So I may have been wrong that a Biden-in-2016 campaign was entirely a fever dream of anti-HRC Media Village Idiots. (Or maybe the MVI drumbeat convinced Joe to contemplate the idea.) I’m still not sure this is any kind of a good idea, either for the Democratic Party or for the man himself. Patricia Murphy, in the Daily Beast:
Vice President Joe Biden addressed the speculation for the first time Thursday night about whether he’ll get into the 2016 presidential race. But instead of an enthusiastic yes, or a politician’s non-answer, Biden spoke with the raw honesty of a still-grieving father.
“The most relevant fact is whether my family and I have the emotional energy to run,” Biden said, adding that he has no set timeline for himself to make a decision…
Biden said that the much-discussed mechanics of a potential presidential campaign, including fundraising, timing, and logistics, are playing no role in his decision-making process. “The factor is, ‘Can I do it? Can my family?’ The honest-to-God answer is, I just don’t know.”
After a pause, he turned to his friend and host, former ambassador Stuart Eizenstat, and said, “But I have to be honest with you and everyone who’s come to me. I can’t look you straight in the eye and say now I know I can do it.”…
Biden’s definitely enjoying the increased attention — “Look at all the press you’ve attracted,” Biden told a gathering of students and faculty. “Their interest in community college has impressed me. I hope that’s what they are going to write about!”
Bloomberg Politics says his would-be supporters claim they’re more than willing to wait as long as necessary (Biden originally “signaled” that he’d make a decision by the end of September, but the first Democratic debate isn’t until October 13, and the first primary-ballot filing deadlines come in November). He’s talked about his (potential) competition: “‘I am not a populist. But Bernie Sanders, he’s doing a helluva job,’ Biden said, puzzling at least a few donors at a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraiser in Miami… “ Everyone wants to be kind to him, right now, for good reason.
But once he actually declares himself a candidate, that’s going to change, and fast. The media’s been delighted to point out that Hillary’s extraordinary polling popularity has been dropping ever since she went from “former Secretary of State” to “current presidential candidate”. Biden would certainly face the same effect. And there are legitimate questions about why Joe Biden would be a better candidate than HRC. Rebecca Traister, at NYMag, “Is Joe Biden Getting a Gender Advantage?“:
… Just compare [HRC] to Joe Biden. Who is a centrist Democrat, older than Hillary by five years, and wholly enmeshed in the Obama administration. Biden also made appalling remarks during the 2008 race, calling Obama “the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean.” As a senator from Delaware, home of the credit-card industry, he voted for several versions of the bankruptcy bill, in a period that overlapped with the years that his son Hunter was drawing a hefty consulting fee from financial-services behemoth MBNA, a company that was regularly among the biggest donors to Biden’s political races. Hunter Biden also works on the board of a Ukrainian gas company that has lobbied Congress in its efforts to help Ukraine become energy independent.
Biden carries plenty of baggage from the 1990s, when he oversaw the Senate Judiciary Committee that treated Anita Hill as hysterical for her accusations that Clarence Thomas sexually harassed her, and did not allow other women willing to corroborate Hill, including Angela Wright, to testify. Joe Biden wrote the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act and sponsored legislation creating the disparities between crack and cocaine sentencing that disproportionately hurt poor Americans. He voted for NAFTA, for welfare reform, and to invade Iraq…
Clinton is a historic candidate who earned 18 million votes in 2008 and is by many measures the most popular figure in her party; her polling has remained close to where it has been forecast to be at this point and still shows her beating everyone. Yet many in the media are treating a 72-year-old white man who flamed out in two previous primaries (including one against her) and whose late entrance into this round would make things awkward for everyone, including his boss, as a great idea…
Speaking of the competition, IMO, one thing the current media fad for Joe Biden exposes is a certain weakness on the part of actually declared candidate Martin O’Malley. As a “perpetually rising star in Democratic politics”, O’Malley has spent many years making himself known to the rank and file of the Permanent Democratic Party machine. But when he stood up at the DNC meeting in Minneapolis to challenge the “rigged” debate calendar… it got him media attention, especially among the HRC-haters, but it doesn’t seem to have much of an impact on his polling popularity.
It feels, to me, like O’Malley is standing up before the insiders, arguing: Look at me! Unlike HRC or Bernie (or Joe), I’m young! Unlike Bernie, I’ve always been a Democrat, and a loyal one! Unlike Hillary, I have a penis Y chromosome, and can pledge that I’ve never shared either a checking account or a bed with Bill!…
And the delegates look at him, and they look at each other, and somebody in the back of the room pipes up: Hey, what about Joe? Think there’s a chance Joe can be talked into running again?…
BillinGlendaleCA
That would be the media, they just want to see some mud throwing in the D campaign. It’s just so damn boring, with only the Hillz e-mail server to keep them from falling asleep like they’re at a jeb! rally(Trump’s right about that one).
Amir Khalid
Joe Biden is looking hard at the emotional cost of a presidential run, and not feelin’ it. Joe doesn’t have the wholehearted enthusiasm he’d need. We’re already seeing from Jeb what a run looks like when the candidate’s heart isn’t in it; no friend of Joe Biden would want that for him. My prediction is that he’ll decide against it.
EconWatcher
I’m not a Hillary fan, but I have to say that Biden managed to be worse on Iraq than Hillary. He voted against HW’s intervention to oust Saddam from Kuwait, and then voted for W’s excellent adventure. Getting it exactly backwards, at least in my view.
Also, as Josh Marshall said, if you have to ask yourself publicly if you have the emotional energy to run for President, you don’t.
I’d like a real alternative to Hillary, if for no other reason than as an insurance policy in case things really go south in the pending investigations. But Biden ain’t it, I don’t think.
Betty Cracker
I like Joe Biden despite his obvious flaws and past fuck-ups as a candidate and legislator. I think he’s been a first-rate VP, and he should end his long public career on that high note.
O’Malley’s flameout has been kind of puzzling to me. Maybe Sanders stole his populist thunder?
Botsplainer
Now that you mentioned Trump, I keep hearing this refrain from white olds:
This is, for practical purposes, true. He says exactly what he thinks and is unburdened by a filter.
It is what he thinks that I find terrifying – if challenged to a duel of wits with a bag of hammers, he’d fight to a draw.
Last night I was out with some people – and comparisons were done between W and Trump. My observation was that W is a mediocrity that always failed up, but wasn’t personally evil; Trump, however, is like a free-floating id with megolamaniacal aspects. He’s genuinely dangerous in terms of his ignorance and capacity for demagoguery.
Amir Khalid
@Betty Cracker:
Could you say that O’Malley flamed out? I’m not aware that he caught fire in the first place.
Amir Khalid
@Botsplainer:
All the Donald’s done so far as a presidential candidate is talk a good fight. A blowhard like him, who spouts the prejudices that you yourself dare not is going to sound to you like a man of wisdom and courage. I think that’s what those old white people see in him.
EconWatcher
@Amir Khalid:
Christopher Caldwell–the thinking man’s wingnut, if you can swallow that description–did an interesting take on Trump. http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/what-s-deal-trump_1020773.html#!
His take is that Trump isn’t just a passing thing, and there is more method than appears. For what it’s worth.
Kay
I don’t know why he’d run other than he wants to because he doesn’t offer anything unique as compared to Clinton but I think primaries are generally good for turnout so I don’t think it’s a BAD idea. He will get dinged though as far as legacy because they will go after him so if that’s the concern he should stay out.
He has a brother, Frank, who is in my opinion sketchy and a bit of a grifter so that will come out too.
The bankruptcy reform is indefensible. I don’t know what he does with that. At the time I was convinced lenders knew the economy was a house a cards, built on consumer debt, and scaling back bankruptcy was an attempt to cover their asses in a crash they knew was coming which absolutely enraged me.
The debate was gross too- just a pack of lies about how they were protecting small business from deadbeats – I don’t know if people remember it but it had this scolding sanctimonious tone that was unbearable. They were going to discipline borrowers- same tone they use now for “entitlement reform”
Botsplainer
@EconWatcher:
Trump was the inevitable product of thirty years of propaganda being spewed through the puke funnel. If it wasn’t him, it would be someone like him.
Botsplainer
@Kay:
Yeah, BAPCA hurt a lot of innocent people.
satby
I really like Joe Biden, the man and VP. But I don’t want him to run, for all the reasons noted above. I never would have voted for him before and I wouldn’t now. He should exit public life on the high note of successful VP in an incredible administration.
