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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Another Iowa Open Thread

Another Iowa Open Thread

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I wish I could pretend I didn’t care, but I am glued to the tv.

Tad Devine was on MSNBC a bit ago and said “In a way I feel like we (Sanders campaign) have already won… income inequality…” which to me sounds like the language of someone who is not expecting the result he wanted. I’ve heard from a couple sources that the Sanders ground campaign was a shitshow. And when I say sources, I read them from people I trust (I think maybe Al Giordano was one) but I can’t remember who exactly, not that I am trying to be all cool and mysterious and insidery.

Reader Interactions

270Comments

  1. 1.

    gf120581

    Yeah, that comment from Devine doesn’t sound like one of optimism. But then, most everything Devine touches becomes a shitshow, doesn’t it?

    I’ve always suspected Iowa comes down to ground game and that’s why I’ve always favored Hillary. Obama beat her in 2008 because he had, let’s be honest, the best ground operation we’ve seen in recent election cycles, and she clearly learned from him (well, especially as the bulk of Obama’s machine is now at her disposal). Bernie has shown nothing of that kind and really, he screams much more of Dean in 2004, where, yeah, lots of folks showed up to his rallies, but then conveniently forgot to show up in the voting booth.

  2. 2.

    Pogonip

    I think the system needs adjusted. A few thousand people in Iowa in effect choose the president since whom the parties run is so heavily affected by Iowa.

    Is Thurston still barking?

    Baud/Jane 2016: Because It’s A Jungle Out There. And Because Thurston Won’t Stop Barking Unless They’re Elected.

  3. 3.

    Helen

    The greatest, most advanced democracy in the world counts little pieces of paper while MSNBC looks on.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    I’m surprised to hear about Sanders ground campaign if that is true. I had heard he had a good one.

  8. 8.

    gf120581

    @Pogonip: I’d say that might be true on the Democratic side of things, but given the last two winners of the Iowa caucus on the GOP side were the two schmucks parading around with Trump Thursday night, maybe not so much for them.

  10. 10.

    gf120581

    @Baud: I had my suspicions, namely because of who’s in charge over there. Again, I wouldn’t trust Tad Devine to run a corner lemonade stand without fucking it up.

  12. 12.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Pogonip: sign me up, these non-representative states get too much early attention, even if Iowa doesn’t have a great predictive track record.

    In this cycle the Village was doing Snoopy’s vulture schtick, dying to declare HRC wounded, maybe fatally

  13. 13.

    PsiFighter37

    If that exit poll breakdown I saw on 538 is true, Sanders is going to get smoked. Sub-45 population makes up just 30% of the attendees…no way is he going to win with that demographic breakdown.

    My original prediction on the Dem side is looking good so far…

  15. 15.

    Anoniminous

    Looks like Sanders’ support was concentrated in a few locations, which would pump up the poll numbers but not translate into that many delegates to the county convention.

    ETA: that SyFy auto run ad is f—–g annoying.

  16. 16.

    gf120581

    @efgoldman: I wonder why people even think he has a choice. Being creepy is his state of being. I’ve heard Cruz compared to that creepy guy at the bar who repulses every woman he tries to hit on.

  21. 21.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @gf120581: he worked for a lot of “establishment” candidates, including Bob Kerrey. I’m suspicious of born-again virgins.

    I’d bet fifty bucks theres an old grudge at play somewhere.

    I do like that SG song, though

  23. 23.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Pogonip:

    A few thousand people in Iowa in effect choose the president since whom the parties run is so heavily affected by Iowa.

    Well, I suppose it marks the beginning of the end of the pretense of campaigning for those who are only in it for the grift.

    (It’s ridiculous, and there was a little spat on the Twitters about Buzzfeed UK pointing this out, because apparently Britain has royalty so British people can’t make fun of a ridiculous electoral process that includes a son of a former head of state and a spouse of a former head of state. Um.)

    It has been a fucking massive transfer of wealth to the state of Iowa, and particularly to the local TV affiliates of the state of Iowa and environs. Corn subsidies, pig subsidies and caucus subsidies.

  24. 24.

    Zinsky

    God, that Ted Cruz is a vile human being. I swear that all I can think about when I see that ambulatory pile of puke is that Bill Murray had sex with a ferret and it took!

  28. 28.

    Patricia Kayden

    I hate Cruz like the rest of you but that gif was too much. Lol!

