I’m guessing Argentina and Bosnia are likely to go through. Share your thoughts!
Reader Interactions
133Comments
Comments are closed.
by Randinho| 133 Comments
This post is in: Sports
I’m guessing Argentina and Bosnia are likely to go through. Share your thoughts!
Comments are closed.
icedfire
I wish Bosnia could go through, but they’re already eliminated…
SRW1
After what happened to them against Argentina, I feel compelled to root for the Iranians.
Also too, the Mullahs in Iran apparently aren’t particularly fond of this satanic running after the round thing containing a pig bladder. I wouldn’t mind to see the bearded ones getting their pious reservations shoved some dark place by the Iranian people.
Amir Khalid
Argentina and Bosnia?
Randinho
@icedfire: As I said before as my internet access was spotty I created and scheduled all the open threads through the group stage after the first game.
Amir Khalid
@SRW1:
Besides not being made of leather anymore, modern balls have a vegan-friendly (and quite halal) latex bladder.
Morzer
@Randinho:
Blame Democratic voters who interfered in your primary for your Miss.
Morzer
I want Nigeria and Iran to win today, although I accept that this is implausible.
If only I knew an internet deity with an interest in soccer….
Origuy
@SRW1: Do they still use pig bladder for the balls? I thought they were all synthetic. The mullahs can find reasons to disapprove of anything.
SRW1
@Amir Khalid:
Amir, you had to destroy it!? I know that there’s no pig bladders in footballs any more. It was a historical sleight of hand to make the swipe work.
Randinho
@Morzer: I blame Obama.
Morzer
@Amir Khalid:
A million teabaggers just cried out in rage about soccer sharia.
Morzer
@Randinho:
It’s a Messi situation, no doubt about it.
SRW1
@Origuy:
Nope, cf Amir’s comment.
raven
NIGERIA!!!
Amir Khalid
@SRW1:
The mullahs in Iran oppose all types of having fun as impious, not just football.
Randinho
Argentina’s defense is crap. Absolute crap.
raven
Cool NYT piece on the World’s Ball.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Uhm, isn’t soccer supposed to be a low scoring game?
Amir Khalid
@Randinho:
But two goals in two consecutive minutes are pleasing to the eye of a capricious deity.
Morzer
From despair to joy for a million wealthy widows of finance ministers – and it only took 60 seconds.
Come to think of it, this really is the match of the financially dubious – internet scammers versus defaulters.
SRW1
@raven:
I wouldn’t mind Nigeria progressing as the winner of the group by doing one on Argentina either. Just not a defensive draw in which nobody wants to risk anything.
ETA: Well, that concern was apparently unfounded.
Tractarian
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Herzegovina to advance, Bosnia to be eliminated.
Randinho
@Amir Khalid: No argument, I just don’t know why people rave about them, This is exactly the same problem they had in 2010: a weak group, shoddy defense and an exit in the quarterfinals. I predicted the exit in 2010 and I feel the same way now.
scav
@Morzer: I dread to think of the unnumbered wealthy foreigners with no near relations who died in traffic accidents right then when all other drivers lost control while cheering. tragic.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Is there any way for Messi to move on while the rest of the Argentine team goes home?
Morzer
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
Uruguay would bite off your hand if you offered to get Messi on their team.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Morzer: No, no. I just want to see Leo Messi on the field all by himself, taking on the entire Swiss team in the round of 16. I figure that he’d lose that game 3-2.
Morzer
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
What if he were sent off for a reckless tackle after 30 seconds? Could he come on as his own replacement? Would he get 10 “lives”?
Joel
I thought Bosnia was eliminated (2 losses).
SRW1
Randinho, how much do you think Arsene Wenger has been thanking the football gods that Liverpool refused his £40M+1 offer for Suarez last year?
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Morzer: If he were sent off in the first minute, the Swiss would probably win 5-1.
Randinho
@SRW1: A lot, as am I!
@Joel: See comment number 4 above.
Omnes Omnibus
@Morzer: Speaking of Uruguay, shouldn’t Suarez be on their rugby team?
Alex S.
