Why we can’t have success

The kids these days…

They’re more than alright… they, as a cohort, engage in far less dumb, risk seeking behavior than my cohort did at the same point in my life.

There are two major components of the decline. The first is that kids these days are far less stupid and idiotic and risk taking thrill seekers compared to twenty years ago. This would be Kevin Drum’s Lead hypothesis. As teenagers grow up with far lower exposures to known neurotoxins that impede judgement and encourage short term gratification, they use more judgement and think about the future a little more. They’re still teenagers but they are not stupid. Compared to my teen years, teens are having less sex. However over the past nine years, the amount of sex teens are having is fairly constant.

The other major component of the decline is far more frequent and effective contraception use. Guttmacher found that the entire decline in pregnancy rates among teens was the uptake in effective birth control utilization:

Sexual activity in the last 3 months did not change significantly from 2007 to 2012. Pregnancy risk declined among sexually active adolescent women (p = .046), with significant increases in the use of any method (78%–86%, p = .046) and multiple methods (26%–37%, p = .046). Use of highly effective methods increased significantly from 2007 to 2009 (38%–51%, p = .010). Overall, the PRI declined at an annual rate of 5.6% (p = .071) from 2007 to 2012 and correlated with birth and pregnancy rate declines. Decomposition estimated that this decline was entirely attributable to improvements in contraceptive use.

So the question going forward is whether or not we’ll see those trend lines break?

I think we will. The Federal government will go all in again on ineffective abstinence based misinformation. Essential health benefits will be redefined to exclude most highly effective birth control methods (oral hormones, IUDs, implants etc). Awareness of what works will decrease while access will decline. If we hold the amount of sex being had constant, that means more pregnancies.

I also predict that the older teens will see a lower bounce in their age adjusted pregnancy risk than younger teens. Older teens have some money, they have some knowledge of how to work the system and most importantly, the women who know that they are at high risk of unplanned pregnancy have had the ability to get long acting and reversible contraception (IUDs) to control their risk and maintain their autonomy. Younger teens in the Trump administration won’t have those advantages. I expect births to mothers under the age of 15 to increase at a higher rate than births to mothers at age 18.






154 replies
  1. 1
    rikyrah says:

    Yep. Here comes the abstinence only crowd 😠😠😠

  2. 2
    Baud says:

    The era of the Trump Baby is upon us.

  3. 3
    Gin & Tonic says:

    I’ll bet the house, though, that the President-elect required effective birth control from each of his three wives.

  4. 4
    satby says:

    @Gin & Tonic: bet the house he paid for more than 1 abortion.

  5. 5
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @satby: Good point.

  6. 6
    laura says:

    Abstinence only, and when that fails, blame only the slutty sluts because that’s how the game is played.

  7. 7
    Sasha says:

    Question for Richard. (I’d posted in a previous thread but didn’t get an answer.)

    Although I’m a beneficiary of the ACA and wouldn’t be able to afford insurance without it, I’ve a friend who’s not: He lives in Florida, makes over $60K (self-employed as a photographer, doesn’t qualify for subsidies), and the premium for him and his little girl have increased dramatically. Any suggestions to help his sitch?

    His BCBS ppo went from $800/yr to $1200+ per month. Moved to Humana, but still pays over $10K year.

    Any suggestions are appreciated. Thanx!

  8. 8
    D58826 says:

    Oh joy, saw on Politco that that the Bernie wing is planning on emulating the tea party and starting a DINO hunting campaign for establishment D’s that fail the purity test. Now I’m not saying the establishment wing has done all that good a job over the past few years but purity tests are not going to help. And Let’s not forget that in the primaries the purity pony got 3-4 million fewer votes.

    On a slightly more up-beat note. I also saw that Lindsey Graham will not support an effort to eliminated the filibuster. All it will take is a couple more Republicans who put country over party to vote no to any attempt to eliminate the filibuster and the democrats can at least block the worst of the Ryan/Trump agenda for the next two years. And if those same country over party Republicans vote with the D’s on the reconciliation package to destroy Obamacare maybe the worst can be averted. Up till now it has been a free vote to repeal since the legislation would be vetoed. When these self-proclaimed Christians have to vote for a piece of legislation that would take health care away from 20 million Americans, maybe they will have second thoughts. It would only take 3 to flip in a 52-48 Senate (that assumes the R wins the runoff in LA next month).

    Its still going to be a long 4 years but maybe some of the worst damage can be avoided

  9. 9
    Kay says:

    I keep thinking of Trump with those groups of accomplished young women who go to the White House- soccer teams, merit scholars- it’s just so gross that he’ll be ranking them on his 1970’s ” 1 to 10″ scale of attractiveness.

    Yuck. I don’t think they should have to go. It’s obscene.

  10. 10
    Baud says:

    @D58826: That doesn’t bother so much as long as everyone accepts the results of the primary, which is something Bernie had difficulty with.

    But what would impress me most is if they went into WWC districts and states held by the GOP and proved that they are the WWC whisperers they claim to be.

  11. 11
    Baud says:

    @Kay: Stay away from strangers and POTUS.

  12. 12
    Peale says:

    @D58826: I’m not really going to be opposed to that DINO organization. If it actually brings voters out in the long run, it will be ok. My guess is that it will collapse in a few years when the definition of purity falls and creates squabbling. Also too, most democrats actually are centrists. If the organization manages to shift more voters to the left, that’s not actually a bad thing. And maybe by actually having to convince voters for a change, they’ll learn how to make appeals using better words than “neoliberal” that don’t resonate outside their drum circle, and stop talking in ways that make working voters think that they actually Want to take their jobs away by destroying the companies they work for.

  13. 13
    MomSense says:

    It’s almost like access to reproductive health care and benefits that include contraception is effective at lowering the rate of teen pregnancy. UNPOSSIBLE!

  14. 14
    MomSense says:

    @D58826:

    Let’s call and thank him. Maybe place some calls to McGrumpypants, too. Who are the other potentially reasonable Senators?

  15. 15
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    I think we will. The Federal government will go all in again on ineffective abstinence based misinformation.

    Maybe, but,..

    Keep in mind Trump is a narcissist. I worked for a narcissist boss before and it was so bad I got him to fire me. With a narcissists everything you do is the worst fuck ever and the narcissist is the only competent one is the room. I am willing to bet that Christi just got sick and tired of listening to Trump tear him down and quit on Trump, Pence is some emergency thing with Christi just telling Pence he can ask Mr Perfect for the paper work and the whole Night of the Long Sporks was Trump, with a narcissist’s rage over being rebelled against, trying to punish Christi for getting out of Trump’s control by firing all of Christi’s choices.

    Very likely Trump staffers won’t dare sneeze without a written order from Trump himself, all 4,000 of them.

  16. 16
    Baud says:

    @MomSense: Inconceivable!

  17. 17
    Emma says:

    @Peale: aren’t you the optimistic one. I think their efforts will probably extend Republican control for a good ten more years.

  18. 18
    WereBear says:

    @Kay: They should boycott. Because why open up young girls to even a lecherous eyeball?

  19. 19
    Dr. Ronnie James, D.O. says:

    IUDs are becoming so cheap I’m hoping some states start picking up the tab.

    ps and of course your adbot shows an ad for a crisis pregnancy center…

  20. 20
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Kay: Oh gross, I hadn’t even thought of that! I hope they just don’t go at all. No reason athletes and scholars should have to be subjected to that dirty old goat leering at them and trying to cop a feel with his grubby, short fingers.

  21. 21
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @MomSense:

    t’s almost like access to reproductive health care and benefits that include contraception is effective at lowering the rate of teen pregnancy. UNPOSSIBLE!

