Last night, Cruz gave Trump a run for his money, with wins in Kansas and Maine, a push (by delegate count, though Trump won it by vote count) in Louisiana, and a loss in a tight race in Kentucky. If you look at the delegate count, Trump has 382 to Cruz’ 300, and if you assume that Rubio and Kasich delegates would vote Cruz at the convention, Cruz is ahead.
Since 3 of the 4 races yesterday were caucuses, Cruz’ performance could be due to his hard core supporters packing those contests. To take that into account, I modified my dirt simple model to give Cruz a better shot at caucus wins. Cruz fares slightly better, but it makes little difference overall, since I’m still assuming that Trump wins all the winner-take-all primaries except Ohio, which will net him a little under 800 delegates, pushing him over the top.
So far, Trump has won most of the states with primaries. Cruz won Texas and neighboring state Oklahoma, and almost won his other neighbor, Louisiana. But second place is first loser in winner-take-alls. The only path to the Republican nomination that does not involve a floor fight is Cruz winning most of the remaining states with primaries, and that seems pretty unlikely, given the current polling. Cruz seems to do well in the South, but Missouri and Florida are the only winner-take-all primaries left in the South, and Trump has a pretty big lead in Florida. Little Marco could add Wisconsin to his win in Minnesota, if he has a heretofore invisible upper Midwest pocket of strength.
That all said, when the dust settles, the best case anti-Trump scenario for Republicans is Lying Ted as a nominee. The Republican base just isn’t in a mood to nominate a non-hater, so all they’re arguing about is whether they like orange-flavored or evangelical-flavored haterade. I don’t know about you, but I think Cruz is a worse general election candidate than Trump.
Baud
Agree. Cruz should be easier to beat. But he’d probably be a worse president because he has an agenda to go with his ego.
dp
I think I agree about Cruz being a worse candidate in the general. That being said, I cannot make myself pull for either of these sociopaths. I’m just gonna spend my time between now and November being nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof.
Betty Cracker
I like our chances against either one and find the prospect that either one will get north of 50M votes scary as all hell. If I had to pick between the two for the GOP nom, I guess I’d pick Trump since his nomination might be worse for the Reps down-ticket and his defeat might — might! — finally inspire a housecleaning within that party.
Tom Levenson
Cruz is a 35 state loser. Trump is a demagogue in a tradition that has repeatedly produced election victories. I’d much prefer to face Cruz, but you go to war against the candidate that wins, not the one you want (unless you’re Claire McKaskill, to whom you have to give Machiavellian props).
Hal
I’m perplexed by Cruz’s support. The only thing I can think of is the people who saw or heard of his green eggs and ham faux filibuster saw that as the ultimate work of a patriot, and not the ridiculous grandstanding of an attention whore everyone else saw.
LAO
OT: I see Nancy Reagan died. Is it awful that my first thought was that hadn’t she died years ago?
MazeDancer
Ted Cruz has a sick, evil, dominionist “pastor” father. Cruz believes he is the anointed one of the dominionist “god”. This is deeply worse than a narcissist. A narcissist can be influenced. A Dominionist will burn you at the stake. And make sure the Earth is destroyed as well.
Not sure which one makes the GOP establishment want to commit vote stealing in Ohio and Florida. Think GOP may prefer Hillary and concentrating on House/Senate so they can continue with obstructionism. Or stick with strip-mining states as in LA, Kansas, and MI.
SiubhanDuinne
Nancy Reagan has died.
TheBuhJaysus
If Cruz is the nominee and gets crushed in the general election, maybe some of the more clownish grifters like Erick son of Erick and Glenn Beck finally go away.
Ben
We’re one Hillary indictment away from a Trump or Cruz victory.
Keith P.
@LAO: Also, Joe Cocker died!!! Just now!
Baud
@Hal:
Remnants of the religious right, mostly.
dr. bloor
@LAO: Apparently even she couldn’t tolerate the party that her husband crafted.
Tripod
On the D side Hillary netted 7 pledged delegates, and will probably lose 10-15 today in Maine.
Two problems for Bernie: 1/3 of total delegates are now off the table and she’s half way home. Single digit pledged delegate victories are Pyrrhic when another 150 delegates are now off the table. Second, that polling in Michigan is stubbornly consistent, and if he loses by over twenty points on Tuesday, there ain’t no way home.
cmorenc
If Cruz becomes the GOP nominee and is able to defeat Clinton in the general election, it means the country has transformed into a state that is a nightmare for anyone with a progressive-minded bone in their body. Cruz’s agenda will be to not just destroy every progressive-inspired institution in this country, but to make it structurally impossible to rebuild them for several generations to become once he appoints a couple more Scalia clones to the Supreme Court.