    Looks like the Cuban Canadian is going to win tonight. Poor Trump. A foreigner is beating him. That red possum on his head must be steaming.

  30. 30.

    catclub

    @Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA: That third place guy is only close because the CNN guys say so.

    But it makes me even more interested in how the rest of the field is doing.
    Relative to early polling I would say Carson and Fiorina are the biggest losers.

    ETA: wrote before looking. Carson has held up relatively well.

  32. 32.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    72% of people who love Martha Stewart voting for Hillary

    56% of people who love Kristen Stewart voting for Sanders

  34. 34.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    84% of full figured women voting for Hillary

    42% of waifs voting for Sanders

  36. 36.

    Eric S.

    I’m clearly missing something obvious. How do I contact one of the FP’s? Specifically Annie Laurie.

    Trying to set up an impromptu meet up tomorrow, 2/2, in Chicago with me and Elmo.

    6:30PM
    George Street Pub
    2858 N Halsted St.
    Chicago IL 60657

  39. 39.

    Iowa Old Lady

    Back from the caucus. We elected 4 delegates for Clinton and 3 for Sanders. For comparison, in 2008 we chose 3 for Obama, 2 for Clinton, and 2 for Edwards.

    156 people were there compared to 180 some in 2008. There was a long line of people registering as Democrats for the first time.

  41. 41.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    Anyone who isn’t following Propane Jane on twitter, should. There’s no one better at dissecting the race/class intersectionality of the two Dem candidates and their supporters. One of the better tweets of hers was, when Donald Trump insults women, threatens to bar Muslims and deport all the Mexicans, what’s Bernie going to counter with? Down with Goldman Sachs?

  45. 45.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    57% of voters see dress as blue and black

    30% of voters see dress as gold and white

  46. 46.

    PaulW

    Jeb Bush is sixth.

    BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

  52. 52.

    Eric S.

    @Helen: Not working how I expect. I click on that and I get a blank email form. When I try to fill in an author I’m not getting a autofill email address.

  57. 57.

    PaulW

    Finished watching the latest episode of the X-Files and while it was a good poignant episode it did kind of play to the fanservice just a little too much.

  59. 59.

    Germy

    “There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell— I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us too.”
    – Donald Trump

  62. 62.

    Helen

    LOL. There’s a kid on MSNBC calling the VA “FUCKED UP” and they didn’t/couldn’t block it. 3..2…1 MSNBC will apologize.

    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

  68. 68.

    Oldgold

    Just returned from caucus. It was well attended. About twice the turnout we had in 2008. It went 2 to 1 for Hillary.

    The GOP turnout was huge. It was literally SRO.

  69. 69.

    JGabriel

    John Cole @ Top:

    I’ve heard from a couple sources that the Sanders ground campaign was a shitshow.

    Sanders seem to be doing okay anyway. Not winning, but only losing by a small margin, which is pretty much how I expected him to do in Iowa.

    NY Times and TPM both have the Dem race at:

    51.0% Clinton
    48.5% Sanders

    With ~59% reporting

  73. 73.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    37% of Des Moines delegates cast for Deez Nuts

  76. 76.

    Anya

    God! I hate every person on that CNN panel, except David Axelrod and Begala.

    Unless things change soon, Clinton will narrowly win. I want her to have a respectaful win because I hate the way MSM attacks her with republican talking points.

  78. 78.

    JGabriel

    The GOP race is essentially a three-way, with Master Debater on top, Would Sleep W/ Daughter in the middle, and Waterboy on the bottom:

    29.2% Master Debater
    26.2% Would Sleep w/ Daughter
    20.2% Water Boy

    61% reporting.

  80. 80.

    Trentrunner

    @Germy: I saw that air live on CNN, and when they cut back to Brooke Baldwin (anchor), she laughed and shook her head, as if to say “Oh, that scamp Donald Trump, what will he do next? LOL.”

    THIS IS THE PROBLEM. If Trump gets the nomination, the minimizing and airbrushing of Trump’s fascism will be awful, and it might let him win.

  84. 84.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    I wish I could pretend I didn’t care, but I am glued to the tv.

    Oh god now what happened.

    Oh you don’t mean literally.

    I was waiting for one of those great stories.

  87. 87.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Gloria Borger just declared this may be a “big night” for Marco Rubio, a guy who will finish a distant 3d tonight.

    #liberalMediaBias

  89. 89.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Why is Ted Cruz being so creepy?

    Tides go in, tides go out – you cant explain that

  99. 99.

