@katherinemiller @dandrezner "I MEAN HE LITERALLY COULD JUST JUMP IN NEXT OCTOBER IF HE'S IN THE MOOD"
— Christopher Hayes (@chrislhayes) October 5, 2015
Because I am also Irish-American, some part of me suspects that some part of Joe Biden is getting just a little bit of a kick out of tweaking the horse-race touts. As professional cynic Charles P. Pierce phrases it:
I am as big a fan of Joe Biden as the next person, as long as the next people do not work for Tiger Beat On The Potomac, which apparently has decided as an institution to believe anything mumbled into the autumn breezes on the subject of a Biden presidential campaign. The other day, we had Mike (Payola) Allen, wandering amid the shades of anonymous sources, like Odysseus in the underworld, and coming out the other side with…well, what exactly?…
The whole Biden shadow play is getting very, very old. The inclusion of him in current polling models is one very small step short of ratfcking Hillary Clinton’s numbers, and it does a real disservice to the other candidates as well. (Why not put Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg in the Republican field?) What we seem to have is a bunch of generally nervous Democrats, and some Biden loyalists who like to talk to reporters, and who still dream of that West Wing office that was denied them the other two times Joe Biden ran for president and got crushed. Oh, and there are some political reporters who find this whole thing a lot easier than working for a living.
From source to @mikeallen on Biden: "If you're going to run, you run. Every time he pushes back a decision, that's the ultimate tell."
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 5, 2015
MSNBC, on October 1st: “The deadlines Joe Biden cannot miss” —
… The final countdown for a Biden decision began [October 1], the first day of a new fundraising quarter. But Biden will face a number of softer deadlines before running up against the harder cutoff dates in November.
First up is the first Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas on October 13. It’s a high-profile event and one of only four debates before the Iowa Caucuses, but CNN – which is hosting the debate – reported Thursday that Biden is likely to opt for an announcement after the debate, if he decides to run at all.
Next is the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson dinner, a marquee Democratic Party event in the state that holds the first nominating caucus featuring all declared candidates. Barack Obama had a breakout performance at the 2007 dinner, which helped propel him to an upset victory over Hilary Clinton in the state. Biden would have to officially declare his candidacy to attend, according to Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Sam Lau…
With the vice president under heavy scrutiny, missing these high-stakes events would be read as signals of Biden’s intentions – or lack thereof. But allies argue it could be smart to skip them to preserve his sky-high approval ratings by waiting on the sidelines as long as possible.
But waiting to declare in December or later would mean risking falling off the ballot in several states, essentially forfeiting them and their delegates. Four states have November deadlines, according to a tentative list of filing requirements provided to MSNBC by a Democratic source. They begin with a 5 p.m. cutoff on Friday, Nov. 6 in Alabama and continue with deadlines in Arkansas three days later, Michigan on Nov. 17, and Florida at the end of month…
@ron_fournier @JoeTrippi: I can't fathom how Biden announces within 7-10 days and doesn't partake in debate 10 days from now.
— Andrew Carden (@polibeast) October 3, 2015
1. Getting in will be bigger news than anything that happens at debate that he isn't at. 2. he isn't ready.
https://t.co/5yc5jj5MCt
— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) October 4, 2015
The Hill, October 2nd:
President Obama said Friday that Vice President Biden will “have his own decisions to make” when it comes to entering the 2016 presidential race.
“I love Joe Biden and he has his own decisions to make and I’ll leave it at that,” Obama said at a news conference on Friday….
"If I don't move, I'll be demoted to secretary of state or something." – Joe Biden.
— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) October 7, 2015
CBS News, October 3rd:
Vice President Joe Biden is nearing a decision on whether to run for president, and it could come as early as within the next seven to 10 days, according to three people familiar with his deliberations.
Two of those people said he is leaning toward entering the race…
Draft Biden, a ground campaign to bring Biden on board the 2016 Democratic field, has even “formed the logistical support to immediately back a campaign once a decision is made,” according to a statement released by the organization on Saturday.
The group won’t be deterred if Biden skips the party’s Las Vegas debate, saying that though it is “an important juncture for a campaign, it by no means represents a hard deadline or obstacle to entry if not attended.” It may even present “some benefit” for the potential campaign to wait on the sidelines.
“Regardless of when over the next few weeks the vice president makes his decision,” the group said, “we will be ready.”
A spokesperson for the vice president had no comment…
This Draft Biden ad is making me feel… Yeesh. His family tragedies are awful! But are they a reason he would be a good president?
— Jill Filipovic (@JillFilipovic) October 8, 2015
redshirt
AL, you are the glue that keeps this blog running.
May Gaia bless you.
Steeplejack
We are not bemused.
Keith G
It seems likely to me that the largest decision point for Biden will be how the Hillary Clinton testimony before Congress plays out and is absorbed by the public. That will all be over by the end of this month.