    Worse yet, they used science to prove this, which in the eyes of the Evangelicals is Satan’s own barbed tallywacker and with TRUE Christian logic proving that teen pregnancies are highest ever (I mean just look at the girl the youth pastor knocked up, the slut, so checkmate liberials)

  22. 22
    sherparick1 says:

    Now that election is over, and they have won, the business press and TV is starting to notice that the economy is going pretty well and has been for some time, that given the current demographics of the country 2% to 3% growth is pretty good. http://www.calculatedriskblog......-full.html They are also realizing that they elected a group of morons to run the country who may well screw it up. http://dealbreaker.com/2016/11/draft-dimon/

    However, it will take time (and some key Goldbug appointments to the FED) to torpedo the Great Ocean liner that is the U.S. economy, so with the military and homeland security spending and the big tax cut. there will an unintentional Keynesian stimulus next year that may boost growth into the 3% to 4% range which may make the moron popular for the next 12 months other things being equal (and those things might not be if the appointments to national security spots go to grifters like this lady. http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....18151.html)

    God help us, although perhaps the FSM believes that it is time for the U.S. to get it “good and hard” and has sent Trump as the means of our destruction.

  23. 23
    gvg says:

    One of the things the purity leftists leave out is we already tried their strategy awhile back and it was a loser. Democrats lost badly. so we went to the center to start winning again. I see no sign it’s time to pull hard to the left. If we build on a bunch of wins in a row, then we can move. It also relates to the reason we don’t have a bunch of young well known leaders and had to go old this time (again). there have been too many republican dominated periods in the last 30 years and our potential leaders lost elections and aren’t remembered. W had both houses for awhile. Regan and Bush was a long period in politics. I remember Bill Clinton as being forced to compromise because he didn’t have the votes to sustain veto’s on think like Glass Segal and other issues. Don’t ask don’t tell and welfare reform were making things less bad than the “conservatives” wanted too. Liberal was a bad word. The state legislatures are still dominated by Republicans. In fact one of the reasons I think they have become so ignorant is that while they were accumulating power, a lot of stupid people jumped on their train for power which they accepted because they needed votes, and then those crowded out the actual thinkers. I am talking about a lot of lower tier new politicians who i remember running as R’s who seemed like parrots. they came out of the woodwork after the Berlin wall fell and governments were cutting spending.

  24. 24
    Peale says:

    @Emma: yeah. I know. Im naive. What they will do is drive the donors out of the party before realizing that running a campaign based on models developed for Vermont doesn’t work in Wisconsin against Koch money,

    But I dream. The sanderistas came out of nowhere. Maybe if they stayed around they’d lean that you actually do need to meet with Other people to win. But if they insist that they are white working class voters and only those votes matter, screw those SJW distractions the Corporatists keep up on…well they will find that they aren’t going anywhere.

  25. 25
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @gvg: I don’t see it’s all that hard. Just look for the stuff the moderate right wants that the left wants to, offer that, do it when in office and once the moderate conservatives get the Democrats are about good government then the more liberal stuff can be done. I mean hell the common theme among Trump voters was the voted for him because he is an outsider in the Republican party so lots of them are taking their baby steps away from the Conservative Movement now.

  26. 26
    Barbara says:

    @D58826: I would think that anyone who publicly opposed Trump should be in favor of retaining the filibuster. That would be Sasse, Flake, Collins and Graham. Toomey was sufficiently lukewarm that he too should expect to be the target of Trump style revenge and better off knowing that the Senate has a few more checks against the executive. However, IMO, Sasse is toast in the next election cycle.

  27. 27
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @Peale: .

    But if they insist that they are white working class voters and only those votes matter, screw those SJW distractions the Corporatists keep up on…well they will find that they aren’t going anywhere.

    Put it another way – when in office you don’t get to chose what part of the population you are governing for.

  28. 28
    Peale says:

    @gvg: yep. One of the things they’ll discover on their quest to champion the working class is that there are things called suburbs. It’s not just city vs, country. A lot of those compromises were popular in the suburbs.

  29. 29
    cmorenc says:

    In the deliciously ironic tidbits category –
    My younger daughter got her B.S. degree in nursing at a nominally Catholic-affiliated college – and a major assignment for one of her classes was to put together a presentation advocating some health-care policy improvement at the hypothetical future hospital or community the student would be working in, using either power-point slides or poster-board style presentation. Her topic? Advocating prevention of adolescent pregnancy through increased use of LARCs (long-acting reversible contraceptives) such as IUDs. She got an A+ from her prof. (Her prof had to approve each student’s proposal for choice of project before they proceeded, so she had the green light to present this topic). Fortunately, this particular school’s Catholic affiliation is loose and progressive-leaning enough that her professor didn’t feel inhibited from approving it – but nonetheless I won’t disclose the name or location of the school, to avoid risk of drawing unwanted attention from the Catholic hierarchy.

    BTW: she chose to present poster-style, and we still have the huge multi-panel poster-board she made for that presentation up in her old room – I grin every time I look at it. She really did a high-quality piece of work distilling scholarly research into a compact, articulate presentation such that it would likely have impressed even our guru Richard Mayhew.

  30. 30

    @Sasha: 1st pass — get the kid covered — see if she qualifies for CHIP

    Then maybe BRONZE and the right set of sacrifices to Apollo for good health?

  31. 31
    rikyrah says:

    @Baud:

    But what would impress me most is if they went into WWC districts and states held by the GOP and proved that they are the WWC whisperers they claim to be.

    But, that would be actual work.

  32. 32
    D58826 says:

    @MomSense: Graham was the only one mentioned but there were a couple who refused to endorse Trump right up to the end. Susan Collins might be one. Sen Flake of Az might be another possibility. Even McCain who should have little love loss for Trump might be another. Again Graham is the only one who has gone public.
    @Baud:
    @Peale: The problem I see is that Bernie bro purity tests are going to be applied that most loyal democrats would fail. Most democrats and even most of the rest of America are fairly centrist. Over time they have bent in a progressive direction but not with the leaps and bounds that the Benierbros are demanding.

    One of the purity tests is 100% opposition to everything that Trump says and does. Now on the face of it that seems like a reasonable position since Trump and Ryan represent all that democrats oppose. But what if Trump offers a reasonable infrastructure program? Should the democrats filibuster that in the Senate just because it was Trumps idea? Or if the democratic leadership can get some of his worst ideas watered down is that a bad thing? The bill is going to pass so maybe better only 50% bad than 100% bad. Or if Ivanka can convince him to support the full range of comprehensive contraception and sex education? Other than infrastructure I’m not saying any of this will happen but if it does the DINO hunters want to cut the nose off the purity pony just to spite it’s face.
    Admittedly I would have to hold my nose to vote in favor of a Trump idea but America will survive long past Trump. If purity pony opposition cements Trumpism then we haven’t gained very much. In a nutshell – strategic opposition to Trump but willingness to make some tactical agreements where possible. I’m trying to see the wisdom that that fellow with the funny name has been talking about the past week. Or as his gracious first lady says when they go low we go high. It will be painful but I think.

  33. 33
    Quinerly says:

    @satby:
    There was a rumor of someone who was to come forward re an abortion days before the election. One of those bombshells a NeverTrumper was hinting at. Quite honestly, I’m not sure it would have made a difference

  34. 34
    rikyrah says:

    @D58826:

    Where are they gonna get their money to fund it?

  35. 35
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Barbara: To the (very small) extent I know Flake I’d probably disagree with him on almost every aspect of policy, but I’ve grown to have a grudging admiration of his moral convictions.

  36. 36
    Quinerly says:

    @D58826:
    I guess you read this AM that Cruz is being considered for the Supreme Court. I know Trump is famous for his grudges….having a hard time wrapping my mind around what his actual standard is for the grudge. Seems scattered like everything else.