    NotMax

    @raven

    She was talking about her specific situation as if it applied to the entire organization.

    Absent any details whatsoever about her status, her claims and her case, it may be she who is effed up.

  101. 101.

    japa21

    Earlier I predicted a Cruz win by a couple percentage points. Looks like it may happen. But, it does look like Trump does get the voters out.

    That could push in the next few states into a dominant lead.

  102. 102.

    raven

    @NotMax: Oh I know, it was still funny. My dealings with the VA have been nothing but positive except that the expensive hearing aid doesn’t do much for me.

  103. 103.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    CNN (Key Race Alert):

    With 64% of Democratic vote in, Julia Louis-Dreyfus takes lead

  105. 105.

    JGabriel

    @Baud:

    The vaunted Cruz ground game is coming through.

    Apparently.

    Man on Dog is almost at the bottom of the pack, with only, umm – damn, he’s is so nondescript I can’t even come up with a nickname – Gilmore underneath him.

  109. 109.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    O/T, and unbecomingly nasty of me, but: Apart from the occasional skeleton, has anyone ever been quite as painfully thin as Dana Bash? If she has an eating disorder, I apologise, ’cause that shit is serious, but there is something weird and scary about the way she looks. If the camera adds the customary and proverbial ten pounds, she must weigh in at about 75 lbs. Seriously, that is a worrisome level of thin.

  112. 112.

    amk

    If sanders keeps it within 3% (as it looks right now with 70% in), kudos to him and berniebots. Well done.

  113. 113.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ 8m8 minutes ago

    We project that Ted Cruz has won the 2016 Iowa Caucus.

    747 retweets 357 likes

    THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR McCAIN!!

  116. 116.

    JGabriel

    Dem Caucus:

    50.7% Clinton
    48.5% Sanders

    69.2% reporting

    GOP:

    28.8% Master Debater
    25.1% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    21.3% Water Boy

    57% reporting

  117. 117.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Baud: Yep. Trump isn’t going to win this one. He better turn up his rhetoric against Cruz before New Hampshire. I guess Sarah Palin’s word salad endorsement didn’t pay off.

  120. 120.

    Oldgold

    Be careful when looking at GOP. My guess is western Iowa is currently over represented in the early totals. Same would be true with Democratic totals, but variance on vote would not be as pronounced. Western Iowa will heavily favor Cruz and skew slightly for Hillary.

  123. 123.

    Helen

    @raven:

    That’s what my Dad says. He is able to choose between the VA and Medicare and he always chooses the VA. He LOVES his doc there.

  124. 124.

    Germy

    LOLGOP 27m27 minutes ago

    FOX NEWS: “LET’S PRETEND TO BE REALLY IMPRESSED BY MARCO RUBIO LOSING”

  129. 129.

    James E Powell

    I never thought Trump would beat Cruz in Iowa – He’s not Christo-Fascist enough.

    Cruz will be all full of himself, but so were Huckabee and Santorum. Beside, Village press/media will hype Rubio’s 3rd place more than Cruz winning,

  130. 130.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    So,who drops out of the GOP race? Anybody? Do they all move onto NH. Do Rand and Ben continue their grifting tours? I’m thinking Lil Ricky drops out but who does he endorse? Does anybody want his endorsement?

  131. 131.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    Looks like O’Malley is going to suspend his campaign.

    Edit: Just like Hilts said two minutes earlier.

  133. 133.

    Ked

    Trump had a rally today? Good god, he really is trying to lose.

    All that said, Cruz is only holding serve here – Iowa was always going to go to a theocon, and Carson has grifted himself out of real contention. If Trump is within a few percent, then he’ll go stomp NH, SC is winnable, and I’m not sure I know how he sells in NV.

    Jeb: HA, HA.

    And of course none of these reported percentages really matter, because caucusing is always fucked up and the delegate numbers will be bizzaro-world.

  135. 135.

    JGabriel

    @dmsilev:

    According to the AP, Jim Gilmore has received 7 votes. Feel the Gilmentum!

    That’s so sad. I almost feel … nope, nothing, I don’t feel anything for Gilmore.

  138. 138.

    dmsilev

    So, looks like Senator Backpfeifengesicht is going to hold on to win. Opossum-on-head will probably be second, and Senator Proper Hydration will take the bronze.

    And MSNBC reporting O’Malley to suspend his campaign. Not much of a shock.

  140. 140.

