There’s no such thing as “Super Tuesday Athena,” of course. Just speculating on what it would be like if CNN decided to start naming voting days the way The Weather Channel is trying to make winter storm names happen.
A text exchange between my Clinton-supporting teenager and me this morning:
Foot traffic was pretty light at my polling place. In contrast to past years, the only political signs surrounding the church where we vote were from the Rubio camp. There was one every four feet or so. Guess that person is cleaning out his or her garage; the signs won’t be needed for the general.
Any predictions? Looks like Clinton and Trump will win yoooodge in Florida. The polls suggest they’ll probably win three other states today with their opponents picking up one each, with narrow wins in Ohio for Kasich and Missouri for Sanders. But after Michigan, who knows.
Looking forward to Rubio’s concession speech this evening if he loses big as expected. A humiliating loss in Florida could end his political career, and good riddance to the smarmy little shit-weasel. He latched onto the fading Bush star on the down-low while running as a tea partier in 2010, then had the disloyalty to turn on his patrons. I’m sure Charlie Crist is enjoying the spectacle.
Open thread!
namekarB
Oh my. Informed people still show up to vote in person? Wow. My California precinct is 70% mail in voters. So much easier than having to be in town and having to haul my ash down to the voting booth.
prufrock
Rubio annoys the hell out of me. If we had a functioning Democratic party in this state, he never would have been elected. But no, instead we do things like run Charlie Crist for governor.
The worst was when they parachuted in Alex Sink in to run for Bill Young’s old seat. They couldn’t do better than that for a district that hadn’t been competitive in forty years? She lost by 3,000 votes, which given that she was a failed gubernatorial candidate (who lost to Voldemort!) in bed with corporate banks meant that people weren’t exactly excited to pull the lever for her.
bemused
Trump, aided by years of Republican dysfunction, sure has upset the GOP apple cart. Worse, no one is picking up the apples, just leaving them to rot.
Mathguy
I will never be able to look at Rubio’s stupid mug again without thinking, “Smarmy little shit-weasel.” A sincere thank you for that.
Betty Cracker
@namekarB: I like to vote in person. It is possible to vote by mail here in FL (my sister always does), but you have to keep track of changing rules about how long a vote by mail request is valid, etc., plus there’s the chance your signature could be discounted and you wouldn’t be there to validate it.
feebog
I pointed out yesterday in a lengthy facebook post that if polling in the five states holds up today it is pretty much over for Bernie. HRC should net about 60 (or more) delegates, putting her almost 300 ahead of Bernie. That’s not counting the Super Delegates who have endorsed her. After today more than half of the pledged delegates will be banked. The math gets very tough; basically HRC will just have to split the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright.
Betty Cracker
@prufrock: We Floridians on the ground really have to address the hot mess that is our state party. I do some but not enough.
Iowa Old Lady
@feebog: After Michigan, I’m less trusting of the polls. I still think Clinton increases her delegate lead though.
Chyron HR
@feebog:
Yes, but if Sanders reaches the convention in a close second place, all the superdelegates will switch over to his camp and hand him the nomination because he deserves it more.
Thomas Hilton
Predictions:
1) Clinton will widen delegate lead
2) Sanders will win an unexpected state
3) Media coverage will be all about 2), not 1)
pete
Skeptical Bernie will win here in Missouri, but it will probably be close. There has been next to no good polling here, and he was only winning one IIRC
Mary
@namekarB: I like voting in person, but I’m lucky enough to have a flexible work schedule and a polling place close by.
Punchy
I just found out that my BIL has become a IL superdelly. I have no idea if that gives him superpowers (although the spawn suspects so), but hopefully it allows him to kick Trump in the nuts thrice daily.
raven
@Chyron HR: hahahahahaha
Gin & Tonic
The smarmy little shit-weasel is only 44 years old. While I certainly hope that his thumping today ends his political career, it won’t. He’ll be back.
Peale
@Chyron HR: I think the reason given is that he has the young, energetic voters who will never come back again if he’s not chosen. Please evaporate, old, entropied folks over 35. You may be 2/3rds of the population now, but you’ll be dead in 30 years so you don’t count.
@feebog: I’m still not certain how I feel about the Super Delegate System. Whats important to me is that in states that have primary elections (not caucuses), that whoever we have at the top of the ticket received the majority of votes from states where voters choose electors. So far, Hillary has been able to stay ahead in that regard. I don’t want to go to a convention where we can’t point to that to settle down claims that she stole it using super delegates. At the same time, I’m not really ready to part with the super-delegate system. I think they were put in place not only to prevent the Dem voters from choosing a liberal out of step with the general electorate, but also to prevent someone too conservative from taking over the party. I mean, in many ways they were trying to prevent another Carter.
If Sanders loses, the way forward for the Progressives is to start filling in the ranks of the super-delegates with people like themselves.
trollhattan
Trump and Il Duce, closer than you’d think.
trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
In 4 years he’ll be fatter and balder. (Glug!)
Peale
@Gin & Tonic: Nope. He’s broke. He’ll be back in the sense that he’ll go work at Bain with Romney or Carlyle with Dan Quayle. Its what they do…
schrodinger's cat
Question: If Trump was born into wealth and went to an Ivy League school how come he is so tacky and ill mannered? I am not surprised that he is an entitled twit but he is an entitled twit without any manners, like he was raised in a barn or something.