Amir Khalid
@Keith G:
Unless Hillary really messes up in her testimony, I don’t see an opening for Joe to run for President.
cmorenc
I’m a big fan of Joe Biden, but it’s time for him to shit or get off the pot about this Presidential run thing.
EconWatcher
I am really unethused about Hillary, and I’d really like some better choices. But I see nothing Biden could bring to the table that’s better than Hillary.
He seems like a very charming guy, and I’d love to have him at a family picnic.
But my problem with Hillary is reliability when the going gets tough, and I don’t see anything better in Biden.
He voted against ousting Saddam from Kuwait, and then for invading all of Iraq for no apparent reason. So I think his FP judgment is even more open to question than Hillary’s.
What is the case for Biden? The only one I can see is as an insurance policy in case some scandal or other event knocks Hillary out; Bernie or O’Malley would likely be McGovern redux. (Is Webb even still running?)
Just curious, is there any real argument for Biden instead of Hillary?
piratedan
don’t think he’s running. He’s earned some time off to enjoy the rest of his life if that’s what he wants…. All the rest is the usual misogynistic ramblings of beltway boys club and mean gurrls looking to tear down Hillary as if she’s got something intrinsically wrong with her because she’s a woman, who put up with a skirt chasing husband because she either is a cold calculating bitch, which they would hate or she really loves and is loyal to the ex-horndog in chief, which they would hate and she’s actually a smart capable woman, which they hate.
Is she perfect, well who the fuck is… is she better than the GOP, exponentially.
Warren Terra
@EconWatcher: Pretty much all of this. Sec. Clinton doesn’t enthuse me (which is not to say that I blame her for the mountains of nonsense the Rs have heaped upon her), but Biden doesn’t either – plus, if he ever actually intended to run he shoulda wrapped up the Hamlet act months ago. Sadly, there’s no-one else. I’d probably agree with Bernie on basically everything, but a 75 year old Jewish Socialist from Vermont isn’t winning the election. If the former Maryland governor could grow a personality and a platform – he has a name, but I’m damned if I can remember it – I could see him doing something. Webb burned his 2006 goodwill a long time ago, and then there’s the former Republican senator from Connecticut Or Rhode Island or Some Such Place.
I mean, I’d love if it someone like Sherrod Brown were running – mid-American, a bit younger than Sanders or Clinton, fierce on labor issues, for progressive taxation, got Iraq right. But there is no such paragon on the horizon. Remember four years ago when Charlie Pierce’s refrain to the Republicans was that Romney was all they got? That’s us this time, with Clinton, for better or worse. And she’s not “worse”! I which I was sure she was “better”, though …
hilts
It’s time for Biden to either put up or STFU already. His Hamlet routine has become as repulsive as the sound of fingernails being dragged across a blackboard.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
I honestly don’t think Joe is going to run. He might have if Beau hadn’t died, but I really don’t think his heart is in it. He’s flattered by the attention, but I don’t think he wants to do it.
And I don’t really have a problem with his public dithering, or the MSM’s obsession. It seems to be keeping the MSM from trying to dig up new “scandals” about Hillary, so I say, let ’em obsess.
Thoughtful Today
…
Bernie does as well or better than Hillary in a general election match up against Republicans in poll after poll.
He’s excited young Americans far more than anyone in the Democratic Party in years.
Most of their support is based on his array of policies. For others it’s arguably his prophetic vision. And for others it’s the combination of consistently good judgement even in the face of overwhelming odds.
Ironically, Bernie will have an easier time winning the general election against Republicans than he will against establishment Dems.
Ziggurat
@Mnemosyne (tablet): The Village will always find time for Clintonbaiting.
Morzer
I think most of this Biden malarkey is about Uncle Joe seeing whether Clinton is willing to offer him something halfway decent in return for an endorsement and staying out of the race. The rest of it is Beltway scribes rushing to write the most breathless take on rumors about rumors.
Amir Khalid
@Morzer:
What could President Hillary have to offer Joe Biden, though? He’s a bit too old for a Supreme Court seat, and I doubt he’d want a Cabinet appointment. An ambassadorial sinecure in a very pleasant capital city wouldn’t really work for someone who wants to devote time to his family, as I understand Joe does.
Morzer
@Amir Khalid:
I can’t see anything else making sense. If Biden really wanted to be part of the race, he would surely have made his decision before now. The only reason I can see for leaving the possibility open is to have someone buy him off. Maybe he wants something for his son Hunter, maybe he’s got some pet project that he wants help with, maybe he secretly hungers to be the ambassador to Finland.
Keith G
@Amir Khalid: That is the whole point. I think Joe Biden is functioning as the political equivalent of a safe school.
