In 4016, religious scholars could be delivering sermons on the origins of Festivus and it would feel just as real to them as Christmas feels to Christians today. Plus, there will be video evidence.
I am exceptionally cranky today. The counters came, and of fucking course they were cut wrong, and they were supposed to deliver my sink today, which was ordered and paid for three months ago and was delivered to their storage unit TWO MONTHS AGO to hold for us until we are ready for it, so of course they waited until this morning to inspect it before delivery and OF FUCKING COURSE it is damaged and they have to order a new one which will be here on Tuesday which means sometime in the spring of 2017. I’m also tired of going places where I have spent thousands of dollars, see multiple people standing there, and when you try to discuss something they fuck up, they all scatter in different directions while trying to avoid making eye contact. I’m not yelling at them, ffs. I’m not waving around a gun. All I want to know is when can this be fixed.
Also, I am broke as fuck. I mean broke. I’m not poor, and I have plenty of food and my bills are paid, but I have NO money left. I’m super excited for Christmas because it means my carpenter/handyman will be taking a few days off and I won’t have to sell plasma to pay him.
Why does nothing ever happen under budget? I mean, it has to have happened once somewhere, right?
*** Update ***
My new personal hero.
guachi
I feel you on the house. Bought a small 1941 house here in Augusta, GA. It needs work, but thankfully not too much.
We’ve (well, I’ve. Wife is doing other things) spent lots of time sanding baseboards, doors, and other assorted trim because I’m too cheap to pay for it and it’s unskilled labor I can do.
Up soon we have fireplace cleaning ($150), wood floors refinished ($2000?), new hardware for the transom windows ($500), new kitchen (just because) ($5000 for the appliances, double drainboard antique sink for free, + cabinets of $XXXX), new kitchen floor (real linoleum! $800).
Plus things like sanding and painting the exterior ($ – no idea!), fixing the back deck ($???), and other things I haven’t though of yet!
Miss Bianca
The answer to the second question is, “no” – at least, so far as I am aware. The answer to the first remains unknown – all I do know is that my friends in the construction trade have always told me that no matter how much money and time you have budgeted for the project, always count on its costing at least twice as much in both as you have budgeted.
I guess this is why I’ve always felt like when the time comes for building my “dream house”, I’m just going to say “fuck it” and buy someone *else’s* dream house.
Felonius Monk
The only thing that is ever Under-Budget is the Budget. Merry Christmas, John, or Happy Holidays, if you prefer. And welcome to the real world of home ownership. :-)
Major Major Major Major
The Festivus-in-the-future idea reminds me, as most things do, of Futurama. There’s a holiday special anthology episode I usually watch… today, actually. It has segments on Kwanzaa, Xmas, and, of course, “Robanukah, the holiest six and a half weeks in the robot calendar.”
The episode, set of course around the year 3000, says, “Kwanzaa traditions are quite ancient, dating back over 1,000 years,” and everybody oooh‘s appreciatively.
Roger Moore
Because people are shit at budgeting. People love to base their budgets on the assumption that everything will go OK, even though millennia of experience say that you always need to expect problems. Even people who budget for problems are too optimistic about how many and how big their problems will be.
donnah
I’m sorry and empathetic. Three days before Thanksgiving we had to have a water heater replaced: $1200. Today we signed a loan for a new furnace: $10,000. Ten fucking thousand dollars, during Christmas. When we have no money, that’s when shit happens. And we need a new car. Not going to happen now.
Ten thousand dollars.
Alabama Blue Dot
I do all my Amazon shopping through your link. I hope it helps a little. Happy holidays!
RandomMonster
C’mon, Cole, these can’t be all the grievances you need to air.
Roger Moore
@Miss Bianca:
I assume some of this is the old saw about projects expanding to meet their budget, no matter how ridiculously over the top the budget is. With houses, there are always more things you can do and better, more expensive ways of doing them, so there is always a huge temptation to expand the project partway through. It may be impossible to stay within budget, but you can at least keep it closer by learning to say no to expanding your plans partway through.
Shell
Only in the movies, as far as I can tell. In “Mr. Blandings Builds His Dream House”, the contractor returns about 12 dollars that he said he was over charged.
Major Major Major Major
@Roger Moore: This sort of thing makes me wonder if software developers would be pretty good at budgeting for a house or way, way, way worse.
Sonoran
Seasons Greetings John. May all your problems be first world and may they be small and temporary. POEGWTD.
frosty
Some projects come in under budget … Well, budget with change orders. We had an addition put on the house that was more or less on budget. The schedule was a year. It took the contractor 3 to get it done. There were months at a time when we wouldn’t see him.
Zinsky
So poor you can’t pay attention?
lamh36
So what ur saying is we won’t be getting our yearly Balloon Juice Christmas bonus?
Napoleon
Cole, that is the story of home renovation work (at least to my experience).
Mary G
Your commenters have been marveling at how fast your remodeling project is going. This stuff is why. And lots of time in old houses you have to pay extra because the standardized dimensions weren’t established when it was built. I had to pay double for a toilet because the opening was only eight inches from the wall instead of 10. Plus it took weeks to arrive. (I don’t know if those are the right numbers; one of the blessings of remodeling is, like giving birth, you don’t remember the pain after a while.)
Roger Moore
@lamh36:
I thought our Balloon Juice War on Christmas Bonus was paid out of Soros bucks.
NotMax
@Shell
Nitpick, but that was the well driller.
Tbone
Hey John, if they screwed up your counters, you should be able to get a discount on them. When we redid our kitchen a couple years back, home Depot screwed up our counters. I was able to get a 40% discount as a result.
Roger Moore
@Mary G:
It’s probably 10 and 12 rather than 8 and 10. I’ve been looking at replacing my toilets, and I know the standard size is 12 inch rough in, with 10 inch being a specialty item.
ThresherK
While I wasn’t looking, it became commonplace for Hallmark to offer cards for $8.99.
I never thought there was a “most I’d pay for that brand” for greeting cards, but here we are.
It wasn’t that incredible for the price. Maybe they ought to make a fancier name for that line so people won’t pick up a card, turn it over, and get sticker shock, a la the same way people recognize that Shoebox cards aren’t as fancy but will cost less than Hallmark.
(That is the most significant thing I’ve done all week. Except ferrying Spousal ThresherK to knee-appointments–she’s making good progress–and putting a beef stew into the oven.)
frosty
@Major Major Major Major:
Software- at least for schedules my boss says “double the time and increment the units”
An hour= 2 days
3 weeks = 6 months
“It’ll take me 5 minutes” = 10 hours
NotMax
Concentrate on the moolah saved by not paying Dad.
Mobile
@donnah: $1200 water heater? $10000 furnace? Where do you live? It sounds like you are bring ripped off big time. A good water heater should go for about $200. Installation , an hour or two. There’s not much to it. You need to get additional estimates. I just had an oil furnace replaced for $5000. Two top of the line heatpumps for $8k apiece. Had a new water heater installed for $300 including labor, a very nice job, here in central Virginia.
Major Major Major Major
@frosty: My up-the-funnel person (boss, I guess) comes from software, praise FSM, so we can have exchanges like this.
