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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Another Iowa Open Thread

Another Iowa Open Thread

by John Cole|  February 1, 20168:59 pm| 270 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016

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I wish I could pretend I didn’t care, but I am glued to the tv.

Tad Devine was on MSNBC a bit ago and said “In a way I feel like we (Sanders campaign) have already won… income inequality…” which to me sounds like the language of someone who is not expecting the result he wanted. I’ve heard from a couple sources that the Sanders ground campaign was a shitshow. And when I say sources, I read them from people I trust (I think maybe Al Giordano was one) but I can’t remember who exactly, not that I am trying to be all cool and mysterious and insidery.

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Previous Post: « Open Thread: Oh, the Suspense
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Reader Interactions

270Comments

  1. 1.

    gf120581

    February 1, 2016 at 9:03 pm

    Yeah, that comment from Devine doesn’t sound like one of optimism. But then, most everything Devine touches becomes a shitshow, doesn’t it?

    I’ve always suspected Iowa comes down to ground game and that’s why I’ve always favored Hillary. Obama beat her in 2008 because he had, let’s be honest, the best ground operation we’ve seen in recent election cycles, and she clearly learned from him (well, especially as the bulk of Obama’s machine is now at her disposal). Bernie has shown nothing of that kind and really, he screams much more of Dean in 2004, where, yeah, lots of folks showed up to his rallies, but then conveniently forgot to show up in the voting booth.

  2. 2.

    Pogonip

    February 1, 2016 at 9:04 pm

    I think the system needs adjusted. A few thousand people in Iowa in effect choose the president since whom the parties run is so heavily affected by Iowa.

    Is Thurston still barking?

    Baud/Jane 2016: Because It’s A Jungle Out There. And Because Thurston Won’t Stop Barking Unless They’re Elected.

  3. 3.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 9:05 pm

    The greatest, most advanced democracy in the world counts little pieces of paper while MSNBC looks on.

  4. 4.

    dr. bloor

    February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    Enthusiasm =/= Organization. Learned that one early.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    I’m surprised to hear about Sanders ground campaign if that is true. I had heard he had a good one.

  6. 6.

    schrodinger's cat

    February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    Why is Ted Cruz being so creepy?

  7. 7.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    @Helen: And you would prefer?

  8. 8.

    gf120581

    February 1, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    @Pogonip: I’d say that might be true on the Democratic side of things, but given the last two winners of the Iowa caucus on the GOP side were the two schmucks parading around with Trump Thursday night, maybe not so much for them.

  9. 9.

    Emerald

    February 1, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    Yep, it was Al Giordano. Best prognosticator of ’em all, methinks.

  10. 10.

    gf120581

    February 1, 2016 at 9:08 pm

    @Baud: I had my suspicions, namely because of who’s in charge over there. Again, I wouldn’t trust Tad Devine to run a corner lemonade stand without fucking it up.

  11. 11.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:08 pm

    @gf120581: I don’t like him either. But I don’t know the first thing about his capabilities.

  12. 12.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 9:09 pm

    @Pogonip: sign me up, these non-representative states get too much early attention, even if Iowa doesn’t have a great predictive track record.

    In this cycle the Village was doing Snoopy’s vulture schtick, dying to declare HRC wounded, maybe fatally

  13. 13.

    PsiFighter37

    February 1, 2016 at 9:11 pm

    If that exit poll breakdown I saw on 538 is true, Sanders is going to get smoked. Sub-45 population makes up just 30% of the attendees…no way is he going to win with that demographic breakdown.

    My original prediction on the Dem side is looking good so far…

  14. 14.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:11 pm

    So far, the early returns are close. I’m not sure why the Sanders camp is so pessimistic.

  15. 15.

    Anoniminous

    February 1, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    Looks like Sanders’ support was concentrated in a few locations, which would pump up the poll numbers but not translate into that many delegates to the county convention.

    ETA: that SyFy auto run ad is f—–g annoying.

  16. 16.

    gf120581

    February 1, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    @efgoldman: I wonder why people even think he has a choice. Being creepy is his state of being. I’ve heard Cruz compared to that creepy guy at the bar who repulses every woman he tries to hit on.

  17. 17.

    MomSense

    February 1, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    He’s a method actor.

  18. 18.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    REVOLUTION!

  19. 19.

    Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA

    February 1, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    CNN is talking up the tight 3-way race between Cruz, Trump and Rubio.

    Cruz: 30%
    Trump: 27%
    Rubio: 19%

  20. 20.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    Massive crowd at Sanders’s headquarters (photo)
    .

  21. 21.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 9:14 pm

    @gf120581: he worked for a lot of “establishment” candidates, including Bob Kerrey. I’m suspicious of born-again virgins.

    I’d bet fifty bucks theres an old grudge at play somewhere.

    I do like that SG song, though

  22. 22.

    Pogonip

    February 1, 2016 at 9:16 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Maybe Thurston is barking in indignation about the nutty caucus system. If that’s it, I’ll join him.

    Now that Cole is a yellow-dog Democrat, let’s hope his black dog isn’t barking “Cruz! Cruz! Cruz! Cruz!”

  23. 23.

    pseudonymous in nc

    February 1, 2016 at 9:17 pm

    @Pogonip:

    A few thousand people in Iowa in effect choose the president since whom the parties run is so heavily affected by Iowa.

    Well, I suppose it marks the beginning of the end of the pretense of campaigning for those who are only in it for the grift.

    (It’s ridiculous, and there was a little spat on the Twitters about Buzzfeed UK pointing this out, because apparently Britain has royalty so British people can’t make fun of a ridiculous electoral process that includes a son of a former head of state and a spouse of a former head of state. Um.)

    It has been a fucking massive transfer of wealth to the state of Iowa, and particularly to the local TV affiliates of the state of Iowa and environs. Corn subsidies, pig subsidies and caucus subsidies.

