The short answer is mass chaos.
The longer answer is we will seeing some non-controversial bills come up under suspension rules this morning. Around 10:00 AM, the Rules Committee will vote on the most recent set of changes that were placed in the bill overnight. Those changes (stripping or punting EHB mainly) are probably going to cost a quarter of a trillion dollars and could lead to millions more not getting coverage but they are not waiting for a CBO score. Once a special accelerated rule is voted on, the actual voting starts.
My opinion is that we are in good shape if there is an immediate blocking coalition of 23 Republican No votes in the first six or seven minutes. At that point, the internal logic of the Republican caucus makes voting Yes and seeing the bill Fail become a no reward position so we could see a cascade towards No. If we don’t see that, I would not be optimistic.
My gut feeling is that AHCA either passes by less than three votes or fails by more than fifteen. I can’t see the incentive structure for a narrow failure as the House leadership will hold the vote open for hours to arm twist a couple of hold-outs.
So call the House one last time.
GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, the Chair of the Appropriations Committee, says he is a “no” on the GOP health care bill pic.twitter.com/8aLRGzEIkZ
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) March 24, 2017
He is from New Jersey, part of leadership and as of this morning he was in the New York Times Undecided/Unclear column. So him moving to a clear No is intriguing.