Amir Khalid
@Keith P.:
Again?
LAO
I find myself deathly afraid of Ted Cruz. He is the embodiment of everything I am afraid of/disgusted with the right wing. I hope everyone is correct re: his weakness in the general election.
Kay
@Hal:
The GOP base believe they turned out and elected a Congress and then Congress got rolled by Obama again and again. It’s true among even the moderates here. I think we have to remember what they were promised- investigations leading to Obama’s impeachment or resignation, “repealing” Obamacare, and on and on.
They never got the repudiation of Obama they felt they voted for. Pile that on top of the 2012 loss and it’s just pure rage.
benw
If there’s an afterlife, Nancy hanging out with Bowie, Lemmy, and Scalia in the ‘new arrivals’ room is gonna be awkward.
LAO
@Keith P.: could there be a connection? I’ll miss Crocker.
SiubhanDuinne
@Keith P.:
Um, Joe Cocker died in December 2014.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: I’ll be vaguely curious to see if the maudlin hagiography of cable news will push some of the Drumpft rallies into that little box in the corner.
pseudonymous in nc
@MazeDancer:
Yeah, I think the focus shifts to keeping things in place down-ballot, perhaps through soft voter suppression (make the election campaign such a shitshow that nobody wants to vote other than the diehards) as well as hard. But what about the power of the presidency, you may ask? Well, Yertle will happily keep SCOTUS at eight (or even seven or six) through four years of Madame President, because that’s what he does.
Iowa Old Lady
@dr. bloor: OK, I’m bad. I laughed.
Fair Economist
Agree with it seems everybody that Cruz is safer to face as an opponent but probably even more horrifying if he wins. Supposedly Cruz’s belief that women should be forced to have their rapist’s baby is pretty much lethal all by itself. Trump is much better at being slithery and slimy on specific issues. OTOH, wild things do happen in politics, and if Cruz wins we’re looking at the Republic of Gilead – assuming he doesn’t want to push Armageddon along first.
LAO
@Iowa Old Lady: you are not alone.
MattF
@Hal: Cruz’s base is Evangelicals– his strategy is to rouse all those non-voting Christianists and get them to the polls. Asking ‘What could they be thinking?’ is a category error.
Tripod
Undertaker Ted has limited appeal outside the Bible Belt, Trump will turn the gender gap in the Grand Canyon.
Pick your poison fuckheads.
Ben
What’s the plan if Hillary is indicted? Is there a backup? Because it’s looking more likely with that immunity deal.
Kay
@LAO:
I would love to have Cruz. What state does he flip in the 2012 map? He’s not Marco Rubio. He actually has to win states and he has to win some Obama states, not run up huge margins in Texas.
If he’s the nominee we won’t even have to hear about “Reagan Democrats” or “educated swing voters in the suburbs”. It’ll be all base.
Mai.naem.mobile
Nancy Reagan died.
LAO
@Kay: I’m not arguing with you. I just want to be assured. Lol. It’s like I’m a child afraid of the monsters under my bed. I fully recognize that my fear of Cruz borders on the irrational. Thanks for your “help.”
Tripod
@SiubhanDuinne:
I am aware of all internet traditions.
EriktheRed
Yup.
tRump may not be likely to win the general, but Tailgunner Ted would be even less so.
TaMara (BHF)
I’m not up on third party runs – but if the GOP dumps Trump, is there a time frame where he can become a third party candidate or is his only option write-in?
Because in my happy place, where I go when it all looks too scary and real, It’s Cruz vs. Trump in the general, splitting off votes and the Dem nominee sailing to victory.
MomSense
@Betty Cracker:
The only thing that creeps me out more than Cruz and Trump is that millions of people actually approve of them. Some of these people are my neighbors. It certainly strengthens my hermit tendencies.
Big Ol Hound
@MazeDancer: You are absolutely correct. Tump is able to compromise whereas Cruz is not. Cruz bible thumping will be his downfall in a general election but Trumps inability to help the down ticket may be the key.
HRA
Trump over all the leftovers in the clown car – never ever Cruz
Linda Featheringill
If either Trump or Cruz win the general election, I’ll consider going out and buying a pitchfork.
EriktheRed
@Tom Levenson:
Don’t forget Harry Reid, who masterfully got Sharron Angle to be his opponent.
dr. bloor
@Linda Featheringill: Smart money is saving up for high-quality Norwegian passports.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
“Meh” on Nancy Reagan’s death. She represented everything I despise about fake bullshit courtliness.