  37. 37
    gogol's wife says:

    On the topic of the dead thread down below: So far, AARP is useless. I’ve been bounced around to 10 different people, all either clueless or trying to sell me something. Try this number: 202-434-3720. I’m supposed to get a call back from them about what their plan is. If I don’t get a satisfactory reply, I’ll be cancelling my membership and getting the word out that they are of no help.

  38. 38
    Betty Cracker says:

    @gvg: I don’t think we should buy into their framing either. The fact is, PBO swung the pendulum back to the left very successfully. If left in place, the ACA would have pushed trillions of dollars from the top to the bottom and already has engineered a substantial downward transfer in the face of implacable opposition. Yes, it was built on the shitty market-based system we had because that was all we could get, with similar compromises to make tax policy more progressive, rein in Wall Street, etc.

    And let’s also not forget the incredible progress we’ve made on social justice, like marriage equality and moves toward criminal justice reform, all of which are now at risk. And let’s acknowledge that Hillary Clinton’s platform was even more progressive. We should fight these “whole loaf or nothing” nitwits tooth and nail for control of the party if they come at us. I consider myself to the left of the party’s mainstream too, but I’m also a grown up who doesn’t believe in magickal bird anointings.

  39. 39
    Elizabelle says:

    @Quinerly: Do you think Cruz would be confirmed by the Senate?

    I do not. Senatorial courtesy and all, he’s an asshole. Probably just some sop to the conservative media.

  40. 40
    D58826 says:

    @Peale:

    But if they insist that they are white working class voters

    Weren’t most of the people in Bernie’s big events young, white, middle/upper class college age?

    I have been saying it over and over you are not going to stand a chance of winning in any of the red states with a Liz Warren style candidate. She might not even win in a blueish PA or VA. But the purity pony rules will drive all of the blue dogs out of the party, There are not enough ponies in enough states to win elections at any level.

    I do find it ironic that the GOP wants to pass the kind of Keynesian legislation that was SOCIALISM when Obama proposed it

  41. 41
    WereBear says:

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Satan’s own barbed tallywacker

    I love this so much I will be using it at every opportunity. Thank you! Who says we can’t have Christmas!

  42. 42
    gene108 says:

    @D58826:

    Oh joy, saw on Politco that that the Bernie wing is planning on emulating the tea party and starting a DINO hunting campaign for establishment D’s that fail the purity test. Now I’m not saying the establishment wing has done all that good a job over the past few years but purity tests are not going to help. And Let’s not forget that in the primaries the purity pony got 3-4 million fewer votes.

    Bernie did convince or reinforce the belief that the Democratic Party is a tool of the 1% and most be dismantled, in order to make it represent the will of the people.

    This includes, probably, no campaign donations over $27 or something.

    Basically, unilateral disarmament in the face of Republican aggression.

  43. 43
    Lolis says:

    Why is everyone pre-preemptively surrendering everything we fought for? I don’t get the defeatism. I think things will be awful, but we can mitigate the degree of awfulness.

  44. 44
    Mike R says:

    @Barbara: As a Sasse constituent that seems highly unlikely. Have you heard of someone that might challenge him. He appears to be very ambitious so he might take a better offer.

  45. 45
    Quinerly says:

    @Elizabelle:
    I really don’t know what to think anymore. True story😊

  46. 46
    JPL says:

    @Elizabelle: I read that he is also being considered for AG. In that case, he would receive all the republican votes in the Senate. They want him out of the Senate, and tough for the rest of us who have to live in a country that investigates its citizens.

  47. 47
    MomSense says:

    @Baud:

    Seriously he is the type person about whom the warning “stranger danger” was coined. How are we coming on Santoruming his name?

  48. 48
    hovercraft says:

    @D58826:

    Oh joy, saw on Politco that that the Bernie wing is planning on emulating the tea party and starting a DINO hunting campaign for establishment D’s that fail the purity test. Now I’m not saying the establishment wing has done all that good a job over the past few years but purity tests are not going to help.

    I disagree about the establishment not doing a very good job over the last few years. They gave us Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and many other things, could they have done more, of course. Tell me one thing Bernie and his cohorts have given us the last 30 years, just one. If memory serves, they were against immigration reform because it wasn’t good enough, they initially baulked at Obamacare because first it wasn’t singlepayer, then because it didn’t have the public option. The form of government we have was designed to be slow and incremental, and that is the governing style we get. The Ben Nelson’s and the Plain state democrats were not on board for those things, you had Lieberman pushing back, so they were never going to pass. Zepher Teachout (sic), lost and she was as pure as you can get in a state that’s solidly blue, so tell me where are these pure democrats going to run and win? Bernie is not a democrat, and if he wants a liberal or socialist party he should say so and try to make it a viable national party. One of the great things about the democratic party is that when we say we are a big tent party, we actually mean it. Claire Mckaskill holds positions that I disagree with, but on the big things we are on the same page, Al Franken would get slaughtered running for that seat, but she’s won it twice. So Bernie can just go off and fuck himself. If he wants, he can run a bunch of independents, afterall look how well it’s worked for Maine, Governor Paul LaPage is doing a bang up job.

  49. 49
    Quinerly says:

    A bit off topic for this thread but I posted below as thread was dying. Yahoo, Fox, Business Insider reporting that Pence is purging all lobbyists from the transition team. So I guess Trent Lott is out ( he and Ed Meese had signed on this week). Curious how this affects Giuliani and Flynn, etc….perhaps they will just redefine what a transition team is. Maybe the actual team is only Pence, campaign people like Bannon,and family.

  50. 50
    PPCLI says:

    @Elizabelle: senatorial courtesy only goes so far. I remember when John tower was nominated to be secretary of defence by Bush 1. The conventional wisdom was he would sail through because of senatorial courtesy etc. but the problem was the senators knew him very well, including all about his womanizing and apparently out of control alcohol abuse.
    I don’t think Cruz has either of those problems, but the senators clearly know about his out-of-control being-a-flaming-asshole problem

  51. 51
    Quinerly says:

    @JPL:
    I have thought from the beginning of this nightmare that Kobach will be AG.

  52. 52
    PPCLI says:

    Abstinence education won’t be the only problem. The Republicans won’t just be banning abortion once Roe v Wade is dead or gutted. They will start redefining IUDs in the morning after pill as causing abortions.
    Cruz was pretty slick on this during the primaries. He talked about how much he was in favour of birth control, mentioning condoms, but when he was asked by some journalist to say what he actually counted as birth control and what not, he glided past the question and the journalist didn’t press him.

  53. 53
    WereBear says:

    @sherparick1: You mean when Gozer asked, “Choose the means of your destruction?” somebody thought of Trump?

  54. 54
    D58826 says:

    @Quinerly: Have seen that batted around for the past couple of days. Now I suspect most of Trumps appointments will be bad but I wonder if some (Bolton, Palin) are just Trump folks trolling the rest of us so that when the real names come out we can be fooled into saying ‘oh that one isn’t as bad as Palin.

    On the other hand with Gaffney on the transition team maybe even Palin doesn’t look so bad

  55. 55
    D58826 says:

    @hovercraft:

    disagree about the establishment not doing a very good job over the last few years.

    I was thinking more along the lines of maintaining control of the down ballot offices. The D’s have gone from the Congressional lock for a generation in 2008 to totally out of power in DC and have lost over 900 state legislature seats. The GOP has complete control of 33 state legislatures, one more and they can call an article V constitutional convention and then it will be time to move somewhere else. I understand Easter Island is nice in the spring.
    But I do agree with the rest of your comment

  56. 56
    RaflW says:

    @MomSense: I was at a conference over the weekend and a fellow attendee is a well-versed political type in Arizona. He says that on SCOTUS at least, maybe a few other things, Jeff Flake is worth our attention.
    He’s a Mormon, and mormons have memories of what it is to be a religious and persecuted minority (and not in the phony way that fundamentalists are crybabying about not being able to say ‘no cake!’ to homos).
    Anyway, the suggestion is he could be appealed to to push for just a normal very conservative SCOTUS nom, not an idiot who would run the constitution thru the shredder. We probably have to be prepared to accept that the nominee will be quite conservative. But folks like Flake might be willing to help push for at least competence in respect to the law.

