Galluping Good News again

Via GOS and Mokuri, an update on the Gallup poll regarding the uninsured rate:

 Even within this year’s first quarter, the uninsured rate fell consistently, from 16.2% in January to 15.6% in February to 15.0% in March. And within March, the rate dropped more than a point, from 15.5% in the first half of the month to 14.5% in the second half — indicating that enrollment through the healthcare exchanges increased as the March 31 deadline approached.

Let’s assume away the “small sample size” problem for each two week period as the entire quarter had a sample of 43,500 interviews, or an average of 3,300 a week and 6600 for each half month.  This implies a margin of error of 1.2% at the 95% confidence interval. 

Gallup is picking up a massive ACASurge.  So from the previous peak of 18% during Q3-2013 to a presumed true uninsured rate of 14.5% or lower on April 1, 2014, that implies, again doing simple algebra, 10.8 million more people with insurance on April 1st than on average last fall.






36 replies
  1. 1
    satby says:

    I keep posting these on FB and the more conservative of my friends no longer even acknowledge them; before they argued with me. Smells like victory.

  2. 2
    Roger Moore says:

    But, but, freedum to take risks and let it all hang out! Fast and Furious! Benghazi! NSA! Drones!

  3. 3
    Trollhattan says:

    @satby:
    Isn’t the real message here that ten-millyunnn poor sods have had Obamacare shoved down their freedom throats?

  4. 4
    NorthLeft12 says:

    Not sure how this will be spun off as bad news for Obama, but the Repubs and media will try……..or more likely completely ignore it and hope no one notices.

    My nephew just got a dream job in the states and my brother up here in Canada was all wound up over the trouble he would have getting health care coverage until his company policy kicked in [three months I think]. He was telling me what a disaster that Obamacare was and how everyone hated it and could not enroll…..in short the whole right wing pantheon of lies. I told him to calm down and ask Ben to check out the site and also talk to a local [Pennsylvania] insurer. I am not sure how this would be covered but I was sure he could come up with something for the short term.
    So, this is how widespread and unfortunately effective, the disinformation campaign of the Repubs and their allies in the media has been. It has even convinced Canadians [my brother is by no means alone], although most Canadians always ask…Why don’t they just have a system like ours?

  5. 5
    patrick II says:

    10.8 million more people with insurance on April 1st than on average last fall.

    I assume “people with insurance” includes people added to medicaid but not the under 26 year olds that were added (since that was before last fall) which should also be credited to the ACA.

    How many people would be eligible for medicaid under new aca rules that live in states that have withheld medicaid?

  6. 6
    Mnemosyne says:

    I remember Kay talking about young clients of hers that she used to have to fight to get to buy proper baby seats for their cars. As time went on, though, the young clients started policing each other and it basically became socially unacceptable in those circles to not have a baby seat.

    I suspect (or maybe hope) that, as time goes on, people will have less and less sympathy for those who deliberately go without insurance, especially people with kids.

  7. 7
    Tone in DC says:

    Snide remarks on this subject… not from me.
    This is the best news I’ve heard in a while, and I hope it keeps coming. The ER is not a panacea, and Americans are starting to understand that.

    There are so many people in this country who need to have these numbers etched into their damn corneas. About 27% of the population, as I recall.

  8. 8
    Roger Moore says:

    @Trollhattan:

    Isn’t the real message here that ten-millyunnn poor sods have had Obamacare shoved down their freedom throats?

    I’m not sure. Have 10 million people had Obamacare shoved down their throats, or are 10 million moochers, looters, and thugs lying in an Obamacare hammock instead of working to earn their own health care the way Jesus intended? It may be that there are some freedum lovers who have had healthcare shoved down their throats and some thugs who are loafing in an Obamacare hammock and they add up to 10 million between them. It’s so hard to tell.

  9. 9
    Mason says:

    Satby – the reason no one is arguing with you is because they’re tired of arguing about apples and oranges. Why are we baselining this against the “previous peak” of 18% which happens to coincide with millions of folks (5m?) being dropped from non-Obamacare compliant plans?