MattF
@Big Ol Hound: Cruz is more devious than that. He shows different faces to different audiences– some disbelieving folks say that behavior is ‘lying’, but they’re going to Hell anyhow, so their opinions don’t matter.
Felonius Monk
@Keith P.: Has Joe been resurrected again?
MomSense
@dr. bloor:
I had my chance 10 years ago and I totally blew it.
Feudalism Now!
@LAO: I am with you. Actually, any of the GOP side scares the bejeesus out of me. All the more reason to push GotV to new levels. We need to work like winning the House is our only salvation, because I can not imagine what will come after Trump and Cruz from the sludge of Id that is the conservative movement.
Kay
@LAO:
Oh, that’s okay. I honestly think it’s too early to tell, but I also think Republicans wanted Rubio because they think he’s a better GE candidate. Their candidate has to flip states. That probably means the upper tier- the Great Lakes states- or a set of states like Colorado and Virginia. Both Trump and Kasich are arguing they will be competitive in OH, MI, WI and PA. That’s their route. But no one knows if Trump will flip states like MI and PA. Kasich actually has a better argument for that route because he won Ohio twice and he is from Pennsylvania.
Rubio was probably Florida and a better margin with Latino voters in other states and then the “suburban moderates”. There just aren’t that many paths. The Obama map is what it is. That’s what they have to beat.
Elizabelle
@SiubhanDuinne: Hello there.
The Joe Cocker mention is an inside joke. Two years after his death, teh internets delivered up an “oh noes! Joe Cocker is dead.”
And our very own DougJ put up an RIP thread.
F
I’d prefer Trump. Cruz isn’t going to provoke the existential terror from the squishy middle that Trump would. Plus, a Trump nomination would give us the Latino vote for a generation.
Betty Cracker
@Ben: Ratfucker fucks rats. Quelle surprise!
Miss Bianca
@Keith P.:
Again?? He was a dear, lovely man in the flesh, so if I’m going to run into a zombie, I’d rather it was Zombie Joe Cocker than anyone else.
EriktheRed
@Ben:
No it’s not, but your concern is duly noted.
Hoodie
I can’t see why the GOP establishment would prefer Cruz to Trump. Cruz seems like the guy who is more likely to purge (or least demote and intimidate) anyone who stands against him once he gains power. Trump is more culturally aligned with the money wing, has no particular ideology other than a cartoonish racism, and has no institutional base from which to take over the party. Trump is more like a shitty banana republic pol, while Cruz is more of a movement type who knows the ways of manipulating party and process. The fact that Cruz is the one breaking through against Trump after the dickfest is evidence that Cruz voters like Trump racism, they just don’t like him talking about his member in public, i.e., he doesn’t have the requisite phony public piety. In fact, there is more of an echo of the 1930’s in the GOP PTB lining up with Cruz, as they’re risking treating him like the guy who will restore order and allow them to retain power, and they’re ignoring the ways in which he’s potentially a bigger problem long term for them than Trump. They’d be better off riding out a Trump debacle and use it as a pretense to purge the fringier elements, who will likely line up with Trump’s racism and go down with him. Even if Trump wins, they’ll hold power in the Congress and be able to make deals with him for the thing they really want, i.e., more money for rich people.
Betty Cracker
@EriktheRed: Yeah, poor Chicken Sue! She was The Sane One!
gf120581
@Kay: Cruz, I have absolutely no Obama states I could see him flipping, whereas there’s numerous 2012 GOP states I could easily see him losing (NC obviously, but that’s just the tip).
Elizabelle
I wonder whose prayer got answered with Nancy Reagan’s death. Nothing personal, but you know some hoary journalist was saying “I can’t cover Trump and Rubio one more moment!” And now they get to go back to the romance of the myth.
Tuned in NBC. They’re still doing a Special Report. Andrea Mitchell was up first, and then Uncle Tom Brokaw, and Chuck Todd is there bloviating now.
Eric U.
I was impressed by Ted at CPAC, he can actually talk, unlike Rubio. That being said, I don’t see how he pivots to the center. Maybe by not saying anything. I find it hard to believe he could do that
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@gf120581:
Shit, Cruz loses Montana and would put Georgia and Arizona in play. Ekes out about a 5 pointer in Texas.
Mai.naem.mobile
Damn this blog is fast. I thought I was the first posting about Nancy Reagans death. I know this makes me a horrible person but I can’t even get myself to type RIP and I keep on telling myself to be more civil online. I don’t even have any particularly great dislike for Nancy Reagan like I do for Barbara Bush who I think is a total beeyotch.