    Baud

    Not gonna lie. For Trump to actually place a close second in Iowa is telling about his appeal. No more speculation.

  142. 142.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    @Baud: Rachel just said he ran out of money. Staff volunteering, has $100k cash on hand, etc.

    It was a learning experience for him. He will be stronger in 2024 if he decides to run…

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (Man, that seems like a long way away – it’s hard to believe it’s only 8 years from now…)

  143. 143.

    JGabriel

    So far, this is much less exciting than the razor-thin closeness of the 2012 Iowa contest between Man on Dog and Dog on Car.

    Sigh.

  147. 147.

    Irony Abounds

    @James E Powell: Yep, Rubio is going to be the big story on Fox News as it tries to stop Trump. I don’t see Cruz doing all that well in NH, but Rubio will get a big boost. After NH, Cruz is very likely going to be old news.

  150. 150.

    hkedi

    @Helen: Nah, Trump will blow off the state as always picking the looser (he actually said that in a speech I heard on NPR, that Iowa hasn’t picked a winner in 16 years)

  154. 154.

    Anne Laurie

    @NotMax:

    New Hampshire primary ought to be held tomorrow instead of next week.

    Have to give the NHampsters one more chance to milk the expense-account media — and from early reports, those guys may not be able to get out of DesMoines until later in the week!

  162. 162.

    Mandalay

    WTF has happened to Steve Kornacki?

    He used to be great, but he’s sold his soul for a paycheck. He’s become a moron spewing meaningless drivel in front of a map. A less awful version of John King, but not by much.

  165. 165.

    Baud

    @JGabriel: If Sanders does just barely lose, or even if he just barely wins, it seems like they made a mistake being so pessimistic these last few days. I tend to think it cost them some votes.

  166. 166.

    JGabriel

    The GOP results have been stuck at 62% reporting for a while now.

    They must be taking a break to rig the results.

  170. 170.

    PsiFighter37

    Trump is disappointing, but I guess having zero ground game only gets you so far.

    Clinton-Sanders also a lot tighter. Guess I was off on my predictions…rusty!

  177. 177.

    Baud

    @mike in dc: The GOP and the media want Sanders because they think he’s easier to beat. It’s already close enough that it’ll be spun as a loss for Clinton.

  179. 179.

    JGabriel

    @Baud:

    If Sanders does just barely lose, or even if he just barely wins, it seems like they made a mistake being so pessimistic these last few days. I tend to think it cost them some votes.

    Maybe. To be honest. even as someone who is leaning Sanders, I didn’t expect him to win Iowa. Keeping it this close in Iowa is something of an achievement on its own.

    I suspect he’ll take NH, though.

    From that point on, I haven’t a clue yet how it will play out.

  181. 181.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @satby: Well the breaking out does tend to heal up at some point at least. Though just replaced by other problems of course.

  185. 185.

    JGabriel

    Dem Caucus still tightening:

    50.1% Clinton
    49.2% Sanders

    83% reporting

    Meanwhile, on the Republic side, Waterboy is closing in on Would Sleep w/ Daughter. This could be a close race for second place, folks!

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy

    83% reporting

  188. 188.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ

    We also project that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus.

    314 retweets 149 likes

  191. 191.

    Splitting Image

    80+% reporting for both parties now. Kudos to Sanders for keeping it so close. Cruz looks like the winner on the GOP side.

    Sanders might even pull it out. I suspect the last arrivals on the Democrat side will be the precincts with a (relatively) large number of O’Malley voters on the first ballot. I recall a poll suggesting they would break for Sanders.

    Rubio did way better than I expected.

  192. 192.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    Come on, Ted, finish him off. You know what they say, when your opponent is drowning, throw him an anchor, baby.

  193. 193.

    MobiusKlein

    I told my 14 yr old daughter to knee any man doing the Cruz creep move in the groin. Especially a politician. She asked about hitting, but I thought that would lead to more trouble.

  194. 194.

    Anoniminous

    99% reporting:

    Cruz 43,221 28%

    Trump 38,029 24%

    Rubio 35,791 23%

    Carson 14,489 9%

    Pau 7,046 4%

    JEB! 4,385 3% (Unlimited Corporate BRINKS TRUCKS didn’t do so good.)

    Kasich 2,953 2%

    Fiorina 2,833 2%

    Huckabee 2,730 2% (Note: won Iowa in 2008)

    Christie 2,713 2%

    Santorum 1,524 1% (Note: won Iowa, barely, in 2014)

    Another big loser are the various polling companies.

