What happens when you take the “gloves off,” unlike that sissy boy Obama:
The U.S. military acknowledged for the first time Saturday that it launched an airstrike against the Islamic State last week in the densely packed Iraqi city of Mosul where residents say more than 100 people were killed.
“An initial review of strike data … indicates that, at the request of the Iraqi security forces, the Coalition struck ISIS fighters and equipment, March 17, in west Mosul at the location corresponding to allegations of civilian casualties,” the task force leading the coalition said in a statement.
Previously, the U.S.-led coalition had said that officials were unsure whether the United States had conducted air attacks targeting the affected site in Mosul al-Jadida where local officials say they have so far pulled at least 60 bodies from one destroyed building.
This is a disaster on so many levels. Hopefully Adam can discuss what is happening in Yemen, which is also being dialed up and will lead to more incidents like this.
Baud
Repeating my earlier comment.
I understand that argument with respect to drones used against terrorists, but I don’t know that it applies to the U.S. working with Iraqis to free Mosul from ISIS. I suppose the question turns on whether the people of Mosul consider that conflict a legitimate one.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
In the 5 figures, easily. I wish I could remember where I read that somebody on the ground reported the rules of engagement have relaxed since late January.
schrodingers_cat
My prediction is that T is going to start a hot war and it is going to be a bigger disaster than Iraq was.
ETA: There is a possibility that Rs decide not to go down with the Orange Hindenburg.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@schrodingers_cat: My hope is he won’t get a chance to do so. It looks like Trump-Russia is about to blow wide open:
I imagine Adam might have an evening post on the topic. All the twitter in crowd (natsec connections) have suggested this is the deal that’s in progress. Not that I’m obsessed or anything.
PsiFighter37
@schrodingers_cat: I’m not sure about that. I read an NYT article that highlighted Trump’s disdain for the details (not surprising) and that he was largely leaving existing policy in place and simply relying on what ‘the generals’ are telling him should be done. I would be curious as to how much of what did – and especially what did not – happen under Obama was modified by the administration (e.g. Obama, Biden, SecDef, etc.). That would give more insight, IMO, as to what we can expect to happen under Dear Leader.
The one thing we can be sure of is that Trump will take 100% credit for anything good that happens and 0% credit for anything bad. I do wonder how long ‘the generals’ will stay silent when he blames them for when things go sideways, like they did in the Yemen raid.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
So fucking much winning. I really am sick of all the winning. Can we go back to losing again?
zhena gogolia
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
As I said below, УУУ бля. There’s no other word for it.
martian
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Flynn may have flipped, but he’s a raging nutjob conspiracy theorist and liar, so what will he really give up? How is the wheat sorted from chaff, here? I wonder where his son is in this mess, too, and how that plays into Flynn’s motivations.
chopper
oy gefuckinvult.
Corner Stone
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Oh, my!
/Takei
I am completely aroused. Don’t act like you’re not impressed!
/Burgundy
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
I missed all that below, obviously.
Corner Stone
@zhena gogolia: That’s it. I am reporting you.
zhena gogolia
@Corner Stone:
For what?
Corner Stone
@martian:
Any deal will not include immunity if shit is about little green men from Mars.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@martian: There are folks who believe he can give up a lot, all the way up and down the chain, based on all his meetings. At least those on twitter who’ve followed all this carefully.
I had LTG Flynn in the Flip First pool, based on my tweetstudy, and I think Adam did as well.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
The attack was at the behest of the Iraqi Security Force? It was also, presumably, based on ISF Intel? This may be semantic from the perspectives of those who lost loved ones, and FSM knows I’m not trying to provide cover for Trump, but is this the same as if the US military researched and ordered the strike?
Starfish
Twitter is saying that Flynn and Nunes were at that January meeting with the Turkish person.
martian
@Corner Stone: There are apparently cells within the FBI where anything involving little green men is totes believable, actionable info if only those little green men are named Clinton.
Corner Stone
@martian: You expect me to believe a fucking martian? What do I look like ? A voter for the Leopards Eating My Face Party?
martian
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: I believe he could lay it all bare, I’m just not sure he’s done dancing.
debit
@Starfish: I feel like I’m in a dream, a wonderful dream where the corruption and incompetence of the GOP is finally rubbed in the faces of its voters like a pee and shit beslimed paper towel.
Villago Delenda Est
@martian: “Mulder, what’s up?”
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@debit:
Problem is, 27% minimum will say, “Thank you, sir, may I have another?”
tobie
@West of the Rockies (been a while): We were discussing this issue in the thread on Pizzagate. The Washington Post article suggests that there has been an increase in aerial bombing since Trump took office. Money quote:
Jeffro
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: I saw the news here and there and figured I better get back to Balloon Juice quick!
We just keep having these exciting weeks don’t we America? So much winning!!!
Jay Noble
@West of the Rockies (been a while): This is at least the 2nd or 3rd time I recall we’ve bombed something on the word of allies only to have it be maybe perhaps someone using us to settle an old score.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Anyone have a link on this Flynn flip business?
martian
@Corner Stone: @Corner Stone: Hath not a Martian hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions; fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer as an Earthling is? If you prick us, do we not bleed green ichor?
No, none of that, actually, but at the rate you loser Earthlings are fouling up your planet, you’d best be making with the nice nice, son. Martians are hardliners on immigration.
chris
@zhena gogolia:
Translate says “UUU shit.” A little help here for the linguistically challenged?
Mary G
I’ve been reading Daniel Larison on Yemen for two or three years now and it’s a fucking shitshow. Some Shias got into power and Saudi Arabia couldn’t have that, not on the Arab peninsula, and some prince with more money, time, and sense started a war, allegedly against Al Qeada, but really just to play with all the cool planes and other toys America has given them over the years. They’ve bombed the living shit out of the whole country, including civilian targets they promised not to, and blockaded the one port that brings stuff in, resulting in a famine of unimaginable proportions. Some of the pictures of starving children are horrific. Just skin on bones.
America has been fueling all the Saudi planes, plus “help” with targeting. Obama tried to dial it back, and Chris Murphy of Connecticut filed a bill to stop providing shit and help, with which Yertle the Turtle did what you would imagine.
Trump has let the American special forces go to town playing kill the terrorists, as in that first mission that went so wrong. McCain and Graham are cheerleading from their safe perches, saying it’s important to keep some strait open that’s miles to the north of Yemen as excuse.
This will come back to haunt us in so many ways, and it’s awful and no one has paid any attention because all the aid groups and Doctors without Borders had to leave because the Saudis had blown so many of them up.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@tobie:
Thanks, Tobie… I think I bailed on that thread after it (IIRC) got hijacked by a Bernie bro.
p.a.
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Jay Noble:
Ah, so we should go our own damn intel it appears. Better be sure when lobbing massive bombs around.
martian
@Villago Delenda Est: Damnit, Fox, for the last time, I’ve never met your sister. Do all us Greenies just look alike to you? Try the Greys.
sharl
There is some potentially relevant stuff in this twitter exchange as well as this awful, gruesome Guardian piece (linked in that twitter exchange). From the Guardian piece:
The question asked by the tweeters is whether battlefield commanders might have let situational urgency trump the official policy (Rules of Engagement), thus maybe leading to putting civilians at greater risk; just speculation, no conclusive information as of yet.
sukabi
@Starfish: was it the kidnapping meeting?
Mary G
@Mary G: Link to Larison for overview on the second anniversary of the war: The Enduring Shame of Two Years of U.S. Support for the War on Yemen:
p.a.
Vegas odds Flynn found floating in the Reflecting Pool?
p.a.
@Mary G: They can’t leave or Saudi looks like a pitiful helpless midweight…
GregB
@tobie:
It must be fake news.
I was assured by libertarians and and others that Trump was anti war and would not be at all like the worst blood thirsty tyrant in the world Hillary Clinton.
