Good news for people who love bad news

The #ACAsurge is pushing enrollment up to at least a confirmed 6.1 million enrollments as of Thursday afternoon.  Charles Gbaba is projecting slightly more than 6.75 million enrollments on the Exchange.  This is good news.

However for there is a headline we’ll see in the last week of April or the first week of May as well as a couple hundred points worth of AFP ads:

Obamacare is costing $7.5 billion more than projected!!!!

And it will be, for once, a true statement from Americans for Prosperity.  The Congressional Budget Office will take their new information on enrollment and run it through their model.  Their model will say that the subsidies for the first year of operation are higher than projected from the last run of the model in February.

The February projection assumed a $9 billion cost reduction mainly because a million people it had previously assumed would have signed up would not have signed up.  Oops!

If the on-Exchange enrollment is in the 6.7 to 6.8 million person range by 3/31/14, the CBO will project that most of those extra people that were not included in the February projection will qualify for subsidies.  This will increase costs, while increasing coverage.  And that is a good thing although we will see way too many bad ads during the hockey play-offs.

38 replies
  1. 1
    eric says:

    Another example of the largest job killing tax increase in the history of democrats reckless deficit-increasing spending spree while giving your tax dollars to people that dont pay their fair share.

    how is that?

  2. 2
    Richard Mayhew says:

    @eric: too wordy and the dog whistle isn’t high enough

  3. 3

    assumed a $9 billion cost reduction

    Against…I’m skeered to get out of the boat by clicking that link?…reduction from…

  4. 4
    Stickler says:

    The enrolled are near (CLANG)!

  5. 5
    El Caganer says:

    @Richard Mayhew: How about strapping young bucks buying T-bones with their health care subsidies?

  6. 6
    Mike in NC says:

    No matter how many people sign up for PPACA or expanded Medicaid, they’ll be painted as looters and moochers by the FOX News watching wingnuts, most of whom are over age 65 and are enrolled in Medicare. Funny how anybody age 64 or under are filthy Socialists, but if you’re over 65 you’re a fabulous super-patriotic American.

  7. 7
    Lizzy L says:

    Wait a minute! Numbers are irrelevant! John Barrasso says so, so it must be true.

    If numbers are irrelevant, then it doesn’t matter how much we spend on subsidies because all those previously uninsured people now have health insurance and can go get their cholesterol and blood sugar levels checked and maybe get statins or metformin mumble-mumble-mumble-that’s-not-what-he meant-mumble….

    Oh. Sorry.

  8. 8
    Chris says:

    Look, Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.

  9. 9
    gordon schumway says:

    Also, too, most of those who signed up will never pay a premium!

  10. 10
    srv says:

    mainly because a million people it had previously assumed would have signed up would not have signed up.

    I don’t understand this. Should one of those woulds be a could or what?

    And isn’t this cheaper than Obama’s Air Force One bill?

  11. 11
    Bubblegum Tate says:

    I know these numbers are just for people who signed up through the exchanges, but am I correct in assuming there isn’t a reliable way to track the total number of people who have gained coverage due to the ACA?

  12. 12

    I have a question. FOX is already hitting the ‘this law allows lazy people who don’t want to work to sponge off the rest of us’ meme hard. I believe this makes it inevitable that the same argument will be openly and widely used in the midterm election. How widely do blacks view that argument as specifically aimed at them?

    EDIT – It IS specifically aimed at them, but I’m interested in how the message is received.

  13. 13
    Woodrow/asim Jarvis Hill says:

    @Frankensteinbeck: We know. Oh, trust me, we’ve heard every angle on “lazy” that’s been tossed out there, as did our parents and grandparents — who were usually the ones to tell us about this.

    Between this and the ongoing voting crap, the GOP’ll be lucky to get African-Americans to vote them as dogcatcher. They’ve screwed the pooch for another generation of voters, they have.

  14. 14
    gian says:

    all I have to say is I f-n wish I could buy on the covered ca website.