LAO
@Feudalism Now!: when I first started reading this blog, Cole promised me that we would reach peak wing nut. I took this to mean that one day, the gop would see reason. Apparently, as Cole has now admitted, peak wing nut was a lie. So yeah, I’m afraid to see what’s next too.
gf120581
@Eric U.: That’s impossible. There’s nothing Cruz loves more than the sound of his own voice.
LAO
@Eric U.: Cruz will never pivot to the center.
Fair Economist
@Ben:
The plan is to hitch a ride with the pigs taking to the air and flying away from the factory farms. Because that’ll happen first. They didn’t do anything to the numerous Bush officials who actually *did* break the law; how are they going to do something to Hillary, who didn’t?
JPL
Why do most think Cruz is the easier to beat? He is an unknown to most of the electorate. They are convinced that regressive taxation will save them on their taxes.
Amir Khalid
@Eric U.:
When Ted Cruz talks, does he make as much sense as this guy?
dr. bloor
@Mai.naem.mobile:
Don’t worry, our faithful media will more than make up for your silence. The hagiographisizing that’s about to take place is going to be epic.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Tripod:
Bernie’s raised a fuckton of money though, so he’s not going anywhere, nor should he.
LAO
@JPL: Great, now my Cruz anxiety is ratching back up…I’m going need a lot of Xanax, if he’s the nominee.
dr. bloor
@JPL:
Unless he can maintain that anonymity through a presidential election, he’s toast. To hear Rafael is to hate him.
Chyron HR
What if the GOP’s total failure to find any dirt on Hillary Clinton over the past 25 years was just a cunning plan to indict her once she’s nominated for President in 2016?! It’s looking
MORE
AND
MORE
LIKELY.
Kay
@gf120581:
Cruz is really far Right. All that “patriot” and “religious liberty” stuff is so narrow- it’s wingnuttier than Republicans are here, where I live. I watched some of his events on C-SPAN earlier in the cycle. He speaks in wingnut code. He can do that- the GOP base will understand it and love it, but I don’t think most people believe Christians are being persecuted in the US or that the Constitution is being violated with nearly every federal law.
EriktheRed
@JPL: Because
1) Even his own party hates him.
2) He comes off as a slimy little weasel and when the attack ads come there will be plenty of material the opposiition can use to back that impression up.
3) I may be reaching here, but I’m gonna guess that religious extremist nutbags are just not that popular in our country, no matter how much certain wingnuts want to think otherwise.
PhoenixRising
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: wow.
The pure candidate whose reason to be in the race is to get the $$ out of our system is going to hang in until the convention unless his fundraising gives out.
That seems…maybe my snark readings are off due to pegging the meter teaching my 16yp to drive my mom to treatment? They’re both a little cranky albeit for quite different reasons.
Anoniminous
@Kay:
GOP need Ohio and Florida to win the presidency. Without those two talk of them taking the White House descends into fantasy.
patrick II
From Political Animal
I hope that number is an outlier, but in the South a racist strongman may seem a better choice to white males than a female or a socialist.
Mai.naem.mobile
I would rather have Trump than Cruz just because theres at least a 30% chance of a GOPr winning. I think Cruz would be easier to beat because hes not as good at phoniness as Trumpster is.
James E Powell
The good news is that this primary season has a little more than a week to go. Unless there is some cataclysmic collapse, it’s going to be over on March 15th and it’s going to be Trump v Clinton. I am anything but happy, but will do whatever I can to make Hillary Clinton president so that Trump isn’t.
Who is going to be Clinton’s VP? I’m betting it isn’t going to be a Castro from Texas.
Rommie
If Cruz is Big Donald’s only opponent – all he has to do is call him Canadian. It’s up to TT to *prove* he’s not a foreign national trying to subvert the Constitution and run for a position he can’t take. I mean, he shouldn’t even be debating, or running, or doing anything when it comes to the election, if he’s unqualified…Trump should have a field day until and unless TT clears it up once and for all.
If Cruz somehow won, he’s the only candidate left who should give our Allies pause about the US being on their side. Trump won’t wreck relations and ruin business, Rubio would be another puppet like GWB, Kasich looks like an adult compared to the others – but Ted, twist his knickers and he’ll throw away decades of good will.
