Irma’s die is set

Be smart, be safe. If you are in south Florida, the window to start running north will be shutting down by day break

Open thread

125 replies
  1. 1
    TenguPhule says:

    At least there’s no earthquakes on that side of Mexico.

    So far.

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  2. 2
    eclare says:

    Have no idea why my friend in Miami in a high rise on the waterfront refuses to leave.

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  3. 3
    WaterGirl says:

    @eclare: The mind baffles.

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  4. 4
    jeffreyw says:

    Betty needs to see this:
    Rooster Burritos?

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  5. 5
    eclare says:

    @WaterGirl: I know, and in the meantime, he is putting his family through hell. Think about someone else, jackass.

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  6. 6
    eclare says:

    @jeffreyw: Saw that, loved it. Betty and chickens, be safe!

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  7. 7

    Stay safe, folks. I want regular updates! Especially if it involves Betty and a car full of chickens!

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  8. 8
    WaterGirl says:

    @jeffreyw: That is simultaneously hilarious and useful! Betty really does need to see that, but I think they would have to go in a crate otherwise they would be easy picking for the pups.

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  9. 9
    trollhattan says:

    It couldn’t be on a worse path if it tried. Fingers and toes crossed for y’all.

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  10. 10
    Bex says:

    Limbaugh got out yesterday. Said it would be “legally impossible” to broadcast today. What a __________. Fill in the blank.

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  11. 11
    CaseyL says:

    My Mom is sheltering in place in her condo – battened down and provisioned up – but she’s a few miles west of Federal Highway, and (fingers crossed) the storm surge won’t get that far.

    A friend I’ve known for more than 40 years is also sheltering in place – but she is in the evacuation zone, and I’m very worried for her.

    Both decided not to evacuate because they didn’t want to deal with the logistical nightmare, the sitting for 12 hours or more in traffic going nowhere while the storm bears down on them. (Especially now that the storm will apparently cover the entire state.)

    I do wonder how many people will see this storm season as the new normal, and devote some serious thought to relocating from the tropical coasts.

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  12. 12
    TaMara (HFG) says:

    Just talked with my brother and they are all set. Depending on the final call, they will either ride it out or go inland to a friend’s house. It all depends on an east or west trajectory as it heads up the state.

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  13. 13
    WaterGirl says:

    @eclare: Maybe too scared? If all the options are scary, and they can’t decide between them, I can see someone just staying put. But if it’s not that, yeah, what you said.

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  14. 14
    Aardvark Cheeselog says:

    South Florida has totally jammed the roads for a couple of days now. The time to get out was Tuesday.

    My brother was going to leave but wouldn’t make a plan, and by yesterday there wasn’t a room within a day’s drive. So he’s staying now too.

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  15. 15
    TenguPhule says:

    @eclare:

    Have no idea why my friend in Miami in a high rise on the waterfront refuses to leave.

    Insanity or stupidity.

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  16. 16
    WaterGirl says:

    @CaseyL: The photos of all the flooded highways in Texas is not something that is easily forgotten.

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  17. 17
    TaMara (HFG) says:

    Looks like the Hemingway cats are being looked after.

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  18. 18
    TenguPhule says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I want regular updates! Especially if it involves Betty and a car full of chickens!

    Wasn’t one story of poop bad enough?

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  19. 19
    TenguPhule says:

    @Aardvark Cheeselog:

    The time to get out was Tuesday.

    This. Highways of cars out of gas is….not optimal.

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  20. 20
    eclare says:

    @TenguPhule: Both. Thinks he has it handled, and it is no biggie. My thought is that, if he survives, it will turn into Lord of the Flies for food and water shortly. Aggravated by no power. My two cents.

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  21. 21
    WaterGirl says:

    All these stories about people sheltering in place in evacuation areas have me worried.

    Stay safe all you BJ jackals that we know and love. Family and friends, too. Including the lurkers that we don’t know, but we could!

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  22. 22
  23. 23
    SatanicPanic says:

    @eclare: I am going to continue to think that a highrise isn’t going to get blown over, no matter what a certain doofus here suggested yesterday. I’m not saying it’ll be fun, but I can’t imagine your friend can’t find a spot inside that won’t be safe.

