Wonder if Trump continues holding rallies after he loses. Seriously, he loves it, cable networks would cover, won’t be surprised if he does
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) November 6, 2016
Ted Nugent on stage at Trump rally grabbed his crotch and yelled “I got your blue state right here.” https://t.co/dg0zTvUHdc
— American Bridge (@American_Bridge) November 6, 2016
After the post-Tuesday tantrums die down, I can see Trump, Ted, Huckabee and the Duck Dynasty guys getting together for a Greatest Hits of the 80s tour… ALL HAIL ST. RONNIE, DUUUUDES!!!
Trump supporters at Tampa rally kicked at wheelchair of a kid with cerebral palsy, who was ejected from the event. https://t.co/mnHHNnOCvH
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) November 7, 2016
ETA:
Pool: Obama met with a 12-year-old boy with a severe case of cerebral palsy who had been pushed out of a Trump rally Saturday in Tampa, pic.twitter.com/A5EMGFDfrH
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) November 6, 2016
“You’ve suffered enough in Minnesota,” Trump says after pointing to Somali refugees who have settled in the state.
— Claudia Koerner (@ClaudiaKoerner) November 6, 2016
Worth your time. Trump's thoughts on Somali refugees in Minnesota: "And everybody’s reading about the disaster taking place in Minnesota." pic.twitter.com/BYFdNmj2UO
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) November 6, 2016
Just some casual outright bigotry to wrap up one's bid for the White House https://t.co/ETCbL3BMCx
— Matt Ford (@fordm) November 6, 2016
Trump knocked Clinton for not campaigning in MN and insisted he's been here "many times."
This is his first rally here.
— Sara Murray (@SaraMurray) November 6, 2016
the angry trump supporters parsing this simple tweet in the replies is amazing tbh https://t.co/N89AvWmE8J
— darth™ ? 2 days (@darth) November 7, 2016
Major Major Major Major
Re-posted from below, a good read: Sam Wang has a new piece at PEC about how much Nate Silver sucks. I’m kidding, of course–it’s about how Sam comes to his conclusions in his forecasts and how much Nate Silver sucks.
Gretchen
I did my first phone banking for Clinton in Kansas today. It was really more for down ballot races, but they were still so organized. The woman running it timed me the first time I left a message, and congratulated me on keeping it less than 15 seconds. She said that if it’s longer than that, you could have made another call.
My favorite call was a Libertarian whom I asked if he would vote for Hilllary. He said “Hell, no!” I had to laugh, but told him I hoped he’d consider some of the good down ballot Democrats to un-do some of the mess Gov. Brownback has made of our state, and he actually said he’d check into their policies and consider it.
Johnson County, KS sent 53 volunteers to Des Moines this weekend to canvass for Hillary since she won’t win here. But they figured that if every single Democrat in the 3 most populous counties here turned out and voted, even Kansas would go Clinton!
Yutsano
@Major Major Major Major: Nate has gone so far into making this as much of a horserace as possible that it’s damaging his credibility.
I also see where the Senate might be a bit more optimistic than Wang gives credit for. If the Dem ground game is as strong as it seems to be that might be enough to kick the close Senate races our way.
Bailey
@Gretchen:
The Topeka Capitol-Journal newspaper endorsed Donald Trump today. (One of, what? 4 papers in the country?). Looking at the reaction on FB today, Kansans were incensed and embarrassed that once again the state gets a black eye.
I’m from Kansas and have doubts that the state could EVER go for Clinton, but might as well die trying.
Aleta
Wow, the 6th circuit US Court of Appeals today blocked the order of an Ohio district judge that was handed down on Fri. It was a temporarry restraining order to Trump supporters to keep them from intimidating voters at the polls. Now lifted, thanks to a very conservative Bush-family-appointed trio of 6th circuit justices. https://thinkprogress.org/breaking-gop-judges-lift-court-order-prohibiting-trump-campaign-from-intimidating-voters-9b96c5a85a50#.6ao5z6u0w
Ruckus
I’ve said this before and still believe it. Trump may have early dementia. Could be Alzheimer’s, could just be dementia. If he does and anyone in his family, doctor, staff knows then, while it wouldn’t be criminal as far as I can tell, it would be unimaginably stupid. And subversive.
