Huge, huge props to Speaker Ryan for announcing the budget deal in the middle of the debate. I'm honestly impressed by the timing.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) December 16, 2015
Quick note: THANKYOUTHANKYOUTHANKYOU Alain the Site Fixer, with the SSL thingie turned off I once again have access to all my beloved FYWP click-crutches. (Which means that I could put a page break on my last post, so now all the rest of you can thank Alain as well.)
Meanwhile, per the Washington Post, company paper for the town whose monopoly industry is politics:
Congressional leaders on Tuesday night reached agreement on a year-end spending and tax deal that would prevent a government shutdown and extend a series of tax breaks that benefit businesses and individuals, according to lawmakers.
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) walked members of the House GOP conference through the deal at a meeting Tuesday night.
“Paul Ryan made a compelling case to support it tonight,” Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.) said after leaving the session. “He feels that it’s time to start fresh, that we increase our hand and we’ll have better negotiating position if we have a strong Republican vote this year.”…
The House and Senate are expected to pass the legislation by the end of the week. With government spending authority set to expire at the end of Wednesday, however, leaders plan to quickly move another stop-gap spending bill that would give Congress until Dec. 22 to clear the year-end spending bill, more time than is likely needed.
The sweeping agreement that came after weeks of bipartisan negotiations is the broadest tax and spending deal since the January 2013 “fiscal cliff” agreement, which prevented automatic spending cuts from taking effect and shielded middle-class workers from tax increases while allowing some increases on the wealthy.
Both parties will be able to claim policy victories while bemoaning what also made it in or was left out…
Ryan has committed to allowing members three days to review the agreement, setting up a potential Thursday vote in the House.
The tax discussions were closely linked with talks on the year-end appropriations bill as negotiators attempted to trade priorities across the two must-pass bills.
But House leaders are expected to have to rely on some procedural maneuvers to pass the package, by holding separate votes on the tax and spending parts of the deal. If both pass they would likely be rolled into one package for the Senate to consider later this week.
But House leaders are expected to have to rely on some procedural maneuvers to pass the package, by holding separate votes on the tax and spending parts of the deal. If both pass they would likely be rolled into one package for the Senate to consider later this week.
The tax break package would cost about $650 billion and extend around 50 credits for businesses and individuals while also delaying until 2017 a tax on medical device manufacturers. The approximately $1.1 trillion appropriations package would fund the government for the remainder of fiscal 2016 and contains a two-year delay of the Affordable Care Act’s so-called Cadillac Tax on expensive employer-sponsored health care plans as well as a delay of a tax on health insurance plan purchases…
Much more detail at the link, including the usual caveats about past performance not predicting future results, and chest-thumping from the usual malcontents in the Freedumb Carcass…
New Speaker Ryan promised to change things but leaders just posted 2000-page omnibus that will quickly be enacted. https://t.co/kUaUkvVRuA
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 16, 2015
***********
Apart from nursing hangovers from last night’s various “nostalgia-novelty” performances, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Mike in NC
Sitting at a lounge in Paris waiting for a connecting flight. Charles DeGaulle Airport is a nightmare to get around in. Could use some sleep and a stiff drink.
Another Holocene Human
Who is “Member of the Knesset” Raju?
Another Holocene Human
@Mike in NC: Seconded on Charles de Gaulle. I think Dave Barry wrote a quip about it years ago. I like to joke that the labyrinthine airport reflects perfectly the French bureaucratic mind. Changing flights there was truly one of the wackiest airport experiences of my life.
Mary G
I am wondering if defunding Planned Parenthood is in there, and if not, what the “Freedom” caucus will do about it .
Satby
Slept through the debate discussion last night but I’ve been up since 2:30 with my epileptic dog Rosie, who had a series of seizures from then until about 4:30. At which point I just started the coffeemaker. My first day on my brand new job should be awesome.
Edited to add: I see that links to our own sites in our nyms is still not working in mobile.
Marc
Just got home from work – last night was the final night of our ‘push’ to get our quota done. Didn’t help that the last drop came at 11pm, thus me getting home at 3am. But hey, at least I get paid by the hour.
As for airports, my favorite was the one in Colorado Springs. In the time it takes you to negotiate the new Denver airport, you could have driven to Denver in your rental car from the springs.
NotMax
Such as:
Mustang Bobby
Tonight’s the night of the reading of my new play “All Together Now” here in Miami at Mina’s Mediterraneo bistro; dinner and a show. Last night at the first and only rehearsal, I was really impressed by the cast that the director pulled together, and it was the first time I’d heard the play read out loud other than through the voices in my head. We made very few line changes (mainly typos by me) and I’m excited to see how it goes in front of a live audience.
raven
@Mustang Bobby: “River” on netxflix is all about voices in the head. They even have a self-help group!
Good luck!