And O’Malley isn’t even popular in his home state. He’s the Democratic party Walker, a guy people suggest might win the Presidential election when he wouldn’t win another election as governor.
magurakurin
Joe shouldn’t run. Simple as that. And I’m thinking that the Clinton Juggernaut is about start rolling for real very soon. I think a lot of Sander’s gains over the summer are going to start to fade once the campaign truly begins. Some folks like to say that Clinton has no strategy, but I think that is completely wrong. I think she has a well thought out plan and she is sticking to it. Like other people have mentioned before, Obama never played the “win the day” game with the media and the polls and stuck to his long game strategy both as a candidate and as President. Clinton is doing the same. I don’t think she will ever go negative on Sanders, but the Hammer of Thor is about to come down nonetheless. The Berniacs like to downplay the importance of money and they layer disdain on Clinton for raising it and having it personally. But reality is what it is.
Betty Cracker
@Amir Khalid: Good point.
@magurakurin: Regarding the importance of money and long game, do you think a similar dynamic will play out with Jeb and Trump?
Cervantes
@magurakurin:
While arguing that it plays too big a role in our politics?
OzarkHillbilly
Joe’s not going to do it. At this point in the process, you need a solid ground game already in place and he doesn’t. Not being able to get your name on a ballot or 2 for lack of signatures does not look very presidential. And that would be a very real possibility.
@Kay:
Moral hazard for thee but not for me. How many times did we hear about how home buyers took out irresponsible loans with nary a glance cast at the people who were pushing those loans upon them? Millions of average schmucks didn’t just decide en masse to lie on their loan aps on the off chance they could get away with it. I know I was honest on my loan ap for my truck.
“We’ll just ‘fudge’ it a little and say you’ve been with this company 3 years.”
As a gypsy carpenter I hadn’t been with a single company for much more than a year almost my entire working life. So I just thought, “Well, I won’t have any trouble making the payments, so who cares?” And 5 minutes later my loan was approved. Yeah, they really checked my work history. The only thing they checked was my credit score.
Betty Cracker
Krugman has a great column today about how Trump’s heresy on supply side and Citizens United has exposed the GOP.
Keith G
LOL, so you are bravely asserting, “Mistakes were made, maybe”. Did you work work for Nixon many years back?
My hope is that what is happening in the Biden camp is strategic positioning, IOW creating a “just in case” insurance policy.
Several years ago, HRC made a bad call in re the way she handled emails. It does not matter whose efforts are keeping the story alive, the story is alive and HRC’s campaign seems the worse for it.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that this is a bump that will be survived and HRC will roll on. I agree.
But what if that is not the case. HRC is not known for her charisma or other PR talents that can easily divert or shake off bad stories. In fact maybe the the opposite is the case. She actually has an undesired skill at making things a bit worse before the story cycle gets better.
I would not be surprised of there are folks around Joe, even folks who believe that HRC will most likely shake all this off, who are suggesting that our Vice President not make a definitive statement on this until the October hearing when HRC gets to face off against Rep Gowdy.
David Koch
It’s really weird how Hillary’s feminist supporters have been attacking a possible Biden candidacy as sexism.
Kalli Joy Gray, Digby, Joan Walsh, and the worst one is Rebecca Traister
Isn’t Bernie Sanders male?
Why do they feel so threaten by Biden that the smear of sexism is made of Joe but not of Sanders?
Is Hillary’s candidacy that weak and frail?
Pathetic.
Robert Sneddon
@Betty Cracker: Right now the Paddy Power online betting site is offering better odds for JEB! being the Republican Party’s nominee for President than for Trump, although the odds have shortened somehwat over the past couple of weeks. The bet only pays off on Sunday 24th April 2016, 22:00, over six months from now when the nomination will have been decided.
JEB! has a well-tested family machine behind him that put his father and his brother INTO the White House for three terms (five if you count GHW Bush’s two terms as VP), not just got them selected as the party’s choice. Trump has a bunch of first-timers and out-and-out grifters running something that looks like a campaign if you squint real hard. If you want to know the future, look back at Kerry vs. Dean in 2004.
The Raven on the Hill
“Joe Biden wrote the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act and sponsored legislation creating the disparities between crack and cocaine sentencing that disproportionately hurt poor Americans.”
That’s a racist law that is still being used to incarcerate vast numbers of blacks while letting whites off for similar crimes. #blacklivesmatter
I don’t think Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. The nominating process is stacked against outsiders. (superdelegates!) But purely on electability, he actually looks pretty good.
I also don’t think Sanders can pull the Democratic leadership to the left as a Democratic outsider – there is too much money keeping the party financial industry (bank and insurance firm), too much money keeping it worker unfriendly. That will act as a brake.
I still hope the Republican Party self-destructs in 2016, leaving an opening for a new party to move in on the left.
David Koch
Let me add, Joe Biden is the author of the Violence Against Women Act and saved Roe v. Wade by sinking Robert Bork.
Anyone hinting or outright accusing him of being sexist for daring to think about running for President is a crack pot.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I’m surprised about O’Malley also. I like him and was fully prepared to consider him, but he’s not getting any traction for some reason. Maybe the debates will get him the exposure he needs.
Keith G
@Robert Sneddon:
It seems likely to me that at a key moment the tenor of the press coverage will change and the narrative will be about the resurgence of the honorable man from an honorable family who has been tested, remained steadfast, and now like a modern-day (fill hero of choice) is rising up to rescue his party.
I know that reads as very cynical and even if this transpires it may not be enough to put Jeb over the top, but I will not be shocked when this happens.
The Raven on the Hill
@David Koch: But when it came to the crunch Biden defended the sexual harasser Clarence Thomas. Does anyone here not believe Anita Hill any more?
David Koch
@The Raven on the Hill: you’re aware the Sanders voted for Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act
there’s a proverb about specks and logs that would be appropriate about now.
Keith G
@Baud:
The times I have seen him in action, he reminded me a bit of Dukakais.
Here is a good man who otherwise should be a strong presence on the national stage, but there seems to be a piece of chemistry gone awry.
Betty Cracker
@David Koch: It’s because Biden has the exact same deficits as a candidate that Hillary Clinton allegedly has, and yet he’s being talked up by some as a potential Democratic Party rescuer from the supposed disaster of an HRC nomination. Sanders is a man, but he’s a very different kind of politician than Biden or Clinton. BTW, your description of HRC’s campaign as “weak and frail” is, well, interesting, especially in light of the fact that Clinton herself and her campaign people have been positive about Biden.
David Koch
@The Raven on the Hill: what are you babbling about, he voted against Thomas
Baud
@Keith G:
Maybe it’s as simple as that.
Zinsky
I thought, three months ago, that Hillary Clinton would be our next president, irrespective of who the Republicans ran. Now, I am not so sure. I think she has been badly damaged and Biden is so iffy, I don’t know. November of 2016 is shaping to be a very scary mont!
OzarkHillbilly
@David Koch:
Simple, like it or not a not inconsiderable slice of the Democratic party is still sexist (just as a not inconsiderable slice of the Democratic party is still racist). Those folks, rightly or not see a Joe Biden who feeds the same demographic as she and cutting into her primary edge over Bernie.
It is not that Hillary’s candidacy is so weak and frail, it’s that this Politics 101.
Baud
@Zinsky:
I never thought it would be easy. Always knew the Village would come after her with both barrels.
David Koch
@Betty Cracker:
He’s being talked up as a savior by some not because he’s male but because of his status as vice president and because no one does panic at the sight of a bump in the road like democrats.
remember the hysteria and panic that set in after the first mittens-obama debate. This is par for the course, not sexism.
low-tech cyclist
The whole Biden thing is silly. He’ll look good until he actually enters the race and people start asking him hard questions about everything from the bankruptcy bill to Iraq.
And in the unlikely event that he survived Dem criticisms and had a chance to win the nomination, the right-wing puke funnel would open up on him as well, with the MSM merrily playing along.
Hillary will do just fine, once she’s one-on-one with the GOP nominee. The main thing she could do to help herself now would be to come out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Because Trump’s against trade deals generally (I don’t know if he’s taken a stand on the TPP specifically), her taking that stand is the sort of thing that could elevate the issue on the GOP side as well. Would be fun to see the fault line as 16 GOP candidates supported the TPP because of the combination of big GOP money on one side, and Hiiilllaaarrry!! on the other, while Trump joined Hillary in opposing it.
The idea is to give the Trump supporters a ‘hey wait, who’s really on our side here?’ moment, so that they start asking themselves whether a non-Trump GOP nominee would actually be better for them than Hillary. They probably wouldn’t vote for her, but they might be more inclined to not vote at all, and that’s worth something.
The Raven on the Hill
@David Koch: Not aware, but not surprised. That’s the Senate – decent people have to vote for awful bills to get anything done. Biden wrote the damn thing, though, and while it has some good parts, it has many awful ones and racist ones.
The Raven on the Hill
@David Koch: The final Senate vote is often the least important thing in political maneuvering on a topic in the Senate. Biden was chairing the Judiciary committee and kept other women from testifying in support of Hill. He also allowed the committees Republicans to tar Thomas critics as racist.
