Tom Reed, Republican incumbent in NY-23, is running scared and fucking rats:
The state co-chairman of the Green Party on Friday blamed “dirty tricks’’ by a Republican for the botched effort to put two Green Party members on the November ballot for the 23rd Congressional District covering the Southern Tier and part of the Finger Lakes region.
“It’s someone in that district we have reason to believe is engaging in dirty tricks,’’ state co-chairman Michael O’Neil said. “I think that someone, from the information that was presented to me, was trying to load the November ballot in advance of whatever voter strategy they were trying to pull off. He did not get the consent of the registered Greens he was petitioning on behalf of.’’
That “someone” was a NRCC campaign operative who circulated campaign petitions. Because of the small Green registration in the district, only 75 signatures are needed to get a Green candidate certified, and Republicans decided to try to invent a spoiler when NY-23’s Greens decided not to put their local Nader on the ballot.
NY-23 was redistricted from the infamous NY-29, which was won by closeted sexual harasser and Democrat Eric Massa. It was supposed to be one of two “safe” Republican districts in Western New York, but Reed is running scared because an under-financed, inexperienced candidate named Nate Shinagawa almost beat him in 2012. This time around, he’s facing an experienced candidate named Martha Robertson who’s raised $1 million to his $1.8 million.
NY-23 is R+3, but it contains very liberal Ithaca, where the Democrats come out to vote, which might serve to dampen the usual turnout issues for Democrats. And Reed is just weak: he’s and attorney and debt collector who was supposed to be the designated loser to Massa until Massa imploded in 2010. He’s devoid of charisma, charm or visible intelligence, and his campaigns are unimaginative and lazy.
Looking at the rest of New York, it’s very reasonable to think that Democrats can pick up three seats here. In addition to NY-23, in D+1
NY-22 NY-19, Chris Gibson’s opponent, Sean Eldridge, has raised $2.3 million to Gibson’s $1.4. Then there’s NY-11, where Michael Grimm was just indicted. I’m also unaware of any Democrats in danger here. So Republicans have a reason to worry here, if not in the rest of the country.