HIM: [relevant party] wants to know if it can do x.
ME: (thinks) …yes.
HIM: I’ll tell him no.
Roger Moore
@Major Major Major Major:
If Fred Brooks is correct, software people would be awful at budgeting. I wonder, though, how much of his complaints about software people being so far behind in budgeting wasn’t his own ignorance about how bad budgeting was everywhere else.
NotMax
Believe it was a fixer-upper cave in the rundown section of Lascaux.
ThresherK
@Major Major Major Major: Well, Brooks’ Law (adding labor to a late project makes it later) was invented for software development, I think. But it might not apply to some parts of construction; I’ll let others with more experience chime in.
ThresherK
@Roger Moore: Ya beat me to Brooks! Good on ye, sir.
Mary G
@Roger Moore: Thanks. I knew 10 was one of the numbers and the difference was two inches, but I guessed wrong!
Pogonip
@Roger Moore: I always figure everything will cost at least 3 times what I think it will.
MoxieM
mmmm @Mobile, the water heater is dead on (I had a dual fuel heat pump/electric installed 2 years ago–fabulous. But $1200 for the unit + installation…). Furnace estimate for me was in the $5-6K range. I’m in eastern Massatuckets, land of expensive repairs.
I don’t even want to think about how much it would cost to do J. Cole’s house up here. If a regular person could afford to buy it, which they couldn’t. Think, $5-700K minimum to buy, and an hour’s commute. I’ve done several old houses, and they’ve been in the hundreds of thousands, especially the one in the Historic District…never again. Me I’m getting ready to go condo.
Pogonip
@ThresherK: And whatever happened to Hallmark stores?
Mike J
@Roger Moore:
People who budget realisticly don’t get the contract.
Mnemosyne
Because it has been raining off and on all day, we’re getting Thai food for lunch. You know, so none of us are in danger of melting if we get touched by the water falling from the sky. ☔️
(I’m kidding — it’s actually becoming our office tradition to order takeout on the last day the office is open before we close for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. I just like the comedy value of it falling on the same day that OMG IT’S RAINING!)
Lee
@Mobile:
Here in North Texas $1200 for a gas water heater + installation is about right if you do it the way you are supposed to (plumber with permits).
I had mine go out (gas) literally a week ago & got it purchased & installed for $800. My handyman & I installed it after running down to Home Depot. We started at 7:30pm & we were done by 10:30 (it was 75 gal so the draining took awhile).
Elizabelle
JCole: that video you linked his hilarious.
The guy says he is dyslexic. And when they discuss what he had up the previous holiday.
Also, what is wrong about bell and end? It it a Briticism? Don’t know why the bobbies didn’t let those two decorations go.
raven
3 1/2 years, $20000 over budget. . . in the long run it ain’t shit.
Lavocat
Christ, you had me laughing so hard, I’m in tears!
This is like a Monty Python outtake fer chrissakes!
“It is a penis!”
“It is not!”
“Is!”
“No, it’s a bell! Isn’t a bell festive?”
“Yes, but a penis isn’t festive!”
Thank you, John for a much-needed laugh.
Mike J
@Elizabelle: A bell end is the head of a male member.
Elizabelle
@Mike J: Oh.
Urban Dictionary agrees with you. British slang.
ColoradoGuy
It was interesting watching a new house being built for us. The whole thing went together in about eight weeks, with the groups of sub-contractors rotating through about five new houses in round-robin fashion. Dig a hole for the basement, pour concrete foundation, build frame, floors and roof, attach outer skin and interior framing, put in windows and doors, add utilities in walls, cover interior surfaces with wallboard and paint, add kitchen and bathroom devices, paint, finish, etc, then sign off on the work. We had the luxury of living nearby, and inspecting the construction work several times a week. To my surprise, the builder was very appreciative of our inspections, and gladly did the re-work … if the mistake was found in a day or two, it didn’t delay the construction cycle, and that’s what the builder really cared about.
The dominant cost is labor, and it’s obvious why the builders use a semi-production-line approach. All of the teams are kept busy, and people can be quickly re-allocated if there’s a problem in one particular house (a re-work took two to three days, and there was a fair amount of it in our house).
Rebuilding an old house from the inside-out is the exact opposite. It seems like re-building an old car, retaining the body shell, while replacing everything else, one bad part at a time. It maximizes labor input, and there is no alternate allocation of labor if problems are encountered in one (or more) areas; instead, everything comes to a halt while costs pile up.
Houses, like cars, are complex enough that *some* problem (often expensive) arises in the process of construction or re-building. I can’t think any type of dwelling more complex than a tent in the woods that is free of problems during construction. (Even RVs and mobile homes, made on factory assembly lines, need QC procedures and re-work during assembly.)
My WAG is that re-building from the inside-out is about 2~5 times the cost of new construction, whether it’s a TV set, a car, or a house, just because assembly-line techniques cannot be used. Labor inputs are maximized because of the one-off method of the work, having to continually solve new problems on every part of the job, and task-dependency when one part of re-building or repair delays everything else.
Back when I worked in manufacturing electronics, our go/nogo decision on a circuit board was a half-hour repair time. If it looked like it would take longer to puzzle it out and repair it, the defective board went into the trash, and we pulled a new one off the production line. It was cheaper, and the experience was better for the customer, since they got a brand-new product in a slightly used case. It’s probably the same reasoning in building a new house … if any part of it is below-spec, it’s cheaper just to rip it out completely, and rebuild from scratch, preferably with a different team.
Living in the house under repair, at a guess, would probably stretch it out even more, not to mention safety concerns about living in a building that does not meet building codes … every one of those code requirements is there for a reason (because of prior lawsuits against builders, injuries, deaths, etc.)
BellyCat
From a good friend who is a contractor: If people knew in advance the actual time or cost of construction, they would never build anything.
NotMax
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the police are being rational.
Indonesian police vow crackdown on Islamic vigilantes
realbtl
Isn’t it cheap, on time and done properly, pick 2?
Major Major Major Major
@Roger Moore: TBH I think most of the problems with software budgeting are management/owners/requestors not understanding what computers are.
ColoradoGuy
The eternal triangle: Price, time, and quality. You choose the ratio.
trollhattan
@Lee:
Our corner of paradise now has gas waterheaters under ARB regs, which means low NOx emissions so it’s either a forced induction gas heater or electric. The days of hauling one home from Home Despot are over for us.
Another Scott
I heard Donnie says that his DC hotel came in early and under budget. Maybe you should have hired him to be your General Contractor – then maybe you’d be able to move in before August 2018…
Next time?
;-p
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who just threw you some shekels to help keep the hamsters fed here. Thanks for keeping this family together all these years.)
lahke
I agree that water heater at $1200 installed is actually cheap in Eastern Mass–sorry. Had two go out in one month and it was painful (I have a triple-decker, as they call them here).
My cost -overrun story is about scope creep, a very dangerous phenomenon. After all, while the walls are open to replace the plumbing stack, why not upgrade the heating? And it’s only another $6000 to run the lines to add a washer to each unit–it will make them more attractive to renters! Oops–the back decks are falling off the building? got to replace them before you become that landlord, the one with the dead tenants. Final bill? Three times initial budget. Oh my poor, loan-riddled 401(k) plan–now I can never leave my job.