Frankensteinbeck
@Iowa Old Lady:
Only one state has been wildly out of line with polls, but even one means it’s worth taking a step back and watching to see what happens. Outlier, recent massive swing, or sign polls have become spotty? The answer is usually ‘outlier’, but if not, it’ll be time to reassess.
dr. bloor
@Gin & Tonic: We’ll see. He’s an even lazier version of Palin, and will probably find the pickings easier on the grift and gab circuit.
Tom Q
@Peale: I wish more people understood this. The super-delegate system wasn’t created after the McGovern debacle — Congressional Democrats survived that nicely, with minimal down-ballot damage (I seem to recall they even picked up a seat in the Senate). It was after the 1980 wipeout — losing the Senate and ideological control of the House, all because of that interloper Carter who’d never been much attached to the national party — that the emergency tactic was implemented.
It hasn’t really ever proved decisive, and likely won’t this year, either. But don’t you think the GOP wishes they had something like it in place right now? If Trump should stumble his way to the nomination — winning enough delegates to barely put him over, but showing serious weakness along the way — it’d be handy to have a way to prevent him leading the party to ruin.
Just Some Fuckhead
@schrodinger’s cat:
His dad was a slumlord in Brooklyn. Apples don’t fall too far from the tree.
JMG
@Frankensteinbeck: I think the closeness of the polls for Dem in Illinois and Ohio reflect the pollsters’ efforts to more accurately (or maybe inaccurately, we don’t know) the voting patterns (many more young voters, independents, and stronger African-American showing for Sanders) that put Sanders over the top in Michigan. I mean, the last poll of Illinois taken the week before Michigan gave Clinton a 40 point lead. The first poll after Michigan had Sanders ahead by two. Hundreds of thousands of people just do not change their minds in unison like that. The polling model changed instead,
gorram
Hey Betty,
Sorry if I’m misremembering this (I’m home sick with a ridiculous fever right now so that very well might be the case), but I thought your daughter was initially a Sanders supporter, or at least leaning towards him. I’m curious (if that’s the case) whether you can explain what happened that made her ultimately decide she’d prefer Clinton?
To be clear, I’m aggressively neutral on the Sanders-Clinton question. I have quibbles with both of them which I know I will easily overlook come November given the alternative.
Betty Cracker
@Gin & Tonic: Maybe, and in a state that elected Voldemort twice, anything is possible. But Rubio has managed to piss off just about everyone. The establishment people are mad at him for kicking Jeb in the nuts. The tea party loons resent his attacks on The Donald. And the voters resent him for being an absentee senator who openly spurns the office to which he was elected. He was always good at playing multiple sides of the fence, but this primary has exposed him big time. He might not recover.
prufrock
@Betty Cracker: It’s abysmal. The party that produced Bob Graham, Walkin’ Lawton, and Claude Pepper can’t find its own ass with two hands and Google Maps these days.
We can’t blame the old people living in On Top of the World Condos for that either. Those people have been here for decades.
O. Felix Culpa
@schrodinger’s cat: Insult to barnyard animals everywhere. Trump lacks the couth of cattle. Although he bears some resemblance to a strutting rooster. ;)
Betty Cracker
@gorram: My kid has been all-in for Hillz all along; I was the fence-sitter. Feel better!
Yutsano
@schrodinger’s cat: He’s from new money in Queens. He’s not a high falutin’ Manhattan socialite like the Vanderbilts or the Carnegies. Trust me the old rich have always looked down on him for being lower class than them. Look at how he decorates his personal property. It’s like a tacky lottery winner.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Betty Cracker:
He’s on the list for a room in the lovely Perry-Jindal Wing of the Retirement Home for the Politically Irrelevant.
gorram
@schrodinger’s cat: It’s the Bush II phenomenon, where someone who’s from the socio-economic class acts rudely in order to distance themselves from their social and economic inheritance – think Miley Cyrus twerking for a somewhat similar “proof of rebellion” act. The problem, just like with Cyrus, is that it’s all a show about breaking expectations, rather than an actual challenge to class relations or outright “class traitor” behavior.
Plus, it puts on display how crude our “betters” think we are, or in Cyrus’ case the stereotypical vision she has of Black people. The fact that a lot of the people being implicitly stereotyped or devalued by these performances buy into it and think that this shows their authenticity is rather sad in light of that.
Elie
@Frankensteinbeck:
If you are talking about MI, that was an open primary after years of a closed caucus process. The polls had technical problems also because it prob was difficult to account for crossovers (that figure was 31% of those who vote in MI – Republicans and independents). FLA is closed. Ohio is open but its not its first year of that so estimating may be easier for pollsters? We’ll see
Trapped in Ohio
Better watch out Betty, or goblue72 call you a sellout for being in the tank for Hitlery. Oh wait…
Does anybody know what they’re problem is? They always act so obnoxious it’s off putting.
Just Some Fuckhead
My kids were both gungho Sanders supporters. I made them cry when I explained why he couldn’t win and worse, didn’t deserve to win. Now they just stare at the teevee cartoons, hollow-eyed and disillusioned with politics before they could even vote.
