Who will be the last of the teams to qualify for the knockout stage?
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by Randinho| 116 Comments
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Who will be the last of the teams to qualify for the knockout stage?
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SRW1
Algeria to upset Russia. Capello to retire for good. You read it here first.
Calouste
@SRW1:
Wouldn’t really call that an upset. Algeria has scored 5 goals so far this tournament, Russia just 1.
? Martin
@Calouste: Russia was higher ranked than Algeria coming in. They were the favorite to advance.
Stan Gable
@Calouste:
I gathered from the last round that Algeria is basically the French B team. They looked pretty impressive in that game.
Punchy
Do these pinko commie bastards have any chance to advance? If so, what has to haps?
raven
Goddamn it I left the dog watering jug in the sink with the water running when the second half of the USA game started and just realized it!!
Calouste
@? Martin:
The FIFA rankings have about as much connection to reality as GOP internal polls.
JPL
@raven: Whoops!
raven
@JPL: Fortunately the boss is at art camp for the week and didn’t come home to catch it!
gene108
One spooky thing about these games is as much as there have been complaints about the heat and especially the humidity, it is the middle of freaking winter for most of Brazil.
I really do wonder what the summers are like.
raven
@gene108: The jungle is the jungle dawg.
Punchy
@gene108: It’s actually summer in the northern extremes of Brasil, and winter in the southern parts.
Roger Moore
@gene108:
Winter is a concept that makes more sense when talking about temperate and arctic areas. Most of the stadiums are in the tropics, where our ideas about the difference between summer and winter don’t necessarily apply.
burnspbesq
Given the results at this WC, I’d say its time for CONCACAF to be allocated an actual fourth spot in the field of 32, instead of three plus the playoff against Oceania. Take it away from Asia.
Calouste
Just notice that if Algeria finish second in this group, they’ll get the opportunity to take revenge for die Schande von Gijon.
justawriter
Just out of curiosity, what would happen if all the teams in a group ended up with three ties?
japa21
@justawriter: If two of the teams played a 2-2 tie and all the other games were 1-1 ties, the two that played the 2-2 tie would advance.
pseudonymous in nc
if all the teams in a group ended up with three ties?
Goals scored, either on a group basis or comparing pairs of teams, so a 1-1 ranks higher than a 0-0. After that, a drawing of lots.
Pretty sure the last team to advance with three draws was Chile in 1998. Since then, every team has had at least one win.
Interesting in this one to see how Belgium turn out. They’re probably the least impressive team to have two wins, but they don’t need to get out of second gear for this one.
KG
@Punchy: Algeria advances with a win. Russia likely advances with a win (if Belgium and South Korea draw or if Belgium wins). South Korea needs a draw between Algeria and Russia, and to win by four. South Korea also gets through with a three goal win and a Russian win.
We are likely playing Belgium… unless Algeria and South Korea win. In which case we play Algeria and the Germans invade Belgium.
dmsilev
@japa21: And if that doesn’t work (say that all games were 1-1), the final tie-breaker is “draw lots”. Would truly suck to be on the team that missed out advancing because you lost out on a coin flip.
Amir Khalid
@justawriter:
If need be, there would be a drawing of lots to decide who goes through. And if any of the draws looked suspicious, one would hope the disciplinary committee would start sniffing around.
? Martin
Behghazi!
(Thanks, Obama!)
? Martin
@Amir Khalid: Yes, if there’s one thing we can all count on, it’s FIFA to root out any and all incidents of corruption.
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
It would suck, but it always sucks not to advance. Personally, I think you don’t really deserve to advance on three draws, so the teams that advance in that scenario should count themselves lucky rather than the teams that are eliminated counting themselves unlucky. The teams that fail to advance should blame their inability to score or prevent one more goal, which would have guaranteed an advance, rather than bad luck in drawing lots.
scav
Places that close to the equator, between the tropics can certainly assemble their seasons differently — if nothing else, consider when the sun is highest in the sky, directly overhead and they do get it directly overhead (rem, at the equator, that would be the equinox, and the sun is usually high is the sky). So the timing of highest direct energy input can not match what we’re used to closer to the poles, as if that’s all that mattered. Add in all the migrating bands of generally ascending and descending air masses that follow the sun and seasonal patterns of rainfall are similarly off-(our)-expectation. Haven’t even gotten to the complicating patterns posed by geography.
Sad geek used to love staring at climate charts and work out the probable mechanics.
