims burned in sacrifice? Neglect to offer the first fruits to Eru? I mean, really, even the pits of hell are only so deep.

  129. 129
    boatboy_srq says:

    @PIGL: Every time I say that I see the Teahad has dug just that little bit deeper. Be careful what you wish for.

  130. 130
    TenguPhule says:

    @PIGL:

    I mean, really, even the pits of hell are only so deep.

    Republicans: Hold our fucking beer!

  131. 131
    Kathleen says:

    @sharl: Just what the world needs. A stenography exercise from the MagGle Gaggle.

  132. 132
    SFAW says:

    @PIGL:

    open worship of Morgoth?

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing.

  133. 133
    LosGatosCA says:

    @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:

    More injuries you may mean. These people are already brain damaged.

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