  24. 24.

    Zinsky

    February 1, 2016 at 9:17 pm

    God, that Ted Cruz is a vile human being. I swear that all I can think about when I see that ambulatory pile of puke is that Bill Murray had sex with a ferret and it took!

  25. 25.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    @Zinsky: That seems unfair to both Bill Murray and the ferret.

  26. 26.

    Pogonip

    February 1, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    @gf120581: He’d send me running for the door, that’s for sure.

    “Cruz! Cruz! Cruz! Cruz! Cruz! Cr–”

    Oh, shut up, Thurston.

  27. 27.

    El Caganer

    February 1, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    What Heidi Cruz sees when she looks around Iowa: https://youtu.be/9C4uTEEOJlM

  28. 28.

    Patricia Kayden

    February 1, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    I hate Cruz like the rest of you but that gif was too much. Lol!

    Looks like the Cuban Canadian is going to win tonight. Poor Trump. A foreigner is beating him. That red possum on his head must be steaming.

  29. 29.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    CNN (Key Race Alert):

    Vote count delayed as abacus breaks down

  30. 30.

    catclub

    February 1, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    @Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA: That third place guy is only close because the CNN guys say so.

    But it makes me even more interested in how the rest of the field is doing.
    Relative to early polling I would say Carson and Fiorina are the biggest losers.

    ETA: wrote before looking. Carson has held up relatively well.

  31. 31.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: That does make the GOP race more interesting. If Trump had won, I think he could have swept all the early states.

  32. 32.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    72% of people who love Martha Stewart voting for Hillary

    56% of people who love Kristen Stewart voting for Sanders

  33. 33.

    Tripod

    February 1, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    Isn’t it about time CNN takes Wolf Blitzer to a farm?

  34. 34.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    84% of full figured women voting for Hillary

    42% of waifs voting for Sanders

  35. 35.

    Tissue Thin Pseudonym

    February 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    @Tripod: How about the glue factory?

  36. 36.

    Eric S.

    February 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    I’m clearly missing something obvious. How do I contact one of the FP’s? Specifically Annie Laurie.

    Trying to set up an impromptu meet up tomorrow, 2/2, in Chicago with me and Elmo.

    6:30PM
    George Street Pub
    2858 N Halsted St.
    Chicago IL 60657

  37. 37.

    Luthe

    February 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    On another note, Adele has told the Trumpster to quit using her songs.

  38. 38.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    @Tripod: I don’t think they allow wolfs on a farm.

  39. 39.

    Iowa Old Lady

    February 1, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    Back from the caucus. We elected 4 delegates for Clinton and 3 for Sanders. For comparison, in 2008 we chose 3 for Obama, 2 for Clinton, and 2 for Edwards.

    156 people were there compared to 180 some in 2008. There was a long line of people registering as Democrats for the first time.

  40. 40.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    @Iowa Old Lady: Cool. Thanks for the report.

    ETA: And thanks for holding out for me until the last minute.

  41. 41.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    February 1, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    Anyone who isn’t following Propane Jane on twitter, should. There’s no one better at dissecting the race/class intersectionality of the two Dem candidates and their supporters. One of the better tweets of hers was, when Donald Trump insults women, threatens to bar Muslims and deport all the Mexicans, what’s Bernie going to counter with? Down with Goldman Sachs?

  42. 42.

    Just One More Canuck

    February 1, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    @Tripod: or out behind the barn

  43. 43.

    TheMightyTrowel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: speaking from personal experience 92% of the people who love Kirsten Stewart are (smoking hot) fat lesbians. You’re data may be flawed.

  44. 44.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    @Eric S.:

    Upper right:: “contact” “select an author”

  45. 45.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    57% of voters see dress as blue and black

    30% of voters see dress as gold and white

  46. 46.

    PaulW

    February 1, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    Jeb Bush is sixth.

    BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

  47. 47.

    Emerald

    February 1, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    @Iowa Old Lady: Where are you Iowa Old Lady? City or town?

  48. 48.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    @PaulW: Your HAHAHAs go waaaay off the margins. It makes it even funnier.

  49. 49.

    kc

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    Hahaha, Jeb Bush at 2 percent.

  50. 50.

    PaulW

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    LLAMA WINS

  51. 51.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    @Tripod: I’d recommend a glue factory.

  52. 52.

    Eric S.

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @Helen: Not working how I expect. I click on that and I get a blank email form. When I try to fill in an author I’m not getting a autofill email address.

  53. 53.

    Iowa Old Lady

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @Baud: Sorry I couldn’t come through for you.

  54. 54.

    Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @catclub:

    That third place guy is only close because the CNN guys say so.

    Exactly.

  55. 55.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    Nice MSNBC just got “the VA is so fucked up”!!!

  56. 56.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @TheMightyTrowel: 100% have good taste (gif)

  57. 57.

    PaulW

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    Finished watching the latest episode of the X-Files and while it was a good poignant episode it did kind of play to the fanservice just a little too much.

  58. 58.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    Caucus-goer uses phrase “fucked up”. MSNBC anchors clutch pearls, swoon on fainting couch.

  59. 59.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    “There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell— I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us too.”
    – Donald Trump

  60. 60.

    Bobby Thomson

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    @Anoniminous:

    that SyFy auto run ad is f—–g annoying

    My vote goes to whomever murders the people responsible for that.

  61. 61.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    @efgoldman: Hey, didja have any luck on the insurance thing?

  62. 62.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    LOL. There’s a kid on MSNBC calling the VA “FUCKED UP” and they didn’t/couldn’t block it. 3..2…1 MSNBC will apologize.

    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

  63. 63.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    what language scandal did I miss on MSNBC?

  64. 64.

    gwangung

    February 1, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    @Iowa Old Lady: Salute you who actually grind the sausage.

