"We're in an age where likability is key… She is not Bill Clinton. She is not Barack Obama." — April Ryan on HRC http://t.co/AjuXuTbyqC
— Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) September 22, 2015
I'm sorry, but this is absurd. What's Trump's likability? https://t.co/LttvG8movj
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) September 22, 2015
A commentor complained that I don’t post enough about Hillary Clinton, so here’s a little corrective. Former Dean campaign leader Joe Trippi is of course a partisan, but he’s not wrong. From the LA Times:
Has the political punditry class lost its collective mind?
In a year in which every other supposed front-runner and establishment candidate has collapsed to single digits or has already withdrawn from the race — yes, I am talking about you, Jeb Bush, and you, Scott Walker — Hillary Rodham Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field with more than 40% of the vote. Can Bernie Sanders, who is 15 points behind her in recent polling, represent a real threat to her nomination? No. Hell no. Not a chance. But pundits keep asking the question without pointing out the obvious answer…
If the GOP wasn’t convinced that she could block their path to the White House in November 2016, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to stop her right now. If they thought her knees would buckle and she was really going to collapse — if they thought she would be a breeze to defeat — they would hold their fire until she was the Democratic nominee.
Pundits can focus on her weaknesses, her mistakes and her negatives while overlooking her strengths — for them, there are no real consequences — but her opponents do so at their own peril…
To believe that Sanders or even Biden can defeat Clinton, you have to believe they can run as well against her (after the first two contests) as Obama did. The obstacles to pulling that off are significant…
Have all the Democratic voters in these states not heard of her emails and the server? Do they not know she is behind in Iowa and New Hampshire? How could they not? After months of drip, drip, drip, if the scandals haven’t sunk her with Democratic voters in these states, will further revelations hurt her? It’s possible, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The pundits say this is an outsider year and that voters from both parties are frustrated. Republicans may feel that Romney wasn’t pure enough on the right, and there are Democrats who feel that even Obama wasn’t pure enough on the left. And yet Clinton leads Sanders and Biden nationally in every poll. She has problems that she needs to address, of course, but look across the aisle at the GOP field and find a nominee who doesn’t…
J R in WV
Ok, Ok, I’ve ready, Someone send me a Hillary bumper sticker! It worked bot Obama back in 2008, and then in 2012, so I’m willing to take one for the party! For the Nation!!
BGinCHI
It’s obvious.
American political punditry is all about sports. If there was a team in the league that had all the best players and won every game, there would be not reason to comment, or root, or follow the competition. This is how American see and rate everything now.
HRC is the class of the field. She is the horse at even money. With nothing to be wagered on the chattering class will do nothing but cut her down until there is something to talk about.
This is why they are so shit hot about the GOP field.
It’s the Norris Division of politics.
Pogonip
The landlord’s treating the house and yard for fleas, can any of you pet owners tell me the best way to de-flea my car? No exterminator will touch it.
Germy Shoemangler
@Pogonip:
Why not? What reason do they give?
Punchy
@Pogonip: Sell it on Craigslist.
Central Planning
C-4?
Gin & Tonic
@Pogonip: Douse it in gasoline and set it on fire, then call your insurance company.
burnspbesq
Sports analogy? OK.
HRC is the Mets. Bernie is the Nats. Biden is Miam. All of the Republicans are Philly, or at best Atlanta.
schrodinger's cat
@Pogonip: Wash it with bleach?
FlipYrWhig
April Ryan, by the way, is horrible. Of the mainstream pundits that MSNBC puts on the air, she is the most predictably conventional and the least insightful by leaps and bounds. FAR worse than other people much more widely mocked in the blogosphere, like Cilizza and Milbank. She was the one who, after the last Republican debate, said something about Fiorina like “She spoke with great knowledge and familiarity with the issues even though, as you say, many of her facts may have been wrong.”
Omnes Omnibus
IIRC HRC is sitting at 70% approval ratings among Ds.
Geeno
@FlipYrWhig: How exactly does one “speak with great knowledge” when many of their facts are wrong?
Cervantes
Nice one.
JPL
@Pogonip: Remove the seats if you can, and wash the carpet with a carpet cleaner. If that doesn’t work, I don’t know.
greennotGreen
@Pogonip: Try something like this.
FlipYrWhig
Regarding Hillary Clinton and the way the media treats her, I strongly suspect that a huge proportion of the reason why media organizations keep putting Biden’s name into the polls when he’s not running and won’t is to keep her reported percentage below 50%, thus making it seem like she hasn’t caught fire, won people over even in her own party, etc.
