Cerebral, halting and sound bite-averse: Jeb Bush has struggled on the debate stage before http://t.co/o1tUYAs1ZW pic.twitter.com/POCACX30Ta
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) September 14, 2015
"Cerebral" is a nice way to say "prone to putting his entire foot in his mouth." https://t.co/V85PKi9bY0
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) September 14, 2015
From the NYTimes article:
…In a Republican presidential debate season dominated by glib showmanship and volcanic personality, Mr. Bush, the former governor of Florida, faces a daunting challenge: How can he excite primary voters during Wednesday’s televised rumpus with a sober and cerebral style that can appear tepid next to the insult-spraying, nuance-avoidant, made-for-TV manner of Donald J. Trump?
Now, after failing to directly confront Mr. Trump, the current front-runner, during the first debate, Mr. Bush and his aides are under pressure to create a memorable showdown with the real estate developer to match a newly aggressive tone on the campaign trail…
In rigorous practice sessions that have crisscrossed the country in the past few weeks, Mr. Bush has been preparing pointed responses to Mr. Trump’s most frequent insults (he has called Mr. Bush “low energy” and a slave to donors) and crafting lines of attack on Mr. Trump’s history of liberal statements and unconventional policy plans, according to those who have been told of the plans…
The difficulty for Mr. Bush, who has portrayed himself as the most mature and civil figure in the Republican presidential field, is how to inflict damage on Mr. Trump in front of a live national audience without diminishing himself in the process — a tricky task given Mr. Trump’s lust for the fierce counterpunch and Mr. Bush’s disdain for memorizing sound bites….
So JEB(!) is planning to show up at the Reagan Shrine Library, for an eleven-person “debate” moderated by a radio host the Guardian just referred to as “now the most influential conservative journalist in Republican presidential politics, the thinking candidate’s Rush Limbaugh and the brain to Matt Drudge’s secretive brawn”… and out-insult-comic Donald Trump.
His best hope is that one of the other mopes on stage will attract the Donald’s erratic attention first. Despite his long years in the family business, JEB has neither what passes in politics for “intellectual heft” or much of a gift for showmanship. When he can’t send out his thugs to intimidate people, or his daddy’s hand-picked lawyers to cheat them, JEB is out of his element.
… Theatrics have failed Mr. Bush at times. During a dramatic 1994 exchange in Tampa, he dared the sitting governor of Florida, Lawton Chiles, to look into the eyes of Mr. Bush’s business partner, who sat a few feet away in the audience, and repeat an attack on the two men’s ethics.
“I know you don’t respect me, but I know you respect Armando Codina,” Mr. Bush said. “Can you look him in the eye and say that we’ve done anything wrong?”
Mr. Chiles, deploying his Southern drawl and a gift for outmaneuvering opponents, looked toward Mr. Codina, smiled and reflected on the businessman’s wisdom in hiring the son of an American president.
“I think,” Mr. Chiles declared, “he made a good business decision when he took you on as a partner.”
The audience broke into loud laughter. A few days later, Mr. Bush lost the election…
In my fantasy, he’ll fall back on his weird idiom from earlier this year, and call on Trump to “step outside” and settle it mano-a-mano. At which point, Trump’s head bully and Romney’s former bodyguards start fronting each other on camera. Side bet: Which of the other nine candidates throws the first punch on the dais?
Anoniminous
cerebral: adj intellectual rather than emotional or physical
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ………………
No. I don’t think so.
A guy
The amount of time and effort spent on the republicans on this blog has convinced me the socialists are scared
Baud
They broke out the thesaurus to make Bush look good.
peach flavored shampoo
There’s a debate tonite?
Baud
@peach flavored shampoo:
Wednesday
Anoniminous
@A guy:
Define the fundamental idea of Socialism.
A guy
Anything I don’t like or approve of is socialism
Schlemazel
Boy! They sure are pimping hard for that useless sack of shit
Litlebritdifrnt
I am watching the Trump thing, he is saying nothing. He is speaking, speaking, speaking, and yet saying nothing. The crowds are going wild every time he says nothing. It is absolutely incredible. I have never seen a spectacle like this.
qwerty42
@A guy: Anything but government assistance to farmers is creeping socialism.
Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937
@A guy: I’m trembling in my shoes. That ‘deep bench’ is intimidating.
raven
@qwerty42: Don’t talk to that fucking moron.
JPL
@Litlebritdifrnt: I’m watching it and comparing it to Sander’s speech earlier today. lol
ThresherK
I understand that Gob Bluth was created in the likeness of Jeb.
That said, does Jeb know that “mano-a-mano” isn’t Spanish for “man to man”? Cos I can really see Gob Bluth making that mistake.
errg
Jeb thinking up attacks on Trump must be like George Costanza with his “Jerk Store” insult…
raven
@JPL: You’re not watching the birds? It’s on over the air tonight.
gocart mozart
This Catch 22 quote has been summoned by querty42.
Turgidson
@Litlebritdifrnt:
Uttering a bunch of words but saying nothing has been a staple of GOP campaigns for decades now. Trump’s just more theatrical about it and less concerned with seeming like he’s saying something. Only losers like Jeb! worry about things like that.
JPL
@raven: I am, it’s on mute though. I’m getting bored with Trump though so that might change after the commercial.
Roger Moore
@ThresherK:
He ought to, since one the things that’s supposed to make him come across as relatively moderate is that he’s married to a Mexican American and knows Spanish.
NotMax
Dibs on Christie.
Bex
Any engineers/creative types out there? Kitty needs some help. Cassidy is a rescued feral kitten who is missing his back feet. His foster mom is asking if anyone can rig up some wheels for him so he can get around…”please email me at [email protected] if you might be able to provide some sort of wheeled chair or sling to fit an adorable 600-700 gram 9 week old kitten.”
http://livestream.com/tinykittens/cassidy
Benw
In honor of MNF: what’s the difference between a Republican candidate and a NFL player?
In the NFL, it usually takes a few years before the crippling brain damage becomes obvious.
Ryan
If I was Trump, I’d say “Only losers are the second born.” jeb. is one of the worst campaigners I’ve seen to date.
JPL
@NotMax: That would be awesome! Trump would probably ask him, if he plans on serving while in jail.
Cervantes
@Litlebritdifrnt:
@Turgidson:
Not sure about all this.
Seems to me that Republicans, and/including Trump, have said many harmful and dangerous things.
Doug R
Aww are the bullies fighting?
Lurking Canadian
@errg: I was thinking exactly the same thing.
Mandalay
@Litlebritdifrnt:
He is boldly going where Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber have already been.
Trump is like William F. Buckley jr. next to them.
Turgidson
@Cervantes:
Of course. I didn’t say they never say actual things. And most of what they actually say is terrifying.
But a big, big part of their campaign strategy is to utter words that, when actually analyzed for content or coherence, have none.
Edited to add – Democrats do some of this too, especially when they’re running away from their own successful president, but they’re not nearly as devoted to it as a linchpin of their campaign strategy.
Baud
There should be a twitter hashtag for putdowns that Jeb will use against Trump.
I’m going with “ruffian.” #JebAttacks
NotMax
@JPL
Or pointedly inquire how Christie intended to throw his weight around.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Litlebritdifrnt: how many times has he puffed his chest about standing up to political correctness in one form air another? I think that’s the second biggest plank in his platform, after mass deportations
JPL
@Mandalay: From what I saw, he’s more like Charlie Sheen. Winning!
Schlemazel
@Ryan:
He was as good a governor as he was a candidate and a better governor than business man.
Like wierd al on jeopardy he is a complete loser
ThresherK
@Roger Moore: Yeah, I know that’s the way he’s described, but as a Yankee who has little use for Texan pols, I don’t want to go for the cheap insult because it seems funny. Thought I’d ask if someone who knew a bit better before I directly compare him:
Villago Delenda Est
NYTPolitics, you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
M. Bouffant
Hugh “I’m on the front line of the War on Terror because my radio studio is in the Empire State Building!” Hewitt?