I wonder how many other bad justices slipped by on his watch.
David Koch
@Betty Cracker:
means nothing to me, as I’m not supporting Biden and as I’ve defended Hillary on numerous occasions.
BillinGlendaleCA
Not really, he just thinks that he or the ‘killers’ he hires to negotiate any trade deals will be better than the hapless Obama and Kerry.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
The T in TPP stands for Trump.
Betty Cracker
@David Koch: It isn’t all about sexism, but to dismiss the possibility that sexism could play a role at all is to reveal your own cluelessness. Kalli Joy Gray, Digby, Joan Walsh and Rebecca Traister ain’t wrong on this. You are.
magurakurin
@Cervantes:
Yes, often in the same comment string. But it’s internet stuff, not really the real world, I guess. I think Sanders knows how important money is and how corrupting it is, too. That’s why he is trying to run a successful campaign largely without it. And he is succeeding to some extent. That is why some of his supporters are starting to suggest that maybe money isn’t all that important. I don’t really agree. It’ll matter a lot in the general.
Jeffro
@Amir Khalid: For the longest time, I didn’t think Biden would run. Then in the past two weeks, I have been thinking he will. Silly me, listening to this kind of Village stuff. HRC has way too much money and way too many endorsements locked up. I’m sure Joe will “signal” that he’s ready to be the Dem nominee should something cause Hillary to have to withdraw from the race…but I agree with you, I don’t think he’s going to run.
Ian
@EconWatcher:
The first one was as illegal as the second. HW just gets credit for getting the hell out when he was done. Any believers that the US had the legitimaticy to undertake Gulf 1 should look at our own invasion of Panama weeks before.
Betty Cracker
@low-tech cyclist: I like your thinking on the trade issue. It would not only be the right thing to do for a Democratic nominee, it would underscore how Trump is exposing the space between the GOP base and the Republican candidates’ water carrying for the donor class. That can only be a good thing.
magurakurin
@Betty Cracker: I guess it depends on how much of his own money Trump is willing to spend and how deep the pockets are of his friends. There probably is more money available in general for the GOP candidates than for the Dems. So, Jeb?’s advantage might not be as great as Hillary’s probably is over Sanders in regard to money.
MattF
Note the headline on this WaPo ‘story’. Hey, let’s you and him fight! We need a narrative here about feuding Democrats to prove that both sides do it! Bah.
The Raven on the Hill
@magurakurin: I’ve seen big money campaigns go down to populist appeals in state-level initiative conflicts, but much less often when there’s a candidate at the head, even a cipher like Scott Walker or Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Raven on the Hill
@Betty Cracker: HRC is not going to come out against big money’s policy. She’s just not going to do it, any more than Obama did.
JGabriel
Anne Laurie @ Top:
Thanks, Anne. That gave me a good laugh to start off the day.
Robert Sneddon
@Ian: Gulf War 1 in 1992 was a UN operation, the US was only a part of it. It was legal as in the UN had said that Saddam’s cross-border invasion of Kuwait was not to be tolerated and it authorised the military efforts to expel Saddam from Kuwait.
After Saddam’s military had been pushed back over the border, that was “Mission Accomplished” as far as the UN mandate was concerned. The grandiose talk about pushing on to Baghdad and “finishing the job” would have been illegal and probably only carried out by the US forces on the ground at the time as the other nations were operating under the UN mandate. GHW was aware of this and smart enough not to get embroiled in the morass of conquering and occupying a country in the Middle East that his idiot son got talked into by the neocon cake-walkers twenty years later.
EconWatcher
@Ian:
Not sure what you mean by Gulf War I being just as “illegal”–there was pretty clear authorization from the UN Security Council, unlike Gulf War II. You may have some beef with this, but “just as illegal” as Gulf War II is a pretty bold statement.
And there are obviously enormous other differences between Gulf Wars I and II. There was a genuine and very broad international coaltion in favor of Gulf War I, not a bribed and coerced “coalition of the willing,” and they were willing to front so much of the bill that, by some accounts, the US actually made money on the deal. Also, if you look at a map of the Persian Gulf, you can see that having Saddam control Kuwait (as well as its oil) gave him a potential chokehold on the Gulf and the world economy, which doesn’t sound like a good idea.
The one thing that always bothered me about Gulf War I is that HW’s administration seemed to have sent, to put it charitably, mixed signals to Saddam before he invaded Kuwait, through April Glaspie. But once he was in there, you’re arguing against a pretty massive consensus of world opinion at the time if you say we didn’t need to get him out.
OzarkHillbilly
@Ian: “On 29 November 1990, the Security Council passed Resolution 678 which gave Iraq until 15 January 1991 to withdraw from Kuwait and empowered states to use “all necessary means” to force Iraq out of Kuwait after the deadline.”
from the Gulf War
EconWatcher
By the way, is it just me, or isn’t the perfectly obvious ticket Kasich-Rubio for the Republicans? That would give them the best chance to take both Ohio and Florida, and with them, the election, and both of these guys have at least the appearance of cenrist appeal. Rubio is too callow to top the ticket, but for VP seems about right, from an electoral perspective.
Now, how you get there through the knuckle-dragging nomination process, I don’t know. But this seems their obvious best play.
Betty Cracker
@The Raven on the Hill: We’ll see — I’m not as sure as you are that she won’t. She’s made noises about opposing it (expressing “concerns,” at any rate), and that’s one of the reasons I’m glad Sanders is in the race — to pull her leftward. In any case, I think it would be the smart move.
@EconWatcher: I agree that would be their most formidable ticket, though I think HRC-Whomever would beat Kasich-Rubio like a rented mule in FL.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Baud: It’s still very, very early. I assume he’ll get a bump once he gets some actual, relatively unfiltered, national exposure on the same stage with Hillary. Similarly with Bernie, to a smaller extent. But I expect Hillary to eventually win it.
What I don’t understand is why so many seem happy to have Hillary effectively crush any potential opponent before any votes are cast, before any debates, while the country isn’t really paying attention. Are we so desperate to have our favorite pundit be right that we can’t let things actually happen? We’re so afraid that she’s got a glass jaw that we don’t want her to actually compete for the nomination?
I like a lot about O’Malley, even with his baggage. I think a lot of the criticism of him is shallow (not that the issues are raised aren’t important, but that it doesn’t consider his rebuttals). I expect him to be Hillary’s VP the way things are going (if not him, who? Isn’t it often someone who is willing to actually fight for the nomination?).
I’ve posted a link to an excerpt of this before, but here is the full C-Span link (58:16) where he debates McDonnell (mainly on Jobs and the Economy) when they were both Chairs of their respective Governors’s Associations in 2012. (McDonnell is now fighting to stay out of prison during his last-ditch appeal of his conviction.)
O’Malley would be a good (but flawed – like all of them) candidate.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
MattF
@EconWatcher: I agree that Kasich is the only actually-arguably-Presidential candidate on the R side, although maybe Fiorina would get some attention as VP with a ‘Hey, we like girls too!’ message.
Frank Bolton
@low-tech cyclist:
The problem is whether people on the Democratic Party side feel the same way, just in reverse. What’s more, I’m willing to bet that there are more Democratics who would be swayed by Trump’s blend of white aggrievement and populist economics than Republicans who would stay their vote due to the inflicted insight.
There’s a real chance that if it’s Hillary vs. Trump and Hillary isn’t able to shake off the aura of ‘in the pocket of establishment types that screwed us’, the Democratic Party loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and perhaps even Michigan.
debbie
@Botsplainer:
Perhaps not in comparison to Trump, but I’d argue that W’s belief as a Christian that he was fulfilling God’s will led to plenty of evil.
Frank Bolton
O’Malley is never going to catch fire. He might have had a chance before the Baltimore riots, but now he’s faced with the impossible stumbling blocks of ‘A.) like Sanders, he needs to build his base from politically informed white progressives who place a high value on purity’ and ‘B.) if you don’t have the support of African-Americans, which he won’t get after the riots, you need to completely run the table on whites and Latinos’.
I think that it’s unfair and short-sighted, because every Democrat that was in his position (and I include Sanders) would’ve pushed the same racist and clueless anti-crime policies he did — O’Malley just had the misfortune of holding the bag. Not that I don’t feel that he doesn’t deserve the opprobrium from his tenure, because he does, I just find it disingenuous that other Democrats — especially the centrists like Hillary Clinton — get to escape the blame for the conditions that led to the riots.
debbie
@EconWatcher:
I think the time’s past when a candidate could count on carrying their home state.
EconWatcher
@Botsplainer:
When assessing whether W is a decent human being, never forget Tucker Carlson’s account of how Bush mimicked Karla Faye Tucker’s voice as she pleaded for clemency before her execution. “Please, please don’t kill me,” Bush said, with his face clenched in mock pleading, imitating a woman’s voice.