Who’s worse, Argentina without Messi or Brazil without Neymar? Those teams look good on paper, but they are probably easy to beat for a really good team.
Amir Khalid
Nigeria have good news from the other match: Bosnia are 1-0 up.
Randinho
@Alex S.: I think Brazil has a deeper squad and they are much better on defense. Felipão got a lot of heat in 2002 for this, but everyone shut up when they won, even if it wasn’t all beautiful.
dmsilev
Very off topic, but TPM just now:
burnspbesq
I suppose this was inevitable.
http://www.espnfc.com/fifa-world-cup/story/1910428/norwegian-bettor-cashes-in-on-luis-suarezs-bite
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Messi 2-1 Nigeria
Alex S.
If England had a player with Messi’s ability, they would be where Argentina is now.
dmsilev
@burnspbesq:
The real question is why anyone would offer 175-1 odds on something like that. Given the ‘who had bitten other players before’ part, I would have thought maybe 10-1 or so would have been more reasonable.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@dmsilev: Could I have placed a bet that Suarez wouldn’t bite anyone?
Morzer
@Amir Khalid:
Not looking good for Hercegovina then.
catclub
Non-sports important things: Aereo shot down by the USSC. (Because its success would inconvenience some big players.)
Argentina’s bankruptcy battles with Vulture Fund will continue.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Argentina has scored five goals so far. Messi has four of them and really should have an assist on the other one, since he took the free kick that a Bosnian put into his own net.
Edit: In ice hockey, that fifth goal would have been given to Messi. He is the only Argentine to score in the tournament.
SRW1
Things are shaping up as if the MVP for this WC (and subsequently possibly also the ballon d’or for 2015) is going to be between Messi and Neymar.
Alex S.
@Randinho:
You’re probably right. I almost said that Mexico has made a better impression than Brazil, but then I remembered that Brazil was the better team there, except for Ochoa.
Morzer
I thought Nigeria kept pace with Argentina pretty well – until their defense decided that committing stupid fouls in a dangerous area was a viable strategy.
Morzer
@Alex S.:
I like what I have seen of Mexico better than the rather stodgy Brazilians.
Karen in GA
Forgive my stupidity, but I don’t really follow soccer or the World Cup at all. A friend of mine was complaining about how every time the World Cup is held in South America, a South American team wins, and said it was suspicious. I, OTOH, would be suspicious if it were the same country winning all the time, but not the same continent.
Is there some weird continent-wide fix in, where all of the countries south of Panama become one big corrupt hive mind when they start kicking a ball around? Or, as I’m inclined to believe, is my friend just nuts?
Morzer
@Karen in GA:
Your friend might want to think about home advantage(s) (lots of loyal fans, lifting the team, for one) plus the benefits of being more used to the climate. You see the same phenomenon in the NFL when warm state teams like e.g the Dolphins come up to play at Foxboro in the snow.
burnspbesq
If the current 2-1 scoreline between ARG and NGA holds, and Iran comes back to win 2-1 over BIH, we are looking at a coin flip to determine who advances. Nigeria and Iran would be equal on points, GD, and goals scored, and the head-to-head result was a draw.
“I don’t want to start any blasphemous rumours” etc.
SRW1
Yep, this Argentina defense really doesn’t look up for the coming rounds.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Karen in GA: Keep in mind that the last time it was in South America was 1978. Before that it was 1962, 1950, and 1930. So the total sample size is 4. (Granted, the two times it was held in Mexico, a South American team won, so if you include Central America it’s 6 of 6.)
And, of course, a European team has won 9 of the 10 times the tournament has been held in Europe. It just appears that there is a huge home continent advantage. Early on, the travel probably had a lot to do with that.
Morzer
@burnspbesq:
2-2! Lovely pair of goals for Musa.
UPDATE: 3-2 Argentina!
Two sides without defenses does make for a fun game.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@burnspbesq: Argentina’s defense comes through to prevent that scenario, unless you think Iran can score its first three goals of the tournament in the second half.