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  24. 24
    comrade scotts agenda of rage says:

    @TaMara (HFG):

    The WaPo had a piece on this from the perspective of the Director (she’s 72) a couple of days ago:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/home-to-hemingway-and-lazy-days-key-west-girds-for-hurricane-irmas-wrath/?utm_term=.2fb06eca7172

    A bit more detail:
    http://www.chron.com/news/nati.....180112.php

    And finally Muriel Hemingway is asking them to leave:
    http://www.mercurynews.com/201.....ts-and-go/

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  25. 25
    TenguPhule says:

    Why Kim Jong-Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first

    Well that’s completely horrifying.

    Although it will reshape geopolitics, there is no real threat of nuclear warfare, because Kim has no death wish. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says Americans should sleep well at night, and analysts argue that it would be tantamount to national suicide for Kim to use nuclear weapons against the United States. Kim is ruthlessly rational. If his purpose is to ensure his survival (how better to understand his quest for nukes?), why would he risk it by starting a conflict with Washington he can’t win? Surely it won’t come to war, let alone nuclear war.

    Yes, Kim is brutally rational. And that is precisely why he may have to use nuclear weapons, but not in a first strike against American cities. Kim’s nuclear arsenal exists to stop his enemies’ quest for regime change. If North Korea and the United States wind up shooting at each other, it might make sense for Kim to use nuclear weapons first in a way that increases his chances of survival. The basic idea is to use one set of nuclear devices first to stave off the conventional invasion, and hold in reserve longer range, more powerful devices that threaten the enemy’s cities to deter nuclear annihilation. It’s a doctrine called “asymmetric escalation,” employed by states that are conventionally weak.

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  26. 26
    eclare says:

    @WaterGirl: My friend is affluent, single, with no pets. And is putting his family (according to a mutual friend) through hell. May have to rethink the friendship.

    ETA> family is in north TX

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  27. 27
    TenguPhule says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    I am going to continue to think that a highrise isn’t going to get blown over, no matter what a certain doofus here suggested yesterday.

    Not blown over, perforated with a wide variety of unusual objects.

    And waterfront means water threat too.

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  28. 28
    Mnemosyne says:

    I know someone who’s a sheriff’s deputy in Collier County, so she’s stuck there for the duration. I think her ex has evacuated and taken their 9-year-old with him. Luckily, they co-parent reasonably well.

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  29. 29
    TenguPhule says:

    @eclare:

    My thought is that, if he survives, it will turn into Lord of the Flies for food and water shortly. Aggravated by no power.

    I do recall the “uninhabitable for weeks or months” part of that storm warning by the weather service.

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  30. 30
    Captain C says:

    @eclare: Perhaps something along these lines?

    I hope your friend pulls through OK.

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  31. 31
    eclare says:

    @TenguPhule: Me too.

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  32. 32
    JGabriel says:

    Is it just me, or does anyone else think that Irma’s approach to Florida looks just like a spinning buzzsaw aimed straight at America’s low-hanging flaccid ding-dong?

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  33. 33

    @TenguPhule: I figured you would enjoy a well-told bit of scatological humor.

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  34. 34
    Mnemosyne says:

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage:

    It’s a tricky situation, because it’s also a museum and they do have a professional responsibility to make sure that the collection is protected as much as possible. It sounds like they’re making good preparations and hopefully they’ll come through okay.

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  35. 35
    eclare says:

    @Captain C: Hahaha..love Kevin Bacon!

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  36. 36
    TenguPhule says:

    Another edition of everything Trump gets involved in turns to shit.

    CARACAS, Venezuela — Not far from Venezuela’s presidential palace, a group of civilians and soldiers clutched rifles in a recent military drill. Their mission: Block the street leading to the residence of President Nicolás Maduro in the event of an American invasion.

    After months of street unrest and growing international isolation, Maduro has found a new raison d’etre in President Trump’s threat last month to use military force in Venezuela. The exercises here were just one of a multitude of operations being orchestrated by the socialist government as it rallies a nation to arms.

    The effort here underscores the power of Trump’s words, even off-the-cuff comments that may hint more at his mercurial nature than actual U.S. policy. International affairs experts do not take Trump’s threat of military force seriously. Yet Maduro loyalists are leveraging it to try to unite a divided country.