Villago Delenda Est
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Currently all over Twitter. The current thread at Wonkette (about sandwiches) has links to tweets, just scroll down a tad.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Well… I just googled ‘Flynn’ + ‘flip’ and came up w/ this…
I don’t know how reliable this guy is but here’s what he has to say… it’s not about what jester googled but it is about the possibility of Flynn making a deal…
So I’ll go ahead and make my case for why I think Michael Flynn has already cut a deal with the FBI against Donald Trump.
TriassicSands
@martian:
Can you imagine a jury that had to come to a verdict based on whom they believed Trump or Flynn. Heads would explode.
Bill Arnold
@sharl:
(edit beaten to first link by Thru the Looking Glass…)
I saw speculation yesterday (March 24) here: I think Michael Flynn has already cut a deal with the FBI against Donald Trump.
Here’s a typical report from today (I know nothing about the inquisitr.com):
Donald Trump Impeachment: Michael Flynn Flipped On Trump, Working With FBI
sukabi
@West of the Rockies (been a while): pretty sure this explains the national enquirer cover this week proclaiming trump caught the Russian mole, ie Flynn…
bupalos
@GregB: Don’t worry Greg. I assure you, He is not like her.
Bill Arnold
@sukabi:
Saw that today at the supermarket, first and instant reaction was that it must be some sort of damage control by a close Trump ally.
GregB
@bupalos:
He really seems so nice and upstanding, I knew it wasn’t true. Then again, you won’t catch me walking down 5th Avenue in New York anytime soon.
Re: Fynn. I also think the story being floated by Woolsey is about destroying Flynn even more so that he has not credibility.
Thru the Looking Glass...
Another ‘source’…
Juliette Kayyem talking on CNN…
(Using Trump marks on source because I don’t know who Juliette Kayyem is or how good her info is… this is just what I come up w/ when I go looking)
GregB
@Thru the Looking Glass…:
Kayyem is some sort of terror analyst, professional. I think she was going to run for Governor of Mass. at one point. I think she may have worked for GW or Clinton. Her credentials and reputation are good as far as I an recall. Certainly not a known conspiracy monger.
martian
@TriassicSands: First I would have to imagine Trump before a jury, and that’s a bit beyond me right now. How would it happen? And imagine just picking the jury…
efgoldman
@Thru the Looking Glass…:
Without a deal, he’s exposing himself to a double whammy: prosecution in federal criminal court, with the possibility of real jail time, and also being recalled to active duty, being court martialed, busted down in rank, and losing part or all of his pension.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Thank you, all link providers! Catching up now.
Immanentize
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: I was looking for you yesterday to be obsessed about this together. I think the Manafort/Stone/Page offers to testify in the House are efforts to get a testimonial immunity deal there. Any thoughts?
bupalos
What about pelosi for president?
She’s awesome. She’s sharp. She’s unflappable. She can go off the cuff, which honestly might be the most important characteristic for a candidate these days. She’d be 79. That would be all anyone would talk about. I actually think that might be a positive.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Immanentize:
Can a House committee guarantee immunity?
martian
Serious question, but is our military leadership a bunch of stupid fucking cowboys whose collars Obama had to keep a firm hand on, or what? All this “loosening the rules of engagement” that everybody appeared to be so eager to do makes it look like the lessons learned in Iraq were all the wrong ones. Or is this just another edition of “everything Trump touches turns to shit” with the military leadership taking the fall?
Thru the Looking Glass...
@efgoldman: It does look like Flynn is in a real hole here, which apparently is why all the smart kids in class think he’s the one who’s cutting a deal w/ the FBI… to save his own Cheney…
The reasoning, as far as I can tell, is that since Manafort, Page, and Stone have all agreed to testify in front of Congress and Flynn is NOT testifying at this point, perhaps that means the FBI has asked Flynn to keep quiet… the logic makes sense and it’s also a bit sketchy…
Yeah… Flynn looks like he’s about to start eating a bigger shit sandwich than Ryan got served yesterday and so it makes sense he’d be cutting a deal… but silence is hardly proof… we’ll have to wait and see what all of this actually means…
Also… when you get around and read what Kayyem, Palmer, & Jester are saying, it gets a bit circular… they’re all referencing each other as their source… kind of…
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@West of the Rockies (been a while):
They aren’t a prosecutor agency, are they? They can investigate and censure, but they can’t bring charges.
debbie
@Immanentize:
I was surprised they were all willing to testify publicly. It’s going to be a real race to see who can be the first to rat everyone else out.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@debbie: Prisoner’s Dilemma…
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Try twitter: Rick Wilson @theRickWilson, Malcolm Nance said it on today’s AMJoy (@MalcolmNance) John Schindler ([that asshole] @20comittee) the Jester as I quoted, and most have a link to CNN panel where somebody explained her view of why. There’s also a report that Nunes was in a Flynn meeting with Turkish folks. It could get very interesting, to say the least.
Manafort needs to get a deal to stay in the US, because he’s in real danger abroad, to understate his situation. Sessions has real US issues, as does Carter Page and there are also reports that Pence had lots of involvement with Manafort as well as LTG Flynn.
Immanentize
@West of the Rockies (been a while): a House committee can grant immunity regarding perjury for things said in the hearing. They don’t have prosecutorial immunity powers because that is the executives thing. But testimonial immunity often really messes up or precludes any actual prosecution — especially if is based on words like conspiratorial agreements. That is how Ollie North got his conviction overturned in the Iran/Contra scandal. Usually, Congress will not grant any immunity for testimony without DOJ approval. You see where this is going?
dogwood
@bupalos:
Have you ever watched Pelosi speak? At times it’s painful. Nancy knows what she’s good at, and it’s not ever gonna be running for president.
Roger Moore
@martian:
Documents, dates, times, specific individuals, and similar hard details that can be further investigated and confirmed or refuted. He doesn’t have to give enough details to get Trump; he only has to give the investigators a leg up on flipping the next guy.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
What’s that quaint colloquialism you Americans have… ‘shitting bricks’?
Given that Putin does seem to play hardball, I think it’s safe to say that Mr. Manafort is indeed shitting bricks right now…
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Roger Moore:
This right here…
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Immanentize:
Which is why Flynn is being so quiet, per the FBI’s request?
Roger Moore
@TriassicSands:
Not guilty. There’s no way you could meet a burden of reasonable doubt even if they weren’t contradicting each other.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Immanentize:
Ah, yes. DOJ = Sessions.
sukabi
@Thru the Looking Glass…: and given that none of those playing Russian roülette have 007 skills, but may have an iq of 007 finding the connections probably won’t be that hard.
Baud
@West of the Rockies (been a while): He recused himself.
Thru the Looking Glass...
WaPo editorial about Manafort from yesterday…
(does link to WaPo…)
efgoldman
@Immanentize:
I suggested that as a plausibility late last nite. However, they are not “testifying” (under oath) they have merely asked to “speak” to the committee. They can lie their asses off, and probably will.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@efgoldman:
Especially w/ Nunes running interference for them?
efgoldman
@West of the Rockies (been a while):
Why not? A senate committee can. That’s what got hero Ollie North’s felony conviction overturned on appeal.
It’s a way to compel testimony.
schrodingers_cat
@dogwood: He is being sarcastic.
Immanentize
@Thru the Looking Glass…: I am sure, if he is being considered for any kind of deal, keeping his damn yap shut is requirement one.
Deals are not handshakes, they are very serious contracts including the specific information — ALL OF IT — that you have in your possession regarding the criminals acts being investigated. The target and his lawyer write out a very detaile profer. The US Attorney reviews it against all information they have, public and secret. And if anything is missing, they come back and fucking hurt you with a worse deal, promises to indict family members (remember, Flynn Jr. is is this up to his eyeballs), civil forfeiture of all your assets. Everything. It is a hard mprocess to be involved in.