This shocked the conscience of Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson.
amk
What with a buncha kkklowns on their side, the wingnutz seem to be happy that their ‘bench is deep’.
And yet the left is freaking out over what, 4 or 5 candies?
Keith G
I still am not sure how Trump! survives what will be sure to become an onslaught of Bush Inc generated, Atwater inspired, go-for-the-nuts attack messaging.
Thoughtful Today
…
Biden was seen by many as more liberal than either Clinton or Obama during 2007-8, most Dems consider him ready to be President this minute, and he has a tremendous amount of establishment support.
Sooo…
His detractors are attacking him as not being liberal enough, suggesting this is an emotional decision for him, and by pointing to establishment support of Clinton (Superdelegates and Big Money).
Most of these detractors never mention who the most liberal, emotionally charging, anti-establishment, anti-big-money candidate is…
“Bernie Sanders has jumped out to a 9-point lead over front-runner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire…”.
MattF
@Botsplainer: Well, don’t forget that W hired a slew of evil people. You can’t maintain that that was just a series of unfortunate accidents.
EconWatcher
@debbie:
True, it isn’t automatic, but Kasich is something like 60% approval in Ohio. Kay would be the expert on this, but I bet he’d win Ohio. I of course defer to Betty on Florida.
Tommy
@EconWatcher: One of my clients is in Ohio. Raging liberal so he isn’t a fan, but his approval rating is such some Democrats have to support him.
Keith G
@EconWatcher: Yeah, I guess there is a dignity of office behavior code that might have been violated by that jest, but Karla Faye Tucker was a beast who (given the fact that the death penalty was in place) deserved her eventual fate.
Some humans by dint of their actions do not deserve any respectful consideration. Tucker is among that crew.
David Fud
@EconWatcher: I found that analysis interesting but the conclusions flawed. That is worth something as a starting point. As odd as it sounds, I am thinking there are parallels between Trump and President Jackson.
debbie
@EconWatcher:
The 60% was the result of a practically nonexistent Democratic candidate. According to Wikipedia, the 2010 results were Kasich 49% and Strickland 47%. Previous results here:
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2013/08/ohio_gubernatorial_election_re_1.html
Thoughtful Today
I’ve never understood Kasich’s support. Granted, he’s a slicker Con than the average Republican and the media love him, but still….
Schlemazel
@debbie:
We know from first person accounts that W tortured animals as a boy and fellow students while in college. We also know he was heartless in a sick and twisted way (see The Karla Fay story for example) If that is not personally evil it is close enough to it that I see no space.
Frank Bolton
@Keith G: He survives it by continuing to push economically populist jingoism. You know, just like he survived the Fox News debate takedown, his ‘blood coming out of whatever’ gaffe, and attacking the VSP’s golden boy McCain.
Why would an onslaught of attack ads change that? Yes, the GOP establishment might be able to paint Trump as an overweening buffoon, but the GOP base would rather have an overweening buffoon that promised to protect their interests than some establishment squish. Maybe I’m wrong and the GOP establishment might be able to overwhelm Trump with the weight of sheer demography, but right now it looks like the crazies and the crazy candidates (Cruz, Trump, Carson) form the majority.
OzarkHillbilly
@Keith G:
That eventual fate awaits us all.
Josie
@EconWatcher: You are so right. I remember reading Carlson’s article and being blown away by this. It revealed a streak of mean a mile wide in George.
Princess
@David Koch: You’re right. Hillary’s campaign is weak and frail. It is also shy, and a little bit pink. Except when it is bitchy and cold. How dare anyone accuse someone of sexism for pointing this out.
JPL
@Thoughtful Today: Most of the candidates are bat shit insane, so Kasich appears moderate. IMO
pamelabrown53
@Thoughtful Today: #65
“Most of these detractors never mention who the most liberal, emotionally charging, anti-establishment, anti-big money candidate…”
For me, Bernie isn’t the most liberal i areas I care about such as gun control. Plus he has a mixed record at best on immigration, GITMO, and Israel. Seem to remember he voted for the most odious, racist crime bill.
Still, there is no candidate that is perfect and my biggest concern about Bernie is he has not been vetted. If he were to win the dem nomination, the vetting would begin in a New York minute to the tune of upwards of a couple of billion $$$ with no money to fight back.
Keith G
@OzarkHillbilly: Strapped to a gurney with some under-qualified bubba push some bath-tub-concocted fatal dose of medication into my body?
I am hoping I avoid that.
I am aiming for a coronary event while watching a college football game (in a few decades).
EconWatcher
@Keith G:
I agree that, if you’re going to have a death penalty, Karla Faye Tucker was not a very compelling candidate for clemency, which seemed to ride mostly on her being a pretty white lady. But I’m sorry, unless we’re talking Hitler or Osama Bin Laden, openly mocking someone before her execution is disgusting and monstrous.
Schlemazel
@Keith G:
The power to kill another human is not something a person should ever take lightly or happily. In some cases death may be warranted perhaps but it should not bring joy to the people performing the act. W’s actions spoke of a juvenile personality at best and sociopathy at worst.
Jparente
@OzarkHillbilly: Thanks for bringing up the slick talkers who sold us on borrowing more that we could afford. Responsibility goes 2 ways here. I’m paying the price for these practices, now.
Keith G
@Josie:
Ms Tucker planted a pickaxe into the heart (after a few near misses) of a woman whose only insult to her was to have witnessed the immediately previous murder (by hammer) of some dude she was sharing space with.
The dude, making blood-filled gurgling sounds as he was dying, annoyed Ms Tucker so much that she struck him with the a fore mentioned pickaxe.
Now, that is a friggin mean streak.
Schlemazel
Just read that the Reverend Mike Huckabee is planning on visiting his favorite county clerk in jail this week. He really is a one trick pony isn’t he? It’s nice he can keep a wedge in between the GOP and America’s Taliban but he can’t imagine this is a path to the White House unless he really expects an honest to pasta miracle
Cervantes
@EconWatcher:
I agree.
@Schlemazel:
I oppose the death penalty; but other than that I agree.
@Josie:
Yes.
OzarkHillbilly
@Keith G:
As do I. It is basically the way my mother was dying until I asked her if she was ready to die. 24 hrs later she said, “Let’s go home.” My old man died years later a mere shell of the man he had been, hollowed out by Alzheimers.
We all have a choice in how we die, but rarely do we pick it. None of us have a choice on the eventuality of it tho.
Betty Cracker
@Schlemazel:
Exactly right. And he called himself a Christian all the while.
Cervantes
@Keith G:
If that’s your calculus, here’s a simple question: who was responsible for more murder and misery, Bush or Tucker?
EconWatcher
@Schlemazel:
Did y’all know Kim Davis is on her fourth marriage? Being raised Catholic, I could not in good conscience have given her that fourth marriage license, because of God’s clear law on divorce and remarriage.
(OK, OK, I’m an atheist. But to quote from “She’s the One,” that doesn’t mean I stopped being a good Catholic.)
Schlemazel
@Keith G:
Does not change my point even a little.
Josie
@Keith G: I am well aware of what she did and, if I were to ever be in favor of the death penalty, she would be a good candidate. Her crime, however, does not excuse GW’s reaction. See Schlemazel’s comment at #82, which says it better than I could.
OzarkHillbilly
@Keith G: A buddy of mine got an axe in the chest. Fortunately it was the blunt end of it.
Cervantes
@pamelabrown53:
Of the candidates real or potential, whose position and record on gun control do you like?
Schlemazel
@Cervantes:
I also oppose the death penalty but feel like there are more people who think it is necessary. My hope is for a transition to it being very rare, very specific and heavily reviewed to eliminate mistakes. That’s not perfect but it should be politically possible.
OzarkHillbilly
@Jparente: Why A Bank Was Allowed To Plunder Family Heirlooms That Escaped The Nazis
It’s the Golden Rule: The man with the gold writes the rules.
Thoughtful Today
Bernie’s D- from the NRA isn’t liberal enough for some, true.
Ironically, Hillary supporters attacking Bernie as somehow ‘pro-gun’ helps him in a General Election.
I know Dems who have guns that vote in Primaries as well.
OzarkHillbilly
@Schlemazel: Don’t hold your breath but don’t give up hope either. If they can outlaw the Death penalty in crimson red Nebraska, a day may come when even Texas decides their taxpayer dollars are better spent elsewhere.
Keith G
@Cervantes: Or Harry Truman? Or LBJ/Nixon? Or, Or…..
Look, I get your cutesy debating point.
I am not nominating Shrub, whom I dislike, for person of the year, but as I recall, we do have a person in office right now who has/had the power to begin an inquest into the criminality of GWB and his team of evil doers. If that is such a question, shouldn’t our current POTUS pursue such a monstrous moral outrage no matter the consequences?