James E Powell
@Anoniminous:
I have no confidence in the voters in my beloved home state. It isn’t the Trump-loving racists that worry me. It’s the Hillary-hating misogynists spread throughout Ohio’s former industrial belt.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@PhoenixRising:
Berniebot math of the red state delegate votes is also a muddle of principled confusion – from what I can tell from twitter, white votes from red states are more significant than black votes from red states because reasons, and Hillary dominated in states that allow first cousin marriages (actual fact from a Bernfeeler). Yeah, my snark meters are redlining too.
Anya
@benw: Her meeting with Rock Hudson will be more awkward since she refused to help him when he was desperate and sick.
Brachiator
I think it was Meet the Press that noted that in Louisiana, Cruz caught or may have gained on Trump with last minute voters. So, the attacks on Trump may be having their desired effect, and Trump may find March 15 victories harder to achieve than he hopes.
Rubio is all but done. He and Kasich are in the race only to peel off potential Trump voters. Florida now becomes very interesting, since it is do or die there for Little Marco.
But either way, the Republican rebellion continues. GOP Voters have shrugged off mainstream Republicans. Reince Priebus and crew still have not got the message, since they foolishly believe that pulling Romney out of his crypt to attack Trump was an appeal to conservative sanity.
However, the idea that Trump March Madness signals the GOP pulling itself apart is a fantasy. They will do everything they can to survive, even rallying around Trump if he becomes the nominee.
The GOP party grandees would rather lose with Cruz than risk winning with Trump. They know who Cruz is. Trump is too much of a wild card. They don’t care that he is a lout who openly flirts with racism and xenophobia. They fear that he may be insufficiently loyal to the money class and to “conservative values.”
JMG
Early voting is either a sign of motivation or organization. Since Trump has no organization, his early voting lead means he has the most motivated voters with the late deciders breaking against him probably because they’re not enamored of the other choices and it takes time to figure out how to vote strategically.
Florida has lots of early voting, plus heavy absentee voting by people like my Mom who’d find it physically difficult to stand in line on Election Day.
Iowa Old Lady
@Brachiator: Nominating Cruz would make it hard to argue that they lost because they didn’t go with a true conservative.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Little Marco’s ability to make Trump defend the size of his dick looks like it’s working to make his support go limp. I can’t wait for Trump to go full metal birther on Cruz. Trump is going to take them all down with him, if he’s not the nominee.
Miss Bianca
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
You know, I for one would find it funny as hell to see Trump put Birtherism to good use for a change. Somehow, I can’t see Sen. Cruz coming back with Pres. Obama’s aplomb (or clips of the Lion King).
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Miss Bianca:
Trump’s quip about Cruz winning the Maine caucus because it was so close to Canada was pretty fucking funny. It will be a Trump Cruz cage match once Little Marco loses Florida, and we’ll be left rooting for injuries.
NotMax
@SiubhanDuinne
As good a person as she was an actress.
;)
Betty Cracker
@Miss Bianca: That Lion King bit was hilarious. PBO could barely get the video intro out without cracking up, and meanwhile Trump was glowering under his shelf of hair, the very picture of a humiliated bully.
Fred Arnold
Must-see Kthulu on GPS this morning:
Boom.
feebog
@Brachiator:
You can take the “all but” out of the first sentence. Lil’ Marco is consistently missing the 20% mark and was basically shut out yesterday. The polls in Florida indicate he is far behind Trump, even if he has made up some ground. He will exit after getting thumped on March 15.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Betty Cracker:
PBO is the only person that has ever pantsed Trump, and he couldn’t do a thing about it while everyone in the room (and afterwards the country) laughed AT him. It was like watching a hawk dive bomb a bunny rabbit. Amazing, and if you’re Trump, horrifying and unforgiveable. Didn’t PBO announce he’d gotten bin Laden during the Apprentice finale a couple of nights later? p0wn3d.
Brachiator
@Iowa Old Lady:
Sure, but they would blame the voters for not “getting” their message.
But Republicans are doing well in down-ticket primary races. Incumbents are still going strong. Cruz will make things easier for them in the November elections. I don’t know that any Republican running for office in November would want to have to be seen distancing himself or herself from Trump, if he ends up the nominee. And I don’t think that many of them would be willing to embrace him.
japa21
Rubio has shown just how stupid he is by teaming up with Cruz to go after Trump and lessen Trump’s support. Did he really believe disaffected Trump supporters would go to him? Their only choices are Cruz or sit out and it would probably be 50/50 either way.
He is going after Trump heavily in Illinois, which only helps Cruz. Rubio is toast. So it is either Cruz or Trump. If neither makes it to the convention with enough delegates for a first round win and the GOP maneuvers to give it to Rubio (or more unlikely Kasich), supporters of both will rebel.