Mustang Bobby
@raven: Voices in the head is a feature, not a bug, for a writer. :)
David Koch
Drudge Poll – Who Won the Debate:
TRUMP……………..45.74%
CRUZ ………………25.01%
PAUL………………..13.38%
RUBIO………………..7.6%
CHRISTIE………….2.41%
FIORINA……………1.93%
¿JEB ?………………1.65% ◄
CARSON…………..1.55%
KASICH…………….0.73%
Total Votes: 222,578
raven
@Mustang Bobby: I’ve enjoyed this series but they tend to carry if a bit too far with about 7 dead people who he talks with.
Schlemazel
I posted this last night but it got swallowed b the debate. There are many really hilarious laughs in this thread.
real Calvin & Hobbes cartoons with Calvin replaced by Trunp
https://www.reddit.com/r/donaldandhobbes
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone :)
BillinGlendaleCA
@David Koch: Joe of the Morning agree.
ETA: Halperin, OTOH.
rikyrah
@David Koch:
You continue to tickle me everytime you post a GOP Poll. Everytime I see the rejection of ‘The Smart One’, it makes me smile.
OzarkHillbilly
@Mustang Bobby: Break a leg!
BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: Heh.
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: HAHAHA!
Chyron HR
@David Koch:
2 Delusional 2 Quit
Schlemazel
@Schlemazel:
I posted this last night but it got swallowed b the debate. There are many really hilarious laughs in this thread.
real Calvin & Hobbes cartoons with Calvin replaced by Trump
BTW – the linky action is still borked.
Baud
@Satby:
Poor doggie. Good luck today.
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
you feel lucky? Well, do ya? – dirty harry
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Who does Halperin think won?
Schlemazel
@Marc:
Airports are not designed for human use. They have not gotten better with the new security rules added on top.
2 of my favorites:
Fargo ND – where the mag stripes on credit cards set off the metal detector
\Green Bay WI – the TSA are part time, they only show up for flights then leave. The coffee shop & restaurant is outside the secure area so if your flight is delayed you cannot leave the area to buy a cup of coffee because you can’t get back in.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: He gave letter grades, jeb?, the joisey whale and someone else got B+’s, tRump got a B, Dr. Ben got a C.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Marc: I like DIA, much better than Stapleton.
ETA: My least favorite airport(other than LAX) is DFW. I HATE DFW.
OzarkHillbilly
My ‘favorite’ airport experience was Madrid the day after ETA blew up a parking garage, had a 4 or 5 hour layover and barely made our flight.
JPL
Last night I streamed the debate for a few minutes. Christi blamed ISIS on Iran. I can’t figure that one out.
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: Sounds like fun. lol
Mike J
@Schlemazel: Easier to read multiple if you just use the imgur gallery. Click on the first one, use the arrow keys to move through them all.
Elizabelle
@BillinGlendaleCA:
C for cray cray?
Morning all. Delighted to have not watched a moment or soundbite from the “debate.”
It disturbs me too much to see what whackjobs and liars (Republicans, all) are up for president, and that there’s a not-zero chance one will be elected, especially with a special boost by the GOP-fellating media at the last minute, sucking its Citizens United well dry.
I’m sad we won’t have President Obama’s sane and mostly wise decisions. It’s like we are living in a house that is sturdy and safe, for now, although buffeted by terrible and crazy winds, and the peeps you saw last night want to remove the house and tell us the winds do not exist.
Always aware of that storm outside.
BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly: We arrived in Pepeeti right after the Tahitians tried to burn the airport down. Could smell the smoke in the terminal, the only thing they actually burned down was a souvenir stand by the parking lot. I think they were pissed about French nuclear testing.
Randy P
@Another Holocene Human: We’ve sworn off changing planes at De Gaulle for the same reason, a years-ago nightmare of bus rides and long lines that almost caused us to miss our connection.
But then we repeated the experience a few months ago at Heathrow. 90 minute connection, and despite being rushed to the front of one of the lines, the gate was closed by the time we got to it. They had to re-open it for us. Also an overzealous security decided that our rush to the gate at the last minute made us suspicious, despite the fact that HEATHROW had caused our rush. And we left a bag at the (unnecessary) security check-in.
Elizabelle
@Satby: Good luck with the brand new job! Tell us how it went.
And hugs to the doggie. One of you gets to sleep the rest of the day. :)
Schlemazel
@Mike J:
I have a ‘hover’ app on chrome so if I hover over the image appears full size. but everyone else will appreciate that advice/
Rashi
If there be any consensus within the GOP that Trump won this debate then debates are proven farce.
David Koch
Unless they find a dead girl or live boy, Trump is their nominee.
And to that I say: congratulations on your landslide victory, Madam President.
BillinGlendaleCA
@David Koch: Trump/Cruz, what could go wrong?
Mustang Bobby
@BillinGlendaleCA: I concur on DFW. The protocol is the closer your connection, the further apart the gates.
Second on my despise list is Miami International (MIA). It’s gotten better in the last 20 years, but it is fully in compliance with the rule that there must always be some sort of construction going on somewhere that fusterclucks the traffic.
Elizabelle
It’s just polls at this point. Not a single vote has been cast.
Botsplainer
Last full day in Key West – a great trip. Yesterday’s wreck dives on the Vandenburg were phenomenal, wife and I both loved it. Now I’m off for some solo lobster dives.
