Good poll for Ohio

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is essentially tied with Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.
The poll found Kasich, who has been mentioned as a possible 2016 presidential candidate, leading FitzGerald 45 percent to 44 percent with 11 percent saying they are unsure.
The poll’s findings are welcome news for Fitzgerald. A Quinnipiac poll taken two months earlier found Kasich leading FitzGerald, 50 percent to 35 percent.

I got a call from FitzGerald’s campaign on Friday or Saturday of last week, but I haven’t called back yet. The general sense of people here is the economy is better and that’s why the incumbent will be hard to beat. I have no idea why a better economy would benefit John Kasich and not also benefit national Democrats running in Ohio, so I don’t know. Benefits Kasich but also benefits Congressional Democrats running in Ohio?

As I believe you know because I rant about incessantly, I think the state races are really important. A lot of the stuff that is important to people happens at the state level- public education, most criminal law, consumer regulatory protections, taxes and priorities on funding, election law and voter protection, privatization of public services and worker protections (whether those protections are regulatory or through collective bargaining).

Here’s the poll

Feel free to discuss elections in your state.

55 replies
  1. 1
    LanceThruster says:

    Kasich is truly an embarrassment.

  2. 2
    shelley says:

    The poll found Kasich, who has been mentioned as a possible 2016 presidential candidate,

    Cripes, is there any Republican, besides Gohmert, who hasn’t been considered a possible candidate? Waiting for Eastwood’s empty chair to declare.

    Silly season, you betcha

  3. 3
    El Caganer says:

    Agree 100% on the importance of state races. IMO that’s the only reason why the Republicans/Tea Partiers are still successfully dragging the nation to the right. By grabbing power at the state level, they can work all kinds of mischief for their pet causes and incrementally nudge the federal government in their direction. I’ve mentioned Pennsylvania as an example before, because it really shows how screwed up this is: registered Democrats far, far outnumber registered Republicans, yet the governor is a Republican, both state senate and house have Republican majorities, and the state supreme court has (or until recently had) a Republican majority.

  4. 4
    Betty Cracker says:

    @El Caganer: Right you are. We have a good chance to get rid of our crooked bastard governor here in FL in the upcoming election. I’d love to see every tea party loon who got into office in 2014 swept out on his ass, but that ain’t gonna happen. I’d settle for seeing the worst of them slither back to their lairs. Scott is at the top of my personal list.

  5. 5
    BGinCHI says:

    IL politics generally:

    GOP: absolutely terrible

    Dems: not as terrible as the GOP but still fucking terrible

  6. 6
    Mike in NC says:

    @shelley: Oh, they’ll get around to speculating about Gohmert alright. Just give the media enough time.

  7. 7
    El Caganer says:

    @Betty Cracker: At the national level, though, you have to keep Yoho around until Talk Like A Pirate Day.

  8. 8
    rikyrah says:

    Good to hear the poll, considering that the DEM doesn’t remotely have the voter recognition of Kasich.

  9. 9
    rikyrah says:


    GOP is a disaster. GOP candidate is another Scott Walker. Must defeat him.

    Even if I’m not crazy about the Dem Candidate.

  10. 10
    rikyrah says:

    Looking forward to voting against Rahm Emmanuel.

  11. 11
    piratedan says:

    well the old saw, all politics is local still has some truth to it… know that folks here in the glorious Grand Canyon state have been working quietly with voter registration getting hispanics and native americans on the rolls. If I wasn’t working, that’s where I’d be helping out. Getting forms filled out, getting people registered. To be honest, I’m not even concerned if they don’t vote a Democratic ticket, everyone should vote and get their franchise realized.

  12. 12
    Calouste says:

    Quinnipiac is the outfit that released the rather dodgy poll about Obama being the worst president ever a few weeks ago, are they?

  13. 13
    BGinCHI says:

    @rikyrah: No arguments there. Rauner is a criminal.

    And I wouldn’t vote for Rahm if he paid me a thousand dollars. Five thousand gets him a conversation.

  14. 14
    piratedan says:

    @Calouste: true, but this time they aren’t weighting the South as being 37% of the nation

  15. 15
    MGB says:

    @BGinCHI: @rikyrah: I want to wear a sign that says, “I voted for Del Valle” in regards to Rahm.

    And yeah, IL politics, ain’t great, but Rauner does NOT need to win this year.

  16. 16
    Anoniminous says:

    The key in Ohio is maintaining the Dem Base and energizing the AA vote. If voter turnout reflects 2010 Kaisch will be re-elected, the more voter turnout reflects 2012 the greater the chance for FitzGerald will win.

