Paul Pillar is a former CIA analyst whose articles on current events are usually calm, measured, and logical. He brings his analytical skills to clarifying the issues. I highly recommend reading him regularly. I occasionally disagree with him, although I can’t recall a time when I thought he had something substantively wrong.
Nikki Haley’s speech to the American Enterprise Institute yesterday on the nuclear agreement with Iran produced a reaction from him the likes of which I’ve never seen.
Nikki Haley, whose foreign policy experience has consisted of these past few months as the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations, has assumed the role of chief public trasher of the JCPOA for the administration.
Laura Rozen, whom you should follow on Twitter, says that the State Department experts on the subject were not consulted for the speech. I’d like to know who wrote it. Stephen Miller seems like a candidate, with help from some think-tank people you may see me jousting with on Twitter. (Changed from Steve)
Haley remarks not informed by career State, am told. … Wonder, are she and Pence plotting? And for what? https://t.co/fO6yq72jU5
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) September 6, 2017
Pillar gives the background facts of the agreement while destroying Haley’s lies.
Haley lied when she said that the JCPOA “gave Iran what it wanted up-front, in exchange for temporary promises to deliver what we want.” The truth is that Iran had to fulfill most of its obligations first—including disposing of excess enriched uranium, disassembling enrichment cascades, gutting its heavy water reactor, and much else—before the agreement was fully implemented and Iran got even a whiff of additional sanctions relief. There is no correspondence between reality and Haley’s assertion that the agreement was a great deal for Iran but “what we get from the deal is much less clear.” What we get is a cementing closed (even literally, in the case of the disabling of a reactor that otherwise could have produced plutonium) of all possible pathways to an Iranian nuclear weapon. This isn’t just a promise; this is major, material, already implemented change.
As they say, read the whole thing. It’s short, to the point, and accurate.
Major Major Major Major
I think the neocons have been purged from my friend groups and internet followings but I’ll keep this on hand to forward just in case. Thanks, Cheryl!
burnspbesq
The Trump Administration’s walk-up music.
https://youtu.be/v6cn0mLJVZY
comrade scotts agenda of rage
How refreshing. Too bad none of the Villagers would ever use such wording when describing the Popular Vote Loser’s minions when they’ve opened their pie holes.
Betcha this guy isn’t on the rolodex call list for the network and cable teevee “news” shows.
Tom Levenson
The failed Bush II administration presided over the emergence, inter-alia, a nuclear-armed N. Korea, having trashed a previous Clinton effort. The Trump administration is doing its best to ensure the emergence of a nuclear armed Iran in its passion to destroy every vestige of the Obama presidency.
Republicans are the problem. More than a problem: a clear and present danger to the US and the world.
Major Major Major Major
@Tom Levenson: certainly one of the greatest threats to the world right now, if not the greatest.
wvng
It really is remarkable that the Trump crowd, and republicans generally, find that the only way to promote their policy positions is to lie.
Humboldtblue
And sadly, it won’t make on fucking iota of difference because the people who need to read it will happily ignore it.
schrodingers_cat
@Tom Levenson: As long as the prestige media continues to give cover to the worst of the Rs, things will be slow to change. Ds have two enemies in DC, the Beltway press and the Rs.
MaxUtil
Republicans seem intent on turning Iran into a version of North Korea, a hostile state with an active, advancing nuclear program that we have no good options to hinder or stop. The big difference being that Iran is actually a functional state, engaged in international affairs and with large influence on nations and regional issues that we care about. It’s like they are looking at the situation and trying to find the worst possible outcome.
Major Major Major Major
@MaxUtil:
Well, that’s just the natural result of any republican policy, I doubt it’s usually intentional.
MaxUtil
@Tom Levenson: I’ll only quibble to say that I don’t think Republican motivation is so strictly about undoing Obama’s work. I think there is a fundamental sense that the Iran agreement recognizes that Iran is a legitimate state that has interests that need to be respected and worked with. Given that Republicans’ deeply held foreign policy theorem is that “all must bend their knee to us” any agreement just deeply offends them regardless of who negotiated it. (But also, they just can’t stand that Obama did it…)
Cheryl Rofer
@Tom Levenson: This:
That is the conclusion I have kept coming to for the past decade or more. We have to turn this around. I don’t know how, but maybe people are starting to come to where they will do it.
MaxUtil
@Major Major Major Major: It’s a remarkably consistent underlying principle for Repub policy objectives.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Tom Levenson:
The Gilliard Doctrine is as applicable today as it was when outlined over 12 years ago:
http://stevegilliard.blogspot.com/2005/01/about-yesterday.html
Amir Khalid
@burnspbesq:
This one has a bit more venom to it.
efgoldman
@MaxUtil:
The entire national party? No. But Velveeta Voldemort has Obama fully enclosed in his brain, and he DOES want to undo anything that says “Obama” on it.