    In recent weeks, pro-government broadcasts and social media posts have featured images of elderly women learning to shoot rifles and middle-aged men running military obstacle courses. Local fishermen have gathered in boats to practice repulsing a sea offensive by Los Yanquis. Nearly two weeks ago, the government encouraged citizens age 18 to 60 to sign up for pro-government militias.

    ETTTTS. (Everything Trump Touches Turns To Shit)

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  37. 37
    Shell says:

    Crap, it looks like Florida is simply Irma’s one-lane highway and she’s going straight up the middle.

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  38. 38
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    Almost, damn it

    Some in the community were excited at the prospect. Frank Cerabino of the Palm Beach Post optioned a “pay-per-view event”: “I’m guessing that even those Americans who can’t stomach Limbaugh’s show under normal circumstances would pay to listen to his Hurricane Irma live broadcast.”

    “The Irma/Limbaugh bout could be promoted as an epic battle between two mighty winds,” he wrote.

    But Rush sissied out.

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  39. 39
    SatanicPanic says:

    @TenguPhule: I specifically suggested somewhere like a movie room, which are almost always windowless for obvious reasons. What’s your doom and gloom, ridiculous scenario today? That flying objects are going to pierce through multiple concrete walls?

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  40. 40
    TenguPhule says:

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I figured you would enjoy a well-told bit of scatological humor.

    I’ve had to deal with nervous chicken poopers before. I would only wish it on my worst enemy. Betty doesn’t deserve that, especially not while driving.

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  41. 41

    @TenguPhule: Truly you are large and contain multitudes.

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  42. 42
    Shell says:

    @JGabriel: As Homer said, Its America’s wang!

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  43. 43
    JPL says:

    Has Betty from Dominica (lesser antilles) posted? She was south of where major damage occurred, but I assume still saw significant damage. Hope she is okay.

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  44. 44
    TenguPhule says:

    FU WP. Learn to recognize foreign countries.

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  45. 45

    Not blown over, perforated with a wide variety of unusual objects.

    @TenguPhule: I can put my fist through a piece of drywall. Not decent cardboard. You do have a point here.

    But God obviously loves stupid people (president for starters) so the guy will probably be fine, he won’t be at risk of drowning for starters, it’s the aftermath I’d be seriously worried about. There will be no power for at least a week under best-case scenarios, so no A/C. In a high-rise. In Florida. You might actually poach. Does he have access to water? Food? Because he’s not going to for at least a week.

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  46. 46
    SatanicPanic says:

    @The Moar You Know: Unless eclare is talking about something other than what we normally think of as a high-rise (over 4 stories), it is going to be build with concrete walls. I’ve never heard of anyone going stick-built over 4 stories, I am pretty sure it’s not structurally sound.

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  47. 47
    Shell says:

    CNN has interviewed a couple of people who, against all common sense, have decided to ‘ride it out.’ One was a bar owner, today it was some guy who lives on his boat in Miami Beach. His rationale? If the storm surge comes the boat will just float up on it. Genius! The reporter looked like he wanted to ask him if his will was made out.

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  48. 48
    HRA says:

    As Alain said – the mofo ad is back again.

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  49. 49

    @The Moar You Know: Yeah, in spite of the fact that the storm almost certainly won’t kill him, I can’t see any reason why staying and dealing with the aftermath would be less of a hassle than leaving for a week or whatever.

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  50. 50
    TenguPhule says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    What’s your doom and gloom, ridiculous scenario today?

    Windows are breached, water gets into the building. Multiple areas rendered uninhabitable, leaving only
    the inner rooms (the ones without windows) available to stay in.

    Building’s Electrical system gives up the ghost.

    No elevators.

    No running water. No working toilets.

    No AC.

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  51. 51
    Ceci n est pas mon nym says:

    @TaMara (HFG): My sister is saying the same thing, not moving till she knows if it’s going east or west. She’s due to get socked Sunday. I am worried.

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  52. 52
    TenguPhule says:

    @Shell:

    His rationale? If the storm surge comes the boat will just float up on it.