Hope I get 3-4 bugs this morning.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Mustang Bobby: When my wife became a citizen, I gave her a trip to DC flying through DFW. The flight from LAX landed at the north gate in terminal 2 and the flight to DC National departed from the southernmost gate in terminal 3.
ETA: She wondered when I planned the flight, why I left over an hour for the connection.
Mustang Bobby
@Botsplainer: Welcome to my corner of the world. Glad you had a good time.
amk
@David Koch: 222,578 votes? Really? The turnout seems impressive. (or completely made up, drudge style)
Sherparick
@JPL: Because neocons want to fight Iran and invade Iraq and Syria fight the Iranian backed (Shia/Alawite) regimes in both places. DAESH/ISIS is the excuse. See recent talks by Rubio as well as Christie on the subject.
I guess the argument is that the current Shia majority Government in Iraq, backed by Iran and the Shia militias which Iran supports, oppressed and disenfranchised the Sunni minority (who are the majority in Western Iraq and the upper Euphrates valley), who then became the sea in which the ISIS fishes swim. Of course, but for our invasion and overthrow of Saddam in 2003, and the neocons Bremer, Feith, and Wolfowitz following the advice of their “friend” Chalabai to dissolve the Iraqi and Army and remove all “Baath” (Sunni) from the Iraqi Government, thereby turning out an Iraqi elite that had governed the place since the Ottoman Turks, the pro-Iranian Shia Government of Iraq would not be in power. So the guys who really created ISIS is the U.S., Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Bremer, and the Neo-con gang.
Baud
@Elizabelle: So you’re saying I have a chance.
Marc
@BillinGlendaleCA: When I had to travel to Oxnard, I’d always go to Burbank. Never LAX, NEVER!
David Koch
@amk: liberal blogosphere/twitter is big and spread out. Wingerville is narrow and concentrated, especially among the olds.
Baud
@Marc: I’ve had good luck at LAX. Except for the rental car process.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Marc: The only reason I’ll fly out of LAX is international flights; I’m quite close to BUR.
ETA: I guess Hawaii too.
JPL
@Sherparick: What about the Saudi’s? From the few minutes that I streamed, it seemed that they all want to bomb, bomb, bomb. Was there any mention of raising taxes to pay for it?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
I think you’re confusing LAX with LAS. You can have good luck on the machines in LAS.
Elmo
@Marc: yikes, there’s no way I’d ever get a direct flight to Burbank tho. And changing planes is the third circle of hell, right before the DMV.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I’ve actually had bad (nongambling) experiences at LAS.
Iowa Old Lady
@Mike in NC: I spent 24 hours in De Gaulle in September. You have my sympathy.
Marc
For me it was PHX to BUR and back, no international travel. I’ve done connections in LAX going to HNL, but for domestic travel into the area, I’ll book BUR. Don’t need to go to Oxnard anymore, so I don’t see going there anytime soon.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Marc: Why would you need to go to Oxnard?
Marc
@BillinGlendaleCA: Air National Guard Base at Port Hueneme.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: OK. I’ll give you a link to a new photo album as consolation for that:
Glendale Peak to Mt. Hollywood via the Hogback trail.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Marc: Ah, my dad worked at Pt. Mugu in the 60’s and early 70’s.
debbie
@Satby:
Good luck on the new job! Will you be working from home?
JMG
Here’s a tip for those making connections in Europe who’re understandably unhappy with Charles DeGaulle. Try Zurich. Much more manageable and flights to and from just about every city in France.
bystander
DeGaulle in the summer is even worse than normal. Crappy a/c and those four story high windows…you feel like a bug being tortured under a magnifying glass. Orly, whenever possible.
What I’m really tired of is the media treating these repubnuts as if they were serious candidates. Sickening.
Went to see a revival of “Incident at Vichy” last night. Superb acting (Richard Thomas was stellar as the Austrian aristocrat) and Arthur Miller’s explanation of fascism and the failure of civilization was too close to home. He’d be appalled by the current roster of aspiring repub war criminals.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Thanks. I like the one of the city surrounded by the mountains.
Marc
@BillinGlendaleCA: I commuted for my last year in the Guard, since I was trying to get settled in a place I could afford, California was a little pricey and getting Enroned during that time.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Which one? I’m guessing it’s a pic of beautiful downtown Glendale.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: The fourth one.
Emma
@Mustang Bobby: Add long corridors with slippery floors and American Airlines’ habit of having the longest distances from security checkin to gate — train ride included in the price, folks! — especially if you’re taking a short trip,and their scheduling outgoing early am flights from the same gates as the incoming overnighters from Lima and Buenos Aires…
Ah. Good memories. For certain values of “good.”
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Ah, yes; that’s Glendale. You can see the upper reaches(aka the roof) of my cave in that pic.
ETA: Actually that’s a pic of Glendale, taken from Glendale Peak.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: It’s nice. You should have us over.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: The city’s nice, the cave is, well a cave.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: A cave would probably be a step up for most of the commentariat.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: It’s a cave not a cavern.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Can you see those hills from your place?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I can see Mt. Hollywood from my front door and can see the Verdugos and San Gabriels from the street.