    2012 results and exit polling.

  17. 17
    James E. Powell says:

    It would be nice if my beloved home state Ohio would wake up and smell the scotch, but I’m not going to get my hopes up. Once you get south of the turnpike, you may as well be in Kentucky or Indiana (Franklin County excepted). Kasich is the potential 2016 candidate of whom I am most afraid. He is a thinner Christie who doesn’t yell at people.

  18. 18
    KXB says:


    While I am no fan of Rauner, I suspect he will win by simply being “not Quinn.” From Blagovich being elected in 2003, through Quinn, Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for 11 years, they have both houses of the state legislature, and I suspect that will work against them. Quinn doubled the state income tax. It was unchanged for over 2 decades prior to that, but it was sold as the painful part of getting the state’s finances in order. Yet, he failed to work on the spending side, so IL is still considered one of the worst fiscally manged states. He has done nothing to try and roll back Mike Madigan’s power, who really runs the state, as demonstrated by the Metra scandal. Then there is the matter of $41 million that went to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, which now appears to be just another IL tradition of “walking around money.”

    I suspect Rauner will win, but the legislature will stay in Democratic hands, which will keep him from pulling a Scott Walker.

  19. 19
    Punchy says:

    While I used to believe nothing could sink Brownback the Asshole, I see even the NYT figgy’d out this scam. While I still believe the ijits that populate this state east, north, south, and west of Lawrence wont vote the DemonCrat candy into office, at least the national media are noticing that GOP fiscal policy is all lies and bullshit.

  20. 20
    GRANDPA john says:

    One things that I found highly questionable was the break down by age. Only 27 % polled was under 45? age groups that were decidedly Dem voters.

  21. 21
    Omnes Omnibus (the first of his name) says:

    The most recent polls I have seen from WI (late May) were showing Walker and Burke tied at around 45-46%.

  22. 22
    Betty Cracker says:

    @El Caganer: I’d love to see that asshole hit the bricks, but I don’t think it’ll happen.

  23. 23
    NonyNony says:

    @GRANDPA john:

    One things that I found highly questionable was the break down by age. Only 27 % polled was under 45? age groups that were decidedly Dem voters

    There’s no mention of whether this is likely voters or just potential voters. If they’re using a likely voter model that is based on historic voting patterns during off-year elections, then there would be fewer younger voters than older ones because younger people historically vote in smaller numbers in off years than older voters do. (Many of the Dem constituencies fall into this pattern – they turn out once every four years, but are more sporadic in their voting in non-presidential years).

    But there’s no real nod to whether this is a sample of likely voters or just potential voters. There isn’t even an indication of margin of error or anything. I’m not yet sure how much to trust it.

    (But given that Qunnipac had Kasich at just 50% a few months ago, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that this is true. King John’s reputation as an imperious ass hasn’t recovered yet, and even though the economy in Ohio is supposedly recovering, nobody believes that it is actually recovering. Probably because the GOP has spent so much energy convincing people that things are awful.)

  24. 24
    Mnemosyne says:


    Any idea who might run against Rahm when the time comes? From what I remember, Chicago Democrats aren’t shy about challenging the incumbent and Rahm seems more Bilandic or Byrne to me than a second Daley.

  25. 25
    Trollhattan says:

    @Betty Cracker:
    Has Zimmerman filed for office yet? Given the poor schlub is having employment and family issues, seems like the logical next step.

  26. 26
    columbusqueen says:

    @NonyNony: Imperious ass indeed–I met Kasich back in ’96 when I ran for county office & he was running for his House seat again. Could not believe what a jerk he was, & am hoping Ed turns him to mincemeat. Am also hoping the rumors about potential scandals come true & leave ol’ John a heap on the ground.

  27. 27
    p.a. says:

    Interesting D gov primary race here in RI. Gina Raimondo state Treasurer very strong pro-choice but a Manhattan Institute pod person who led the charge attacking state workers’ pensions when the economy collapsed, Angel Tavares, Mayor of Prov. who got the city’s fiscal house in (relative) order after our last mayor went to Congress leaving a huge deficit behind (very tough for Pvd.mayors to get elected statewide; they’re just not trusted out in the ‘burbs for some reason), and Clay Pell, grandson of late US Sen. Claiborne Pell; vewwy vewwy blue-blood, and apparently as ‘unusual’ as his gramps: reported his car stolen when he just forgot where he parked it. Married to Michelle Mean.

  28. 28
    Trollhattan says:

    @columbusqueen: Is there any way he and Walker might become cellmates? Is either exposed to federal charges?