Well, admittedly he’s no Limbaugh.
Jeffro
@NotMax:
Probably on target. Several of these guys are floundering around at this point – wouldn’t surprise me to see Christie, Paul, and Walker all get quite carried away. Dibs on Walker saying the most “oooh-that-sure-is-gonna-hurt-ya-in-the-general-election” comment of the bunch.
Elizabelle
Cervantes thinks the NY Times actually should have gone with
Looks like, but NOT the thing.
The NYTimes is out of control with the Republican-fluffing, Clinton-hating, and Sanders-ignoring.
A point in reporter Barbaro’s favor though: he ended his article with Jeb! losing to Lawton Chiles, who deployed a raccoon story in a debate, to stunning effect.
Jeffro
@Litlebritdifrnt:
All pure emotion – anger, fear, anger again. Not a policy discussion or platform in sight. The GOP, just as engine #2 flames out and the nose begins to pitch downward…
Schlemazel
@Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937:
That deep bench scares the shit out of me! The thought that any of these brain damaged sociopaths is this close to being POTUS should scare any reasonable, sane person.
JPL
@Jeffro: Walker wants to be VP, so he’ll be on his best behavior.
Forked Tongue
@Anoniminous:
Is there an equivalent adjective meaning “none of the above”?
Ajabu
I was just watching some of the Trump “performance”.
He’s obviously completely full of shit but, like anybody else (including me) who has spent his life dealing with audiences, he can be entertaining as hell. I’m just an aging broke ass musician and I can talk extemporaneously for an hour or so without a teleprompter, too. It’s a learned skill, like swimming or driving a car.
Also, too, I wouldn’t have any consequential to say either but – like Trump – I could entertain your ass off. You’d have a great time.
However, I’m not trying to get my hands on the fucking nuclear codes. I can only hope that when the actual voting gets started people will admit they enjoyed the show but get rational.
(Obviously I mean the general. The Repug primaries are a whole other ball game.)
ETA – I had a good friend who was a very successful comedian and he could do an hour of standup in which a lot of his act would appear “spontaneous” but was so scripted you’d think it was carved in stone if you knew the material well, like I did.)
It’s craft, people, and I have to admit, Trump is damn good at his craft. But he’s a boorish asshole.
That is all.
Turgidson
@Jeffro:
Walker’s aides will just tell him to imagine that Trump is wearing an SEIU t-shirt and that should be enough to get Scottie into fine insult-hurling form.
Roger Moore
@Turgidson:
This shouldn’t be a big surprise. Republican politicians are advocating policies that are actually disastrous for their supporters, but they still need to talk about those issues without coming right out and describing what they’re going to do in enough detail that the voters will understand how bad their ideas are. The best choice is to change the subject, but when they do need to talk about the issues, they need to be able to talk a lot without actually saying anything.
mdblanche
The Bushes are one of those families where the title of The Smart One is graded and awarded based on a very generous curve. Sort of like how historians seriously consider the emperor depicted in Amadeus to be The Smart Hapsburg. My vote for The Smart Bush is Neil. He knew to just take the money and run.
Ryan
@mdblanche: Nice.
jl
I hope Walker and Jeb? keep trying to sell tired twice or thrice retreaded supply side trickle-up economic policy in this year of populist / progressive revolt in both parties (Sanders on D and Trump on R sides).
Seems like their con is exhausted and the best they can do is run it just one more time anyway, since it always worked in the past.
Hope Jeb? repeats his brilliant sales job on his double down Bush II doubly supply side voodoo tax cuts: “You have to let the big dogs eat.” Or, maybe Trump has noted it down and will use it, and slam Bush for pushing unfair tax cuts under the very thing disguise of Trump’s proposal to raise taxes a little on hedge fund managers.
“The floundering contestant Jeb stole my proposal to tax hedge fund managers fairly and is trying to use it dishonestly to sell his unfair tax policy. That is very very unclassy. Something only a loser would do. When Jeb met with his billionaire funders, did he even try to get a great deal for the regular people? Maybe we should ask him. I say we ask him. You do you think?”
Trump has watched the dishonest Jeb? founder around petulantly long enough to start unloading on him that way. I think it would be much smarter for Trump to challenge Jeb? on economics than, say, race bait Jeb? to his face on immigration or his wife. Sadly, Trump is at least as likely to do something vile like the latter at the debate.
kdaug
Don’t much matter. Win-win, either way.
JPL
@Litlebritdifrnt: So I had to turn him on mute for awhile and just now put him back on… What scaffolding is he keeping up forever?
Mandalay
@NotMax:
Christie is down to 1% in the latest WaPo poll.
Gone by the end of the month.
Behind bars by the end of next year.
cckids
@Litlebritdifrnt: I know, right? I turned it on to watch Chris Hayes, and . . . Trump, Trump, and more Trump. D’Trump LIVE with a “breaking news” chyron running under his Ooompa-loompa face. I can only take a few minutes before switching, to avoid throwing things or throwing up. What is the f*cking appeal of this clown ????
Omnes Omnibus
@mdblanche: Dorothy.
Frankensteinbeck
@Turgidson:
I disagree. The things Trump and other Republicans say have both meaning and coherence. You’re using the wrong dictionary. That Republican candidates can speak apparent gibberish and their base thinks it’s brilliant is the proof of dog whistles. Communication is happening, but someone who is not tuned into racist assholery cannot see the meaning, and thus the communicators don’t have to worry they’ll be called racists. For two examples, when they say they want liberty, they mean they want to feel free to oppress minorities. When they say they want America to be great again, they mean that they felt much happier about America when white people were totally in charge. Obama’s election of course was a huge blow to both sentiments, and is why those particular dog whistles have become so prevalent.
NobodySpecial
@Roger Moore: “Lord Dorwin, gentlemen, in five days of discussion didn’t say one damned thing, and said it so you never noticed.”
RK
Is Bob Schooley your relative or something? That CNN and MSNBC are showing the entire Trump rally is really pathetic. And how anyone can stand listening to this narcissist for more than a minute is beyond me.
Litlebritdifrnt
@JPL: @cckids: I have no idea what fucking scaffolding he is talking about, in fact I have no fucking idea what he is talking about period. I am baffled.
jl
Also, what brain dead scribblers in the media are calling Jeb? cerebral and wonky when he has repeatedly misstated simple facts that I think even many low info voters know. Like what is the damn social security retirement age? Or Medicare eligibility? You think a lot of otherwise low info regular working stiff do not know that? Their lives may depend on them planning out how to get their in one piece.
Maybe Jeb? can get away with serial heinous ignorance with our corrupt and incompetent ignorant corporate media hacks. But I think a lot of people will find out Jeb? says weirdly ignorant wrong stuff. Trump, HRC and Sanders, or their people, are surely keeping track and making a list.
Maybe better in some ways that the media keeps letting Jeb? slide, so he can have that deer in the freight train head lights look (politically) when he gets seriously challenged in debate.
Sorry, for nasty doomed deer metaphor. At least I will say that said doomed deers do not deserve their fates.
M31
I can’t wait for the next absurd analogy from one of these clowns.
Trump: “My rich-kid boarding school was just like the real military”
Walker: “I can fight ISIS! I fought against the Teacher’s Union!”
JPL
@M31: Carson is going to save us from the Nazi’s by ridding us of ObamaCare.
M31
@NobodySpecial: Wow, a Lord Dorwin reference. Nice.
Hungry Joe
If I were advising Jeb on how to handle Trump, I’d suggest a Tonya Harding>Nancy Kerrigan-style kneecapping. Executed by Jeb himself, early in the debate. It’s his only chance.
rikyrah
I don’t see how Trump has to spend any money on ads….Not when you have networks showing his rallies…..looking at you—MSNBC.