Speaking of geeks and charts, was that one (chart) about combinations and advancing for the US at the NYT actually interactive and adaptable? I thought I read it was so but was a) on the wrong box to play with it and b) on another mission so didn’t attempt to put it to the test.
Amir Khalid
@? Martin:
One would hope, as I said. I know better than to expect it.
Nick
@justawriter: If I remember correctly, in 1994 there was one group that had Italy, Ireland, Norway, and one other team. At the end of match play, every team had one win, one draw, and one defeat, and every win was by 1-0. I can’t remember how they decided who advanced, but Norway went home (this was back when two third place teams got into the elimination round).
Nick
@Nick: Here is the URL — the 4th team was Mexico: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_E
Also, I was wrong about the scores — but each team did have the same number of points.
Runt
For us oldies who remember 1982, it would be sweet to see Algeria go on to meet Germany. Back then, Algeria actually beat West Germany in their first group match, but the Germans and the Austrians collaborated to send the Algerians home in a shameful match they called “The Non-Aggression Pact of Gijon”. Time for some payback at last?
Runt
@Nick:
Norway came last because we only scored one goal. The others scored two or more. And boy, was that depressing. During the time the World Cup used that format, Norway was the only team to go out after a win and a draw. I believe Bulgaria actually went to the second stage in 1986 with two goalless draws and a 1-0 loss…
mali muso
So, that was an exciting loss earlier today. A bunch of us ditched work and commandeered the top floor of a local British pub to watch the game. Can’t say that the US looked all that great, but they managed to get the job done. All things considered, I’d say we were lucky to escape with only 1 goal from Germany.
On to Belgium and S. Korea! Assuming we play Belgium next, should I be praying to Amir Khalid for some yellow cards for their key players?
dmsilev
@scav: Yes it was; you could click on various squares and different score combinations came up and so forth.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
C’mon, Algeria! Make Bob in Portland cry!
dmsilev
@? Martin: Check out Ron Fournier’s Twitter meltdown as people try to explain to him that the US advanced to the next round despite, not because, they lost today.
It started with “Trying to figure this out: If politics were like soccer, and you could advance by losing, Eric Cantor would be Speaker?” and got stupider from there.
Calouste
@Nick: That didn’t involve a coin flip. Mexico qualified first on account of having scored more goals, and Ireland beat Italy to the second spot on account of having won the game between them.
There was a drawing of lots in the 1990 World Cup, but that was between two teams (Ireland and the Netherlands) who have both qualified for the second round.
Ever since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams, there has only been one instance where the placing even went past goal difference to goals scored, the system works quite well. Or at least it does when a reasonable number of goals are scored on average. If the average is just over 2, it’s more problematic.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Dammit!
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
If Russia wins, is it too soon to make Operation Barbarossa jokes?
Runt
Oh, crap. Goodbye, Algeria…
Calouste
@dmsilev: Right wingers seem to have a rather strange relation with soccer, Ann Coultier also had a soccer related meltdown. Of course it pretty much completely stems from the “Soccer is liked by foreigners, therefore it must be disparaged” asshole attitude (a derivative of Cleek’s Law).
scav
@dmsilev: ooo, thanks! I may have to drag out correct box and explore further. complicated data and interactive charts, more geek food. Although, belgiums now, geeking later.
SRW1
@Runt:
I don’t think this is over. In contrast to the Iranians, the Algerians actually do know how to score goals.
Punchy
And Russia Putin it in the net.
Algeria’s forwards need to start russian around some more. They can Bearly win this game at this pace. It’s like they’re playing in sand.
Randinho
@gene108: Unless you’re in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana and parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the latter two mainly at night, it’s like a spring day here. I’m six hours ENE of Rio, 8 hours south of Belo Horizonte and 14 hours SSW of Salvador. It’s like a warm spring day here.
daveNYC
I’ll be rooting, barely, for Russia. We did a draft and one guy ended up with just Italy and Russia, it’d be a shame to have him eliminated so soon.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Am I correct in remembering that people were saying a few years ago that Asian teams were poised to make big strides on the world stage? Because I thought they did fairly well the last couple of World Cups and they’ve just been a disaster this year. Coming into this game, they’re a collective 0-7-4 and have been outscored 24-9.
KG
what region is Russia considered? Asia or Europe?
Runt
@SRW1:
Can you tell that I’m a pessimist? But as a Norwegian football coach memorably expressed it: “There’s hope in the hanging snore.” He was trying, unsuccessfully, to figure out the English word for a fishing line, and ended up with an anglicized version of the Norwegian word “snøre”.
ranchandsyrup
The US is well known for its proficiency in the Knockout Game.
