Hat tip to commenter “the Conster” for giving us a heads up about reports of a possible North Korean nuclear test. According to the BBC a 5.1 magnitude earthquake has been reported near sites in North Korea that had previously been used for nuclear weapons testing. This was about 30 miles from Punggye-ri, the site of previous nuclear tests and the US Geological Survey is reporting the quake at a depth of 10 kilometers. USGS is also, on the basis of Ambassador Rice’s remarks at the UN earlier this evening, reclassifying it from natural earthquake to man made nuclear event.
Needless to say this will be a fast moving and fluid story, so accounts are likely to change.
———Update———
The Guardian is reporting that the North Korean government has confirmed its fourth nuclear test conducted earlier today. The justification is its legal right to conduct such tests and an assertion that if the US doesn’t threaten North Korean sovereignty, then North Korea will not need to use nuclear weapons. The hat tip again goes to the Conster.
Baud
Send in Seth Rogan.
Baud
You need to ask Cole for a raise.
ETA: Edited subject b/c I thought this was a Betty Cracker post for some reason.
Cheryl Rofer
North Korea says it will make an announcement at 11pm Eastern time.
Omnes Omnibus
I wouldn’t be surprised if that depth estimate get revised. 10km is awfully deep – 1km is more likely.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: We’re supposed to get paid? Actually, right now I have time to do this stuff as I’m just consulting. I’m expecting start dates for new assignments and new orders in the next few weeks and then things will change a bit for me depending on which assignment I take. Since I can contribute a bit more now, I am. I don’t know how much I’ll be able to come February.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Wouldn’t surprise me either. Or the BBC put the decimal point in the wrong place.
Mai.naem.mobile
So the GOP can now turn to the.’Obama is a crafty but incompetent despotic communist musleemy leader’who is helping North Korea and Iran.
Cheryl Rofer
@Omnes Omnibus: 10 km is the USGS initial placeholder. China and South Korea are reporting zero depth.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cheryl Rofer: That makes even more sense.
JPL
@Mai.naem.mobile: Well the first time North Korea did this was under Bush, so .. yes
p.a.
I plead complete ignorance as to whether NK has agreed to no testing. If not, is this a big deal? We know they have it, they test what, every 4 years? And the tests are not atmospheric.
If they have broken a no-test agreement, what? More sanctions? Do they even care? They’ll just let more of their own people starve.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman:
No worries. I’m confident the team here can correctly evaluate foreign policy without any expert help. How hard can it be?
Ultraviolet Thunder
Oh, for goodness’ sake. I leave the country for 36 hours and the Commies are running amok.
Adam L Silverman
@p.a.: They’re not part of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They withdrew back in 2003. North Korea tends to do things for attention. In many ways, and especially given that it is the closest thing we have to a black box society, North Korean behavior is like a toddlers. When they don’t get attention, or feel that others are getting more, they act out. Then they get attention, even if its negative, and go back to whatever it is they normally do until the next tantrum. Of course they’re a toddler with a handful of nukes, so your mileage may very.
Baud
Where are they getting the uranium from?
BillinGlendaleCA
Somebody wants attention, I guess Lil Kim did get what he wanted for Christmas.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Its likely going to be a time issue. I don’t know which assignment yet, so I don’t know how much I can allocate to here. Right now I’m doing a lot more posts than I had anticipated – I had figured two to three a week. It’ll get worked out.
the Conster
I’m so ronery.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: From…Africa.
[/GWB impression]
benw
@Baud: I can – probably – find NK on a map. And once I find that, South Korea will be a cinch!
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: My understanding is that a lot of their initial tech and resources came from the Pakistanis, specifically from A.Q. Khan and his network.
Baud
This seems like AP scaremongering.
Reaching the U.S. requires developments in missile tech, not nuclear testing, no?
@Adam L Silverman: Are they getting new supplies from somewhere?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Great minds…Heh! Being that they don’t have much a delivery system and we have no indications that they can actually mount one of their nukes as a payload(if their rocket didn’t blow up on the launchpad or while in first stage flight), it’s to get attention, primarily from South Korea and Japan.
Ultraviolet Thunder
Hey, OT question. There are (theoretically) these two fruits in my hotel room. Context indicates they’re edible but I have no idea what they are.
Golf ball sized. Smooth, spherical, pale yellow. With a flower-thing end and a stem-thing end.
Extremely fragrant. Scent somewhere between citrus and baby armpit.