Mandalay
@Roger Moore:
I think Hewitt will claim a scalp or two on Wednesday with that approach. He’ll lead them up to the scaffold, then let them hang themselves.
JPL
@Mandalay: Is that the scaffolding that Trump is going to keep up? See comment 58.
jl
@cckids: You have to consider his audience. What is the appeal of Carson?
And BTW, I heard local SF Bay Area news coverage of Carson. They have been good at asking real questions to pols who swing through the area, and the responses have been interesting.
They asked Carson how he reconciled his reliance on government aid when he was a kid and its role in his success (used his own words in the questinon, IIRC) and his proposals to drastically cut back those programs. Carson got quite pissy, called it total crap, or something, and accused the reporter of asserting his policy was to abolish the programs. But, hell,you could hear the damn question and it asserted no such thing, and I guess the reporter was pissed and emphasized at the end of his report that he did not say Carson was abolishing the programs.
Carson also got pissy when he was challenged, though simple ‘what newspapers and magazines do you read’ type questions on Silicon Valley, and he basically showed no knowledge about the place or the industry, had no thoughts on it at all.
So, maybe some Jeb? like self-entitlement and petulance underneath the nice guy veneer with Carson. Maybe worse, since fundie self-righteousness maybe in addition.
Baud
@rikyrah:
No kidding. I knew MSNBC was going downhill, but I was shocked.
Cervantes
@Elizabelle:
Egregious, yes, and see also their coverage of Corbyn.
But as for “out of control,” I think it’s precisely the opposite!
JPL
@jl: Months ago, I heard him say his family was deserving and now a days they aren’t. I had visions of him lining folks up and say you deserve, you don’t. That single discussion bothered me more than all his other crackpot statements.
jl
@Roger Moore: But that is the political anti-genius of Jeb? On his tax porposal: “You have to let the big dogs eat.”
Is Jeb? too dumb, or slow witted to remember to pump out some happy happy rising tide lifts all boats supply side rubbish?
But Jeb? went straight Donner Party conservatism, which is a loser in any year, and inexcusably dumb and hapless in a year with Trump and Sanders.
rikyrah
@Litlebritdifrnt:
The GOP routinely says nothing.
Trump is better at it than the rest of them COMBINED.
Jeffro
@Mandalay:
Him and Jindal and Pataki should be, yeah, but Christie may have a sugar daddy that I’m too lazy to Google. I really do think Graham will run a Gilmore-ish non campaign if he has to, just to last 1 day past Rand Paul.
Nickel bet for Wednesday’s debate: once again Rubio will be served up more than a few softballs and the punditry will of course praise his deft handling of them. Fiorina the same, only slightly less so.
Anoniminous
@Forked Tongue:
Psychopath, maybe?
Cervantes
@rikyrah:
And how does that appeal to their supporters?
Mike J
@Jeffro:
She already got the rules changed to let her in the debate.
Roger Moore
@jl:
You just have to remember that those journalists are comparing politicians’ intelligence to their own. By that standard ¡Jeb! is indeed a towering intellect.
Chris
Open thread, right? St. Catherine Greek Orthodox Monastery In Egypt Shuts Down, on account of Egyptian authorities fearing a terrorist attack. For those not aware, it’s a monastery that exists at the foot of Mount Sinai; while it’s Christian Greek Orthodox, the area is historically considered sacred to Christians, Jews and Muslims alike, on account of Moses being recognized as a prophet in all three religions. According to the article, it’s also the oldest continuously inhabited monastery in the Christian world.
I know it’s nowhere near on the scale of what’s going on in Iraq and Syria, but I’ve actually visited this one, so it caught my eye. Sad side note to the general madness sweeping the region. At least it’s a preemptive measure and no attacks have actually happened yet. Or, hopefully, ever.
Baud
@Cervantes:
I agree.
kdaug
@jl:
You come up with an antidote, I’ll buy it in bulk.
JPL
There’s a pretty good football game on, btw. My local ABC is allowing me to watch it.
MazeDancer
@rikyrah:
MSNBC & CNN are carrying the whole Texas speech live. Wall-to-Wall coverage. Fox cut away.
Search MSNBC on Twitter and find unhappy viewers right now.
Don’t understand how the non-stop free publicity for the Donald does not violate the equal time law. Showing him say the same thing over and over is not legit news which is supposed to be exempt from equal time. Actually, Bernie Sanders getting the giant audiences is more newsy. And he’s not getting entire speeches live.
Myiq2xu
There is no war on cops, right?
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/manhunt-launched-after-kentucky-state-trooper-gunned-down-n426786
Baud
@MazeDancer:
Because there isn’t one, and it never applied to cable.
The Pale Scot
@Litlebritdifrnt:
You know who else they said that about.
beltane
@Chris: The whole cultural mosaic of the Middle East is being obliterated by sociopaths. The region is the human equivalent of an old-growth forest and it is being clear-cut as we speak.
jl
Since it is open thread, on a brighter note, it was good see Sanders did not pull any punches in his speech at Liberty University.
On the other hand, I was a bit disappointed in Sanders’ political skills at persuasion. He has good policy proposals, but I see no sign he will be as successful at persuasion as Bill Clinton or Obama.
From the audience reaction, I can see how he might sway some women at Liberty, and a few of the more free thinking men, but I think either Bill C or Obama would have thought of ways to draw more people in the audience, or more people who watch the video, to consider about joining in common cause on the economic justice issues at least.
I think both would have used many more Bible versus as regular punctuation for the speech to illustrate the Biblical rationale for man policies. And Sanders should have used some stuff from Epistles, since a lot of Liberty University types are Dispensationalist, and believe that is the one and only part of the Bible that still counts today (unless they want to damn gays, of course). I think both Bill Clinton and Obama would have done that. Sanders just had three quotes, but I did skip through some of the speech. But even so, not enough.
Sanders’ will have to get by on straightforward, trustworthy and authentic.
Roger Moore
@JPL:
That’s the essence of IGMFY conservatism. All those programs were great for them because they’re ordinary decent people who just got a bad break, but the people who depend on those programs now are a bunch of godforsaken layabouts taking advantage of good honest people. Judging everyone else is the whole point, Jesus’ comments on judging others notwithstanding.
Anoniminous
Meanwhile on the Dem side Huffpollster has:
Hillary Clinton – 46.6%
Bernie Sanders – 37.2%
Joe Biden – 10.7%
Biden had been polling at 19%. I expected his supporters to swing back to Hillary but they seem to be going to Sanders?
The two most recent polls from CBS/YouGov and Quinnipiac have Sanders in the lead. I’m not sure I believe it.
rikyrah
@jl:
Have said it before, and will continue to say it: the depth of my contempt for Carson is the fact that he got EVERYTHING FREE FROM THE GOVERNMENT. He was fortunate enough to grow up in a time where if you were poor and talented, this country was willing to invest in you. Carson went to school FREE. A similar young person with his promise today would be saddled with $200,000 in debt by the time they finished medical school. Not only that, but if Carson lived in today’s zero tolerance society- He would be firmly ensconced in the school to prison pipeline. And yes, he does have the nerve to disparage government programs that helped HIM.
Baud
@Anoniminous:
The WSJ is officially worried about Sanders. They have an article that Sanders’ proposals will cost $18 trillion.
Mandalay
@jl:
He is an outsider, and not a politician. But he is not persuaded that man has played any part in climate change, and he does not believe in evolution. And for all his laid-back demeanor, he gets exasperated and irritated far too easily when he doesn’t like the questions.
The more he faces scrutiny the more his limitations will become apparent. If I had to make a single bet on how all the GOP candidates will fare over the next few months it would be to wager that Carson is going to crash and burn in a big way.