  65. 65.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    we watched Supergirl get into a fight with bizarro Supergirl.

    CBS News didn’t interrupt.

  66. 66.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    @Iowa Old Lady: It’s a long, hard road.

  67. 67.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Eric S.: You need to have a default email set up. When you hit an author it will launch.

  68. 68.

    Oldgold

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    Just returned from caucus. It was well attended. About twice the turnout we had in 2008. It went 2 to 1 for Hillary.

    The GOP turnout was huge. It was literally SRO.

  69. 69.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    John Cole @ Top:

    I’ve heard from a couple sources that the Sanders ground campaign was a shitshow.

    Sanders seem to be doing okay anyway. Not winning, but only losing by a small margin, which is pretty much how I expected him to do in Iowa.

    NY Times and TPM both have the Dem race at:

    51.0% Clinton
    48.5% Sanders

    With ~59% reporting

  70. 70.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: A female vet said the VA was fucked up.

  71. 71.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    New Hampshire primary ought to be held tomorrow instead of next week.

  72. 72.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Oldgold: Interesting. Thanks for the report.

  73. 73.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    CNN Entrance Poll (Key Race Alert):

    37% of Des Moines delegates cast for Deez Nuts

  74. 74.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    Casey Hunt wearing a nice motorcycle jacket.

  75. 75.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    @raven: Ah, thanks

  76. 76.

    Anya

    February 1, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    God! I hate every person on that CNN panel, except David Axelrod and Begala.

    Unless things change soon, Clinton will narrowly win. I want her to have a respectaful win because I hate the way MSM attacks her with republican talking points.

  77. 77.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    Do caucus sites ever merge? If so, how can you tell whether turnout is higher or lower?

  78. 78.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    The GOP race is essentially a three-way, with Master Debater on top, Would Sleep W/ Daughter in the middle, and Waterboy on the bottom:

    29.2% Master Debater
    26.2% Would Sleep w/ Daughter
    20.2% Water Boy

    61% reporting.

  79. 79.

    Patricia Kayden

    February 1, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: At least there are no hanging chads.

    @Luthe: Good for Adele. Trump should play Nugent or Country music. Expecting him to call Adele a loser as soon as Cruz gets done beating his behind tonight.

  80. 80.

    Trentrunner

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    @Germy: I saw that air live on CNN, and when they cut back to Brooke Baldwin (anchor), she laughed and shook her head, as if to say “Oh, that scamp Donald Trump, what will he do next? LOL.”

    THIS IS THE PROBLEM. If Trump gets the nomination, the minimizing and airbrushing of Trump’s fascism will be awful, and it might let him win.

  81. 81.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    Mr. frothy mix coming out at the bottom.

    How apt.

  82. 82.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: The apology by Brian Williams was hilarious. Fucking dweeb reporter had no business sticking his nose in there, he’s lucky she didn’t pop him.

  83. 83.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    @JGabriel: The vaunted Cruz ground game is coming through.

  84. 84.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    I wish I could pretend I didn’t care, but I am glued to the tv.

    Oh god now what happened.

    Oh you don’t mean literally.

    I was waiting for one of those great stories.

  85. 85.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Why is Ted Cruz being so creepy?

    How deep is the ocean? How high is the sky?

  86. 86.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    @JGabriel: Christ, the amazing thing is I knew exactly who you are talking about. I’ve been following this race too closely.

  87. 87.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:39 pm

    Gloria Borger just declared this may be a “big night” for Marco Rubio, a guy who will finish a distant 3d tonight.

    #liberalMediaBias

  88. 88.

    Loneoak

    February 1, 2016 at 9:39 pm

    Hey Pogonip, are you in Santa Cruz?

  89. 89.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    Why is Ted Cruz being so creepy?

    Tides go in, tides go out – you cant explain that

  90. 90.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: It is a big night for him. His grift train just got a lot longer.

  91. 91.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @Trentrunner: I agree; it’s appalling.

  92. 92.

    Ridnik Chrome

    February 1, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @JGabriel: They’re going to spin this as a victory for Rubio…

  93. 93.

    Iowa Old Lady

    February 1, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @Baud: I live in a metro area of about 100K people. We caucus by precinct. I’ve not seen caucuses merge but my experience is limited.

  94. 94.

    Bobby Thomson

    February 1, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I think you mean Marco “Fetch” Rubio.

  95. 95.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    Is there anyone in the media more in love with the sound of his own voice than Chris Matthews?

  96. 96.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Ha!

    and I don’t think we should be embarrassed or apologize for being political junkies

  97. 97.

    keith p

    February 1, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    It’ll never beat the all-time champion – John McCain feeling up Levi Johnston on the tarmac.

  98. 98.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Not when there are so many other things we need to apologize for.

  99. 99.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @raven

    She was talking about her specific situation as if it applied to the entire organization.

    Absent any details whatsoever about her status, her claims and her case, it may be she who is effed up.

  100. 100.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:43 pm

    @Iowa Old Lady: Thanks. I guess we’ll find out about turnout soon enough.

  101. 101.

    japa21

    February 1, 2016 at 9:43 pm

    Earlier I predicted a Cruz win by a couple percentage points. Looks like it may happen. But, it does look like Trump does get the voters out.

    That could push in the next few states into a dominant lead.

  102. 102.

    raven

    February 1, 2016 at 9:44 pm

    @NotMax: Oh I know, it was still funny. My dealings with the VA have been nothing but positive except that the expensive hearing aid doesn’t do much for me.

  103. 103.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:44 pm

    CNN (Key Race Alert):

    With 64% of Democratic vote in, Julia Louis-Dreyfus takes lead

  104. 104.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    If Trump loses, what will his supporters do with all their excess energy? Start punching people?

  105. 105.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    @Baud:

    The vaunted Cruz ground game is coming through.