Cervantes
@FlipYrWhig:
Much the same can be said of Ryan herself.
randy khan
@burnspbesq: I’m not so sure she can spot the fastball as well as deGrom does, but otherwise that works for me.
There’s certainly a lot of value in the media to saying HRC is in trouble, just like there’s value in pumping up every possible scandal – the latest bit about Huma Abedin’s job status is just the most current example. Also, people on the left of the party have a strong interest in pumping up Sanders, if for no other reason than to push HRC further left. But with all that, she’s still got that big overall lead, much more of a ground game and much more money. That’s a tough combination to beat.
FlipYrWhig
@Geeno: I know! It’s absurd! Ask April Ryan, who said it (or the equivalent of it).
SatanicPanic
@Geeno: by knowing lots of wrong things?
Calouste
@Pogonip: I’ve once used some kind of fumigation bomb to clean the air conditioning in an old car, that might work for fleas as well.
dedc79
@burnspbesq:
I don’t think the Mets/Nats part works. The Nats were World Series favorites at the start of the season, and the Mets were injury-depleted and expected to play around/under .500 ball.
ETA: You might be better off with a football analogy. Hillary is New England (hated/resented by many, covered extensively, wished to fail, but still consistently at the top). Bernie is either the Jets or Bills.
SatanicPanic
Has anyone bothered to ask Democrats if they want an outsider? Or are they just assuming because Republicans want one that Democrats want one too?
Actually, I’m pretty sure I know the answer.
Anne Laurie
@Pogonip: First off, what does your veterinarian suggest?
An automobile may be a good target for a flea fogger. But you’ll need to check the instructions carefully, make sure it’s not too large for the space. Not to mention doing it when you won’t need the car for at least eight hours, and then you’ll have to wipe down all the smooth surfaces before you touch them ungloved.
Burt Hutt
I just realized that Iowa Old Lady not only taught classes at my alma mater but that several of my friends took her classes. It’s a small engineering school in Flint, MI. Totally cool but totally trivial.
They all had mad crushes on her.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: And yet, I’m told by the folk on Morning Joe that she’s DOOMED!!! The dems need Handsome Joe to get into the race to save their chances in the general cause of polls taken at year before the general polling a candidate who’s not in the race. QED!!!
Cacti
@FlipYrWhig:
Pretty much.
Biden and Clinton splitting votes with each other is about the only way I could see Sanders winning the nom.
FlipYrWhig
Found the quotation I remembered on the NBC News website:
Gin & Tonic
@gelfling545: The question was about a car, not a cat.
Iowa Old Lady
@Burt Hutt: Oh. My. God.
Burt Hutt
@Iowa Old Lady: I know. How random is that?
Archon
@Cacti:
For Biden to win he would have to sweep with African-Americans in the primary. Short of a public endorsement from Obama that isn’t going to happen.
FlipYrWhig
@SatanicPanic:
“Outsider” is the way you can suspiciously easy answer (1) Why Trump? (2) Why Sanders? And you can say “The People are in the mood for an unconventional outsider, not a Bush or a Clinton!” It’s almost as popular on the left as it is on the right.
Iowa Old Lady
@Burt Hutt: I liked teaching there. The students were smart and hard working.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Archon: They were talking about an Obama endorsement of Biden on MJ this morning.
Kay
I thought Trump might do something genuinely interesting with taxes, but what a dud that is.
A “favor the rich'” tax plan. Yawn. Those are a dime a dozen on the Right. Another phony maverick.
workworkwork
@Geeno: Based on my own experience listening to CEOs, it means looking you straight in the eye and lying to you, with complete and utter confidence.
charon
@SatanicPanic:
There was a poll on this posted at The Upshot (NYT) but I couldn’t find it. As I recall though the pct favoring outsider was 58% all GOP voters, 64% conservative GOP voters, 24 % all Dems, 23% liberal Dems.
sukabi
Has the political punditry class lost its collective mind
the short and correct answer to Trippi’s question is a resounding YES!!
Iowa Old Lady
@workworkwork: So it’s like being a dean.
Tripod
@Pogonip:
Borax powder on the carpet (and cloth upholstery), work in with brush, wait six hours, vacuum.
Cold will kill them, so depending on climate (under 40F at night) you could just leave car out, window cracked, then vacuum..
SatanicPanic
@FlipYrWhig: There are some notable differences between the ‘outsider’ status of Sanders and the ‘outsider’ status of Trump, etc. and their relative standings in their respective races, however.
MomSense
@Kay:
Did I imagine that I saw a headline about Trump considering dropping out and that he characterized his performance as “childish”? It was on Google news and then it was gone.
If true, I predict his next gig is either QVC or Home Shopping Network.