However, I did raise the rent 30%. Eventually it will have turned out to have been the right thing to do.
burnspbesq
Sounds about right, Dan:
Link
Another Scott
@frosty: That’s good. :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who “recently” ordered some stuff from Amazon via official channels at work. It’s going on 5 months now… :-p)
patrick II
Just a suggestion, John. You should have taken a lesson from Donald Trump about working with contractors. Sign a contract, refuse to pay in full, keep the change. You would be much better off financially, claim you’re a billionaire, and become president of the U.S.A.
John Revolta
@ColoradoGuy: OTOH, fuck new construction. Wallboard, so-called, is an abomination before God and man. Fake wood is a Chinese plot. And don’t even talk to me about “low-flow toilets”.
Now let’s move on to the Feats of Strength.
Villago Delenda Est
It’s called a “money pit” for a reason, John!
burnspbesq
Obama just shivved Trump, big time.
The United States abstained rather than vetoing a Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlement policy.
This comes a day after Cheeto Benito personally leaned on Egypt to withdraw the resolution.
NYT has the details (can’t provide a link because i’m reading it on my iPad app).
Doug R
My wife had the Honda dealer do an estimate for replacing our worn trunk latch and remote cable when she brought it in for the air bag recall.
$500 for a 2003 civic. We’re going to let our mechanic do it when we have it in for “maint reqd”.
ThresherK
@Pogonip: I know two extant, another that used to be, in my area. From what I remember entering one after mid-November was subjecting yourself to a cacaphony of motion-sensitive decorations and blasts of potpourri penetrating the sinuses lik mustard-gas-in-WWI levels.
Ruckus
John
I once built an industrial project, on time, on budget, and working perfectly. Had to sue the bastard to pay for it and got an additional bill from my lawyer for $5,000. after my customer offered to settle for $5,000. less than owed and my lawyer said it was the best deal I was going to get. I took the money and never paid the lawyer. The firm called me every month for 2 yrs asking when I was going to pay. I offered them an alternative solution, which they rightly figured was anatomically impossible. Firm is long gone, which I had nothing to do with. One of the founding partners had been the MLB commissioner. Guess who one of their other clients was?
Ruviana
If you do wave that gun around we’ll call you Johnny 99. When I had my kitchen redone 3 years ago they dropped the countertop and broke it so I had to wait for 6 weeks for it to be refabricated. The different-sized sheets of plywood were a nice look for a while.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@burnspbesq:
I am pretty sure the intended target was Netanyahu. Trump was a bonus.
tobie
@burnspbesq: Just saw this. Good for the Obama administration. McCain is already out with a tweet saying something to the effect that this is a shameful chapter in US history, and the Washington Times has sent out an email with the headline that the US betrays Israel in the Security Council. God damn…these conservatives really know how to crank up the outrage machine.
Major Major Major Major
@Ruckus:
Hillary Clinton, obviously.
burnspbesq
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
I love BOGOs right before Christmas.
Baud
@burnspbesq:
And because the NYT is garbage.
Trentrunner
@burnspbesq: Trump just tweeted that, re the UN, “things will change of Jan 20.”
He’s such a total dick.
Butch
Our house was built in 1900 and moved to its current location by horse. Any home project we undertake (many have been done and many are still to go) takes multiples in terms of the time and money we estimate for it.
burnspbesq
@Trentrunner:
Can’t wait to see Haley trying to twist arms to repeal a resolution that passed by 14-0.
debbie
@Trentrunner:
Well, Trump was foolish to expect the current administration to do something they hadn’t done all along. And by the way, you ain’t the boss yet.
Brachiator
Man, I got grievances this year, and most of them are named Trump.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
This. It’s like you were writing about the F35. Vertical takeoff, carrier landings, best dogfighter, low level bombing/strafing, Mach 2……….. There is only so much that can be done with any one project. After a while it’s all wishful thinking, budgets and time gone way, way awry. And it most likely never works well at any of the things envisioned.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Man, I got grievances this year, and most of them are named Trump.
Man, I got grievances this year, mostly named Trump and all those who support him.
fixd for you
Ruckus
@Major Major Major Major:
Wrong side of the aisle.
I didn’t know this, it’s not my fault, I wasn’t there and it’s not my beer.
zhena gogolia
I haven’t been able to watch that Rachel Bloom “Holy s–t” video since the election, but right now I find it strangely cathartic.
Burnspbesq
Does this Florida Supreme Court decision count as a feat of strength?
Major Major Major Major
@Ruckus: oh, sorry–Bill Clinton, then.
(Adjust your snark meter!)
randy khan
@burnspbesq:
That would be a spectacle, but I’m guessing it won’t happen because the new SoS will explain that we don’t want to offend all of those Arab countries with oil. (As an aside, the obvious conflict between having an oil guy as SoS and the True Believer support of Israel should be interesting, too.)
Patricia Kayden
@patrick II: But John is a decent human being with a conscience. He’s no Trump. Thankfully.
Burnspbesq
@randy khan:
Hopefully the karmic perfection of having a bankruptcy lawyer as chief shill for a morally bankrupt policy isn’t lost on people.
Villago Delenda Est
@tobie: Two words:
Fuck Likud.
Hungry Joe
A few years ago we had a guy xeriscape our back yard. He finished it ten percent under budget, and even had a couple of items left over, which he gave me while apologizing for having miscalculated and bought them. What do you think — do I recommend him to everybody I know? Do I sing — yodel, even — his praises? I see him working around the neighborhood when I walk my doggie; as soon as she spots him she barks and starts lunging toward him, eager to get more of the love he gave her when he was working for us. So it CAN happen.
Corner Stone
Construction budgets are aspirational for the idiots paying for them and inspirational for the people charging against them.
Corner Stone
@Hungry Joe: After Hurricane Ike I had to hound the GC to bring back MY ladder and MY 50′ extension cord his crew had casually appropriated and walked off with when finishing* the job.
The only decent contractor I have dealt with in the last 15 years is a local plumber. That guy is solid and booked for weeks into the future because he shows up when he says he will and does what he agrees to.
He’s like a Plumber Jesus or some shit.
ETA* and I use the word “finishing” very, very fucking loosely. They left all kinds of things undone but at that point I just told them to GTFO of my house so I could move back in.
Baud
@Corner Stone:
Man, I’m still waiting for Jesus to come back. Maybe Trump will be the inspiration he needs.
Jay Noble
@Pogonip: Walmart and discount stores killed them on pricing and convenience.
The Internet killed them on the uniqueness front.
Corner Stone
@Baud: Only in that he’s like a mythical figure of legend no one has ever interacted with in real life, but his stories are still told to this very day.
jayboat
@Pogonip:
$9 greeting cards should help answer that one.
I once did some subcontract work for a guy who owned a Hallmark store in the small beach town we lived in. We were talking one day and he gave me a quote that stuck with me…
“There isn’t a single thing in my store that anyone needs.”