Yeah, probably just another cutesy rhetorical point.
Gotta go to my hospice gig in a bit, so I don’t want to begin this rabbit hole…..
Edit: That is to say….I need to get my mind to a happier place before I walk out of my door.
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: How sad.
EconWatcher
@OzarkHillbilly:
Support for the death penalty is a mile wide but an inch deep. It’s been evaporating for a while now. If crime rates stay low, we’ll get there.
Patrick
@pamelabrown53:
To be fair, so do most Democrats. For example, when Obama tried to close gitmo, just about every Dem opposed it.
Frank Bolton
@Keith G:
Not if it leads to or enables more evil, which I think it would. Aside from the fact that the VSP would immediately render such efforts a wholly partisan effort, the American people would not appreciate the outcome of this effort. It’d be an easy task for any conservative warhawk to touch the raw nerve of American exceptionalism that would be exposed after prosecuting GWB’s team for war crimes — whereupon Joe Sixpack and his dumbass friends vote in a new set of warhawks that promised to punish those awful, horrid liberals for the unforgivable crime of making them have a sad about America’s morals.
You know, sort of like what happened in the transition between Carter and Reagan. There’s no upshot to punishing the Bush Jr. administration for the damage they did to America’s foreign policy, because the ultimate judges remain the American People. And they by-and-large didn’t have a problem with the hundreds of thousands of brown people needlessly dying in the name of soothing their tribalist neuroses — what made them turn against the Iraq war was that that the long news cycle and American soldier body count and high price tag wasn’t giving them stiffies any more.
Amir Khalid
@EconWatcher:
I have to say, I saw nothing in the Caldwell piece that challenged my own take on Trump. The Donald is running on pure bullshit. Caldwell praises his oratory, but admits that it’s mostly content-free bluster. In the one policy area where the D has been specific, immigration, Caldwell acknowledges that he talks nonsense.
It’s kind of worrying that so many admire for his lack of bullshit a man like Trump, who is all bullshit.
bemused
@EconWatcher:
I don’t think the Bush family has an awareness of evil as other people may define it. GW used the word evildoers often but I never felt it had any real meaning to him. It was simply a useful political tool to get his war on to show up poppy Bush.
There are so many examples of Bush family members’ remarks showing how oblivious they are of human suffering.
@debbie:
GW’s “Christianity” and “compassionate” conservatism were huge factors in gaining the presidency. Cynical me thinks that religion was an extremely convenient tool to fulfill the Bush family dynasty goals. When a family believes they are following their destiny, why would they worry their beautiful minds about any possible evil consequences.
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
Money probably will be the deciding factor not morality. The fact that 9 of 11 reviewed cases in Illinois proved that the convicted didn’t commit the crime holds no value to some people. I understand some sick fucks being OK with the wrong person being put to death but don’t understand how they can miss that it means the actual criminal is still loose. People are weird
OzarkHillbilly
@Patrick: NIMBY is a bi-partisan sentiment.
@Frank Bolton: If the Hague won’t take it up….
Cervantes
@EconWatcher:
It’s not even a mile wide any more. In a 2015 Quinnipiac national poll asking about the death penalty for murder, 48% were opposed while 43% supported it. (Support increased to 58% when the conviction involved terrorism.)
Possibly significant: Obama is close to switching his position on the matter — although if he does announce a switch, it may not be until after he leaves office.
Patrick
@OzarkHillbilly:
Sad but true…The vote was 90-6 in the senate. It made me proud of Obama, but ashamed of the Dems in the senate.
Cervantes
@Keith G:
No, you missed the point entirely.
Of course.
Glidwrith
@Betty Cracker: My favorite ticket would be HRC-Castro, as in one of the Casto twin brothers from Texas. You would get youth like Obama, demographics of both women and Hispanic to continue the excitement of breaking glass ceilings, a VP that could run at the four year or eight year mark and maybe get more of the Hispanic population to exercise their franchise and vote. In short, my dream ticket.
ETA: and I forgot, Texas just might go blue for him.
Schlemazel
@Patrick:
Political cowardice is never pretty but it does seem to be a theme for too many Dems
Amir Khalid
Meanwhile, another Democrat has entered the presidential race : Prof Lawrence Lessig of Harvard Law School. There’s this to be said for the Democrats: they get a better class of fringe candidate than the other party.
Keith G
@Cervantes: Help me focus on the point that you wanted me to consider (if you have the inclination)…and I will.
But my response might be a few hours form now. I will check back.
Frank Bolton
@Amir Khalid: It’s been my experience that the people who claim that they like it when people ‘tell it like it is’ are by-and-large (unknowingly) lying their ass off. You just need to push the right buttons to reveal their hypocrisy.
@Schlemazel: People like that aren’t upset about the damage that is done to the victim(s), what they’re upset about is the perceived damage done to their cultural memeplex. Yes, the actual criminal is still off scot-free but it’s of no importance, because through the use of sympathetic magic/human sacrifice the honor of their culture has been restored. And if the criminal happens to offend again, well, there are plenty of other human sacrifices.
Schlemazel
@Amir Khalid:
Given his statement the he would resign and give the potus to his VP if he accomplishes his goals he should name Dump as his VP. Not only would it get him a lot of support it would make sure Dump never is President
EriktheRed
Sure, I can totally see the Democrats blowing what should be a great advantage next election with more infighting.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone :)
MattF
Krugman points out the gap between Republican reverse-Robin-Hood policies and The Donald.
rikyrah
LOL
THINGS YOUR BITCH ASS BETTER NOT DO AT A LABOR DAY COOKOUT
Damon Young, 9/3/15
Labor Day is almost here. Which means the summer is officially over. Which sucks. Because it felt like we had three weeks of summer this year. Like, you remember how it took Meek Mill an entire month to write and release a wack diss track for Drake? That’s how long summer felt. The span of a Meek Mill studio session.
Fortunately, Labor Day allows us to end on a high note with the end-of-summer Labor Day weekend cookouts. But, before the weekend hits, there are some things that need to be addressed. Some things your bitch ass better not do at a Labor Day cookout. Which are different than Memorial Day and 4th of July cookouts, because everyone knows that the summer ends when the cookout ends, so people are already a tad bit on edge. Tread lightly.
1. Make a to-go-plate before anyone else even ate
Ok, fine. Your bitch-ass drove all the way to the cookout but has to leave after like 15 minutes to go watch The Strain. Cool. Be a weirdo. But, guess who aint leaving with a to-go plate? That’s right. You motherfucker.
2. Make like a thousand to-go plates for people who didn’t show up
If you’re making these obnoxious-ass to-go plates for a homeless shelter or your invalid and/or elderly relatives, fine. Aunt Gracie likes beef ribs and baked beans too. But if people are able to walk and shit and just aint decide to show up, you can take pictures of the food and Snapchat them shits because that’s all they’re going to see.
3. Hover around the food
The meat will be done when the meat is done. Go play spades or mingle or throw lotion-filled water balloons at your ashy-ass kids or something and get the hell away from the grill.
http://verysmartbrothas.com/things-your-bitch-ass-better-not-do-at-a-labor-day-cookout/
Schlemazel
@MattF:
Betty beat you to it by about 100 comments. Good column though, it deserves wide distribution
MattF
@Schlemazel: I had a vague feeling that someone had already posted the link, but WTH.
Cervantes
Just FYI: That was at a private home in Coral Gables. Most of the guests were supporters of Ms. Clinton. The host — a real-estate tycoon, an active Democrat, and a supporter of Jewish causes — supports the president on the Iran deal.
Schlemazel
@MattF:
Sorry I didn’t mean to sound like I was complaining
rikyrah
Serious question: why aren’t we -the USA-taking in some Syrian refugees?
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Frank Bolton:
Ooh. Nice turn of a phrase.
You make a good point, but I think most people who support the death penalty go into denial of various kinds when confronted with the fact that many innocent people are on death-row.
– Well, that’s another state. It doesn’t happen here.
– Well, maybe he was innocent of this things, but he was obviously guilty of this other thing or the police wouldn’t have arrested and charged him.
– Well, anyone can get off on a technicality. Fancy-pants lawyers can find problems with any case given 20 years of appeals. He was guilty.
– Just like the Bible says the Sun stood still and the Moon stopped, I believe it. I don’t care what the critics and the fancy lawyers say. He was guilty.
Etc.
If you think that the system doesn’t make mistakes, or that there are reasons why the mistakes are rare or not important, then you don’t have to think about the greater problem of the “real killers” still being on the street or an innocent person being punished or put to death. So that part of the cultural memeplex survives another day.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cervantes
@Amir Khalid:
On the other hand, you’ve probably seen it before.