ETA: Back when we lived in the ‘hill country’ part of the city, I could see the San Gabriels from my bedroom and the Verdugos out my front door.
ETA2: Picture 9 has a better shot of both mountain ranges. The Verdugos on the left side of the pic and San Gabriels on the right.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Very nice. I alternate between wanting a mountain view and wanting an ocean view. Of course, I currently have neither.
Elizabelle
@BillinGlendaleCA: Love your LA area pictures. Always do.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: That kind of view(ocean and mountains) generally starts at 2-3 million around here.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I’m going to need more bootstraps.
Elizabelle
@bystander:
It’s not even amusing to see pundits and reporters acting surprised at Trump’s numbers. Their view of the Republican party is extinct, but still they carry it. They have their heads so far up David Broder’s long-buried ass, they can’t see that they’re dealing with the ugly children of Fox News nation and irresponsible, celebrity-infotainment style reporting by the majors.
This feels so Weimar.
magurakurin
@Mike in NC: What I always found odd about CDG is that the food is actually kind of crappy. It seems like everything you eat in France is delicious no matter where you seem to be. We got starved out in the gardens at Versailles and I thought for sure we would suffer at the little stalls selling food way out in the middle of those huge gardens. I mean, if it had been the States they would know there was no way you walking all the way back to town and they would sell you a 500 year old hot dog with “fun-sized” bag of mostly crushed Lays and a can of Coke for 12 dollars. But instead they were making these delicious little fresh pizzas and outstanding ham and cheese sandwiches with soft drinks and wine. And it really wasn’t that expensive. I thought for sure we could get something decent to eat for a reasonable price at the airport, but no way. It was shitty. At least it is super easy to get into Paris on the RER from CDG. The airport itself is really surprisingly crappy though when compared to the rest of the country in my opinion.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Elizabelle: I’ve got 2 hikes planned, one that should offer views north to the central valley and the Sierras(Mt. Pinos) and one to the lower foothills of the San Gabriels(Echo Mountain).
Echo Mountain and the surrounding area is interesting for historical reasons as well as a nice view of the basin.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: If you want to live like a Republican, vote Democratic.
debbie
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Switch to the other ocean and a less temperate climate (such as the Hampton, NH area), and you could find something for less.
BillinGlendaleCA
@debbie: I’m a native southern Californian, my blood’s too thin for that.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: No kidding. Even if I voted purely based on selfish financial interests alone, I would still support Democrats.
MomSense
@Satby:
Good luck on the job today!! Sorry to hear about the pup. I hope she feels better today so you can get some rest.
magurakurin
@David Koch:
I think so, too. This is how I gamed it out the other day just for laughs.
A new day brings us yet another outrageous statement by Trump and yet another round of pundits, pols and talking heads announcing that he has finally gone too far. The GOP frets about how to pull itself back from the brink and the now familiar chatter of how and when Trump will be stopped begins anew. Now, don’t get me wrong, this guy is completely odious to me and I am scared witless of the chance that he will be on the ballot next November, but I see little hope that he can be “stopped.” Not unless the GOP decides to do away with voting altogether in their primary. (although I imagine their aversion to voting isn’t actually limited to just Democrats, so let’s not count that out just yet) But please keep in mind none of what I say here should be seen as any sort of support for this ass clown at all. He is the scumbag’s scumbag, the worst of the worst. Make no mistake of that.
However, when you dig down a bit into the nuts and bolts of the Republican primary system for 2016, it seems hard to see how anything can be done to keep Trump from heading into the convention without at least a plurality of delegates if not an outright majority: that being 1236 of the 2,470 total delegates. The Republican system is a bit different from the Democrat’s system in that not all the primaries are proportional. In fact, they changed the rules after 2012 in an attempt to prevent a long, drawn out battle and many of the contests after March 14 are now winner take all. And many of the proportional contests have a 20% threshold. So, the changes designed to produce a winner quicker from a spread out field are probably going to be quite advantageous to Donald Trump.
There are actually only 4 primaries that are completely proportional without any threshold required to acquire delegates: IA, NV, VA and HI. All of these will come before March 14 (when the Gates of Hell will probably really open up.) There are a total of 122 delegates up for grabs here. Obviously there is no way to know who will be left come Iowa but for this discussion lets just assume the gang that is in there now hangs until March 14 and Trump takes the rough 25 to 30% he has in the polls now giving him a fourth of the delegates in these states.
total: 30
The next class of primaries are those which are proportional but have a 20% threshold to get delegates. In other words, Christie, Paul, Jeb? Carly, and in some places Carson, Rubio and Cruz aren’t gonna get anything. And all they will do is spread the vote and make it harder for the one who does have a shot at 20 to make it all. These states are AL, GA, TN, TX, VT, LA, ID, and Puerto Rico (yeah, I know, not a state). They have a total of 441 delegates. Back of the envelope estimates are tougher but let’s have a look at the polling as of right now. Georgia on has Trump and Carson qualifying with Trump ahead so give Trump 48 or Georgia’s 76 delegates. In Texas only Trump qualifies, but lets give Cruz a chance and split the delegates between them: 76 for Trump. The other states don’t have good polling data, but there is a damn good chance most of them won’t hit the 20% needed. Let’s assume one does in each and give the lions share of the remaining delegates to Trump, 2\3 of 213 or another 140.