Chris
@JPL:
This is exactly what conservatives want to go back to as a welfare model. It’s why they want to cut up the public safety net and make everything dependent on private charity – because then, they get to determine which of the poor are truly Deserving, and which aren’t. (And make the aid conditional on controlling the behavior of their recipients. Want to feed your family tonight? Then you’d better sit through this sermon! And I’d better see you at Bible study!)
Jeffro
@Mike J:
Oh I know, and I think the pundits would still like to prop her up a bit. I just don’t seem them going all in on her…there’s not enough ‘there’ there…hence the ‘like Rubio, only less so’.
It will be fun finally hearing all of the anti-Trump lines they’ve been working so hard on these past few weeks, to see which ones fall flat. Cruz sure won’t have any and I doubt Rubio will have much either. But the rest are sinking fast and have already declared war…
cckids
@jl: Yeah, I don’t get Carson’s appeal either, but he’s not getting covered like Trump. Both of them seem very, VERY thin-skinned. I’ll bet that Carson wouldn’t be able to get away with Trump’s “Fuck you, I’ll say what I want to say” attitude. See his apology this weekend to Trump for implying that Trump’s “The Bible’s my favorite book” wasn’t a true statement.
Germy Shoemangler
Open Thread:
Someone is always going to make a buck. A year ago, a family of four was murdered in their house. The killer(s) were never found:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/family-killed-people-slain-upstate-new-york-home-article-1.1968369
Immediately after the crime, two investors bought the house (for a song) replaced the carpets, and have now listed it for sale. Profit!
http://www.zillow.com/homes/29709551_zpid/?hdpRedirected=true&3col=true
Jim, Foolish Literalist
and now for everyone who missed the near hour they devoted to Trump, MSNBC is going to replay hyooge chunks of his rambling
@Anoniminous: Quinnipiac has been doing some funky shit lately. Their swing state poll of a couple weeks ago used 2010 turn out models in their weightings, and Pierce has a piece up today showing their poll on HRC is more than a bit pinky
and isn’t YouGov an online polling outfit?
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: There is no sense in comparing Sanders or HRC to either Bill or Obama. Neither of the latter are running.* No one who is running has charisma to match Bill or Obama.
*Although Bill will probably on the campaign trail during the primaries and Obama will certainly hit the trail for the eventual nominee.
raven
@Germy Shoemangler: Sop what should they have done, burn it down?
ThresherK
@mdblanche: Some time ago, in this space, I suggested:
“The smart one” might be Neil Bush, because all he destroyed was Silverado Savings and Loan. (Great minds think alike, etc.)
Then I speculated that there was a drooling, chinless, cross-eyed inbred bastard Bush locked up in an asylum somewhere, like the Hapburgs, who was The Smart One by default.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Why are they polling Republicans for the Democratic primary?
Mike J
@Baud:
Remember when Taibbi told us Obama was going to cost us $25 trillion, and instead the US turned a profit?
RK
The location of the biblical Mount Sinai is unknown, if it’s beyond a narrative fabrication.
Baud
@Mike J:
I don’t, but it doesn’t surprise me.
Germy Shoemangler
@raven: No. And it’ll probably sell, eventually. I wouldn’t want to live there.
jl
@rikyrah: Not a few very successful medical docs, and surgeons get very arrogant and a little funny in the head. Start thinking their clinical training makes them deep thinkers and they sit around pumping out crank analyses proving puzzling developments in physics or math or logic are wrong and if only those arrogant fancy pants eggheads would listen to them, they would get back to good old common sense truth about things.
Or they start thinking that God is talking to them about true solid gold monetary policy that will Solve All Problems and Eliminate Want.
Something similar might have happened to Carson, though maybe he still has enough sense, or cultural background to hide his descent into crankdom in something that sounds like good olde tymey humble mere Christianity.
After I read he was a moderate liberal Democrat when he was doing his pioneering surgical work, I started thinking something when wrong with his head, maybe similar to what happens to some other very successful medical docs.
Anoniminous
@jl:
That was good. I’m glad he went, stood there, told them what he thought, didn’t back down yet sought common ground. One of the advantages of being a policy wonk.
Jeffro
@jl:
I don’t think any of those folks – Sanders, Bill Clinton, or Obama – would expect to draw more than a 1/2 of a % to their side on the basis of one speech. The whole point of that speech was to add to Sanders’ credibility: that he means what he says, that he sticks to his values regardless of the audience, to give off the appearance of trying to reach across the aisle (and I think he was being sincere about that), and that he’s brave enough to venture places Dem candidates don’t normally go.
He can now say, from tomorrow until he either wins the nom or withdraws, “I care enough about the things I stand for to take my message to a place like Liberty University – a place a Democratic candidate might not have made time for in the past – in order to bring this country together, join hands for economic fairness and opportunity, and….etc etc” and he can say it to pretty much any audience.
raven
@Germy Shoemangler: When I first moved here, 31 years ago, a crazy dude killed a lady with an axe in her big house. It sat empty for 20 years before someone finally bought it.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
Ah, the good ol’ Wall St. Urinal. Not going to ask where they got that number, I know they pulled it outta their asses.
beltane
@ThresherK: Neil Bush did give his wife herpes contracted from Thai prostitutes. His brothers would have dropped herpes bombs if they could.
Omnes Omnibus
@RK: And yet there is a present day mountain with that name with a monastery at its foot.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: Typical religious hooey.
Cervantes
@RK:
Well, sure, but who was talking about the biblical one?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: that was the national poll, general elections match ups, and word clouds about the first word you think of for Clntion, Bush, Trump.
Here’s mediate write-up with links to the poll.
Germy Shoemangler
@raven: People are superstitious that way. When I was about ten years old, an elderly woman about two blocks away from us was murdered in her house. They never caught the killer. The house sat empty for several years before a family bought if for a reduced price.
I used to walk past the house every day on my way to school. The fact they never caught the killer freaked everyone out. “What if he comes back?”
Life is a fucking horror movie sometimes. That’s why I watch so many comedies.
Anoniminous
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They were with this poll.
WTH? “funky shit” is an understatement, that’s flat out lying via numbers.
Tripod
I find it odd that H.W. Bush donors bought a railroad locomotive, painted it up in Air Force One colors, numbered it 4141 and labeled for him. It sits under a tarp in the Union Pacific shops in Little Rock, and when he’s nearer to God they run it down to Houston for a funeral train and then donation to his library.
Kay
@Baud:
My husband told me the same thing. It’s a tough time for them. They must be wandering around mumbling “WTF is going on with this populism thing? Is it OVER yet?”
This made me laugh out loud:
https://twitter.com/whimsley?lang=en
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: The existence of a mountain is religious hooey?
RK
@Cervantes: Just a remark for clarification.
Cervantes
@RK:
Got it, thanks.
jl
@Jeffro: Yeah, you are probably right. I was thinking more about his ability to sway the type of person who might watch Sanders because he was talking at Liberty, rather than because he was Sanders, than the audience itself.
I didn’t make that clear enough. Interesting that his lines seemed to get a much better response from women in the audience than the men. Might be more secret Sanders voters among the women than we would expect, but I think you are correct about his lack of appeal to most, and particularly his lack of appeal to men there.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: the name
raven
@Germy Shoemangler: yups
Germy Shoemangler
@Omnes Omnibus: “First there is a mountain, then there is no mountain, then there is.”
Baud
@Anoniminous:
If Sanders is the nominee, I expect cost and taxes will be their main line of attack. Also, they will attack him on national security.
amk
he is cerebral??? in what world?
the msm’s desperation & fear shows.
Mike J
BTW, the largest flyby of WWII aircraft ever (not counting the war) is tomorrow for the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Britain. Channel 4 is doing a documentary on it, but no idea if those of us in the colonies will get to see anything on the news.
Anoniminous
General Comment re: Polls. If anybody trots one out with whites comprising more than ~70% view with suspicion.
raven
@Germy Shoemangler: O Juanita. . .