Burt Hutt
@Iowa Old Lady: My recollection is that you weren’t much older than the students at the time.
And it was a fun time in our lives despite the fact that it was an engineering school (a factor that likely made your job harder).
There was a comment you made the other day about communications among engineers that drew my attention. It’s a wonderfully small world in many respects.
I love reading your comments, by the way.
Mrs. Whatsit
@Pogonip: Haven’t tried this with a car, but we had a ton of fleas in our yard and used food grade diatomaceous earth. This explains about using it in various places, and I imagine you could sprinkle it in your car, leave it overnight and then vacuum it up. Good luck! Fleas are a major PITA.
Archon
@BillinGlendaleCA:
I suspect in a vacuum Obama would prefer Biden over Clinton in the White House. In the real world though a public endorsement of Biden would obviously boost the Vice President but I don’t see any political benefits for the President.
Jeffro
@burnspbesq:
I think Scott Walker is the Nats…lots of talk early on about winning pennants, but regardless of the money spent collapsed due to inept play and is now out of it.
Archon
@Kay:
Couldn’t agree more, I think Trump could have put a lot of pressure on other candidates by having a tax plan that wasn’t another giveaway to the rich. Even a majority of Republicans think the wealthy don’t pay enough.
I suspect Trump was told that a tax plan that didn’t adhere to supply-side principals would be considered an act of total war by Republican plutocrats. That tells me Trump really does think he has a chance of winning.
johnnybuck
@BillinGlendaleCA: Ah yes the old back-up quarterback syndrome. Everybody loves the backup quarterback until he has to play.
randy khan
@Jeffro: The Nats actually led for much of the season, so the analogy to Walker breaks down pretty fast.
SatanicPanic
@charon: well there you go. Looks like it’s just conservatives looking for an outsider. Probably because their insiders are so useless.
Cervantes
@SatanicPanic:
One answer is suggested by the polls, such as they are at this stage when not too many people are paying attention. Take them cum grano salis.
Another answer is suggested by the crowds said outsider is drawing. Again, not a definitive answer, for obvious reasons.
Oh, well, never mind then!
Amir Khalid
@BillinGlendaleCA:
It seems unlikely to me that Obama will endorse anyone before the Democratic party has its nominee. He won’t want to insert himself or his office into a primary race, surely, especially one between his first Secretary of State and his VP.
johnnybuck
@Archon: If he thought it would help Biden win a general election (which would be to his benefit) this would already be happening.
balconesfault
When we talk about Hillary – can we talk about foreign policy in this adminstration?
It’s nice that we haven’t started any ground wars – but can someone tell me why Obama is continuing to stomp his feet and declare “Assad must go!”
This just seems shortsighted (chances of removing Assad and not turning much of Syria immediately over to ISIS approaches 0) and silly (positions us against Russia in a place where we really have no logical interests).
Jeffro
@Cacti:
True, and I can’t even see it getting to that point.
February, 2016:
Clinton: “So..what do you want to get out of the race, Joe? You running will just mean Bernie wins and then we’re both unemployed while Republicans burn the country to the ground. I can give you anything short of the Veep slot – have to reserve that for someone younger than me, you know that.”
Biden: “Um…how about Secretary of State for me, weekly lunches w/ you when I’m in town, $50M for a Biden Vice Presidential Library in Delaware, and a ’77 Camaro & aviator shades?”
Clinton: “Done”
Cervantes
@FlipYrWhig:
Have you seen polls asking people what they think of the policies espoused by Clinton and by Sanders? Ones that do not mention the candidates’ names?
Joel
@BGinCHI: If the political press is about sports, then your typical Politico wonk is an ESPN hack like Len Pasquirelli, and their political ideal is Roger Goodell.
groucho48
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Of course they were. Anything to muddle the Dem race and give the Reps a chance will be pondered by many pundits in many places.
Bobby Thomson
@FlipYrWhig: you are correct. Her “drop” in the polls coincides neatly with adding Biden to the mix.
Jeffro
@randy khan: They did? I think they led for half the season and then started to implode. Walker was pretty high in the polls for a month, which would constitute half of his season.
Wait…you’re not one of those bitter Nats fans, I hope? I’m not equating the two morally, ethically, or politically. Just saying their seasons and eventual implosion reminded me each of the other.
jl
So far, I like Sanders’ policy package better than HRC’s, but HRC is fine and seems to moving somewhat towards Sanders.
Only problem with the excerpt in the post is that it suggests the HRC email GOP PR BS can be described as a scandal. So far, it is not a scandal, rather, it is GOP PR BS. So far, every breathless media story suggesting new info that would make a scandal, has produced just more retailing of wholesale GOP PR BS.