    Dude has a boat and has never heard of waves?

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  53. 53
    germy says:

    toles comic today features Hurricane Trump

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  54. 54
    SatanicPanic says:

    @TenguPhule: Congratulations you’ve moved into the realm of the plausible, unlike that nonsense you were saying yesterday. Notice how this fits with my saying he might end up miserable but he’s probably not going to die.

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  55. 55

    Hoping Ms. Cracker and all in Florida stay safe.

    Although I wouldn’t mind seeing my brother-in-law in Cape Coral get a good scare — he’s been telling family in New York that “these things always turn out to be nothing.” I wish there were a way for Irma to reduce him to tears without risking everyone else’s lives and property.

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  56. 56
    eclare says:

    @TenguPhule: Yep.

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  57. 57
    TenguPhule says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    Notice how this fits with my saying he might end up miserable but he’s probably not going to die.

    Presuming he stays away from the rooms with windows facing outside. From his actions so far this is still in doubt.

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  58. 58
    comrade scotts agenda of rage says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    When I read the WaPo piece I immediately said to myself “that would be me and my wife”. If we were responsible for something like that, particularly that we’re also cat rescue/foster nuts, we’d most likely die there if that’s what it took.

    Everybody’s gotta go sometime.

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  59. 59
    Phylllis says:

    Highway 301 Northbound here through Tinytown is bumper-to-bumper with GA & FLA cars. We have already canceled school Monday & I expect we’ll be out Tuesday as well. Maybe even more if we have folks sheltering at the elementary school.

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  60. 60
    TenguPhule says:

    @eclare: Florida has fire ants too, doesn’t it?

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  61. 61
    SatanicPanic says:

    @TenguPhule: you are one tedious person

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  62. 62
    ruemara says:

    @eclare: He might have to admit he was wrong and I really think some would die before they’d do that.

    I heard some DJT properties are in the path of Irma. May the blessed hand of Ororo Munroe guide Irma away from the innocent and onto such appropriate spaces.

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  63. 63
    Humboldtblue says:

    6-12 foot storm surge expected in Broward county and my BIL refuses to evacuate meaning the kids won’t leave which means my sister must stay.

    I’m a fucking hurt somebody

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  64. 64
    eclare says:

    @Humboldtblue: Oh I’m so sorry!

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  65. 65
    TenguPhule says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    you are one tedious person

    I’m not the one gambling with my life and life of my family with a fucking hurricane.

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  66. 66
    TomatoQueen says:

    @Bex: Bag o’ dicks.

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  67. 67
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @TenguPhule: And you claim to be the gloomy one – 180mph winds are enough to capsize a boat if the boat is broadside to it.

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  68. 68
    Incitatus for Senate says:

    A large-scale example of the power of the patriarchy. Even as a country we can’t resist the urge to put our wang in inappropriate things.

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  69. 69
    SatanicPanic says:

    @TenguPhule: Why don’t you tell that guy then instead of trying to get the last word when someone suggest you’re wrong?

    Oh nevermind, I’m pie-filtering you. Congratulations, you are my first.

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  70. 70
    catclub says:

    @CaseyL:

    and devote some serious thought to relocating from the tropical coasts.

    Insurance rates have made it so the only new houses being built on the Mississippi Gulf coast are self-insured – very rich people.
    If this storm hits the same way, I expect that to happen.

    ReplyReply
  71. 71

    @Humboldtblue: Unbelievable. What a selfish moron.

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  72. 72
    catclub says:

    @Humboldtblue:

    6-12 foot storm surge expected in Broward county

    Katrina storm surge was 34 FT. Not sure what the predicted surge was, but I suspect less than 34 ft.

    Note also that with surge, there are still waves on top!

    ReplyReply
  73. 73
    chopper says:

    @catclub:

    surge isn’t really as much a thing on the east coast of florida due to bathymetry. now, the gulf side, that’s different.

    ReplyReply
  74. 74
    TenguPhule says:

    Four Texas Republicans just voted against Harvey disaster aid

    Of course they did.

    While parts of Texas are still submerged from the historic flooding wrought by Hurricane Harvey, four members of Congress who represent the state voted against sending it billions in federal disaster aid.