Betty Cracker
@rikyrah: We have an occasional cookout / holiday dinner guest who does the to-go plate thing. It’s okay if everyone else has already eaten and there is PLENTY of food left over, with PLENTY defined as excess in a quantity that enables removal of to-go plate food and still leaves enough for the host family to have a complete second meal. But yeah, that shit is annoying otherwise.
Frank Bolton
@rikyrah: Is the US specifically refusing Syrian refugees or do they just prefer to go to Europe?
MattF
@rikyrah: I’d like to see Obama do that, just to make the point that Republicans (and Trump, in particular) are heartless assholes. But, as we know, he’s not someone who acts at the drop of a hat.
Thoughtful Today
For me:
Hillary is awful on trade, worker’s rights, minimum wage, climate change, banking regulation, war, the death penalty, healthcare…
… for starters.
Bernie’s policies are better on every issue.
Hillary’s better than the Republicans, sure, but that’s not a high bar.
Schlemazel
@rikyrah:
Two reasons:
They can’t sail here easily
We have a great capacity to ignore what we can’t see
I did see that some ISIS asshole claimed to be slipping sleeper agents in using the refugees. That is a clever way to undermine the effort and generate ill will that could cause the sort of disenfranchisement that creates terrorists
the Conster
I’m a woman and would love to see a woman as president, but I’ve never wanted it to be Hillary – too much baggage, and I think she has terrible instincts. She’s not a good campaigner. She still has her posse of FAIL around her. She’s too close to Haim Saban and the AIPAC crowd. She’s got Bill larrying around in the background and I really don’t want him back in the White House as more of an anchor than a resource, with the panty-sniffing press ready to revive all their career making 90s stories. I can easily see her stumbling and losing at the finish line. Easily.
If Joe finds it in him, he’s got the charm, wit, smile, gravitas and experience to pull it off. He’ll have Obama’s full support and probably his ground game. If the rumors about the meeting with Warren result in a ticket with her, I think it’s a dead lock.
Botsplainer
Stunning incompetence from Kim Davis’ legal team:
rikyrah
MEDIA ALERT:
EMPIRE FANS
The show will have a marathon today on FX, beginning at NOON, EST.
So, if you have missed some episodes, here’s your chance to get them on the DVR.
Baud
@the Conster:
They all can. Easily. It’s a matter of personal preference who one thinks carries the biggest risk in the general.
Schlemazel
@Botsplainer:
What the hell do they teach those rubes at Liberty law school?
Cervantes
@Thoughtful Today:
Or his 25%.
Pretty funny, I agree.
Baud
@Schlemazel:
Resurrection law.
Rapture law.
All the important stuff.
Iowa Old Lady
@Glidwrith: That’s my dream ticket too.
Amir Khalid
@the Conster:
On the other hand, Joe has never been all that successful as a candidate for President. And he doesn’t seem particularly keen on it right now.
OzarkHillbilly
@Schlemazel:Exactly. But if money is the argument that wins the day, I am all for using it.
Baud
@Amir Khalid:
I agree with Josh Marshall. He doesn’t seem like someone who has the energy for a run.
Cervantes
@Botsplainer:
Well, there’s a difference — small but real — between the paraphrase that you quoted (“did not know incarceration was a possible result of the contempt hearing,” which could be a general statement and is clearly wrong) and what Staver actually said:
Which is specific to this case.
Chris
@Schlemazel:
I think if there were a serious effort to take in Syrian and Iraqi refugees, you’d hear this from every right wing media outlet and most of the “Shape Of Earth: Views Differ” mainstream media outlets instantly.
You know how widespread the “all Muslims are terrorists” and the “immigrants bring crime” memes are – this would combine both of them.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Botsplainer: They probably didn’t think that far ahead. I assume they thought that the SCOTUS would back her and she’s be the latest “religious liberty” hero.
Anyone who has paid the least bit of attention knows that you don’t disobey a judge, especially a federal judge.
One of her lawyers was on Chris Hayes show a few days ago. Chris was destroying him, asking him what she would do if an interracial couple wanted a marriage license if she had a religious objection, etc. The lawyer didn’t inspire confidence that he could present a sensible argument (and decent lawyers can present a sensible argument for anything – that’s their job).
Cheers,
Scott.
Schlemazel
@OzarkHillbilly:
Absolutely! It just chaps me to fight a good fight using the wrong argument simply because it wins.
The end does not justify the means – the means tend to dictate the end
the Conster
@Amir Khalid:
Times change, circumstances change, the world has changed, and the Republicans have all gone crazy.
MattF
@Botsplainer: The fact that the judge summoned Davis and her assistants should have been a clue.
Another Holocene Human
@Botsplainer: W’s callous lack of empathy for America and the world’s lower classes seemed pretty evil to me.
Schlemazel
@Chris:
Of course we would. This is exactly the sort of thing that the ISIS guy was planning on. Plant the seed let the evil bastards fertilize it create the sort of hate and separation that is a perfect breeding ground for terrorists. Those guys know how to play the fools on the right and the long game magnificently
Another Holocene Human
@Amir Khalid: lol
Setting a Mallo on fire might be a mistake.
Baud
@Schlemazel:
On this we differ.
At least where the “wrong” argument is not itself an evil argument, and ending a waste of money is not an evil argument.
Iowa Old Lady
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I saw that Hayes interview. The lawyer never answered the question, which Hayes the limiting case. That is, how far would an exception to the law go? Instead the lawyer seemed to be saying this card is just for us.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady:
Ah, the Bush v. Gore argument.
Cervantes
@Schlemazel:
Staver, her attorney, was not a student there; he used to be the Dean!
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: What you said.
Schlemazel
@Baud:
Oh I use it, it just bothers me. If for no other reason than it elevates the focus on meney for everything the government does. Not everything we do, or should be doing, should be a dollar cost analysis.
Another Holocene Human
@The Raven on the Hill:
Wait wait, does this mean all the former Republican voters move out of America and new voters move in?!
henqiguai
@Robert Sneddon (#51):
Thank you. I knew Ian’s comments were contrary to facts, just didn’t have the energy to go dig up the *specifics*. Dislike HW’s presidency all you want, but don’t fall into the conservative habit of blatantly lying about that which you don’t like. Unless it’s okra; then all bets are off.
OzarkHillbilly
@Schlemazel: Yeah but we are talking to conservative compassionates here.
Morzer
Biden has been a good VP for Obama, but I have a hard time forgetting how he screwed up over Anita Hill and Clarence Thomas. He would bring nothing new or interesting to the race for the nomination and he will only make a fool of himself if he tries.
Another Holocene Human
@Baud:
So far this email shit has been weak sauce. Wake me up when she pardoned a cop killer or a dead intern was found in her office.
Schlemazel
@Cervantes:
Hahahaha! Thanks, that explains a lot.
OT my Chromebook screen took a trump and I have been working on a 7″ tablet this AM. What a pain! Typing is slow even by my low standard. I ordered a new screen that’s on its way. You all have a great holiday, we are going for a picnic in the country now
Another Holocene Human
@The Raven on the Hill:
The explanation from the wonks for TPP is that either this US-led effort goes through (which our ally Japan really wants, btw), or we give up, and China does their own regional trade thingy, forcing everyone else involved in the region to go along with their terms.
Personally, I trust Obama on labor and environmental issues and also pursuing US interests more than I trust the Chinese gov’t.
Mike J
@Schlemazel:
MEh. It’s a bad argument, but not an entirely stupid one. He’s arguing that there wasn’t enough due process.
If she stays in jail for six months, she’ll get the jury trial she wants for the contempt charge.
Frank Bolton
@Another Holocene Human: I think that it’s more if the Republican Party loses a 3rd election (especially if they go for a full-court press with Donald Trump) the establishment will have no choice but to face the fact that future tax cuts and deregulation jags will be dependent on forcefully confronting their own base.
The fly in the ointment, of course, are the off-year elections. I can see a future where the Republican Party is demographically locked out of the Presidency but are strong enough between those elections that they can institute cycles of gridlock and more importantly seed the party’s leadership with survivors. They degenerate into a party that can compete nationally in Congress but only regionally in Presidential years, never changing until the demographic dam completely bursts and destroys the party in one fell swoop.
On the other hand, I can also see a Republican Party that manages to capture the Presidency due to Democratic Party screw-ups despite their massive disadvantages.
pamelabrown53
@Cervantes:
None of them without doing a more thorough search. IMO, the democrats have been too easily frightened by the NRA and single issue gun voters. It is an area where I think we should be taking a stronger stand.
thefax
I don’t think Biden will run. He’s a savvy guy, and he’s got to know that his support for the Bankruptcy Bill would kill him in 2016–it’s one of those things that a lot of people have forgotten about/don’t know about, but a campaign will bring it up again and it won’t be good…
Baud
@Another Holocene Human:
Agreed. At this point, it’s beyond weak sauce with me. I’m at the point where I would look askance at anyone who used it as a argument against Hillary.