  57. 57
    Peale says:

    @D58826: Yes. If they go apeshit on Sherrod Brown for supporting the renegotiation of NAFTA…well what yah gonna do. If the organization start calling Sherrod Brown a sell-out, they aren’t going anywhere. If they want to run against “Infrastructure Spending”, they aren’t going to get out of the primaries unless the “neo-liberal” “corporatist” who “signed a bill to bring jobs to his state” is unpopular with democrats for other reasons.

  58. 58
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @rikyrah: Here comes Bristol Palin getting paid big bucks to tell girls how to keep from doing what she did, i.e., pregnant two times out of wedlock. Wheeeeeee!!!!!

  59. 59
    Steeplejack says:

    @D58826:

    How pure can Bernie be when he’s not even a Democrat? Don’t you have to be a member of the party to purge the party? If not, let’s all get to work on purging the GOP. Gotta be easier than, you know, voting them out.

  60. 60
    D58826 says:

    @gene108: I have a sneaking suspicion that in 5-10 years when all of the dust has settled and the campaign documents of those fortunate enough not to have been hacked come out we will discover that Bernie’s role in last week’s loss will loom very large. It won’t be the only factor but it might have been the one that made it impossible for Hillary to get past the rest. Comey will probably be a strong second.

    In spite of his ‘I don’t care about the e-mails’, he gave Trumps crooked Hillary a bipartisan gloss. If his goal was to destroy the democratic party has had made a lot of progress.

  61. 61
    Steeplejack says:

    @Baud:

    But what would impress me most is if they went into WWC districts and states held by the GOP and proved that they are the WWC whisperers they claim to be.

    Good point.

  62. 62
    Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire) says:

    Having been a teenager twenty-some years ago (I turned 16 in 1994) I can tell you, ancedatally, even then, there weren’t many girls getting pregnant in my school. Maybe 3 the entire time I was in high school. About 400 kids attended my high school then, with about 100 students in each grade. We all knew about the risk of AIDS and pregnancy, so many of my peers used condoms. Some of the girls I knew were on contraception. Their parents even got it for them. But then again, I grew up in NY, and received pretty comprehensive sex education- none of this abstinence only crap. Plus, my mom was always pretty open about letting me know that, while she hoped I would wait until marriage, she would get me whatever I needed. But, again, I grew up in a blue state.

    Kids growing up in abstinence only states are well and truly screwed. Back in the 90s, Planned Parenthood wasn’t demonized like it is today. Heck, even my mom has received care there before, well after she stopped having kids. Good luck to a young lady or man trying to get help at Planned Parenthood in places like Texas. This is why parents need to be up front about sex education with their kids, and not just expect them to figure it out or leave it to someone else to do it. If you have children, and you can’t bring yourself to explain sex and the potential consequences, then don’t have kids, period. You are setting them up for failure.

  63. 63
    D58826 says:

    @RaflW: True on the Morman thing but Trump still won Utah. That was supposed to bethe one state that would vote for, whats was his name McMillan

  64. 64
    Quinerly says:

    @D58826:perfectly said at #60.

  65. 65
    Ohio Mom says:

    @gogol’s wife: Thanks, because I started that.

    I didn’t call AARP but the other day I tried doing something similar with the national disability advocacy organizations, asking how they were going to fight any cutbacks to Medicare and Social Security (Medicaid doesn’t just provide health coverage to the disabled, it is also a source of money for basic living expenses. SSI payments aren’t enough to live on).

    I never got past the telephone trees. I tried an old trick, calling the development offices but even they don’t answer the phone directly anymore (that’s on the theory that they never want to miss a potential donation. It’s an approach that used to work for me but I guess they’ve wised up).

  66. 66
    Peale says:

    @Steeplejack: They are going to have the same problems that they had back in the 1980s. Their focus is going to be on manufacturing jobs that they really don’t want to have themselves, and would hate to live next to. What they need to do is focus on the jobs that people have (the dreaded “service work that has ruined everything”) and not the workers that they want to have. They aren’t going to make inroads if they value one kind of work. it really is kind of tough when your white working class is a nursing assistant and a food service worker with two jobs and two kids who need two cars because schedules don’t work.. If your attitude is that that those jobs aren’t real because they are service jobs, you aren’t going to win over those people. Because you won’t even understand what the issues are and what the solutions ought to be. You don’t actually impress lots of people by feeling sorry that they have jobs.

  67. 67
    Another Holocene Human says:

    You mean declining morals, secularism, and the demise of the black family aren’t to blame for teen pregnancy,?

  68. 68
    mai naem mobile says:

    @Mike R: Sasse and Flake are playing the really long game. I was reading Sasse’s personal Twitter feed the other day. I read his Wikipedia page. He looks a little goofy but I can totally see teabaggers voting for this guy even after the shit hes thrown at Trump,

  69. 69
    hovercraft says:

    @Kay: Talk about White House interns may take on a whole new meaning. How many parents will still happily send their daughters off to be interns in it”s White House, because the media and Hillary paid all those women to malign him.

  70. 70
    Ksmiami says:

    Bernie sanders can go to hell. It’s been proven that long cong contested primaries damage the front runner. He has no history of legislative success and cares not one whit about actual people over ideology. Ef him

  71. 71
    WereBear says:

    @Quinerly: Quite honestly, I’m not sure it would have made a difference

    Nothing would have made a difference. NOTHING.

    Trump truly is a Manchurian Candidate. Only instead of the commies brainwashing the candidate, the Right Wing has been brainwashing the Christopath voters. Trump said it himself: he could murder someone in front of them and they would cheer.

    We have to concentrate on the separation of church and state, and let the damn chips fall where they may. They may scream “religious freedom” but it is only to cover up the fact they are hogging it all to themselves.

    That is illegal in this country, and it’s time we remembered that.

  72. 72
    Quinerly says:

    @WereBear:
    No argument from me about the points you make.

  73. 73
    Quinerly says:

    @Ksmiami:
    I’m with you.

  74. 74
    Ohio Mom says:

    I know this is the wrong thread but are we still collecting responses from our representatives re: Support for Medicare privatization? The Ohio tally is:

    Senator Rob Portman (R) and Representative Brad Wenstrup (R): Don’t know (yeah, like I believe that, Both of ’em voted for it in 2015. BTW, Wenstrup is Mean Jean’s successor).

    Senator Sherrod Brown (D): NO.

    I also told Brown’s office that I wasn’t completely happy with him reaching out to Trump but I kinda understood. I figure the guy’s up for re-election and Ohio did just go for Trump. Maybe his plan is to give Trump enough rope….

    If Kay’s around, I’d love your take on this.

  75. 75
    Kay says:

    @PPCLI:

    He talked about how much he was in favour of birth control, mentioning condoms,

    That’s entirely consistent, though. They have a problem with women having agency and control..

    Scalia always spit out the word “demand” with abortion- abortion ON DEMAND. His whole thing was “STFU, women”.

    Trump’s comments on abortion most remind me of McCain. They just wave the woman away. She disappears. Oh, they’ll go to another state or die in childbirth, whatever, don’t pester me with details McCain was mighty suspicious about whether the bitches were lying about “health of the mother”. He wants proof of injury.