And if it is Trump or Kasich, the negative effect down ticket will definitely help the Dems.
Frankensteinbeck
@patrick II:
Yep, that’s Kentucky, where Romney won 20% over the poll estimates, with something like 80% of the white vote. I lived in Kentucky a good half of my life. It is a cesspool of every kind of hate you can imagine, not just racism and misogyny, but a low-grade grinding ‘fuck you’. Kentucky elected Bevin and Rand Paul. Trump is going to own Kentucky, no matter how horrified Louisville is about it.
Maybe an example will help. When I moved back to LA, one of the first things that completely astonished me was that LA drivers as a general rule leave gaps between cars so someone else can merge. Friends from other parts of the US, amused, told me that it’s like this almost everywhere. In Kentucky it’s not. Tailgating is the rule, and if you find a gap and try to merge, they speed up to try to cut you off. If you keep pulling in, they yell at you in anger. That’s just… Kentucky. It’s what the state is like. It’s a culture of ‘fuck you’.
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker: @the Conster, la Citoyenne:
IKR? So masterful. My love for PBO became tinged with fresh awe after that brush with comic genius.
I was amazed that after that very public pants-ing that Trump and his cranial Tribble didn’t simply disappear under a bush for a while. This was, of course, before I had fully internalized the extent to which Trump has. no. shame.
dr. bloor
@Anya:
I have some very personal skin in the game when it comes to the impact of the Reagans’ AIDS-denial. There’s no fucking way she and Hudson end up in the same place in the afterlife.
Joel
According to 538, Trump didn’t lose pace at all.
I don’t know how much special sauce they’re putting in this (a lot, probably, since there are no polls for caucus states) but Trump will still win if he remains strong in the east.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Brachiator
@James E Powell:
Problem is, you don’t have to be a misogynist to hate Hillary (although, sadly, it may be a real election issue).
And Sanders is a reasonable alternative. There is a rebellion against the political mainstream of both parties. Sanders is benefiting from this movement among Democrats just as much as Trump is benefiting from it among Republicans.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@patrick II: Many Kentucky Democtrats would be Republicans anywhere else, particularly in smaller rural counties. See, e.g., Kim Davis, Democratic and Rowan County Clerk.
Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class
@Frankensteinbeck:
Yup, the sad part is that Louisville is the economic engine for the whole rotten edifice, but the exurbs are overpopulated with wingnuts (same problem for northern Kentucky south of Covington and Newport), and when working in tandem with the unwashed rurals, the exurbans get their way.
It’s predominantly exurbanites that operate from the ethic of “fuck you”; it’s where they are as conservative Christians, we know them by their fruits…
Bob In Portland
@Baud: And yet Trump loses to Clinton and Cruz, depending on the survey is only a couple points behind or is ahead of Clinton.
Chyron HR
@Brachiator:
And yet somehow only one of these two men is leading in their respective primaries right now.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator:
Someone (Flip, maybe?) pushed back against that notion in a long-ass Hillbots vs Berniacs thread the other day, and there’s definitely a case to be made that there’s not really a “rebellion” on the Dem side, or at least not to the extent there is one on the Rep side. Sanders has done well — my guess is that even he is surprised by how well — but I don’t think he’s going to win the nomination.
There is real anger in the country caused by a lot of things, including wage stagnation, wealth inequality, money in politics, gridlock, crappy prospects for young folks, etc. But most Democrats are happy with what PBO was able to do to drag us out of a ditch and seem prepared to stay the course with Clinton if she wins the nomination. The anti-establishment mood of the Dems is in no way comparable to the Reps, IMO.
Brachiator
@Joel:
But they also said this about him:
The attacks are starting to hurt him, and his relative lack of strong political organization skills may give his opponents an opportunity to strike back hard.
If Trump cannot win at least Florida, in the battle for Florida and Ohio, his run for the nomination might finally be blunted.
japa21
@Brachiator: I really don’t understand where hatred for Clinton comes from. Dislike, yes, disagreement, definitely. Hatred? Don’t see it more than I can see hatred for Sanders.
retiredeng
@Mai.naem.mobile: Speaking of Barbara Bush, has anyone seen Jeb lately? I have this image of him being shackled in the family dungeon by now.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker: RE: There is a rebellion against the political mainstream of both parties.
I was echoing an interesting point made by Van Jones on the ABC Talking Heads Show before he was interrupted by breaking news of Nancy Reagan’s passing.
I don’t know that Sanders will win the nomination. But his support is enthusiastic and deeper than the old Naderite lunatic fringe, and it is built largely on purity and distancing himself from the political mainstream. And his victories Saturday have to be seen in the context of his rise from total obscurity and his consistent criticism of the political status quo.