Betty Cracker
@prufrock: It’s incredibly frustrating, and I don’t see it changing any time soon unless tons of new people come in and demand a new strategy.
@Trapped in Ohio: I think he’s well acquainted with how much I value his approval.
Poopyman
@Just Some Fuckhead: In him we see a contestant in next season’s Dancing With the Stars.
(Don’t blame me for that mental image you just had!)
Just Some Fuckhead
@Poopyman: Television would seem like a perfect fit for someone so good at memorizing lines.
PaulWartenberg2016
I will predict by 8 pm I will be out the door and driving off to a remote location north of Lakeland to recon a deserted highway so I can see about getting some photographs of spooky streetlights before I mysteriously come across a biker gang that will hunt me down and battle me at my home during gory confrontation that will become the basis of a Hollywood movie starring Seth Rogen as me.
As for the elections, I’m NPA so I’m blowing it off tonight.
gorram
@Yutsano: It’s funny, I’d never thought of him as New Money, but I suppose you’re right. His great-grandparents were farmers, and his grandfather basically did a John Sutter type of settlement, construction, and service-rendering thing a generation after Sutter. It’s interesting because he kept immigrating back and forth between the US and Germany, which the German government decided was to avoid taxes and civil obligations and literally kicked him out of the country over, so maybe they’ve always been hucksters too?
japa21
@Betty Cracker: Remember when Time magazine had him on the cover and called him the savior of the GOP. That went to his head, I think, to the point he considered himself already anointed and not needing to do anything else.
Bill
@Chyron HR: You really can’t resist the urge to turn every thread in to a Clinton v. Sanders bash-fest. Not sure why you hate Snaders and his supporters so much, but take a breath. Clinton is going to take the nomination, and barring something extraordinary happening, is going to be the next president.
You can rest easy.
Poopyman
@Just Some Fuckhead: What lines? All he has to do is show up in tight pegleg pants and pout through a tango.
schrodinger's cat
@gorram: I have no opinion on Cyrus, having never seen her perform. As for Bush II his brush cutting etc, seemed like an act, with Trump I don’t get the sense he is acting at all.
gorram
@Betty Cracker: Ah, sorry for the mix-up there. And thanks!
Mai.naem.mobile
I think Rubio with a bit of training can move onto the exciting career field of stand up comedy. Maybe he can do a Red Hat(IIRC) kind of show on Fox News. That show they had that was supposed to be RW Daily Show. They can make sure he’s got water near him all the time.
SiubhanDuinne
Oh, you guys, you guys!! Sorry to interrupt, but you just HAVE to watch this!
It is so good, it makes words like “brilliant” and “genius” sound like insults.
ETA: On scrolling through the comments, I see this may not be as O/T as I had thought it might be. Keywords: Trump, television.
gorram
@schrodinger’s cat: In my opinion, he’s worn the mask so long he doesn’t know his face, especially since the mask lets him loudly announce what he wants with petulant aplomb. At this point it’s killing two birds with one stone – he doesn’t have to consider others and he gets to shrug off being thought of as “Upper Class” (but he gets to keep “rich” – he gets the money but not the noblesse oblige, after all he only got his start with a “small loan” and is supposedly self made).
Bobby Thomson
@gorram: are you kidding? He’s the definition of new money.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Poopyman: He’s delightful in the post-routine interviews, gets a shot at guest-judging, eventually hosts, becomes The New Deney Terrio.
Ella in New Mexico
A little off track, but I’m wondering what people’s genuine opinion on these polls are. As they stand now, they scared the crap out of me if anyone BUT Trump gets the nomination. What the HELL is wrong with this country?
Also, what do you all think is going on with the polling showing Sanders kills everyone, but Hilary doesn’t?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Bill
@schrodinger’s cat: Trump is a guy from Queens who made his very uncouth “new” money in the rough and tumble world of NYC real estate development. I’m sure he was an outsider in the Ivies.
Plus, money doesn’t buy manners. It often has the opposite effect.
Peale
@schrodinger’s cat: It’s not and act. He relies on being the less classy Hugh Hefner. Trump means luxury – to people who have arrived out of the upper middle class and somehow found that they can afford a place in New York city or at a country club resort somewhere. But its kind of the like the luxury of people acting like they think rich people should act because they watched rich people in movies.
You gotta put marble in every room, even the private ones, or people might think you’re just for show!
Expensive marble, too. Even though people might get the impression that someone who puts that much effort into showing off is hiding something, he can’t take that chance that someone will see that you may not belong.
PaulWartenberg2016
If only I could copy and paste my “Rubio’s Not Gonna Happen” bumper sticker to this thread. :)
O. Felix Culpa
@SiubhanDuinne: OMFG. Given that “brilliant” and “genius” are eliminated from the lexicon, will FRIKKIN’AWESOME do?
Chyron HR
@Bill:
What? Just look at how Sanders went from polling at 0% when he wasn’t running to being in second place now. That’s an increase of INFINITY PERCENT. The party disregards that kind of energy at its peril.
Brachiator
@schrodinger’s cat:
He is actually fairly well mannered for a New Yorker.