Face
@Calouste: Who will be the first RWer to assume Algeria is an off-shoot sect of Al Queda and Al Jazeera?
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Belgium wins best hair on the strength of that afro.
pete
@dmsilev: Hey, Fornicater, a really really good baseball team loses sixty times a season …
SRW1
@KG:
Yurope.
ETA: As, by the way, are Turkey and Israel.
Calouste
@KG: Russia is Europe.
peach flavored shampoo
The US plays Belgium in their next game? Can anyone confirm?
Alex S.
@peach flavored shampoo:
Probably, but not definitely. If Algeria wins and Belgium loses, then Algeria finishes first in their group.
? Martin
@dmsilev: Yes, how could the Red Sox have won the World Series last year if they lost 2 games? If politics were baseball, Ron Paul would be serving his 4th term as President.
SRW1
@peach flavored shampoo:
If Belgium stays top of the group, which is virtually certain unless they loose to South Korea and Algeria gives Russia an allmighty spanking.
Amir Khalid
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
Ah, Marouane Fellaini. Moyes took him along from Everton to Manchester United. where they were both profoundly disappointing.
Alex S.
And just a couple of days ago I was lauding the African teams… Now Cote D’Ivoire is out, Ghana had a meltdown and Algeria is behind…
Runt
Should have been a penalty for Algeria.
Amir Khalid
@mali muso:
Sure, why not?
burnspbesq
Somewhat OT, ManU has finally managed to pry Ander Herrera out of the clutches of Athletic Bilbao.
Waiting for the Spanish tax authorities to assert that VAT is payable on the transfer fee. Which might be a technically correct position, but is one that they have never asserted on a purchase by a Spanish club.
Gin & Tonic
In other Russia news, it turns out that they are using their equivalent to Social Security trust funds to pay for the annexation of Crimea, a project which will cost from the low 30’s to somewhere around 40 $B. That’s “B”. Simply building a bridge across the Kerch strait (since there is currently no overland access) will cost $8-10B.
burnspbesq
@Amir Khalid:
With Ghana and Portugal both eliminated, it’s down to Fellaini or Jermaine Jones for the Golden Scissors.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
@Amir Khalid:
We are trying to forget that the last season ever happened.
@burnspbesq:
It looks like a great signing, but, Jesus, the Red Devils need to rebuild in the back.
burnspbesq
No Vermaelen and no Lukaku. Belgium is indeed going for the win.
SRW1
Read card against Belgium.
mali muso
@Amir Khalid: Thanks! You sure work in mysterious (quick) ways. :D
burnspbesq
Belgium’s back four is every bit as slow as Germany’s. I wonder if we might see Yedlin start on Tuesday.
gene108
@burnspbesq:
I guess it’s between Algeria’s Rai’s M’Bohl and Tim Howard for the Golden Beard…
Amir Khalid
@mali muso:
You’re welcome.
Tripod
@burnspbesq:
They’re gonna have to change up the FIFA ranking coefficients and-or World Cup seeding pots.
Roger Moore
@SRW1:
It certainly changes the complexion of things. It doesn’t put Belgium out of the game, but at least it lets South Korea back in.
Tripod
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
I wonder how much of the group results are about squad quality and climate, and how much is dealing with the jet lag for the non-American squads.
scav
@Tripod: But if we’re in a period of transition of playing styles and expectations about future play were made under the old style of play, wouldn’t they also likely be dicey?
Bob In Portland
Saurovka
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
I know that the stats show a very even game but Russia just looks a lot better than Algeria.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Tripod: If jet lag is an issue, then it’s on the teams for not traveling early enough to adjust.
SRW1
@Tripod:
For Europeans jet lag is more of a problem when traveling in the other direction and they all arrived a week and more before the tournament began in America. Some had one or two friendlies there.
The climate is another matter and may well have contributed to the dismal performance of Italy. Overall, the European teams will probably do about as well as in South Africa as far as qualification for the knock-out rounds is concerned.
There were only five European teams that qualified in 2010, which was about half of the usual number since the tournament went to the 32 teams format. That drop off was kind of masked by the fact that three of the four semi finalists in 2010 were from UEFA. Somewhat doubtful that will be the case this time.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
How is that a foul on the Algerian? They were both clutching and grabbing there.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Woo hoo!
scav
whoo hoo too!