    Apparently.

    Man on Dog is almost at the bottom of the pack, with only, umm – damn, he’s is so nondescript I can’t even come up with a nickname – Gilmore underneath him.

  106. 106.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    February 1, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    So, Carly Fiorina isn’t going to shock the world?

  107. 107.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    @dmsilev

    Bill O’Reilly?

  108. 108.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:46 pm

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne: She will, but not by winning elections.

  109. 109.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:46 pm

    O/T, and unbecomingly nasty of me, but: Apart from the occasional skeleton, has anyone ever been quite as painfully thin as Dana Bash? If she has an eating disorder, I apologise, ’cause that shit is serious, but there is something weird and scary about the way she looks. If the camera adds the customary and proverbial ten pounds, she must weigh in at about 75 lbs. Seriously, that is a worrisome level of thin.

  110. 110.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2016 at 9:47 pm

    According to the AP, Jim Gilmore has received 7 votes. Feel the Gilmentum!

  111. 111.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 9:48 pm

    Whatever happens will be great news for Crubirumpgelina.

  112. 112.

    amk

    February 1, 2016 at 9:48 pm

    If sanders keeps it within 3% (as it looks right now with 70% in), kudos to him and berniebots. Well done.

  113. 113.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:50 pm

    Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ 8m8 minutes ago

    We project that Ted Cruz has won the 2016 Iowa Caucus.

    747 retweets 357 likes

    THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR McCAIN!!

  114. 114.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Couldn’t happen to a creepier guy.

  115. 115.

    hilts

    February 1, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    @Helen:

    MSNBC needs to apologize for Chris Matthews first.

  116. 116.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    Dem Caucus:

    50.7% Clinton
    48.5% Sanders

    69.2% reporting

    GOP:

    28.8% Master Debater
    25.1% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    21.3% Water Boy

    57% reporting

  117. 117.

    Patricia Kayden

    February 1, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    @Baud: Yep. Trump isn’t going to win this one. He better turn up his rhetoric against Cruz before New Hampshire. I guess Sarah Palin’s word salad endorsement didn’t pay off.

  118. 118.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    Candid photo of Republicans trading votes in Iowa (photo)

  119. 119.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:53 pm

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    So, Carly Fiorina isn’t going to shock the world?

    No, but she’ll try her best to bankrupt it.

  120. 120.

    Oldgold

    February 1, 2016 at 9:53 pm

    Be careful when looking at GOP. My guess is western Iowa is currently over represented in the early totals. Same would be true with Democratic totals, but variance on vote would not be as pronounced. Western Iowa will heavily favor Cruz and skew slightly for Hillary.

  121. 121.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:53 pm

    @JGabriel: The Clinton-Sanders numbers seem to have been pretty stable up till this point.

    @Patricia Kayden: Cruz needed to win Iowa. Trump should win N.H. South Carolina will be interesting.

  122. 122.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:53 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    The Adventures of John G. Cole: The Epoxy Episode

  123. 123.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 9:54 pm

    @raven:

    That’s what my Dad says. He is able to choose between the VA and Medicare and he always chooses the VA. He LOVES his doc there.

  124. 124.

    Germy

    February 1, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    LOLGOP 27m27 minutes ago

    FOX NEWS: “LET’S PRETEND TO BE REALLY IMPRESSED BY MARCO RUBIO LOSING”

  125. 125.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    @raven: I don’t know anyone who truly likes their hearing aid. The technology is not there yet I guess.

  126. 126.

    Patricia Kayden

    February 1, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    @dmsilev: So sweet of his immediate family to be so loyal.

  127. 127.

    hilts

    February 1, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    CNN Breaking News: Martin O’Malley will suspend his campaign!

  128. 128.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    Kristen Wiig at SAG Awards (stunning outfit)

  129. 129.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    I never thought Trump would beat Cruz in Iowa – He’s not Christo-Fascist enough.

    Cruz will be all full of himself, but so were Huckabee and Santorum. Beside, Village press/media will hype Rubio’s 3rd place more than Cruz winning,

  130. 130.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    February 1, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    So,who drops out of the GOP race? Anybody? Do they all move onto NH. Do Rand and Ben continue their grifting tours? I’m thinking Lil Ricky drops out but who does he endorse? Does anybody want his endorsement?

  131. 131.

    SiubhanDuinne, Annoying Scoundrel

    February 1, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    Looks like O’Malley is going to suspend his campaign.

    Edit: Just like Hilts said two minutes earlier.

  132. 132.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    @hilts: Oh wow. I thought he might see it through to New Hampshire, especially with the new debates planned.

  133. 133.

    Ked

    February 1, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    Trump had a rally today? Good god, he really is trying to lose.

    All that said, Cruz is only holding serve here – Iowa was always going to go to a theocon, and Carson has grifted himself out of real contention. If Trump is within a few percent, then he’ll go stomp NH, SC is winnable, and I’m not sure I know how he sells in NV.

    Jeb: HA, HA.

    And of course none of these reported percentages really matter, because caucusing is always fucked up and the delegate numbers will be bizzaro-world.

  134. 134.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    February 1, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    @James E Powell:

    I think putting money in the communion plate probably swung some of the fundies away from him.

  135. 135.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    @dmsilev:

    According to the AP, Jim Gilmore has received 7 votes. Feel the Gilmentum!

    That’s so sad. I almost feel … nope, nothing, I don’t feel anything for Gilmore.

  136. 136.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    Right wingin!
    Bitter clingin!
    Proud clingin!

  137. 137.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    Who is at Bush HQ? Any comments from there?

  138. 138.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    So, looks like Senator Backpfeifengesicht is going to hold on to win. Opossum-on-head will probably be second, and Senator Proper Hydration will take the bronze.