CaseyL
Twitter is down in a lot of places (including where I’m at); and after the jokes about Conway taking Trump’s access away, my first thought was that she somehow brought the whole service down just to keep him off it.
Eugene in Eugene
(Somewhat OT) Tweets aren’t embedding like they previously did. Is there something going on with Twitter, BJ, or is it related to me finally getting around to upgrading to iOS 10 tonight?
ETA: maybe what CaseyL is describing is what’s happening to me.
ETA2: and now the embeds are back.
Major Major Major Major
Twitter seems fine to me.
Aleta
@Major Major Major Major: Wang’s very good at explaining his assumptions even on twitter. He has grad students yes? They must have quite a team, so fast and (seeming to me) elegant at representations.
Eugene in Eugene
@Major Major Major Major: Twitter’s never seemed fine to me.
RB1123
@Eugene in Eugene
Happened to me too. I think twitter had a collective bainfart.
CaseyL
@Major Major Major Major: It was down mostly on the West Coast and parts of Asia; back up now.
Major Major Major Major
@Aleta: It started as him and a buddy, I don’t know nowadays but I get the impression it’s not a lot of people. Wang’s a neuroscientist so any grad students he does have probably don’t work on the website.
Aleta
@efgoldman: Been lying so long it feels like truth. Been angry so long he’s confused it with being right.
Mike G
@Ruckus:
That’s a positive for a Repuke, their base worships stupid candidates — they find them less intellectually threatening.
It makes him Reaganesque.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
if only your average (white) (male) (probably middle-aged) voter had the compassion of those ten year old bullies.
Peale
I know it’s been 25 years since I moved away from there. But I’m really saddened that it’s such a disaster. And that people are living in terror.
patroclus
There’s a diary on the GOS that says 11 polls released today are showing an average Hillary lead in excess of 5 points. I’m smelling a substantial W (in the range of 350 EV’s or more), with the Senate ours and several House surprises.
piratedan
@patroclus: i am thinking that the pollsters have really underestimated two things…
1) Latino engagement and turnout
2) Trump’s effect on how women will vote, regardless of party affiliation
I am still ever hopeful, that we STILL have a wave election and that this will leave the Senate and the House in Dem hands…
From what I understand, both of the national networks that have been reporting on the election (Univision and Telemundo) have faithfully been reporting the positions and statements of the candidates. Not sure anyone else is REALLY paying attention to what is being said on those networks.
Eljai
@Gretchen: Thank you for doing that. I have several Hillary voting relatives in Kansas. Even though they live in a blue dot of Kansas, it can feel lonely.
scott (the other one)
@patroclus: From your fingers to the FSM’s tentacle-ears.
GrandJury
@patroclus: Better get your nose checked.
Seriously people. Just go to Sam Wangs site if you want to know what is going to happen. I guarantee you whatever that site says Tuesday morning is going to be exactly or almost exactly what the result is Tuesday night.
He currently has it 313/225EV. Hopefully it gets a little better tomorrow so 319/219 is probably the best you can hope for.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This guy was Jeb Bush’s communications director
Last week in NW Wisc, which I think is in the MN/SP media market, a Middle Eastern grad student was beaten to death on the street.
patroclus
@piratedan: It’s looking VERY good on the eve of election eve! Wang is up to 99% probability and even his most conservative estimate is 91%. Contrary to poblano’s model, the Presidential race really doesn’t appear to be very close at all, and Sam is advising everyone to focus on down ballot races. I think it’s a combination of underpolling of Latinos and millenials and a lot of heretofore “undecideds” coming Hillary’s way at the very end. Two weeks ago, I was in the 370-400 range – we could be approaching that, but I think we’ll fall short and be closer to 350ish.
Peale
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: because, Somalis aren’t really news. they are part of a long list of countries whose immigrants and refugees will be scrutinized and tested even if they are here
. Just in case those incompetent politically correct obambi officials made a mistake, Donald will redo their work. But Somali isn’t new.
TS
@Major Major Major Major: I thought I understood statistics. Reading this will take some time
Peale
I wonder, if Trump were a candidate when I lived in Minnesota, would the speech back then been about the Hmong? I will give him credit for at least changing the scary newcomer group to fit the setting.
Ruckus
@CaseyL:
The man is running for president and he’s not allowed to make an ass of himself?
See my comment above yours.