    I’m no fan of Obamacare and I’ve stopped arguing about it because a) the two sides are coming from totally separate axioms and b) the numbers are fudgy (for example “selected a plan” vs. “paid a premium”.) I’m just waiting a few months for real data to come out.

  10. 10
    Belafon says:

    @Roger Moore: Most people are less inclined to take risks if there is no net under them.

    (Yes, I know you were being snarky.)

  11. 11
    Roger Moore says:

    @Belafon:

    Most people are less inclined to take risks if there is no net under them.

    Which is the problem. Some of TPTB don’t like little people taking risks; they want compliant worker bees too afraid to challenge the queen bee. Encouraging little people to be risk takers might result in unwanted competition.

  12. 12
    Belafon says:

    @Roger Moore: Exactly what I was thinking when I wrote my reply. Some of the common people might think they can better themselves, and we can’t have that.

  13. 13
    Mnemosyne says:

    @NorthLeft12:

    Is your nephew an American citizen, or will he be here on a work visa? The one Obamacare problem that people have been consistently running into is verifying their citizenship or visa eligibility if they’re not native-born American citizens. He probably will get stuck in a loop if he tries to apply online, and if he’s a non-citizen he may not be eligible for subsidies anyway, so he may want to go straight to an insurance agent to get a short-term policy rather than get frustrated dealing with the website.

  14. 14
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Mason:

    There are also the people who discovered that their insurance company was screwing them and switched companies as soon as they had a chance — I know I saw multiple stories online of people whose insurance companies sent them letters informing them that “Obamacare” was forcing them to raise their premiums by hundreds a month, only to go onto the Exchanges and discover that they could get better coverage for less money from a different company. You know — the free market at work. So those people are probably part of that 10 million as well.

  15. 15
    Richard Mayhew says:

    @patrick II: roughly 5 million people who are Medicaid expansion eligible but live in sadist states.

  16. 16
    Richard Mayhew says:

    @Mason:

    The non-compliant, non-grandfathered plans were not terminated 10/1/13. They were due to terminate on 12/31/13 with replacement effective 1/1/14 with PPACA compliant plans.

  17. 17
    mclaren says:

    The compulsive pathological serial liar Richard Mayhew is once again trying to scam you. Look at the graph of 26 to 64 year olds here, and you can see for yourself that the rate of uninsured Americans was 15.0% in January 2009 when Barack Obama took office.

    Now, in April 2014, the rate of uninsured Americans is higher — the superwealthy lying health care CEO wants you to believe that this is a great triumph, a vast victory.

    Nor does Mayhew mention the sky-high deductibles in the typical Obamacare plan. Nor the unaffordable copayments required, which means that while man low-income people can get prescriptions for medicine, they can’t afford to fill those prescriptions.

    Mayhew is lying to you. He’s trying to present the inadequate band-aid fix misnamed the ACA as a panacea.

    Everyone reading Mayhew’s constant spew of misinformation and spin and distortions should ask themselves how a multimillion-dollar insurance company CEO can spend the time ginning up two of these kinds of misinformational posts per day.

    Sounds like Mayhew doesn’t have much to do, doesn’t it?

    Maybe his paycheck should get slashed. Maybe Mayhew should be forced to work at a real job for a living.

  18. 18
    Richard Mayhew says:

    @mclaren: As I asked in a previous thread, your assumptions about me are wrong:

    McClaren — a couple of questions about your assumptions about me.

    1) Does my family of four qualify for federal subsidies if we had to go on the Exchange. Reminder, I work, my wife works, and I have a second job as a referee.

    What do you think my job title is?

    How many people do I supervise?

    I’m curious as I know you’re assumptions are wrong, but I don’t know by how much

    2) What is the counterfactual as you seem to be neglecting the impact of a massive recession and state level austerity that gutted the legacy Medicaid non-core services to non-core populations might have on insurance rates.

  19. 19
    raven says:

    @Richard Mayhew: Don’t try to talk sense to that ratfucker.

  20. 20
  21. 21
    NorthLeft12 says:

    @Mnemosyne: He is a Canadian citizen with a working visa. I advised my brother to get him to do both, as I have not read anything about short term health care coverage at the Healthcare.gov site. I figured it was worth it for him to look first.