    GOP Reps. Joe Barton, Jeb Hensarling, Sam Johnson and Mac Thornberry all voted “no” on a $15.25 billion aid package Friday that is on its way to Trump’s desk. Much of that money will boost federal emergency responders and help small businesses and homeowners rebuild. Some of it could go to victims of Hurricane Irma, which is barreling toward Florida this weekend.

    These lawmakers say they didn’t like what the Harvey aid was packaged with: a three-month lift of the debt ceiling to let the U.S. Treasury borrow more money and a short-term budget that basically extends last year’s budget for another three months. As usual in Washington, the hang-up sits at the nexus of money and making a political statement about money.

    The campaign ads should write themselves at this point.

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  75. 75
    Mike in DC says:

    I have about a dozen family and friends in FL, in Tampa and Melbourne. None of them are able to get out of the state, so most of them will be in shelters. My dad will ride it out at his home. He’s 5-10 miles from the beach, and there’s a barrier island and a river between. But he agreed to get to a shelter if it’s worse than expected.

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  76. 76
    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism says:

    @JGabriel: Earlier, when the track was more centered in the peninsula, i was calling it Florida’s catheter.

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  77. 77
    Another Scott says:

    @jeffreyw: Clever, if they don’t overheat.

    Hope Betty doesn’t need to do that to her dinosaurs.

    Fingers crossed for everyone in the way.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

    ReplyReply
  78. 78
    Annie says:

    @eclare:

    I think some people who are staying are being misled by prior experience with hurricanes. I grew up in Florida and went through three hurricanes. All turned out to be less awful than forecast. Based on that, if I still lived there (and given that I don’t drive) I might try to stay.

    Now I live in San Francisco, so all (!) I have to worry about is an earthquake.

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  79. 79
    Another Scott says:

    @Bex: “Blessing”?

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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  80. 80
    catclub says:

    @chopper: The Storm surge in Katrina went inland as much as ten miles. Not sure if FL is flatter than MISS gulf coast, but a 12ft surge and added waves is still huge – say its only 3 miles inland! ;)

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  81. 81
    chopper says:

    @catclub:

    it has to do with the shape of the seabed. in the gulf, it’s a gentler slope up, so the surge builds and piles up. on the eastish side of florida the seabed quickly drops, so the storm surge has the ability to flow back, so it isn’t nearly as bad. the waves on top of it, tho, are worse.

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  82. 82
    eclare says:

    @Annie: True, my friend and I tried to get him to leave for Matthew, and it turned out to be nothing where he is. This seems big and certain.

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  83. 83

    Reporting in to let you know that I’ve evacuated to relatively higher ground suburban Miami (Pinecrest) that is both above the storm surge level and in a house that is as secure as it can be; above and beyond code and with a generator. I brought enough of my own supplies to add to the larder and enough clothes and stuff for a week.

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  84. 84
    chopper says:

    still, even “ony” 15 feet of surge in a place where it’s 10 feet or less in elevation is a bad scene.

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  85. 85
    chopper says:

    @Mustang Bobby:

    good luck. hope the generator lasts, cause you may be without power for a long-ass time.

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  86. 86
    eclare says:

    @Mustang Bobby: So glad to hear! Stay safe! Thank you.

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  87. 87
    TaMara (HFG) says:

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: My brother said that if it’s just wind, they can ride it out – their house was hit by a tornado two years ago, so it’s all upgraded, but if it moves west at all, they are worried about storm surge. Their area is not under evacuation at the moment.

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  88. 88
    Another Scott says:

    @Aardvark Cheeselog: After sitting in traffic for about 5 hours on 9/11, compared to about 20 minutes on a normal day, it was clear to me that quick evacuation of any urban area was impossible. As you say, a week is about the minimum time to even consider.

    Without better hurricane models, with much greater lead time, evacuations aren’t practical with our existing infrastructure. Maybe with tens of thousands of buses and autotrains and so forth, but not via cars on the roads.