TS
@Yutsano: Comey damaged the senate election by convincing stay at home republicans to go and vote for Trump – and of course, the down ballot. Before his letter about the “new” emails democrats had taken the senate – no problem. Now it is not so sure.
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
Oh he definitely is all that. I think it’s quite possible that under all that is dementia. I’ve watched it up very close a couple of times, done a lot of research, there’s some shit going on there.
James E Powell
So, let’s get ready for Election Night. What’s the first state that, when called, will tell you it’s over?
Frankensteinbeck
He might try. If so, I look forward to him finding out his followers don’t give two rabbit squats in a honkeytonk’s outhouse about him. He’s their line for getting hard racism in the White House. Once he stops being a candidate, he’s just another ranter like the thousand they already have. They’ll forget him with incredible speed.
Ruckus
@Mike G:
Dementia doesn’t make you stupid like being a repub does, but a president with it could be a very dangerous situation. See one R. Reagan. And if people are hiding that to try and get him elected and then run things in his place? Now that’s very fucking stupid, among many other things.
Arclite
@Ruckus:
Or he could just be old. I’m 45, and I forget shit I did 2 months ago all the time, compared to when I was 25.
patroclus
@James E Powell: Florida.
Dow Futures up 230 points already on all the good polling news and the Comey exoneration of Hillary.
Gretchen
I was calling a list of Dems and independents. I called about 55 numbers. I reached about 10 real people, and 2 of those were firm Republicans. That might say something about the proportion of people who respond to phone polls.
Arclite
This American Life just did a big story on Somalis in St. Cloud, MN, and the reactions of citizens there.
Ruckus
@Arclite:
He’s not that old. But you are right he is old enough. My father started showing minor signs of his Alzheimer’s at 65 and moved into very noticeable around 75.
That you can’t remember shit 2 months ago, how do you remember what happened 20 yrs ago? Sorry, couldn’t resist. It’s different, although yes, short or long term memories can be/are lost or jumbled up for most of us as we get older, but there are specific losses with dementia.
Try B12. It can’t hurt, your body can’t make it and it does wonders for your thinking process. Like make it possible.
Dmbeaster
@James E Powell: North Carolina for Clinton. Florida will take too long to know. Nevada if North Carolina takes too long.
trollhattan
I canna take it anymore, captain.
/Scotty
So here’s a koala in a backpack.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Dmbeaster: Agreed.
Tenar Darell
@Ruckus: @efgoldman: With my armchair diagnosis hat on I’d say ADHD & some kind of personality disorder. This is mostly based on Tony Schwartz’s comments about his behavior while Tony was writing The Art of the Deal. Though he’s clearly spoiled rotten he may also have been abused by Fred T. (That’s based on the orange cheeto’s behavior towards Trump Jr. from an anecdote by one of Jr’s hall mates in college).
But efg, you’re right, whatever is fundamentally wrong with the man, it doesn’t matter, a plurality of Republicans liked it, & the rest have talked themselves into accepting him! That’s what we’re going to have to deal with. Aswering the question “WTF is wrong with you?” is just a hobby.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
I managed parking ramps in Minneapolis for seven years. Working parking is one of the entry level jobs of choice for the Somalis, because it doesn’t involve handling pork. Like pretty much any other group of people, they ran the whole gamut from good to evil. One of them really was a scary jihadist. One of them looked like a scary jihadist, but was a really nice guy, though he never adjusted to America and went back to Somalia. One was actually a Canadian citizen; we called him Abdicanuck Mohammed, to differentiate him from the other two Abdikarim Mohammed’s. We were told that one of our employees had been a gunman back in Mogadishu and everyone was scared of him then, but he had become a well adjusted, decent kid since coming over.
In other words, they’re people.
Ruckus
@Tenar Darell:
You are of course correct, it doesn’t really matter why he’s as fucked up as he is, the reality is that he is fucked up in so many different ways. Probably not as many as we would be……
Ruckus
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym:
Repubs have a difficult time understanding this simple concept. It may be that they have a difficult time understanding any concept other than, “Me white, me good, you not xacty like me, you bad.”
James E Powell
@Dmbeaster:
I’m going with a two-state combo of NC, polls close at 7:30 EST, and NH, polls close at 8:00 EST. Those two go blue, HRC can lose FL, OH, and NV and still get 288.