And just a point — the FBI has no power to offer deals, only the US Attorney and in a case like this, any deal for testimony would require approval from the AG or his office. It is so messy in this case.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Baud:
I’m not by nature a nefarious person… all this subterfuge and dealing and such is leaving me befuddled. I’ll just read along for now and stop posing dead-end observations. Good thing I’m not a political journalist!
zhena gogolia
@chris:
It’s kind of like “Fuckin A.”
efgoldman
@martian:
Doesn’t Occam have any relatives on Mars?
raven
@Immanentize: George Halas and Mr Wrigley shook hands on the deal for the Bears to use Wrigley Field that lasted for 50 years.
Immanentize
@Baud: Baud, Sessions was very slippery about his recusal saying he would recuse as to any matters regarding collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Does this fit into that small box? Someone should ask him….
artem1s
real question is how many refugees is this going to create and how will it affect the elections in Germany and France.
BTW, where the hell are Mattis and McMaster? I thought they were military geniuses that were gonna keep Twittler from getting us into a quagmire? Looks like they are drunk with bombing brown people back to the stone age just like Cheney and Rumsfeld.
efgoldman
@West of the Rockies (been a while):
They can bring perjury charges.
And like anything else a potential defendant says, any non-immunized testimony they give can be used against them – and against anybody they throw under the semi trailer.
Immanentize
@efgoldman: now that is where it would be better to be under oath and have a deal. If they lie, and perjured themselves, only Congress can request prosecution (by DOJ) for the perjury. Nunes would never. Neat trick, huh?
Chris T.
As the woman on Maher’s show said yesterday, when Trumpistas say “America First”, what they don’t realize is that they’re repeating a Russian war slogan:
America First!
(Then France or Canada, and then the world!)
Immanentize
@raven: mmmm. Juicy Fruit.
Mike in NC
Trump and his henchmen will get thousands of innocent people killed. Families will be offered choice Trump Steaks as compensation.
efgoldman
@raven:
Neither of them was in danger of going to the sneezer if he backed out. Not the same thing.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Immanentize:
Well… when you explain it that way… I see your point…
I also understand better why Obama felt compelled to fire Flynn… he seems to be a bit of a nut…
And wherever Flynn is tonight, he’s probably not having a good time…
raven
@Immanentize: And the Wrigley Building!
schrodingers_cat
International student applications to US universities are down by 40%, so much winning!
raven
@efgoldman: Who said it was the same thing?
raven
Handshake Drugs
efgoldman
@Immanentize:
If stories about Nunes being in a meeting with Flynn and the Turks(?) or Russians(?) are true, he has much bigger problems.
Something like that would not be covered by immunities under the constitution speech or debate clause.
Baud
@Immanentize: Isn’t that what we’re talking about? Anyway, I think it will be difficult for him to parse his words now.
Immanentize
@raven: mmmmm. Wilco.
Heavy Metal Drummer
Baud
Things you learn on the Appalachian Trail (CNN)
Immanentize
@Baud: well, isn’t Flynn now all about Turkey and his work as a foreign agent for Erdogan? But I agree, if Sessions is not staying out of this — wow, just wow.
martian
@efgoldman: Things went pear-shaped so damn fast. I mean, Trump had a trophy widow to exploit by his first address to Congress. I assume these operations are not any kind of shoot from the hip, do it on a dare thing normally. There’s lots of planning. So, have things appeared to turn to shit because, like every other institution Trump brushes up against, the illusion of competence and integrity has been stripped away? I’ve been hearing about how Democrats tie the hands of the military for my entire life. Is this rapidly growing pile of dead civilians what we must inevitably get without meaningful civilian oversight? I question how much Trump’s crew is even capable of egging on generals to where they wouldn’t willingly go on their own.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@efgoldman:
Which would explain why he goes running to Trump at the drop of a hat… he’s not just trying to protect Trump, he’s trying to protect himself too?
JPL
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: I hope that he has a lot of security, if that is true. Comey went to the White House yesterday, and Trump is played golf today. Doesn’t seem like a guy that’s worried.
raven
Gonzaga just had a steal and a fast break and a young lady was sweeping the floor and had to run for her life.
Immanentize
@efgoldman: that is true, but until it slips away, Nunes and the Republicans have so many cards to play.
Meanwhile, why hasn’t ZEGS been required to answer for Nunes’ actions. Ryan needs an anvil right now.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Immanentize: Absolutely that’s what they’re looking for, IMO. But as you know, the first to talk gets the best deal. All of them are looking at time, the question is how much. As efg notes, LTG Flynn can get recalled, face a court martial and lose his pension. But he ain’t gonna get Club Fed absent extraordinary information given Woolsey’s description of conspiracy to manage rendition. Manafort just wants supermax instead of super radiation or a GSW.
My prediction is everybody does time, and the talk is for the period and location. My hope is that Pence is caught up, and lots of GOP power brokers. Don’t forget the oil deal with Rosneft too. Lots of angles.
@West of the Rockies (been a while): They can’t grant useful (intended) immunity as that requires US DOJ authorization. But testimony could kinda fuck up a RICO prosecution, and Congress can immunize them to a certain extent from perjury prosecution for committee testimony.
Adam L Silverman
I just got in – was at the gym. I’ll have more on this either later this evening or tomorrow. Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) is: it appears the President ordered an easing of the Rules of Engagement for these strikes. What that means in practical terms is that the risk assessment as part of the targeting package is adjusted. If, before, the targeting intelligence had to be, (hypothetically) say 95% certain that the target or targets were at location X and that the risk of collateral damage to non-combatant civilians and their property was low, (hypothetically) say under 5%, now those percentages have changed. So, again hypothetically, now the confidence in the intelligence might be at the 85% mark and that the risk for collateral damage to non-combatant civilians might be 15% and the mission would still be approved.
I would expect that as a result of this the Secretary of Defense in consultation with the CENTCOM Commander and the Combined Joint Task Force Commander and the Combined Joint Force Air Component Commander (C/JFACC – a USAF 2 star) and the CJTF Commander’s Officer in Charge of Intelligence (J2) and the Staff Judge Advocates at all those levels will be working to tighten them back up. Nothing is going to screw up the dynamic we have on the ground with our Iraqi partners and the by, with, and through strategy than this happening on a regular basis.
raven
@Adam L Silverman:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/25/iraq-suspends-mosul-offensive-after-coalition-airstrike-atrocity
efgoldman
@Immanentize:
Ought to be really interesting when the FBI forensic accountants get to his bank accounts and other financials, if they haven’t already.
Adam L Silverman
@sharl: No. I know LTG Townsend. I know his chief of intelligence – he’s my former student as are several other members of LTG Townsend’s senior staff. I provided the keynote and kickoff briefing for their strategic assessment process before they deployed and have provided follow on support. I cannot imagine LTG Townsend playing fast and loose with the Rules of Engagement.
Omnes Omnibus
@artem1s: I don’t know what Mattis’s involvement is, but McMaster’s position is one of advisor. He has no authority over military operations.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Do they really calculate confidence levels mathematically like that?
Immanentize
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: hire more prosecutors!
Adam L Silverman
@Thru the Looking Glass…: Juliette Kayyem, former Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security broke this on CNN last night:
It feels right, but it could just be vapors.
efgoldman
@martian:
I question whether the crew is capable of even counting the stars on a general’s collar.
Adam L Silverman
@Thru the Looking Glass…: Former Assistant Secretary of DHS under President Obama. Current professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School. She’s not going to freelance on this. That said, given the current information environment, while it feels right it may not be.
Adam L Silverman
@martian: Probably look a lot like this:
Adam L Silverman
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Yes, but…
JPL
@efgoldman: Did you see the Daily Beast article about Nunes disappearing.. link
He could be in a situation much deeper than he planned for.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
This hypothetical example would be a shift that tripled the expected incidences of collateral damage. Is that typical of the level of change that happens in reality? Asking from total ignorance about (current) procedures for modifying military decision making processes.
efgoldman
@raven:
Howkum you’re not watching Duluth vs my BU Terriers in the hockey regional? Don’t you live in Duluth? Or is that Ms Duinne?