@Yutsano
Vanderbilt and Carnegie were both born poor and were the New Money of their day.
A historian said of founder Cornelius Vanderbilt:
New Yorkers were out of fucks before most other places knew that there were fucks to give.
ETA: do not confuse my remarks here with admiration for Trump.
Bill
@Chyron HR: I ask this in seriousness – but not really expecting to get an answer – what’s your problem with Bernie and his voters?
SiubhanDuinne
@O. Felix Culpa:
For starters.
dr. bloor
@Ella in New Mexico: National head-to-head polls, particularly before the conventions, are pretty worthless. Cruz would rock Hillary’s ass in Oklahoma, Mississippi, South Carolina, et al, but it’s hard to see him flipping any/enough states from 2012 to get the presidency. The man’s an incorrigible asshole, and once people start hearing him on a daily basis they’ll understand why he’s universally hated by his colleagues in the Senate.
Uncle Cosmo
@Just Some Fuckhead:
FTFY.
MomSense
@Ella in New Mexico:
It’s way too early for the polls to mean much.
schrodinger's cat
@Brachiator: Oh please! I know many New Yorkers, they may not be as rich as Trump neither are they as crude and rude as he is. People in big cities keep to themselves but are usually polite and helpful even to strangers and tourists.
ETA: Big cities have a certain etiquette, if you keep moving and don’t gawk you should be fine in NYC or Mumbai for that matter.
rikyrah
BWA HA HA HA HA HA H AH HA HA
Gardenfli
@Ella in New Mexico:
I really don’t know. But one factor for Sanders high polling could be that he hasn’t really faced any GOP opposition/attacks yet. Should he be the nominee ( a remote possibility based on the math) I would expect the knives to come out and his numbers to reflect that.
chopper
@schrodinger’s cat:
W was born into wealth and went to the ivy league and that dude had no tact at all. some people are just shmucks.
Peale
@Ella in New Mexico: We’ll see. She seems to have a very sticky 48%is number. I don’t know if that is her floor or her ceiling. I never expected her to pull 60% like her early polls showed.
It appears that everyone dislikes whomever is the front runner. They aren’t satisfied with the front runners, so any loser of any party would do. I think that’s it. if everyone really loved Kaish that much, it would be showing up by now in the voting booth.
TOP123
@schrodinger’s cat: I met plenty of ill-mannered rich dicks at the Ivy League school I attended, fwiw.
Uncle Cosmo
@Poopyman: And his specialty will be the Lemon Merengue…
O. Felix Culpa
@chopper: And Cruz is Ivy. Two of the “better ones,” to boot. So no corner on manners, good, bad, or indifferent, from that source.
schrodinger's cat
@Brachiator: Also, I love NYC and have been there many many times. I like it better than both Boston and DC. I think you are being unfair to New Yorkers (not that they need me to defend them) by comparing them unfavorably to the pompous hair piece.
Uncle Cosmo
@Bobby Thomson: Kindasorta nouveau Reich, amirite?
Paul in KY
@prufrock: If it takes a giant (as were those people you mentioned) to win as a Democrat in Florida, well we’re probably not going to win much down there.
Paul in KY
@gorram: Miley is just doing a typically thorough job of trashing the Hanna Montana persona Disney had created. Miley did come from wealth, though (the AchyBreaky fortune).
Amir Khalid
A “Hillary can’t win” piece in Salon by a guy who used to work in Bill Clinton’s White House. I don’t quite know what this Bill Curry guy is talking about. I was under the impression that Hilary was leading Bernie in pledged delegates, but here this guy is, apparently claiming that Bernie has a plurality.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
Carnegie and Vanderbilt were *actual* self-made men who grew up poor. Trump is a rich man’s son, so he basically chose to be an a-hole.
If Trump were a character in a James M. Cain novel, he’d have the biggest, gaudiest house in Glendale, but no country club in Pasadena would have him.
Paul in KY
@schrodinger’s cat: That’s cause he is such a good actor.
Paul in KY
@gorram: In the book: $20 million from father.
Bill
@Mnemosyne: He’s Rodney Dangerfield in Caddy Shack.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@schrodinger’s cat: He’s a reality TV star. He’s playing a character for ratings. He knows how to work the media better than anybody else running. Canceling the Chicago rally because of “security concerns”? Pure theater, brilliantly executed, and it’s working. He’s found the direct line into the lizard brain of millions of Scared White People and is yanking on it as hard as he can.
Not to say he isn’t tacky and gauche (you’ve seen his apartment on “The Apprentice”), but he’s amping that up, the way W amped up his West Texas accent.
As someone who always gravitates towards “smart but evil” vs. “dumb and sincere”, I can’t help but feel a twisted kind of admiration for Trump. He’s beating Fox News at their own game.
I so desperately want to believe that Trump’s campaign is an elaborate troll. He’s on record as saying that if he ran for office, he’d run as a Republican because Republican voters are stupid.
If nothing else, he’s providing a service – he’s bringing the unreconstructed racists out into the open where they can be seen and recognized.
Germy
@Grumpy Code Monkey:
The only problem is all that fist pumping is strengthening their arms.