    On the left coast we never hear jack about either of them.

  29. 29
    p.a. says:

    Michelle Kwan. Spell check changed Tavares to Ravages, but I caught that one.

  30. 30
    BGinCHI says:

    @Mnemosyne: Two best prospects are the woman who is prez of the Chicago Teachers Union (Karen Lewis, who hates Rahm) and Toni Preckwinkle (prez of the Cook County Board).

    Both are running ahead of him in polls. Both would be better than Rahm, as they seem not to be beholden to fatcats.

    He can only win if some typical dipshit runs against him.

  31. 31
    Bobby B. says:

    The polls never catch the “Shy Tories”.

  32. 32
    another Holocene human says:

    @El Caganer: Apres vous. I just donated money to send him back to cattle midwifery and horse proctology.

  33. 33
    artem1s says:


    but this time they aren’t weighting the South as being 37% of the nation

    It would be interesting to know where the sample resided in the state. If Kasich isn’t polling well downstate suddenly, then this is a real shocker of a poll. The Independent/Other numbers are surprising to me as well. I hope that ‘other’ doesn’t mean ‘not registered’ or ‘not likely’ to vote. Also the 46 to 65 age group is leaning more toward Fitzgerald than I would have anticipated. And of course, one would think that a landline poll would favor the GOP candidate.

    I hope someone follows up on this quickly. If Fitzgerald can overcome his name recognition problem downstate this late in the campaign, then he might just have a chance. It would be even better if Kasich could have another run in with the State Highway Patrol.

  34. 34
    BruinKid says:

    @piratedan: Actually, I think that number is pretty close to the mark. They include Texas in the South, so the demographics weren’t off. The problem with the Q-poll was the question itself, not the weighting process.

    And it was of registered voters, not all Americans. But as far as I could tell, the demographic numbers matched up.

  35. 35
    piratedan says:

    @BruinKid: “The South”, I can see that you can get there if you include Texas, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Missouri…so I sit corrected… I have to remember that the few urban areas of the region are little islands of blue in a swamp of red.

  36. 36
    gene108 says:


    Quinnipiac is the outfit that released the rather dodgy poll about Obama being the worst president ever a few weeks ago, are they?

    Analysis I heard on that is it asked Democrats to rank the best Democratic President, since WW2.

    The Democratic vote get split up between Kennedy, Clinton, and Obama (and maybe a few votes for Carter).

    The Republicans almost unanimously voted for Reagan.

    That’s one reason that poll is ended up the way it did. It’s not that Obama is unpopular, it’s just that the Democrats have had more than one President they can rally behind, since WW2,unlike Republicans.

  37. 37
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @p.a.: I’m sure you know, but there’s also a contested primary on the R side, between Alan Fung, mayor of the city of Cranston, and Ken Block, who ran last time around as a candidate from the Moderate Party (who the f knows what that is?)

    There’s an interesting contest for the post of General Treasurer, too, between two Democrats and an independent. Frank Caprio, a fixture in RI politics is up against Seth Magaziner, son of former Clinton-era presidential adviser Ira, and Ernie Almonte, former Auditor General, is the independent – he was originally planning on running for Gov, but saw that he’d get pasted by Gina, with whom he’s worked a great deal, so then went for Treasurer, but when he saw that Caprio would carry the party endorsement due to his deep connections – he is the son of a prominent local jurist.

  38. 38
    columbusqueen says:

    @Trollhattan: Not federal but personal stuff. For at least 20 years, I have heard the persistent rumor that Kasich’s in the closet, & that he keeps it quiet through a mix of bullying & payoffs.

    Reportedly, his chief of staff from his House days was also his partner who shared a home with John in Westerville. I also have several gay friends who claim to have seen him at various orgies in his salad days. Finally, a close friend who’s been active in local politics for 50 years recently passed on the story that Karen Kasich always starts raving about John’s preference for cock when she’s drunk.

    Gossip? Sure–but after 20 years’ worth of gossip, I have to wonder. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire after all?

  39. 39
    Trollhattan says:

    Bunga bunga! Seems as though there needs to be a stream of cocktail party invites going to Mrs. K.

    “Do go on, dear!”

  40. 40

    I think you have the exact details wrong but the basic picture correct. It asked everyone to name the best and worst Presidents and then reported the ones who came out on the top and the bottom. That’s like running an election where you have 12 plausible candidates on the ballot and give the election to the plurality winner. You wind up with a winner who has deep by not necessarily broad support. The better way of doing it in either case is to have people rank the candidates and come up with some final result that takes into account the intermediate rankings.