Amir Khalid
Algeria 1-1 Russia! Needs one more so that Bob in Portland can haz a sad.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
No one else in this bar had any idea why I whooped.
Runt
That Slimani is king of the air. But Akinfeev isn’t having a very good World Cup in the Russian goal.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Amir Khalid: Doesn’t Algeria advance with a draw? The score right now is fine.
C’mon Algeria! Seize your chance to avenge 1982! (I won’t be rooting for you, but that’s the match I want.)
SRW1
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
From which Poirot concludes that you are not watching the game on a big screen in said bar.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@SRW1: I am, but no one else is paying attention. The few people here other than me are watching the Twins game.
SRW1
@Runt:
Jinxing his goalies is Capello’s specialty.
Amir Khalid
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
I want BiP to really haz a sad.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
I wonder. Does Fellaini’s hair affect his headers?
scav
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): Well, maybe there’s the WC and there’s Bob having a sad. See Troy and then see Poseidon v Odysseus (subtracting wile, of course).
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
M’Bolhi just came up big.
SRW1
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
He’ll probably have to do so a few more times. The Bear is angry.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Honestly, though, the German team I watched this morning shouldn’t have much trouble with any of these guys.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Belgium scores to add to Asia’s misery.
burnspbesq
Sooo … Presumably it will be Lukaku coming back into the Belgian attack on Tuesday, with Defour sitting out (assuming FIFA doesn’t arbitrarily and capriciously decide between now and Saturday to wipe out all the cards from the group stage).
burnspbesq
Vertonghen? Dude sux. Cannot play at all. And he scores at the World Cup.
Runt
Russia needs a goal, and they take off Kerzhakov? Hm.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Hmmn. Do the Russians realize that they should kick the ball into the box rather than over it?
scav
@burnspbesq: Lukaku?! O! to read that Lukaku has his own school of lukaku lakaku, which, I don’t know, means peering repeatedly with one’s teammates through locked bus window hoping to get lucky with goals one can buy because damned if visions of Lucky Luke don’t keep sauntering in next to Asterix.
burnspbesq
From the Guardian liveblog:
Of course. It’s not your night, South Korea. Have a nice flight home.
Bob In Portland
@Amir Khalid: Why would I root for Russia’s soccer team? I’m a Niners fan.
? Martin
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): Puny imperialist goals.
burnspbesq
@scav:
Lukaku’s play so far hasn’t exactly given Roberto Martinez reason to whip out Bill Kenright’s checkbook and try to turn last year’s loan into a permanent transfer. But neither has it given Jose Mourinho reason to think he’s the answer to Chelski’s problems up front. Dude has some career issues to work out. Let’s hope he doesn’t decide to work them out by scoring a hat trick on Tuesday.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: And what is Ukraine using to pay for their natural gas bill?
SRW1
Jebus, the Russians don’t even manage Hail Marry crosses into the Algerian box.
burnspbesq
Wilmots is an idjit. Why risk your best player by bringing him on for three minutes when the opposition is going to be hacking anything that moves and is wearing red, in increasingly desperate attempts to get the ball back for one last try.
SRW1
And another underdog qualified!
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Bye bye, Russia!
Runt
Yes! Two African teams in the second round. Not too bad.
Amir Khalid
@Bob In Portland:
Doesn’t everyone root for their country’s football team?
scav
@burnspbesq: My comment is entirely based on the tragic collision of the name with a brain full of tika taka, unlocking parked buses (itself already a collision site), random fragments of Lookyloos, and allusions to French / Belgium BDs.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Of the 16 teams moving on I can root for seven of them, so I’m feeling pretty good.
Bob In Portland
@Amir Khalid: Who you rooting for here?
Sorry you can’t tell the difference between a sporting event and foreign policy, but that’s the way they like it at Foggy Bottom. Go team go! Did your team score in Saurovka?
I’m an American. Did you root for America in Vietnam? Go team go!
Bob In Portland
@Amir Khalid: Why do you give a shit about me? I watched the US-Portugal game but I haven’t seen any others. It’s not that big a deal for me. I hope you haz a happy. The US demonstrated how you can succeed when you fail (just like in Iraq). Tim Lincecum pitched a no-hitter yesterday. A giraffe kissed Patrick Willis at the SF Zoo. Ukrainian fascists are apparently doing what fascists do, and you get sore because I mentioned it. Are you down with sending a half billion to ISIS et al? Rooting for the grand caliphate? Do they have a team in the World Cup?