Total: 264
Six states have a 15% threshold for qualifying, so Trump will get less here, but again there is a chance that he takes everything in some of these states same as the 20% states. These states are AR, OK, MI, MS, DC, and AK (Alaska has a 13% threshold) for a total of 213 delegates. More of the peewees will get to dip into the delegate bowl here, but not everyone for sure. Let’s give Trump 40% of the total thinking that he might actual shut some of that out even at the 15% level.
Total: 85
Six states have thresholds at 10% or less: MA, NH, MN,KS,KY and ME with a total of 196 delegates. Let’s assume Trump walks away with his national average now of around 30% and the wider field gobbles up the rest. Maybe even Christie gets a little piece of the pie in say NH or Maine.
Total: 59
South Carolina is an early primary state, but it is winner take all. Trump all the way after today’s rousing cheers of the hateful.
Total: 50
This is pure back of the envelope guess work but I think it is very reasonable to see Trump emerging on the Ides of March with 450 to 500 delegates and with the rest of the field sharing various amounts between them but none really close to Trumps total. At this point, if the GOP really wants to stop Trump they will have to convince some of them to drop because after the 14th, the primaries change and many become straight up winner take all. But that won’t happen because this gaggle of narcissistic gasbags don’t have it in themselves to step down and take one for the team. I imagine they will keep slugging as long as the money holds out, splitting the field and making it easier for Trump to win the plurality and walk away with all the delegates in many of the following states. Plus, Trump will probably gather even more strength as the press begins to go on about his rather substantial delegate lead. He will start to look like a “winner.”
There will then be 27 more primaries up until June 7 when the last primaries conclude. Of these 14 will be winner take all for a total of 762 delegates: FL,IL, OH, AZ, DE, MD, PA, IN, CA, MT, NJ, SD, North Marinara Islands, and US Virgin Islands. I’m sorry to say, but I can easily see Trump winning all of these outright. The GOP’s nightmare will fully realized. With the 450+ from the pre March 14 elections these alone will put him over the top. But he will surely win more delegates in the remaining primaries which vary from winner take all with a 50% win, to proportional with various thresholds (most 20%).
Of course, a lot can happen between now and when California votes on June 7, but, honestly, I don’t see how Trump doesn’t win the nomination. Not unless the GOP establishment can choose one among the remaining clowns and make it into a two man race. And I don’t see how that happens.
NonyNony
@David Koch:
I make no hard and fast predictions about the final nominee until after SC’s primary.
But I’ve been thinking about the early primaries. I’m thinking Trump loses Iowa. Iowa is about ground game far more than it is about anything else. Trump and Cruz are polling close in Iowa but word is that Cruz has an excellent ground infrastructure in place while Trump has got almost nothing – not as little as Carson had but not much. Trump may benefit from energizing new voters, and he may benefit from the fact that Frank Lutz pointed out (i.e. that for Trump’s supporters the more you argue with them about him the stronger his appeal becomes) but to have that benefit his supporters have to go to the caucuses and spend the day there. Getting them to show up is crucial, and he won’t get enough of them there just using TV ads.
Losing Iowa puts a crack into Trump’s entire campaign strategy. His entire schtick is that he’s a YOOOGE winner and everyone else is a loser. If he loses to Ted Cruz, well then Ted’s the winner and he’s the loser. If he follows that up with a loss in SC to Cruz (again because of lack of GOTV ground game) then he’s eventually toast too.
So I’m not saying that Trump can’t win it. But I am saying is that there’s a lot more to winning a primary than just polling numbers. If Trump is going to win it we won’t know until after SC. (If Trump wins 2 of the 3 early primaries, I think he takes it. If Trump loses all 3 then he’s toast. If he wins one of them, it’ll be a long and ugly primary season. My hope is that he wins NH or SC and loses the other two – because that would make for the ugliest fight between him and Cruz I can think of).
Randy P
Aargh. Just composed a long novel about our experiences at Heathrow (summary, see #34) and WP ate it.
Bottom line: I don’t believe in “good European airports to change planes” anymore. I am never booking less than a 3 hour connection.
The Golux
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Still holding out here for Trump/Nuge. Yooooge!!
Jeffro
@BillinGlendaleCA: Not surprised he was trying to fluff the Whale. Jeez was that guy (Christie) annoying last night…apparently “BarackObamaHillaryClintonbetrayedAmerica…asaformerfederalprosecutor,I” is the new “noun, verb, 9-11”. He really is the new Guiliani.
Seriously, that bs about how Obama & Clinton are somehow responsible for L.A. shutting down its schools yesterday was just…bs.
WereBear
@Satby: I just had a discussion on my blog about grain free diets helping epileptic dogs.
Dear Pammy, It was the dry food!
Just a heads up.