  76. 76
    Barbara says:

    I suggest that everyone bookmark and provide liberal access and publicity for scarleteen (dot) com. It’s still out there, a great resource for “inclusive, comprehensive, supportive sexuality and relationships info for teens and emerging adults.” It won’t help pay for birth control but it will provide a free corrective to abstinence based bullshittery that is even more bullshittery when coming from anyone named or working for or with Trump.

  77. 77
    WereBear says:

    @gogol’s wife: Thank you, good to know. We can cancel ours if so.

  78. 78
    sherparick1 says:

    Yes, and remember, it is never about race.

    http://www.indyweek.com/indywe.....id=5086119

  79. 79
    Steeplejack says:

    @Peale:

    This is a common problem in the media. Chris Matthews in particular drives me nuts, because he’s always name-checking the “working class” as if it’s still burly (white) guys with hard hats and lunchpails heading into the factory as the whistle blows. No, it’s women hoping they get off their service-job work shift in time to get to their other job on time.

  80. 80
    D58826 says:

    So just from the comments on this thread and a few more I’m about to list Schumer and a fragile/changing coalition of country over party republicans may act as a check on Trump/Ryan. IIIRC Ben Sasso of Ned. did not endorse Trump. Toomey of PA (who was willing to work on gun control IIIRC) did not, even though he said he would vote for him on Nov 8th. Maybe McCAin on some issues since he is probably in his last term and has NMFTG. I googled ‘miked lee endorses Trump’ and got a Chicago Tribune article to wit:

    There are a number of Republican senators who either never endorsed Trump or unendorsed him — from conservatives like Mike Lee of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska to more moderate members like John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Rob Portman of Ohio.

    So if Schumer plays his cards right he could actually have a working majority in the Senate to at least keep the filibuster. And for those old enough to remember Reagan got a good bit of his legislation passed because he had a working majority in the democratically controlled House with blue dog democrats (so they aren’t always pure of heart but they did represent the wishes of their local voters).

    On the flip side certainly one to fail the purity test will be ND Heidi Heitkamp(d) due to her opposition on gun control.

  81. 81
    hovercraft says:

    @D58826:

    The GOP has complete control of 33 state legislatures, one more and they can call an article V constitutional convention and then it will be time to move somewhere else. I understand Easter Island is nice in the spring.

    I share your fears, but we have to remember that the Koch brothers and the likes of Karl Rove worked on this for 20 years while we were all asleep. The Koch’s began to fund the right wing think tanks years ago, and they began to focus on local races,and filling the courts with baby Scalia’s, by the time Citizens United was decided in 2010, they were ready to pounce. They took back congress, but the amount of money that was spent to win state legislatures was gargantuan, they saw the importance of taking control in a census year. Democrats were so intent on trying to minimize the traditional mid term loses, they barely paid attention to the state races, and woke up to find that their majority was gone, but worse still, they were guaranteed to do even worse after redistricting. This is a long term problem for us, and yes it begins at the local level, but it will take a lot more resources than we have. Remember the Kock brothers and their allies alone spent something like $950 million on downballot races, so when we say Hillary was well funded, we fail to take into account all of the Ads run for those candidates that were anti Hillary and Obama. Easter Island is and Island(s), and much too remote for me, I have friends and family in Canada, and had Landed Immigrant status as a kid, so maybe between that and an asylum application I could move there. I’ll take a blizzard and polar vortex’s over tsunami’s and cyclones any day.

  82. 82
    Kay says:

    @Ohio Mom:

    I think Sherrod Brown really understands trade and very few people who talk about it do- Brown wrote a book about trade. It was always his issue, even when he was in the House. You can ask him specifics- how do sugar subsidies harm US candy makers? He can answer those questions. It’s complex- it’s a “long arc” issue. All Brown wants is a turn away from trade deals that mostly benefit people at the top. That’s what “fair trade” is. It’s not isolationist- it’s the liberal approach to trade. Brown knows full well how essential trade is to Ohio- he knows all about supply chains and dumping steel and micro-manufacturing and on and on. Canada is the biggest trading partner of the northern part of Ohio. That’s GOOD because Canada has higher standards than the US. That’s a “race to the top” trading partner.

    So I would trust him negotiating with Trump on trade.

  83. 83

    “Why we can’t have success” is because it is more profitable to perpetuate problems, and more emotionally rewarding to weaponize them, than it is to solve them. This is intuitive; specific examples are not necessary.

  84. 84
  85. 85
    FDRLincoln says:

    So I called Senator Pat Roberts (R-asshole) Topeka office out here in Kansas this morning and expressed my grave concerns about the appointment of Bannon and the plan to cut Medicare. The staffer (an older man who said he’s known Roberts for 20 years) said he didn’t know what Roberts thought about Bannon, but that there was “no way” that Roberts would support the Medicare phaseout plan coming out of the House.

    I don’t necessarily believe this, but they seem to be feeling the heat. The staffer said they are getting a lot of calls.

    Keep it up.

  86. 86
    Betty Cracker says:

    $10K bling sure would go a long way to relieving economic anxiety:

    Ivanka Trump Fine Jewelry apologized Tuesday for promoting the bracelet that the President-elect’s eldest daughter wore in the Trump family’s first post-election interview.

    Reporters received an email from the company’s vice president of sales touting a “style alert” for the $10,800 Metropolis diamond-and-gold bangle that Ivanka Trump wore in the family’s CBS “60 Minutes” interview, asking them to share it with their “clients.”

    If y’all don’t already know about #GrabYourWallet, take a look here.

  87. 87
    sherparick1 says:

    Also, it appears that the next four years we are in for a bumpy ride. Fasten your seat belts (and grab the liquor).

    http://www.vox.com/world/2016/.....-terrorism

    But remember, the most important story before the election was “emails.”

  88. 88
    Mary G says:

    The most striking thing about that graph is how much higher rural counties are than every other category. All those it-voting Fox-News-watching people are sitting around thinking that it’s minorities in the ghetto having hordes of babies to get welfare when they’re the culprits sucking up blue state tax dollars.

    I’m frightened that they are producing more Republican voters.

  89. 89
    Kay says:

    @Ohio Mom:

    Sherrod Brown has done this before, too. He worked with Rob Portman on currency manipulation and steel dumping, which is one of the reasons (some of labor) supported Portman. So technically Brown hurt Strickland but I thought Strickland was a weak candidate anyway- he was weak in the House and as a governor. He thoroughly enraged loyal Democrats here because he appointed GOP judges in “red” counties.

    Trade is huge for Brown. This is his life work. I don’t think we can ask him to stop working on it because of changes at the top. He’s in this for the long haul.

  90. 90
    Kay says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    Gross. Gross greedy people.

    An older friend of mine has a theory about Trump. He thinks it’s nostalgia for the 1980’s, not the 1950s. It’s like a do-over of the 1980’s before Reagan’s trickle down and conservatism went all to shit with GWB. He thinks Trump and his kids are 1980’s throwbacks- greed is good, all that bling, white people on top and making wads of cash. It rings true to me.

  91. 91
    D58826 says:

    @hovercraft: I probably sound like her press agent because I keep recommending her book – Dark Money by Jane Mayer. It actually goes back to the 1% hating FDR. But it was a rather disorganized attempt to buy the government. What changed was the Powell memo in 1972 and the Koch brothers deciding to treat the project like a business selling a new product. They did the R%D, the product development, the sales pitch, etc. And they have a succession plan in place so when they pass from the scene (both are in their 80s I think) there will be a younger generation of Kochs, et al. to take their place. They never planned on doing this in one or two election cycles. And they never planned on it being just a political thing. They have endowed programs at colleges and universities and in some cases co-oped entire business schools. They want to create a generation of voters who will gladly willingly vote for the Koch agenda. I think it’s a mistake to say they want to destroy America. Why would they want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. They just want to own all of the eggs and to spread a bit of golden egg dust on the rest of us as need be.