Roger Moore
@Thru the Looking Glass…:
He was on the trump transition team, so we’d know that anyway.
raven
@efgoldman: Duluth Georgia is close.
Adam L Silverman
@martian: No. But they follow orders. I was planning a post/am planning a post on the current strategy, which is Obama’s, and why the US military has come around to embrace it. If they’re ordered to loosen the ROE, the ROE will be loosened. My informed guess in these two incidents is that they’d done their due diligence, they though they had good targeting intel and a proper risk assessment to mitigate against non-combatant civilian casualties, and things went wrong. Despite everyone’s best efforts this is a war. And unexpected things happen in a war no matter how careful you are. I know a lot of the people involved in what is going on downrange right now. A good number are my former students. These are thoughtful, careful people. They are not bloodthirsty rage addicts.
efgoldman
@JPL:
I certainly hope so
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Please tell me that was snark. Lie if you have to.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Immanentize: I still got chops! And I think there has to be an Independent Counsel given Sessions ties to the campaign. Appearances matter, and this is a constitutional crisis.*
@Adam L Silverman: Malcolm Nance said he knows it’s LTG Flynn first on AM Joy, and reiterated that prediction on twitter. Schindler (that asshole) certainly doesn’t disagree, and thinks Nunes has problems…
@efgoldman: You crack me up! Thanks.
*Optics is a term to be used discussing light and lenses. I refuse to use it as a synonym for visuals/appearances. /pedant
Adam L Silverman
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Pence is in things up to his eyeballs. He was the one getting the PDBs six days a week during the transition and more regularly than the President during the last couple of months of the campaign. Ryan and McConnell were, as reported, briefed shortly before the election and McConnell told President Obama that if he publicly released the info of Russian involvement that McConnell would cry “interference in the election for partisan gain”. Again: penetration at all levels and significant useful idiots who were pursuing their own agendas and power.
Yarrow
@JPL: Nunes is in the mess way past the level he can handle. He’s not that bright and he’s going to be a weak link.
Doesn’t surprise me if Flynn has flipped. He’s been very quiet. Manafort, Stone and Page are busy elbowing each other out of the way to be the first to talk because the first one usually gets the cushiest deal. Not sure how that’s going to go though.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: It is no doubt a screw up. And a set back. And I’m not excusing it or even apologizing for it, just trying to explain it.
Keith G
@Mary G:
Obama was in possession of some pretty powerful dials.
Baud
I think the media need to add the Law & Order chime every time they report on the Trump administration.
raven
@Adam L Silverman: I know that, I just didn’t know if you’d seen that news .
efgoldman
@Omnes Omnibus:
C’mon. How long have we been doing this?
Where are the Badgers since Bob what’s his name (I really don’t remember) retired?
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: They’ll run percentages. This isn’t an exact science no matter how much our tech advances. Intelligence collection, analysis, and use is artisan type work. There will always be errors and mistakes. We do everything we can to mitigate them. None of the folks making the decisions have any desire to make war on civilians.
Eric S.
@p.a.: Odds are 0% If Trump and his buffoons are organizing it. They just aren’t competent. At anything.
Immanentize
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: wouldn’t that be a cool office to work in for a few years.
raven
@efgoldman: That’s cold.
efgoldman
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
I live to serve [:::bows:::]
raven
@Adam L Silverman: The Guardian seems the think maybe Brit plans had a part in it.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: I don’t know. I’m not a targeteer and I’m not a (that kind of) intel bubba. I was a niche type of fusion HUMINT collector, analyst, and researcher. It wasn’t even called Intel by the Army to make a distinction between what I do and what the Intel folks do.
Here’s the link to the manual:
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp2_0.pdf
ETA: The above said, I have participated in numerous Concept of Operations (CONOP) briefings as a special staff officer in my assignment as a cultural advisor. One of the reasons these briefings are done is to ensure that other considerations other than just that used to produced the targeting package is considered to ensure as much as is possible that things like this don’t happen. This is why they don’t happen that often. We’ve been doing this with the Iraqis for almost four years and we’ve had very few of these. That we’ve had two within two weeks may, unfortunately, just be the laws of averages catching up to us.
efgoldman
@Yarrow:
I’m not sure he can handle going potty by himself.
Somebody said years ago that Republiklowns’ randomly rotating committee chairmen in the house was going to bite them in the ass someday.
Adam L Silverman
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: I agree with both of them. But, again, until something more formal than a bunch of folks, including me, with varying levels of experience with this stuff saying “this is what seems to be happening” we can’t be sure.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: Ahhh, tracking. Thanks.
Gin & Tonic
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
Brava!
efgoldman
@raven:
It’s ice hockey. Of course it’s cold.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Most recently, they lost to Penn State in the Big 10 championship final (2-1 double OT). They would have needed to win that game to make the NCAA tournament.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Adam L Silverman: @Adam L Silverman:
I really trust Nance and Schindler (that asshole) to be pretty immunized to deza or provokatzya, and I’m sure they’ve got direct sources. But I defer to your superior experience on this part. I’ll assert superior knowledge of the court stuff, however.
Thank you G&T and I hope you’re high AF and in no pain. Stay ahead of it.
Adam L Silverman
@raven: It is a possibility.
chris
@zhena gogolia:
Damn skippy! That explains it, thanks.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman:
I think it’s time for some of our statesmen and stateswomen to step up and start talking publicly what happens if and when the GOP ticket – not just Trump, but Pence too, enabled by Ryan and McConnell – is found to have colluded with a hostile foreign power to get elected, then lied and covered it up. If Trump knew, and Pence knew, and Ryan & McConnell knew and did nothing…65 million Americans were deprived of their vote last November and going down the line of succession until we have Ryan, Hatch, or Tillerson as our president ain’t gonna cut it.
Bill Arnold
Somewhat off topic, an infosec guy’s (“the grugq”) take on Russian political manipulation efforts here and elsewhere:
American Snoper[sic]
It’s a little outline-y (readers have to know enough to fill in some of the thoughts) but might be interesting. (Adam has covered this space pretty well in his fascinating posts; the grugq (who I’m told doesn’t look much like the photo) is worth following IMO on medium and on twitter)
Timurid
@Adam L Silverman:
How many 95% targets are there in Mosul?
Mosul is a total nightmare. I don’t know that it’s possible to fight there without significant collateral damage. It’s a very dense urban center with lots of multistory apartment blocks and office buildings. Many of those are probably not built to code (as understood in the West) and could be brought down by a near miss. And the enemy has no real ROE, no concerns about collateral damage and a readiness to use human shields.
Goku
Query: what is going to compel Sessions to remain “recused”. Can anybody stop him if he goes the full-jackboot?
Yarrow
@Jeffro: Agreed. At some point the whole party is suspect. And what about those downticket races that were influenced because the Dem candidates’ communications were hacked and released publicly, which put them on defense. It seems that quite a few House and maybe Senate races were influenced in this way. The whole thing is suspect.
efgoldman
@Omnes Omnibus:
Where the hell did Penn State come from? They beat Union today 10-0(!!) Ten years ago nobody in Nittany territory could even spell hockey.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Fuck if I know.
mike in dc
@Jeffro:
We may wind up with an extra-constitutional solution. If both Trump and Pence are tainted, then Tillerson is tainted too. And Ryan or Hatch? The notion of keeping the presidency in Republican hands after the worst scandal in history may be a non-starter. There is a potential solution–appoint someone else as Speaker, then that person becomes president and a Republican replacement is elected speaker. It’d have to be some kind of palatable caretaker president, someone who promises not to run for re-election. Wildly implausible at this point, yes, but in such a worst case scenario it may make sense.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Who was Jason in the video link at #117? Seems to he quite the tool.
piratedan
@Jeffro: yeah, that’s similar to my thoughts that I posted on a similar thread last night… although I was thinking Pence was too stupid to be included, now it appears he was too stupid not to be included.