Heliopause
In fairness to the author of this tweet, damned near any animate object, and a few inanimate ones, look cerebral in comparison to the current GOP frontrunners.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Anoniminous: here’s Kilgore’s report on the swing state poll that showed HRC losing PA and FL to Bush and Rubio last month
Ari Melber is calling Fiorina “Carly”
raven
@Mike J: What did they do that in NYC for?
redshirt
@Germy Shoemangler:
Woah.
Baud
@Kay:
My guess is that Trump scares them more than Sanders. They probably believe that they can easily beat Sanders in a general election.
On the other hand, they can’t like that people are listening to his message, regardless of whether he gets the nom.
scav
@redshirt:
Maybe it’s flashing pink?
Baud
@Kay:
Did you see Walker’s union policy spiel today?
Ruckus
@Bex:
Have a friend who is very conversant in the wheels for pets biz. I’ve sent him an message, as soon as I hear back I’ll let you know.
redshirt
@Baud: Yep. Remember many right wing media outlets we’re actively pro-Obama in 2008 when it seemed like Hillary was the default nominee. Drudge was totally pro-Obama until the very moment it became clear he’d get the nomination. And then….
Anoniminous
@Baud:
Concur.
Ten years ago it would have worked. Today? I don’t know.
jl
@Omnes Omnibus: Whatever places are called today, no one knows much about what or where the Biblical Mount Sinai was supposed to be. It was a mountain someplace between Egypt and the Promised Land where the Bible says God spoke to Moses.
Anne Laurie
@Hungry Joe:
Oh, lawdy.
He’d swing, miss Trump, break his own kneecap, and crush poor Rubio (or possibly Fiorina) when he fell over on them.
At which point Hugh Hewitt would wet himself and cry for his mommy, while Huckabee (and possibly Cruz) started talking in tongues…
Bex
Update to my comment at 22: Handicapped Pets has offered to make a wheelchair for Cassidy. They said people could stop emailing and calling them now!
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: I am not arguing that.
Heliopause
“I’m not a scientist.” – Jeb
raven
@Anoniminous: It’s Ten Years After. . .
Kay
@Baud:
They can’t like that young people are listening to his message. Oh, it’s an attack, Baud. It’s coming from all sides! Even the Pope is on board. He’s practically leading the charge :)
mdblanche
@Chris: I’d be more trusting of the Egyptian authorities’ threat assessments if they hadn’t just mistaken a group of tourists for terrorists.
Baud
@Anoniminous:
I don’t know either. The campaign money diffential would be enormous.
Mandalay
@Jeffro:
The Villagers certainly seemed to think far more of him than the viewers after the Fox debate. Unlike some of his rivals, I am sure he is studying really hard for the foreign policy questions, and I expect he will be able to discuss Syrian refugees and Iran and the Spratly Islands without seeming clueless. But it’s so obvious when he talks that he is just regurgitating learned talking points that he crammed into in his head a few hours earlier.
And beneath that veneer he is still really dumb.
Anoniminous
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Thanks for the info.
wow
I’m stunned. Who is running the joint? Mis and Mal Feasance?
jl
@Baud:
” Also, they will attack him on national security. ”
That will be interesting.
Jeb? will try to explain why he is tapping Dub and his incompetent and crooked crew to advise on foreign policy. Jeb? will try to explain why the Iraq invasion should be ‘relitigated’, or maybe Jeb? will try to trim on that or just spew nonsense.
Sanders will explain his vote on Iraq, and invite people to watch what he said when he explained his vote against the invasion, and invite people to think about his predictions.
HRC will trot out her Iron Lady Secretary of State cred.
I don’t see it working well as an issue for the GOP this time, especially with Jeb?.
Bex
@Ruckus: Thanks for responding. Problem seems to be solved. See my comment at 144.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Tripod: I find it’s odd that it’s in Little Rock. You know who has a Presidential Library in Little Rock?
Baud
@Kay:
I actually don’t know how much they worry about the young people. Young people are easily distracted and frustrated, and they grow into not so young people quickly.
Elizabelle
Watching the Walt Disney documentary on PBS American Masters. Part 1 of 2; four hours total.
With half an ear. Runs again at midnight, and DVRing as well.
catclub
@Baud:
But if the benefit is $19Tr that is all worth it. I am sure they calculated the benefits, too.
Redshift
The only way I can see “cerebral” being applied to Bush is like the old description of Newt Gingrich, “a stupid person’s idea of what a smart person sounds like.”
But I suspect it’s just a lazy response to the fact that he’s not a bomb-thrower, and as long as he speaks in complete sentences they don’t bother to check if he actually knows what the hell he’s talking about.
Baud
@jl:
Really? That didn’t stop them from attacking Obama as a weak Hitler. Presidential politics are different, of course, but I can see it happening.
Trentrunner
@Mandalay: I watched an entire speech of Carson’s.
It was riddled with lectures about “responsibility” that black people have to not become “dependent,” and to bootstrap themselves away from the “drug life.”
In other words, to Republicans, he’s Their Nigger, the one who will inoculate them against their own despicable racism.
THAT’s his appeal.
Baud
@catclub:
Why would they, if the benefits flow to other people?
Anoniminous
@raven:
This Ten Years After?
catclub
@redshirt:
Likewise today with all the far right groups urging Biden to run. (Dick Cheney, for instance.)
srv
I try to find rational answers to Jeb’s problems and this is the best I can find.
Germy Shoemangler
@Elizabelle: I’d love to see American Masters do a documentary on Max and Dave Fleischer.
http://www.fleischerstudios.com
Kay
@Baud:
I did. He’s at 2%. Unions poll much better than Scott Walker does.
Teachers poll better than any of them. Chris Christie would kill for 70% on “trust and confidence”:
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
FIFY.
catclub
@srv: Ethanol? Really? Wow.
Baud
@Kay:
It would have been portrayed as bold and leaderly if he had done that when he was at the top of the polls. Now it just looks desperate.
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Yep.
raven
@Anoniminous: Ain’t but one Alvin Lee!
Anne Laurie
@Anoniminous:
This point in the cycle, there’s a percentage of Anybody-But-Hillary voters who’ll go with the “obvious” alternative. After the Colbert interview, when the conventional wisdom switched from “Biden would be a fool not to run” to “Magic 8Ball — signs point to NO”, those protest candidates started telling pollsters they’d vote for Sanders as the Not-Hillary.
The sane ones — 73%, at least — will still vote for HRC in the general, once they’ve registered their grievances in the primaries.
Cervantes
@Kay:
Hilarious.
See also this.
Kay
@Baud:
Oh, I think it’s important. I know they’re not reliable voters but for the really young ones some of what Sanders says is literally new to them. It’s just a much broader debate than it was even 10 years ago.
Mandalay
@beltane:
You have just made my day. I didn’t know about that story, but it’s a winner:
It’s not easy to lie worse than George and Jeb! but Neil is clearly gifted.
Jeffro
@Mandalay:
Yeah, but give Rubio and/or his campaign credit: they’ve stayed clear while Trump/Bush, Trump/Carson, Trump/Fiorina, and Walker slip-slidin’ away all by his own self have all been going on. Team Rubio must be thinking their odds are improving, while also wondering how they will eventually woo the “Iwannaoutsider!!” voters and fend off Ted Cruz.
If I were Marco, I’d be quietly courting the money boys and GOP establishment while appearing at some (relatively) moderate religious-oriented rallies, with a sprinkling of foreign policy photo ops and speeches. There’s room there to be had on the non-Trump side as Walker, Christie, and Bush slip away, Huck preaches to his most ardent faithful, and Paul stays Paul.