It’s not a policy question, it’s a butthurt revenge question.
bbleh
I always return to Trump’s Razor, as Josh Marshall calls it: this isn’t being done out of calculation or from deep principle; it’s being done because they’re stupid and flailing.
“Hate Obama” and “hate Iran” are sure-fire applause lines for the mouth-breathing base, and I think that’s about as far as any thinking goes. Otherwise they’re just floundering.
efgoldman
@bbleh:
Obsma really should have signed an executive order on the way out the door, forbidding anybody in the WH from drinking bleach and Drano.
MisterForkbeard
@Major Major Major Major: I get most of my interaction with these bozos either through family’s posts, or on the facebook comments on NPR posts.
Which means I’ve cut it down pretty severely, but it’s still there. :(
SatanicPanic
I’ve been saying that Trump isn’t as bad a president as GWB because his admin hasn’t lied us into a war yet. It looking more and more like his admin will.
EthylEster
Daniel Larison at AmCon mag had a good post on this yesterday.
He is a Paul Pillar fan also and likewise loathes Haley.
Major Major Major Major
@MisterForkbeard: well, nobody’s making you read the NPR Facebook comments. But yeah family can be trickier!
Spanky
@SatanicPanic: Remember, there were 8 months between Dubya’s inauguration and 9/11.
Just sayin’.
(Five days until THAT anniversary.)
Gator90
Please call him “Stephen Miller” not “Steve Miller.” Steve Miller wrote some good songs and, as far as I know, is not a creepy bigoted weirdo.
Captain C
@efgoldman: Heck, he should have given a nationally televised address on that subject.
Another Scott
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: But, but, but, if she’s too stupid to know what the truth is when it comes to Iran, is it really a lie? That’s such a harsh word… /FTFNYT Stenographer
Grr…
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
There is no reason, there is no thought involved in any of this. If Donald and Darling Nikki don’t get their way, they will lie, yell, scream, and stomp their widdle feet.
Fuck both of them. With rusty, unlubed chainsaws.
SatanicPanic
@Spanky: On the bright side, I don’t see Trump’s approval rating going to 90% if something similar happens.
Tilda Swintons Bald Cap
@schrodingers_cat: Don’t forget Bernie.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott: that sounds more like something that would come from a fact-checker. “Hillary Clinton said that Donald Trump was a liar when he said that all black people have murdered someone, but since he’s so stupid and bigoted he actually believes it to be true, we’re giving her a ‘pants on fire’.”
Major Major Major Major
@Tilda Swintons Bald Cap: three enemies: the press, the republicans, and themselves. Four enemies: the press, the republicans, themselves, and holier than thou leftists. And an almost fanatical devotion to math. Five enemies…
efgoldman
@Tilda Swintons Bald Cap:
Too late. I already have.
MisterForkbeard
@Major Major Major Major: The NPR comments are usually because I tend to comment about how awful NPR’s headline writing is. “Trump says X, which critics says may not be correct” as opposed to “Trump lies about X”, for example.
Then I get pulled in. :P
As for family, the really tricky part are the in-laws or in-laws of my cousins who are still BernieBros and convinced that the Democratic Party is hopelessly corrupt and HRC/DNC stole the primary and thus it’s perfectly understandable why she’s the worst candidate in history. And therefore it’s your fault if you voted for her.
I don’t want to just yell at them. I don’t even want to shut them down with facts, since doing so would probably get my cousins pissed at me for stirring up family trouble. But on the other hand, it’s the worst kind of self-congratulatory nonsense dressed up in moral righteousness and ethical scolding. And then minimizes the very real things the Republicans and Russians did to screw up the election.
Amir Khalid
@MaxUtil:
Old-school imperialism, in other words. In the old days it worked well for the various big powers even if (sometimes especially if) it sucked really hard for everyone else. Nowadays it doesn’t even work all that well for The Last Superpower Still Standing, not even with its vast military superiority over the rest of the planet. It doesn’t help to win the shooting-match part of a conflict if you haven’t made progress towards your goal. Convincing Iran and North Korea that they’re much safer without nuclear weapons is clearly not something you can do with threats of war, let alone with actual war.
But with these Republicans, it’s not about rational calculation, is it? It’s all about talking tough and cowing the other guy. It seems to be the only acceptable way for them, even when the results are the opposite of what they would want.
Another Scott
@Tom Levenson: They are together in the Axis of Evil, you know.
It’s the same thing now. The lies that Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld and all the rest don’t matter. Just like Revelations, this is The Way It Is and they will continue beating that dead horse, and risking millions of lives, to make sure that their view of the world persists.
Just wait for Donnie and his minions argue that we have to invade the DRPK because they used VX to kill Kim’s brother. We have no choice!!11 They’re threatening us!!11ONE
:-/
Thanks for your posts here, and elsewhere, fighting the insanity of the world.