American consumerism defined.
Corner Stone
@Jay Noble: They sold a garbage product to a shrinking constituency.
p.a.
is cockbellend supposed to mean something? dick bellend? cock ring end?
p.a.
@jayboat: remember the SNL skits about the Scotch Tape Store in a mall?
Elizabelle
Oh, FFS. They just lie all the time. Is this even remotely believable? From the NYF Times:
Elizabelle
@p.a.: It’s a, yin and yang to last year’s Christmas decorations.
See comment 41.
geg6
@Miss Bianca:
Twice as much in money is just ridiculous and if your contractor friends consistently have that happen on their projects, I’d never hire them. New construction is easy and shouldn’t differ much from budget estimates at all, unless there are lots of plan changes and upgrades. On an old home like John’s, there will undoubtedly be unforeseen things, but I can’t imagine going more than 20-30% over budget. Now for the time factor, that can be a very flexible concept and can easily take twice as long as estimated.
My ex and I had a large home much like John’s and built in 1905. It actually came in under budget (we had access to a wide array of tradesmen due to his being the welding instructor at the county vo-tech high school) and we knew, mostly, what we were getting into. Our situation meant my ex was owed many favors from fellow faculty over the years and we called them all in. In addition, they taught the ex carpentry, electrical, plumbing, etc., so much of the labor was free or in kind work. The bad thing was it took us three years instead of the year and a half we thought it would.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Maybe Mr. Bocelli should show up at the counter-inauguration concert to clear his good name.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
Is there going to be a counter-inauguration? If I were a worldwide superstar, I’d sign on!
Elizabelle
@Baud: Not a bad idea.
There goes ever using the Trump jet again, though.
If they do do the counter-inauguration concert, that’s the one the A-listers will be vying to perform at and attend.
Corner Stone
Is there anything more American than a new series on food channel called Ginormous Foods?
I mean, I thought we had nailed it by claiming Guy Fiieddy to be a star of some sort, or maybe Man vs Food but this is clearly who we all are now.
Baud
@zhena gogolia: I hope so. Let’s call it Baud! Aid!
Baud
@Corner Stone:
Bigly Foods?
gorram
@Baud:
Blocked.
p.a.
@Elizabelle: thanks. i just call mine Archie.
zhena gogolia
Cole seems to have gotten into a fight with GG on Twitter. I have trouble reading Twitterese, so I’m not sure.
GregB
This Christmas season, please keep the economically disenfranchised people like Carl Palladino in your heart.
They are suffering so terribly in these troubled times.
Botsplainer
@burnspbesq:
America’s BFF ally Israel (the one which has nothing to offer America) finally gets what is coming to it and is howling.
This should have started happening sometime in 2009. Some things would look different; if that apartheid state were to be swept aside, that corner of the world would take on a more positive complexion.
Botsplainer
@Elizabelle:
Here’s the big question – if Nickelback offered to perform a full set at the inaugural for free, would the Trump campaign decline?
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
Nitpick: I think the ARB only deals with mobile polluters like vehicles, while it’s AQMD that manages stationary ones like water heaters.
germy
Carrie Fisher had a massive heart attack, and is now in critical condition.
2016 ain’t giving up, apparently.
BretH
DO NOT under any circumstances watch the “Property Brothers” show on HGTV!!! It will only piss you off in unimaginable ways.
Scenario: People buy a house for $350,000 and have a renovation budget of $90,000.
They want new floors, new kitchen and bath, all new walls with some openings knocked in, a couple skylights and of course it can be done, and on schedule. All it takes is free designs, crews of unknown workers working overtime, extra special attention taken to the smallest details, and of course new furniture and full staging when it’s all done for the special reveal.
Watching, I am torn between drooling and puking.
Irony Abounds
Gosh, you mean all those HGTV shows where renos are done quickly and at surprisingly affordable prices are not indicative of real life? Knock me over with a feather.
Look at the bright side, we have President Trump for the next 4 years!!!
Morzer
@GregB:
I am still recovering from reading the remarks made by the perverted little racist troll Paladino. What sick, vicious creature it is:
http://buffalonews.com/2016/12/23/carl-paladinos-harsh-2017-wish-list-causes-firestorm-social-media/
His statement, released in response to a general expression of disgust, claims inter alia that 1) it isn’t about race 2) he isn’t politically correct and 3) it’s a little “deprecating humor”.
ThresherK
@efgoldman: There are a few friends and relatives who are on my “real card” list, especially folks who are not-youngs.
And also I notice the “too many words” problem on many greeting cards now, especially for “to spouse” or “love (romantic)” categories.
Seems a large percentage of real cards I send are blank cards bought at museums, with stuff written inside that I plagiarize. But thanks for the suggestion. I recommend Someecards for people who like getting those things, if that’s your sense of humor (and it is mine).
Ruckus
@Major Major Major Major:
I think, but I’m not sure, my snark meter may have blown up. It happened on Nov 8. It wasn’t pretty and there was smoke and a very nasty repugnant smell. Not sure what caused it and I’ve looked for a replacement meter but was informed that the wait is 4 yrs.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
Sounds like you were hit by a deplorable series of events.
germy
@Ruckus:
You’re optimistic.
debbie
@Morzer:
I read about this earlier. I see he’s a real estate developer (I’m beginning to think they’re all assholes), but I wonder if he has any interests in businesses that I might be able to boycott.
Morzer
@germy:
Optimism would involve a precision meteor strike.
debbie
@Morzer:
Even the Trump transition team is calling out Palladino:
Patricia Kayden
@Elizabelle: I’m seriously expecting to hear that God Himself requested to participate in the inauguration but was politely declined by the Ever Gracious Trump.
This has become a parody and he isn’t even President yet!
Ruckus
@germy:
You’re optimistic.
AM NOT! You take that back!
@Morzer:
That would fix my snark meter right up. And how did you know what I wished for for Xmas?
Patricia Kayden
@Morzer: It’s “humor” wholly acceptable by Republicans and that’s why their people keep telling these racist “jokes”.
Hal
Ugh. Carrie Fisher had a “massive” heart attack on a plane and in the ice in Los Angeles. Fingers crossed!
Elizabelle
@Patricia Kayden: I know. You couldn’t write a novel or screenplay like this and have people not scoffing.
@debbie: That’s a plus. Palladino’s remarks, as excerpted upthread, were appalling. And very detailed, as though he spends time fantasizing in that manner.
Maybe it reduced the chance that hack will get any kind of plum appointment thrown at him.
Although: can he sing?
Morzer
@debbie:
It’s a measure of how far the Democrats have improved on some issues that he left the party in 2005, after 31 years of membership. He’s now a full-on tea-bagger, racist and foaming-at-the-mouth hate-peddler. Even the Trump transition team denounced his latest spew as “reprehensible”.
The Lodger
@Patricia Kayden: Apparently someone on the transition team didn’t like the optics of a plague of boils.
Elizabelle
@efgoldman: Actually, the remarks were so bad that this was an easy way to get an atta boy if the Trumpwhacks responded negatively. Trump himself would have deflected them (in public, anyway).