    I work for a county out here which can’t seem to get out of it’s own way via corruption scandals.

    our coverage on the county’s plans is way way the hell out of whack with coverage my wife had prior to getting married, and and way way out of whack with the exchange.

    the priciest exchange policy four our family of four the most expensive PPO is roughly $100 less than the cheapest option when you include the county contribution of $440 or so every two weeks (when you multiply by 26 and divide by 12 for a monthly figure.
    roughly the county for aour family of four is 1300 a month including the employer pickup for the cheapest HMO offered. the PPO if they paid us in gold and bitcoins… is roughly 3K a month. seriously. that’s f-n 36,000 a year with the county picking up about 11,500 of it.
    compared with the most expensive on the exchange about 1150 a month to estimate slightly on the high side. the county has a contract for a PPO that is about 2.5 times the cost of the best pan on the exchange.

    someone is getting a kickback, or the county can’t negotiate for crap

  15. 15
    🍀 Martin says:

    So, 6.75 people signed up, but 475 million Americans lost their insurance due to Obamacare, so in a nutshell, Obama just killed off the white race.

  16. 16
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Frankensteinbeck: not an answer to your question, but, yes, the Fox angle has all along been simply this: Obamacare = welfare.

  17. 17
    MikeJ says:

    @FlipYrWhig: Completely unlike federally insured mortgages.

  18. 18
    🍀 Martin says:


    I don’t understand this. Should one of those woulds be a could or what?

    No, it means they originally thought that 7 million would sign up, and had one estimate of costs, then reduced it to 6 million, and reduces the costs, and now that it looks like it might be 7 million again, they have to raise the cost.

    And isn’t this cheaper than Obama’s Air Force One bill?

    No, that’s much more expensive. $7.5 billion is roughly how much it costs for Michelle Obama’s vegetable garden, and that’s not including the cost of our shame that the President is too lazy to go to the A&P.

  19. 19
  20. 20
    Chris says:


    Equally important – how widely do Latinos view this meme as being aimed at them (since it is, also)? My impression is that it’s “fairly widespread, but not quite to the same extent as in the black community.” Of course, the black community is in a category all of its own when it comes to being fucked by American society.

  21. 21
    pseudonymous in nc says:


    Completely unlike federally insured mortgages.

    Or the mortgage interest deduction. Or expensing your “business” lunches.

  22. 22
    Hal says:

    I work in a hospital and just had a call recently from a ER regarding a 21 yo female patient suspected of having breast cancer! She has 0 insurance, 0 primary care. I have no idea if she qualifies for expanded medicaid, or could somehow afford a plan on the exchanges, but I look at that 7.5 billion dollar figure and weigh that against a 21 year old woman who has just been given the worst news of her young life.

    I would like Sen. Bare-asshole and every other like minded thinker to tell this woman to her face that her life is expendable because Obamacare is slavery. Make sure to tell her that if she survives and years later qualifies for insurance despite a pre-existing condition that she’s really just a mooch and a parasite, and convince her to sacrifice her life in the name of freedom loving murikans everywhere.

    Also, I realize a diagnosis like this at 21 is massively uncommon, but it is also a lesson to every young, able bodied American that you just never know. If not cancer, it could be a drunk driver, a slip on the ice, or trip down the stairs. I’ve been to the ER three times in my life and every visit was thousands of dollars. I’m thankful I have insurance through my current and past employers or I don’t know what I would have done.

  23. 23
    🍀 Martin says:

    @pseudonymous in nc: Yeah, but they earned those things.

  24. 24
    MikeJ says:

    @🍀 Martin: For $7.5 billion Obama could go to India for $200 million/day for over a month.

  25. 25
    🍀 Martin says:

    @MikeJ: You think it only cost the $200 million that the White House’s veal pen/chumfunnel press told you? What about the 17 aircraft carriers that were tasked to the Indian Ocean to support the trip? That’s another $76.5 BILLION (with a tax-and-spend B, buddy).

  26. 26
    amk says:


    /gop response.