Still remains to be seen how far down the rabbit hole this goes… the entire WH looks like it’s compromised… so Trump, Pemce, Bannon at a minimum, plus the immediate circle of folks that were involved during the campaign, Flynn, Manafort, Stone, Page, Lewandoski, Conway, Guliani, Christie, how many laws were broken and what laws were they? treason, collusion, money laundering, civil rights violations, election laws circumvented?
Then we get to the enablers, Ryan, McConnell, the media noise machine on the right… the NYT?
How are they involved? If not complicit, how can they have any say in our politics from this point forward?
Do we have the means to prosecute them, if so, on whose authority, do we have the political will to do so? How much will the GOP assent to or will they fight this thinking that it’s all just “partisan politics” to borrow McConnell’s framing?
If we do try and root this out, what will Putin do in response?
Constitutional crisis is at hand here, but does anyone outside the IC even realize it yet?
Roger Moore
@Goku:
I think the main thing stopping him would be fear of exposure. If he tries to quash a promising line of investigation, whomever he’s interfering with will go to the media. That may not be enough to stop him, but look at what happened to Nixon after the Saturday Night Massacre.
Jeffro
@Yarrow: Yes, the whole thing – possibly many of these other races – is indeed suspect. I know not everyone agrees with the thought that Russian hacking/leaking/collusion with GOP = acts of war against our country, but it’s not a hard case to make in my opinion. Putin, aided by Trumpov & Co, effectively nullified Dems’ votes. That can’t stand.
@mike in dc: The only two directions I’m comfortable with are to hold a new election, or seat HRC as the 45th president of the U.S. Both would be extremely difficult for the country, I know (the latter probably even more than the former).
I won’t bore everyone by saying this more than once tonight (as I have been wont to do in the past), but if HRC were to agree to be sworn in, then immediately resign and turn the presidency over to Tim Kaine…well, you can’t get much more of a calming influence than Tim Kaine. =)
(And Kaine could nominate a somewhat moderate R like Kasich to serve as his VP, if that helps bring the country back together. Is is ideal? No, of course not. But we’re in difficult, uncharted waters.)
No Pence and No Ryan.
Omnes Omnibus
@piratedan:
Since we are all sitting here talking about it, I am going to say that the answer is yes.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: He said outside the IC.
.
.
.
I’ve said too much.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@West of the Rockies (been a while): Jason Miller, Team Trump. A spox at some point I believe.
@Jeffro: Kasich is no moderate, just a different flavor of extreme. But your point remains that the most “moderate” of Rs that could be found might be soothing. There’s just no good way out of this tangle.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro:
What is the legal mechanism to do something like this?
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud:
I am keeping up my cover.ETA: Damn it. Oops.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: HRC would have to be named Speaker.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
Crikey, Trump has surrounded himself with loser: Miller, Conway, Omorosa, Sessions, Bannon… it’s like a murderers’ row of pinheads.
Yarrow
@piratedan: Don’t forget Jared Kushner. He was in that secret meeting at Trump Tower with Kislyak. And if we’re talking Jared, that may include Ivanka. And of course Donald, Jr. said a significant amount of their funding is from Russia. So let’s take a look at Don, Jr. and Eric.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Okay, but the whole thing sounds cray-cray to me. More likely is a disgraced President Trump and Dem majorities in 2018.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Agree. No amount of disgrace will cause the GOP to give up power. The voters would have to do it if is to be done at all.
Omnes Omnibus
@West of the Rockies (been a while):
Gabba gabba hey!
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: @Baud:
Or plaintiffs with standing could take it to SCOTUS that their 14th amendment equal protection rights were violated by other Americans, in collusion with a hostile foreign power. SCOTUS could issue a ruling that either a new election is needed or that the GOP ticket is voided and therefore HRC is the lawful 45th president.
dmsilev
@Omnes Omnibus: Assuming sufficient political will (and a pony),
1) Kaine is sworn in as Speaker of the House; there’s no requirement that the Speaker be a Representative
2) Congress simultaneously impeaches & convicts Trump and Pence. Speaker Kaine is now President Kaine
3) President Kaine picks a VP nominee, and sends that person’s name to the Senate for confirmation.
Implementing this is left as an exercise for the reader.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: Won’t happen.
Goku
@Yarrow: None of these clowns (not just the Trumps but Manafort, Flynn, Page, Nunes, Sessions, Stone etc) can be allowed to get away with this, traditional avenues of justice be damned. They need to pay for undermining our democracy and everything this country is supposed to stand for. Then Putin will be next.
martian
@Adam L Silverman: That Trump deposition was in the Before Times.
@Adam L Silverman: I guess we wait to see if the ROE are tightened back up again. Will that change need to get past Trump? Since Republicans never seem to be put off of their theories or tough talk by actual, real world evidence of their failure, it seems plausible that Trump would think “Again! Harder! Let’s really take the gloves off, now!” a rational course of action.
Yarrow
@Jeffro: There’s just no way Hillary would be sworn in. At best a caretaker president would be appointed and a presidential election pushed up to 2018 for a two year temporary term. Otherwise I think we go through all of the corrupt next-in-lines.
@Omnes Omnibus:
There isn’t one. It’s a pipe dream.
That being said, we are in a kind of unprecedented situation. I’m not sure going through the traitors’ row of next-in-lines all the way down is good either. How many traitors are in the next-in-line list? All of them, Katie?
efgoldman
@Jeffro:
And I could be named Duke of Grand Fenwick.
This is right up there with last December’s fantasies of the EC rescuing us and the senate taking the three-minute vote to confirm Garland.
Gin & Tonic
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Thanks. Modern pharmaceuticals are more effective than the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear.
Goku
@efgoldman: The EC is also on my shit list. Fuckers, they had one job. Another useless institution that needs to be 86’d
Gin & Tonic
@Jeffro: You’re higher than I am!
Baud
@Goku: Agreed.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: Ok. Let’s not even try, then.
@Yarrow:
Appointed…by who? And how would that be any more lawful than what I’m proposing?
There are several legal mechanisms here – none are that farfetched, either.
Having said that, if we’re going to go down the line of succession…it’ll mean proving that Pence is guilty to the extent that he resigns or is removed (how likely is that?)…then moving on to Ryan (does he strike any of us as likely to resign or be removed?) …and then Hatch, and so on. Throwing in the towel on other remedies means essentially accepting Pence, possibly Ryan, as president until 2020. After that, Orrin Hatch is our ‘caretaker’ president. There are worse things, but it feels like a tenth of a victory.
J R in WV
@efgoldman:
Flynn is:::
Boy, what a grim choice! Recalled to duty, cashiered, lost pension, just WOW!!!!
Can’t wait, couldn’t happen to a more deserving guy.
I know a lot of you think little of Snowden, but he was/is a naive youngster who thought he was the smartest guy in the room. He may have been that smart, but he was also very inexperienced.
Flynn is a battle-hardened soldier with (supposedly) experience with counter intelligence and spy vrs. spy. So much harder to give him the benefit of the doubt!
Jeffro
@Gin & Tonic: Is that even possible?
(You’re reminding me of an old Sam Kinison sketch where he got so high that even God was P.O.-ed…ahh, I miss Sam!)
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku: They did their job. They voted for their chosen candidate. That being said, the Electoral College is an antidemocratic anachronism.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: There is, as far as I know, no political solution to this. I’ve seen speculation that there may be or should or at least an attempt should be made for a judicial solution to this. That if the GOP nominee and his campaign colluded with the Russians to influence the election, which they did, than both Secretary Clinton, the Democratic Party, and at least 3 million more Americans that voted for the President have standing to seek relief.
This is why I have been writing for a while that we’re in a Constitutional crisis. Every Constitutional mechanism – from the electoral college as delineated by Hamilton in the Federalist Papers to the emoluments clause to the way the Constitution defines treason to the separate but equal branch of Congress – failed to prevent what has happened from happening. If there’s no solution or remedy within the existing framework I do not know where one goes for a solution or a remedy other than the one branch not yet appealed to: the Federal courts.