  92. 92
    GregB says:

    @sherparick1:

    There is an interview with Bannon. He is a very bright man. He lays a out a specific world view.

    The world view is binary good vs. evil.

    He will convince the leader to see the world this way.

    Then the leader will execute that vision.

  93. 93
    Barbara says:

    @Mike R: He has received a lot of flak from the institutional Nebraska party, which tried hard to shame him into supporting Trump. Opposition would come from the right not the left.

  94. 94
    D58826 says:

    @Mary G: I’m not sure what graph you are referring to but it has been well documented over the years that the red states, esp. the Bible belt states, have higher rates of the various social ills – divorce, drugs, booze, out of wedlock babies, spouse abuse, etc. than the blue states.

  95. 95
    jacy says:

    @MomSense:

    We need to make an action list of possible Republican Senators and congresspeople who can be targeted for outreach. Rand Paul, McCain, Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse, Susan Collins. Who else?

  96. 96
    Peale says:

    @Kay: Yes. Trump was actually going to be the future of the Republican party, already back in 1984-5ish. The Republican kids in my high school in Wisconsin were looking forward to that candidacy while praising Oliver North and making all us Democratic kids repent for Walter Mondale for letting Jesse Jackson run.

  97. 97
    D58826 says:

    Strange bedfellows and all of that –
    1. on tweeter -Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud – ‘we are pleased to have respite over next 15 years of Iran nuclear deal. US should not kill the deal’. Even the Saudi’s understand the simply basic point abouyt the deal – Iran has no path to a bomb for the next 10-15 years. Everything else – the hostages, the womeny transfer, etc – is window dressing.
    2. confidence that the US economy is on the right track has jumped 10 points in one week (sigh)
    3. Lindsey Graham wants to investigate Russian meddling in the election
    4. WSJ also talking about how the Russians tried to influence the election
    5. and after 2 years of Hillary and her secret e-mails Mike Pence wants his papers a governor made secret and the Mississippi legislature has voted to make state contracts secret.

  98. 98
    Kay says:

    @Peale:

    Isn’t it though? It’s like an attempt to re-do the 1980’s where Reagan actually DOES deliver for the middle class.

    The Trumps are like a rural Ohio idea of successful people, too. Some of my clients think I’m “rich” because I’m a lawyer and so is my husband. I’m not rich but that’s what they think. They don’t know why I buy used cars. I buy used cars because I don’t pay interest on things that depreciate – they’re always disappointed at how boring I am :)

    I saw Trump went to a fancy steakhouse and assured the diners he would be cutting their taxes. Cheers all around. The 1980’s are back! They even LOOK vaguely 1980-ish, the Trumps. The women with those frozen faces.

  99. 99
    D58826 says:

    @jacy:

    There are a number of Republican senators who either never endorsed Trump or unendorsed him — from conservatives like Mike Lee of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska to more moderate members like John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Rob Portman of Ohio.

    But remember this is going to be a fragile and shifting coalition. Will get one or two of that list for issue A and a different group for issue B. Schumer is going to need all of the skills of Machiavelli or Borga family to pull it off.

  100. 100
    Poopyman says:

    @Kay:

    They even LOOK vaguely 1980-ish, the Trumps. The women with those frozen faces.

    Do you even realize the amount of botox it takes to wipe the horror off?

    Meow.

  101. 101
    Kay says:

    @Peale:

    Because I’m a lawyer and this is a small town I know who is actually “rich” and who is not. My clients- who are working and middle class- always get it wrong. We have big class distinctions- a lot of seething resentment of Town Leaders and Fancy People.

    The second wealthiest person in this town is an auctioneer. They never, ever mention him because he’s tooling around with drywall dust on his pants in an ancient Bonneville. He likes it that way.

  102. 102

    @D58826: McCain has NFLTG and Sasse will be running for president as a steely-eyed realist conservative and needs cred, so I could see them being buddies on a lot of stuff.

  103. 103
    Barbara says:

    @Poopyman: I think their faces are frozen because they are trying to stay in their “camera pose,” the specific angle and set of their face that they want to appear in photographs. Weird, huh? I first heard about this practice when I read about Princess Diana doing it. Apparently Jackie Kennedy did as well — she was always being ambushed by photographers and became notorious for flashing a delightful smile as she swore a blue streak and called the paparazzi names and threatened them with legal action. Of course, botox might be in the mix as well, but even the young ones do it.

  104. 104
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Kay: That rings true for me as well. Even narcissists fear aging and death, but since they perceive themselves as the center of the universe and the rest of us as bit-players in their grand drama, why wouldn’t a narcissist with Trump’s resources attempt to turn back time? His vile spawn will probably start peddling parachute pants and Members Only jackets on the whitehouse.gov site eventually.

  105. 105
    hovercraft says:

    @Barbara:
    Botox among this set begins very early. They are in their thirties except for Tiffany, so it would not be unusual for them to already getting their botox shots. Walk into Barneys, Bloomingdales or Niemans, and you will see women who are much too young to be abusing themselves, unable to move their eyebrows. As for the older ones, we call them the lion people, it’s like they all have the same plastic surgeon and he’s butchered them all in the same way. Actually I think it’s that they all end up with the same triangular face, that makes them all look like deformed cats.

  106. 106

    @Mary G: That’s interesting. In Renaissance England, church marriage and baptism records show that girls in rural areas were more likely to be pregnant when they married than girls in the towns were. I assume it’s a different phenomenon, maybe based on who has privacy.

  107. 107
    Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire) says:

    @D58826: The Saudis and the Iranians hate each other probably more than those governments hate the West. It’s a power struggle between them for influence in the Middle East. I’m sure Adam can expound on it more than I ever could.

    Your #3 and 4: fine time for them to care about that shit now, huh?

    And as for Pence and the state of Mississippi, they can go fuck themselves. Especially after they’ve harped on how much “lack of transparency” there’s been in the Obama administration.

  108. 108
    Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire) says:

    @hovercraft: I knew a girl here in Ohio who started botox at 26. 26!!

    There was nothing wrong with her face AT ALL. It’s like she couldn’t stand for there to be a single line on her face.

  109. 109
    The Moar You Know says:

    I knew a girl here in Ohio who started botox at 26. 26!! There was nothing wrong with her face AT ALL. It’s like she couldn’t stand for there to be a single line on her face.

    @Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire): Start early and you won’t get lines!

    But there may be other reasons. It helps some migraine sufferers. And my wife has it done at a specific point on her forehead so that when dealing with hostile parents at parent/teacher conferences (they’re all hostile) that she doesn’t look pissed off at whatever piece of doltish entitled behavior the parent and kid are indulging themselves in, which helps the conferences resolve better.

  110. 110
    D58826 says:

    @Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire): yep on Saudi/Iran. geography (who is the big kid on the block ), religion (Suni saudi arabia vs shia iran) and economic (who controls the price of oil) fuel the hate.

    The irony of irony in all of this is the Bush plan to control the oil by invading Iraq and the Trump plan of just stealing it have given the Iranians, even without the bomb a leg up on both the geographic and economic issues.

  111. 111
    Barbara says:

    @hovercraft: It’s kind of sad. The reality is that many models are models because of their height and thin frame, not because of their facial features. Obviously, age takes us all, but they dread aging most of all those who rely on their looks for their livelihood and relationships. My understanding is that certain kinds of procedures are far more common among models than actresses, because directors don’t like having to photograph faces that are made unnatural by surgery.

  112. 112
    D58826 says:

    ot but my twitter machine tells me that the cop in Minnesota who shot Philando Castile has been charged with 2nd degree manslaughter.

  113. 113
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @D58826: that’s nice. Let us know when he’s convicted.

