A bit of bad news. The CBO has reduced the number of people it projects that will be covered by the PPACA exchanges:
The Congressional Budget Office study said that 13 million people are likely to purchase policies through the Affordable Care Act this year, down about 8 million from estimates the agency made early last year. That’s based on updated enrollment figures through last month.
The Department of Health and Human Services had already flagged the lowered expectations last fall, predicting just 10 million customers signed up and paying premiums through online insurance markets by the end of 2016.
Other experts (like Charles Gaba) had always had significantly lower projections than the CBO.
Now the good news:
The uninsured rate is at record lows and will continue to decrease as Medicaid expansion continues and there is a slow uptick in Exchange enrollment. The biggest driver of the CBO drop is that they had been projecting for years that the Exchanges would cannibalize quite a bit of private coverage provided by employers. They thought that Employer Sponsored Coverage (ESI) would be less popular as employers could dump people on the Exchanges and pay employer mandate fees instead of premiums. That has not been happening.
So the short take away is that the law is achieving its goals with even less disruption than previously projected.