    And all of Donnie’s “rah-rah everyone is doing great!” stuff (with little or no mention about anything the federal government agencies (other than the military and Coast Guard) are doing and plan to do) isn’t helping except in his own empty orange head. Will we see pictures of him crying when Mar-a-lago is destroyed because something actually affects him? :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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  89. 89
    TenguPhule says:

    @Another Scott:

    Will we see pictures of him crying when Mar-a-lago is destroyed because something actually affects him? :-/

    Sadly no, because insurance fraud.

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  90. 90
    cain says:

    @TenguPhule:

    Sure, but he would lose all allies. Nobody will come to his aid and trade will utterly stop. More than that, they can send in spies and do an assasination attempt that would look like an internal affair.

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  91. 91
    cain says:

    @Shell:
    Why the fuck is CNN staying and where are they going to be when the Hurricane hits?

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  92. 92
    catclub says:

    @chopper: I just checked, the Katrina storm surge was only ONLY 28.2 ft, not 34ft.

    But it still did go inland 6-12 miles.

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  93. 93
    WaterGirl says:

    @Mustang Bobby: So glad to hear you have moved to a safer location.

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  94. 94
    satby says:

    @catclub: I knew someone that storm surge killed during Katrina, and their house was in the area people were told to evacuate to.

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  95. 95
    jayboat says:

    I’ve decided to head north for about a hundred miles or so from Clearwater- where projections are showing the storm reduced to cat 1 status or less. Plan to take surface roads or maybe hwy 19 but I think it will be as bad as the interstate. The rv is fully provisioned- 2 weeks worth of food, case of beer, 60 gallons of fresh water and about 450 miles worth of fuel. I’m doing this as much for peace of mind of loved ones as for myself as I mostly worry about flooding screwing up my return trip. Don’t know yet how I feel about the concept of dead cars blocking the damn roads. This will be hurricane number 11 for me. I lived on the beach in NC for 10 years in the nineties and went through 6 there, and then 4 in quick succession in sw Florida in 2004- during which I was wiped out by Charley in Punta Gorda- blew apart every house in my neighborhood, sunk my boat, etc etc. So, I am very familiar with the downsides of the aftermath. What they aren’t telling you is the psychological effect the stress has on the body- you feel completely exhausted from the minute you wake up. There’s more, but no use to talk about it now.

    Sending positive thoughts to everyone in the path of this beast.

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  96. 96
    Another Scott says:

    @jayboat: Wow. It sounds like you’ve done as much as you can. Good luck!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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  97. 97
    satby says:

    @jayboat: good luck and be safe!

    I’m a child of tornado alley, so I’ve only sheltered in place for two hurricanes: Rita and Thomas. Ironically, I was in the way of those two as a responder to the earlier disasters. You can’t really predict tornadoes, so that you know days in advance of a hurricane and don’t leave if it’s heading for you boggles me a bit.
    Edited to add: that means I’m glad that those who decide to leave did!

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  98. 98
    lurker dean says:

    @JPL: The other Betty checked in the other day and was okay. Hopefully that continues to be the case.
    https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/09/05/irma-time-to-be-smart/#comment-6543428

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  99. 99
    JPL says:

    @lurker dean: Thank you

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  100. 100
    geg6 says:

    @chopper:

    That is not what I saw reported. They were saying that there could be 15-20 foot storm surges in Miami and West Palm, depending on how the storm hits.

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  101. 101
    raven says:

    My friends were all the way to Gainesville from Ft Meyers 2 days ago and turned around. They just decided to bail the fuck out again.

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  102. 102
    catclub says:

    @satby: The death toll with Harvey was about 100. Katrina was over 1800 – almost all of them from drowning.

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  103. 103
    Interstadial says:

    @geg6: There could be a big storm surge in Biscayne Bay. This is because the bay is shallow, so the water can easily pile up in the bay as it’ll be under the northeast side of the hurricane as it comes ashore. Farther north the storm surge should be a lot less because the ocean bottom drops deep fairly fast as you move away from the shoreline.

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  104. 104
    trollhattan says:

    @TenguPhule:

    wouldn’t be irrational

    Now solely in possession of first place in Worst use of double-negative in twenty-first century.

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  105. 105
    Elie says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    Don’t you think it depends on how much glass is in the construction? Floor to ceiling glass windows would be extremely hazardous and the whole apartment would be extremely unsafe even away from them. Once they blew out, you would just get blown out. Maybe he plans to hunker down in the basement but I cannot imagine being comfortable on an upper floor in a highly glassed building.