Cheers,
Scott.
MisterForkbeard
@Major Major Major Major: We really did see stuff like this during the election, didn’t we? “Because we can’t definitely ascertain exactly what thoughts were going through Trump’s mind when he said this thing that was blatantly wrong, it’s not a lie. Who can know what was in his heart?”
Cheryl Rofer
Here’s another article on NIkki Haley’s speech, from a former British Ambassador to the US. He is more optimistic about Iran than I am, but his reaction is an indicator for how Brits and other Europeans might see this.
Stan
@bbleh:
Normally I’d agree; I think trump’s razor is right 99% of the time.
But, there is some strategy here. Wars drive poll numbers up. Trump loves him some polls. This is setting the stage for an aggressive war against Iran.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@bbleh:
Never underestimate the power of malignant incompence.
Major Major Major Major
@Stan: trump doesn’t have the attention span to start a war.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Query – from a nuclear gaming scenario, would it not be in Russia’s best interests to engage in a counterforce strike against the US the moment it recognizes that Kim has launced a countervalue strike on the US mainland?
Major Major Major Major
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: do we not still have that mutually assuredly destructiony thing going on?
raven
@Stan: If you are going to prosecute a war it may as well be aggressive.
Amir Khalid
@Cheryl Rofer:
It’s disturbing that one of Peter Jenkins’ experience reckons Iran is more trustworthy than America, but his argument is hard to refute.
JMG
The problem with a war with Iran is fundamental. We’d lose. It’s be an endless nightmare like Afghanistan but times one billion. A war would not drive Trump’s poll numbers up, it’d eviscerate them.
Cheryl Rofer
@Major Major Major Major:
I think there is a lot to this, and it helps to calm me when I start to spin up. Nor does he have a brain trust of people like Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz who could put the preparations into movement and get him to sign the appropriate papers. Mattis, McMaster, and Kelly seem to understand that another war would not be a good thing, although there is a certain amount of Iran-hate among the three.
Incompetence may yet save us.
Another Scott
@Major Major Major Major: Neither did Franz Ferd Carl Lud Joe Mary, but that didn’t keep a bad one from happening…
“Whew, we dodged a bullet back there, didn’t we, Sophie?!!?”
:-/
There are lots of flaming chainsaws and babies and priceless artifacts being juggled around the world right now. It wouldn’t take too many mistakes and miscalculations to cause a very, very bad situation.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheryl Rofer
@Amir Khalid: Yeah, that’s one of the ways I disagree with him. His analysis is usually good, but slanted toward a worse America and a better Iran than I see.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott: trump could certainly be involved in starting a war, but I meant that he doesn’t have the attention span to do another Iraq-style proactive war.
ETA: I’ve also always thought the whole Ferdinand/Princip story is completely insane, lol
Yutsano
@Stan:
DING DING DING DING DING! We have a winnah!
Dolt45 has seen how wars drive up poll numbers. And he is so desperate for any kind of win that if he can gain some kind of victory here then he’ll bask in the glory of the warmongers.
But the US would be completely alone here. Not even our erstwhile “allies” Saudi Arabia would support us. And JPCOA is a six party agreement.
Captain C
@Cheryl Rofer:
While true, given Powell’s pre-Iraq War speech, sadly, there is a precedent.
TenguPhule
Nikki Haley is an insult to cheap whores.
Cermet
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: If this is a serious question, either you know so little about reality you might as well be a tRump supporter; so first off, anyone who believe’s north korea would ever strike the US with a nuke unless under attack by us is either so deeply suckered by neocons that their ability to think is gone or they have lived in a bubble. Next, for russia to end the world because we retaliate against a nuclear attack by a tiny power of no importance to them has got to be on drugs …no other explanation.
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major:
Trump doesn’t need an attention span to start a war with Iran.
All he has to do is keep doing what he’s already doing now.
lgerard
@Captain C:
trump has already stated he wants to find Iran in violation of the agreement and when Tillerson wouldn’t give him cover, he found someone else. I think this is less about military action, and more about keeping Iran as a punching bag to rile up the base.
In other news, Stephen Miller has already risen to the top of my People I want to punch in the face list, elbowing aside Newt Gingrich despite the 100 pound weight differential.
efgoldman
@Cermet:
Nice, well-reasoned retort.
Don’t be an asshole. Oh wait, too late.
Laura
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: He was the very best. When I’m in charge, there will be an award; not unlike the Pulitzer Prize; for excellence in online critical writing and it will be in honor of Steve Gilliard. Like Oscar, it will be referred to as a Gilly.
What Steve would make of these times, especially in light of the open reemergence of the KKK and white supremecy and Nazis and his deep understanding of history. Damn, we could use some Steve Gilliard right about now.