And here’s your Pence-Manafort connection:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/30/torture-lobbyist-paul-manafort-still-advising-donald-trump-on-cabinet-picks.html
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Yarrow:
I don’t know how even that much happens within the Constitution. And however we get out of this, it has to be within the framework of the Constitution. No matter what shenanigans got us here, legal or not.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Not all of ours did their jobs. Assholes.
Adam L Silverman
@Timurid: I don’t know. I’m not down there with these guys. And I think that’s part of the problem. ISIL has turned the entire greater Mosul municipality into a kill zone. Same thing they did with Ramadi and Fallujah and the same thing they’ve done with Raqqa in Syria. I know a lot of the people involved with making these decision on the ground in Iraq. Some are colleagues, some are also my former students. Some are general officers I’ve served with and provided support to before. I am not going to second guess them without the ability to see what they saw in order to make the decisions they made. They are serious professionals. It may simply be that the law of averages caught up with us. There may have been a different problem.
BBA
Oh, for fuck’s sake. The only way Trump is leaving office before January 20, 2021, is in a hearse.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: Step off, bub. Just because I don’t support extra-Constitutional and silly options does not mean that I am opposed to fighting against Trump. We should work to take back Congress. I am from Wisconsin where anger at Scott Walker got channeled into a misguided attempt to recall him rather than into retaking the legislature.
Yarrow
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I don’t know either. As Adam said in the comment above yours, it’s possible that there is a judicial solution. Perhaps they could make the decision that, given the level of treasonous activity and how widespread and far down it went, that it’s not possible to use the normal mechanisms to appoint a next-in-line. So they appoint a caretaker president with a one time rule that elections be pulled forward to 2018.
As Adam said, we’re in a constitutional crisis and I don’t think we have the mechanisms in place to deal with it. I don’t know what will happen.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
I could imagine him being removed. It’s not like he’s super-popular with his caucus as it is; if things got toxic enough that trump and Pence were both in danger and he was mixed up in the same mess, I think he’d be in deep trouble, too. I think, though, that the most likely case for some kind of caretaker President would be Hatch. He’s the first person in the line of succession who doesn’t appear to be personally compromised by the whole business, and he’s old enough that a promise to serve only one term would be very credible.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: The Court would likely try to duck it as a political question.
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: Everything will leak. The reason he recused himself is because someone with access to the CI information leaked. That was a warning shot. He recognized it even if the President didn’t. The next shot, if required, is for effect.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: We voted for electors who had pledged to vote for a certain candidate. They did that.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman:
I agree that – primarily since there are no GOP statesmen/”moderates” left, who’ll put country before party – there’s no political solution here. It will end up in court (and how fitting, since this concerns one Donald J. Trump!). Whether it is HRC, the Dems, 3M additional voters, or 65M whose votes were nullified, there was an injury done here to a set of Americans by another set of Americans colluding with a hostile foreign power. It requires a solution that does not reward the “colluders”.
And that is where it will likely go, and should. Fingers crossed!
If for some reason this turns into 1) Trump in investigated and is forced out or resigns; Pence takes power 2) Pence is investigated and is forced out or resigns, Ryan takes power, 3) Ryan is investigated… well, by then we should be pretty close to the 2018 election if not the 2020 one, and the ire of the electorate will (in theory) sweep these clowns out while doing great damage to the GOP. Pretty much the same result, but with a lot more damage to the country as well along the way.
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: You’re right – the solution should be within the framework of the Constitution, and in all these variations, I have tried to stick to that.
Mike J
@efgoldman:
All the cold showers the child molesters had to take to calm down made them fond of ice.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: We had five faithless electors.
Adam L Silverman
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Yep, he’s not the White House Director of Communications because it turns out he had an affair with the annoying AJ Delgado during the campaign. He’s married. Not to her. She’s pregnant with his child. He’s also got issues with past anti-Semitic statements, which he waved away because his beloved wife, who he cheated on, is Jewish.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: What did I propose that was extra-constitutional?
Yarrow
@Jeffro:
He may not really get a choice. The healthcare bill debacle of yesterday showed how bad he is at his job. Bannon has been gunning for him and the bill’s failure will be made out to be all Ryan’s fault. The Freedom Caucus negotiated for concessions and got them so they’re emboldened. The rest of the GOP House members are disgusted with him. I could easily see him being forced out as Speaker. Who would take the job I don’t know. But if he is forced out he’s no longer third in line.
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus:
You don’t live in Washington.
Adam L Silverman
@martian: I’m not even sure they’ve been loosened yet. This may have just been an operation that went wrong using the existing ROE. It happens no matter how careful one is. That it doesn’t happen more often is a good sign that we’re very good at this sort of thing.
J R in WV
@dogwood:
NO one is talking about Pelosi running for president. We’re talking about everyone in power being indicted or impeached with Nancy left the one leader still standing in the succession according to the rule/list in the Amendment.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus:
No, some Hillary electors didn’t.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: You are asking for a reverse Bush v Gore.
JMG
@Yarrow: As noted earlier, an unnamed Republican in a Wall Street Journal story said this morning that he didn’t think Ryan would lose his job because “no one particularly wants to be Henry VIII’s next wife.”
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: @Baud: @Mike J: Would they have made a difference?
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I have no doubt they would. And if the lower courts didn’t, the Supremes certainly would. I honestly do not know what happens here. As I’ve written before: penetration at all levels and officials who are useful idiots because they were pursuing their own agendas, which just happened to overlap.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus:
No, but you said the electors did their job, Baud said some of ours didn’t. That’s what he was referring to.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: No, not this time. Can you imagine if we lose in 2020 because some electors thought our candidate wasn’t pure enough?
efgoldman
@J R in WV:
Only thing is, I don’t know the timeline. Adam can answer if any of what he (apparently) did was while he was technically still active military, and if not, whether he’s still subject to recall.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Remember when Trump was merely a bigoted, incompetent president? He makes Nixon look like a Boy Scout.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Does that involve a live chicken or a dead goat? I can never keep it straight…//
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Jeffro: My comment wasn’t addressed to you specifically, just my general feeling about all of this. Whatever our way out of this swamp is, it has to be in a way that feels to the American public like it’s still within the framework of the thing called “the United States”, which is defined by the Constitution.
So for instance I wish with all my heart for it to end with a Hillary presidency, perhaps by a redo of the 2016 election. But that’s one of the things that I can’t see happening within the Constitution. Nor do I see any other kind of Presidential election happening before 2020. But I admit I’m not any kind of legal scholar. Didn’t we have a Constitution Law professor as a President recently? Maybe somebody should start consulting him.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
re your Pence-Manafort link:
So, if this were true, and it wasn’t over something like Signal, there would be metadata at the very least, right?
(Signal claims they don’t keep metadata. Might be true.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: @zhena gogolia: I am not a fan of the Electoral College. I was just saying that the EC functioned more or less as designed.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: No Flynn is a targeteer. He’s not a HUMINTER as far as I know. Yes, he’s Military Intelligence, but they’re not all the same.
Here’s the MOS list for 35 Series MOS:
http://www.army-portal.com/jobs/military-intelligence/
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Could be in person. A lot of this was done at Trump Tower. Manafort lives in Trump Tower.
Villago Delenda Est
OK, this is all pretty grim, I can’t dispute that.
Time for some good news: Blue state team Oregon ahead of red state team Kansas at the half for a Final Four berth.
Amaranthine RBG
I realize this is almost all just speculation — but what is teh theory about Nunez and Trump being on the hook for something involving Flynn?
I understand that Flynn was doing work for a company (really Turkey) without proper registration but how does that get to Trump/Nunez?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Both. And fur-lined handcuffs.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Bull Shitter from Vt was peddling his Medicare for all scheme yesterday on Chris Hayes, according Huffpo.
Another Scott
@raven: The BBC was saying this morning that the number of dead was 200.