Patricia Kayden
Good to see that Rubio “President Obama has no class” the Water-Gulping Robot is going the way of the other Clown Car Occupants.
Rubio is young enough to fall upwards into another political position but hopefully nothing that will put him back into the national spotlight. He can just slink away like Santorum and other forgettable Repub candidates.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
Great description! It’s weird to think that Trump may have had a hand in derailing the political careers of both Baby Rubio and Jeb! and managed to make a propped up wax dummy like Romney look even more ridiculous the second (or third or whatever) time around.
Now the question is whether he can take on the Terrible Cruz (Kasich is a non-factor) as we head toward the GOP convention.
schrodinger's cat
@Paul in KY: May be. In any case, do not want, tacky Trump.
Paul in KY
@Amir Khalid: He was a shit football coach too!
Mnemosyne
@Bill:
I think even Dangerfield is supposed to be a self-made guy, though. Trump is more like Adam Sandler in “Billy Madison,” except that he never had to learn anything.
Just One More Canuck
@Just Some Fuckhead: I’ve used this line here before, but it fits
Turds don’t fall too far from the asshole
Shell
Wow, what is the lovely Rick Perry doing these days?
*******
Had to look it up; I never remember when the primay is here in New Jersey.
Did you read how Trump dissed Christie to his face, calling him an absentee governor? Christie must be so happy he hitched himself to that little wagon.
Paul in KY
@schrodinger’s cat: You have refined & cultured taste :-)
schrodinger's cat
@Paul in KY: What else do you expect from an east coast liberal?
*Although, this liberal is too far from the coast than she likes.
Gin & Tonic
@gorram: John Sutter type of settlement, construction, and service-rendering thing
He ran saloons and whorehouses in the Yukon.
Bostondreams
In related Florida news, Attorney General Pam Bondi endorsed Trump. Not exactly a shocking development, but she has ambitions to follow Voldemort into the Governor’s seat, so a bit surprising to me.
Brachiator
@Mnemosyne:
Yeah, like I said, he’s a New Yorker. Not all New Yorkers get gentrified in the second and subsequent generations.
And the “born rich” vs “rich but grew up poor” is not as significant distinction as some would think.
Shit, nobody ever cared about who had the gaudiest house in Glendale. And if he lived out here, Trump would not have been allowed to have a gaudy house in San Marino or South Pasadena.
Trump still gets invited to the Hamptons and still hosts charity bashes of the East Coast plutocrats. And some of the monied class want to stay in his properties. The Social Register is a lot more flexible than it used to be.
Betty Cracker
@Bostondreams: I was somewhat surprised by that too. I think a lot of folks were surprised when she jumped on the Voldemort gravy train, but in for a penny, in for a pound, I guess…
Bill
@Mnemosyne: Perfect
NR
@Ella in New Mexico: The reality is that Hillary is a godawful candidate. The worst candidate from either party since Mondale at least. With her as the nominee, we’ll have to fight like hell just to hold on to states that Obama won easily twice.
Democrats love her for some unfathomable reason, but the rest of the country can’t stand her.
Brachiator
@schrodinger’s cat:
I love the energy of great cities like NY, Chcago, London and Mumbai. The people there can be generous and kind. But they are also often brash and vulgar.
Absolutely true story: I was in the City once and saw a tourist (in obvious tourist gear) begin to approach a stylish woman dressed all in New York black walking towards him. Before he could even ask his question, she threw a quick glance at him, firmly said, “Get out of my way,” and kept on walking.
PurpleGirl
@Just Some Fuckhead: I don’t know that I’d call Fred Trump a slumlord. He was a major developer in Brooklyn and he took advantage of all the real estate laws that he could to make money. He did discriminate in who he rented to.
Donald Trump was raised in the Jamaica Estate section of Queens.It is an upper middle class area, not super rich. He was a problem child in school and went to several boarding schools, ending up in a military school. I’d say he’s more like a wolf who raised himself.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
IIRC, Democrats are now the majority of the country, though gerrymandering often makes it appear otherwise. Why, exactly, are we supposed to care what Republican voters think about Hillary? They weren’t going to vote for Bernie, either.
NR
@Mnemosyne: Actually independents are by far the largest majority. And they really really don’t like Hillary.
Chyron HR
@NR:
Oh great, now Bill’s going to blame me for you posting the exact same thing you post every afternoon.
schrodinger's cat
@PurpleGirl: Wolves are good parents, Mowgli turned out just fine.
aimai
@Brachiator: Conrad Hilton and Trump are both hoteliers. There is nothing new about having money that comes from trade.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
The vast majority of “independents” always vote for one party. And the only candidate that polled independents say hate more than Hillary is Trump.
But, hey, if you want to sit things out and cede the election to Trump, be my guest. The rest of us will be working our asses off to run up the score and hand him a humiliating defeat.
aimai
@PurpleGirl: He discriminated and also block busted/drove out non white renters. “Slumlord” doesnt refer only to someone who makes his money off renting out slummy properites. It can also be a stage in the life of a discriminatory, rapacious, gentrifyer.
NR
@Chyron HR:
That’s unfortunate. Sounds like a personal problem to me.