Gimlet
From TPM
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) took an unconventional approach in Tuesday’s GOP debate to winning America’s youth vote, telling them they could forget legalized marijuana and a subsidized college education under a Huckabee administration and gear up for military service instead.
“All over America I hear young people say, ‘Would you tell me what you’re gonna do? Would you get me free college? Would you make sure that I can have medical marijuana?'” Huckabee said. “You know what I think we oughta tell young people, ‘We aren’t gonna give you anything! We’re gonna give you the opportunity to get off your butt and go serve your country and secure your freedom because if you don’t, nobody else is.'”
Elizabelle
@NonyNony: I wouldn’t care much about Iowa. It’s home to evangelical harpies. If Trump loses it, so what? Not his crowd.
Should Cruz win, it might be more wrapping himself in the flag of Christian cruelty than proof of a good ground game.
Iowa’s first in nation status needs to go away. It’s insane, and keeps archconservatives in the news way more than they would or should be.
Gimlet
@Elizabelle:
Iowa’s first in nation status needs to go away. It’s insane, and keeps archconservatives in the news way more than they would or should be.
Candidates could ignore it and start with NH.
BillinGlendaleCA
@NonyNony: I think Trump as already written off Iowa, but he’ll win NH and SC.
rikyrah
pitiful that it took this long.
…………..
Congress Finally Comes Through For Ailing Sept. 11 Heroes
Lawmakers have agreed to earmark $8 billion in this year’s measure to keep the government open.
Michael McAuliffSenior Congressional Reporter, The Huffington Post
Over 14 years after terrorists hijacked planes to strike the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, lawmakers on Capitol Hill cut a deal Tuesday to provide effectively permanent health care for the thousands of Americans who are now sick and dying because they came forward to help that day.
After remarkably difficult negotiations that prompted critics to create a #WorstResponders hashtag for Congress, legislators finally agreed to an $8.1 billion reauthorization of the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act, and attached it to the massive omnibus spending bill that will have to pass in order to fund the government.
The spending bill was expected to be posted online imminently Tuesday night, said a senior Republican aide who confirmed the 9/11 bill is included.
“This agreement is incredible news for our 9/11 heroes and their families, and it is a testament to the extraordinary power that Americans can have when they raise their voice and demand action,“ said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).
About $3.5 billion will be designated for the World Trade Center Health Program, guaranteeing that more than 72,000 known responders and survivors will always have access to treatment, including more than 33,000 who already have 9/11-linked illnesses. The program will last 75 years, until 2090.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/congress-sept-11-responders_566effdbe4b0e292150e9994?utm_hp_ref=politics&ir=Politics§ion=politics
rikyrah
remember, it was the Republican-installed ‘ Emergency Manager’ of Flint that did this.
…………….
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 12/15/15
Lead-poisoned children prompt emergency declaration from mayor
Mayor Karen Weaver of Flint, Michigan talks with Rachel Maddow about declaring a state of emergency after a change in water supply ended up delivering lead-tainted drinking water, and how she hopes to help her constituents recover – particularly the small children permanently damaged by lead poisoning.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/lead-poisoned-children-trigger-emergency-586757699558
rikyrah
water is wet news
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 12/15/15
Anti-Muslim attacks more than double typical US rate
Rachel Maddow reviews some recent anti-Muslim attacks, threats, and vandalism around the United States. Brian Levin, from the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism, joins to discuss whether there really is an uptick in anti-Muslim attacks and how that is assessed.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/anti-muslim-attacks-in-us-more-than-double-586666563809
Thor Heyerdahl
For Republicans, Iowa has a pretty shitty track record of picking their final winners (plus as shown with Santorum’s delayed win last time, they engage in hinky shit to help the party).
PurpleGirl
@BillinGlendaleCA: My answer to that is “would you be able to find work in NH”? When I was thinking of moving to FL, I found that most of the administrative assistant-type jobs down there paid at least 2/3 of what I was making in NYC and the lack of an income tax in no way made up for that. My friend could move to FL because IBM had a policy of maintaining the earlier, higher salary. At his level, no income tax meant real money; not so for me. I stayed in NYC.
scav
@Gimlet: That’s just him contorting to pose attractively to the grumpy granddads crowd, yelling at empty chairs to pull up their pants and get off the lawns in a bonding ritual. Think of him as a bowerbird building a nest, looking for an sparkly blue thing to put in with the random twigs.
Yutsano
@BillinGlendaleCA:
So. Fucking. Seconded. Whoever came up with the 5 semi-circle design should be shot into the sun. And let’s not mention the fact that the car rental not only gives you zero option to get back to the airport the return is so far away from the airport itself that the shuttles always run late and you have to add that time in to your return arrival time. Plus the endless loops that may or may not take you to the exit or back to where you started or to another terminal entirely that are marked like shit. Oh and the food options suck.
D58826
@Gimlet: Spoken like a man who charged the beaches at Omaha and held the line at the Chosen reservoir. Oh wait he was another one of those chicken hawks.
rikyrah
I was feeling some kind of way this morning, and this post, as usual, got me to LOL. I’ve read it numerous times, and it STILL cracks me up.