SRW1
@Karen in GA:
Ask your friend how he explains that the opposite is also true, Every time the WC is in Europe a European team wins.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Morzer: Huh. You posted that about four minutes before the ESPN Radio broadcast got to the third Argentine goal. That’s some tape delay.
scav
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): I was thinking the travel / time difference too would likely play a solid role — concentration, body-clocks and related cycles. but I know zip about how long teams had to acclimatize then, or now for that matter, although they’re probably juggling with more (if still incomplete) info now.
Randinho
@SRW1: Except Sweden in 1958.
Amir Khalid
@SRW1:
Almost every time. in 1958, Brazil beat hosts Sweden 5-2 to lift their first title.
Cacti
@Karen in GA:
3 of Brazil’s 5 World Cup championships were in Sweden, The United States, and Japan.
If one is going to cry conspiracy, I’d say ask why England and France’s only championships came in the years that they were the host country.
Karen in GA
@Morzer: @Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): @SRW1: Yeah, on its face the argument was ridiculous. It’s just that I was so certain that it was stupid that I figured I should probably check. Because being certain regarding a topic you know little about — well, if I were comfortable with that I’d be wearing a tricorn hat with teabags hanging from it.
Amir Khalid
@Morzer:
Strikers, even the bitey ones, are more pleasing to this deity’s eye than defenders.
scav
Other game is waving, Hey! still playing here!
burnspbesq
Bosnia now up two on Iran.
Iran doesn’t look like a side that’s built for miraculous comebacks.
Karen in GA
@Cacti: I did actually try pointing out that South American teams have also won when playing elsewhere. His response was to temporarily pivot, and argue that it was weird that only South America and Europe have won. I pointed out that “Hey, look, countries where soccer is huge keep winning this soccer tournament” wasn’t the most stunning observation ever made.
Did it get me anywhere? Of course not.
Randinho
@Morzer: Stodgy? Brazil has 47 shots in three games with 36 on target. Mexico has 34 shots in three games with 15 on target.
pete
@Karen in GA: Instant delusions of expertise are all too common. Someone pointed out yesterday that every time the World Cup comes around, there are ignorant Americans trying to “fix” the rules, to make the world’s favorite game much more betterer. (Admittedly, some rule changes are being considered and might help, but a certain familiarity with the game is rather an important prerequisite.)
SRW1
@Randinho: @Amir Khalid:
I take my lumps.
burnspbesq
Messi subbed out. Looks like both Argentina and Nigeria have put it on cruise control.
Belafon
@Karen in GA: Well, no other country has ever won the Superbowl.
smintheus
@Karen in GA: To be fair to your friend, the 1978 World Cup was pretty obviously fixed by host Argentina. That Final, with a crooked ref handpicked by the Argentine dictatorship, is just about the most notorious game in WC history.
Steeplejack
@Randinho:
When is a shot considered “on target” (or “on goal”)? When the keeper has to handle it or it bounces off the post?
scav
Also, as there is a slight lull, Request for info. I can’t figure out shirt numbers. Sometimes they seem arbitrary (getting retired after players die, but being hauled back as so few numbers allowed) and sometimes they seem to refer to positions (esp 1 and 10). What vital clue am I missing? ta.
Roger Moore
@SRW1:
I think they’re more worried about the immodest clothes people wear while playing than anything. AFAIK, even quite strict interpretations of Islam don’t have any restriction on sports, but it does require both men and women to dress modestly. The mullahs don’t like anyone to run around in shorts and short sleeved shirts.
Amir Khalid
@Steeplejack:
When it’s on its way in if not saved. If it bounces off the post, it wasn’t on target. Obviously, there’s a judgement call to be made if the ball is saved/parried before it crosses the goal line.
SRW1
@scav:
You aren’t missing clues. Shirt numbers used to be according to position:
1=goalie
9=central striker
10=’quaterback’
etc.
Then teams could pick freely from numbers 23 and lower and the numbers were permanent for a tournament.
These days players can pick freely from any number lower than 100 IIRC and the numbers stay with players during a tournament.
Some players love to pick according the positional system, with the number 10 (the playmaker) in particular demand.
