Look, it's @PFTCommenter leading the analytics revolution w/ a new draft value chart http://t.co/CA2S77kZcm pic.twitter.com/8rkcRVUCVn
— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) May 5, 2014
Do you guys even want to talk about the NFL Draft?
If so, how does this WaPo article read to you?
… Put simply: The NFL would avoid a major public-relations headache if, at any point this weekend, a team uses a draft pick — seen as perhaps the league’s most valuable currency — on [Michael] Sam… If he goes undrafted or isn’t even signed as a free agent, the NFL’s message of progress and preparedness for a gay player becomes a more difficult sell.
In February, a Sports Illustrated reporter wrote that one NFL general manager predicted Sam wouldn’t be drafted. This week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel polled 21 scouts about where they’d be comfortable selecting Sam; five said they wouldn’t use a draft pick on him, and an additional seven said they wouldn’t even sign him to a free-agent contract. None was willing to take him before the fifth round. Even the betting site Bovada has listed heavy odds that Sam will not be taken among the top 125 players, or near the end of the fourth round…
*******************
Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the evening?
Joel
Tim Tebow is an interesting comparison for Sam:
Both are guys with an extensive resume of collegiate success but whose games do not translate (physically) to the NFL. Tebow obviously had more college success, but plenty of scouts felt that he had no chance of prolonged success in the league and they were ultimately proven right. Sam is too slow for linebacker and too small for the line, but ‘tweeners like him have found a share of success in the NFL. Some of the most famous examples are guys like Tedy Bruschi.
Anyways, I have no idea what kind of player he’ll be, but usually guys with his resume end up picked towards the end of the draft.
jeffreyw
I will dodge this draft. Thread needs moar pizza!
ranchandsyrup
Michael Sam and Johnny Football are tribalism rorschach tests in this draft.
Schlemizel
the league is full of 7th round hall-of-famers that have displaced 1st round can’t misses. I don’t think these useless assholes could identify the keys to success in the NFL if is were shoved up their tight end. This is an area Sabermetrics should look into.
Meanwhile the rapists & thugs will be collecting CTE on college campuses in hopes of the big payday. My apologies to the decent men who play football but damn I am tired of society idolizing really bad people to the point of ignoring and forgiving rape & murder simply because they can throw a little ball or knock the shit out of someone.
Glocksman
Personally, I’d love to see Sam picked up as either a Colt or a Steeler.
Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t getting any younger and Sam could make a real difference over the long term with his ‘intangibles’, as the writers put it.
Ditto with the Colts.
SiubhanDuinne
@jeffreyw:
Broccoli, my all-time fave veg (tied for first place with carrots and spinach). That looks SO GOOD.
Dee Loralei
@SiubhanDuinne: Definitively proving once and for all, that you are not George H.W. Bush……
So, you got that going for you!
I’m playing Texas Hold ’em tonight with my son in a free bar league. Can’t wait!
ETA: the bar isn’t free the card game and betting implements are. We have a good deal, I buy him 2 drinks and he drives me home, 3 hours or so later.
F
Mom on Krazy Kalifornian Holocaust assignments:
Common Core!
Villago Delenda Est
Snore.
The Draft is a highly overrated publicity stunt that produces as many washouts as standouts.
Cassidy
@Villago Delenda Est: But it does tell you how particular teams are thinking.
Violet
Don’t care about the draft. Always do find it interesting to see the faces of the young recruits trying to look super excited about being drafted by some team that never wins and is located in some part of the country they really don’t want to live in.
SiubhanDuinne
@Dee Loralei:
Well, for one thing, I never parented a war-mongering imbecile.
Calouste
First thing that came to my mind see that chart is that every team picks 7 new players for a roster of, is it, 45?
Or in other words, the average career expectancy for these guys is only about 6.5 years.
NotMax
Awful lot of hoopla to play concussion r0ulette.
Morzer
@SiubhanDuinne:
Don’t give up so easily. There’s always adoption!
ranchandsyrup
@Calouste: 53 counting the practice squad. Avg. career is less than 4 years. Pension vests with 4 years of service.
Morzer
@Calouste:
53 players per roster – and not every team has 7 picks. You also have to figure in compensatory extra picks, plus UDFA.
danimal
@Joel: The funny thing, and I’m not a Tim Tebow fan, is that Tebow did in fact have success in the NFL. I’m not sure it would have lasted, but his Broncos team made the playoffs (even beating Cole’s Steelers in the first round, IIRC). It was the locker room disruption and incessant publicity as much as a shaky left arm that killed Tebow’s career.