Duane
I watched Trump’s speech in Leesburg,VA. That was physically painfull.How could anyone support that wretched liar? Every other word,good grief.
GregB
@patroclus:
Bullshit! The futures are up because Sarah Palin was announced as stumping for Trump.
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
Insomnia sucks.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant): Yup.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Major Major Major Major:One of the articles below was saying the Trump campaign has been bullying the pollsters. I wonder if that’s happened to Silver.
Arclite
@Ruckus: Been taking Focus Factor, and my wife noticed an improvement. :)
My memory has always worked a bit oddly, even when I was younger. I could always recall random facts so easily (i.e. 40K people die in car crashes each year) vs. events that happened to me personally. Can always remember faces, but not names. That sort of thing.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Ruckus: Read the reply to her were a Trump supporter is screaming about a “a revolution against media hacks like her” The dementia is pure mindless rage of a bunch of very stupid people.
Splitting Image
@James E Powell:
I’m guessing that the tell will be a state that is not called when you expect it to be. Kentucky and Indiana close first, I believe, and they normally are called for the Republicans immediately. If either or both of them are still up in the air when the next batch of states close, it will be a bad night for Trump.
rikyrah
@piratedan:
They have not paid attention to the Spanish language press
Tokyokie
@piratedan: It seems like those who speak Spanish are, but they are hidden in plain sight from the mainstream news media.
Tokyokie
And excuse me, but Trump encouraging his supporters to attack a crippled kid for having a different viewpoint? What is wrong with these people? No one in the crowd with the character to protect a 12-year-old in a wheelchair? This is the candidate and the behavior beloved by the evangelical community? Perhaps if I had a more nuanced knowledge of the Bible, I could appreciate Jesus’ command to kick the downtrodden in the teeth, but until I gain such learning (which I never will), I’ll just assume these folks, as evidenced by their silence regarding this development, are despicable, hell-bound hypocrites.
Barbara
@Ruckus: It simplifies your cognitive engagement with the world. Less complex emotions start to predominate. For some people that might include anger.
Barbara
@Dmbeaster: @James E Powell: NH and PA.
kindness
Kicking at a kid in a wheelchair is a fitting image for Trumpsters.
debit
Most of my clients are Somali, and many of them are Republicans. Or, I suspect, were. Thanks Trump!
Jeffro
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Trump, once he gets some post-loss wind back in his sails, get out there doing regular Rage-a-Paloozas across the country. He absolutely loves his supporters’ slavish worship of his nonsense.
And he’ll do it all under the pretense of running for President again, just so he can charge the expenses to his campaign (i.e., paid for entirely by the rubes)
different-church-lady
Some poor kitten is bound to get skull fucked any moment now….
different-church-lady
@Arclite: or he could just be Trump.
SFAW
I’ve been trying to recall ANY intentionally accurate or true thing Trump has said during this campaign. I’m coming up with goose egg.
I hated W, but not while he was campaigning, only after he started destroying the country. I was pissed at Nader for obvious reasons. But I’ve never wished for a candidate disappear as much as I have Trump. The destruction — to the country, to the political process, to the atmosphere in this country — that motherfucker has wrought SHOULD consign him to a special place in Hell. And I hope there’s room for the Turtle, ZEGS, Bannon, KellyAnne, Jared Kushner, about 30 million of his Trumpistas, and plenty of others that I won’t try to recall at the moment. .
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Tokyokie: They worship the Calvinist Jesus – being poor, sick, unlucky, not being white like Jesus is are all signs that God hates you.
sherparick
@Ruckus: Nope, unless the dementia set in when he was in his late twenties and was caused by doing Coke. This is the stuff Trump has been doing and saying for 40 years.
1. These people would love him, and would love him even more if did walk down Fifth Avenue randomly shooting people.
2. As Driftglass and Steve M at “No More Mister Nice Blog” for the last 50 years the thing that has united these people is hating liberals and resenting Blacks (and then eventually Hispanics). Trump with his promise to zero-out renewable and non-fossil, non-nuclear energy, to abolish the EPA, withdraw from the Climate Hoax treaty, abolish Obamacare, get ride of political correctness, etc., pushes all their pleasure buttons.
NMgal
@Aleta: Dead thread, but I just wanted to compliment you on this phrase and let you know I *will* be stealing it.
Central Planning
@Ruckus: It’s not a lie if you believe it.