  201. 201.

    seaboogie

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    It has been a fucking massive transfer of wealth to the state of Iowa, and particularly to the local TV affiliates of the state of Iowa and environs. Corn subsidies, pig subsidies and caucus subsidies.

    Iowans overall not stupid (except for when they narrowly re-upped on Bush the Younger in ’04). Voted Dem in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.

  202. 202.

    JGabriel

    As we round into the closing stretch of the GOP dog race, Master Debater maintains the lead. Water Boy, in third place, is closing in on Would Sleep W/ Daughter. Doctor Grifter follows distantly, in fourth place, and That Dog Is Not The Federal Government’s Responsibility, Jr. trails behind in fifth place:

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy
    9.3% Doctor Grifter
    4.5% That Dog Is Not The Federal Govt’s Responsibility, Jr.

    85% reporting

  203. 203.

    sigaba

    Songs shall be sung of how much Internet that GIF wins.

    All the Internet you say? I tell you there is not enough.

  212. 212.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @JGabriel: 27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy
    9.3% Doctor Grifter

    I’ll take Adam Sandler Film Fest for $600, Alex

  214. 214.

    scav

    @JGabriel: A (very close) three-way between Master Debater, Would Sleep W/ Daughter and Water Boy (would that necessarily be a four-way?) somehow brings me great glee, even as I try frantically not really to visualize it.

  217. 217.

    George Hayduke

    Well, Iowa’s a draw. With proportional delegates.

    Drawing to the Clinton Juggernaut is the kind of shitshow I wouldn’t mind.

  218. 218.

    Anne Laurie

    New post up top, in O’Malley’s honor.

    @dmsilev:

    I think Santorum and Huckabee are toast.

    Santorum just said he’s staying in — going to South Carolina to stump the state.

    Earlier this week, Hucksterbee said he’d have a ‘big announcement’ next week; conventional wisdome is he’ll be endorsing Trump (presumably in return for some quasi-legal form of payment).

  220. 220.

    Anoniminous

    huh

    Jefferson county went Sanders 72%. That was hard-core DLC territory when I was living in Iowa.

  221. 221.

    JGabriel

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    The Village goes all in on Rubio now…

    Almost certainly. In a way, it looks like Rubio is going to be the biggest winner – he should get a lot more support from the part of the billionaire club that’s been holding out for a clear leader to emerge in the “establishment” faction, while the rest of the GOPers below get quietly sidled out by lack of funds.

    Cruz might pick up some billionaire support too.

    Not much will change for Trump, although if he loses NH too, I suspect his campaign will start to fall apart.

  225. 225.

    hilts

    @Mandalay:

    “A moron spewing meaningless drivel”

    This phrase could just as easily apply to Kornacki’s MSNBC colleagues Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, and Mika Brzezinski.

  226. 226.

    different-church-lady

    @scav:

    (would that necessarily be a four-way?)

    Technically, it would only be a three-way: four people, but each can go three ways.

    Then again, it doesn’t sound like Trump would share.

  227. 227.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    ¿Jeb?’s concession speech is really bitter:

    I can handle things, I’m smart! Not like everyone says — like dumb! I’m smart! And I want respect!

  228. 228.

    magurakurin

    @Tom65: It’s a tie on the Dem side. Not enough for either side to claim a big win. And in this case, I guess the tie would go to Sanders for doing so well. But he is still toast down the road. A tie in a two way Iowa race really does point to a paradigm breaking revolution of political alignments. I wouldn’t imagine that Sanders’ tying Clinton in Iowa is going to change many votes in SC, NC, FL, TX, NJ, PA, etc, or as some call it…the rest of the country. Hopefully Sanders’ youth voters will come along for the big win…but one wonders.

  230. 230.

    Calouste

    @JGabriel: Trump might go third party if he doesn’t win NH. He’s got his story ready: he was leading big in the polls, so his losses “must have been caused” by the GOP establishment rigging the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear the first rumblings about that tonight. Of course, Trump going third party would be disastrous for the GOP.

  231. 231.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    LOS ANGELES — (Variety) Hillary Clinton to star as Snake Plissken in “Escape From Iowa”

  232. 232.

    different-church-lady

    @scav: It’s a very common mistake. The only reason I’m on it is I came up at the tail end of the New Math movement, and set theory was a big part of that.