ETA: Apparently, at this WC the rule of numbers 23 and lower is still in force.
SRW1
@Roger Moore:
I admit that I was attempting to be facetious there.
Roger Moore
@Karen in GA:
There is a big advantage for teams from the host continent, but the suspicion is that it’s being better adapted to the climate rather than some kind of homerism. This tournament is a good example; the European teams seem to have much more trouble with the heat and humidity than the American teams.
Steeplejack
@Amir Khalid:
Thanks. I hadn’t seen (or noticed) the distinction between “shots” and “shots on goal” before. It seems like in the EPL season they just note the latter in the halftime stats, but of course I could be wrong.
scav
@SRW1: Oh phew. Nicely complicated and I’m no more insane than usual, or at least not alone in my insanity. So numbers aren’t permanent between tournaments? what about seasons? I can see that the position numbering would fall apart a bit with substitutions and then utterly with the new styles of play.
Amir Khalid
Four goals in the Bosnia-Iran match, five in the Argentina-Nigeria match. I am well pleased.
askew
I am rooting for Colombia or the US to pull off an upset and win the whole thing. If they can’t, go Argentina or Costa Rica or some other surprise.
So, I decided to finally stop bitching about Hillary and talk about why I am backing O’Malley for 2016 (yes it is too early), if anyone is interested.
Morzer
@Randinho:
Shots on target tells you nothing in itself. It’s like relying on field goal attempts to measure the quality of an NFL team. To me Brazil look ponderous and largely unimaginative.
SRW1
@scav:
The practice is that shirt numbers are assigned anew at the beginning of every season or tournament, though in clubs the players that were there the previous season usually keep their numbers. On occasion there is drama because a new star player has been signed who thinks he’s only good in his preferred number and the previous wearer of that number has to hand it over.
Patrick
@Karen in GA:
A European team has won 9 out of 10 teams when it was held in Europe. A South American team has won 6 out of 6 times when it has been held in South America.
A South American team also won when it was held here in the US and in Asia, while a European team won when it was held in Africa.
I think it all simply comes down to home field advantage, getting used to different hours, different food (the tourney takes a month to play), etc etc.
Captain C
@Belafon: And only twice, out of more than 100, has a non-U.S. team won the World Series.
Captain C
@Amir Khalid: In other words, basically like in hockey it only counts as a shot if the goalie has to stop it from going in; otherwise, even if it hits the posts after beating the goalie, it’s not counted as a “shot” (though possibly as a “chance”).
Captain C
@Amir Khalid: In other words, basically like in hockey it only counts as a shot if the goalie has to stop it from going in; otherwise, even if it hits the posts after beating the goalie, it’s not counted as a “shot” (though possibly as a “chance”).
Roger Moore
@SRW1:
In American sports, it’s traditional for the star player to offer bribes- usually in the form of fancy items rather than straight cash- to the guy whose number he wants. The items can get amazingly expensive; I think I’ve heard of 6 figure prices. I think the size of the bribe is as much about establishing the star as a big shot as it is about what it takes to convince the other guy.
Mandalay
OT….the Supremes score a winner:
Pretty hard to disagree with any of that.
? Martin
@Morzer: I don’t really agree. A shot on goal is comparable to on-base percentages in baseball. They’re a measure of whether the team can execute offensively, where goals (or runs) factors in the quality of that offense and the skills of the opposing defense. They’re imperfect measures, but you have to work with what you have.
Gin & Tonic
@Roger Moore: Can you think of another case where a number becomes permanently unavailable for any player on any team, like 42?
scav
@Gin & Tonic: Life, the Universe and Everything has been made unavailable?
Morzer
@? Martin:
That’s actually the point of my field goal attempt comparison. Shots on target captures very little of how well a team executes, if anything. They include the scuffed shot that was going nowhere, the feeble header, the partial deflection etc etc. You could rack up 10-15 shots “on target” in a soccer game without ever looking like scoring.
Amir Khalid
The Guardian offers this interesting look at The Bite: what if it had happened on the street in England?