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  106. 106
    geg6 says:

    @raven:

    OMG, they are nuts!

    Step-daughter, her husband and new baby made it to Charlottesville, VA early this morning from Bradenton/Anna Maria Island on the west coast. His mom lives there, so it was a good place to wait it out. I know step-SIL is just a ball of anxiety over his boats. He has a charter fishing company and has spent all week battening down the hatches on his boats and trying to tie them up as safely as he can. He’s a FL native and this storm even has him nervous. So glad I don’t have to worry about them now. The ones I’m worried about are all my friends in West Palm/Jensen Beach/Stuart. I have about a dozen friends who live in that area and none of them are leaving, with the exception of one who was able to get a flight and is now staying with my sister here in Western PA.

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  107. 107
    geg6 says:

    @Elie:

    If he goes into the basement, he risks drowning. More deaths happen by drowning than by the winds.

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  108. 108
    KithKanan says:

    @Elie: Advice I’ve read for buildings like that seems to be to shelter inside the concrete-walled stairwell where you should be safe from glass, wind, and water.

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  109. 109
    Elie says:

    @geg6:

    I hear you statistically. But then there is the flying shattered glass thing. Clearly, a glassy high rise is probably not the best place to be. I surely wouldn’t stay there

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  110. 110
    Emma says:

    Look, folk. Can we get realistic here? The state of Florida has asked over 800,000 people to bail. There are only two, count ’em, two ways to get out of South Florida. Those roads have been a nightmare since yesterday. It’s a freaking 8 hour drive to get out of the state, and guess what? gas is hard to find. So do you run the risk of running and getting stuck on the turnpike with Irma bowling up less than twenty miles on your left? Evacuations are now on for Georgia and the Carolinas. More people on the roads, less gas, fewer motel rooms, even if you have money to pay for them.

    Let’s talk shelters. Miami opened eight, only one pet-friendly. They are mostly in the gyms of local high schools. How many people do you think fit in them? So you leave your house, ride to the local shelter and it’s full. What do you do then? So people hunker down, protect their homes the best they can and try to ride it out.

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  111. 111
    Elie says:

    @KithKanan:

    Thank you… I think that makes sense….

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  112. 112
    Gravenstone says:

    @TaMara (HFG): Gotta ask the general question, if you’re in an area where the potential is high enough that you may have to evacuate, why not just evacuate? Because if you end up waiting until a definitive call can be made, the risk of it being too late to act then seems unacceptably high. Only possible defense I can see is to try and cut down on the total numbers on the evacuation routes.

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  113. 113
    EmbraceYourInnerCrone says:

    My aunt and uncle are leaving St Augustine tomorrow and going North, I wish they would leave sooner but he won’t. She has early onset Alzheimer’s and I think he is dreading taking her out of her familiar home setting for who knows how long. Their 2 grown sons and their families are staying in their homes in Jacksonville… My friend in Winter Springs plans to stay with her sister , also in Winter Springs. I don’t know what my work friends in the Tampa office plan to do but their office itself is only blocks from the Bay and I think they still have not called whether they will close the office Monday. I don’t know what my friends in Orlando are doing but they probably decided to stay put. Whenever I hear people talk like Irma being down graded to a 4 or 3 means it is then no big deal I want to smack them. Sandy sucked on ice, and wasn’t even an official hurricane by the time it hit. Go back and watch the youtube of storm surge flood the subways in lower Manhattan and go look at the photos of Staten Island and Far Rockaway after the storm. This thing is making me sick to my stomach.

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  114. 114
    chopper says:

    @geg6:

    it’ll pile up more in biscayne bay for sure. depends on how the storm comes up tho. either way, looks like miami is getting swiped by the dirty side.

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  115. 115
    chopper says:

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone:

    Whenever I hear people talk like Irma being down graded to a 4 or 3 means it is then no big deal I want to smack them.

    if we’re lucky and for some reason or another she stays a cat 4 or even weakens to a 3, that’s just wind; she’ll still carry her hefty surge with her. likewise, on saturday she’s going to travel over some pretty hot-ass water in the florida straits, and she might just reintensify to a cat 5.

    people in the hurricane-watching world have been worrying about this for years. it’s been so long since florida got hit a lot of people have gotten complacent and a lot of people have moved there and have had no experience with a major hurricane. lots of tough guys thinking it’s not a big deal.