Mnemosyne
@aimai:
Is Trump really a hotelier, though? I thought he only sold his name to them and didn’t actually get involved in running them. The one time he did was in Atlantic City, where he managed to go bankrupt running a hotel/ca$ino.
They used to put a copy of Conrad Hilton’s autobiography in all of the chain’s rooms, right next to the Gideon Bible. Not sure if they still do since I don’t think the family is still on the board of directors.
NR
@Mnemosyne: True, Trump might be the only candidate she can beat.
But the attitude that people around here have, that it’s going to be a certain landslide for us in November, is wrongheaded and dumb.
PurpleGirl
@Brachiator:
He is actually fairly well mannered for a New Yorker.
No he’s not. He’s an arrogant, ill-mannered bore. I resent it that people think he’s representative of New Yorkers in general. We are not like that. We’re like anybody else in this country.
Paul in KY
@NR: Ok, so she’s not your favorite Democratic candidate. Probably not mine either. However, when November comes, I expect you to do your duty & pull the lever for her & the veep candidate. Don’t have to like doing it, can curse about it, etc. But that’s what you need to do.
Expect a yard sign too. One of the ones with an exclamation point.
Gravenstone
@NR: Repeating something loudly over and over that you’ve simply pulled directly from your gaping ass does not a fact make. But whatever helps you through the day.
Mnemosyne
@NR:
It’s going to be a certain landslide IF we all get up off our asses and work for it. If we just sit around and bitch about how our first choice didn’t win, then you’re right, we’ll lose.
California’s primary is so late that, frankly, my primary vote doesn’t matter. If Hillary does have it sewn up by then, I may cast a strategic vote for Sanders just to keep pressing her to the left. Otherwise, I’m saving my money and energy for the general election where it will be needed.
Turgidson
@Ella in New Mexico:
Bernie’s poll numbers are stand-ins for “only candidate who’s not a demented, knuckledragging GOP lunatic or the subject of 25 years worth of non-stop smears and bullshit conspiracy theories”
They wouldn’t hold up in a general election and I suspect he has a lower floor than Hillary (she’s already at or near hers right now and would likely improve once she’s being compared to one of those GOP dipshits).
If there’s anything that could unite the shattered pieces of glass-shaped shit that makes up the remnants of the GOP right now, it’s the prospect of an honest-to-jebus New Deal Democrat getting into the White House. Even Mittens and Bloody Bill WRONG Kristol would line up behind the Vulgar Talking Yam if faced with that possibility.
Turgidson
@Paul in KY:
Bonus – you can use well-placed yard signs to convince Peggy Noonan of just about anything. Or hit her in the face. You know, whatever floats your boat.
NR
@Gravenstone: Sorry that you don’t like facts, but that’s not my problem.
Note also that those numbers are still getting worse, which casts some doubt on the idea pushed around here that “she’s been attacked for so long now that more attacks won’t matter.”
NR
@Paul in KY: You are presuming that I care what anyone else expects me to do with my vote for president, and that I even live in a state where it matters.
Matt McIrvin
Sanders may win Illinois, Ohio and Missouri and still end up further behind.
Brachiator
@aimai:
Is Trump a hotelier? I don’t know that he actually operates the properties he builds as hotels. Trump Tower is a mixed use building with apartments and offices, not a hotel.
And I never said there was anything new about having money that comes from trade.
ETA: According to the Wiki, “Baby Doc” Duvalier once had an apartment in Trump Tower. Evil seeks its own level, I guess.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: That coin has two sides. New York is also a place where locals seem strangely keen on giving tourists unsolicited advice. Nobody ever does this in Boston, as far as I know.
Bill
@Mnemosyne: Are you high?
Polling indicates she’s going to be our next president. You have to be living in some alternate reality to think this.
different-church-lady
From now on I am referring to every storm as “Fuckin’ Storm”. Just to piss off the Weather Channel.
cmorenc
In Raleigh, NC on Saturday (the final early voting day) the line to vote at my N. Raleigh site at Lynn Road Community Center was an hour and a half long + just to get in the polling place. What was equally surprising is that our entire time waiting in line, we did not see a single voter (of the hundreds in line) that got frustrated with waiting and left the line before finally reaching the building entrance.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Isn’t this Cleveland? HRC”s Ohio stronghold?
Matt McIrvin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Just from personal anecdotal experience, I think there are a significant number of Democratic-leaning people this cycle whose primary political feeling is revulsion for Donald Trump, and do not give a damn about Hillary vs. Bernie at all. They’re crossing over to vote against Trump, and depressing Democratic primary turnout. Presumably they will also turn out to vote against Trump in the fall.
Bill
@Bill: Crap – somehow responded to the wrong comment. My bad.
Gardenfli
15.6 percent of affiliated Democrats have requested Republican ballots.
About 1.3 percent of affiliated Republicans have requested Democrat ballots.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/03/can_i_change_my_party_affiliat.html
Edit: just saw that Jim posted the same info.
Bill
@NR: This is the comment i intended to respond to.
I assume you’re living in some alternate reality where polling doesn’t indicate Clinton will beat the presumptive Republican nominee handily.
She’s not only a good candidate. She’s going to win.