………………….
Whose Wise Baby is This? (And Foolery From My Readers)
Awesomely Luvvie — October 16, 2013
I think babies are cute by default because they’re so little and small things lean towards cute. And some babies are born cute AND looking like they’ve been here before. You’ve seen those mini humans. They just look like they hold a wisdom of the years and these are the kids you gotta give strong names to. Names like Rufus, Jebediah, Orelius or Bertha. You can’t name babies who’ve been here before stuff like Jessica, Zach or Timmy. Nope. They need to be called Wilbur or Clementine from jump!
I came across a picture of this baby a while ago and I immediately wanted to get off his lawn, because I was sure he was gonna chase me off it.
http://www.awesomelyluvvie.com/2013/10/wise-baby.html
Paul in KY
@Mustang Bobby: Pretty cool, Bobby! Hope everything goes well.
rikyrah
hmmph…he wasn’t even born in this country….but, far be it from me to point this out…
……………
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Would a Ted Cruz Candidacy Be Good for the Country?
In case you’ve forgotten, there was an insurgent vs establishment battle for the Republican presidential nomination back in 2012 too. One big difference was that Mitt Romney was clearly the establishment candidate back then. So conservative writer David Frum mapped out the four possibilities of a Romney vs Tea Party nomination and general election result.
Possibility 1: Romney is nominated, Romney is elected.
Possibility 2: Romney is nominated, Romney loses.
Possibility 3: A tea party Republican is nominated and loses.
Possibility 4: A tea party Republican is nominated and wins.
Being a good establishment conservative, Frum’s preference was #1. But he described #4 as resulting in a “political and economic crisis.” What is most interesting however, is how he described #3:
Yet within the disaster might lurk a silver lining. At least the GOP will get the ideological adventure out of its system. For three years, Republican activists have lived in a fantasy world in which fringe characters like Sarah Palin and Herman Cain somehow “speak for the common sense of the common people.” It seems incredible that anybody could believe such a thing. It seems crazy that anyone would actually need a presidential election to disabuse them of such notions. But as Benjamin Franklin said: “Experience is a hard teacher, but fools will have no other.”
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2015/12/would-ted-cruz-candidacy-be-good-for.html
Paul in KY
@David Koch: Don’t go jinxing her, Dave!
Bobby Thomson
@magurakurin: pretty much. Except that Cruz will be competitive in the south, especially if Rush goes full bore in his favor.
Some argue “Trump is leading only because he’s been in the news. Once his press coverage goes away, so does his lead.” Please. When has Trump lacked the ability to conjure a spotlight? All he has to do is tweet something deliberately offensive and the dogs come running.
As flawed as he is, and even assuming he has a low ceiling (which is questionable), there is nobody else who can muster enough unified support to best him, other than Cruz. In all those “party decides” cases, there was an obvious establishment choice. Not so this year.
Republicans decide based on who they can see debating the Democrat without embarrassing himself. When Republicans fail to defend themselves and their wives, they pretty much fail that minimum standard.
magurakurin
@Bobby Thomson: The thought of Cruz being the one to take down Trump is as disturbing as the idea of Trump winning. Bad news either way. I think Clinton can take either one in the general, but I wont sleep easily until she gets the job done. But that looks like where we are.
catclub
@Schlemazel: I went and looked. they were really good.
Watterson was a genius.
MattF
Via Felix Salmon, the only debate summary you need.
shell
I tried to watch at least part of the debate..I really did. But when I tuned in, there was the puffy face of our glorious governor, talking all butch. That was enough. They say Ted Cruz has the most punchable face in politics; Christie has to be a close second.
rikyrah
The Plight of the Black Academic
Being a black professor at a predominantly white university can be just as uncomfortable as—if not more so than—being a black student at one.
ADIA HARVEY WINGFIELD DEC 15, 2015
In his new book, The Scholar Denied, the sociologist Aldon Morris writes that contrary to the discipline’s preferred origin story, the field of sociology was actually founded by W.E.B. DuBois, the first black person to receive a Ph.D. in the United States. DuBois earned his degree from Harvard, but due to rampant racial segregation at the time, he was shut out of many employment opportunities. He ended up working at Atlanta University (now Clark Atlanta University), a historically black college with few resources, but still managed to do pioneering work in the field of sociology.
Morris describes in clear detail the ways that DuBois’s emphasis on race as a socially constructed—rather than biological—phenomenon threatened white elites of his day, who much preferred Booker T. Washington’s message that blacks should accept and embrace their subordinate status. Furthermore, many white sociologists co-opted DuBois’s innovative research designs, empirical methods, and scientific approach, while failing to credit him as their originator. Morris argues that consequently, DuBois’s centrality to the discipline of sociology and his role as one of the preeminent analysts of race relations have been obscured.
DuBois lived and wrote his most famous books during the early part of the 20th century, but how different are circumstances for black academics today?