I am a big fan of Handsome Old Joe Biden, but the fact that CNN changed its rules so that Biden can decide to participate on the same day as the debates shows how corrupt the corporate media is. They figure they can get more viewers and make more BS horseshit horse race headlines by letting him jump in. If Biden hasn’t made up his mind to run and participate in the debate under the stated rules, then he should not participate. He certainly should not participate as a prospective candidate, and I would be very disappointed if he does jump in at the last minute. I hope Democrats have some self control and are less childish than the GOPers. If Biden files and is a candidate by the time of the debate and meets the pre-set criteria fine, but CNN is pulling BS by changing the rules.
Amir Khalid
@Archon:
Why would Obama have a preference between Joe and Hillary?
BillinGlendaleCA
@Amir Khalid: I agree, I was trying to think of a termed out President endorsing a primary contestant in my lifetime; I got nothing.
Brachiator
Interesting. We don’t really know what her strengths are. Does anyone know about her NY senate campaigns?
Hillary has money and the Democratic establishment with her and, presumably the voters.
But she has never run a national political campaign, apart from her last primary run.
I am for Hillary, and not just HRC as the “Insert Democratic Party Name Here because all Republicans are Bad” candidate. I understand most of her appeal.
But she is still a largely theoretical candidate. She is not the former co-president or president-in-training to Bill Clinton. She still has to show, not tell, that she deserves to be the Democratic candidate. She has to beat Sanders. And then she will have to beat the GOP piece of crap.
Good luck to her.
jibeaux
I know I’m an obot, but I cannot believe we have 13+ more months of this. I am fine with voting for HRC, but not a lot of adjectives besides fine. I’m tired and bored of my other lefty friends and #feelthebern. Stop trying to make the Bern happen. He’s not gonna happen. I just hope to Goddess we can somehow,someway make headway in the House and in my state government before the apocalypse.
FlipYrWhig
@Cervantes: Polls always show that people support liberal policy until the moment they’re told it’s liberal. People suck. I don’t trust ’em. :P
goblue72
@MomSense: Trump has lasted a bit longer than I had expected (my predictions were he would be out by around Labor Day), but he’s still trending close to that – a flash in the pan, summer replacement series while the regular season series are on hiatus / in re-runs. (Do they still do re-runs now in the era of Hulu/Netflix/Amazon Prime?)
But summer if over, folks have fully shaken off the last of the dog days of August, with summer vacations having receded in the rear view mirror over the horizon. The new season premieres are starting. Oscar release season is around the bend. School has started up again.
And at some point, Trump’s reality TV show masquerading as a Presidential campaign runs out of steam, as he quickly goes down in the Neilsen ratings. Watching the crazy rich dude scream about Mexicans and illegals and walls and illegal Mexicans raping things so we gotta build a wall – starts to get kinda stale after a few episodes. This tax plan of his – MOAR TAX CUTS FOR ME! TRICKLED DOWN FOR YOU! – is like JEB!’s plan on steroids – and given that his base is composed of the downwardly mobile white ethnics previously known as Reagan Democrats – its gonna taste like pretty weak sauce to them. His base wants “free stuff” – they just want it for people who “deserve it” – (i.e. not “Mexicans” and not “those blacks”)
Trump may have survived Labor Day, but my money is he doesn’t make it through to the New Year. (Maybe he flames out before Turkey Day, but I can also see him making it long enough to have a Very Special Christmas Episode or even an All-Star Christmas Special, before calling it quits)
Not to worry, we’ve got a couple of mainstream, white bread dramedies called JEB! and Rubio airing to eventually distract the GOP masses.
Meanwhile, HBO is quietly readying its quirky mini-series called Feel the Bern! while AMC is aiming for an Emmy for its hard-hitting retro-90s drama called HRC.
Alex
In order for Biden to win, it would require a Hillary withdrawal from the race. The “smart” talk around a Biden run is that he’s not running, but he’s remaining open enough to a run to suddenly jump into the race if it needs a savior.
A Sanders win would require huge success in Iowa (a win is unlikely currently) and convincing people that his expected win in New Hampshire (around a 6-8 point lead currently) is sudden and dramatic instead of a local winning a nearby state. And then… something something to convince the more diverse electorates in South Carolina and Nevada to vote for him.
Note that the media does not treat an expected win as something noteworthy — the key behind Hillary’s New Hampshire win in 2008 is that she was 8 points or so behind in the polls going into the election.
—————-
The debate in two weeks will be big, since it will be the first chance for a larger audience to see Sanders and Clinton outside of their media narratives (large crowds and free college/socialism vs emails and inauthentic). Oh, and Martin O’Malley will be there.