Thanks for the reminder of a ggod, fine man gone too soon.
gene108
The focus is too narrow. Every Republican has trashed the Iran deal. Every single one.
This problem of lying isn’t specific to Haley but the entire Republican Party.
This needs to be mentioned more and more. Policy wise there’s no difference between Trump and any other Republican, other than most Republicans don’t view NATO as a dues paying organization, so if countries aren’t beefing up their military they should be kicked out.
raven
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major:
No attention span to pay attention once the initial fireworks go off, I will give you that.
But starting a clusterfuck? He’s got no equal there.
Major Major Major Major
@lgerard: the top! Such an honor.
TenguPhule
@raven:
3 months is lukewarm dog vomit, pardon my French.
That just bumps the problem right after Christmas when Congress comes back from YET ANOTHER fucking vacation. And that assumes nothing else goes horribly fucking wrong in the span in between.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule: see Cheryl’s reply to my initial comment for details on my thoughts.
@TenguPhule: three months is better than no months.
You seem upset today.
Amir Khalid
@Cheryl Rofer:
We all still remember Colin Powell telling tall tales, forced upon him by the George Walker Bush administration, at the UN about Iraq ahead of the American invasion. Jenkins is saying that the US, through Nikki Haley, is now telling tall tales about Iran not acting in good faith. America (or the Trump administration, at least) seems to be headed down the path to war again. As far as I can see, Iran is not doing that, and I haven’t seen anyone else claim that it is. So in this one instance, Jenkins might have a case.
ruckus
@SatanicPanic:
It isn’t even so much that they will lie us into a war. It’s that they will stupid us into a war. And it won’t be an easy or friendly war. They are so locked into their ignorant outlook that they just might get a whole lot of us dead trying to prove how stupid they and their idiotic views are.
efgoldman
@Major Major Major Major:
“Today”?
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major:
Physical pain, lots of it.
Pulled muscles in neck, arms and legs.
Major Major Major Major
@efgoldman: more so than normal.
@TenguPhule: sorry to hear that.
TenguPhule
@ruckus:
Wars never are.
Frankensteinbeck
@Yutsano:
Or maybe he’s an angry bigot who hates Muslims, thinks they’re evil, and only comprehends bullying – which he enjoys – as a power dynamic. The simplest and stupidest (Trump’s Razor) explanation is that Trump wanta to invade Iran, like he wants a second scoop of ice cream.
jl
Off topic, but heard news report that WH and DOJ guidance on DACA kids is that they are coming for them in 6 months. Their advice: “get your shit together because we are coming to kick you out”. I’ve been wondering what the point of no return is for refusing any possibility of cooperation with Trump and his Trumpsters on anything at all. Seems to me this is it. This is WH and its DOJ just bragging that they are getting ready to commit human rights crimes. Chilling.
Trump, or… Kelly, actually, since seems like he is the only one who knows what to do) has to get this fixed in six months, or they all need to packed up and sent to The Hague.
Some commenters yesterday were questioning whether good to cooperate with apparent Trump (er… actually, probably Kelly) willingness to get out of the jam he created. My concern is that having Trump as a temporary, nominal, ally in getting a Congressional fix will actually be a fatal obstacle that cannot be overcome. The evil might not be unstoppable, the incompetence may be. The goofs have been all over the map. They want a fix to DACA to be a permanent fix. So they want it to be part of comprehensive immigration reform? No, wait, Trump is using it as a gambit to get him some Mexico Wall money (an issue he admitted he really cares nothing about, it’s just read meat for his base)..
Jesus…help us.
Edit: I’m writing my Congress critters today about it and I think everyone should.
TenguPhule
@Amir Khalid:
Sorry, this myth needs to be stamped out. Nobody forced that traitorous fucker Powell to lie. He had free will and fucking damned himself with both eyes wide open.
Cheryl Rofer
@Amir Khalid: Can’t argue with that. One of the things that drives me crazy is that so far this week Trump has managed to make Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and the Iranian government look like statesmen. It’s part of the continuing “not normal.” We have to keep reminding ourselves of that.
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m working on the optimism thing.
Stupid insane Wars just happen to be one of those things I really have an aversion to. Iraq II did a lot of damage and we’re still suffering fallout from it even now.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
This week?
trollhattan
@SatanicPanic:
If you check parallel time lines Trump seems ahead of Dubya at this point in their respective administrations. Check back Monday for more on that.
Villago Delenda Est
@Amir Khalid: The only thing that matters to them is domestic political impact…specifically on their drooling base.
schrodingers_cat
@jl: DACA repeal has Kelly’s blessings, look at his tenure at the DHS.
germy
@Cheryl Rofer:
I saw campaign commercials during the last election season that repeated the same lies. These were local races. “[name] supported Obama’s terrible Iran deal that gave nuclear weapons to terrorists” etc.