I don’t think this analysis bodes well for Michael Sam, though I hope some team at least invites him to camp. He deserves an opportunity.
Dave
@Calouste:
I’d swear I’d heard somewhere that for your typical player, career expectancy is something like 3 years. They can pick up undrafted free agents, so 6.5 is definitely high.
ETA: Wow, you people are fast.
Dee Loralei
@SiubhanDuinne: Neither have I! Yet. But as Morzer said, there is always adoption.
Cermet
@Schlemizel: And most all wallstreet investors and bankers, with almost no exceptions, are far, far worse than any of these kids (these wallstreet monsters cause harm to many tens of thousands and most likely even are responsible for many deaths. These people are lionized and paid far more than even the #1 pick.)
Villago Delenda Est
@Cassidy: Or not thinking. Depends on the team.
Schlemizel
@Cermet:
exactly how does that change that we allow rapists and murderers to live freely and commit their crimes on our college campuses simply because of their athletic talent? In my world we can be against both at the same time.
Bob In Portland
Be curious to see who the Niners pick up for receivers. They’ve needed a deep threat for awhile, and they never really replaced the guy who went to Tennessee last year. That tight end.
Cassidy
@Villago Delenda Est: So, I see you’re familiar with my hometown team, the Jaguars.
Villago Delenda Est
@Cassidy: I’ve seen management teams come and go with the Seahawks. Right now, they’re a thinking bunch. In the past, and perhaps in the future…not so much.
ranchandsyrup
@Bob In Portland: I hear that their entire draft board says either Putin or Ivan Drago.
Read it on RT.
Morzer
@Bob In Portland:
You do know that the CIA created alien supersoldier TE Rob Gronkowski as an experiment for our liberal fascist future?
WaterGirl
@jeffreyw: I’m really hungry, waiting for my dinner to finish cooking, and boy do I want that pizza. I’m not that far from you, do you deliver? Willing to stay up late for deliveries.
Josie
@ranchandsyrup: Beetlejuice
ranchandsyrup
@Josie: :( you’re right.
WaterGirl
I do not understand the pretty and colorful chart up top. Is there a kind soul here who can explain it to me?
Kylroy
Said it before and I’ll say it again – Patriots should draft Sam. And if he slips to the seventh round, I’m quite sure they’ll see he’s the most valuable player left at that point.
Because as much as I hate his guts, Belichek is about winning uber alles. If Sam is available late, the Pats need defense, and Sam has a great deal of talent – plus the Patriots made a success out of similar tweeter Bruschi. And Belichek’s iron-fist management means that any reporter (or heaven forfend, player or coach) will have him come down on them like the wrath of Satan if they try to make his sexually an issue.
Villago Delenda Est
@ranchandsyrup: Also, too…HODOR!
Pogonip
@Morzer: Hey! He’s being good; don’t poke at him when he’s being good. This is Balloon Juice; don’t you guys have pets? If not, here’s the basic principle of training–you REWARD the behavior you want to ENCOURAGE (in this case, refraining from rants about Ukraine). So knock it off unless he starts acting up again.
I can’t leave you kids alone for a minute. We really need John’s mom in here.
Kylroy
@WaterGirl: He’s making blanket statements about all players taken in each round. The comments are for rounds 1-7, left to right.
Pogonip
@Villago Delenda Est: Hodor!
rustynailer
My favorite NFL draft was that year when Minnesota wasn’t ready to draft in the time they were allotted so they were skipped over a couple of times. I think it was even the 1st round. How any of the top brass retained their jobs after that, I’ll never know. After that the entire world collectively thought.. “Aha! Now we know why the Vikings are 0-4 in Superbowl games”.
ulee
@ranchandsyrup: Yes, it’s truly a sad situation. From college to a few hundred thousand dollars a year, for only an average employment of three years. Sorry these jocks that we’re overvalued as students in high school moved on to be overvalued in college, then used up and discarded in the nfl. They should try being masons, house painters, or pavers. Lots of jobs out there kick the shit out of you, for a lot less pay.
Trollhattan
Confess I’d forgotten who Michael Sam was. IIRC he was a solid player but back when in the news, wasn’t projected as a day 1 pick. Beyond that I’ve got nuttin’.
My guys pick at #32 and I’ll be surprised if they don’t trade down to round 2, unless somebody unexpected falls into their laps. They don’t have picks in two later rounds and I’m sure would love to plug at least one of those holes. They’re more active than most teams via free agency and walk-ons.