FlipYrWhig
@Bobby Thomson: I think if pollsters included a “Someone else” option along with all the declared candidates–just going by gut reaction here–I’d guess that “Someone else” would still be way out in front in the Republican primaries and marginally ahead of Clinton on the Democratic side.
SatanicPanic
@Brachiator:
This is kind of an odd thing to say.
Cervantes
@FlipYrWhig:
Then why bother “to ask Democrats if they want an outsider”?
Democrats are people, too, you know.
kdaug
@Amir Khalid: You’re right, of course. And, once the primary’s decided, it will be his last campaign – I expect a fight like no other.
Still can’t wait to see what he does next.
randy khan
@Jeffro: Definitely not a bitter Nats fan – I’ve been rooting for the Mets since I was 9. I’m a happy camper.
Walker spent about a month in the lead, but that was basically March. Most of the rest of the time, he polled in the single digits. I will say, though, that his last 6 weeks bore a strong resemblance to what happened to the Nats in the same time frame, minus a stupid hotheaded reliever trying to choke the likely NL MVP.
Roger Moore
@balconesfault:
The obvious answer is because he thinks Assad must go. AFAIK, he isn’t saying that the entire Assad regime must go, so that the government would have to start over from scratch, just that Assad himself must go. Given just how awful the civil war has been, I think it will be hard to put the country back together while he’s still around.
Roger Moore
@jl:
Shouldn’t that be RNC PR BS?
randy khan
@Brachiator: In her first Senate campaign, the Republicans nominated an up and comer named Rick Lazio, and there was concern that he could cause her trouble, and the polls were pretty close for a while. He made a bad mistake in the first debate, her campaign played it for all it was worth, and she won by 12 points.
She didn’t have serious opposition in the second Senate campaign.
Archon
@balconesfault:
Assad coming out of this still in charge would be a huge blow to American (and specifically the Presidents) prestige and probably wouldn’t be acceptable to anyone in the region outside of Iran.
randy khan
@efgoldman: Oh, you should hear some of them. I live in Washington, so I’m trying to be nice, but the recriminations are pretty impressive. Remember, this is a town with a history of disappointment in sports (last championship in a major sport: 1992), so when things go bad, everybody knows exactly what to do.
FlipYrWhig
@Cervantes: The last time we were talking about this general topic I argued that no one who was supporting Sanders did it because of his “outsider-ness” but rather because of his liberal-ness. Ask Democrats if they want an “outsider” and I respectfully submit that they’ll say “who gives a shit?” or “um, maybe, who are we talking about?” Because Jim Webb qualifies as an outsider, but virtually no one says “I have misgivings about Hillary Clinton. We need to shake things up. How about that Jim Webb?” And the reason for that is that Jim Webb is much more a _conservative_ than he is an _outsider_. And Sanders is much more a liberal than he is an outsider. Ergo, Democrats with reservations about Clinton may _say_ that they want an outsider, but they want an outsider who is liberal, and my educated guess is that they’d be fine with a seasoned, steady insider who was liberal too. I think Hillary Clinton vs. Jerry Brown would be virtually identical numerically to Clinton vs. Sanders.
Baud
@FlipYrWhig:
I disagree. I think there are some vocal Sanders supporters (and I don’t know how large a group they are) who support Sanders because of anti-establishment feeling. A good number of them are former Paulites.
Walker
A lot of younger voters like Sanders over HRC. The big question is whether they will stay home and not vote when Sanders loses the nom. Of course, they generally stay home, so that would not be new.
Shantanu Saha
I suspect that Hillary Clinton is more likable than Dylan Byers. Just sayin.
J R in WV
@Pogonip:
You need to remember that all these methods of killing fleas use deadly poisons, you do know that right?
In Florida they do a thing called tenting, where they wrap a building in huge sheets of impermeable tarp, and then fill the building with poisonous gas – for a long time. Quite expensive, too. The good thing is that once they push the poisonous gas out of the building with ventilators, there’s normally no residue.
Even for the less toxic insecticides sold to the public, those are still dangerous, and could have long term negative health effects. So after care is very important, cleaning and shampooing to reduce residue of the pesticides.
I wonder if you could park the car in the bright sun and use heat to kill the fleas? I know they can do this for bedbugs from reading articles about it.
Now you can put systemic treatments on your dogs which keeps fleas from reproducing, and repels both fleas and ticks, so that such infestations can be prevented by pet owners. We haven’t even seen a flea for many years now, and usually only one or two ticks a year, and they were suffering before we found them.
