https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg 0 0 David Anderson https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg David Anderson2017-06-26 07:14:172017-06-26 07:14:17Reading the BCRA CBO Score
The Congressional Budget Office is due to release their score on the Senate’s BCRA bill at some point today. Here are a few things to remember as you read the score.
- Look at the effects at 10 years and beyond
- The bill is designed to push the Medicaid cut backs to the right hand side of the budget window and then accelerate those cuts compared to the AHCA.
- Senator Murphy (D-CT) has asked and received assurance that the CBO will score coverage losses past 10 years
- I think that topline coverage losses will be a bit less from Medicaid in window but match AHCA within two years out of window
- Is the 6 month auto-denial period being scored?
- This is the Senate Republican replacement of the individual mandate
- It was not written into the bill released on Thursday
- If CBO scores it how do they score it against both the individual mandate and the 30% single year premium bump. The CBO thinks the individual mandate is reasonably effective at keeping healthier people in the pool while the 30% premium bump is an adverse selection magnet.
- What are they projecting with the 1332 waivers on steroids
- Current law places strong guidelines on approval of state waivers. States must meet or beat default ACA on coverage, actuarial value, benefits and cost.
- Senate BCRA only requires a 1332 waiver to beat default coverage on federal cost.
- These make the MacArthur/Upton amendments simple modeling exercises
- How do they project market functionality in extreme 1332 states?