Am I being trolled by Room Service, or is this a thing I should wash and taste?
BillinGlendaleCA
@benw: It’s south of North Korea.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
Are they signalling their support for Y’all Qaeda, or their willingness to nuke the entire bird sanctuary to dispose of them?
Renie
@Adam L Silverman: I hope you do have some time to continue posting. I LOVE your posts, always topical and so informative.
I hope President Baud offers you a position in his Administration!
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@BillinGlendaleCA: That makes more sense than the directional suburbs of St. Paul.
Adam L Silverman
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Do they have a peel and look like a lemon? Then they’re citrons. Since I have no idea where you are, I’m just guessing.
MomSense
Didn’t Trump just say something about North Korea using nukes on Sunday? He’s going to be even more insufferable tomorrow.
Adam L Silverman
@Renie: I’ll make the time, it just won’t be three or four posts a day…
BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: I think he’s in Mexico, or Oregon.
ETA: If it’s Oregon, maybe he’s delivering snacks to Y’all Quada.
Ultraviolet Thunder
@Adam L Silverman:
Central Mexico. I know who to ask about this but he’s unavailable.
Like a rounder, smoother lighter skinned lemon.
But more importantly, should I try to eat this? I mean, Citron sounds like mosquito repellent.
Zinsky
Maybe we can convince the North Koreans to invite Donald Trump for a close, very close observation of their next nuke test!
benw
@BillinGlendaleCA: whoa.
FlyingToaster
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Dulcia Citron, I bet. They’re fairly sour; I’d juice them and add ice and sugar, myself.
PeakVT
The CTBTO and the US DOD seismic monitoring center(s) probably already know whether or not the event was actually a test based on the shape of the seismic waveforms. Secondary confirmation from atmospheric sampling will take a few days, though. If NK was really, really sloppy there may be infrasound detected as well, but that’s unlikely.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Zinsky: tRump knows Dennis Rodman and he’s one of Lil Kim’s besties.
ETA: So there’s hope.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I honestly don’t know. I haven’t seen anything in open source news reports about it. They have continually tried to refine their missile technology, but they don’t seem to be making much progress. Every test is a failure. They have some stuff that could hit South Korea, which would be very bad. Usually China is able to reign them in with enticements and threats.
This may have something to do with the projected famine. Kim and his inner circle may be doing this to get additional food aid from the Chinese. It would fit the pattern.
Cheryl Rofer
Looks like it is 10kT from early calculations. DPRK says it was a successful test of a hydrogen bomb. But 10 kT is a hydrogen bomb fizzle.
Adam L Silverman
@Ultraviolet Thunder: Yep, that sounds like a citron.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citron
They’re used in the Sukkot (Tabernacles) ritual in Judaism.
the Conster
It was a hydrogen bomb, NK confirms.
Gin & Tonic
@BillinGlendaleCA: There’s a great photo of it (DPRK) here.
Ultraviolet Thunder
@FlyingToaster:
Muchas Gracias. I sliced it open and it smells amazing inside.
I’m going to try it. And go away. Sorry for the thread-jack. Blame Bohemia Obscura and long days.
Wow, that is full of super hard little seeds like buckshot but the pulp is delicious.
Bus to Queretaro tomorrow, plane to Hermosillo Thursday, then home to Detroit Friday if I make it.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: They don’t need nukes to give South Korea a bad day, artillery would do just fine. Downtown Seoul is only about 20 miles from the DMZ.
Jay C
@Baud: @Adam L Silverman:
Well, according to Wikipedia, N. Korea seems to have enough of its own uranium resources, which they process into enriched uranium and plutonium using the few reactors they have. It’s all a bit technical for me, but it seems like even though the NorKs only have the capacity to produce a few kg of plutonium a year, it’s enough, as they don’t really need much to construct the few bombs they have.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Gin & Tonic: Heh, I’ve got my own photos.
BillinGlendaleCA
@the Conster: ….Riiiiggghhhtttt.
Cheryl Rofer
Comment in moderation:
Looks like it is 10kT from early calculations. DPRK says it was a successful test of a hydrogen bomb. But 10 kT is a hydrogen bomb fizzle.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Yeah, I wouldn’t trust NK info either, but I don’t know how difficult it is to upscale from atomic to hydrogen.