At the moment they’re saying dozens of civilians.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: He mentions it every time health care comes up. That doesn’t bother me. It’s how he does it that counts. I saw that episode, and Michael Moore was much worse.
That said, I’m concerned it will be an issue if we regain Congress and win in 2020. Despite what they think, I don’t think the country will be ready for single payer by then.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: What was Flynn? A 35G?
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Villago Delenda Est:
Go, Ducks! Quaaaaaack!
Bill Arnold
@BBA:
Failure of imagination.
Not gonna fill in scenario details.
(OK, benign hypothetical. Let’s say that doctors he respects tell him that he needs to drastically reduce stress levels. “Spend more time with his companies”. Win-win.)
Sam
@Adam L Silverman: she said tonight that on a scale of 0-10 of serious issue here she is at 7. To me the only real question is whether it reaches the president in a criminal matter. It is pretty clear that garden-variety scandal won’t move the republicans. There would have to be evidence that Trump was involved in some sort of collusion/money laundering/whatever. Can’t be too complicated and has to be serious enough so that his allies abandon him.
efgoldman
@Roger Moore:
I can see him being turfed by the kkkrazy kkkaukus by the time the debt ceiling fight rolls around, for the same reasons Weeping Cheetoh was – nothing to do with the Russians.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus:
I hear you…it does feel like that, by asking SCOTUS to overturn an election and ‘install’ someone. But without being any sort of legal scholar, here’s the differences:
1) We’re not talking about a state’s recount procedures here…we would be talking about some Americans, by virtue of their collusion with a hostile foreign power, depriving other Americans of their vote and their duly elected representation.
2) We’re not talking about just those Americans’ actions (treason?) nor an act of war (possibly) by Russia depriving Americans of their representation, but the criminal cover-up that happened at all levels, all along the way.
3) In theory, we’d be leaving it up to SCOTUS to decide whether or not to call for a new, untainted election or to simply say that HRC is the president by default (if DJT is found to have taken part in this criminal conspiracy)…not necessarily saying, “Court, install Hillary!”
So yes it feels the same. But it would at least be on firmer ground than Bush v Gore, and leave the resolution up to SCOTUS. As an added bonus, there’d be no nonsense about how this decision should not set precedent, is a one-time-only thing, etc. The principles involved would be easy to apply should any similar situation arise in the future.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Omnes Omnibus: Under an archway of green balloons.
Turning back to the topic:
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I don’t get cable so I am spared the heartburn.
ETA: MM annoys me, always has.
Jeffro
Um…comment just disappeared?
Omnes Omnibus
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: So you know that one?
sukabi
@Baud: no, psycho shower scene cue.
Aleta
Flynn selling out Kushner would go a long way toward entangling Trump.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Ouch. Could still have been covert recordings by one or both parties though. Can’t see members of this gang trusting each other completely.
Another Scott
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Yup.
Fantasy ideas of SCOTUS calling new elections and so forth are a distraction.
There are two mechanisms to remove a President early – Impeachment and the 25th Amendment. The only other way the President changes early is if s/he resigns or dies in office. Anything else is Unconstitutional and is not something we should be seriously discussing.
IMHO.
Cheers,
Scott.
Aleta
@sukabi: Either one, automatically, each time a new post comes up here.
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Yes. Thank you.
Jeffro
@Another Scott:
Love it! Since when is taking a case to SCOTUS unconstitutional?
Chet Murthy
@Baud: Baud, we don’t have full information. Maybe it’s not possible to -get- full information. But we do know this:
(1) there’s been a LOT of reporting over the years about the propensity for close-to-ground military units to blow things up in order to neutralize their local opponents.
(2) It’s also been heavily reported that “the lawyers” are always pulling back the troops from many such operations, b/c the balance of military gain to projected civlian casualities was too unfavorable
(3) and we know that with Dampnut, there’s been a push to move the decision-making down the command hierarchy and “take the gloves off”.
I’m not going to pretend I know this stuff — I’m a civilian. But I’ve read over and over about how our military is great at tactics, and terrible at strategy, b/c our generals don’t understand that the goal isn’t to win a battle or even a campaign — it’s to turn restive and angry populations into allies or at least neutrals.
It is not in our national interest to produce vast armies of bitter, angry Sunnis. And that holds EVEN IF our (mostly Shia) Iraqi “allies” (more like “clients’) are unconcerned. And I don’t need to be a military genius to know this.
It sure seems like this isn’t just “another airstrike”
Again, it’s possible that this is just part of operations in a heavily-populated area. But it’s also possible that we’re making a lot of enemies per square foot gained, and perhaps even pissing off our allies/clients (per the article).
Another Scott
@Jeffro: What “case”? SCOTUS will say – “Political Question – Next!”
This is nothing like Bush v. Gore, for example. Bush wasn’t certified the winner by Congress and wasn’t sworn in as President at the time.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chet Murthy
@PsiFighter37: Here’s a link re: newly relaxed rules of engagement
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro:
One doesn’t just file a case at the Supreme Court. Another Scott is right about the constitutional ways to remove a president. It is the world in which we live. Deal with it.
efgoldman
@Villago Delenda Est:
I have no dog in the fight, but all the Flying Fashion Nightmares teams deserve to lose just to get those uniforms off my teevee.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh okay, I will “deal with it”.
Of course you don’t just file at SCOTUS. You file in federal court for relief and work your way up. You two keep pretending that isn’t a possibility, or constitutional, for reasons which are kinda mysterious to me. But whatever. Let’s have Another Scott continue to tell everyone what is and isn’t possible, and then you can keep following on to tell people to “deal with it”. Sounds well-thought out! Also sounds a lot like the guy we’re trying to kick out of the Oval Office.
Aleta
Even if voters were given false information before choosing a candidate, that doesn’t invalidate an election does it? *
Seems like the way to get Trump to step down would be to let him pretend to negotiate a deal, with the threat of prosecution the alternative.
* ETA (After all, it happens a lot.)
efgoldman
@Jeffro:
Expecting SCOTUS to take the case, let alone adjudicate it, is the fantasy. Like it or not, it’s a political matter to be decided by the political branches.
Chet Murthy
@bupalos: Yeah, but there’s the problem of who will backfill her in the House, eh? And she’s pretty old (so will Wilmer be). I think it’d be better if the Dems could find younger talent. And I think we have it. I’m very impressed with Adam Schiff. I hear good things about Sen. Harris, and she sure did a good job as CA AG.
I’m sure there are others.
I kind of wonder who Nancy SMASH is bringing up as her successor/replacement/apprentices.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: I am sorry that I don’t buy into fairy tales. You really want to say that I sound like Trump? Fuck you.
Chet Murthy
@martian: Oh, c’mon. They don’t need to be cowboys, to have a different calculus of “how many of ours are we willing to give up, in order to not kill too many of theirs”, from the pols and senior military who direct strategy. Yes?
ETA: That said, I recall reading quite a bit by Tom Ricks during the Iraq War, about how awful our generals were at connecting national strategic goals with actual military operations. He was quite, quite brutal.
Chet Murthy
@dogwood: Oh crikey, yeah, I remember now. I remember her and Tom Daschle make a dog’s breakfast of a SOTU response to C- Augustus. Lordy, it was -so- awful. In fairness, Daschle was just as awful as Pelosi.
Jeffro
@efgoldman: Ok, since you say so, let’s go with that and close off the possibility. Me, I like to push on all fronts.
Villago Delenda Est
@Jeffro: There’s no mechanism provided for in the Constitution to resolve this aside from Impeachment or the 25th, which has never been tested as this situation presents itself.
We are in uncharted waters.
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: This is how I know you lost the argument. I mean, I thought so, but yeah, this confirms it.
Villago Delenda Est
@efgoldman: Alas, the Fighting Fashion Nightmares are in the Final Four.
Go Ducks!
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I don’t know. I would think either a Delta or a Gulf.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chet Murthy: Speaker and Majority Leader aren’t media relations jobs. They are vote counters. And enforcers.