    And MSNBC reporting O’Malley to suspend his campaign. Not much of a shock.

  139. 139.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Haha. You’re killing it tonight.

  140. 140.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    Not gonna lie. For Trump to actually place a close second in Iowa is telling about his appeal. No more speculation.

  141. 141.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    @Mai.naem.mobile: I think Santorum and Huckabee are toast. !Jeb, Kasich, Fiorina, and Paul need to do not-horribly in NH.

  142. 142.

    I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet

    February 1, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    @Baud: Rachel just said he ran out of money. Staff volunteering, has $100k cash on hand, etc.

    It was a learning experience for him. He will be stronger in 2024 if he decides to run…

    Cheers,
    Scott.
    (Man, that seems like a long way away – it’s hard to believe it’s only 8 years from now…)

  143. 143.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    So far, this is much less exciting than the razor-thin closeness of the 2012 Iowa contest between Man on Dog and Dog on Car.

    Sigh.

  144. 144.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 10:05 pm

    @Baud: Hopefully he’ll melt the fuck down over the loss. Cuz he’s a WINNER. The Biggest WINNER EVA.

  145. 145.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:05 pm

    @I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I hope it’s 2024 and not 2020.

  146. 146.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:06 pm

    They’re literally counting the ballots in a smoke-filled room (photo)

  147. 147.

    Irony Abounds

    February 1, 2016 at 10:06 pm

    @James E Powell: Yep, Rubio is going to be the big story on Fox News as it tries to stop Trump. I don’t see Cruz doing all that well in NH, but Rubio will get a big boost. After NH, Cruz is very likely going to be old news.

  148. 148.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:07 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    Gloria Borger just declared this may be a “big night” for Marco Rubio,

    Every time I see that name I think of a combination of Gloria Gaynor and Victor Borge.

  149. 149.

    hilts

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Who drops out of the GOP race?

    Gilmore, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, and Doc Carson

  150. 150.

    hkedi

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    @Helen: Nah, Trump will blow off the state as always picking the looser (he actually said that in a speech I heard on NPR, that Iowa hasn’t picked a winner in 16 years)

  151. 151.

    LesGS

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Very, very well played, sir.

  152. 152.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    CNN (BREAKING NEWS ALERT):

    Steve Harvey declares Trump new Miss Universe

  153. 153.

    amk

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    no doubt aqua boy rubio will be touted as da establishment candie.

  154. 154.

    Anne Laurie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    @NotMax:

    New Hampshire primary ought to be held tomorrow instead of next week.

    Have to give the NHampsters one more chance to milk the expense-account media — and from early reports, those guys may not be able to get out of DesMoines until later in the week!

  155. 155.

    PaulW

    February 1, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    @kc:

    No no you need to add about 150,000 more HAHAs for it to work. Start multiplying!

  156. 156.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    Dem Caucus tightening slightly:

    50.3% Clinton
    49.0% Sanders

    79% reporting

  157. 157.

    Ridnik Chrome

    February 1, 2016 at 10:11 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Every time I see it I think of the old “Chizborger, chizborger, chizborger…” routine from Saturday Night Live…

  158. 158.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:11 pm

    @JGabriel: Suspense!

  159. 159.

    satby

    February 1, 2016 at 10:12 pm

    @David *Rafael* Koch: I think I love you. Almost as much as Baud.

  160. 160.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:12 pm

    @Baud: LOL’d

  161. 161.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    @satby: Even though I underperformed in Iowa?

  162. 162.

    Mandalay

    February 1, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    WTF has happened to Steve Kornacki?

    He used to be great, but he’s sold his soul for a paycheck. He’s become a moron spewing meaningless drivel in front of a map. A less awful version of John King, but not by much.

  163. 163.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    @JGabriel:

    the 2012 Iowa contest between Man on Dog and Dog on Car.

    Or who can forget 2008’s Moose on Squirrel.

  164. 164.

    satby

    February 1, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    @Baud: I’m with the folks that say Super Tuesday is where you’ll break out.

  165. 165.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    @JGabriel: If Sanders does just barely lose, or even if he just barely wins, it seems like they made a mistake being so pessimistic these last few days. I tend to think it cost them some votes.

  166. 166.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    The GOP results have been stuck at 62% reporting for a while now.

    They must be taking a break to rig the results.

  167. 167.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    Chris Matthews’ hair becoming quite Trumpesque, ain’t it?

  168. 168.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    CNN (BREAKING NEWS ALERT):

    Iowa to Donald – YOU’RE FIRED!

  169. 169.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    @Mandalay: Yeah, the Bridgegate thing got to his head, I think.

    @satby: You’re the best, Satby.

  170. 170.

    PsiFighter37

    February 1, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    Trump is disappointing, but I guess having zero ground game only gets you so far.

    Clinton-Sanders also a lot tighter. Guess I was off on my predictions…rusty!

  171. 171.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:16 pm

    @satby: So it’s like high school, you’re saying.

  172. 172.

    mike in dc

    February 1, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    What if it’s an actual tie? How does that get spun?

  173. 173.

    Oldgold

    February 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    Trump got crushed in Dutch Reform/Republican stronghold of Sioux County. Cruz won. Trump was 4th.

  174. 174.

    satby

    February 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Sometimes it seems like all of life is an endless replay of high school, doesn’t it?

  175. 175.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    @Mandalay

    Victory of the battle to have technology make information crystal cloudy.

  176. 176.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome: Oh that’s funny. I never thought of that.

  177. 177.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    @mike in dc: The GOP and the media want Sanders because they think he’s easier to beat. It’s already close enough that it’ll be spun as a loss for Clinton.

  178. 178.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    More gorgeous gowns – Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones)

  179. 179.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    @Baud:

    If Sanders does just barely lose, or even if he just barely wins, it seems like they made a mistake being so pessimistic these last few days. I tend to think it cost them some votes.