Absolutely true. But I think a lot of people perceive PBO as being somewhat separate from the Democratic Party mainstream. He had to fight to bring them along on many policy issues as often as he had to fight the Republicans.
And Sanders’ primary victories are a sign that voters may be happy with Obama, but not with the rest of the Democratic Party.
Foolishly, at his worst, Bernie has accused Obama as being part of the old guard, and his most fervent supporters fall in line here (kinda like Balloon Juice posters who can’t let go of Obama’s “failure” to push for single payer or a public option). Sanders is too stuck in his ways, and maybe to egotistical, to offer himself as a continuation of the Obama legacy. He has to see himself as part of a revolution. And his supporters eat this up. This may be his undoing, but so far it has been a road to some primary wins.
HRC, on the other hand, has been politically cagey in selling herself as staying the course with respect to Obama. I believe she is totally insincere about this, even though I continue to favor her over Sanders.
FlipYrWhig
@Betty Cracker: I’ve definitely been saying it. And I think I just saw somewhere lately — maybe Washington Monthly, maybe this weekend? — that something like 75-80% of Democrats said they’d be satisfied with Hillary as their party’s nominee. I think we’re dealing with a lot of very angry Republicans who hate everything and a small-but-loud number of angry Democrats, something between a quarter and a third, who for fairly good reasons want a more liberal nominee. And who in the process of describing why they want a more liberal nominee say that the “establishment,” with its money and corruption and corporate-friendliness, is one of the main reasons why they don’t get one.
Brachiator
@japa21:
Clinton did something to inspire deep and abiding hatred early in his political career in Arkansas. That hatred festered and grew as he rose to statewide and later national political prominence. His enemies include former friends and advisors such as the slimy piece of shit Dick Morris.
Historians will be mining this subject for centuries.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: Interesting take. My view is that anyone who thinks Obama is outside the Dem mainstream didn’t read his book or listen when he talked policy during his first campaign. There was a lot of that going on back then — he was new enough on the scene that people could project their own hopes and views on him. But he was and is a garden variety Democrat.
So is HRC, IMO, so I actually think she would stay the course if elected. My only concern is that she might be more interventionist than PBO abroad, but aside from that possibility, I’d expect no radical shift in strategy, just a continuation and expansion of what PBO and the Democrats are trying to do. What do you think she’ll do that makes her “stay the course” pitch insincere?
FlipYrWhig
@Brachiator:
Maybe, but there’s also the phenomenon where a lot of people think their own Democratic Congressperson or Senator is decent, or at least about as good can be hoped for, but that a lot of the rest are terrible. Like Claire McCaskill, not very popular among left-of-center Democrats but just popular enough to pick off a Senate seat in MO. Few Democratic-leaning people want _more_ McCaskills, but that doesn’t hinder McCaskill with the only people who count for her career.
Betty Cracker
@FlipYrWhig: Well, it was an astute observation, IMO.
japa21
@Brachiator: I was referring more to Hillary than Bill, although your answer really doesn’t address that either. And having Dick Morris be your enemy is actually a badge of honer IMO.
Brachiator
@FlipYrWhig:
But this is not the same thing as saying that Sanders is only getting 20 percent of the Democratic vote.
This is just wrong. These people are very specific about what they want.
Also wrong. Sanders supporters are not just angry. They seem to be enthusiastic and happy to support Sanders. There is also the sour lunatic fringe who are brutish and nasty.
ETA: just heard a little news item of Trump imploring Rubio to withdraw from the primary race. Gawd, I love this stuff.
Aleta
It’s time for Trump to put out the candid photos of himself playing with family dogs, wearing slippers as he feeds his bunnies, and surrounded by happy children with Alpine flowers in their hair.
Aleta
@Brachiator: Headline at Red State: “Rubio Sacrificed his Campaign to Save America.” (If you spin through their headlines since yesterday, they are prone to exaggeration.)
Brachiator
@japa21:
Many simply transferred their hatred of Bill onto Hillary.
A badge of honor, too. And I mentioned Morris just to underscore how irrational Clinton hatred is.
I tried to suggest that the roots of Clinton hatred go back so far that it cannot easily be explained. Any attempt at an answer will be insufficient. This is also why I think that historians will be working this subject for years and years.
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
Perception counts for much here. Democrats may have been disappointed with Obama appointees with Wall Street connections, but only the lunatic fringe see him as being owned by Wall Street.