  27. 27
    Santa Fe says:

    Huzzah! Had to come on here and brag; I just added four more people to those millions, finally completing my enrollment on a sweet, sweet silver plan plus dental for my family. Yeah, the monthly premiums will suck but for the first time since going freelance 10 years ago we’ve got health coverage, despite my pre-existing condition that kept me uninsurable for years.

    Blue Cross Blue Shield New Mexico Community Silver HMO, here we come!

  28. 28
    Good2go says:

    $7.5b = 1/2 of an aircraft carrier, not including the aircraft. Or the $1+ million/day to run the hulk. And our floating boondoggles can be sunk almost at will by cheap Chinese or Russian subs which repeatedly surface in the middle of the AC’s “protecting” fleet…undetected. God bless Amurka!

  29. 29
    Cervantes says:

    @Santa Fe: Hey, that’s really good. I hope the four of you see all the doctors and dentists you need and then enjoy your improved health. Santé!

  30. 30
    Mnemosyne says:


    As I understand it, if you’re in one of the states that accepted the Medicaid expansion, she would be presumed to be eligible for Medicaid and signed up on the spot.

  31. 31
    hitchhiker says:

    Oh, kee-riste.

    Around the time W was appointed president by the SCOTUS, my brilliant & gifted spouse quit his job to become a sole proprietor. We had a couple of young daughters, some savings, no debt, and high hopes for a life that included more time spent on art, writing, kids, and travel.

    A couple of months later he broke his neck, which is when that giant private insurance payment we were making became the one thing we absolutely had to pay. If our insurance ever lapsed for even a single day, he’d never be able to go to a doctor again . . . and for him that really did mean certain death. Paralyzed people need care. They need medications and interventions and lots of shit you don’t even want to think about.

    So we drained our resources to keep that goddamn policy active, even when it cost more than our mortgage. Even though it didn’t cover a ton of stuff that wasn’t optional from our side of the equation. The system punished us for being RESPONSIBLE, PRUDENT, FORESIGHTED, AND FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE.

    If we’d let that policy lapse, it would have destroyed us by making sure we went bankrupt. You can get medicaid if your liquid assets are less than $2,000. You can own one car. You can keep your house. You can’t have any savings (sorry, kids! no college for you!) and you can’t own anything of value. (you don’t need that laptop!)

    So, today, he’s as healthy and productive as he can be. Both our kids went through college and are actively supporting the economy by having jobs and, you know, buying stuff.

    The ACA means that if the worst happens & he loses his job and the coverage lapses, we can just BUY ANOTHER POLICY. They won’t even ask about the 8-inch file that contains his medical records.

    You have to imagine the millions of people like me when you talk about the political ramifications of this . . . an insanely unjust system has been made a little more fair.

    That’s what happened. Thank the FSM, or whoever you thank. Thank the president.

  32. 32
    ruemara says:

    @Frankensteinbeck: We hear it loud and crystal clear.

  33. 33
    maximiliano furtive, formerly known as dr. bloor says:

    during the hockey play-offs

    Thank goodness. For a minute there, I thought you were going to tell us that people would actually see those ads.

  34. 34
    John S. says:

    Speaking of people who love bad news:

    Obamacare is terrible, why won’t the government let me signup for it?!?

  35. 35
    boatboy_srq says:

    @🍀 Martin: Is that every citizen plus every non-citizen resident plus the contents of every fertility clinic?

  36. 36
    Mnemosyne says:


    Fred Clark of Slacktivist had a good illustration of this: a couple of prominent right-wing assholes declared that the First Lady had visited an “abortion” clinic when she went to a community health center in Miami. And what kind of person was Mrs. Obama photographed hugging? You guessed it.

  37. 37
    casswriter says:

    Richard, could you take a look at this column by Sununu, Jr. and let us ignorant folks know how much he’s pulling our legs? From the Boston Globe:

  38. 38
    Richard Mayhew says:

    @casswriter: He can’t count, and he is assuming that there is no future enrollment group of any sort that could happen. Remember by 2017, the CBO projects roughly 36 million people will have insurance directly from Obamacare from either Medicaid expansion, U-26 on parents, or Exchanges.

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