Steve got his spring shave:
He still weighs 25 lbs, but looks so tiny without all his hair. Look how big Lily looks next to him!
This post is in: Cat Blogging
Steve got his spring shave:
He still weighs 25 lbs, but looks so tiny without all his hair. Look how big Lily looks next to him!
by Adam L Silverman| 95 Comments
This post is in: America, Ammosexuals, Domestic Politics, Gun nuts, Organizing & Resistance, Silverman on Security, Not Normal
Pennsylvania State Police are reporting that Steve Stephens, wanted by the Cleveland Police Department for the murder, streamed live via Facebook, of 74 year old Robert Godwin, has killed himself after being spotted by law enforcement near Erie, Pennsylvania.
Steve Stephens was spotted this morning by PSP members in Erie County. After a brief pursuit, Stephens shot and killed himself.
— PA State Police (@PAStatePolice) April 18, 2017
Here is the latest statement from Cleveland Police Chief Williams regarding the case.
UPDATE on Steve Stephens case https://t.co/Yoc9KA8UF5
— Cleveland Police (@CLEpolice) April 18, 2017
by Betty Cracker| 139 Comments
This post is in: Election 2016, Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel, Assholes
This AP article doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know about the corrupt, trashy grift-maven family that is making fat stacks by peddling executive office influence, but it’s infuriating nonetheless:
SHANGHAI (AP) — On April 6, Ivanka Trump’s company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world’s second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
The scenario underscores how difficult it is for Trump, who has tried to distance herself from the brand that bears her name, to separate business from politics in her new position at the White House.
Difficult? Nope — impossible. If Ivanka Trump were able to overcome what must be a massive genetic predisposition to commit fraud, she’d shut down her “brand” and stay far away from the levers of power. But she’s done the opposite because she’s a crook, just like her scam artist father.
To address ethical concerns, Trump has shifted the brand’s assets to a family-run trust valued at more than $50 million and pledged to recuse herself from issues that present conflicts.
“Ivanka will not weigh in on business strategy, marketing issues, or the commercial terms of agreements,” her attorney, Jamie Gorelick, said in a statement. “She has retained authority to direct the trustees to terminate agreements that she determines create a conflict of interest or the appearance of one.”
Similar arrangements are in place for Mr. Ivanka and the elder Trump — who was elected by gibbering idiots supposedly fed up with corruption and getting shafted by “the man,” so we’re told. And we’re supposed to take the word of a family famous for perpetrating frauds that they are behaving ethically? It is to laugh.
China, however, remains a nagging concern. “Ivanka has so many China ties and conflicts, yet she and Jared appear deeply involved in China contacts and policy. I would never have allowed it,” said Norman Eisen, who served as chief White House ethics lawyer under Barack Obama. “For their own sake, and the country’s, Ivanka and Jared should consider stepping away from China matters.”
Instead, the first daughter and her husband have emerged as prominent interlocutors with China, where they have both had significant business ties. Last year, Kushner pursued hundreds of millions of dollars in real estate investments from Anbang Insurance Group, a financial conglomerate with close ties to the Chinese state. After media reports about the deal, talks were called off.
Mr. Eisen’s observations about how the Obama White House handled ethical snags seem quaint in the context of the Trumps’ global grift operation. And not to worry about Mr. Ivanka’s hundreds of millions of dollars in investments; I’m sure once the media dogs are off the scent, he’ll direct his brother to resume negotiations on the QT.
“You can’t separate Ivanka from her role in life and from her business,” said Allen Adamson, founder of BrandSimpleConsulting. “Her celebrity status is now not only being fueled by her wealth and her family connection, but by her huge role in the White House. All that buzz is hardwired to her products.” That, he added, is a competitive advantage other brands just can’t match — though it does come with risk.
The risk is negligible when you consider that it was perfectly obvious to anyone with the sentient capacity of a mollusk that this corrupt and trashy bunch would abuse the office for their own gain if elected. Scamming is what they do. We either let them get away with it or not, and so far, the Trumps have every reason to believe the scam is unfolding gloriously.
This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance
April 30th is roughly the date when insurers need to know what set of actuarial assumptions they need to use in order to build their filings. Those filings are due to the state and federal regulators for initial review by the end of June. After the initial filings, networks and benefits are stable but rates will change. Insurers can pull plans but they can not add plans. Insurers need to make a final decision as to what they are going to offer and where by the middle of September.
I have been hearing consistent indications that many insurers are considering doing a double-double filing. This will give them protection against any eventuality of the Cost Sharing Reduction subsidies getting pulled or any other Exchange uncertainty.