Those who attach HRC to Wall Street are overstating their case, but they have slightly more compelling evidence.
HRC was definitely a loyal soldier working for Obama as Secretary of State, but I have no idea what she will be like as president.
And to be blunt, I think her talk about continuing the Obama legacy is meant to insure black voter support. I don’t think an ounce of it is sincere. To be clear, I think this is good politics, and she has to be political. Her comments here put Sanders on the spot, and he had to soften some of his past attacks on both Obama and Clinton, and this also made his other attacks on her seem like a betrayal of the Democratic Party.
The foreign policy ideas she espoused during the 2008 campaign were often flat out wrong, and contrary to actual Obama foreign policy when he won the presidency. And if elected president, she will be her own person in the hot seat. I do not see that her past support of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy, of Obama’s foreign policy, or even her past votes in the Senate allow us to predict what she might do once in office.
Also, I think that the situation in the Middle East, especially Syria, and in Asia (North Korea) has changed sufficiently to nullify past Obama foreign policy. HRC (or God forbid, a Republican) will be dealing with new situations. Also, notions of intervention in Syria have been complicated by Russian involvement in the region.
Brachiator
@FlipYrWhig:
This is the power of incumbency, in which people love their representative, but want to kick the rest of the bums out.
But keep in mind that some Trump supporters are prior non voters. They actually gave up. They can honestly say that they don’t like anyone in Congress. And others may see their own representatives as having betrayed them.
ETA: Romney is enjoying his moment in the sun as an elder statesman, giving his opinion on the odds of a brokered convention. He is also emphasizing that Trump is not a real Republican. Presumably, this might also apply to some of his supporters, who would in turn be happy not to be identified with a failed party and a failed candidate.
retiredeng
@Miss Bianca: Indeed. Trump’s shame immediately morphs into resentment.
retiredeng
@dr. bloor: Amen. The attitude back then was horrid. btw This blog is sorely in need of a like button.
El Caganer
@Brachiator: I certainly hope it doesn’t nullify his Iran deal. IMO that was a major accomplishment, and took a hell of a lot of guts as well as brains.
Applejinx
I don’t hate Hillary Clinton (snark aside, because it is Balloon Juice and snark as bloodsport IS one of our internet traditions: if you see me on Facebook you’ll see me being way more measured and civilized)
But I too see her as insincere: or, rather, we’re utterly dependent on where SHE thinks the votes are. If she thinks the votes are nothing but the PACs will deliver both Presidency and legacy, she will hose all the voters and serve whoever’s behind the PACs, wholeheartedly.
This is insincere because she’s still willing to make promises to voters, and insists on being treated like she’s a liberal savior and the last line of defense against a Trump or Cruz. Some of us can’t take that on faith.
In some ways I think we fucked up, in that by pushing Bernie SO effectively with grassroots donations, we’ve drained all the wells many times over and left nothing for Hillary. It’s us who are driving her into the arms of big business, because that’s who is funding her. It’s kind of unreasonable to demand she serve the people when the people are not helping her. With a bit of luck she’ll return loyalty to the black electorate, though I did not like how she treated that black activist questioning her at a private event: Hillary cops this attitude from time to time that feels very authentic and real, but not in a good way. (I would love to see her treating Republicans that way, though: just imagine it, and savor)
And ‘what do we do if she is indicted’?
Indict Trump :)
We can have the first election for leader of the free world where BOTH candidates are campaigning from jail. Orange is the new freedom!
Scamp Dog
@japa21: It’s manufactured by the right-wing noise machine and their media Village enablers. Every prominent Democrat becomes “divisive,” while nobody on the Republican side ever does.
Until they’re safely out of office. A few years after Bill Clinton was out of office, he stopped being this gauche parvenue, so they could claim that he was much better than the current oh-so-divisive Democrats still in the game.
Come 2017, Obama will stop being a bloodless, professorial intellect who’s out of touch and become this statesman, and why can’t that divisive Hillary Clinton be more like him? And then in 2025, FSM willing, she will become a paragon that makes the Democrats of that era look bad.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Applejinx:
Bernie’s promising white millennials free health care, a massive redistribution of wealth from the top down in this racist as fuck country and free college, and that’s not making promises to voters and wanting to be some kind of savior? Some of us can’t take that on faith.
There are no saviors. Grow the fuck up.
tybee
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
LOL
RaflW
@top
Little Marco could add Wisconsin to his win in Minnesota, if he has a heretofore invisible upper Midwest pocket of strength.
No way. WI and MN are very different. Look, for example, at our two governors. Rubio will not do well in WI, in my opinion.