Morzer
@Elizabelle:
Right – this is about the Trumpzis taking the chance to get a little good publicity while remaining just as venomous and degenerate as Paladino.
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
He wondered in off the street wearing a nice coat so they figured he must be one of them. In actuality he is a mole, risking everything to be able to show that no one in the drumpf administration is really human. His premise is that we have been attacked by aliens. You can imagine this, given how their leader looks, talks and acts. I mean he couldn’t even figure out the sizing of the hands and look how he got a dead ferret to shed it’s fur onto his shoulder mounted spherical orb. Obvious alien, no self respecting human would make those mistakes. I may have just spotted the flaw in his concept.
Elizabelle
@Hal: I’m worried for her. The heart attack occurred in flight, somewhere between London and Los Angeles. (Presumably closer to LA, because the pilot could have landed at a closer airport, one would think.)
Not good to have such a delay getting care. Hope her brain received enough oxygen throughout.
debbie
@Morzer:
I’m picturing Michael Palin saying, “Nod, nod, wink, wink, say no more.”
CaseyL
I’d wonder if 2016 is massive karmic payback to humankind for being a species of nearly pure douchebaggery, except that the only humans coming out on top are more douchebags. (Generally speaking. Many perfectly fine humans are doing all right, individually.)
geg6
@Elizabelle:
Apparently, there was an EMT aboard, so at least she got some professional emergency care, as best they could in flight.
Elizabelle
From TMZ:
Morzer
A valuable analysis of how things went wrong in PA from Martin Longman:
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/12/23/102111/73
Hal
@Elizabelle: Sigh. From what I’ve read she wasn’t breathing for 10 minutes. I’m hoping for the best and maybe that report was wrong.
Zinsky
@Patricia Kayden: With a man as dense and as painfully self-unaware as shit-for-brains Trump, parody is not possible.
Mike J
@debbie: Some would even call him deplorable.
Baud
@Morzer:
Do people not realize that the TPP was Obama’s initiative? Never understood this.
Elizabelle
@Hal: I know. Does not bode well for that razor sharp wit.
Hal
Hey 2016. Please direct your wrath Carl Paladino’so way…
Ruckus
@debbie:
One has to admit that they know about deplorable. First hand knowledge.
Bet ol Carl once said something not so flattering about drumpf. Once on the shit list, always on the shit list.
ThresherK
@debbie: Wasn’t that Eric Idle?`
Elizabelle
@Hal: Return to being a male?
Isn’t that odd? Is Michelle too powerful, and that’s what that nitwit is fantasizing against?
Morzer
@Baud:
They probably do realize it – but in many ways Clinton ran to be Obama’s third term, so they might well have concluded that she was actually fully onboard with TPP, regardless of what she might have said on the subject. It didn’t help that she had a weak response when Trump went after her on NAFTA and her somewhat …variable… views on that trade deal. Nor did it help that Obama spent much of the past year trying to get TPP through, with the result that it got a lot of attention in the media.
Morzer
@Elizabelle:
I think it goes back to Jerome Corsi’s lunacy about Obama being secretly gay and having drug-fueled orgies and so forth. Racist morons gobble up this swill and pay for more.
hovercraft
@BretH:
It’s just a reminder for you that “reality TV” is not real. When I watch, I’m always amused that when the homeowners visit, Jonathan is working on the house all by himself. Who knew one guy could all that work in 5 to 7 weeks all by himself, and never go over budget, except when the homeowners add to the scope of the project, and even then most of the time he still manages to squeeze it into the budget.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I suspect about as many people could tell you what they didn’t like about TPP as could tell you exactly why HRC having a private email server was problematic.
Roger Moore
@debbie:
That’s actually “Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more.”\Pedant
Baud
@Morzer: Then I guess Biden would have lost too.
Ruckus
@Elizabelle:
Don’t bother even trying to dissect adult human stupidity of this magnitude. You’ll just get a migraine and want to throw up.
Another Scott
@BretH: “Property Brothers” seems the least realistic of the home improvement shows that I occasionally watch.
“Let’s buy this house that hasn’t been updated in 35 years by fixing up 3 rooms and spending $100k, while the siding is rotting, the roof is on its last legs, the plumbing is original, the foundation is crumbling, etc., etc.”
:-/
“Love it or List it” is a little more realistic in that there is invariably some huge expense that comes up so they have to drop something to stay on budget.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who never watched “Extreme Home Makeover” – maybe that was worse (“… Let’s surprise them and do it all in 7 days!!!”))
Morzer
@hovercraft:
You just have to know how to pull those magic bootstraps at the right moment.
raven
@Another Scott: I like the Canadian dude.
Elizabelle
@Ruckus: That’s true.
Back to the Festivus and Christmas spirit.
hovercraft
@Morzer:
We don’t have gorillas in Zimbabwe, but we do have plenty of lions, when assholes like the shitgibbons sons, and Minnesota dentists aren’t shooting them. He should go scope out the terrain where he wants her relocated, I’m sure I know some people who can leave him out in the middle of Wankie to find the perfect cave for her.
Ruckus
@hovercraft:
Not that hard to stay in budget if you make up the budget after the work is done when writing the script. Nor is it that hard to imagine it took 5-7 weeks, as long as you can tell TV time, you know where one hour is 44 min long.
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
This was brought up in a previous post, and I’ll repeat more or less what I said there: the WWC swing voters are most receptive to the Democrats’ economic message when they’re personally hurting. When the economy is going well, they start paying a lot more attention to the Republicans’ identity politics. If we want to win them consistently, we need to figure out a way of effectively reminding them that the Republicans will screw them economically every damn time.
Ruckus
@hovercraft:
I’ll pitch in for that GoFundMe.
Morzer
@Baud:
It’s certainly possible, but I think Biden is better at laughing away nonsense and defending his political record. My own guess is that too many people see Clinton’s resume and forget that having a good resume doesn’t make up for a lack of ability as a politician – and that’s why they get hung up on the unfairness of things more than they perhaps should. You just can’t dispense with political ability if you want to win elections and that’s where Clinton fell short. Maybe it’s to her credit as a human being, but it’s not really a quality you want in a party’s nominee for office. Biden, to my mind, has more in the way of political skills, although he certainly has some questionable moments in his past and I don’t know if he could get the party’s nomination. Judging by his track record, I’d guess that he couldn’t, if anyone else credible entered the race.
Another Scott
@raven: Aren’t they all Canadian dudes, except Hilary (who was also in Rocky Horror? ;-) David is pretty good, but the way the show is structured, he only “wins” about 1/3 of the time.
Cheers,
Scott.
Elizabelle
@Morzer: It’s sad that candidate skills and president skills do not overlap more.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
Perhaps we could set up a variant entitled GoFuckYourself. Paladino certainly sounds like a perfect candidate.
Baud
@Morzer:
If true, then it seems worrying about trade policy is a waste of time.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
It’s a series of questions.
What were you doing on such and such a date, and why were you having to do it.
Some suggestions.