With a graphic of [name] photoshopped next to Pelosi and Obama.
efgoldman
@TenguPhule:
And if he didn’t want to lie, he could have resigned. Darth Cheney could have found someone to carry the party lien.
TenguPhule
@schrodingers_cat:
You don’t even have to go back that far. That this whole shitfest is happening now shows it has his tact approval.
trollhattan
@Yutsano:
Q: How do you simultaneously make Israel, Saudi Arabia and Sheldon Adelson happy?
A: Bomb Iran!
Unclear on how Vlad fits into the narrative.
raven
@TenguPhule: I report, you decide.
TenguPhule
@efgoldman:
Every time that walking corpse speaks on television is a continuing stain on our national honor.
trollhattan
@TenguPhule:
Is Kelly the new Ivanka in the media’s eyes? (i.e., Sane person who can totally turn Trump around on his crazy shit.) Because I see him having the same effect as she: nuttin’.
MisterForkbeard
@raven: I mean, it’s better than not getting a debt ceiling increase. But this is such a weird and stupid move: It’s Trump playing brinksman with his own party over the debt limit. Same thing with DACA – he’s throwing everything over to them because he doesn’t want to take a real position on anything.
MisterForkbeard
@jl: This despite the “DACA people will not be priority targets after it expires” talk from Trump’s people yesterday. Sigh.
Just remember, any time these guys have the choice to do anything awful, that’s what the they do. They literally choose to cause the most pain and suffering they can.
@trollhattan: Kelly appears to have some benefits around the edges. Like apparently keeping Sheriff Clarke out of the White House.
He just can’t do anything really important, like keep Trump sane. And he’s not inclined to do anything nice towards immigrants and has a hard-on towards Iran.
jl
@schrodingers_cat:
” DACA repeal has Kelly’s blessings, look at his tenure at the DHS.”
Well, OK, that is a detail. Whatever. News report said that Kelly intervened to keep Sessions from immediate repeal and immediate commencement of crimes against humanity, and Kelly did what Trump should have done months ago if he was even a half wit, call Congress to start working on a deal. but maybe Kelly is doing some weird head fake. Doesn’t really matter. Trump is there to screw it all up anyway.
The important part is to contact Congress and, now that I think about it, governors, to tell them mass expulsion of DACA kids cannot happen and they must do absolutely everything to stop it. File so damn many lawsuits that the criminals in the WH won’t have time to do anything but read through them until Jan 2018. Something, anything.
TenguPhule
@trollhattan:
Yes.
They ran fluff about “turning things around!” and “adults finally back in charge!”
Then Trump backed the Nazis.
trollhattan
@TenguPhule:
Speaking of stains on the nation, Kenneth Starr’s Baylor University, everybody!
TenguPhule
@trollhattan:
They actually tried this argument in a court of law? The fucking balls.
SFAW
@MaxUtil:
That’s probably part of it. The other part is the Dominionists (or whoever) saying “Shit! The Second Coming is supposed to be triggered by a war in the Middle East! We can’t let NKorea do it, that would fuck everything up! Better do something to get things back on track.”
The fucked-up thing is: if I had written that three years ago, people would have thought I was as around-the-bend as Alex Jones. But these days?
[Note: No, I don’t really believe the Dominionists in Lying Littledick’s Maladministration are actually thinking that, but having to write this disclaimer just demonstrates how fucked up things are. Or, I should say, how fucked up the Rethugs are, from top-to-bottomus.]
Cheryl Rofer
@TenguPhule: I wanted to be able to keep the list short, so I specified this week.
Amir Khalid
@TenguPhule:
You’re right, it was craven of Powell to recite the George Walker Bush administration’s tall tales at the UN. He was commanded to justify a war with lies, and an honourable soldier would have resigned rather than obey. But those lies were indeed forced upon Powell, by the President’s command, and Powell’s complicity doesn’t change that.
trollhattan
This week in American right wing terrorism.
Why is the president afraid to say the words “radical Christian terrorism”?
Cheryl Rofer
@germy: Yeah, there is a cottage industry of ginning up this stuff in a few think tanks. If you follow me on Twitter, you will see me jousting with some of their denizens occasionally.
schrodingers_cat
@jl: Kelly’s plan is to get Democrats to throw legal immigration under the bus and get money for the wall in return for DACA reprieve. This is what passes for “moderate” in T circles.
ETA: The good general wants to use DACA as a bargaining chip.
SFAW
@trollhattan:
The only responsibility I want that fuckwad to accept is the responsibility to plead guilty to whatever is the worst charge they can come up with vis-a-vis his dereliction of duty at Baylor.
TenguPhule
Trump: ‘No second thoughts’ on DACA decision
As if the stupid fuckwad even bothered to think about it at all.