Morzer
@Thoughtful Today:
The youngs were pretty frickin’ excited by a strapping young Kenyan Muslim Socialist not so long ago.
Keith G
@Morzer: I know, right?
Thoughtful Today might find it better if she/he were more…..thoughtful.
Chyron HR
@Morzer:
Yeah, but Bernie excites young Americans who really want to see someone put those uppity blacks in their place.
Keith G
@Chyron HR: I think that you are making a very unfair statement.
Another Holocene Human
@Keith G: It’s not so unfair when you consider the behavior of dozens of soi-disant bern-heads on social media.
magurakurin
@Thoughtful Today:
Policies like wanting to set up a system of 50 separate state run single payer health care systems? Yeah, that sounds both practical and doable…not. When asked about why his state, Vermont, abandoned trying to set up a single payer system he responded to the questioner that she ask the governor of Vermont. Not his responsibility I guess. His “array of policies” are pie in the sky ideas. Just because you like the flavor of the pies doesn’t make them anymore like to happen. The transition to single payer in the United States will have to be incremental and will take a long time. The current employer based system will be difficult to unwind. Simple claiming that you are going to put the insurance companies “out of business,” is a long long way from getting that done. Sorry, not feeling the Bern. Not one little bit. Quite the opposite actually, I slowly starting to hate the guy.
Hurling Dervish
Thoughtful Today should never meet Right to Rise in person. They’d cancel each other out.
David Koch
That’s a pretty poor argument.
Does she feel that way when Hills does her “vote for me I’m a grandmother” ads? Is that a reason she would be a good president?
Frankensteinbeck
No, we don’t. What we have are a lot of reporters who desperately, desperately want Democrats to be in Disarray. This is Beltway Wisdom at its finest. I’ve heard people who don’t like her, but nobody who was nervous and wanted a more electable candidate.
Gavin
After all, Democrats in Disarray need Republican Daddy Figures to Come to the Rescue is the beltway wisdom.. same as it ever was. Certified Fresh as of 1983!
AxelFoley
@Thoughtful Today:
Is that a fact? You must be forgetting about the guy currently in the White House.
Frankensteinbeck
I should note: I think Hillary will be way more popular in the general. The media has done its damnedest to ratfuck her, and I get the impression not many people have heard her actual positions and what she’s said. Everything I’ve heard out of her in this election has delighted me. I think she learned a lot working for Obama.
Even her supposed hawkishness seems to be based on an article where she thought we should have armed Syrian rebels more (not a very hawkish position, just not dovish) and multiple paragraphs of ‘And I’m sure she’s going to repudiate Obama’s whole peacenik philosophy any day now!’
Cervantes
Where pollsters include Biden and exclude him so you can see both sets of numbers, you find that a little more than half his support (maybe 55% on average) goes to Clinton, and most of the rest of it goes to Sanders.
Cervantes
@Keith G:
Unfair statements are a dime a dozen.
I can even get them for you wholesale.
mclaren
@EconWatcher:
How can you say that?
Don’t you want more endless unwinnable neocon-induced foreign wars? Joe Biden loves endless unwinnable foreign wars:
Joe Biden on the Don Imus show, 8/17/2006:
“We’ve got one last shot here to separate these parties [in the Iraq civil war], and you have to do it politically.”
Joe Biden, Fox News, 11/21/2005: (Should we leave Iraq right now?)
“Not immediately, no. I can understand Jack’s frustration. This is a guy who has concluded that so far we’ve handled this effort incompetently, but it seems to me that we have one last shot at
getting this right.”
Joe Biden, Charlie Rose show, 21 June 2005:
“I personally think we should not set an exit date. I personally think we should take one last shot at trying to do this the right way. I think it still can be done, although more difficult.”
Joe Biden, Face the Nation, 6/19/2004:
“We need time. There’s one last shot at getting this right in Iraq.”
Joe Biden, Hardball, 24 May 2004:
“We’ve made significant mistakes. Our one last shot to get this right, unite the world, convince the Iraqi people that this is not just a U.S. occupation, is June 30.”
Joe Biden, 11/7/2003:
“I am convinced we have one last shot at bringing the world into Iraq,” said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the senior Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. “We must do everything in our power to seize it.”
We need Joe Biden to run for president because our drug laws aren’t harsh enough and not enough Americans are spending time in prison for doing drugs:
Joe Biden tells ABC News in 1990: “… I think legalization [of marijuana] is a mistake. I still believe it’s a gateway drug. I’ve spent a lot of my life as chairman of the Judiciary Committee dealing with this. I think it would be a mistake to legalize.”