1. Going to the bank to deposit the money you made last week from collecting aluminum cans.
2. Driving (or pushing) your 20 yr old car to the shop because you couldn’t afford a new Hyundai, or a 10 yr old Chevy.
3. Hoping that the pain in abdomen wasn’t a ruptured appendix or a strangulated hernia.
Morzer
@Elizabelle:
Indeed it is. I think we are going to increasingly realize just how rare Obama’s political skills were. The Democratic party seems to have an abundance of good, earnest people, who, sadly, have not a glimmer of political talent.
hovercraft
@Morzer:
I linked to that Booman piece in a earlier thread, my biggest quible with it was that he brushed right past misogyny/sexism as a major factor in the result. Any serious analysis of this must factor this in, or it is not serious. I understand that it is hard to measure, but it’s important that they at least try.
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
Truth in advertising. It might just sell. It’s never been tried but one never knows.
Morzer
@Baud:
Well, if your candidate doesn’t know how to cover their weaknesses, no amount of earnest policy analysis is going to matter. I suspect that TPP alone would not have mattered much – what really hit home was the link to NAFTA. I know that NAFTA is not the unmixed evil it’s often presented as being, but a lot of people see it as responsible for many of Middle America’s current woes, especially in the Rustbelt – and it was clear that when Trump went after Clinton on that issue in the debate, that she didn’t really have much of a response to him.
Baud
@Morzer:
She should have worn a strap on to the first debate if she wanted cover her weakness.
Suzanne
People go over budget on home renos because they don’t hire architects and figure things out beforehand, and they don’t get drawings or specifications. They hire contractors directly, who know how to build things, but not how to figure shit out. SO owners end up changing their minds in the middle of construction, which is the most expensive time to do it. Also, on bid projects, GCs bid as low as they can in order to fuck you later.
Commercial buildings come in under budget with some regularity.
Morzer
@hovercraft:
It might be that he thinks misogyny/sexism are serious issues, but doesn’t believe that they swung the election. I think, personally, that they might have helped Trump consolidate evangelicals and white men to some degree, but I’d be more inclined to give racism a primary role with the second group, if we are looking to what moral issues might have mattered.
Morzer
@Baud:
I have some doubts about the er…optics of that approach.
Baud
Hahaha. I just checked and, unlike Hillary, Biden actually voted FOR NAFTA.
debbie
@ThresherK:
Google agrees with you. I could swear I hear Palin’s voice though.
@Roger Moore:
I knew that, but was rushing because I’m also baking cookies. Shoulda just let them burn and proofread instead, I guess. ;)
Another Scott
@Morzer: She tried to address NAFTA -“manufacturing employment actually went up after NAFTA”, but couldn’t get through the conventional wisdom noise machine (and most people who were paying attention to that statement probably figured she was lying because, after all, she can’t be trusted, amirite?).
FRED – Manufacturing Employment.
US manufacturing employment fell off a cliff during W’s term. Was it W’s policies, China, a critical mass of automation, something else? Dunno. But she tried to make the case, and maybe could have made the case stronger, but unless voters have a way to hear the message, it’s like yelling in a cistern.
:-(
Cheers,
Scott.
FlipYrWhig
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah, I highly doubt that virtually anyone who says they care about “trade deals” has any idea what is or isn’t in said trade deals. AFAICT, “Trade” gave lefties who wanted to sound smart and informed a new way to deride Hillary as “corporate.” And for Trump it was the “deals” part rather than the “trade” part that had any significance, but for an alt-media eager for an ANTI ESTABLISHMENT POPULIST hot take, it became a way to rejuvenate the “Occupy and the Tea Party both hate bankers!” thing from 2009-10.
J R in WV
@Major Major Major Major:
I’m a software developer, and got really good at project estimating.
But I’ve built two houses, a big fancy one and a small ordinary one, and a 24×48 2 story shop, built to commercial standards. They were all over budget, the small ordinary house was the most over-budget, because of it’s remoteness. The shop came pretty close, and the first big house was over a little.
It took 2 or 3 years of pay-as-you-go to get everything in the house we live in finished and up and running. But that action was all downstairs, upstairs in the main living area Mrs J insisted that every switchplate was in place before we moved – all of 900 feet from a decrepit old farmhouse, it was a negative event for her. Moving from a dump to a brand new custom modern house! Folks helping out were amazed, and very understanding at the same time.
When she was a kid they moved a whole lot, and it gave her PTSD about moving. Really!
FlipYrWhig
@Morzer: IMHO “NAFTA” as a signifier means something like “the factories closed and there are a lot more Mexicans around than there used to be.”
Ruckus
@Morzer:
NAFTA was also a strong political link to Bill. She really couldn’t fight back effectively against it, not given her history and as you said the public unconscious understanding was that NAFTA was the root of all evil.
I used to be amazed that so many people have no idea what it takes to own a small business, and how many details they leave out of the equation. Make that a large corporation and that magnifies the issues of “not in my ballpark.” They seem to like to endorse or despise based on bumpersticker slogan length concepts. And of course it’s not just conservatives that have this issue. So a rational understanding NAFTA or TPP is going to be almost impossible for what I imagine is the majority of people from both sides. And I’m still skeptical of any large trade bill, because I know that there will be unforeseen pitfalls in there somewhere. But on the other hand I also know that leaving things up in the air usually doesn’t work as well. We all have our own interests, no matter how vile they might be.
hovercraft
@Elizabelle:
Right wing meme, she’s a man, he’s gay, and they stole the girls from someone, because obviously men can’t carry babies, and that’s why the girls look nothing like them. Which is confusing because I thought we all looked alike.
Morzer
@Another Scott:
She might have tried to address it at the level of policy, but that’s not going to cut it as a response to the visceral sense of aggrievement that many people have over NAFTA. Once those people hear Trump quoting her as saying that “NAFTA is the gold standard of trade deals”, they are going to need something better on the emotional level than a relatively anodyne fact-check coupled with a certain amount of waffling about what she really meant and what her views might be today.
Sure, the economic reality of America is much more complex than “NAFTA took our jobs” – but unfortunately that’s not what a lot of people believe. The NAFTA story is easy to understand, it has an obvious villain and it lets people off the hook for some of their own questionable life choices and investments of time. You can’t counter that without a strong narrative of your own and Clinton never really came up with one. Maybe she had too much faith in facts and the ability of the electorate to grasp them.
FlipYrWhig
@Another Scott: Deindustrialization in the Midwest happened under Reagan, and yet no one seems to view Reagan or Republicans as unforgivable accordingly. I don’t get why NAFTA would stick to Hillary Clinton via Bill, especially when it seems like Bill is more popular than Hillary _among the very people affected by deindustrialization_. I feel like it’s an answer in search of a question.
Baud
@FlipYrWhig: I think it’s because lefty Dems have offered it up as the root of all evil in an attempt to get the party to move away from free trade. It was a common theme at LGM, for example, and they are pretty sane over there.
The ironic thing is that they succeeded in getting Clinton to oppose TPP, but now that work is gone.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
I do think that Bill Clinton was much more of a negative for the Clinton campaign than an asset. I think he helped to damage her credibility in several areas and his record as president was a drag on her when it came to policy matters.