The first pair of filings will be based on two different set of actuarial assumptions. The first set is a business as usual set of assumptions where the rate increases will be fundamentally be driven by price and utilization changes. This would produce numerous rate increases of less than 10%. It would be a boring filing appealing to only actuaries and policy geeks.
The second variant of this filing is a worse case filing. It assumes that CSR subsidies will not be paid in 2018, CSR costs need to be built into the index rate for all metal bands, and there will be minimal enforcement of the mandate, minimal effective advertising and the risk pool will be small and unhealthy. This is fine from an insurer’s point of view. They can price an ugly market and make it profitable as long as they know in advance how ugly the market will be. Rate increases of 40% or 50% or more will be common with this filing as it will be the medical trend increase plus massive policy uncertainty increases.
This second filing has an odd distributional consequence. It will be really good for Bronze buyers on Exchange. The gap between a Bronze and the benchmark Silver will increase if they both see a 50% price increase. The gap will grow by 50% all else being equal. Bronze buyers on Exchange are likely to be higher income (200% to 400% Federal Poverty Level). They will see better deals. The people who are hurt are the non-subsidized buyers.
Off-Exchange plans are a set of all plans that are offered On-Exchange plus any other qualified health plans that carriers want to offer. There are carriers that offer both On and Off Exchange plans. There are carriers that offer only Off-Exchange plans. A single corporate entity can have subsidiaries that offer both as well as offering only Off-Exchange. Setting up a new corporate subsidiary with a new filing ID is fairly straightforward.
This is where the second split of filings could occur. Carriers that are filing pessimistic case scenario where the no-CSR price increase is incorporated into the base index rate that drives all pricing for all metal bands can create a separate filing ID for only the off-Exchange market. The corporate parent will file a pessimistic set of assumptions for the On-Exchange business. The new entity will only offer off-Exchange filings that are priced on only medical trend. This will lead to far less expensive off-Exchange plans as the new entity’s index rate is CSR free. The same corporate entity will offer off-Exchange low cost no-CSR plans and then high cost, CSR incorporated plans. This provides protection for off-Exchange buyers while giving the insurers protection against CSR.
This post is in: Election 2017, Open Threads, Sports, Daydream Believers
Great video—50 yrs after becoming 1st woman to officially run the Boston Marathon, Kathrine Switzer finishes again. pic.twitter.com/SR46bw8YUB
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) April 17, 2017
She’s seventy years old. (I couldn’t have finished a marathon when I was twenty!)
Georgia special election today, finally…
Georgia’s Special Election: What to Watch For https://t.co/l71JxP5e63
— Michael Tackett (@tackettdc) April 18, 2017
Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Oh, yeah, one less glibertarian in California…
The leader of the Calexit campaign, Louis Marinelli, just announced he's settling in Russia permanently & withdrawing his ballot petition. pic.twitter.com/zHwtUjcm5p
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) April 17, 2017
You tried to put this guy in a satirical novel, any decent editor would reject him as “entirely too broad.”
… Marinelli, who campaigned for Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders but said he ultimately voted for President Donald Trump, described Yes California as a progressive initiative aimed at establishing a “liberal republic” independent of the United States. But his decision to align Yes California so publicly with Russia alienated him from the other, albeit smaller, California separatist movement known as the California Nationalist Party…
He added that he hopes that “after the false allegations about me vanish, and after this period of anti-Russian hysteria subsides,” it will be “said of this campaign that we spoke the truth” and “set in motion a series of events that led California to independence from the United States.”…
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Things Do Improve, However SlowlyPost + Comments (206)
by Alain Chamot (1971-2020)| 37 Comments
This post is in: On The Road, Open Threads, Readership Capture
Good Morning All,
This weekday feature is for Balloon Juicers who are on the road, travelling, etc. and wish to share notes, links, pictures, stories, etc. from their escapades. As the US mainland begins the end of the Earth day as we measure it, many of us rise to read about our friends and their transient locales.
So, please, speak up and share some of your adventures, observations, and sights as you explore, no matter where you are. By concentrating travel updates here, it’s easier for all to keep up-to-date on the adventures of our fellow Commentariat. And it makes finding some travel tips or ideas from 6 months ago so much easier to find…
Have at ’em, and have a safe day of travels!