  41. 41
    sempronia says:

    You saw this, right? Sandra Fluke’s running for CA state senate in LA.

    So happy to see that she’s converted that moment of national spotlight into something potentially more lasting. She’s a fighter, and one to watch.

  42. 42
    columbusqueen says:

    @sempronia: Rock on, Sandra!

  43. 43
    The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik says:


    They did a separate poll for ‘worst’, but almost turned out the exact same way as you stated: GOP votes unanimously, while Dems split their vote (in this case, splitting between Bush the Lesser and Nixon as the worst).

  44. 44
    WaterGirl says:

    @sempronia: I think you might have this backwards. It’s just like Wendy Davis in Texas. There is a reason these women were selected to be in the spotlight – so they could gain national prominence.

    Not that I think that’s a bad thing!

  45. 45
    Kay says:


    While I used to believe nothing could sink Brownback the Asshole,

    There’s weird things going on, though, so that makes it interesting. Kansas! Georgia! These R states are competitive. Why is Brownback so loathed?

    It would be fun to just be the person who looks for odd opportunities and focuses on state-level upsets. That’s why I don’t really get why national Democrats ignore the potential there.

    It has to be incredibly boring just counting US Senate seats over and over again. It’s always the same thing – Right-leaning Democrats who barely hang onto their Senate seat. I just can’t make myself care about Landrieu anymore. I don’t care if she wins. I don’t see her as this huge value-added anyway.

  46. 46
    Kay says:


    Why does everyone hate him? That seems like a worthwhile thing to look at, since he’s systematically putting in the entire ALEC agenda.

    A key factor in this showdown for governor appears to be potential movement by registered Republicans away from Brownback to Davis. One in four Republicans, in the poll for KSN-TV, indicated a desire to back Davis.

    It seems like one could use that information in other places. All of this state-level far Right stuff looks the same. Sometimes the statutes are nearly identical, word for word. In Ohio, they got caught actually using the ALEC caption on a law. They didn’t even bother to write the caption. They just took the ALEC model and cut and pasted.

  47. 47
    sempronia says:


    I’m not sure how Fluke was selected to testify in front of the Senate committee, but I don’t think the Rush-fueled outrage that catapulted her into the spotlight was planned by anyone. Wendy Davis’s thing, however, was supposed to be a showdown. Fluke grabbed the publicity around the four days of Limbaugh-yelling and has run with it. Perhaps it’s just a case of selecting likely people and putting them in likely spots.

    Now the business with Shirley Sherrod was pure serendipity, and although I wish that she had stepped into a more national role, she didn’t seem to want it. Too bad – she had the history and credibility.

  48. 48
    rikyrah says:


    Any idea who might run against Rahm when the time comes? From what I remember, Chicago Democrats aren’t shy about challenging the incumbent and Rahm seems more Bilandic or Byrne to me than a second Daley.

    The President of the Cook County Board might run.

    So might the Alderman from the Downtown district

    Or the President of the Chicago Teacher’s Union.

    I’d vote for any of the three over Rahm.

  49. 49
    David Koch says:

    Incumbent Governor is at 45% with 3 1/2 months left to go. === RED ALERT/Eric Cantor

  50. 50
    Debbie says:

    On a local PBS re

  51. 51
    debbie says:

    Okay, I’ll try again on a non-iPad device:

    “Columbus on the Record” is a local PBS reporters’ roundtable. They also invite a couple of what they call “political operatives.” Last week, the GOP operative was solicitously expressing concern that Fitzgerald still wasn’t very well known to the voters, and because of this and the fact that Fitzgerald has no money, he was afraid Fitzgerald was going to have a very hard time getting the voters’ attention.

    One of the reporters immediately pointed out that despite Fitzgerald’s lack of money or voter awareness, wasn’t it surprising that he was still very close to Kasich in the polls. The slimeball had no real response.

  52. 52
    VidaLoca says:


    That’s why I don’t really get why national Democrats ignore the potential there.

    I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s because the national Democrats don’t give a rat’s ass.

    We’re on our own here, people.

  53. 53
    Ben says:

    Last I checked Brendan Reilly represented downtown and was a Rahm loyalist. You’re thinking of Fioretti who represents the South Loop (Ward 2)

  54. 54
    columbusqueen says:

    @Trollhattan: She’s not very sociable, alas, or perhaps her dear husband screens the invites.

  55. 55
    SuzieC says:


    Ohioan here–what rumors? Do tell.

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