Shana
@Germy Shoemangler: There’s a house in my neighborhood where the teenaged son killed both his parents. It was obviously horrible, mental illness combined with an authoritarian parent. Horrible all around. Anyway, about a year later the house sold. I met the new owners shortly after that at the annual neighborhood picnic. Turned out they’d never been told. Real estate laws in Virginia don’t require disclosure of that sort of thing.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
I’m working for Sanders but I have no illusion, based on what I know now, he is going to get the nomination. Clinton is a formidable opponent: she has the establishment, she has the people, she has the money. And she’s learned from last time. She has matured as a politician.
raven
@Mandalay: They souvenir love him long time
groucho48
@Turgidson:
e.e.cummings and the prototypical right wing speech:
Kay
@Baud:
I don’t think so. I think he hit in a particular place at a particular time and now he just sounds like 2010. The same thing happened to Christie, IMO.
Republicans are all confused. I talked to one today who told me all the reasons he can’t vote for Kasich- Medicaid, no Right to Work, won’t defund Planned Parenthood. He’s a Trump supporter instead, which makes no fucking sense.
Thoughtful Today
?
Anyone see if Bush III got a Colbert ‘bump’?
Baud
@Kay:
I think about 10 years ago, we were at the apex of GOP power. They’ve been losing grounds (too slowly) ever since.
Omnes Omnibus
@groucho48:
Rubio?
raven
@Baud: The apex of the vortex!!!
Anoniminous
@raven:
You do realize what that says about us … :-)
Baud
@Anoniminous: I agree she’s much better this time around. But Bernie has been impressive. While I still have reservations, he’s come out of nowhere to build something substantial.
groucho48
@Omnes Omnibus:
lol
raven
@Anoniminous: It’s says I Goin Home, see my baby. .
catclub
Since it is open thread:
Big wigs in Defense are even talking about partition- type events for Syria/Western Iraq.
I was surprised when Juan Cole says he thinks the present national borders are likely to hold.
http://www.juancole.com/2015/09/syria-survive-states.html
Kurdistan as part of Iraq provides a fig leaf to dissuade Turkey from just bombing the hell out of it.
Thoughtful Today
Biden seemed to get a Colbert bump in a couple of polls.
Powerful Biden interview on both he and Colbert’s part.
Thoughtful Today
Today’s game:
Simple clues to Presidential Candidates identities.
I had three in mind earlier but can only think of two now.
Anne Laurie
@srv:
True, Bar Bush was hammering martinis while she was pregnant, but I don’t think that alone explains her kids’ notorious impulsivity and lack of forethought…
Thoughtful Today
The one I know only because Colbert mentioned him.
Baud
@Kay:
I agree. They have depended on central leadership for direction for so long, they don’t know what to do now that it has failed them so spectacularly.
Thoughtful Today
It’s.On.His.HAT!
Kay
@Anoniminous:
I went and did an event with the county Democrats Sunday and some of the young people were raving about Sanders. They really like him, even here, and it’s quite conservative here. I didn’t ask them exact ages, but one of them told me he was 20 so really young- maybe not old enough to have voted for Obama in 2012.
kdaug
@Omnes Omnibus:
THAT will be the most interesting dynamic – O’s going to be kingmaker.
I don’t see him as a Carter (selfless charity/Sunday school teacher) or Clinton (can’t resist the pull). But he’s a youngish dude who’s hit the mountaintop – what next?
Anoniminous
@Anne Laurie:
I never thought Biden would jump in.
I agree with you re: front runners. I was making the same argument in 07 … and got called a Hillary-hater. Back in 08 the Party was happy with either Clinton or Obama as the standard bearer. I’d say the same today, tho’ I have to polling to buttress my contention. The Sanders supporters I talk are to definitely for Bernie and just as definitely going to work and vote for the Democratic candidate.
SiubhanDuinne
@Thoughtful Today:
Oops.
Mandalay
@Trentrunner: There’s an interesting biography that contains some surprising stories about him:
I assume those stories are true, but they are carefully framed to inoculate Carson about people from his past coming back to haunt him during the campaign. Essentially the same as the Kim Davis spiel: the lost sinner found the Lord, and therefore has a clean slate no matter what dirt exists.
jl
@kdaug: If HRC gets the nomination, both Clinton and Obama will hit the campaign with gusto. If HRC wins and can convince Sanders she will adopt some of his policies, and especially if Sanders thinks he has built enough of a movement to make a difference in a Dem administration, and can swing Senate I can see him making an effort.
Add a little Biden, that would be a formidable campaign engine. That would be best case scenario if HRC gets nomination.
Hey, a guy can dream, right?
Anoniminous
@raven:
To me it says I’d Love to Change the World.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I wonder how his popularity n New Hampshire compares to Kelly Ayotte’s
Ruckus
@Bex:
Great!
My friend hasn’t responded yet anyway. So now I’ll quit worrying about it. I’m capable of the work, I’ve seen some and they mostly look Home Depot level. But I think it’s best to see the animal to get a better idea of it’s specific needs. Especially if it is young as they grow and mature much faster than humans. Also seems that some of them learn much faster.
jl
And Sanders’ current Senate term started in 2012, which plus 6 years equal 2018, So Sanders has an incentive to keep his movement going even if he does not get the nomination.
That is an angle on the Dem side I have not thought of before.
OK, I will put the vision out of my mind, better not get my hopes up. But, imagine Bill Clinton, Obama, Sanders and Biden pulling all the stops out for 2016. For HRC / Warren! Or some ticket as good.
Thoughtful Today
!!!
Bush intelligence failure to see a flamboyant Hollywood actor beating Prescott’s heirs’ political ascendancy?
… Twice?
Oops?
Anoniminous
@Baud:
I’m involved so I bend over backwards to (try to) remain objective. That means I’ll miss things other people see. (?)
@Kay:
That’s very encouraging. Thank you.
Now …. how can I get an Eeyore moment out of it?
(lol)
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: Warren will not be anyone’s veep selection – least of all HRC’s.
jl
@Omnes Omnibus: Too bad. I guess I am behind on the potential presidential ticket gossip.
Anoniminous
@jl:
Warren is too important in the Senate to waste her as Veep.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: this is from PPP, a google search suggests Ayotte has a slight leading most polls
Fucking Democrats. they wear ya out.
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: Okay. The two most likely candidates are Bernie and Hillary, right? If it’s Bernie, what does how does another northeastern liberal with deep concerns about our financial system bring anything new to the table? If it is Hillary, no way she picks another woman.
Plus, I think Warren is happy and useful where she is.
Thoughtful Today
…
Bush III’s PNAC signature….
‘What could go wrong’ ….
jl
@Omnes Omnibus:
” Or some ticket as good. ”
Please excuse my inadequate example of a dream ticket.
Any ticket maximizing the chances of a Dem victory is fine with me.
And I love Warren in the Senate.
If HRC gets the nomination and can get the WH and swing the Senate, I look forward to watching Sanders and Warren kick some A in the Greatest Deliberative Body in the World, or whatever the nickname is for that sinkhole of rich corrupt old toads.
Kay
@Baud:
I don’t know that people ever hated unions as much as Politico hates unions, so it’s not one of the “biggest surprises” to me but I am enjoying watching Walker and Christie tank and I guess “recovery from the recession” is as good an excuse as any for them tanking.
Thoughtful Today
Consistency of message and assurance of follow through is the answer if you’re asking this of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren:
“how does [Sanders and Warren,] another northeastern liberal with deep concerns about our financial system bring anything new to the table?”
…
Ya’all can chide me for believing that Elizabeth Warren as Vice President would strengthen all top three Democratic Presidential Candidates for both the Primary and General Election.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: I think she does more good where she than she could do as veep.
jl
@Kay:
It’s like the corporate media pundits watch Mornin’ Joe with it’s 200K or so audience (IIRC) and Fox News with slack jawed wonder and are permanently convinced that the general voting public can be swayed by GOPer pols to hate teachers, unions, teacher’s unions, PTA, Planned Parenthood, Social Security, Medicare, and now even ‘poor people’s’ programs like Medicaid because a bunch of old white farts keep saying it over and over.