Adam L Silverman
@the Conster: updated
Baud
I’m starting to think she’s a NK spy.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: It is a very significant difference.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I’ve seen their “news” broadcasts, I don’t would trust a thing they say. From my understanding(college Chemistry level) you’d need a atomic bomb + the appropriate hydrogen isotopes to produce a hydrogen bomb. It’s not just scaling up the process from producing an atomic bomb.
PeakVT
NK may have tried to detonate a thermonuclear (fission-fusion) bomb but since they’ve barely been able to get their fission bombs to work, I doubt they got any yield from the fusion portion, if such a thing even existed.
NK statements exceed even Trump in the number of lies per syllable.
Baud
Random tweet says this
catclub
@Baud:
My understanding is that it is a BIG deal. Hydrogen bomb needs a fission bomb as a fuse, then you need a properly designed bit to focus the x-rays from the fission bomb on the fusion (hydrogen) target.
and everything happens really fast. I am pretty sure the focussing bit is called a hohlraum.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@PeakVT: There are ways of doing things to fission bombs to enhance their power without having a full fusion reaction. NK may be trying to do something like this and calling it a fusion weapon. Wikipedia
NK wouldn’t need to put a 10 MT fusion bomb on a rocket to do a lot of damage, and if they have any sense (hard to say) they wouldn’t waste the effort on such a thing.
I’m just going on what I’ve read – YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
BillinGlendaleCA
Also, IIRC Kim Jung Un’s birthday is Friday.
Gin & Tonic
@catclub: The material which undergoes fusion is not hydrogen, it is usually lithium deuteride.
“Boosted fission” is not “fusion.”
anyway, those interested whould read Richard Rhodes’ Dark Sun.
GregB
*North Korea wouldn’t dare test a nuke when there’s a strong Republican in the Oval Office!
*Knowing full well they first tested their nukes when C Plus Augustus was running the show.
Satby
@BillinGlendaleCA: and he wanted Fall Out Boy to play at his party?
Yeah, lame… I gotta go to bed.
catclub
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: So now I know there is more than one way to skin that atomic cat.
BillinGlendaleCA
@GregB:
I’m sure, like 9-11, that was in Bill Clinton’s third term, or like the financial meltdown in Obama’s 0th term.
catclub
@GregB:
running the show is VERY generous.
TOP123
@Adam L Silverman: Whilst we’re discussing your not being paid, allow me to add several imaginary magic beans to your tip jar, and thank you for answering my question in an earlier post, and pointing me to Commins on Wahhabism and Saudi Arabia.
C.S.
@Ultraviolet Thunder:
Guava, perhaps?
PeakVT
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Point taken, but by general convention the phrase “hydrogen bomb” means a fission-fusion device, and that’s phrase being bandied about. It would absolutely not surprise me one bit if they are selling a test of a boosted device as a test of a proper thermonuclear bomb.
eemom
I guess it’s OT, but I find it appalling when anyone thinks there’s anything remotely joke-worthy about North Korea, a nation where the conditions of Nazi Germany have been visited on the people for 60 years, and nobody in the world gives a shit.
p.a.
@Adam L Silverman: Barter economy I believe. Pakistan (our ally, yes?) traded its weapons expertise, NK its missile tech. Boom for zoom.
Mnemosyne
@PeakVT:
Thanks — I was wondering how, in the ring of fire, we could tell the difference between an earthquake and a detonation from a distance.
Prescott Cactus
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you very much !
Omnes Omnibus
@PeakVT: Atmospheric testing will also indicate what kind of device it was.
? Martin
@eemom: Everyone in the world gives a shit. Problem is we give a shit about SK as well, and the only solution to NK that anyone can come up with is to nuke them without provocation.
? Martin
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Countries don’t pursue nukes to nuke people. They pursue nukes because we (the UNSC nations) don’t fuck with nuclear powers.
Adam L Silverman
@TOP123: Happy to help. And you are quite welcome.
Dmbeaster
@Baud: there are probably viable deposits there. Uranium is more abundant in the crust than many other metals (like gold and silver).