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
IMO, the biggest problem we’re facing is that Trump barely made it across the line, so there was no single thing that won it for him. It took a whole bunch of different things coming together to let him win. That makes it really easy for people to emphasize what they want to emphasize and ignore what they choose to ignore. Everybody is claiming that their pet issue is the straw that broke the camel’s back so they can push the issues they want to ignore into the background.
Baud
@Roger Moore: Agree.
hovercraft
@Another Scott:
Hillary is Canadian too, she was born there, but raised in England.
dr. luba
@Morzer: The Obama stuff is pure projection. Paladino, for those who don’t recall, was caught with horse bestiality porn on his computer/in his emails at some point. I think we can safely assume now that he’s into Herefords, too.
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
This I think is absolutely true. I think Clinton’s campaign suffered death by a thousand cuts and a lot of it comes down to poor strategic choices that took away just enough of the safety margin for Trump to slither over the line.
I also think that the Trump crowd are badly over-reading their “victory” as a mandate and that it will not end well for them or anyone else.
Elizabelle
@hovercraft:
You made me laugh. Oh my gawd, the idiocy packed into that interview. And that it’s decipherable.
Taylor
@FlipYrWhig: In the early 1990s, all the CEOs were in a pissing contest for who could “downsize” their companies the most.
In the 1992 election, Ross Perot spoke about the “great sucking sound” of industrial jobs moving to Mexico.
In the late 1990s, all the CEOs were in a pissing contest for who could “outsource” their companies the most.
Remind me what the Democrats’ counter-narrative was?
Singing Truth to Power
@Lavocat: Wait – a penis isn’t festive???
Another Scott
@Morzer: I get what you’re saying, but NAFTA and all the rest seems like post-hoc rationalization in many respects to me. Trump threw everything he could at everyone (“Ted’s dad killed JFK!!11”). BooMan and others looking for an economic explanation for why she lost seems to me (and many others) to be missing that many, many people had a visceral hatred for her which had almost nothing to do with her policy positions or what happened during Bill’s administration.
They hated Bill and Hillary before he even took office. The specific reasons came later, and were constantly evolving (“He’s a draft dodger! … She didn’t divorce him!!1 … She got e-mail!!11”) .
Yes, let’s learn as much as we can about why the election turned out the way it did, but let’s not beat our candidates up over things that cannot be changed. (We’re not going to turn the clock back and make NAFTA and DADT and Waco and all the rest not happen, etc.)
I agree that having a bumper-sticker slogan that works is vital. “Stronger Together” was a great one, but there were so many things stacked against her that she didn’t win with it.
Let’s not forget, though, that 80,000 votes in 3 states going her way would have made the difference.
Let’s also not forget that there was too much voter suppression and too many difficulties for too many people to vote.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: I agree — it seems to be a sort of badge of honor and/or shibboleth in those circles. But I strongly suspect that people who aren’t on the left and cite it as something that runs them the wrong way about Hillary Clinton aren’t seeing a stance on trade deals first and then using it to judge Hillary Clinton, but starting with antipathy toward Hillary Clinton and then amassing things that make them seem smart and rational rather than knee-jerk and emotional, and “trade” fits the bill.
And I even more strongly suspect that Trump will negotiate some sort of trade agreement that has all kinds of problems, is corporate, befouls the environment, harms workers, and all the rest, and the same people who voted for him and cited trade issues as one reason why will cheer the new deal as totally kickass because it was something Trump did and “created jobs.” Whereas if Hillary Clinton had sought to accomplish the same thing, they’d hate it, because they’d be led to hate it, because it’s Hillary Clinton.
Baud
The fact that we are even debating the history of NAFTA instead of the Bush or Obama legacies shows to me that we are continuing to play on the GOP’s turf.
FlipYrWhig
@Taylor: It was “an export-based economy creates good jobs in America.”
Ruckus
@FlipYrWhig:
And you are right, it is. Tribes don’t blame themselves for a problem, they always have to find a scapegoat. Krugman got it right, “A fact-constrained candidate wouldn’t have been able to promise such people what they want; Trump, of course, had no problem.” Part of modern society is learning that no matter how hard you try or work or wish or beg, life may not go your way, life is not really a whole lot better than it was 600 yrs ago. Yes we are mostly more comfortable, can easily travel farther, generally can look for a job more than walking distance away from home, don’t have to raise or kill our food, etc. But the world can still shit on you with grace and/or with the weight of a thousand planets. IOW life is still life. But now we have lots more things and people to blame for that shitty life. And more remedies, which most of the time, some/most of us will chose the wrong or worse one.
Baud
@FlipYrWhig: IIRC, Bill campaigned in support of NAFTA and won with that. Whatever one feels about it, it wasn’t a betrayal or a surprise.
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
That’s a very interesting graph. I see a bunch of things in it. On top of the very basic point that manufacturing is hit really hard by recessions, I see:
1) It used to bounce back fairly quickly after each recession- what Krugzilla calls V-shaped recessions- and would hit new highs if the next recession didn’t come too soon after
2) Starting with Reagan, it stopped its trend of regular, vigorous growth between recessions. It bounced back after them, but then tended to level out and wallow around.
3) Shrub was a disaster. Instead of recovering after his early recession, it continued to slump. I don’t think there was a single month in his presidency where manufacturing had job growth over the same month the previous year. The US lost over 1/4 of its manufacturing jobs between Jan 2001 and Jan 2009.
4) Obama has been better- there’s been overall job growth since we hit rock bottom, but not a lot.
Morzer
@Another Scott:
I don’t think it’s beating up a candidate to try and understand why they lost (or why they won, in happier cases). Over time, I’ve come to think that Democrats’ biggest problem in understanding why Clinton lost will be that they see the resume and assume that qualifications matter more than political skills. This is true in office, but not, I think, true when running for office. We are also running the risk of creating a dangerous mythology that primaries should not be hard fought, because they might damage the winner beyond repair. The truth is that any winner who can be so easily badly damaged in the primary is unlikely to win the general, because they clearly have significant weaknesses that are open to exploitation. If anything, we should want hard fought primaries to show us what candidates are viable and what the winner needs to work on for the future.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
I think so as well. I don’t think he should have been, given his actual record but in politics you have to go with the perceived record, not necessarily the one you actually have. Which is why people like Rick Scott or Scott Walker or even that moron in KS can get reelected.
Ruckus
@Singing Truth to Power:
Well I’d bet not all of them.
hovercraft
@Baud:
THIS.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
I can’t prove this, but my belief is that, under the generally good favorability ratings, a lot of people actually distrust Bill Clinton quite strongly and that a good part of their distrust of Hillary Clinton is bleed-through from their feelings about her husband.
Elizabelle
@Singing Truth to Power: Goddamn!
Now what am I gonna do with my Christmas tree?
Morzer
@Elizabelle:
I know the plural of anecdotes ain’t data, but I have never yet encountered a p.enis that was green and had spiky little branches.
Obviously someone will now produce copious amounts of documentary evidence to the contrary re: green penises with spiky little branches, because this is, after all, that sort of place.