Patricia Kayden
Biden has been an excellent (and sometimes humorous) Vice President. His legacy is secure. There is zero need for him to run for the Presidency once again. Personally, I’d love to see President Obama, our first Black President, turn the White House over to Hilary Clinton, the first woman President. I’d also love it if Clinton picked a Latino VP. It would show that the Democratic Party has fully embraced diversity, which is something that Republicans can only dream about.
the Conster
@thefax:
Hillary voted for the original version of the bill, along with the Iraq vote. Hillary’s instinct is to be the moderate Republican from the times of y’ore.
Mike J
In Canada, Joe the micturitor is out
http://www.cbc.ca/news/jerry-bance-marketplace-1.3217797
PurpleGirl
@Baud: Maybe Liberty sees itself as a national law school and teaches the broader philosophical side of law. For down-n-dirty, nitty-gritty of real consequences under state law codes. you have to attend a local(ish) law school — it’s Harvard/Princeton/Yale vs St. John’s/Fordham/Brooklyn (in terms of NYC schools).
ETA: In other words, the local law school prepares you better to take the state bar exam and pass it.
Baud
@PurpleGirl:
Details are for the little people.
debbie
@Schlemazel:
The attorney’s also stated that the judge had made his mind up before the hearing started.
Amir Khalid
@Mike J:
Canadian creativity impresses me. In my country, all we have is a PM who gets caught with unexplained billions in his bank account.
Thoughtful Today
Biden would be a formidable challenger and I believe he would add an interesting voice to the Democratic debates.
Hillary’s benefited from the lack of debates.
Chris
@Another Holocene Human:
Yeah, this. I do think Bush was a lazy prick who left most of the work to others, but things like mocking a death row inmate or thinking his inability to find WMDs made a hilarious punchline indicated a guy who wasn’t just some amiable dunce, but a genuine asshole.
(Same with Reagan, for that matter).
Another Holocene Human
@rikyrah: I hope buying non union buns, condiments, hot dogs from the union busting retailer (walmart/sam’s) was on that etiquette list.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: Biden lost his son not that long ago. So it’s not like it’s a normal situation and he just can’t decide whether to run or not run. After a loss like Beau, a week, a month, two months can make an enormous difference in your emotional state.
I see a man who was probably planning on running and now has been dealt a huge emotional loss and he’s got a huge decision to make that will affect the rest of his life. I have nothing but respect for Joe Biden for trying to decide whether he has the emotional energy (after Beau’s death) to run AND for his being willing to say that out loud.
My take is that if Joe decides to run, he will have the energy.
At BooMan’s yesterday, I saw a reference to a Joe Biden / Elizabeth Warren meeting and Warren’s possible interest in running as Biden’s VP. That really perked my ears up. I would vote for that combo in a heartbeat.
Chris
@Schlemazel:
Yep. But I don’t think ISIS even needed to bother. Our assholes would absolutely do it for them, free of charge.
Snarkworth
I keep hearing that people like Trump because “he says things other people think but are afraid to say.”
I call bullshit. I don’t see a lot of evidence that people are afraid to say horrible stuff.
Another Holocene Human
@Frank Bolton: The Dem Party is a known fuck-up factory.
Chris
@Snarkworth:
People continue to say bigoted stuff, but because they can’t say it and receive universal approval for it anymore, they now feel compelled to add a grumbling line about how “I know it’s not politically correct to say, but” before they say it. You get to say all the same things you used to, and tell people what a martyr you are for having people disagree. Best of both worlds.
Amir Khalid
@WaterGirl:
I can see a VP having plenty of other business to discuss with a liberal senator from his party. That meeting may well have had nothing to do with Joe considering whether to run for President. Neither he nor Warren has said that it did.
Cervantes
@PurpleGirl:
Princeton had a law school for about six years in the middle of the 19th century; not since then.
Cervantes
@Another Holocene Human:
Compared to … ?
Baud
@WaterGirl:
I hadn’t heard that. It would get people talking, but I’m skeptical about that combo actually happening.
It’ll be interesting.
the Conster
@WaterGirl:
I think Joe is desperately afraid of so much of his and Barack’s work being fumbled away by a possible Hillary loss in the general, that he realizes he needs to step up, plus campaign with someone who represents the future. Even though she’s in her 60s, Liz Warren is energetic, enthusiastic and devastatingly on point in her criticisms. She’s got the potential to appeal to the women who want Hillary and the lefties who want Bernie, plus Uncle Joe can credibly woo the Obama coalition. I don’t see how that doesn’t work.
Her interview with The Globe last week says as much about what she doesn’t say about running as she does say.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid:
That’s from an ABC website and it doesn’t sound like her usual unequivocal denials, to me.
Cervantes
@Amir Khalid:
When you’re caught urinating into one person’s coffee mug, it’s your problem; but when you’re caught urinating into everyone’s coffee mug it’s their problem.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I think it’s interesting, too. I think that combo is the only way I see either Biden or Warren in the race. It would surely make all the debates interesting, and it would be a very smart move for Biden.
Amir Khalid
@the Conster:
I find it hard to believe Joe’s meeting with Elizabeth Warren was about him running with her on the ticket. She’s said she is most definitely not running for President in 2016. Why would she then decide to run for Vice-President?
Baud
@WaterGirl:
I don’t know why Warren would want it. She has power and a voice as a Senator — as Veep, she would always have to tow the admin line.
the Conster
@Amir Khalid:
It may be that he would rely on her to campaign with him. She might consider being VP. Joe’s marching with Richard Trumka in a Labor Day parade. He’s working the base, so he’s not sitting around waiting for things to fall out of the sky into his outstretched hands.
WaterGirl
@the Conster: Interesting article, thanks for the link! I hadn’t caught that she was unwilling state that she will absolutely server out her term as senator.
I would love a woman in the white house, but I cannot get excited about Hillary Clinton – either as president or as the first female president.
Kay
@OzarkHillbilly:
It reminded me of the estate tax argument. Remember how that was all about saving “family farms”?
Bankruptcy reform was all about saving “small businesses”. I had to stop listening to them. My head was going to explode. I say this as someone who has had debt owed to me discharged in bankruptcy. I am just so, so sick of the we’re saving “small business” bullshit. They did it for giant, unsecured high-interest lenders who were incredibly irresponsible. Had nothing whatever to do with “small business”.
Snarkworth
Biden-Warren does not compute. Why would Warren want to run with Joe Bankity-Bank-Bank Biden?
J R in WV
@Keith G:
Me neither, but it will sure be interesting to watch in real time, won’t it? We are doomed – cursed – to live in interesting times!! Too interesting, really!!
I for sure never wanted to watch our shaky democracy die the death of a thousand Republican cuts in my lifetime!
WaterGirl
@Baud: I agree with you on Warren’s power and voice as senator, so I have understood her lack of interest in running. But if she ran not as her own candidate but as VP with Biden, I suspect she would always be the last person in the room (as Biden requested of Obama) and she would have a huge amount of influence on financial issues.
I see this combo as an option I could get excited about. I know there’s always the possibility of any candidate imploding, but I think Hillary Clinton’s chance of that are much higher than the average candidate. So while I’ll vote for her if she is the nominee, I would feel really good about having a serious alternative.
edited
the Conster
@Snarkworth:
If Joe does a mea culpa with Warren blessing it, that would work. Biden represented Delaware – it’s like Hillary representing New York and her votes for AIPAC and Wall Street. Why should we believe her?
the Conster
@WaterGirl:
Plus, if the rumors about Joe have any weight, he would only want to be a one term president. How better as a Dem to pick someone like Liz Warren who could step up after one term and potentially be president for the next 8 years? Obama likes to play the long game, and may have made a suggestion or three to Joe.
J R in WV
@OzarkHillbilly:
But to me there is a big difference between being put down like a mad dog and dying with friends holding my hand. Knowing that everyone thinks you are a barely-human monster while you suffer and die can’t be the easiest best way to pass from this world.
Although I might outlive most of my friends. I do have several who are between 10 and 15 years younger, so maybe there will be people around me who know the good I may have accomplished. Hoping so.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Agree. If this does come to pass, I’m sure there will have been some intense negotiating between Warren and Biden about her role and influence.
Mandalay
@Thoughtful Today:
We have the vile Debbie Wasserman Schultz to thank for that extraordinary decision:
And who the hell would ever say “my staff and I made this decision…”?