Adam L Silverman
@p.a.: Sounds about right. There is also no telling who the Israelis have sold or traded tech with. And remember they stole a bunch of our tech and materials to get to their own breakout capability. I’m pretty well convinced that one of the reasons that the Israelis are constantly freaking out about a potential Iranian nuclear weapon is that someone put everything they’ve sold to the Iranians over the years – going back to the days of the Shah – both over and under the table into a spreadsheet and then asked someone knowledgeable what the Iranians could actually do with it. And the someone knowledgable got a very, very upset tummy…
Adam L Silverman
@eemom: I’m not sure who you’re referring to, but there is nothing funny about this. And I’ve made some inputs about just how difficult the lift will be once the government finally collapses and someone from the outside has to come in and help to stabilize things. You’ve got an impoverished – health, nutrition, education, information – population that has been indoctrinated for multiple generations about how everyone is out to get them and is evil. They’re essentially completely cut off as well. This means that whoever shows up to provide relief, and my guess is it’ll be the Chinese and the US, is going to have a very hard time helping. Just trying to provide basic nutritional aid is going to be met with stiff resistance derived from paranoia and fear. Its going to be a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.
Edward Marshall
I’m not sure if you realize this, but Cheryl Rofer is an extremely respected scientist from Livermore and if you would like a voice on nuclear weapons she would make one hell of a front pager. She blogs at nucleardiner.wordpress.com and as someone who works in the field I read her every day.
Dmbeaster
@Mnemosyne: you can tell the difference based on the various types of waves created by each. Earthquakes produce many types of waves, including surface waves. Undergroundd nuclear explosions do not produce surface waves, and the “body waves” and p waves of earthquakes have a higher frequency than for explosions. There is a ton of data from all the testing previously done.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@? Martin: Yeahbut, nuclear weapons only work as a deterrent if people are confident that they work on a delivery vehicle, and if there’s a credible threat that they’ll be used.
India and Pakistan haven’t exactly been peaceful neighbors even after getting The Bomb.
And NK was regarded as a dangerous country long before they got The Bomb.
But, yeah, it makes countries think twice before doing something like invading. Of course, if Kim or his generals were crazy enough to actually try to use a nuclear weapon against anyone, they would quickly find out that the regime was doomed. (A handful of nuclear weapons wouldn’t protect them from massive retaliation.)
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who thinks that Kim is playing the only cards he has to try to gain attention, stature, and to try wring concessions out of his richer neighbors.)
Adam L Silverman
@Edward Marshall: You’ll have to take this up with our beloved proprietor. I just put up the post about it, I have no authority to recruit talent.
Edward Marshall
@John Cole Check out Cheryl Rofer. She is the smartest people ever to come out of Livermore Labs and knows more about nuclear weapons than anyone on earth. Offer her a spot. Nuclear weapons are unfortunately going to become more and more of our policy discussions.
voldemort
@Ultraviolet Thunder: it is a passion fruit, or what we call lilikoi in hawaii (NotMax can attest).
mclaren
Obligatory satirical North Korean silliness.
Cermet
Don’t believe they have a hydrogen bomb – their standard fission bomb was and remains a joke compared to even the first Amerikan bomb; that Amerikan bomb was well over 10 kilotons but the Northern Mass murder of Diarrhea: aka North Korea, was barely 1-2 kilotons. More likely just an earth quake created by the weaken rock strata (from previous bomb work)…ok, maybe another fission bomb that they tried to make a real hydrogen bomb but only the trigger bomb (fission) created the vast majority of the blast; maybe, a minuscule amount of hydrogen was fused so technically they did make a tiny fusion device but still only a few kilotons of yield.
Stan
@? Martin: Right. We could take out their military capabilities in a couple hours, but in the first 20 minutes they might nuke South Korea or Japan….tough problem there.
Stan
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
The delivery vehicle need not be a missile. An ordinary shipping container would work perfectly well, sent on an ordinary ship to any foreign harbor.
Cheryl Rofer
@Edward Marshall: Thanks! But I worked at Los Alamos, not Livermore. That’s an important distinction to both sides, er, labs.
Adam L Silverman is doing a great job as a front-pager in the areas I cover. I mostly lurk and occasionally have something to add.
maya
@GregB:
That’s Legacy C Plus Augustus, the equivalent of D Minus Jones.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Stan: How would that work, exactly?
1) Kim has a secret program to build a bomb and stick it on a shipping container.
2)
3) Explosion at American port
What is step 2?
Some ship leaves a North Korean port and just trundles up to an American port without being stopped for inspection? It is detonated remotely, somehow, inside a metal shipping container that acts like a Faraday cage? Agents live in the shipping container during the days/weeks it takes to cross the Pacific? What?
It’s pretty easy to follow a ship back to its home port and figure out who is responsible.
I don’t see a reasonable Step 2.
And then, after Step 3, what happens next?
Cheers,
Scott.