Just stop with this inane Hillary bashing. It adds nothing.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Bill: Relax, Bill. This is BalloonTown. These freakshows will be having Clinton-Sanders food fights for the next four years. Buckle up, they ain’t like normal people here.
ksmiami
@PurpleGirl: True Trump Story – He redeveloped a golf course / resort in Palos Verdes (Socal beach area) that used to literally be falling into the ocean- the property turned out pretty – then again what resort with dramatic coastal cliffs and unspoiled sea wouldn’t be? Anyway he went before the City to ask to change the name of the street to Trump Way / Trump Resort Road – what ev and the good citizens of PV who are not impressed with anyone’s wealth or grand designs mind you – simply told him “No – never – not going to happen. and that was it. So I guess the good news is that while Trump is a tacky bully, facing down a collection of blue hairs made him turn tail and run away.
Brachiator
@Bill:
the polling right now is meaningless with respect to telling us anything about the general election.
I hope so, but I think that HRC is not as strong as some might think, especially against Trump.
NotMax
@PurpleGirl
Yes. Far from a slumlord (nor, as someone else said, a gentrifier). Mostly know for building utilitarian apartment high rises with affordable units, which were a boon to many. Many in outlying areas of the city which other large builders ignored or shunned.
Yes, he was racist. Yes, the same apartment blocks apparently often discriminated. But they also provided clean, modern, affordable living space which allowed literally thousands to relocate from slums and slum areas.
People such as my grandparents, who were able to live retirement in dignity in an apartment on the 23rd floor of one of the buildings of Trump Village at Brooklyn’s Brighton Beach. Ample, but not fancy, open space to walk in the fresh air, to sit and play chess with friends on sunny days, etc. Easy access to the boardwalk on the beach. And they had both Hispanic and African-American neighbors in the same building, by the way. Never saw them happier than when they finally were able to move in the day the building opened. We had made many a cross-county trip there beforehand from where they were living to watch the progress of construction.
What had stood there beforehand? A few decrepit ramshackle oceanfront houses (some abandoned) and clusters of deteriorating dank, dark ratholes along unpaved streets. True slums in the worst sense of the term.
No, it doesn’t excuse or ameliorate the reported racist rental practices. But neither do those negate what he concentrated on constructing.
NotMax
@PurpleGirl
Yes on that, too.
Ed Koch was more prototypical of a particular type of Noo Yawk City bluster.
Yutsano
@NR:
[citation needed]
namekarB
@Betty Cracker: Ahhh. The rules in California are that once one registers to vote-by-mail, that status continues through following elections. You can always take your vote-by-mail ballot in on election day and either drop it off at any precinct or turn it in at your designated precinct and vote in person. The other interesting process is that vote-by-mail ballots commence being tabulated once the polls are open so generally the early results are the vote-by-mail ballots
John D.
@NR: As I ask every fucking time someone goes off about favorability, “So what?”
Favorability has literally zero correlation with electoral success at this point in the year.
1988: Dukakis +18, GHWB -1.
1992: Clinton -11, GHWB -3.
2004: Kerry +1, GWB -1.
Stop acting like that number means something.
Ella in New Mexico
@MomSense:
Maybe you’re right. But sheesh, it sure does seem like SOMEBODY should be doing some serious polling on these head to heads right now.
NR
@Yutsano: Citation already provided, but here it is again.
Mustang Bobby
I got to the polling place and other than the poll workers, there were two other people voting: a man in his thirties and a woman in her eighties, I’d guess. I handed over my photo ID, got my ballot, and went to the booth.
And I voted for Martin O’Malley.
Now, I respect the former governor of Maryland and I thought he made some good points in his short-lived run for the White House, but I did not intend to vote for him in the Florida Democratic primary. I have no idea why I voted for him. It’s not like the ballot was crowded: there were three choices in alphabetical order.
I didn’t discover the mistake until I was about to slip the ballot into the holder. I outwardly groaned and went back to the sign-in table to get another ballot. This caused a little bit of twitterpation because I was the first today to make a mistake and own up to it. (Most people don’t find they’ve made a mistake until after they’ve voted.) But I did get a new ballot, filled in the correct bubble, and turned in my ballot.
Ah, democracy.
Applejinx
@Amir Khalid: That fellow’s early, Amir. When/if Bernie wins all three states mentioned that’s when to pay attention. We don’t know if that can even happen. The primaries have been full of surprises.
WAY too early to say. Besides, he buys into every last Berniac theory, which seems excessive. Some of Hillary’s victories have been because she’s a tough, tough opponent.
NR
@John D.: And has anyone with Hillary’s unfavorable numbers ever been elected president in history?
Spoiler alert: The answer is no.
But even beyond her negative numbers, there’s also the fact that she’s constantly spitting out gaffes, and her history of turning 25+ point “inevitable” leads into nail-biters and losses, that should also be major points of concern.
Bob In Portland
@Betty Cracker: Oregon is all vote by mail. Much easier and no one’s standing at the door trying questioning your status. Everyone who deals with our DMV is automatically registered unless you decline to be registered.
Monala
@Turgidson: Via this article from Outside the Beltway, 49% of Latinos have no opinion about Sanders. The only candidate running who exceeds the “no opinion” answer is Kasich. I would imagine that a lot of Americans are similar to Latinos – they don’t yet know who Sanders is.