Adam L Silverman
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Now if only there was crowd sourced funding.
Jeffro
@Villago Delenda Est: When people are denied their rights, they take it to court. When courts decide things, they can get appealed by either side. Appeals, eventually, end up at SCOTUS.
I totally agree we’re in uncharted waters. I even agree with some – like OO and AS – that it’s very unlikely it’ll all go this route. (In fact, I think I noted about 100 comments ago that in all likelihood, by the time this proceeds through Trump, Pence, Ryan, we’ll be at the 2018 elections if not the 2020 ones). But for clowns like OO and AS to dismiss it out of hand, that’s just silly. There are alternatives. There are ways to ensure that those who committed from this crime and cover-up do not benefit from it.
So yes, impeachment, the 25th amendment…or if parties with standing bring a case in federal court that they were denied equal protection, and that not just Trump but the whole R ticket cannot benefit…we’re out in the Great Wide Open, and we’ll need to stick together. Probably best if folks like OO and AS remembered that going forward.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jeffro: Explain it to me.
Villago Delenda Est
@Jeffro: I just don’t see how the standard judicial process deals with something like this, no matter how much we yearn for justice.
Recall that the Watergate Grand Jury wanted to indict Nixon himself, and Leon Jaworski wouldn’t let them do it, so they secretly named Nixon an unindicted co-conspirator. Jaworski told them that the remedy for Nixon’s crimes, if any, was Impeachment. That of course was in very different, less partisan political times than we’re in now. Republicans had not morphed into orcs yet.
Adam L Silverman
@Chet Murthy: I’m going to state this once and once only. I know the CJTF Commander. I have known him since 2009 when he was the Deputy Commander at the 101st and I prepped every member of the Command Staff, every Brigade Commander, Deputy Commander, XO, and Senior Enlisted, and every Battalion Commander, XO, and Senior Enlisted for their deployments to Afghanistan. I know his Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (J2) – he was one of my students at USAWC -well. I know the Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics (J4) – he was one of my students at USAWC – well. I know his Public Affairs Officers – he was one of my students at USAWC – well. I know the Combined Joint Force Land Component Commander (C/JFLCC) – he was the Chief of Staff at III Corps when I was temporarily assigned there in 2012 as the Cultural Advisor to the Corps Commander – I partially reported into the Command Group through him. I know the Commander of the Coalition Operations Center in Kirkuk – he was one of my students at USAWC – well. I briefed LTG Townsend, his Command Group, his senior staff, and as many of their staff as they could fit into the room on the geo-strategic and regional strategic assessment of the ISIL problem set and the Levantine AOR. This included a theater strategic socio-cultural assessment. It was the keynote and kickoff briefing for their strategic assessment and prep for their deployment. I was then on site with them at Bragg for several days as we worked through the strategic issues. I have provided follow on support as appropriate. All of these folks, as well as the Deputy Commander who is a British two star and the other members of the senior staff and staff that were not my students and I did not know until I briefed them, are all thoughtful professionals. All of the senior officers and members of the command group have multiple deployments to Iraq. They understand the strategy that they are implementing, why it makes sense, and this is after many of them felt it wasn’t a strong enough approach when the Obama Administration developed it.
They do not make war on civilians. They do not undertake operations willy nilly. And while it is true that they take their responsibility to safeguard the welfare of their Soldiers, they do not allow that to outweigh their responsibilities as members of the Profession of Arms and under the Laws of War. Something obviously went wrong. Very badly wrong. We don’t know what. We don’t know if how ISIL set the battlespace – entwining everything within the civilian population was the problem We don’t know if there was a problem with the Intel. We don’t know if something else went wrong. But I can tell you that what you’re describing about who these folks are and how the undertake their jobs is the farthest thing from the truth.
efgoldman
@Chet Murthy:
Might have something to do with the fact that W, Darth and Rummy never had any defined “national strategic goals.”
Chet Murthy
@Yarrow: Bringing in someone probably even *more unqualified*, oh joy. Not disagreeing. Just …. boy, a surfeit of shit sandwiches.
efgoldman
@Jeffro: You have no fucking business calling either of term (or anyone else around here) a clown
Omnes is a lawyer, and he’s been a judge. He’s got a pretty good idea what the law is.
Adam needs no defense. There’s a fucking good reason that everybody defers to him on these issues. Unless he’s lying to us all (including the blog owner) we should.
Unlike you, neither of them persists in making up fairy tales and fantasy projections.
Since this behavior isn’t like you, I’m going to assume you’re drunk on a Saturday night. Maybe you should go to bed.
Villago Delenda Est
@efgoldman: “Make money for Haliburton” seems to have been the goal.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman:
Only took 2 and 1/2 years to get found out…// ?
efgoldman
@Adam L Silverman:
ISIS/ISIL isn’t the first to use a civilian area/population as a shield in asymmetrical warfare, and they won’t be the last. That’s also a possibility.
Another Scott
@efgoldman: I think he was trying to argue with me, not Adam. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
efgoldman
@Villago Delenda Est:
Yeah, but they couldn’t tell the generals to build strategy around that.
Also, how did pissing away pallet loads of money (literally) make money for Halliburton?
efgoldman
@Another Scott:
He said what he said, and he had no business saying it.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: @Villago Delenda Est: It goes beyond that. A good deal of the problem is that the National strategy was incomplete. It was deliberately designed not to have ways and means that could be operationalized for what happened after combat ended and Saddam was deposed. Once that became inoperable what was hastily put together had to be adjusted every couple of years because it was insufficient. This was the don’t measure at all, cut multiple times effect. At the theater strategic level, once we landed on COIN, or at least utilizing and applying COIN principles, things got a bit better. But that was because the Iraqis had set the conditions for us – they had reset the socio-cultural components of the theater – in a way that made a theater strategy of applying COIN principles effective.
And here’s where things broke down again. By 2008 we had a lot of tactical and operational success under this strategy. Unfortunately one of the most important counterinsurgency principles is that when you’re working from the lowest societal levels up, you’re also working from the governmental side down. While the military was having success with the former, which was their task, the Bush 43 Administration and Embassy Baghdad, which were responsible for the governmental (top down) side failed. For a successful COIN strategy you have to build the lowest level up and marry it to the governmental side you’re also working from the top down. This was not possible because the Administration and Embassy were focusing on provincial elections and SOFA agreements and the other formal trappings of liberal democracy without bothering to see if any of those things could be mated to what the military and the limited Interagency folks on the Provincial Reconstruction Teams were doing from the ground up. As a result the by, with, and through strategy, which had significant operational success was a strategic failure.
Villago Delenda Est
@efgoldman: Sweet, sweet government contracts to support the entire operation. Rachel Maddow’s Drift outlines how this came to be SOP in American Foreign/Military policy.
Another Scott
@efgoldman: It’s fine.
Cheers,
Scott.
(And not in the this-is-fine-dog.jpeg sense. ;-)
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: That’s what I meant by:
Ruckus
What I don’t see with Jeffro’s idea of the SC trying this is two fold and IANAL First how does one start off suing the president in any court? You have to have standing, there has to be a law that may have been broken, and you have to be able to get the defendant in court. It’s that last part that I’m having the most issue with in this part. Second, why would any federal court take such a case, there are legal, constitutional remedies available, at least in theory if not in practice at this time.
About the only way I could see this having anything more than an absolutely zero chance would be if we were in a declared war and the president did something openly traitorous.
TenguPhule
@Jeffro: 4 Supremes will vote for treason and deadlock the court. And then what?
This is why I’ve said all along this is going to end up eventually as a Civil War. There is no way to fix this Constitutionally or Peacefully. Enough of the Rs are going to go for High Treason because they will have no choice, it will literally be do or die for them.
our institutions were not designed to handle the sheer number of traitors and collaberators that have seized power.
TenguPhule
@Another Scott:
And of those 4 options, only one of them has any chance of happening. And it isn’t trump resigning early.