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  116. 116
    satby says:

    @KithKanan: that’s where people go in high rises and office building here in tornados.

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  117. 117
    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio) says:

    @Gravenstone:
    Reasons people don’t evacuate completely:
    1) Money. Leaving costs money. Even if Jet Blue has $99 fares, that’s about $400 + tax for 4 people. Gas–already increased in price after Harvey. Lodging.
    2) Mobility–not everyone is fit and hale and easily moved from place to place.
    3) Responsibility to others–you might not be limited by 1 and 2, but those you love are, especially #2.
    4) Access to transportation/viable exit routes. The mayor didn’t evacuate Houston because they learned with Rita that specific evacuation & relocation was the only thing practical for a population that large; it really is hard to move a few million people around. What if you don’t have a car? Or a reliable car? The Florida peninsula is around 500 miles long. If you can only trust your car to get to and from work and the grocery store, what next?

    Those are good reasons. If you don’t have much money left after paying your rent, but will be paid Friday morning, you’re going to wait until Friday. If your car won’t make it, you’re stuck. If Grandma is bedfast and not up to the drive, you may kill her if you stick her in a car for 12-16+ hours.

    The only bad reason is “LALALALA I can’t hear you nothing bad can happen to me because reasons.” Some staying may be doing so for that reason; most of the others are covered by reasons 1-4. They aren’t blindly going into this. They know it sucks, but they are making the best of their limited options.

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  118. 118
    satby says:

    @satby: any higher, inner windowless room is a potential shelter. And then it’s best to hunker down in a corner, or the bathtub if it’s a bathroom, and if you can drag a mattress to cover over you, better yet. Lower is good in tornados only because they don’t have surges of water. Higher better in hurricanes, but only as high as you need to be to evade a surge.

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  119. 119
    NoraLenderbee says:

    @TenguPhule: When hurricane Sandy hit, the building my parents lived in was untouched. However, the building’s HVAC and electrical panel were destroyed, so there was no heat, light, gas, or water. For weeks. WTF is this guy thinking.

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  120. 120
    tjmn says:

    @Shell: Yes, and she will pick up the 7-10 split, too.

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  121. 121
    raven says:

    @geg6: They’d be nuts to stay.

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  122. 122
    Seth Owen says:

    @TenguPhule: I found that piece to be very unpersuasive. It sets up a straw man scenario of a massive US invasion which is completely unrealistic — and requires the US to shoot first. Well, sure, in that scenario ANY power with nukes will use them. Deterring an existential threat is why you have them. Does anyone think you can march on Moscow, Beijing, London, Paris, Washington, Islamabad or New Delhi without being nuked? Those days are over.

    Completely ignored is the scaremonger scenario of Kim waking up some morning in a bad mood and deciding to nuke Guam. That is still insane and just not going to happen.

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  123. 123
    Seth Owen says:

    @Another Scott: Oddly enough, my experience on 9/11 was rather different. It’s little remarked upon but the MBTA was truly heroic that day. They ran extra trains and subway and busses and basically evacuated the entire nonresident business workers within a couple of hours. I had gone in to visit my daughter at college. By the time I headed out shortly after noon South Station was virtually a ghost town.

    On the other hand, distances in Florida are daunting compared to Boston and I doubt the mass transit is adequate, so it’s not really the same. I think it depends a lot on the threat and the target area. Florida’s peculiar geography (and Houston, too) plus the massive size of the storms make evacuation difficult. Much different than avoiding a point target like a terrorist strike.

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  124. 124
    JGabriel says:

    @Shell, @Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: So not just me then. Whew, that’s a comfort.

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  125. 125
    leeleeFL says:

    @Bex: For Limbaugh, I have nothing but contempt. He is the slimiest piece of crap on the dung heap. Would not surprise me if some of his “Ditto Heads” died because of his bull pucky ( thanks, Rachel )

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