Well, people with a lot of money, and the flunkies they hire hope it is so, and corporate hacks worship money and power, so I guess they just can’t help themselves.
I hope they keep being completely wrong.
And nice to see Walker, the political genius has watched the political drama unfold, think deeply about how to reinvigorate his campaign, and double down on his most unappealing extreme reactionary economic platform. Hope he keeps up the good work.
S. cerevisiae
@NobodySpecial: Salvor Hardin FTW! “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent”.
redshirt
@jl: I sincerely think one of the only ways (of 2) to save our country is to re-implement media ownership laws. As in you can only own so much of any media in any given market.
I feel like today we are fast approaching the day when there are like 3-5 companies owning 90% of all media. And they will not have our interests in mind.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@jl: I remember when the push for increasing the minimum wage revved up a couple years ago, Tweety kept talking about it as a “good, center-left issue”. The idea polled nationally at around 60, 65%, but if your political spectrum is measured by the cast of Morning Joe, it’s “center left”
Likewise, since the subject is unions, in the middle of whatever media panic that assured that Obama was doomed, can’t remember if it was before or after the 2012 election, Tweety opined that Obama needed to do something “big, like Reagan firing the air traffic controllers.” For all his affectations about still being the hard-hat, lunch bucket kid from Philly, Tweety was still wanking to a thirty year old attack on unions as a model of leaderly, bold, powerful presidentin’. Saving millions of jobs, many of them union and lunch-buckety, three years earlier… a dim memory.
Thoughtful Today
Again:
In the short run Warren would be more powerful as Senate Leader.
In the long run Warren would be more powerful as President of the Senate.
catclub
I think MSNBC showing all of the Trump campaign rally is the first evidence that it is a liberal organization that acts in a partisan manner. The same way that Cheney pushes Joe Biden to enter the race, because it has the potential to replace a stronger Democratic candidate with a weaker one (in his view. He has been wrong before.).
Giving free publicity to Trump is because MSNBC views him as the least dangerous of the major GOP candidates.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: Veep, as president of the senate, basically just casts the deciding vote in ties. Veep has very little real world power. Also, one shouldn’t presume that because someone is a closer fit for one’s ideology that the person would be an effective leader within an institution.
Mike in NC
@Kay: “public rancor against organized labor” is a 100% fabrication by the douchebags at Politico.
jl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The media pundits and dowdy news actor celebrities fraudulently pretending to be political and public policy experts seem unaware that the initial economic nose dive of the Great Recession, was worse and more rapid by most measures than the onset of the Great Depression. Far worse and more rapid, in the US and around the world.
The Obama administration was at the helm during that crisis that turned it around and that will make Obama be rated a far more significant president in the future than he is now, when evaluated by economists and historians who can do fancy egghead stuff like arithmetic.
Edit: in retrospect, people like Krugman and DeLong were not lying or exaggerating when they said they were in a panic and not sleeping at night.
If we had a GOPer running the show, we would have a worser version than European old Washington Consensus. Which would put the US worser than Europe, some of which has lost more output per capita than it did during the Great Depression since 2008 and 2009.
But, corporate media economic reporting is so horrid biased and incompetent, not sure how many consciously know this. But probably ordinary voters had more of a gut feeling about it than the very comfortably suborned media doofuses, including Matthews, and a big reason why Obama won in 2012 (besides his ability to draw poor opponents, and his political gifts).
Thoughtful Today
ymmv
Elizabeth Warren is an effective leader.
She has integrity and authenticity.
I trust her.
Mandalay
@Mike in NC:
Speaking of media fabrication, why do they love to call Bernie a “curmudgeon”? I’ve never seen him nasty, cranky or angry.
Trump is surely old enough and consistently mean enough to be called a curmudgeon, and Cruz and Christie would qualify if they were a bit older.
But somehow it’s only applied to Sanders, even though it’s not remotely true.
Mandalay
@catclub:
Biden Beats Every Potential GOPer By Larger Margin Than Hillary
I guess even Cheney can be wrong once in a blue moon.
Cervantes
@Mandalay:
Because they are ignorant as to its meaning.
The word requires a certain miserliness.
Cervantes
@Thoughtful Today:
How so?
Thoughtful Today
re: Media irritations
Gwen Ifill’s WashingtonWeek panel usually clues me into ‘journalists who will annoy me’.
Today it’s Karen Tumulty and her right-wing enabling Washington Post article on Hillary.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: FFS. Look, I liked and worked to elect Russ Feingold. I thought he was a good senator. I would not pick him for an executive post or a leadership position in the senate. It’s not his thing. WRT Warren, a committee chairmanship in one of her areas of expertise is where she would be most effective. This is not a knock on her.
redshirt
Obama saved the world, like I knew he would.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Omnes Omnibus: Is Feingold running against Johnson? and if so what do you think of his chances?
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes, he is. Given that it is a presidential year, I think he has a good shot.
RaflW
My hope for Wednesday night, though I won’t be watching, is that Trump finishes off Walker. That would make this Minnesotan quite happy — though I fear that when Walker has to suspend his campaign that he’ll head back to Wisconsin and break several things. Like maybe just finish off a few smaller U.W. campuses completely, in his anger and bitterness.
Cervantes
@Omnes Omnibus:
In Marquette’s last poll, taken about a month ago, Feingold had a five-point lead (47-42).
PurpleGirl
@Germy Shoemangler: This reminds me of a building on West 4th Street that was left empty for close to (or more than) 20 years. There had been a yarn shop and gallery on the first floor. The woman who ran the shop was murdered. The owners of the building were so upset by the event that they couldn’t bring themselves to rent the space again. I forget if any of the other three floors had had tenants. Eventually, the building was just empty. When the owners died, their children kept the building for a few years and then sold it.
ETA: I didn’t the gallery owner but I went in to see the innovative crocheted and knitted work she showed. I bought yarn there a few times.
Brachiator
@redshirt:
Media as we know it is rapidly dying and the media that many Balloon Juicers criticize and obsess over is increasingly becoming the media of old farts. Nobody under the age of 30 much cares or pays attention.
So, before we talk about re-implementing ownership laws, a few questions.
How would the law apply, if at all, to new media? Should ownership limits apply to Politico, HuffPo and other websites?
Should Internet service providers even be allowed to own media companies?
In the age of the Internets, exactly what is a given market?
Do territorial markets even matter anymore?
Thoughtful Today
Russ Feingold ended his Senate career on a very conservative voting record, iirc.
But I’d definitely review his record if he suddenly declared to run for the Presidency.
And absent a stronger progressive, I’d certainly be happy voting for him for Senate, Sheriff, or Mayor.
redshirt
@Brachiator: How about corporate owned connections that only allow their content over that connection? Think that’s far-fetched? That’s coming, my fellow sheep.
We’ re all doomed. Bleat all we want.
joel hanes
@Forked Tongue:
> > cerebral: adj intellectual rather than emotional or physical
> Is there an equivalent adjective meaning “none of the above”?
bootless
vacuous
trifling
feeble
Cervantes
@Brachiator:
The Census Bureau reported the following not too long ago:
18-24-year-olds voted at 41.2% in 2012 (from 48.5% in 2008).
65+-year-olds voted at 71.9% in 2012 (from 70.3% in 2008).
rikyrah
@Mandalay:
Bullshyt about it innoculating him. That only works if you are not trying to pull up the ladder to others. The Ben Carson of 2015 would be firmly ensconced in the school to prison pipeline. There is no room for second chances in today’s zero tolerance society.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: You are nuts. Read this.
redshirt
@Cervantes: That certainly explains the different vibe between the two campaigns.
jl
@Omnes Omnibus:
‘there is no room for second chances in today’s zero tolerance society.”
That is more optimistic than I expected from you. I think there is no room for first chances for many minority communities, and rural poor of all backgrounds today.