Randinho
@Morzer: Boy do I disagree with that. In the Mexico game, in which Mexico had a whopping two shots on target, Brazil had nine, and the incredible play of Ochoa was what kept El Tri in the game. Stodgy and ponderous? Hardly.
Morzer
@Randinho:
Stodgy and ponderous, for sure. Why, they couldn’t even beat a Mexican team which had only two shots on target!
And that’s before we consider that the mighty Brazil in all their creative glory managed 1 shot on target EVERY TEN MINUTES!
Morzer
@Amir Khalid:
If Suarez had bitten someone on the wrong street in England he’d have been lucky to get away with an extended spell in hospital. The Brits don’t have many guns on the street, but they do have knives.
Tommy
@Amir Khalid: I don’t know why exactly but I’d much rather you punch me in the face then bite me. I have a feeling FIFA is going to destroy the guy.
Morzer
@Tommy:
I would have thought that being bitten carried a higher risk of some fairly nasty infections. I am not saying Suarez is actually rabid, or arguing that being punched in the face is fun, but any time you risk introducing alien material into the bloodstream, it’s not a good situation.
Belafon
Beohner is going to sue Obama. And his reason (Daily Kos link):
Randinho
@Morzer: Don’t like that stat? Consider that FIFA on their website parses statistics in even more detail. One stat was for dangerous attacks. Brazil in its three games has had 126 dangerous attacks, while Mexico has had 107. Stodgy é sua mãe! ;-)
Morzer
@Belafon:
Interesting. A lawsuit based on “Just because”.
scav
@Tommy: I wonder. Once business concerns enter and they’re weighing PR against PR in a “court” as ethically dodgy as FIFA seems to be? OK, wait, I know nothing about the different internal levels/functions of FIFA, this islet might be less seamy then that choosing venues, but somehow I doubt the strengths of the internal walls in that org. I wouldn’t be surprised by anything. Well, outright execution, that would raise eyebrows.
Randinho
@Morzer: And Mexico had one in each half.
? Martin
@Morzer: But even with those low-quality shots, they we’re able to advance the ball to a position that the shot was possible. So their strikers might be shit, but they must have a decent midfield to even be able to get in a scoring position. With a shit midfield you’ll see them converting a high % of shots into goals, but there won’t be many shots.
And even quality shots aren’t always necessary. You put enough shots on goal and eventually the keeper will get caught out and let one by.
Amir Khalid
@Morzer:
Hardly surprising. His House caucus also wants to impeach Obama “just because”.
Tommy
@Morzer: How about it. Lets face it. They want to impeach him but don’t know how.
raven
Anybody else getting a little tired of this “go through” deal? Advance!
Morzer
@Randinho:
So, your argument is either that Mexico aren’t very good and so Brazil, who are, by your most recent statistic, pretty much comparable to them are just.. what exactly? Really good?
Or are you arguing that Mexico are brilliant and so the directly comparable Brazilian team who managed a draw with them are really rather brilliant as well?
If Croatia hadn’t been screwed by the referee, Brazil probably ends with 2 draws and a win in a relatively mediocre group.
The fact is that Brazil don’t look like a brilliant team and are not especially impressive as an attacking force. I give them points for being persistent, but I don’t see any reason to consider them special.
Tommy
@scav: I just think there is something taboo about biting people. Kind of sick. OK it is sick. And because he has done it before I think they will give him two years.
Roger Moore
@Mandalay:
It seems like a perfectly obvious ruling. Search incident to arrest is supposed to be limited to measures necessary to secure the person being arrested, like checking them for weapons and means of escape, rather than looking for evidence. It may turn up evidence- going through their pockets to look for handcuff keys may turn up a joint- but that’s not it’s legal premise. Once the phone is confiscated, it falls out of that category, and further looking through it is unnecessary as a straight security measure. As a practical matter, requiring a warrant is at most a minor procedural hassle for the police, not a serious impediment to them being able to get valuable evidence.