I haven’t heard of someone with no pets getting an infestation like this before.
bystander
Chuckles now has a daily Meet the Press on MSNBC. An armed invader made me turn the channel and forced me to watch Chuckles pronounce that Biden taking so long to decide whether to enter the race is “crushing” HRC. Crushing.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: I guess I was thinking in terms of Democrats, but, point taken.
Roger Moore
@FlipYrWhig:
Which shows that they don’t know as much about Jerry Brown as they think they do. He has not been particularly liberal his second go around as governor of California. He was willing to raise taxes to get us out of our budget hole rather than just cut spending, but he’s been very reluctant to use any of our surplus to rebuild the programs that were cut to balance the budget before the tax increases went through. I would say that he is a good example of what socially liberal and fiscally conservative would actually look like.
Baud
@Roger Moore: What I can’t wrap my head around is how invisible O’Malley is, even though his positions are essentially as liberal as Sanders’.
FlipYrWhig
@Roger Moore: Or I could just be totally wrong! That’s who came to my mind as the ultimate establishment liberal. Put in Pat Leahy or Barbaras Boxer or Mikulski for the sake of argument.
Brachiator
@Archon:
@Amir Khalid
In return for avoiding a nasty fight that would have torn apart the Democratic Party, and to ensure Bill Clinton’s support, I strongly suspect that Obama promised HRC a role in his administration. Some supporters wanted her for the VP slot, but Obama was not having it. I also think that had he not given her something, her political career may have come to an end.
But by naming her Secretary of State, he kept her viable as a potential presidential candidate.
He has repaid the favor.
I don’t pay that much attention to the “Hillary is weak” stuff. But I am not a Villager nor any of the hangers-on. If conventional wisdom suggests that Hillary cannot weather the storm, and Biden steps in, I will bet that Obama would back him to the hilt. There is still some vulnerability here, as the GOP would exploit any rift, and the wrath of Bill Clinton would be thunderous.
The nomination is HRC’s if she can take it. She almost did it last time. But “almost” just makes you a footnote. She has to show that she has the political skills to win.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: I expected more out of O’Malley too.
Gravenstone
@Anne Laurie: I don’t even want to think about trying to clean the interior windows if you fog a car. That shit will smear like no ones business.
Gex
@Baud: I’m seeing that in my circles which has a lot of younger male libertarian types (comedians).
Although his stance on gun control is making some of them waffle.
Baud
@Gex:
And you have to wonder whether they would stick with Sanders in a general election against a Republican (although this year it may depend on which clown they choose as their nominee).
Roger Moore
@Baud:
I think the Freddie Gray business really hurt him. It turned his past as mayor of Baltimore, and to a lesser extent as governor of Maryland, into a big negative instead of a big positive. It’s very hard to present yourself as the good guy liberal when the PD you helped to build is running out of control like that.
Gravenstone
@workworkwork: A sociopath, in other words.
Brachiator
@SatanicPanic: RE: But she has never run a national political campaign, apart from her last primary run.
Not at all. I do not confuse or conflate Hillary Clinton’s political career with that of her husband.
Roger Moore
@FlipYrWhig:
You may be wrong, but plenty of other people are wrong exactly the same way. Even here in California, people treat Brown as if he’s still Governor Moonbeam rather than the hard headed pragmatist he’s turned into; it’s hard to imagine that the rest of the country would have a more up-to-date impression of him.
Cervantes
@Baud:
How do you document that last bit?
Also, are there any “former Paulites” supporting Clinton or any other Democrat? Why (not)?
Baud
@Roger Moore: I’ve heard that theory, but I’m having a hard time believing that that’s the only reason why he can’t get any traction whatsoever. But I’ve got no better explanation.
Gravenstone
@Archon: I don’t see Obama endorsing anyone until after the convention. As you said, there’s no gain and I believe he feels either Clinton or Biden (in the unlikely event he chose to run) would work to continue his signature issues.
Elizabelle
ABC World News Tonight:
“Hillary slumping poll numbers.”
Clip of Trump calling Hillary “shrill.”
But there’s another definition of that word. (See: K-Thug.) Now: Planned Parenthood.
“Carly Fiorina describing a video she saw herself.”
Baud
@Cervantes:
My impression on this point is mostly based on the commentary of pro-Sanders supporters on Reddit and other second-hand stories and news accounts I’ve heard.
Kathleen
@dedc79: And the Republicans are the Cincinnati Reds (worst or almost worst team in baseball).
Baud
@Elizabelle: They’ll be talking about Hillary’s poor poll numbers until January 2025.
Cervantes
@Baud:
I’d love details if you have the time to provide any.