    Maybe. To be honest. even as someone who is leaning Sanders, I didn’t expect him to win Iowa. Keeping it this close in Iowa is something of an achievement on its own.

    I suspect he’ll take NH, though.

    From that point on, I haven’t a clue yet how it will play out.

  180. 180.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    @JGabriel: Very much an achievement. I agree about N.H. I always expected that to be a cakewalk for him.

  181. 181.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    @satby: Well the breaking out does tend to heal up at some point at least. Though just replaced by other problems of course.

  182. 182.

    The Golux

    February 1, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @efgoldman:

    Why am i so short?

  183. 183.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    LOL Cruz projected winner.

  184. 184.

    SRW1

    February 1, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    If Rubio snatches 2nd place, is El Trumpo gonna assplode?

  185. 185.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    Dem Caucus still tightening:

    50.1% Clinton
    49.2% Sanders

    83% reporting

    Meanwhile, on the Republic side, Waterboy is closing in on Would Sleep w/ Daughter. This could be a close race for second place, folks!

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy

    83% reporting

  186. 186.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    @satby:

    I believe it was David Letterman who once said, the third grade never ends.

  187. 187.

    Helen

    February 1, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    The concession speech is gonna be EPIC

  188. 188.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ

    We also project that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus.

    314 retweets 149 likes

  189. 189.

    evap

    February 1, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    MSNBC called it for Cruz.

  190. 190.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Interesting. The race has been tightening. Who is Decision Desk?

  191. 191.

    Splitting Image

    February 1, 2016 at 10:26 pm

    80+% reporting for both parties now. Kudos to Sanders for keeping it so close. Cruz looks like the winner on the GOP side.

    Sanders might even pull it out. I suspect the last arrivals on the Democrat side will be the precincts with a (relatively) large number of O’Malley voters on the first ballot. I recall a poll suggesting they would break for Sanders.

    Rubio did way better than I expected.

  192. 192.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    Come on, Ted, finish him off. You know what they say, when your opponent is drowning, throw him an anchor, baby.

  193. 193.

    MobiusKlein

    February 1, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    I told my 14 yr old daughter to knee any man doing the Cruz creep move in the groin. Especially a politician. She asked about hitting, but I thought that would lead to more trouble.

  194. 194.

    Anoniminous

    February 1, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    99% reporting:

    Cruz 43,221 28%

    Trump 38,029 24%

    Rubio 35,791 23%

    Carson 14,489 9%

    Pau 7,046 4%

    JEB! 4,385 3% (Unlimited Corporate BRINKS TRUCKS didn’t do so good.)

    Kasich 2,953 2%

    Fiorina 2,833 2%

    Huckabee 2,730 2% (Note: won Iowa in 2008)

    Christie 2,713 2%

    Santorum 1,524 1% (Note: won Iowa, barely, in 2014)

    Another big loser are the various polling companies.

  195. 195.

    catclub

    February 1, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @James E Powell:

    the third grade never ends.

    I have a friend who refers to third grade as the best three years of my life.

  196. 196.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @evap

    (searches frantically through closets)

    Where the bloody heck are those water wings? We’ve gone off the deep end.

  197. 197.

    Ridnik Chrome

    February 1, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @JGabriel: The Village goes all in on Rubio now…

  198. 198.

    Tom65

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Clinton campaign declaring themselves the winners, but it’s clearly too close to call.

  199. 199.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    CNN (BREAKING NEWS ALERT):

    Trump Flips His Wig or Canuck Shocks Bowery Boy

  200. 200.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Huckster is out. Wonder who gets his peeps? Trumpy or Cruz?

  201. 201.

    seaboogie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    It has been a fucking massive transfer of wealth to the state of Iowa, and particularly to the local TV affiliates of the state of Iowa and environs. Corn subsidies, pig subsidies and caucus subsidies.

    Iowans overall not stupid (except for when they narrowly re-upped on Bush the Younger in ’04). Voted Dem in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.

  202. 202.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    As we round into the closing stretch of the GOP dog race, Master Debater maintains the lead. Water Boy, in third place, is closing in on Would Sleep W/ Daughter. Doctor Grifter follows distantly, in fourth place, and That Dog Is Not The Federal Government’s Responsibility, Jr. trails behind in fifth place:

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy
    9.3% Doctor Grifter
    4.5% That Dog Is Not The Federal Govt’s Responsibility, Jr.

    85% reporting

  203. 203.

    sigaba

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Songs shall be sung of how much Internet that GIF wins.

    All the Internet you say? I tell you there is not enough.

  204. 204.

    Cacti

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @Baud:

    Saw on 538 that more Hillary precincts remain outstanding than Sanders. That may be the reason.

  205. 205.

    Mandalay

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @JGabriel:

    Waterboy is closing in on Would Sleep w/ Daughter

    You win the thread.

  206. 206.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    Does the Bush Family Criminal Empire just sit by and watch that happen?

  207. 207.

    lgerard

    February 1, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    I may not have predicted the winner, but it seems that I did predict “the real winner”

  208. 208.

    SRW1

    February 1, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    Huck out.

  209. 209.

    Baud

    February 1, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    @Cacti: Makes sense. I remember that was the reason they called Ohio in 2012 which caused Karl Rove to melt down.

  210. 210.

    seaboogie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome: Yep.

  211. 211.

    David *Rafael* Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @Baud: Here’s their bio — they’been solid all night

  212. 212.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    @JGabriel: 27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy
    9.3% Doctor Grifter

    I’ll take Adam Sandler Film Fest for $600, Alex

  213. 213.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    @seaboogie:

    Elected Joni Ernst

  214. 214.

    scav

    February 1, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    @JGabriel: A (very close) three-way between Master Debater, Would Sleep W/ Daughter and Water Boy (would that necessarily be a four-way?) somehow brings me great glee, even as I try frantically not really to visualize it.