  114. 114
    Betty Cracker says:

    @D58826: That’s good, but I have zero faith he’ll be convicted of anything. They get away with it. Even if it’s all on video. Doesn’t matter.

    ETA: @Steve in the ATL: Synchronized cynicism!

  115. 115
    Barbara says:

    @D58826: Iran is a lot bigger than Saudi Arabia and for all of Iran’s rigid rules for women, it is less draconian and socially controlling than SA. Women are better educated and the population as a whole does not expect to be cradled economically by the government for the duration of their lives. Without oil, Iran has a chance. SA without oil is looking at the abyss. Not that they both aren’t basket cases in many ways and in desperate need of reform, but if I had to bet, it would be on Iran, not SA.

  116. 116
    Ohio Mom says:

    @Kay: Thanks Kay. I trust Brown, just worry about normalizing Trump too much. It is a thin line for Sherrod to walk.

    It was pretty obvious not that many liked Strickland. We seem to have a very shallow bench here in the Buckeye state.

  117. 117
    D58826 says:

    @Iowa Old Lady: I read somewhere a few years back that 1/3rd of the founding mothers were mothers-to-be when they walked down the aisle with the soon to be founding fathers-to-be.

    BUT family values. Adlai Stevenson supposedly said about some issue or another that he was to old to cry but it hurt to much to laugh. That is where I am at right now

  118. 118
    catclub says:

    @Elizabelle: I disagree. They would be glad to get him out of the senate.

  119. 119
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Betty Cracker: police violence has brought Gators and Dawgs together. It’s a festivus miracle!

  120. 120
    WereBear says:

    @D58826: And that it is all OUR fault.

  121. 121
    WereBear says:

    Some people have noticed the Fake News problem.

    Pichai said the company has already taken steps to rid Google of fake news sites and stories. In the past two days, he said, the company has moved to remove Google-served ads from sites promoting fake news, which means fake news platforms can no longer use Google’s platform to make money. Over the last year, Google has also been looking at how to fact-check articles and work to promote trusted journalism sources, Pichai said.

  122. 122
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire): there were zero pregnancies in my high school! All boys, so maybe not such an impressive feat.

  123. 123
    WereBear says:

    @Kay: The Trumps are like a rural Ohio idea of successful people, too.

    LOL! You are so right. I know so many rural people who treat their lawns the way Trump does his buildings :)

  124. 124
    LAO says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    that’s nice. Let us know when he’s convicted.

    Hey Steve — possibly my favorite reply this week. Of course, I’ve been spending very little time on line, so the bar’s low.

  125. 125
    hovercraft says:

    @Adria McDowell (formerly LurkerExtraordinaire):
    Persia and Arabia have been battling for centuries, throw in the sectarian element and it gets worse. But both countries have used the same mechanism to maintain power, religion. In Iran the clerics themselves hold the power, whereas in Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud has ceded power over the populous to the clerics in exchange for them being allowed to keep their position as the ruling family, and the billions that come with that. But neither system is truly stable, states that have to enforce piety are not sustainable in the long run. Their proxy wars more than the Israeli-Palestine issue are the most destabilizing force in the Middle East. While it is true that the Saudi’s along with Israel and basically every other Sunni nation in the region were against the Iran Nuclear Deal, it’s been in effect for a year now, and everything they said would happen has failed to happen, so they are all more copacetic about it now. They still don’t like it, but it has given them a respite as they say. The Saudi’s biggest fear though is that it will eventually lead to the normalization of relations between the US and Iran, and the reduction in Saudi influence with us. Saudi is about as reliable an ally as Pakistan, so I think we should treat them the same way, we’ve been getting closer and closer to India, while getting tougher to Pakistan. Eventually we need to do the same with Saudi.
    To be injecting poison into your body out of vanity at the age of 26 is just sad. Aging is normal and natural, it should be embraced.

  126. 126
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @LAO:

    Hey Steve — possibly my favorite reply this week

    Sweet! Updating my linked in profile now….

  127. 127
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Dr. Ronnie James, D.O.: A problem with IUDs is that if you lose your access to health care, the slight health risks associated with them could become a serious problem.

  128. 128
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Peale:

    I’m not really going to be opposed to that DINO organization. If it actually brings voters out in the long run, it will be ok. My guess is that it will collapse in a few years when the definition of purity falls and creates squabbling.

    Biggest risk: “purity” gets defined as “prioritizes economic leftism over rights for blacks and women”.

  129. 129
    Felonius Monk says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    has brought Gators and Dawgs together. It’s a festivus miracle!

    Thanks, Steve. That’s the funniest thing I’ve read here all week.

  130. 130
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @Felonius Monk: I am here to serve

  131. 131
    D58826 says:

    @hovercraft:

    Persia and Arabia have been battling for centuries

    American exceptionalism (and two oceans) allow us to think history started when the Pilgrims stepped on that rock.

    Never mind that the ancestors of those Mexican rapists where here 100 years before. Or that they owned Texas (can we Give it back) before it was stolen by the gringos

    Or that Persia/Arabia and the middle east have histories that go back to the time when Native Americans hunted buffalo on foot and most of northern Europe was populated with hunter/gathers and some subsistence farming.

    Given some of Trump’s advisers he may well achieve the impossible and unite the entire Muslim world (shia and Sunni) in a clash of civilizations. I suspect that Dubya is quite pleased with the electoral outcome since now he will no longer be the worst president in US history.

  132. 132
    Steve in the ATL says:

    @D58826: he may fall to third after trump gets impeached and dense takes over

  133. 133
    Matt McIrvin says:

    @Peale: I had a friend in high school who hero-worshipped Donald Trump in sort of a semi-ironic jokey way. He also idolized Bruce Springsteen to the point of dressing like him on the “Born In The USA” cover with a ball cap stuck in his back pocket (come to think of it, Trump’s MAGA caps are the same color as that one). He was a mathematical prodigy who spent a lot of effort on affecting this blue-collar-common-man image to try to keep from being marginalized as a nerd.

    I think there’s a lot to the idea of Trump as Eighties nostalgia item.

  134. 134
    Betty Cracker says:

    If we manage to pull together data to prove Trump’s win was an 80s nostalgia thing, can we put Adam Ant or Cyndi Lauper in charge of the DNC instead of a Sanders disciple?

  135. 135
    D58826 says:

    ok now I’m nervous. Richard Engle is reporting that some generals are reading the constitution to determine their authority to override the president.

    Not a lawyer but the same seems rather simple – there is NONE. I’m not sure that the military requirement in refusing to obey an illegal order is really the same thing as overriding the authority of the president. At the level of of Joint Chiefs it may be a distinction w/o a difference but even with Trump I don’t want to put it to a test.

  136. 136
    Peale says:

    @Matt McIrvin: Yep. Actually, the biggest risk is that it gets defined as White economic leftism. Again, its not like I haven’t seen this before. Lefties who want to make the economic argument who change their message for AA audiences and don’t understand why AAs won’t turn out. It goes something like this: To white audiences: I wanna talk about jobs and how the boss is screwing you. To AA Audiences: I’m here to talk about food stamps. Like AA voters don’t have jobs. And they need to understand that while it was great that there were once all of these middle class factory jobs, there were a lot of people in poverty in the countryside and working in factories surrounded by poverty. You can’t start from the position that there was this universal experience of 1963 as the golden era of working class wealth. It just doesn’t fly.

    Again, they need to address the types of workers who actually exist in the working class today, not 1963. Most of today’s voters were even alive to experience any of that.

  137. 137
    D58826 says:

    @Steve in the ATL:

    after trump gets impeached

    I keep seeing that fond hope but who exactly is going to perform that act? If the spineless GOP could not stop Trump in the primaries and the power greed GOP leadership having made a deal with the devil it ceretainly won’t be a GOP lead Congress

  138. 138
    Steeplejack says:

    @sherparick1:

    Seen on Twitter:

    When I think how close we came to electing a president who once used a private email server, it just terrifies me.