    Thanks for the advice, I will pass it on.

  22. 22
    Trollhattan says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    Mayhew done sunk his battleship, or stole his goat, or something.

  23. 23
  24. 24
    Mason says:

    @Mnemosyne: Yeah, I had a few coworkers say the same thing about our company insurance vs. exchange plans. I’ll spend a few more bucks for better integration with the benefits website, FSA plan, etc etc.

  25. 25
    Roger Moore says:

    @Trollhattan:

    Mayhew done sunk his battleship

    Her. That particular poster is (or at least purports to be) female. Men are already guilty of enough wrongdoing that we can do without being wrongly blamed when it’s finally somebody else’s fault.

  26. 26
    dmsilev says:

    @Richard Mayhew: Don’t bother. Reason and mclaren are opposing concepts.

  27. 27
    Trollhattan says:

    @Roger Moore:

    Never picked up on that. Certainly has the belligerent-dude schtick down, should I offer a golf clap?

  28. 28
    Tone in DC says:

    Never picked up on that. Certainly has the belligerent-dude schtick down, should I offer a golf clap?

    Harumph. Didn’t realize that R. Mayhew had trolls.

  29. 29
    Fair Economist says:

    Probably not trolling Mayhew per se. More likely trolling the ACA itself. These past two weeks it’s become clear that Obamacare is a clear-cut success *and* that the evidence is coming in now, well before the 2014 elections. High exchange signup rates, millions of off-exchange Obamacare policies (that alone is more than the total number of “canceled” policies), historically low increases in insurance premiums, lowered readmission rates for Medicare patient, millions more insured by Gallup polling – we are getting a blizzard of proof that Obamacare has done the country a world of good.

    The trolls’ paymasters are, I suspect, frightened, and the trolls have been ordered to spew invective and nonsense about Obamacare at every opportunity.

  30. 30
    Roger Moore says:

    @Tone in DC:

    Didn’t realize that R. Mayhew had trolls.

    To be fair, mclaren has been around the blog for longer than Mr. Mayhew; she just seems to have picked him as her personal favorite.

  31. 31
    JCJ says:

    @Mason:

    Any response to the dates in the post at # 16?

    “The non-compliant, non-grandfathered plans were not terminated 10/1/13. They were due to terminate on 12/31/13 with replacement effective 1/1/14 with PPACA compliant plans.

    This would seem to be counter to your comment at post #9

    “Satby – the reason no one is arguing with you is because they’re tired of arguing about apples and oranges. Why are we baselining this against the “previous peak” of 18% which happens to coincide with millions of folks (5m?) being dropped from non-Obamacare compliant plans?”

    The previous peak was
    “the previous peak of 18% during Q3-2013 ”

    That would predate the termination date referenced above.

  32. 32
    Tone in DC says:

    @Roger Moore:

    Thanks for the heads up.

    More likely trolling the ACA itself. These past two weeks it’s become clear that Obamacare is a clear-cut success *and* that the evidence is coming in now, well before the 2014 elections. High exchange signup rates, millions of off-exchange Obamacare policies (that alone is more than the total number of “canceled” policies), historically low increases in insurance premiums, lowered readmission rates for Medicare patients, millions more insured – we are getting a blizzard of proof that Obamacare has done the country a world of good.

    Amen to that.

  33. 33
    satby says:

    @JCJ: I just assumed Mason was a troll; the implication that people selected plans they didn’t intend to pay for (aka moochers) was a tell.

  34. 34
    GHayduke (formerly lojasmo) says:

    @Roger Moore:

    “she” also claims to be a liberal, but is spewing right-wing propaganda.

    Interesting subject, McLaren.

  35. 35
    GHayduke (formerly lojasmo) says:

    @satby:

    assumed Mason was a troll

    Safe assumption.

  36. 36
    Dennis Mosebey says:

    Maybe they just stopped arguing with you because they simply got tired of it. It will be years before anyone can say this is a success or failure. How many of the signed up have paid up? That is what counts. You really do not have insurance until you pay the money. Then we see how the coverage goes and if it really makes the customer happy. Victory, nah, sorry not yet.

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