Chet Murthy
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Putin can’t spend ill-gotten gains if the world is a radioactive cinder. Like the Iranians, like Kim, he’sfundamentally rational. Unlike Dampnut.
TenguPhule
Paul Ryan’s promises are not worth a bucket of warm spit.
Sleepless nights of terror it is.
jl
@schrodingers_cat: @TenguPhule:
Thanks for reminding me about the plan to crack down on legal immigration too. That angle was in the report too, but not connected to Kelly. So, that is his angle?
Fine.
I think we need a multi pronged attack to deal with this looming disaster. Play along with their goofy schemes and see if we can roll them. But also prepare for all out smash face political and legal warfare, of maneuver, WWI trench, or whatever is necessary. I’m writing congress critters and Jerry about it today.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
I immediately pictured you in full plate armor, on a white horse with an actual lance.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule: well, IANAL, but is it not true?
Tokyokie
@Stan: Except that waging a war against Iran would be a cluster-fuck that would make the Iraq hostilities look as well organized as the Normandy Invasion by comparison. For starters, what would the U.S. use as a staging area? Majority Shi’a Iraq? Not a chance. Kuwait? Its population is about 40% Shi’a, and it wouldn’t go along either. Qatar? Trump stupidly took the side of the corrupt leadership in Riyadh to back Saudi hegemony on the southern rim of the Persian Gulf, and I’m guessing the Qataris will kick out the U.S. naval base when it would cause the most damage to U.S. interests. Saudi Arabia? They already kicked us out once. The U.A.E.? They’ll fall in line with the Saudis and provide little material support. Afghanistan? Pakistan? Really? Armenia? Generally allied with Tehran. Which leaves us with Azerbaijan, which essentially only allowed U.S. use of its airspace during the unpleasantness in Iraq. Maybe we could bribe them enough to play along, but I doubt they’d take a much greater role in invading the giant on its southern border, which will still be there long after the Americans leave.
And then there’s the matter of Iran itself. It has a population of about 80 million, largest in the Middle East (if one restricts the Middle East to the nations of western Asia), half of it under the age of 35. That’s a lot of folks who are the age for military service. And in recent years, Iran and its regional allies (i.e., Hezbollah) have proven to be the region’s most able fighters. Or has a Sunni Muslim group succeeded in repulsing an Israeli military offensive and I missed it somehow? Also, Iran is lot better armed than Iraq was, possessing in its military hardware the latest in anti-ship cruise missiles. If the U.S. doesn’t have a nearby ally whose territory can be used for resupply, then such work will have to be performed amphibiously. But just look at a map of the Middle East. I doubt there’s a point in the entire Persian Gulf Iran cannot reach with its anti-ship missiles, and Iran can absolutely control the Strait of Hormuz. Any U.S. Navy ship that transits the strait would be in grave danger. Is slapping some ayatollahs’ faces with our dicks worth losing a couple of carrier groups? Probably so, if you’re a Trump administration official whose family members won’t be paying the price.
And the real tragedy for me, is that of all the players in the Middle East, the one with which the U.S. should most be seeking rapprochement is Iran. (As far as supporters of state-sponsored terrorism go, I am hard-pressed to recall a single act of Shi’a terrorism that was committed outside the Middle East, unlike our erstwhile allies in the Sunni Arab world.) Iran is a democratic country, even if not a form to which the West subscribes, and as an increasingly smaller percentage of the population was born after the shah’s abdication, the power of the ayatollahs has been gradually ebbing. But the surest way to give them widespread popular support is for the U.S. to attack Iran militarily. Picking a fight with these guys isn’t just stupid, it’s catastrophically stupid.
TenguPhule
@jl:
The problem is that we’ve got multiple looming disasters and most of them are in Congress’s hands at the moment.
1. Debt Ceiling
2. Spending Bills.
3. Federal Programs reauthorization
4. Hurricane Relief/FEMA funding
5. DACA
6. Iran Agreement
7. NAFTA
And those are just the ones off the top of my head, I know I’m missing more.
trollhattan
@TenguPhule: @SFAW:
Cherry atop this turd cupcake is that DeVos is rumored as prepared to rescind the Obama Administration directive to universities on how to handle sexual assault. Could happen as soon as tonight.
Is everyone in this administration a monster? [asked rhetorically ]
Captain C
@trollhattan:
It divides the US from pretty much everyone, very likely causes severe damage to US military capabilities*, and jacks the price of oil up a bleepload.
*In order to defeat Iran in short order, one would need at minimum the active cooperation (and probably logistical support) of Saudi, Kuwait, and Iraq, and probably Pakistan and Afghanistan; and probably at least a million top-line ground troops with corresponding armor plus several hundred (if not over a thousand) fighters and bombers in theater (these are rough guesses on my part), and even then the damage to the world economy would be severe, and that’s before you get into the massive human suffering that would happen in Iran. In other words, it’s a terribly difficult proposition and a shitty idea under the best of circumstances, and pretty much impossible under current realities, even if you don’t care about what happens to Iranian civilians.
