The #ACAsurge is pushing enrollment up to at least a confirmed 6.1 million enrollments as of Thursday afternoon. Charles Gbaba is projecting slightly more than 6.75 million enrollments on the Exchange. This is good news.
However for there is a headline we’ll see in the last week of April or the first week of May as well as a couple hundred points worth of AFP ads:
Obamacare is costing $7.5 billion more than projected!!!!
And it will be, for once, a true statement from Americans for Prosperity. The Congressional Budget Office will take their new information on enrollment and run it through their model. Their model will say that the subsidies for the first year of operation are higher than projected from the last run of the model in February.
The February projection assumed a $9 billion cost reduction mainly because a million people it had previously assumed would have signed up would not have signed up. Oops!
If the on-Exchange enrollment is in the 6.7 to 6.8 million person range by 3/31/14, the CBO will project that most of those extra people that were not included in the February projection will qualify for subsidies. This will increase costs, while increasing coverage. And that is a good thing although we will see way too many bad ads during the hockey play-offs.