  215. 215.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    @James E Powell

    “It’s time to take the gloves off. And slip on fresh gloves.”

  216. 216.

    Mr. Twister

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Good one !

  217. 217.

    George Hayduke

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    Well, Iowa’s a draw. With proportional delegates.

    Drawing to the Clinton Juggernaut is the kind of shitshow I wouldn’t mind.

  218. 218.

    Anne Laurie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    New post up top, in O’Malley’s honor.

    @dmsilev:

    I think Santorum and Huckabee are toast.

    Santorum just said he’s staying in — going to South Carolina to stump the state.

    Earlier this week, Hucksterbee said he’d have a ‘big announcement’ next week; conventional wisdome is he’ll be endorsing Trump (presumably in return for some quasi-legal form of payment).

  219. 219.

    amk

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    @Baud: No, they lowered the expectations and won in the end.

  220. 220.

    Anoniminous

    February 1, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    huh

    Jefferson county went Sanders 72%. That was hard-core DLC territory when I was living in Iowa.

  221. 221.

    JGabriel

    February 1, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    The Village goes all in on Rubio now…

    Almost certainly. In a way, it looks like Rubio is going to be the biggest winner – he should get a lot more support from the part of the billionaire club that’s been holding out for a clear leader to emerge in the “establishment” faction, while the rest of the GOPers below get quietly sidled out by lack of funds.

    Cruz might pick up some billionaire support too.

    Not much will change for Trump, although if he loses NH too, I suspect his campaign will start to fall apart.

  222. 222.

    Ridnik Chrome

    February 1, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @James E Powell: Don’t think there’s a hell of a lot they can do. Their guy just finished behind Ben Carson and Rand Paul, with three percent of the vote…

  223. 223.

    Joe Bauers

    February 1, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    Hillary is the least inevitable inevitable candidate evar.

  224. 224.

    Cacti

    February 1, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    @Baud:

    If that’s the case, Sanders’ high water mark was 49.4%.

    He’s dropped back down to 49.3% now.

  225. 225.

    hilts

    February 1, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    @Mandalay:

    “A moron spewing meaningless drivel”

    This phrase could just as easily apply to Kornacki’s MSNBC colleagues Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, and Mika Brzezinski.

  226. 226.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    @scav:

    (would that necessarily be a four-way?)

    Technically, it would only be a three-way: four people, but each can go three ways.

    Then again, it doesn’t sound like Trump would share.

  227. 227.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:38 pm

    ¿Jeb?’s concession speech is really bitter:

    I can handle things, I’m smart! Not like everyone says — like dumb! I’m smart! And I want respect!

  228. 228.

    magurakurin

    February 1, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    @Tom65: It’s a tie on the Dem side. Not enough for either side to claim a big win. And in this case, I guess the tie would go to Sanders for doing so well. But he is still toast down the road. A tie in a two way Iowa race really does point to a paradigm breaking revolution of political alignments. I wouldn’t imagine that Sanders’ tying Clinton in Iowa is going to change many votes in SC, NC, FL, TX, NJ, PA, etc, or as some call it…the rest of the country. Hopefully Sanders’ youth voters will come along for the big win…but one wonders.

  229. 229.

    scav

    February 1, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    @different-church-lady: Clearly, there’s a lot for me to learn in practical higher math. How sad. (but not unexpected.)

  230. 230.

    Calouste

    February 1, 2016 at 10:41 pm

    @JGabriel: Trump might go third party if he doesn’t win NH. He’s got his story ready: he was leading big in the polls, so his losses “must have been caused” by the GOP establishment rigging the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear the first rumblings about that tonight. Of course, Trump going third party would be disastrous for the GOP.

  231. 231.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:41 pm

    LOS ANGELES — (Variety) Hillary Clinton to star as Snake Plissken in “Escape From Iowa”

  232. 232.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    @scav: It’s a very common mistake. The only reason I’m on it is I came up at the tail end of the New Math movement, and set theory was a big part of that.

  233. 233.

    seaboogie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    @JGabriel:

    27.7% Master Debater
    24.4% Would Sleep W/ Daughter
    23.0% Water Boy

    Awesome sobriquets. I think the repub poo-slinging is going to be pretty interesting for the next little while. And if Rubio maintains the spot he has now, he is going to become such a target that Flint is going to be sending him bottles of water.

  234. 234.

    mclaren

    February 1, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee. It’s common knowledge that Hillary can’t win the general election.

  235. 235.

    scav

    February 1, 2016 at 10:43 pm

    @different-church-lady: So New Math is what they’re calling it now :)

  236. 236.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2016 at 10:43 pm

    @Calouste:

    Trump going third party would be disastrous even more disatrous for the GOP.

    Annnnnnd…. fixed.

  237. 237.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 1, 2016 at 10:44 pm

    @mclaren: hasn’t stopped us before.

  238. 238.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2016 at 10:44 pm

    @mclaren: You are aware the nomination comes first, yes?

  239. 239.

    James E Powell

    February 1, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    @Ridnik Chrome:

    I’m assuming they have dossier on Rubio

  240. 240.

    Mandalay

    February 1, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    @hilts:

    This phrase could just as easily apply to Kornacki’s MSNBC colleagues Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, and Mika Brzezinski.

    Sure, but it has always been true for them. Not so for Kornacki. He was great until he hit the big time with his Bridgegate coverage. It’s been downhill all the way since then. Seeing him humiliate himself tonight was just sad.

  241. 241.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    live coverage of a speech by the guy who finished third in the caucus of a small rural state?

    @Joe Bauers: wasn’t inevitability one of the arguments against her?

  242. 242.

    NR

    February 1, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    @Cacti: Nope. He’s at 49.5% now and Hillary is below 50%.