The recent student demonstrations at University of Missouri, Yale, Amherst, Emory, and other universities have drawn much-needed attention to the challenges that minority students, particularly black ones, face at predominantly white colleges and universities. There’s a great deal of research—including the work of the sociologists Joe Feagin and Wendy Leo Moore—showing that the conditions black students are protesting are serious, widespread, and often ignored. In one account, Feagin shares a story of a black student who waits after class to ask a white professor a question about that day’s lecture, only to be told “I thought you were waiting to rob me or something.” Another student describes “one of those sad and angry nights” when, walking to the dorm, white students drove by yelling racial slurs and throwing beer cans at him.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/12/the-plight-of-the-black-academic/420237/
rikyrah
But, they don’t have anything else, if they don’t have fear. This is what they peddle in….and, since they don’t have anything else, the MSM will go along with it, because it’s the only way that they can pimp for the GOP.
……………….
How fear won the GOP debate
Yes, terrorism is important. But suddenly it’s crowding out everything else that matters.By Michael Grunwald
12/16/15 12:41 AM EST
Otherwise, it’s accurate to say that the debate was all about terrorism—how to fight it, how to keep Americans safe from it, and how much Americans should be freaking out about it. CNN’s panelists asked no questions about jobs, wages, the impending Fed rate hike, health care, energy, infrastructure, the federal budget, the federal deficit, the Supreme Court, financial reform, abortion, race, or any other domestic issue unrelated to homeland security. “Americans are more afraid today than they’ve been at any time since 9/11,” Wolf Blitzer declared, and the main theme of the debate—from the candidates, but arguably from the network as well—was that they ought to be even more afraid.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/12/republican-debate-recap-fear-won-000010#ixzz3uUzwGkcC
Matt McIrvin
@Yutsano: I think DFW was designed to be infinitely expandable, or at least greatly expandable beyond its existing size. I’ve seen drawings with this huge row of circles. It was kind of megalomaniacal.
BWI also has the problem of having the car rental facility a long shuttle ride away from the terminal. You always have to leave extra time for it if you’re renting. But the terminal itself is relatively pleasant as large-ish airports go; there are some decent places to eat.
My worst recent airport experience was at Denver International, though. A full hour to get through ticketing/baggage check and then another full hour to get through security, and after we missed our flight, it turned out half the people in the airport had missed their flight for the same reason and it was an all-day ordeal getting some kind of seat out of there.
Matt McIrvin
@Gimlet: Yeah!! Only Mike Huckabee guarantees to get your children’s heads blown off! Builds character, it does!
I hate these people so much.
scav
Generally dazed by the time I was coping with major European hubs, but I distinctly remember Heathrow 5 was memorable for the general utter lack of seating and I rather liked Schiphol which was terrifyingly enormous, especially as our trek was from the glitzy end all the way down the tunnels to the charmingly Greyhound end where flights were announced in about 13 languages. With an outpost of the Rijksmuseum along the way, plus a big sparkly black floor somewhere after the maze of security.
Gin & Tonic
@Matt McIrvin: Oddly, Huckabee’s Wikipedia bio seems to omit any mention of his military experience.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@rikyrah:
G’s cousin has one of those babies. He’s not even a year old and they’re already dressing him in cardigans and old man hats. Damn, he’s cute, though!
His name, of course, is Miles.
Feathers
@NonyNony: Unless they’ve changed it since the last round, VA has some odd, hidden poison pills which demand a ground game. Gingrich had strong support in VA, but wasn’t on the ballot. Getting on the ballot requires (required?) a separate filing in each county (or a fairly large percentage).
I don’t have time to reresearch at the moment, but I remember being amazed at the cleverness of it. It was truly simple to do, if you had the least bit of clue and organization. You just had to be aware of the rule, and have supporters you could call upon to get a very small number of signatures and drop off them off at the town hall/courthouse(?). I mean, give me your mailing list and I could set it up from my desk at home in Boston. Actually, thinking about it, it would be the perfect sort of job to hand off to college activists. The trick was, you had to show you had some support from all over the commonwealth.
It could also be that the expectation was that candidates would grease the palms of the local Republicans to get it done. That is probably actually the case.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@rikyrah:
This is the one thing that worries me: Republicans ALWAYS win if they can stir up fear. They used fear of Medicare being taken away in 2010 and they used fear of Ebola in 2014.
It’s quite possible that a Democrat will win the presidency in 2016 but still be stuck with an overwhelmingly Republican Congress, and that would suck.
scav
There is also room for a wee bit of glee over tRumps most recent loss over the wind farm he objects to in Scotland (funny as he’s such a plentiful originator of the movement of air – hot even – himself. We’ll just go direct to the part where he’s showing off his honed people skills and talents at international relations plus getting his way, about everything.
Matt McIrvin
@Mnemosyne (tablet): Both of which were midterm elections, with the midterm electorate, disproportionately laden with old white people who have Fox News on all day.
Elizabelle
@Gimlet: re skipping Iowa and straight to NH:
If memory serves, Hillary Clinton might have given some thought to that in 2008; word leaked and a campaign aide rushed out to say of course HRC was committed to campaigning in Iowa.
Caucuses are unrepresentative, and Iowa is hardly a bellwether.
Paul in KY
@rikyrah: That’s a serious baby!