MomSense
I want to eat dinner but I don’t want to cook.
ranchandsyrup
@Villago Delenda Est: Hodor is an intriguing prospect. He scored a zero on the Wonderlic but he’s got that prototypical toughness. Perfect for the Raiders.
Morzer
@Pogonip:
Have you missed his rants from today? Including dark musings on how sad it would be if John banned him? They really have to be read to be believed.
Sentence first, verdict afterwards!
ranchandsyrup
@ulee: Bonus: they shave a couple of decades off of their lifespan.
Pogonip
@WaterGirl: Forget it, Jake, it’s football.
Trollhattan
BTW, somebody’s looking for a wedding reception band.
http://www.tickld.com/x/this-craigslist-ad-was-removed
Morzer
@ranchandsyrup:
I’ve heard that the Browns are going to bet all their chips on Robert Baratheon. They love his strong arm and great work ethic.
ulee
@ranchandsyrup: Are you talking about masons or pavers?
Kylroy
@Trollhattan: He’s actually an awesome player – his primary problem is that he’s a college lineman too small to play line in the NFL. He could be an awesome linebacker, but that would require him to pick up pass protection skills he doesn’t currently have. Without them, he’s at best a niche player who’s only in a couple of very specialized formations (I.E. ones where the defensive coordinator might ad well hold up a giant neon sign saying “WE’RE BLITZING”.)
He could work out, but it’ll involve him being NFL-adequate at something he hasn’t had to do before.
Billgerat
I’m ready to bitch again about the Seahawk’s draft picks, like I did with the Russell Wilson pick, and be surprised again that the team knows better than me on how to draft.
Trollhattan
@ranchandsyrup:
Hodor best left tackle prospect since Walter Jones. Any decent running back get 2000-yard season behind Hodor, ga-rhun-tee.
Hodor!
ranchandsyrup
@Morzer: He’ll be a favorite in the
DawgDirewolf Pound.Schlemizel
@Morzer:
Yes, some behavior is so abhorrent that it removes the benefit of doubt from its originator.
ranchandsyrup
@ulee: lulz. well played.
Pogonip
@Morzer: I did miss the rants, but even so, at this moment they don’t count. You reward the correct behavior, no matter how fleeting. Trainers differ on whether you punish or ignore the wrong behavior. I’ve always had quicker results concentrating on the correct behavior, because there are a zillion things the dog can do wrong, but only one way he can “Sit” when told to. (Good boy! Who’s a good boy?)
ranchandsyrup
@Trollhattan: Heh indeedy. He’ll be like Robert Gallery, but he can actually play. He bench pressed 225 lbs 400 times at the Combine in Indy.
Trollhattan
@Billgerat:
The Pete and John show produces more head-scratching moments than a lice outbreak, but they’re sure a huge relief after the Timmy show.
Morzer
@ranchandsyrup:
I have heard that the Raiders are intending to trade up and take Drogon as the core of their dragon-fire offense. Unfortunately, there has been an issue with Drogon and alleged consumption of illegal substances, including at least one GM who wanted to “tame” him with a overly restrictive contract. The 49ers have brought Drogon in for a visit, but it’s not certain whether they feel able to handle Aldon Smith With Scales.
Morzer
@Pogonip:
Well, you can do it your way, but I am going to stick with the good old-fashioned methods. The beatings will continue until content improves.
Y’all have a nice day now.
Trollhattan
@ranchandsyrup:
They’d best leave the D-line play calls to somebody else, though.
“They’ve shifted the tight end up to the line, what do we do?”
“Hodor.”
ulee
@ranchandsyrup: I’m all for unions. I think a good football player should make the same as a good electrician who should make the same as a good CEO. Soak the rich. It’ll solve pretty much everything.
Pogonip
@Morzer: *chortle*. I have a “The beatings will continue until morale improves” T-shirt.
Just Some Fuckhead
Great, leave him for the Ravens.
Pogonip
@ulee: Is there such a thing as a good CEO nowadays?
ranchandsyrup
@Morzer: The NFL Rules Committee is going to shut that down. Sorry Forty-Whiners fans.
LOL Re: Aldon Smith.
@ulee: I could live with that.