Morzer
@? Martin:
You can take shots from the halfway line, if you feel so inclined. The point is that shots on goal is a meaningless metric. Ask any team whether they’d rather have 30 “shots on goal” or one actual goal and you know what answer you’ll get. The key to all this is having players who can finish – and if you don’t have those you can bombard the opposition’s goal all day and every day and you’ll still end up with a big old handful of nothing. No team ever won a game by ten shots on goal to seven.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
Hockey copied the idea and retired Gretzky’s 99 across the league.
D58826
@Belafon: In another interview he assured the nation that it has NOTHING to do with impeachment. By the way I have two bridges that Chris Christie is trying to sell, cheap.
Morzer
@raven:
How about “leveraging creative synergies to achieve a progressive solution”?
raven
raven
@Morzer: :)
Actually I first became aware of this term when watching Doc Martin. He’s always calling people into his office with “come through”. Whacky Limey’s!
Randinho
@Morzer: It’s not a fact; it’s an opinion. The stats don’t lie. They attacked persistently and scored seven goals in the group stage. As for the Croatia game, bad calls happen all the time and can change the complexion of the game, but if Croatia won both of those disputed calls, there’s no reason to believe that Brazil couldn’t have scored again. Mexico squeaked out a tie with Brazil because of Ochoa.
Have to agree to disagree.
Morzer
@Randinho:
FWIW, the NYT thinks Brazil had 8 meaningless shots on goal to Mexico’s 4. Same result 0-0.
Amir Khalid
@Tommy:
I wouldn’t care for either, myself. As far as I know the FIFA laws against violent conduct don’t distinguish between bites and punches. This sidesteps, rightly I think, the incidental question of which type of attack is more dangerous than another.
Morzer
@Randinho:
Of course stats lie. They lie to us because we make them. Haven’t you ever heard of Paul Ryan’s various plans? This is getting beyond ridiculous.
scav
@Tommy: Just expressing a distrust of the ‘court’ where the decision is to be made, comparing it to a whirligig with different objectives, many of them tangent at best to justice.
Roger Moore
@? Martin:
I disagree. Getting on base actually represents two positive achievements in baseball. Yes, getting on base gives the batter a chance to score, which is why it’s comparable to a shot on goal. But getting on base also means the batter did not make an out, which extends the inning and gives his teammates more chances to do things. In that sense it really isn’t comparable to anything in time-based sports, because they don’t have the same idea of an indefinitely extensible chance to stay on the attack.
Randinho
@Morzer: If you don’t attempt shots you don’t score, unless your plan is to rely on own goals. If you don’t hit shots on target you don’t score goals. Why else would Ochoa be given Man of the Match for that game.
I went by FIFA’s and ESPN’s stats. In any event, The Netherlands will probably crush the Mexicans and Brazil will probably beat Chile.
As for Paul Ryan, it’s apples and oranges.
Again, agree to disagree.
Tommy
@Roger Moore: And it changes another thing. Because the base runner could steal or be moved to another base with a bunt, it changes how the pitcher pitches. Oh and the defensive can’t do the “shift” which seems so popular today. You’ve got to cover the bases with a runner on.
Patrick
@Belafon:
Is he going to sue George W Bush as well then since Bush had many more executive actions than Obama has? Or is this yet another example of governing while having the wrong skin color?
Cacti
@Morzer:
If Croatia hadn’t been screwed by the referee, Brazil probably ends with 2 draws and a win in a relatively mediocre group.
And if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
Cacti
@Roger Moore:
I disagree. Getting on base actually represents two positive achievements in baseball. Yes, getting on base gives the batter a chance to score, which is why it’s comparable to a shot on goal.
I would say OBP is more analogous to time of possession. In a timed sport like soccer, you have to possess the ball to create scoring chances, and any time you have it, that means the other side doesn’t.
Mandalay
@Roger Moore:
Right, but the police will have to justify that warrant. The days of cops pulling over a motorist and then casually embarking on a fishing trip on the motorist’s cell phone are numbered, and rightly so.
Mandalay
@Roger Moore:
Right, but the police will have to justify that warrant. The days of cops pulling over a motorist and then casually embarking on a fishing trip on the motorist’s cell phone are numbered, and rightly so.