TenguPhule
@Tokyokie:
Amen.
jl
@TenguPhule: We need to prioritize. Popular pressure needs to concentrate on issues where it has most leverage. I think for popular pressure, it is DACA.
You got a plan for the other issues, let’s hear it.
Weaselone
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
No. Russia’s best interest is to stand back and laugh as major US cities sprout mushroom clouds and we get reduced to a 2nd tier economy overnight. Why would Putin engage in an attack that would result in a devastating counterstrike against Russia?
Captain C
@Captain C: Also what Tokyokie said in greater detail above.
TenguPhule
@Captain C:
Pipe dream. Iranian assets outside of their country would have their pick of targets. They’ve spent decades preparing for an attack from the outside and know how to put the hurt on anyone stupid enough to stick their dicks into the mulcher.
A million combat troops would roughly be at one to one ratio with the Iranians current active army and reserve. The terrain is bad for bombing support and they’ve got enough anti-air missiles that suppression is just not gonna happen. And that doesn’t even begin to touch on what happens if the Gulf waters become a free fire zone.
Captain C
@TenguPhule:
My point exactly.
TenguPhule
@jl:
I did prioritize. Those rankings were in terms of how urgent they are. DACA isn’t even in the top 3 because as bad as the shit Trump pulled on it, its not something that would literally crash the economy with accompanying fallout right away if nothing is done immediately.
There’s not much we can do at this point, putting pressure on Congress is just about all that can be done because its all legislative work that needs to be done. Most of the votes are already locked in, the only waverers left are Rs.
So it comes down to math and procedural rules, not sexy but it is what it is.
catclub
@MaxUtil:
Israel and Russia excepted.
Timurid
Just look at a map. Topographically, Iran is basically a warmer version of Alaska. Fighting a land war there would be… awkward.
jl
@TenguPhule: some one is going to be able get the public interested in 1. Debt Ceiling, 2. Spending Bills, 3. Federal Programs reauthorization before they see the shit hit the fan? Good luck to you.
Another Scott
@Captain C: You’re right about what it would take, but you forget that Curtis LeMay and Bomber Harris showed that the USA and the UK can bend any nation to our will by air power alone.
Look at how B-52s made Ho back down!!
Look at how Syria straightened up after Donnie’s ~ $100M cruise missile attack on Syria in April worked out!!!
At least, that’s probably what they believe… :-/
I assume that if Donnie and Haley and Mattis and all the rest decide to start a war with Iran then they will try to do it all from the air. (As Adam has pointed out on many occasions) We don’t have the troops. And we won’t have the staging areas. And even if it’s only from the air, it will be ungodly expensive, and ineffective in forcing Iran to do what they want, and kill and maim thousands, and strengthen those who oppose US policies (even sensible ones), and all the rest.
I’d like to think that there are enough trip-wires to keep us from going that far, but we can’t depend on our institutions to protect us without fighting for them…
Cheers,
Scott.
Tokyokie
@TenguPhule: Also, my guess, based on Iran’s use of small, fast patrol boats in the Persian Gulf, is that Iran’s defensive military strategy is a combination of conventional and asymmetrical tactics, and I don’t think that bodes well for a cumbersome, technology-dependent foreign invader. I suspect that many of the top U.S. military leaders share similar concerns, but when a narcissistic moron is ultimately calling the shots, it doesn’t matter; the top brass will pick the best of several doomed strategies.
Tokyokie
@Another Scott: I’ve long been of the opinion that the Air Force has been wildly exaggerated its capabilities for at least 50 years and that it should be rolled back into the Army, as was the case during World War II. Had Army generals had their say, the A-10 Warthog, the best close support plane ever devised, would never have been decommissioned because, basically, the hot-shot pilots didn’t think it was worthy of their skills.
Captain C
@Another Scott:
That’s right. They rendered Normandy and Operation Bagration superfluous and unnecessary.
@Tokyokie: I recall reading somewhere that Iran will know that shit is going down when the U.S. Navy withdraws from the Persian Gulf. Of course, with the Orange Moron in the White House, he may well order the Navy to stay in their target practice positions while they launch completely inadequate strikes.
Kathleen
@Laura: I don’t think he would be a bit surprised. I would love to have his take on all of this. What a unique, powerful voice he had.
ruemara
@SatanicPanic: I don’t quite understand how you could’ve been saying that, since the man has been lusting after using nuclear weapons and announcing a belligerent, fact-free foreign policy since he decided to run. He wasn’t going to lie us into an agreed upon war, he was always going to drag us into one or three or however many he could start, even if he just up and nuked a spot at random.