  233. 233.

    seaboogie

    @JGabriel:

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy

    Awesome sobriquets. I think the repub poo-slinging is going to be pretty interesting for the next little while. And if Rubio maintains the spot he has now, he is going to become such a target that Flint is going to be sending him bottles of water.

  234. 234.

    mclaren

    Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee. It’s common knowledge that Hillary can’t win the general election.

  240. 240.

    Mandalay

    @hilts:

    This phrase could just as easily apply to Kornacki’s MSNBC colleagues Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, and Mika Brzezinski.

    Sure, but it has always been true for them. Not so for Kornacki. He was great until he hit the big time with his Bridgegate coverage. It’s been downhill all the way since then. Seeing him humiliate himself tonight was just sad.

  241. 241.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    live coverage of a speech by the guy who finished third in the caucus of a small rural state?

    @Joe Bauers: wasn’t inevitability one of the arguments against her?

  243. 243.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    From 538:

    Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 3m3 minutes ago

    A number of precincts out in Polk for Clinton (still haven’t reported). She’ll probably win this, but very close.

    12 retweets 9 likes

  244. 244.

    seaboogie

    @Joe Bauers:

    Hillary is the least inevitable inevitable candidate evar.

    For which I am glad. It gets her on her game – and she brings good game. She is that smart gal who tries hard and is wonky as all hell…

    None of us are as inspired by Hillary as we were by Obama, but I really respect her, and think that she would make a really good president – possibly even great.

  246. 246.

    Mandalay

    Bully boy Christie is getting a serious shit kicking in Iowa. He’s losing to Fiorina and Huckabee.

    Sweet.

  250. 250.

    seaboogie

    @mclaren:

    Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee. It’s common knowledge that Hillary can’t win the general election.

    mclaren has decreed it, and so it shall be. Common knowledge.

  252. 252.

    Matt McIrvin

    Why does it matter who “wins” a super-close race in a caucus with proportional delegate assignment? Clinton and Sanders are going to get practically equal numbers of delegates regardless, and the remaining margin is going to be insignificant come convention time.

  254. 254.

    mak

    @Anne Laurie: The most important and telling thing Trump said in his astoundingly brief and surprisingly gracious concession speech was that he’s become really good friends with Huck of late.

  256. 256.

    Nate Dawg

    Chris Matthews: HRC has to win. If she loses, shes loses.

    Uh???? Say What?

    She could bounce-back in NH a la 2008.

    Or even later (See, e.g. her husband in 1992.)

  257. 257.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Matt McIrvin: It actually doesn’t, or not much anyway. I mean even to the people pretending it does, what they were going to say is pretty much preordained. Rubio coming in either first, second, or third, or anywhere really, is “great news for Rubio” (I just saw my first “Rubio exceeds expectations!” headline), Clinton winning by a little or losing by a little means that Democrats are doomed, and if Sanders doesn’t get 80 percent then it was clearly all a terrible, foolish dream.

  259. 259.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Nate Dawg: Hillary is probably going to lose the NH primary, though it’s another proportional contest and it’s not going to be a blowout, so that means less than it sounds like.

    South Carolina is probably the place where we get the stunning comeback story.

    Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, the very latest numbers show her widening her lead a bit again. I’m thinking people start calling it soon. Still pretty much a tie, though.

  260. 260.

    Bobby Thomson

    @Nate Dawg: Matthews is an idiot. Not news. Clinton already has won a majority of delegates according to the HuffPo tracker. The meaningless beauty contest matters only to really stupid people – like Chris Matthews.

    Sanders needed a big win tonight to set the narrative he wanted, and he didn’t get it. Even the slow to learn will eventually figure it out.

  261. 261.

    Nate Dawg

    @Matt McIrvin: Yes of course.

    I’m just saying that he is far too certain. Even if she lost both Iowa and NH, she’s going to clean up in SC and have a comeback narrative there.

    Also, don’t take NH polls at face value. Everyone was certain HRC was dead before NH primary last time, and see how that turned out.

    I don’t see Sanders having the path to victory Obama did unless mass amounts of AA voters in the south start turning out for him.

  263. 263.

    mike in dc

    Ted Cruz is what you get if you splice Joe McCarthy and Dick Nixon…and remove all of their good qualities.

  265. 265.

    Matt McIrvin

    Meanwhile, delegate-wise the Republican caucus is pretty much a three-way tie, but people are going to obsess about Cruz’s upset. Trump did underperform his polling.

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