Meanwhile, if O’Malley’s positions are similar to those of Sanders, as maybe you indicated above, then, based on your reading of Reddit and so on, are there “former Paulites” supporting O’Malley as well?
Baud
@Cervantes:
I don’t have details. I don’t document my Internet reading on Excel spreadsheets.
No one is supporting O’Malley.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
I can’t speak for anyone else, but that’s the main thing that turned me off.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Yes they will. sigh
goblue72
@Roger Moore: Thank you. As a Californian, was about to post the same thing – the Jerry Brown that ran for President in the 1990s that the rest of the country thinks is Jerry Brown isn’t the Jerry Brown of 2015. Governor Moonbeam is now Governor Skinflint – though, truthfully, he’s always been a bit of tightwad. Just that now, he’s made his tightwad-ness his main claim to fame. He hasn’t really pushed through any major legislation (besides the temp tax increase he put to the voters during during the downturn), and as you note – he hasn’t really pushed to restore the social welfare safety net cuts that occurred during the downturn.
He’s got into an occasional pissing match with Janet Napolitano over UC tuition increases, but hasn’t rolled back those increases – in contrast to say the University of Washington. And he really loves his high-speed choo-choo train, even though its completely stuck in the dried up mud in the Central Valley somewhere. (Here in the Bay Area, I’m pretty sure we just bought ourselves the most expensive, fanciest bus station in the form of the Transbay Terminal – somebody it may serve rail, but we’ll all be dead by then)
Cervantes
@Baud:
I’ll bear that in mind.
Despite the similarity between his positions and those of Sanders? I wonder why that is.
(Not that I disagree with you about the level of his support at this stage.)
Baud
@Cervantes:
I do too. That was my original comment.
Cervantes
@Baud:
Would you say Sanders has been a more effective campaigner thus far?
Relative to O’Malley, I hasten to add.
Baud
@Cervantes: The poll numbers and media and blog coverage bear that out.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: I don’t document my Internet reading on Excel spreadsheets.
If you want to be treated as a serious Presidential candidate, you’d better up your game.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
6:53 pm, September 29, 2015. Gin & Tonic reply to my comment. Suggested improvements to campaign protocols.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cervantes: I am obviously not Baud, but the poll results certainly indicate that Sanders is a more effective campaigner than O’Malley.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I chalk that up to BAUD!2016.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Let no one say you can’t learn.
kc
Great moments in the career of April Ryan:
“Mr. President, as the nation is at odds over war, with many organizations like the Congressional Black Caucus pushing for continued diplomacy through the UN, how is your faith guiding you?” – Ryan to George W. Bush at press conference on March 17, 2003
Cervantes
@Gin & Tonic:
I disagree.
An old marketing slogan I agreed with: “Friends don’t let friends use spreadsheets.”
Granted, it was all about the use of spreadsheets for modeling, especially dynamic modeling, not for simple record-keeping.
kc
@FlipYrWhig:
Jesus Christ.
Roger Moore
@goblue72:
Honestly, though, I think Governor Skinflint is more or less correct. The reason we got into such bad budgetary trouble in the first place is because we do have a tendency to spend money as fast as it comes in when times are good. Today, times aren’t that good, but we have some money from higher taxes. We really should be using that money to pay down debts and build up a reserve rather than on more program spending so that we won’t have to go through the same kind of painful cuts the next time the economy gets in trouble. We shouldn’t even be talking about new programs until we have a really solid fiscal position.
Gin & Tonic
@Cervantes: I disagree.
Bqhatevwr.
Cervantes
@FlipYrWhig:
Perfect.
Couldn’t ask for more, really.
Gvg
i have a bunch of money dead feelings about the D’s in this race and make the common assumption that my opinions are typical of other dem voters.
O’Malley is dead to me because of the Police issues revealed by the riots and the fact that a lot of statistical lying was involved in his prior good record. No thanks, I have enough trouble figuring out what’s going on with our lame media, I don’t need more difficulty finding reality.
Last time I wanted to avoid what I thought would be the endless republican Hillary hysteria and thought Obama wouldn’t provoke as much. Naïve me didn’t realize how completely racist a significant minority of the population was. i knew there had been enough change that he could get elected, I just didn’t realize that the racists didn’t know things had changed and we’re going to show how nuts they were after. Now I am so pissed at the racism and sexism I have heard the last few years that I want to get in their face and elect a woman. Could dream of a better one but I am not holding out for a unicorn.
Sanders I hope will drag some voters left but actually has some flaws himself, so I prefer Hillary. Biden should not commit but hang around. I have some concerns about Hillary’s age and health so I want a back up even though he is older. sanders too isn’t a spring chicken. I think Biden would be preferable to sanders because my impression is he actually gets legislation through. I like real results not proposals that run aground.