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
You’re committing the exact mistake I was pointing out. If it really was the death of a thousand cuts, you can’t fairly point to any one factor as the thing that “a lot of it comes down to”. Poor strategic choices were a big factor that was directly under the campaign’s control, so they’re something the next campaign needs to look very closely at, but it’s not obvious that they were clearly more decisive than Russian hacking, media malpractice, or Comey’s interference, just to pick a few things that were completely out of the campaign’s hands.
One point I haven’t seen discussed as much is how much some of those factors were unique to the Clinton campaign, and how much they’re something we can expect to face as a permanent, ongoing disadvantage. IOW, was the hacking a one-time thing, or can we expect foreign meddling as a continuing problem? Was Clinton’s tough time with the media unique to her background, or will the Republicans be able to create the same kind of firestorm around any Democratic candidate? Etc. I don’t know the answer to any of these, but they’re something we really need to think and talk about well before the next round of primaries.
Morzer
@Elizabelle:
I know the plural of anecdotes ain’t data, but I have never yet encountered a p.enis that was green and had spiky little branches.
Obviously someone will now produce copious amounts of documentary evidence to the contrary re: green p.enises with spiky little branches, because this is, after all, that sort of place.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
Oh I don’t disagree at all. I’m just saying that I don’t think Bill earned that distrust, it was shoved upon him, by Newt and the republican party. It’s like we now elect presidents based upon how well they’d be jr high class president. Substance is useless, bullshit rules. That started in earnest with Newt, although conservatives have been doing this long before him. And democrats as well. It seems like JFK was the first who wanted to actually be taken seriously and if not him RFK was. It’s not that I think prior candidates were unserious, it’s just these two were making points that there were things that needed to be changed for us to have a better life and prior it was to have the same life.
Elizabelle
@Roger Moore: Thank you.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
You haven’t seen my FB feed.
Oh you meant actual one’s, not just morons that act like one.
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
I think that if the Clinton campaign had got their ducks in a row, Comey wouldn’t have mattered. Once they let things get close enough for the balance to be tipped by 40,000 votes going the wrong way across 3 states, well, pretty much anything might have done it. If you don’t get the basics done, which they clearly did not in critical areas, then death by thousand cuts becomes possible and probably inevitable.
I feel as if we saw a rerun of the 2008 primary in many ways.
Damned at Random
Nothing comes in under budget by design. I worked for the Navy (civil service) for 20 years and I got it from a (drunk) contractor once after a long negotiation, “Bid it low and watch it grow.” Nobody adds any margin for error, bad weather or any other mishap and they trust that once started the project will continue due to sunk costs. Nobody wants to abandon the investment.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
There are morons who act like green p.enises with spiky little branches?
Man, the kids and their cosplaying shenanigans these days!
Central Planning
I literally just finished watching the Festivus Seinfeld episode. Still hilarious.
Roger Moore
@Morzer:
And if the media had been halfway competent, it would have been a cakewalk. Voter suppression was big enough to cost Michigan and Wisconsin. Etc. You really can’t say “death by a thousand cuts” and then turn around and say “but this was the most unkindest cut of all”.
Morzer
@Roger Moore:
Once you screw up your basic strategy, it’s extremely unlikely that you can win. Tactical defeats will mount up until the ultimate outcome becomes clear.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
I don’t think he is. Morzer did say “poor strategic choices.” I think that what you are saying is that there are any number of things that can, will and in this case did go wrong and that mostly we aren’t in control of most of them. But an election is not just black and white. Should Hillary have known that NAFTA might be a strategic point? I think so, her history is directly attached to Bill, and like it or not NAFTA was not popular, good long term issue or not. Now could she do anything about her Bill “problem?” I don’t think so for two reasons. First, I doubt that she would see a Bill problem, for if it was/is the political liability that he is portrayed to be, and she is the shrew she is reported to be, she would have dumped Bill long ago. But she didn’t, she’s human and seemingly a good one at that. Second if she did anything against Bill in the last 2-10 yrs, that would have been used against her as well, as the republicans are not a political machine in the old sense of the word, they are a dynasty looking for a positive history.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
There are morons who act like green p.enises with spiky little branches?
Maybe I just live in a weird part of the world.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Roger Moore:
Purple band-aids ring a bell?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Ruckus: Voters want a “relationship” with the President, they’re not looking at it as a hiring decision which it is. You’re hiring someone to do a job, you’re not going to live with them.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
At least you haven’t sunk to mopping while naked.
Not publicly, anyway.
Morzer
@Ruckus:
I think it would be difficult for Hillary to separate her political identity from Bill’s at this point. They’ve been political partners for a long time and there was all the talk of two for the price of one back in 2008.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Morzer: That was 1992.
Viva BrisVegas
@Mike J:
It’s also a worthless male person, i.e. a Trump.
Morzer
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I remember it being revived in 2008. You’re right of course about 1992.
EBT
@Singing Truth to Power: Many years ago, back when I still had one, I circulated pictures of mine wearing a little tiny santa hat for the holidays.
Ruckus
@Morzer:
I don’t mop. And no I don’t have minions for that either. I will sweep and vacuum (when forced!) but I don’t mop. It may in the future be a bad relationship decision but so be it. It may also be that I would make the decision that a moping requirement would make a bad relationship, haven’t been forced to make that one yet.
Ruckus
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I said in a comment on BJ today that many people have no idea how to run/manage a business and one of the things that you have to learn is how to hire and just as important why and how to fire people. It has nothing to do with HR, it has everything to do with the person having the right personality and abilities for the job. We as a nation just hired the right person for the job. Unfortunately our system let us down and we got the person that has neither the personality nor any ability for the job. It is going to be a rocky road, at the very least. If you are looking for positive, at least you live in interesting times. In this case it’s not actually a positive but still 1 watt bulbs and all that.
Singing Truth to Power
@Elizabelle: I hate to ask how you were going to decorate it –
Singing Truth to Power
@EBT: I would so love to see a photo. When you say “when I still had one,” I am assuming that you meant a tiny Santa hat?
Singing Truth to Power
It says a lot about my horribly depressed state of mind that I, a news junky, would far rather talk about penises and santa hats than the state of the country. I do turn on the news, but the mute button is never far away. I love balloon-juice and all (well, most) of you.
J R in WV
@Mike J:
No, a bell end is what you slide the male member into. Really!
seaboogie
@Baud:
No longer even approaching my “10 free links” for the NYT. The New Yorker and WAPO, OTOH – may have to subsribe afterall. Hit my limit in the first week of the month.
seaboogie
@Lavocat: The proper reply to “your penis is offensive” would have been “Wot – you’ve never even seen my penis – we’ve only just met!” in the English accent in the vid.
sneezy
All of Donald Trump’s construction projects come in ahead of schedule and under budget. Just ask him.
nutella
@sneezy:
It helps with costs when you’ve got illegal Polish immigrants who live in the construction site doing the work.
JAFD
@Sonoran: Apologies, but my ignorant self knows not the meaning of ‘ POEGWTD’
Neither does the Urban Dictionary, and Google giveth a misprint on the ‘Official NFL Scoresheet’ for a Steelers-Broncos game on 10-14-90.
Bewildered am i. Please enlighten.