In 1989 Joe Biden criticized George H. W. Bush for not waging a savage enough War on Drugs: “In 1988, the major drug bill he had spent years crafting became law. Included was the creation of a national drug czar, a key Biden objective and a job that went to Republican William Bennett. Biden vowed to be Capital Hill’s point man in pressing the new Bush administration on antidrug spending and helping Bennett navigate his way through a thorny bureaucratic thicket of multiple congressional jurisdictions. When Pres. Bush announced his 1989 antidrug plan, Biden showed no hesitation in criticizing him for not finding initiatives already on the books. He called for higher taxes on cigarettes and tobacco (neither of which he ever used) to pay for them. Biden unleashed his old fire: “Mr. President, you say you want a war on drugs, but if that’s what you want we need another D-Day. Instead you’re giving us another Vietnam–a limited war fought on the cheap, financed on the sly, with no clear objectives, and ultimately destined for stalemate and human tragedy.”
That’s what America needs – “another D-Day” in the War on Drugs! Joe Biden for President!
We need Joe Biden as president because America needs more asset forfeiture laws — Joe Biden wrote the first asset forfeiture laws, after all. Police right now can “arrest” your money and keep it without charging you with a crime, and clearly we need much more of that. Moreover, Joe Biden wrote the precursor to the USA Patriot Act, and if there’s anything that has benefited the average America, it’s laws that let the government kidnap U.S. citizens and throw them into prison forever without a trial:
Joe Biden for president! Because we need a lot more government surveillance of our citizens and much more of the evidence used in trials needs to be kept secret.
And just look at Joe Biden’s endorsements. With supportive quotes like this, how can you not vote for Joe President for president?
Source: “Joe Biden’s One-Man Crime Band,” TalkLeft, 4 August 2015.
But the real reason to vote for Joe Biden is that America needs much more crony capitalism and nepotism and corruption:
Source: “Hunter Biden’s new job at a Ukrainian gas company is a problem for U.S. soft power,” The Washington Post, 14 May 2014.
LABiker
Clinton/Biden 2016!
mclaren
@Amir Khalid:
Joe Biden could become the Grand Inquisitor. After all, Joe Biden wrote the precursor to the USA Patriot Act (the 1995 Omnibus Anti-Terrorism Act), a bill that allows secret trials with secret evidence the accused isn’t allowed to see, provisions to hurl U.S. citizens into dungeons forever without access to a lawyer or even a trial or criminal charges, panopticon surveillance of all U.S. citizens by the government, and charging U.S. citizens with “terrorism” based on their political beliefs.
This is a job Joe Biden was born for. He could put on a black hood and use red-hot irons on helpless victims until they pled guilty to imaginary crimes involving their poitical beliefs. That’s been the whole thrust of “Uncle Joe” Biden’s legislative career, and I think he’d be great at it.
mclaren
@LABiker:
No, Biden/Torquemada 2016! You’ll vote for him because if you don’t, we’ll hold a secret trial with secret evidence in a secret court, and no one will ever see you again.
Bobby Thomson
I think the next six months will really be critical to Biden’s decision.
Hurling Dervish
@Bobby Thomson: It’s his one last shot to get it right.
Hoodie
I don’t see any particular downside to what Biden is doing. He can serve as a backstop if Clinton somehow runs into trouble in the email stuff, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely thanks to the Klutzes in the House GOP leadership. Biden’s coy act is more likely help Clinton than hurt her, assuming he really has no intention to run. The more the pundits cite the 3-way numbers, the more it will look like Clinton is making a comeback when he finally bows out and the vast majority of his supporters flow to her and she wipes Sanders out in Iowa and NH. I imagine Joe will string this out until the email stuff evaporates.
Ziggurat
@Cervantes:
“When Biden – who is still mulling a campaign – is removed from the field, Clinton’s lead over Sanders grows to 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, which suggests that Biden’s entry would hurt Clinton more than Sanders.”
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-2016-gop-race-n433991
“Among Biden voters, 44% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 21% who say Sanders would be. If
Biden doesn’t get in and you reallocate his backers to their second choice, Clinton leads
Sanders 51 to 28.”
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NationalDems_100615.pdf
First choice: Hillary Clinton 44, Bernie Sanders 30, Joe Biden 18. Without Biden: Clinton 56, Sanders 32.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/09/23/fox-news-poll-2016-election-pope-francis-popularity/
Thoughtful Today
hmmm
So much … hate … from Hillary supporters.
Does that reflect on her the same way the hundreds of thousands of new young voters excited about Bernie reflect on him?
Thoughtful Today
[…]
“The transition to single payer in the United States will have to be incremental and will take a long time.”
And it won’t start until the leaders of one of the parties starts pushing for it. Currently that’s … neither Party.
That Bernie’s pushing single payer healthcare is one of the many policy reasons why I love the guy.
Hurling Dervish
@Thoughtful Today: Betcha there are Brinks trucks of cash donations pulling up to his headquarters. Brinks trucks, I tell you.