I tutored poor kids with a grad school classmate from West Africa. He said he regularly saw Hispanic and black kids in Los Angeles who were less hopeful about getting any kind of post HS education than boondocks village kids back in his home country. And this was over fifteen years ago, things have gotten worse here since then.
RaflW
re: Sanders
Sanders is a decent politician and a good person, but he is not nor has he ever been a gifted communicator or a smart and cooly tactical guy.
Folks like Sanders are important to the evolving ethos of a political party. I am glad he’s running and creating space for better ideas to be given consideration by Democrats (even if the media doesn’t really want to consider him).
Maybe I lack imagination, but I cannot see him being successful at winning the presidency. If he is the Democratic nominee, I think he’s toast in the general.
RaflW
FYWP – this is the second time in recent weeks that WP has just eaten my post, not put in moderation, just gone.
Can we please get that site update? Thank you!!!
Omnes Omnibus
@jl:
Quoi?
Cervantes
@RaflW:
Don’t be naïve. It will only fail faster and more efficiently.
jl
@Omnes Omnibus:
Sorry, I was trying to reply to rikyrah’s @rikyrah:,. Please forgive my fat fingered vulgarian clicko.
RaflW
@Jeffro:
They’ll hang on to her as long as possible to try and say “see, the GOP does appeal to women.” Though I don’t really see a failed corporate hack who got a platinum parachute really connecting with women voters.
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: Whew. I was confused and thought I had missed some subtext in my comment.
jl
@Cervantes: I think it is more entertaining to watch BJ blog fail slowly by bits and pieces, very gradually grinding to a halt with lots of confusion and mayhem. So, I’m not so sure if I like the upgrade thing now.
jl
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve learned to ignore all subtexts in your comments, lest I get myself in big trouble.
Omnes Omnibus
@jl: Some of my subtexts are necessary. One should know which are which. Jeez.
Mandalay
@rikyrah:
To be clear, I’m not defending Carson. I’m just explaining why I believe harmful stories about Carson were carefully inserted into an otherwise flattering biography.
redshirt
I can’t burp.
Cervantes
@redshirt:
Gesundheit.
redshirt
@Cervantes: No sorry I mean I can’t literally burp, ever.
It’s a Gypsy thing.
Thoughtful Today
Russ’s conservative record was a data driven analysis … though I don’t have it at my fingertips.
Bug me about it this week, Hopefully I have it bookmarked or can recall the source.
It was a great resource though it’s been so long I’ve Forgotten it’s name or the Prof behind it.
Oops.-(
Thoughtful Today
grr
I forgot what a PITA this website was:
http://www.voteview.com/dwnomin.htm
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: I linked his voting record. Read it. Then tell me how he is conservative.
Thoughtful Today
…
Vice Presidents are often seen as ready to be President this minute.
Senate tie breakers are important.
Vhh
@MazeDancer: There is no longer an equal time law. That change brought Fox into existenceexistence.
Thoughtful Today
Have you used the voteview.com DW-NOMINATE scores before?
I forgot the website’s navigation is from the 1980’s :(
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: Have the balls to respond to individual’s comments. I responded to yours. Show that Feingold is conservative. I know I posted an actual voting record, what do you offer in response?
@Thoughtful Today: Are you really that stupid?
Brachiator
@Cervantes:
Let’s look at this another way, looking at 2 age groups, and their proportion of the total population.
The near dead, the 65 and overs, are a smaller and shrinking group.
And again, they don’t care about the old media.
Even if you slice it smaller,
Still a larger group overall than the oldsters.
These are population shares as of July 2014. How the younger group deals with media is far more important than the dying media that older people cling to.
sukabi
@Anne Laurie: , lawdy.
He’d swing, miss Trump, break his own kneecap, and crush poor Rubio (or possibly Fiorina) when he fell over on them.
At which point Hugh Hewitt would wet himself and cry for his mommy, while Huckabee (and possibly Cruz) started talking in tongues…
not seeing the problem with that.
Thoughtful Today
I forgot the voteview.com DW-NOMINATE website’s navigation is from the 1980’s
…
… and linkrot has taken out my bookmark to the “110th Senate Rank Ordering” which is now “404 – File or directory not found.”
I’m not sure where the historical data has disappeared to.
And I suspect you wouldn’t understand the methodology used to create the “Rank Ordering” of Senators and Representatives.
Worth learning about, though.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: If you want to call Feingold a rightish Dem, give me evidence. I know what I lived and what the record I posted showed.
BTW any database about senators from the 80s won’t be helpful since Feingold was elected to the senate in 1992.
Thoughtful Today
Erm, you’re not paying attention.
Do your own homework. VoteView was a handy analysis tool that showed seem interesting results. It also showed that data analytics often misses a lot of things.
I liked Russ’s voice and usually liked his vote. That VoteView showed his later years as Senator were comparatively conservative is part of a larger political calculation that you should familiarize yourself with.
I’ll assume you’re smart enough to know what I’m talking about so I don’t have to write a long essay explaining it to you, right?
*I’m using the number “10” as an example, each Congress has different numbers of Bills to vote on each year.
Thoughtful Today
VoteView was a handy data analysis tool that showed interesting results.
It also showed that looking at only one data analytic set can miss a lot of things.
It could also reveal some interesting insights.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: Post links. I posted every vote Feingold took.
Give me your long essay. Because your statements seem to contradict my actual experience. Bring it.
Thoughtful Today
Lazy trolls that insult me don’t get to make demands
;)
Read up on VoteView.
Do some homework: ftp://voteview.com/junkord/kres99.ord
Thoughtful Today
heh
You already owe me beers for helping you do your homework ;)
I’m charging a six pack for this:
“Feingold’s votes support maverick label: Data show he breaks party line to left and right.”
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/103218149.html
Glad to help you catch up ;)
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: Okay, then fuck off. I asked reasonable questions. And offered reasonable answers.
Omnes Omnibus
@Thoughtful Today: I gave you his actually voting record. And?
Cervantes
@Thoughtful Today:
Here.
Brachiator
@redshirt:
I don’t know if it’s far fetched. But re-implementing the old media laws doesn’t address this. New media, new problems. Now the question is what might be the best solution.
Thoughtful Today
!
Cervantes Cracked the Code!
…
Cut & Paste from JSOnline
“Overall the data show that Feingold has broken with his party more often under Democratic presidents than he did under a Republican president. During much of the Obama and Clinton presidencies, the only Democrats who broke with their party more often than Feingold were more conservative Democrats from “red” states in the South and in the Plains. Feingold has been especially unusual among Northern liberals in his comparatively low party unity scores.” … “Of course, roll call votes don’t tell the whole story about a lawmaker’s record, scholars note, since they don’t reflect what issues a politician spends his time and energy on.”
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/103218149.html
Thoughtful Today
NB
The various columns of the voteview data can be rank-ordered to offer different views.
Sherparick
@Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937: If you aren’t scared at what guys like Trump, Walker, JEB!, Carly, or the rest of them would do to the country, you have not been paying attention what Dubya did in the Oughts or what Brownback, Walker, and Jindal have done to their states (for instanceexcept for the fact that it is hard to have a team in the Big 12, SEC, or Big Ten without a college/university attached, I would Brownback, Jindal and Walker would have already shut down KU, LSU, and Wisconsin and other state colleges and universities).
Sherparick
@Thoughtful Today: Ultimately I expect he would vote for justices and judges like Sotomayor, Kagan, Ginsburg, and Breyer for the Supreme Court and Federal Bench. That is enough for me. A low threshold and I wish Tammy Baldwin had a twin, but she does not.
RaflW
@Thoughtful Today: It should also be noted that WI is not what we might call a traditional liberal northern state. Witness Tommy Thompson winning 4 times, and Walker 3.
One could argue that Feingold could read his constituency.