Technocrat
@NR:
By that argument, Trump can’t be elected either. What happens if they are in the GE together?
satby
@Just Some Fuckhead: awesome. I did something similar to my son, who is old enough to vote. He knows he’d get disowned if he voted for a Republican, but then he doesn’t like them either.
Bob In Portland
@NR: NR, you’ve entered the Balloon Juice bubble. Everybody here loves and respects Hillary so things like polls, gaffes, prior history of coups and cons, her husband’s grifting, financial connections to the one percent et al, must be forgotten or blamed on righter-wingers or BernieBros.
On the subject of Hillary’s electability, I saw an article suggesting that FBI Director Comey, who was a Bush appointee, is a right-wing Repub and supporter of Cruz, and his long investigation of Clinton’s emails may be simply a political dirty trick. But as we all know, a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich if he’s got the motivation.
Bob In Portland
@Technocrat: Good question. But the fact that the top contenders for both parties are so disliked should suggest something to the people running this country.
schrodinger's cat
@Brachiator: Yes big city dwellers can be pretty snobbish to country bumpkins.
Technocrat
@Bob In Portland:
Perhaps. But I’d argue that “top contender” and “most disliked” should be impossible to find in one person. How is it possible that the people everyone wants the most are the people everyone hates the most?
That says a lot more about the electorate than it does about the leaders.
Bostondreams
@NR:
This is a historically ignorant statement, as ‘unfavorability ratings’ are an incredibly modern concept. You do not need to be liked to be elected president in this country, and we have had plenty of presidents who were not ‘liked’ and yet were elected president. This applies whether we are talking John Adams (a man incredibly disliked even by many of his own party), Abe Lincoln (not even the third choice of his party) or Richard Nixon.
Is Hillary going to win? Who knows. But going by ‘favorability’ is pointless. People will vote for someone they don’t like. It happens all the time. It just depends on who they run against.
No One You Know
Over at CDF, a new post alleges Rubio’s headquarters were evacuated for an anthrax scare. It may be unfair of me, but I’m sort of amused that the thread isn’t on fire. I’m betting any white powder is cornstarch. If anything.
NotMax
@Bostondreams
And recall that Lincoln’s own party couldn’t coalesce to nominate him in 1864. Lincoln ran (and won) as the candidate of the offshoot National Union Party after the Republicans split that year.
(The other Republican faction nominated John Fremont, who dropped out of the race before the election.)
No One You Know
And, after a future search for links, pretty sure it’s a total hoax.
different-church-lady
@Bob In Portland: Yeah, it’s really a drag when nobody likes the bands you like.
NR
@Technocrat: That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?
boatboy_srq
That phrase encapsulates so much of what’s wrong with US representative democracy.
The Lodger
@Mustang Bobby: You don’t live in Palm Beach County, do you?
Brachiator
@schrodinger’s cat:
But for some New Yorkers, all tourists are bumpkins. They could be from another big city. Don’t matter. And this wasn’t just snobbish. This was dismissive.
I know people from Manhattan who would look down on the “BBQ,” the people who would come over from Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens at the weekend.
On the other hand, another true story. I went to NY and did tourist things, visiting places I skipped when I was a student going to museums and jazz clubs. I was at the Statue of Liberty, and a bunch of tourists there. Some NY school kids started singing “I Love New York” for themselves and for the tourists, just for the sheer fun of it, cause it was their city. Quite good singing, too, as I remember.
nutella
Speaking of Trump’s educational background, remember when he said that since he had gone to a military academy for high school he had more military experience than people who have served in the actual armed forces?
Two fun facts about that:
1. He successfully avoided the draft with student deferments and then ‘Trump was deemed fit for service after a military medical examination in 1966 and was briefly classified as 1-A by a local draft board shortly before his 1968 medical disqualification. Trump attributed his medical deferment to “heel spurs” in both feet, according to a 2015 biographer, but told an Iowa campaign audience he suffered from a spur in one foot, although he could not remember which one.’ link
2. The military academy he attended went bankrupt last year and is now owned and run by a Chinese real estate firm(!) link
PaulWartenberg2016
will there be a late night thread for the polling results?
Florida is starting to roll in, and I’m gonna blog a bit about it if you’d like to click the link http://noticeatrend.blogspot.com/2016/03/blogging-update-on-florida-primary.html
I Am Not Jon Snow
Based on the early returns, I don’t think we’ll be waiting long for a call on FL. Rubio just getting blown away. A total rout.
Brachiator
@nutella:
Trump has a desperate need to transform even the slightest criticism into bluster and braggadocio.
A normal person might say, “I’ll learn about the military and make sure I listen to my advisors.” But Trump has to shout “My command of military knowledge is huuuuuge! And I will surround myself with the greatest guys, these guys will be so smart you will get tired of our military conquests!”
Mustang Bobby
@The Lodger: Miami-Dade County here.
Paul in KY
@NR: Yes, I am presuming that. You may presume I (and maybe other anonymous entities on Internet) will consider you a dickwipe if you do not man up & vote for Hillary in Nov.
Paul in KY
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Or likely to vote against him. Your average Cleveland Democrat is probably not a big Kasich fan.