Should you have any pictures (tasteful, relevant, etc….) you can email them to [email protected] or just use this nifty link to start an email: Start an Email to send a Picture to Post on Balloon Juice
Without further ado, a full set from Mallorca, courtesy of OzarkHillbilly:
by Adam L Silverman| 187 Comments
This post is in: America, Election 2016, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Religion, Religious Nuts 2, Silverman on Security, Not Normal
Turkey held a referendum yesterday in regard to the structure of the Turkish government. On its face it was intended to modernize the 1980 constitution, which was drafted after the last military takeover to preserve the Kemalist system. The referendum involved constitutional reform that increases the power of the President of Turkey.
The plan turns Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic. Among the numerous changes:
- The role of prime minister will be scrapped. The new post of vice president, possibly two or three, will be created.
- The president becomes the head of the executive, as well as the head of state, and retains ties to a political party.
- He or she will be given sweeping new powers to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree.
- The president alone will be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament.
- Parliament will lose its right to scrutinise ministers or propose an enquiry. However, it will be able to begin impeachment proceedings or investigate the president with a majority vote by MPs. Putting the president on trial would require a two-thirds majority.
- The number of MPs will increase from 550 to 600.
- Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on the same day every five years. The president will be limited to two terms.
There appear to be a number of observed and reported irregularities in the voting and the tallying of the votes regarding the referendum.
@20committee https://t.co/aPzQaKg8Oq
— Tacia (@Tacia) April 16, 2017
ISTANBUL: Turkey’s two main opposition parties on Sunday said they would challenge the results putting the ‘Yes’ camp ahead in the referendum on expanding the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after alleged violations.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) said that whatever the final result, it would challenge two-thirds of the vote, saying: “There is an indication of a 3-4 percentage point manipulation of the vote.”
The deputy head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Bulent Tezcan, denounced “violations” by the election authorities in allowing ballot papers without an official stamp to be used.
Another CHP deputy head, Erdal Aksunger, said it could appeal up to 60 percent of the vote.
“Believe me, this election is not over,” he told CNN Turk, quoted by the Dogan news agency. “This is totally invalid. We are declaring this here.”
He said that the CHP was appealing 37 percent of the ballot box results, and this figure could eventually rise to 60 percent. “Since the morning, we have detected violations,” he said.
Turkish media said that CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was convening a special meeting of its executive board.
The EU had its monitors on site because Turkey still has an open application to join the European Union. Both the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) sent monitors.
… observers from the OSCE and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) said on April 17 that the legal framework for the referendum “remained inadequate for the holding of a genuinely democratic referendum.”
The monitors also said the referendum campaign was conducted on an “unlevel playing field” and that the counting of ballots in the April 16 referendum had been marred by “late procedural changes.”
President Erdogan responded by calling out the EU and its monitors:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan treated a crowd of supporters gathered outside his presidential palace on Monday evening to a speech laced with invective against Europe, saying his victory in a referendum on Sunday took place under conditions that were democratic beyond compare.
“We don’t care about the opinions of ‘Hans’ or ‘George,’” Erdogan said, using the names as stand-ins for his European critics. “All debates about the constitutional referendum are now over.”
This, unfortunately, fits with President Erdogan’s ongoing attempts to reorient Turkey away from an EU he perceives as perpetually dragging its feet regarding Turkish membership (he is not wrong) and from the EU’s attempts to restrict his power and his remaking of Turkish politics and society. Even more unfortunate was the President’s response to the outcome of the referendum.
BREAKING Presidential sources: US President Trump calls Turkish President Erdoğan to congratulate him on #Turkeyreferendum result. pic.twitter.com/4UtWsMPXyU
— CNN Türk ENG (@CNNTURK_ENG) April 17, 2017
I think that it is highly likely that despite what the EU monitors have observed and reported, and the challenges by Turkish opposition parties, that the outcome of the referendum will stand. This will significantly increase President Erdogan’s power, which he is eligible to wield all the way through the 2029 Turkish elections if repeatedly reelected. In many ways this referendum put the democratic process to work to achieve a very anti-democratic and authoritarian outcome, or at least an anti-democratic outcome that will allow Erdogan to become more authoritarian. In many ways it is the logical follow on from last summer’s abortive coup. Regardless, it is neither a positive outcome for Turkey, nor was the President’s response to this in his call to Erdogan a good thing.
(Full disclosure: One of my former students, from my first year assigned to USAWC, has been accused by the Erdogan government of participation in the failed coup. I was his front line supervisor/academic advisor and his research advisor/supervisor. I have been unable to reach him or his wife since the night the coup began. The last time I heard from him was in 2015 when I wrote a letter of reference for his application to a Belgian graduate program while he was assigned at NATO headquarters. He is an excellent officer, a true gentleman, and a loyal Turk.)
The Turkish Referendum: The US is Now on the Wrong Side of HistoryPost + Comments (187)