Things are better than in 2008 but in my opinion there are a lot of racial injustices, a real war on women and the financial sector needs lots more regulation and money spent on enforcement. the very serious nature of all 3 kinds of problems will mean competion for attention and solutions.
i hate and fear all the republicans.
Capri
@Pogonip: Spray the surfaces down with a decent quality, long-lasting flea spray. Keep the car closed up for 4-5 hours. Let it air our before driving it. Can also throw a few flea collars under the seats.
Keep your own pets flea protected.
Cervantes
@Omnes Omnibus:
You asked for a source earlier. I provided it.
(Mentioning it in case you missed it.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Cervantes: I saw it. Thank you.
Bobby Thomson
@Baud: the plural of anecdote ain’t data. The Paulines I know all mock Sanders.
Baud
@Bobby Thomson:
The plural if anecdote is anecdotes.
And I didn’t say every Pauline converted to Berniism.
Thoughtful Today
Again:
Bernie’s supporters are fans of his policies. He’s got young adults coming out a full year before the actual election,
He went from 20 points behind to having some polls showing him within single digits nationally.
Because: pol-i-cies
Neldob
@Pogonip: Borax is really good. Gets the fleas before they can reproduce. Maybe someone already mentioned this.
randy khan
@Bobby Thomson: Actually, multiples anecdotes *are* data. Maybe not very reliable data, but data nevertheless.
Eric U.
If HRC is floundering so much, they should at least have Sanders on occasionally, at least 3x the number of times they have the 5% types from the republican clown car
jefft452
@FlipYrWhig: ‘“Outsider” is the way you can suspiciously easy answer (1) Why Trump? (2) Why Sanders?’
Sanders is not an outsider, he is a sitting Senator, ex long time Congressman and ex Mayor
“It’s almost as popular on the left as it is on the right”
That explains the Lawrence Lessing surge, even the left wants someone who is “not a politician”
Oh wait, Lawrence Lessing is at 0% while Trump, Carson, and Fiorina lead on the right
Davis X. Machina
@Thoughtful Today:
Three words: President. Howard. Dean.
(Full disclosure — Dean donor, caucus captain and state convention delegate.)
Cervantes
@jefft452:
Some people insist that “both sides do it”-style contempt for the left is mandatory even at the expense of facts. You must not have received the memo.
Admiral_Komack
@Omnes Omnibus: l
Which, a year before the Presidential election, means absolutely nothing.
Omnes Omnibus
@Admiral_Komack: It’s getting her millions of dollars, campaign staff, offices and volunteers in key states. Some thing more than nothing, I would think.
ASV
I have it on good authority that Hillary is likable enough.
SiubhanDuinne
@Iowa Old Lady:
Was this GMI?
Fred Fnord
“…and there are Democrats who feel that even Obama wasn’t pure enough on the left.”
This says everything you need to know about him. “Ha ha ha Obama and Clinton are as far left as it is possible to be and everyone who thinks that they are further left than Obama or Clinton are just purity trolls who are stupid ha ha ha.”
Fuck him sideways with a spork.
SiubhanDuinne
@Gin & Tonic:
Some say the world will end in fire…
@Tripod:
…Some say in ice.
Thoughtful Today
policies, policies, policies…
Policies: Healthcare, banking regulation, climate change, racial justice, worker’s rights, minimum wage, trade, war, the death penalty….
!
Dmbeaster
@Pogonip: A fogger already mentioned above and/or flea carpet powder for the carpets. The powders, which are salt based as I recall, also prevent reinfestation for up to a year. The foggers are toxic but break down promptly and are designed for use in the home. The carpet powders are non-toxic.
Jane
@Pogonip:
Treat your dog with something that will kill all the fleas that will bite him – like Advantage or Capstar.
Then take your dog for a nice, long ride.
Presto Change-o!All the fleas in you car will bite your dog and then die.
That’s actually true of your house, too.
The yard is different, what with wild critters coming and going, but Capstar is good to have around for when your dog is exposed to a flea environment.
Jane
@Pogonip: Another flea eradication note:
Anything that doesn’t get in the crevices or under the seats, in pockets and the like won’t get all the fleas in your car.
That would rule out any powders you apply and even foggers and sprays, which is mentioned on their labels, if I recall correctly.
That’s why I suggested you use your dog as bait. The fleas are probably nearly starved in your car, so a tasty dog will act as a lure.
Capstar, btw, is a short-acting flea killer. It comes in a chewable tablet which my dogs like a lot.
It’s great for when your dog has been at the dog park or some other infested place and you don’t want to bring any fleas back to your house.