  243. 243.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    February 1, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    From 538:

    Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 3m3 minutes ago

    A number of precincts out in Polk for Clinton (still haven’t reported). She’ll probably win this, but very close.

    12 retweets 9 likes

  244. 244.

    seaboogie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:50 pm

    @Joe Bauers:

    Hillary is the least inevitable inevitable candidate evar.

    For which I am glad. It gets her on her game – and she brings good game. She is that smart gal who tries hard and is wonky as all hell…

    None of us are as inspired by Hillary as we were by Obama, but I really respect her, and think that she would make a really good president – possibly even great.

  245. 245.

    ThresherK (GPad)

    February 1, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Am I supposed to be hearing William Conrad announcing the next episode on the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show?

  246. 246.

    Mandalay

    February 1, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    Bully boy Christie is getting a serious shit kicking in Iowa. He’s losing to Fiorina and Huckabee.

    Sweet.

  247. 247.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    @NR: oh man, somebody really put up the dingbat signal

  248. 248.

    Major Major Major Major

    February 1, 2016 at 10:54 pm

    How much does Bernie have to lose by for us to declare it a ‘win’?

  249. 249.

    randy khan

    February 1, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    How much does Bernie have to lose by for us to declare it a ‘win’?

    He’s won already because HRC didn’t win by 10 or 20.

  250. 250.

    seaboogie

    February 1, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    @mclaren:

    Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee. It’s common knowledge that Hillary can’t win the general election.

    mclaren has decreed it, and so it shall be. Common knowledge.

  251. 251.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    February 1, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    @Baud: They make decisions, sort of the decider(that term got a bit tarnished though).

  252. 252.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2016 at 11:01 pm

    Why does it matter who “wins” a super-close race in a caucus with proportional delegate assignment? Clinton and Sanders are going to get practically equal numbers of delegates regardless, and the remaining margin is going to be insignificant come convention time.

  253. 253.

    Bobby Thomson

    February 1, 2016 at 11:03 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: because reporters on this beat are stupid and lazy. SATSQ

  254. 254.

    mak

    February 1, 2016 at 11:07 pm

    @Anne Laurie: The most important and telling thing Trump said in his astoundingly brief and surprisingly gracious concession speech was that he’s become really good friends with Huck of late.

  255. 255.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    @Matt McIrvin

    Iowa and New Hampshire traditionally have not been selection processes so much as they serve as rejection contests.

  256. 256.

    Nate Dawg

    February 1, 2016 at 11:10 pm

    Chris Matthews: HRC has to win. If she loses, shes loses.

    Uh???? Say What?

    She could bounce-back in NH a la 2008.

    Or even later (See, e.g. her husband in 1992.)

  257. 257.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    February 1, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: It actually doesn’t, or not much anyway. I mean even to the people pretending it does, what they were going to say is pretty much preordained. Rubio coming in either first, second, or third, or anywhere really, is “great news for Rubio” (I just saw my first “Rubio exceeds expectations!” headline), Clinton winning by a little or losing by a little means that Democrats are doomed, and if Sanders doesn’t get 80 percent then it was clearly all a terrible, foolish dream.

  258. 258.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    @NotMax: Yeah, but the Democrat getting rejected here is O’Malley.

  259. 259.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    @Nate Dawg: Hillary is probably going to lose the NH primary, though it’s another proportional contest and it’s not going to be a blowout, so that means less than it sounds like.

    South Carolina is probably the place where we get the stunning comeback story.

    Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, the very latest numbers show her widening her lead a bit again. I’m thinking people start calling it soon. Still pretty much a tie, though.

  260. 260.

    Bobby Thomson

    February 1, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    @Nate Dawg: Matthews is an idiot. Not news. Clinton already has won a majority of delegates according to the HuffPo tracker. The meaningless beauty contest matters only to really stupid people – like Chris Matthews.

    Sanders needed a big win tonight to set the narrative he wanted, and he didn’t get it. Even the slow to learn will eventually figure it out.

  261. 261.

    Nate Dawg

    February 1, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Yes of course.

    I’m just saying that he is far too certain. Even if she lost both Iowa and NH, she’s going to clean up in SC and have a comeback narrative there.

    Also, don’t take NH polls at face value. Everyone was certain HRC was dead before NH primary last time, and see how that turned out.

    I don’t see Sanders having the path to victory Obama did unless mass amounts of AA voters in the south start turning out for him.

  262. 262.

    Bobby Thomson

    February 1, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: no, she will get blown out in New Hampshire and the usual suspects will hyperventilate until other states start voting.

  263. 263.

    mike in dc

    February 1, 2016 at 11:26 pm

    Ted Cruz is what you get if you splice Joe McCarthy and Dick Nixon…and remove all of their good qualities.

  264. 264.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 1, 2016 at 11:30 pm

    @efgoldman: Was traveling. Sorry you’re having so much trouble.

  265. 265.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2016 at 11:31 pm

    Meanwhile, delegate-wise the Republican caucus is pretty much a three-way tie, but people are going to obsess about Cruz’s upset. Trump did underperform his polling.

  266. 266.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 1, 2016 at 11:38 pm

    @mike in dc: I tried to retweet that and then realized I was on B-J.

  267. 267.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    February 1, 2016 at 11:39 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: if anybody can make the Village pay ayyention something the GOP doesn’t want them to, its Trump

  268. 268.

    stinger

    February 1, 2016 at 11:42 pm

    @mike in dc: I watched his victory speech just now, and was indeed reminded of Tricky Dick. Ugh.

  269. 269.

    Vhh

    February 2, 2016 at 12:10 am

    @Calouste: Donald–make my day. Please.

  270. 270.

    Arclite

    February 2, 2016 at 1:19 am

    Jesus F Christ, Cruz already looks like a child rapist. He doesn’t need to act like one too.

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