Schlemizel
@rustynailer:
The guy who built those 0-4 teams was fired because he wanted to buy 10% of the team. He went to the CUbs & built a team that made it to the NLCS finals, he was hired away by the Saints where he built teams that played for championships. Meanwhile the Vikings came under control of a lawyer who wrote a deal that paid HIM a million a year from the sale of private suites. He screwed the owner out of the team and produced a 3-13 season and a string of embarrassments like that. He actually traded UP to pick a guy tagged to be a 3rd rounder in the first round. He was finally replace by a guy experience was as the Pillsbury doughboy – it was THAT guy that made the screw up you talk about. They had a shister used car salesman as their owner & he bilked them real good. They are now owned by a real estate crook (had to find a step down from lawyer). who has a management team well suited to handling the jr-sr prom IF they had oversight.
Trollhattan
It’s good to be Richard Sherman: $57M, $40M guaranteed.
Pogonip
@Trollhattan: The “Hodor” part of that was more comprehensible to me than the stuff about the tight end.
Hodor!
Morzer
@ranchandsyrup:
Commissioner Podrick Payne has expressed a desire to be “more species inclusive” in the NFL. The 49ers probably shouldn’t count their dragons before they hatch, but this case could go either way.
ulee
Tax these bastards, or we can gather in the village square and we’ll address the matter there.
Pogonip
The Newsmax headlines at the bottom of my screen include “Fox News Often Stands Alone.”
With good reason, one might add.
Morzer
@ulee:
Given that Amazon now owns the village square, we’d have to sign an agreement to pay Bezos 70% of the revenue resulting from any such discussions.
Pogonip
@ulee: Villago has a standing reservation.
Roger Moore
@danimal:
The Broncos had success with Tebow at quarterback, but that was mostly because their defense was playing well. Tebow was a terrible passer, and his running didn’t really make up for it. He got the credit for the team doing better because they happened to go on a winning streak when he was made QB, but they scored at almost exactly the same rate with him as they had without him.
jeffreyw
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks! This is my favorite pizza, today. Roasted garlic mornay with pecorino.
Mart
@Trollhattan: Sam is the SEC co-defensive player of the year. That is a big deal, and normally a ticket to being a first rounder. With his size/speed issues he was projected as a third rounder. After he stepped into that openly gay stuff, many scouts now do not know if he even deserves an invite to camp. Apparently the gay has stripped him of his strength. Strange that.
jeffreyw
@WaterGirl: You wanna drop by, I’ll leave the light on for ya. Three pieces left!
ulee
@Morzer: Well, sometimes things must be renegotiated. Michael Corleone would tell these fuckers..Here’s my offer. Nothing.
Morzer
@ulee:
Unfortunately, we know who gets to play the Michael Corleone role – and it ain’t us.
Roger Moore
@Pogonip:
Yes. You can find good CEOs in graveyards all over the country.
ulee
@Morzer: Time has a way of turning roles around. Nicolae Ceaucescu and his dear wife Elena would tell you that, if they only could.
Morzer
@ulee:
And Stalin died in his bed. What lesson should we draw from that?
ulee
@Morzer: Don’t let them die in bed. Make them own up to it while they’re standing. You’re probably right. We will probably all continue to be ripped off but maybe, history does show us, we’ll get just pissed off to rise up and level it out again. It’s a continuing struggle.
Morzer
@ulee:
It’s an interesting theory – and when you decide to act on it and tell Comrade Stalin that his time is over, I shall be behind you all way and accelerating in the opposite direction.
Quicksand
Nope.
ulee
@Morzer: I’m not going to act on anything. Geez, this country has everyone running scared.
Morzer
@ulee:
Well, what did you expect? We are objectively despicable, after all. I know this ’cause Freddie de Boner told me so.
different-church-lady
You don’t actually like football, do you?
Mnemosyne
@jeffreyw:
I wanted to make chicken and black bean chilaquiles for dinner, but now I have a stupid migraine coming on and won’t be able to stomach tomatoes. Feh. It’ll be chicken and Trader Joe’s tzatziki for me.
John Weiss
@MomSense: I feel your pain. Really. Sounds as if it’s time for one of those ‘hippy dinners’. We have ’em pretty often.
Bobby Thomson
@Violet:
And that will trade them the very next day to an even worse team.
Bobby Thomson
@Trollhattan: That was beautiful. Still wiping the tears.
Gian
@Pogonip:
Fox News is the cheese?
Apologies to the farmer in the dell and Robert Cormier
Morzer
Dragging in the NFL for a moment, I think Mike Mayock’s famous mock draft is just deranged this year.
Bonnie
Too bad the people who did that chart can’t spell.
Paul in KY
@ranchandsyrup: I thought he answered Wonderlic question 23 correctly: ‘Name the Game of Thrones character who carries Bran Stark around’