WaterGirl
@Baud: You, of course, are still my first choice. !Baud 2016
Kay
@OzarkHillbilly:
And so I’m here watching people borrowing money to buy houses that are fake-priced based on inflated home values and they also have tons of credit card debt (Ohio was ahead of the rest of the country in the recession and I felt like it was apparent we were all going down fast by 2006) and I know people are discharging unsecured debt in order to pay their secured debt (cars and houses) and the Bush Administration and Congress rush onto the scene to save unsecured lenders and make everything worse:
They just wanted to keep the party going, but they had to know wages weren’t rising so where were people getting this money to keep buying? They weren’t. They were borrowing it.
It’s funny that Biden says he isn’t a populist because he’s partly responsible for making me one :)
Baud
@WaterGirl:
I read that as iBaud, and I thought I was an Apple product.
henqiguai
@rikyrah (#125):
Kind’a serious answer: Because it’s still primarily the EU’s problem?
Matt McIrvin
@pamelabrown53: To my mind, vetting is one of the reasons we have primary campaigns. In the still-very-unlikely event that Sanders actually beats Hillary Clinton in the primary campaign, he’ll have proven that he can play in the big leagues.
I still think he’ll fade after New Hampshire. But he will probably win New Hampshire and get a lot of attention as a serious candidate at that point.
Just One More Canuck
@Mike J: It just goes to show you that American conservatives are wimps at heart. Your conservatives only figuratively piss in your coffee.
Phoebe
@Another Holocene Human:
Except that the people making that argument about the value of the TPP somehow never address the way we could presumably have gotten exactly the same benefits vis-a-vis China without the giant giveaways to big pharma and legacy media companies and et cetera. Those are U.S. interests; it’s our negotiators pushing for them. If anything about what’s leaked seemed to indicate that the TPP was about making concessions to our trade partners in order to obtain the environmental and labor standards that we want, as well as about countering a Chinese play for regional hegemony, this would be a very different debate.
Amir Khalid
@the Conster:
Joe can’t offer Warren a VP slot until he has the nomination. Right now it’s far from a sure thing that he will get it.
the Conster
@Amir Khalid:
I think he wants her energy for his campaign. I think the VP thing is only a talking point, because of course nothing happens unless he’s nominated as you say.
Kay
@OzarkHillbilly:
I wonder if it will have an effect on younger people, watching that collapse. My middle son just accepted an apprenticeship with the IBEW which means he will take a pay cut and it’s a 5 year commitment but he sees it as more secure than staying in the market with an entry-level credential because they’re willing to invest something in his training. I know everyone makes fun of millennials for being shallow or whatever, but they seem much more savvy about what they can get, in a good way, than I remember being at that age. What other people see as “spoiled” I see as “appropriately wary of free market magic” :) I’m glad because I think they will need that approach.
Amir Khalid
Since it’s Open Thread:
Why are you Americans talking about “Labor” Day in September? Everyone knows Labour Day is on the first of May.
MattF
@Kay: Here is a post on the Interfluidity blog that really clarified my thinking about moral hazard. Towards the end of the post, Waldman points out that the phrase really refers to creditors not debtors. It refers to people or institutions who lend money and then assume that if the loan goes bust, someone will step up to save their skin. Too big to fail, and all that.
karen marie
@Keith G: You only wish he were Dukakis.
MattF
@Amir Khalid: Because May Day is for commies.
karen marie
@Zinsky: “Badly damaged”? Given the Republican candidates and their platform, she would have to eat live babies on TV to lose.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Matt McIrvin: Jesse Jackson won 7 primaries and several caucuses in 1988. It’s hard to say that he had much impact on the eventual Dukakis / Bentsen campaign.
Bernie may win a primary or few. He won’t have a major impact, though, unless he wins the nomination if history is any guide.
Cheers,
Scott.
MattF
@karen marie: Now you’ve done it. I expect that accusation to emerge from the swamp any minute now. “A comment on a well-known left-wing blog accused Hillary of eating babies. While we have no definite information on this accusation, it would be wrong for us to ignore it.”
tybee
@OzarkHillbilly:
was he perchance dining at the pickwick restaurant?
Thoughtful Today
In the short run Warren would be more powerful as Senate Leader.
In the long run Warren would be more powerful as President of the Senate.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Then I would buy you for sure, because I’m an apple girl.
lol
@Betty Cracker:
Money is irrelevant because Trump has as much of it as he’ll need. Romney only won the nomination because he was able to drown the field in money just when his biggest competition was running out of it.
Jeb!’s entire advantage is based on the premise that he’ll be the only one in the room with a gun come February.
Okay, he’ll also have establishment tricks for the delegates, but that’s the sort of thing that leads a cut-throat business mogul to declare that since the RNC didn’t treat him fairly, he’s free to run as an independent.
Keith G
@karen marie:
That is a rather strange assertion, and completely devoid of any validity.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@Schlemazel:
You can always do it as a two-fer argument to strengthen the moral one — not only is it harmful and destructive, it’s also a waste of money. It helps inoculate against the “bleeding heart liberal” charge by pointing out that conservatives are the ones throwing good money after bad based on their “moral” thinking.
Full metal Wingnut
@satby: This is grossly unfair to O’Malley. He may not be a genius, but he’s 1000x smarter than Walker. He was a competent Governor and a solid Democrat. His Lt lost because of middle class crybabies who were fed up with increased taxes and tolls-but what can you do, government costs money.
Full metal Wingnut
@Keith G: I am not looking forward to another 8 years of mostly manufactured Clinton scandals.
Now I know the “liberal” media will go after any Democratic president, but Obama has been clean and shown good judgment. I don’t personally care where Slick Willy sticks his dick, but as long as that is the type of shit the village will eat up keep it in your pants. The Clintons have been hounded by the media for a quarter century now, and Hillary in particular has developed a sort of standoffish relationship with the Village-not her fault but it’s a vicious feedback loop. Add to that the fact that the Clintons are also very talented at surrounding themselves with venal assholes-not unique among politicians, just especially bad in this regard.
But anyway, what other choice do we have? I like Bernie Sanders but he doesn’t have the money and a lot of people who would otherwise be inclined to support him have convinced themselves that he can’t win a general election and created a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.
I wouldn’t mind a third Obama term.
Full metal Wingnut
@David Koch: Well Sanders is significantly different policy wise. Biden is far less distinguishable.
But the Clintons have always been scandal magnets. A lot of that is their fault-Blowjobgate was indefensible but Clinton sort of brought it on himself by being such an irrepressible horndog. And they surround themselves with venal and sometimes incompetent assholes.
Full metal Wingnut
@David Koch: I don’t think any intelligent person thinks Biden himself is sexist for wanting to run for president. It’s perfectly reasonable for a sitting VP to run.
I think the argument is that the people beating the drum for a Biden candidacy are at the very least being unconsciously sexist. There’s not a whole lot of difference between Biden and Hillary on the merits. For all the heat H gets for being a mediocre speaker and campaigner, Biden is not an improvement. Etcetera. The people wanting Biden to run have not articulated much in the way of intelligible reasons for Biden to run. A lot of them are drooling idiots like, say, Luke Russert who are Very Concerned about emailghazi
The other thing is timing. I don’t think most of these people would be bitching and moaning if Biden had declared months ago, but now it the narrative smacks of white guy virtually indistinguishable from Clinton needs to swoop in and save us.
Granted, Biden had plenty of reason to put off entering the race. That being said, politics, especially at this level, is very unforgiving of the vicissitudes of life. I’m sorry for Biden’s loss, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s getting very late.
WaterGirl
@Full metal Wingnut: I disagree. If two candidates are close on the issues, but you trust and respect one candidate and do not trust and respect the other candidate, there is plenty of reason to choose one candidate over the other. That has nothing to do with sexism.
Full metal Wingnut
@WaterGirl: Yes, but policy is at least an objective metric. The squishier “trust” and “temperament” are where the sexism comes in. I’m not saying that everyone who prefers Biden is sexist, but if you’re gonna push back so hard against the idea you might want to pause for a bit of self-reflection first.
WaterGirl
@Full metal Wingnut: I don’t have to pause; I would vote for Elizabeth Warren in a heartbeat. It’s not gender, it’s the candidate.
Anne Laurie
@WaterGirl:
I would vote for Diana Prince in a heartbeat, but she’s not running in 2016 either (also, she’s even more imaginary than the Magic Warrior Warren in some peoples’ heads).
I don’t think the argument being made is “Biden/Warren, or Hillary?” I think it’s “Hillary, or some S*A*V*I*O*R who will have all of Hillary’s virtues and none of her vices / weak points?” There being a severe shortage of saviors in this imperfect reality, I say we work on shoring up Hillary’s virtues and trying to discourage her weak points.
She does have many good facets, and just as important, right now she looks like the very best chance we have to ensure President Obama’s successes aren’t cut down by the Repub clowns.
Paul in KY
If his heart is into it, I would vote for VP Biden over Mrs. Clinton.