    (Sarcasm, if anybody’s wondering.)

  139. 139
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @Kay: My god that does make sense that Trump is Zombie Reagen to the conservatives.

  140. 140
    hovercraft says:

    @Peale:
    This tweet storm addresses some of your points, and I agree with most of it.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Democrats lost by tiny margins in swing states. And some want to rewrite the entire Democratic agenda.
    0 replies 133 retweets 205 likes

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    If you lose a playoffs series in Game 7 by one point do you trade your entire roster for unproven players?

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    If you are running a business and miss quarterly expectations by a little do you totally abandon your core customers & core principles?

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Democrats clearly had a message that won over more voters than Trump. Clinton won millions more votes. Millions.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    You don’t abandon what got you this far-diversity and inclusion-and chase white working class voters who have been conservative for decades

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Focus on repealing voter ID laws. Focus on restoring the Voting Rights Act. Focus on outreach and representation of diverse communities

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Don’t tear it all down cuz you lost by a few thousand votes in a few swing states and won the popular vote, youth vote, poorest, minorities

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Dems have a winning message. It needs to be honed and refined some. Demo shifts aren’t ending either. Remember that.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    If Democrats abandon their core principles after they won the popular vote and so many demographics, they are cowards.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    I don’t believe Democrats will do that. I think we’ll successfully stop the white leftists from kicking out minority interests.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    The Democrats don’t have to sell minorities out to the white working class in order to win.

    Marcus H. Johnson ‏@smoothkobra 11h11 hours ago

    Restore voting rights, repeal voter ID, connect with more minority communities, get more minority representation. Win with diversity.

  141. 141
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    @D58826:

    ok now I’m nervous. Richard Engle is reporting that some generals are reading the constitution to determine their authority to override the president.

    Considering how both the Trump admin is apparently not even aware the Pentagon exists, how incompetent they’ve been and that whole Russian thing I can see why. I mean a military coupe is a scary thought, but the thought of a nuclear war because of Derp is truely horrifying.

  142. 142
    hovercraft says:

    @D58826:

    ok now I’m nervous.

    We have the new Shitgibbon in chief saying he wants curbs on the presses ability to criticize him, threatening the freedom of speech of his citizenry, the independent judiciary, so why not a military coup? We are fast adopting other elements of a banana republic, why not one more? :- )

  143. 143
    Peale says:

    @hovercraft: Yep. I agree that we do need to “sweep out” the leadership of the party in DC. It is too discredited with a lot of the voters, fairly or not. Not just Bernie supporters, but even this “centrist” “corporatist” democrat knows it would be a bad idea to double down on keeping Donna Brazille. We lost, we’re scared shitless, but not scared shitless in the way that “continuity” would provide much comfort.

    I don’t trust Michael Moore or Bernie Sanders to actually have much to offer the Democratic Party, honestly. I don’t trust them. I’m willing to consider someone they trust as trustworthy, but not them.

    But if the Sanderistas run around outside the party too long, what was the point of rousing them in the first place. If they want to get involved in the state and county Democratic committees, I don’t have a problem with that. In some states, they are desperate for candidates and new blood.

    If they are just going to exist to run around outside the party and primary incumbent Dems in 2018, they can fuck right off if those statewide Dems they want to punish us with haven’t done their “prep work” and met with people throughout the state. And that includes suburban and urban dwellers, who they seem to believe are the problem but really are the base of party.

  144. 144
    chopper says:

    @Kay:

    the fact that his kids look straight out of American Psycho does lend credence to this idea.

  145. 145
    NW Phil says:

    @Peale:

    “sweep out” the leadership of the party in DC.

    And how do propose doing that?? You have very little say in the matter at this point. All the voting at the lower levels is already done. The folks we elected earlier at the conventions and those at the local/national do the top level voting.

  146. 146
    hovercraft says:

    @Peale:

    I don’t trust Michael Moore or Bernie Sanders to actually have much to offer the Democratic Party, honestly. I don’t trust them.

    Not only don’t I trust them, I say fuck them. They are part of the unicorn brigade. The WWC is gone, we lost them to economic anxiety. New leadership for the DNC makes sense, but we should not be off searching for unicorns and magic ponies, when we already have a large coalition. What we need to focus on is how to get them to actually give enough of a shit to get out and vote. I’m sick and tired of people who wake up the next day and say, I thought it was in the bag, we need to get them to understand that the other side never takes victory or defeat for granted, they show up. Until we show up consistently, we will continue to lose, the nation is very closely divided, but there are still more of us than them, we just need to get out the fucking vote. Unicorns are beautiful mythical creatures, but that’s just it they are a myth, there is no perfect candidate, Hillary let Bernie get off scott free because she didn’t want to hurt his or his supporters fee fees, but guess what the GOP had waiting for him if he’d won? He may have gotten more of the young out to vote for him, but he would have lost a whole bunch of women, and I doubt POC would have come out for him in the same numbers they came out for Hillary in. Many of the people who came out to vote for the Shitgibbon couldn’t stand him, but they came out and cast votes for him because they value things like the judiciary, especially the Supreme Court, our prima donnas were so offended that she had a server in her basement that they stayed home. Many of them are the ones who had the most to lose, climate change will impact them the most, so good luck with your moral superiority while the world melts around you.
    Again fuck Bernie and Micheal Moore.

  147. 147
    D58826 says:

    @hovercraft: now now every one he is the duly elected president so I think we should refer to mim with the respect that he deserves HERR Fuehrer Shitgibbon

  148. 148
    Betty Cracker says:

    @D58826: Hair Furor!

  149. 149
    D58826 says:

    Beyond the Beltway, Democrats are even worse off blockquote> I don’t think I can add anything to the lede
    http://www.newsworks.org/index.....-worse-off

  150. 150
  151. 151
    hovercraft says:

    @D58826: @Betty Cracker:
    Okay fine, I’ll refer to it as Hair Furror Shitgibbon.

  152. 152
    D58826 says:

    One of Trumps top transition officials is still pushing the border wall. Maybe it’s time to put some lipstick on that pig:
    1. in the US it really will provide construction jobs so that’s a plus for our economy
    2. in Mexico it will stimulate sales of ladders
    3. also in Mexico it will stimulate the tunnel building industry
    4. unfortunately for the Mexican human smugglers however it might well price them out of the market since the trip north will get much more expensive. For drug smugglers it will be business as usual and soaring profits.

    I’m not sure which part of that is only snark

  153. 153
    Brachiator says:

    I think we will. The Federal government will go all in again on ineffective abstinence based misinformation.

    Ignorance is strength.

    — G Orwell, 1984

  154. 154
    Brachiator says:

    @hovercraft: RE: I don’t trust Michael Moore or Bernie Sanders to actually have much to offer the Democratic Party, honestly. I don’t trust them.

    Not only don’t I trust them, I say fuck them. They are part of the unicorn brigade.

    You can say fuck ’em all you want. Don’t matter. Especially for a Democratic Party that right now, is expectantly and unsurprisingly on the ropes. You have to find a way to reach out to those who enthusiastically cheered Bernie and found his message appealing. And probably rope in a few libertarians who are about to have their liberty fantasies kicked in the gonads.

    The US may be about to change in some very unpleasant ways. No one can sit tight with the cards they already have in hand.

    We are fast adopting other elements of a banana republic

    Some banana republics actually look more advanced by comparison. Americans elected a temper tantrum throwing moron as president. Hell, he’s still using Twitter late at night to respond to perceived slights. What in the world is that all about?

    And his supporters have blithely accepted the fact that Trump has propaganda ministers, not spokespeople. The slide into fascism has been surprisingly smooth.

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