@MisterForkbeard: Then you lose nothing by shutting them down with facts, because they are doing the devil’s work in dividing the resistance away from the only national party with the infrastructure to win seats and change this. Which means fuck them, from this person who would directly be affected and is affected by this administration. Why so much eggshell walking when they are dealing in obvious untruths and blind, damage deal ignorance?
Tokyokie
@Captain C: But if the U.S. cannot compel one of Iran’s neighbors into having its territory used for a cross-border ground invasion (and I doubt any of them will go along with the current administration under the current circumstances), then an invasion will have to be seaborne, which will necessitate locating a frightful number of Navy ships in the Persian Gulf. Sure would help to have Qatar’s help in all this, but hey, the Saudis let der Trumpenführer fondle the orb, so the Houses of Saudi and Trump are BFF now.
jonas
@Tom Levenson: Yeah, but if countries like Iran and N. Korea don’t have nuclear weapons, then you can’t fap to a US president strutting around, vowing to rain “fire and fury” down on them, which is the whole point of foreign policy for Republicans. You see the bind they’re in.
Gravenstone
@Major Major Major Major: Yeah, we have more than enough nukes to destroy Russia (or China, or Luxembourg, or …) in addition to NK should someone get a wild hair to piggyback on little Kim’s bad idea.
TenguPhule
@Another Scott:
And if Iran couldn’t hit the planes in the air, it would be open season on Trump, his family and Congress and their families by Iranian assassins. Which would of course be perfectly legal under the rules of war.
TenguPhule
@jl:
DACA is a moral imperative. Stopping a debt default and keeping the lights on is a survival imperative.
Captain C
@Tokyokie:
Agreed. There’s no chance any will go along with it.
I suspect we don’t have nearly enough ships in the Navy to do such an invasion (IIRC, the Normandy invasion, with massive logistical bases on a relatively secure platform, that is, the UK, took several thousand ships (“How many allied ships commander?? ” “ALL OF THEM!!!”) and was staged at a time when the U.S. military had a fair amount of immediate and recent experience in doing beach landings under hostile fire.
I am…impressed…at how thoroughly Trump attacks people and institutions that he absolutely needs to be his allies. Cf. the Intelligence Community, the EU, NATO, Mitch McConnell…
sukabi
@Another Scott: some how “too stupid to be a liar” doesn’t inspire much confidence, now does it? Their reasoning for that defense might be to try and eliminate the malice associated with lying. Too bad that the “journalists” who make this argument for the “too stupid” don’t realize that they then bear the malice they’ve removed from the “too stupid”.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@burnspbesq: I saw the Thompson Twins 34 years ago, today. They opened for The Police at Hollywood Park.
ruckus
@TenguPhule:
You are right.
There are bad wars and far worse wars.
Given who/what we are discussing, this will run on the far worse side.
ruckus
@Tokyokie:
So nothing’s really changed all that much over the last decade or so, and republicans have not only learned nothing, they have gotten far more stupid. IOW they are doubling down..
Bill Arnold
Having read the P. Pillar piece (nicely done evisceration, that would work better if the people involved had any viscera to start with), I’d now bet that none of the people involved in writing or delivering that address have actually READ the JCPOA (including the annexes).
Was having a hard time disliking Nicky Halley until now. Lazy, easily refuted lying because Fox (et al) has her back, now that’s just wrong.
Sad. Thanks everyone for the other links.
@EthylEster:
Thanks for the mention of that AmCon Larison piece. Here’s the link for anyone who’s interested:
Iran Hawks Try Moving the Goalposts on the Nuclear Deal
Cheryl Rofer
@Bill Arnold: Good point.
I’d now bet that none of the people involved in writing or delivering that address have actually READ the JCPOA (including the annexes).
As I’ve listened to Haley, it has seemed to me that she has never read it.
J R in WV
@Tom Levenson:
Yes, it isn’t just Trump, it’s the whole Republican Party, destined to end the world by being so wrong about so many important issues!!
cwmoss
@wvng: As Daniel Davies has said, good ideas do not need lots of lies told about them in order to gain public acceptance.
J R in WV
@schrodingers_cat:
While you and I agree often, here I need to correct you:
Hope I don’t offend with this minor fix!
ETA speling
J R in WV
@Major Major Major Major:
Yes, Mutually Assured Destruction is very much the operational strategy keeping the world from exploding at the moment. It is why Russia won’t launch an attack the moment DPRK launches multiple attacks at the continental US.
Iran is a whole other nut though. I’m not at all sure our military can run through Iranian defenses the way we drove into Iraq. After all, Iraq was right next door and couldn’t enter Iran.
We would be half way around the world trying to attack a nation with considerably more resources than Iraq ever had. And they might have special weapons much sooner than we would expect, from allies next door in Pakistan. Half a dozen would shatter our fleets and obliterate our Army and Marines.